Boliden’s 2024 Output Shows Mixed Performance in Zinc and Nickel Production

Boliden

Zinc Production Declines, But Copper and Nickel Output Increase for Sweden's Boliden

Sweden-based mining company Boliden has reported mixed results for its 2024 production across various metals. Zinc output showed a notable decline, while copper and nickel production saw significant increases. This reflects both challenges and successes in the company’s operations, driven by factors such as environmental restrictions and planned maintenance.

Zinc Production Declines, While Copper and Nickel Perform Well

Boliden's zinc-in-concentrate production increased by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 41,680 tonnes. However, the company’s full-year zinc output fell by 16%, totaling 164,108 tonnes, attributed to limited production at the Swedish Garpenberg mine due to environmental permit restrictions. Additionally, maintenance work at the Swedish Boliden Area mine further impacted overall zinc output.

Despite the drop in zinc production, the company managed a 7% increase in zinc production in the fourth quarter, reaching 112,692 tonnes. For the full year, Boliden's total zinc output dropped by just 1% to 453,743 tonnes, a relatively small decrease considering the challenges faced.

Copper and Nickel Show Strong Growth

Boliden reported a 7% increase in its copper-in-concentrate production for Q4 2024, reaching 22,326 tonnes. This brought the total copper-in-concentrate output for the year to 90,692 tonnes, a 1% increase from 2023. However, copper cathode production saw a drop of 29% for the full year, totaling 158,968 tonnes, due to the suspension of cathode production at Sweden's Ronnskar smelter.

On the other hand, copper anode production rose by 6% in Q4, reaching 120,856 tonnes, and the total annual output increased by 11% to 433,778 tonnes. This was supported by higher output at the Ronnskar smelter in the fourth quarter.

Nickel production was one of the standout performers. Boliden’s nickel-in-concentrate output increased by 11% in Q4, reaching 2,849 tonnes. For the full year, nickel production surged by 16% to 11,529 tonnes, driven by higher recovery rates at Finland's Kevitsa mine. Additionally, nickel-in-matte production for the fourth quarter rose by 6%, totaling 11,715 tonnes. Annual nickel-in-matte production increased by 17% to 40,074 tonnes.

Boliden’s Outlook for 2025

While Boliden faced challenges with its zinc production, the company’s increased copper and nickel output in 2024 demonstrates its ability to adapt and meet growing global demand for these critical metals. The strong performance in copper and nickel, alongside ongoing operational improvements, positions Boliden to continue making significant contributions to the global mining sector in 2025.

Boliden Garpenberg Zinc Mine Investment Strengthens Long-Term European Zinc Supply

Boliden

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine investment plans will reinforce one of Europe’s most important zinc supply assets beyond 2030. The Sweden-based metals group will invest SKr4 billion, or about $430 million, in a new hoisting system at Garpenberg to support continued mining of newly identified resources.

The six-year project is designed to sustain production at around 4.5 million tonnes per year. Recent exploration has expanded Garpenberg’s mineral resources and reserves, creating the need for new infrastructure to reach deeper and newly discovered zones.

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine development matters because Europe needs stable domestic sources of zinc concentrates. Zinc remains essential for galvanizing steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction, and renewable energy equipment.

Garpenberg Infrastructure Upgrade Supports Deeper Zinc Mining

The new hoisting system will give Boliden better access to deeper ore zones and help protect long-term output from Garpenberg. The mine already holds an environmental permit for up to 4.5 million tonnes per year, although that permit remains under appeal.

The investment could also create a foundation for future expansion. However, Boliden said any further growth would depend on major additional investments and permitting progress.

The project comes as Garpenberg deals with a near-term production disruption. A seismic event and related rockfall activity halted production on 14 March, causing four lost production days so far. Infrastructure inspections have started, and the shutdown is significant because Garpenberg is Boliden’s most profitable mine.

Odda Expansion and Ronnskar Project Deepen Boliden’s Zinc and Smelting Strategy

Boliden’s zinc strategy also includes the long-delayed Odda zinc smelter expansion in Norway. The 150,000 tonne per year expansion is expected to take its first feed within about five days, with first production to follow shortly after.

The Odda zinc smelter expansion is strategically important because it strengthens Europe’s refined zinc capacity. The roaster and acid plant are now in the final stages of hot commissioning after a difficult project cycle.

Boliden is also investing SKr1.5 billion in a demonstration plant for a new cement replacement product at Ronnskar in Sweden. Construction is expected to start in the second half of 2026, with ramp-up in the first half of 2029 and planned capacity of 280,000 tonnes per year. The process is designed to improve metals recovery and move Boliden closer to waste-free smelting.

At Ronnskar, copper cathode capacity is around 230,000 tonnes per year, and ramp-up is planned for the final quarter of this year. Meanwhile, Boliden expects higher copper grades at Aitik and Kevitsa by 2034, along with improved nickel grades at Kevitsa. However, further Kevitsa expansion remains paused because low nickel prices, higher taxes, and tougher environmental rules have weakened the investment case.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine investment shows that European metals security depends as much on mine infrastructure as on new discoveries. The Odda and Ronnskar updates also show Boliden’s wider strategy: secure concentrates, expand refined metal capacity, and reduce waste across the smelting chain.

Lundin Mining Sells Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan Mines to Boliden for $1.52bn

Lundin Mining

Canada-based Lundin Mining announced the sale of its two major European mining operations — Neves-Corvo in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden — to Swedish Boliden for a total of $1.52 billion. The deal, which is expected to close by mid-2025, will represent Lundin’s complete exit from its operating assets in Europe. The company plans to use the proceeds from this sale to strengthen its balance sheet and fuel its growth strategy in South America.

Key Details of the Deal

The acquisition will significantly boost Boliden’s mining and smelting capacity. Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan produced a combined total of 185,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate and 38,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2023. With this acquisition, Boliden anticipates a sharp increase in its output, especially in zinc, which is expected to rise to 70% of its zinc smelting capacity (up from 35%). For copper, Boliden forecasts an increase in concentrate production to 40% of its copper smelting capacity, from 30%, based on 2023 figures.

In 2023, Neves-Corvo produced 108,812 tonnes of zinc and 33,823 tonnes of copper, while Zinkgruvan produced 76,349 tonnes of zinc and 4,434 tonnes of copper, both in concentrate. This expansion aligns with Boliden's ongoing efforts to boost its mining capabilities in Europe and provide a stronger foundation for its future operations.

Boliden’s Expanding Operations

Following the completion of the transaction, Boliden will operate a total of seven mining areas and five smelters, further solidifying its position as a key player in the European metals market. This acquisition will also contribute to the company’s growing portfolio of critical base metals, including zinc and copper, which are essential for various industrial applications, including the green energy transition.

The Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan mines come with on-site processing facilities, which will enable Boliden to efficiently manage the mining and refining of these crucial metals.

Lundin’s Strategic Shift

For Lundin Mining, the sale marks a strategic shift toward focusing its operations on high-growth regions, particularly in South America, where the company has substantial mining interests. By exiting Europe, Lundin aims to optimize its portfolio and concentrate resources on projects that offer the highest potential for expansion and value creation.

Conclusion

The $1.52 billion deal between Lundin Mining and Boliden highlights the growing consolidation in the mining sector and underscores the importance of strategic acquisitions to secure long-term growth. For Boliden, the acquisition of Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan will enhance its production capacity, positioning the company to meet rising global demand for zinc and copper. Meanwhile, Lundin Mining is set to reorient its focus on South American mining assets, setting the stage for future growth.

Boliden’s Zinc Output Down 35% in 2Q Due to Tara Mine Suspension

Swedish metals producer Boliden reported a significant drop in zinc output for April-June, with a year-on-year decline of over 35%. This reduction is primarily due to the suspension of operations at its Tara zinc mine in Ireland last year.

Boliden's second-quarter zinc in concentrate production totaled 37,627 tonnes, marking a 35.4% decrease from the previous year and a 5% decrease from the previous quarter. Overall zinc production for the first half of the year reached 77,355 tonnes, down 35.2% year-on-year.

The significant year-on-year decline in zinc concentrate production is attributed to the Tara mine — Europe's largest zinc mine with a capacity of over 2 million tonnes per year of ore for zinc and lead concentrate production — being placed on care and maintenance in July 2023. This decision followed financial losses driven by weak zinc prices, high energy costs, and inflation. The mine is anticipated to ramp up production later this year, with output expected to reach 1.8 million tonnes per year from the first quarter of 2025.

Boliden noted a 4% quarterly and 2% yearly increase in global demand for refined zinc.

Boliden operates five mining areas: the Swedish Aitik copper mine, Boliden Area and Garpenberg zinc mines, Finnish Kevitsa copper and nickel mine, and the Tara mine.

Copper production saw a slight year-on-year increase to 22,647 tonnes, while nickel output surged by 41% to 2,980 tonnes due to improved grade and recovery at Kevitsa.

"While I believe that the long-term demand looks very good, in a short-term perspective the market is now characterized by a global concentrate production that does not quite meet the available smelter capacity. This of course affects treatment charges negatively," said Boliden’s Chief Executive Mikael Staffas.

Boliden Zinc Output Surge Reshapes Its 2025 Base Metals Profile

Boliden

Boliden zinc output surge became the clearest feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The company sharply increased mined zinc, while copper also moved higher and nickel stayed broadly stable. Asset restarts and acquisitions drove much of the change. As a result, Boliden zinc output surge has reshaped the company’s base metals profile.

The zinc growth was especially strong. Zinc-in-concentrate production rose 114pc year on year to 350,764t in 2025. The restart of Tara and the additions of Somincor and Zinkgruvan were the main drivers. Therefore, Boliden zinc output surge reflects both portfolio expansion and improved operating availability.

Refined output, however, showed a different pattern. Refined zinc metal production rose only 1pc to 457,345t. That more modest gain highlights the difference between mine growth and smelter expansion timing. Meanwhile, the Odda zinc expansion continued ramping up and supported stronger output in Norway.

Boliden Copper Production Improved, but Smelter Conditions Stayed Mixed

Boliden copper production also improved in 2025, although the gain was smaller than zinc. Copper-in-concentrate output increased 15pc to 104,400t. Somincor contributed added volumes, while Aitik improved later in the year. As a result, Boliden copper production ended the year on a firmer footing.

Aitik’s recovery is particularly important for the 2026 outlook. Copper grades improved toward the end of 2025 after earlier weakness. The company now expects better grades in the second half of 2026, along with higher throughput. Therefore, Aitik remains a key swing factor for Boliden copper production.

Refined copper performance stayed more stable than mined output. Copper cathode production rose 2pc to 162,329t, supported by strong performance at Harjavalta. Copper anode production remained broadly flat, although Ronnskar faced maintenance and operational disruption in the fourth quarter. Consequently, copper smelting conditions remain less straightforward than the mined copper recovery suggests.

Odda Zinc Expansion and Precious Metals Support the 2026 Outlook

The Odda zinc expansion remains one of Boliden’s most important operational themes. Output at Odda rose 10pc to 167,136t in 2025 as the smelter continued ramp-up. Hot commissioning is still ongoing, and new leach product volumes continue to increase. Therefore, Odda could remain a meaningful growth lever into 2026.

Nickel was the weaker area on the refining side. Nickel-in-concentrate output edged up 1pc to 11,627t, but refined nickel matte output at Harjavalta fell 16pc to 33,551t. Process disturbances and maintenance weighed on performance. As a result, Boliden nickel output looked stable upstream but weaker downstream.

The broader margin picture may depend increasingly on by-products. Boliden said stronger gold and silver prices were an important earnings driver in late 2025. That support is expected to remain relevant for smelter margins going forward. Meanwhile, planned 2026 maintenance shutdowns are expected to reduce operating profit, which makes precious metals support even more important.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden’s 2025 result shows how much portfolio structure can change a miner’s growth profile in a single year. Zinc was the headline winner, but the deeper story is that smelter margins may depend as much on by-products and execution as on base metal volume. If Odda and Aitik continue improving, Boliden could enter 2026 with a stronger operating mix than the market first assumes.

Boliden Boosts Zinc Output with Odda Smelter Expansion in Norway

Boliden

Expansion lifts Odda capacity by 75%, reinforcing Boliden’s position in Europe’s zinc market

Swedish mining giant Boliden has completed a major expansion at its Odda zinc smelter in Norway, aiming to boost its zinc output by 75%. This strategic move positions Odda as Europe’s second-largest zinc smelter with a new annual capacity of 350,000 tonnes, up from 200,000 tonnes.

The revamped facility includes a new roasting furnace, a modern sulphuric acid plant, a new tankhouse, and upgraded leaching and purification systems. Boliden emphasized that the enhanced process will extract more metal from each tonne of raw material, thereby reducing waste and improving sustainability.

Despite producing 151,497 tonnes of zinc in 2024—a 7.7% drop from 2023—Boliden attributed the decline to limited electrolysis capacity during the construction phase. Now fully operational, the Odda site is expected to run at full capacity, contributing significantly to Europe’s zinc supply.

This expansion underscores Boliden’s long-term commitment to modernizing critical metal infrastructure while aligning with sustainability goals across the European mining sector.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

Garpenberg Zinc Mine Halt Adds Fresh Pressure to European Zinc Supply

Garpenberg Zinc

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt has added another supply risk to an already tight zinc concentrate market. Boliden suspended mine production at the Swedish operation after seismic activity caused a rockfall and pressure wave on 14 March.

Boliden said seismic activity is normal at Garpenberg, but conditions rose to abnormally high levels late on 14 March. The company evacuated the mine for safety reasons, stopped mining during the evacuation, and suspended concentrator production on 15 March.

The incident also affected workers underground. A pressure wave from the rockfall hit four employees in nearby locations, making safety inspections the immediate priority before any restart.

Garpenberg Disruption Hits a Major European Zinc Asset

Garpenberg is one of Boliden’s most important base metals operations. The mine produced 101,780 tonnes of zinc last year, alongside 38,692 tonnes of lead and 735 tonnes of copper.

That scale makes the Garpenberg zinc mine important for European concentrate availability. Any extended outage could tighten regional feedstock supply and increase pressure on smelters already managing weak treatment charges.

Boliden said output will restart gradually once inspections of infrastructure and underground workings are complete. However, the company has not set a timeframe for resuming production, leaving buyers exposed to uncertainty.

Zinc Concentrate Market Faces Another Supply Constraint

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt comes at a sensitive moment for the zinc market. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelters are competing for limited feedstock while treatment charges stay low.

A temporary disruption at Garpenberg may not change the global balance alone. However, it matters because zinc smelters are already operating in a constrained raw material environment.

The outage also highlights the value of integrated mining and smelting systems. Boliden usually benefits from internal concentrate supply, but even integrated producers remain exposed when mine-level disruptions interrupt feed flows.

For European zinc consumers, the key issue is duration. A short safety-related stoppage would be manageable, but a longer suspension could reinforce concentrate tightness and add pressure to refined zinc supply planning.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Garpenberg shows how fragile zinc supply has become when even operational safety events can carry market significance. In a low-TC environment, every meaningful mine disruption strengthens the advantage of producers with diversified feed sources.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

Zinc Demand and Supply Expected to Rebalance in 2025

Zinc

Recovery in Automotive, Infrastructure, and Green Energy to Boost Zinc Market

Global zinc demand is projected to rise marginally in 2025, driven by steady growth from automotive, infrastructure, and green energy sectors. According to the International Zinc Association (IZA), refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1%, with notable growth in India and the United States, while China and Europe show moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the zinc supply landscape is recovering after a contraction in 2024. ILZSG projects global mine supply will increase by 4.3% this year, supported by new output from the Kipushi, Tara, and Buenavista mines. However, some production sites, including Russia’s Ozernoye and the Red Dog mine in the U.S., may fall short of expectations, highlighting persistent uncertainty in the zinc supply chain.

Smelter expansions are also contributing to a long-term supply rebound. Boliden’s Odda 4.0 project in Norway is on track to reach 350,000 t/yr capacity in the second half of 2025. Additional capacity from the Nordenham smelter in Germany and new Chinese smelters will be partially offset by weaker output from facilities in Canada, Italy, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, the ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing last year’s deficit of 62,000 tonnes.

Automotive and Green Tech to Sustain Long-Term Zinc Growth

The automotive industry remains a key driver of zinc consumption, particularly in galvanised steel for vehicle bodies. Western markets already have high galvanisation rates, while China and India are rapidly catching up. The IZA forecasts a 22% increase in auto-sector zinc use by 2030, translating to an additional 140,000 tonnes of demand.

India’s rapid urban development and China’s robust manufacturing output are also boosting zinc demand across infrastructure and consumer goods. In Europe, public investment in infrastructure and defence, especially in Germany, is expected to support a moderate recovery in zinc usage from late 2025 onward.

Green energy technologies — including wind, solar, and battery systems — are also emerging as major zinc consumers. The IZA projects demand from green tech will exceed 652,000 tonnes by 2030, with more than $1 billion already invested in zinc-based energy storage systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc's supply-demand fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, with rising industrial and green-tech consumption offsetting geopolitical and logistical risks. The rebound in mine and smelter capacity suggests a structurally balanced market may return by 2025. However, long-term resilience will depend on investment in both primary production and recycling infrastructure.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Boliden Garpenberg Zinc Mine to Run at 30% Capacity After Seismic Damage

Boliden, Zn mine

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine output will be sharply reduced after abnormal seismic activity damaged key parts of the Swedish operation. Boliden said it would restart production in the second quarter at about 30% of guided capacity.

The mine was halted on 15 March after seismic activity caused a rockfall and pressure wave. Production is expected to restart at around 100,000 t/month, but the disruption will continue until further notice.

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine production is important for European zinc supply because Garpenberg is one of the region’s key underground zinc assets. A prolonged reduction could tighten concentrate availability and increase attention on mine stability, grade control, and supply reliability.

Lappberget Damage Limits Near-Term Production Recovery

The main operational issue is damage to the upper parts of the Lappberget orebody. This area accounts for around 70% of Garpenberg’s production, making the seismic event highly material for Boliden’s zinc output.

Boliden said production in the most affected part of the mine is not expected to resume this year. Inspections are still ongoing, and the company will operate Garpenberg at reduced capacity until it has clearer visibility on safety and mining conditions.

The lower output profile also comes with a slight expected deterioration in average zinc grade. This means the disruption affects not only tonnage but also the quality and efficiency of mined ore.

European Zinc Market Faces Fresh Supply Risk

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine guidance now points to output running at just 30% of the mine’s 3.7mn t/yr guided capacity. This creates a meaningful supply risk for European zinc concentrate flows, especially if the reduced operating rate lasts longer than expected.

The disruption also highlights the vulnerability of underground mining operations to seismic instability. Even profitable and well-established mines can face sudden production constraints when access to major orebodies is restricted.

For zinc buyers and smelters, the key issue will be how long Garpenberg remains limited and whether alternative concentrate supply can offset the shortfall. The market will also watch for updates on inspections, rehabilitation work, and any revised production guidance from Boliden.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Garpenberg’s setback shows that mine safety and geotechnical risk can quickly become supply-chain issues. For Europe’s zinc market, the disruption adds another reminder that regional metal security depends on operational resilience, not only reserve size.