Refined zinc market surplus narrows sharply in 1H 2025

Zinc Mine

The Refined zinc market surplus narrowed dramatically in the first half of 2025. The Refined zinc market surplus fell to 47,000t, down 81% year on year. This Refined zinc market surplus reflects stronger demand and constrained smelting output.

Supply moves diverge between mines and smelters

Global mined zinc output increased by 6.3% to 6.17mn t. Australia, China, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, and the DRC led gains. Europe also grew on Vares, Ozernoye, and Tara’s restart. However, refined zinc production fell by 2.1% to 6.64mn t. Declines in Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Japan weighed on output. Toho Zinc’s Anakka closure reduced Japanese supply. Meanwhile, Korea’s Seokpo smelter suspension tightened Asia’s refined balance. Europe partly offset the losses as Boliden expanded Norway’s Odda smelter.

End-use demand steadies as trade flows shift

Global zinc consumption edged up 0.9% to 6.60mn t. China, India, and Europe supported galvanizing demand. Brazil and the US softened. China’s zinc concentrate imports fell 48.3% to 1.22mn t. Therefore, domestic mined and recycled supply likely substituted imports.

Prices responded to tightening fundamentals. LME zinc averaged $2,772.60/t in 1H 2025, up 3.7% year on year. The global refined lead market also posted a small surplus. Refined lead production reached 6.57mn t versus consumption of 6.55mn t. As a result, lead showed a 21,000t surplus.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc’s surplus compression signals a market closer to balance than headlines imply. Persistent smelter constraints, modest demand growth, and evolving Chinese import patterns support a firmer floor. Watch European smelter run-rates, Seokpo’s status, and construction demand in India for the next leg.