Glencore Q1 Cobalt and Copper Production Shows Divergent Trends in Volatile Market

Cobalt

Cobalt Output Soars While Copper and Nickel Face Steep Declines

Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production revealed mixed results, highlighting the challenges of commodity volatility and mine-specific dynamics. The company’s cobalt output surged 44% year-on-year to 9,500 tonnes, driven by improved grades at its Mutanda mine in the DRC. In contrast, copper production dropped 30% to 167,900 tonnes due to lower grades and recovery rates at Chilean operations like Collahuasi and Antapaccay.

Zinc Rises, Nickel and Ferro-Chrome Falter

Meanwhile, nickel production fell 21% to 18,800 tonnes, largely due to the Koniambo mine transition in New Caledonia. On the positive side, zinc production rose 4% to 213,600 tonnes, supported by strong output from Antamina in Peru and Australian operations. Ferro-chrome production declined 7%, with Glencore citing market-driven management decisions and high energy costs in South Africa.

Cobalt Supply Tightness and Copper Recovery Outlook

The Q1 performance positions Glencore to benefit from tight cobalt supply, especially following the DRC’s export suspension that lifted China’s cobalt hydroxide prices. However, copper’s poor start may weigh on H1 earnings, though CEO Gary Nagle anticipates a rebound in output later in the year. Glencore maintained full-year guidance for all core metals, signaling confidence in operational recovery despite short-term setbacks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The latest Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production figures reflect a market caught between supply shocks and operational setbacks. While cobalt shows strength amid geopolitical friction, copper’s rebound will be crucial for sustaining Glencore’s broader portfolio performance in 2024.

Copper Wire Producer to Acquire Hussey Copper

International Wire Group

Hussey Copper’s Market Role

Copper wire producer International Wire Group (IWG) has agreed to acquire Hussey Copper from KPS Capital Partners. The deal, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, will expand IWG’s reach across key copper markets. Although financial details remain undisclosed, the move is expected to reshape competition within North America’s copper sector.

Hussey Copper operates three facilities, including a bar mill and fabrication plant in Kentucky and its headquarters in Pennsylvania. The company produces copper and copper-nickel alloys in strip, sheet, and plate forms, while also offering casting, rolling, annealing, and plating services. Its role as a major busbar supplier makes it essential to electrical infrastructure and industrial supply chains.

Strategic Value for IWG

The acquisition will boost IWG’s position in electrical infrastructure, data centers, and electric vehicles. These sectors are driving global copper demand as electrification expands worldwide. By integrating Hussey Copper’s capabilities, IWG is set to meet surging demand while strengthening its role across the copper value chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal highlights the copper industry’s consolidation as energy transition markets accelerate demand. For IWG, the integration of Hussey Copper provides not only scale but also critical alignment with electrification-driven growth sectors.

Anglo Asian Begins Ore Extraction from Gilar Copper Deposit in Azerbaijan

Anglo Asian

First ore mined from high-potential Gilar copper deposit

Anglo Asian Mining has started ore extraction from the Gilar copper deposit, part of its Gedabek site in Azerbaijan. The company mined 1,267 tonnes of ore with an average copper grade of 0.65% in its first underground operation. This marks a major milestone for Anglo Asian’s 2023–2028 growth plan focused on boosting copper and gold output. As a result, the Gilar site is expected to play a key role in the firm’s long-term strategic expansion.

According to resource estimates, Gilar holds 6.1 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 0.88% copper. This translates to roughly 54,000 tonnes of contained copper, based on a December 2023 technical review.

Production ramp-up targets monthly ore output of up to 60,000 tonnes

The company plans to gradually increase ore mining to 50,000–60,000 tonnes per month in the coming months. This development is part of phase one of Anglo Asian’s strategic plan, which includes opening three new mines by 2026. Gilar is the first of these new assets to begin production, showcasing the company’s shift toward copper-focused growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo Asian’s launch of Gilar production signals the company’s pivot to copper amid global demand for energy transition metals. With resource-rich ore and solid ramp-up targets, Gilar may become a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s modern mining industry. As copper’s strategic value grows, mid-tier players like Anglo Asian are positioning for outsized influence in regional supply chains.

Copperwood mine grant positions Highland Copper for 2026 decision

Highland Copper

Production scale and timeline

The Copperwood mine grant nomination advances Highland Copper’s project financing in Michigan. Its township nominated the project for a $50mn state construction grant. A separate $50mn MEDC application remains under review. However, total public support will not exceed $50mn.

Copperwood targets 29,000 tonnes per year of copper concentrate for 10.7 years. The site sits in Michigan’s Western Upper Peninsula. Management plans a construction decision in 2026. Therefore, early infrastructure funding could support critical path work.

Grant structure and regional impact

The funding structure prioritizes regional infrastructure investments. Highland stated its combined requests will not exceed $50mn. As a result, public funds remain capped across programs. The Copperwood mine grant could accelerate utilities and access upgrades.

Market context favors projects that advance shovel-ready timelines. Meanwhile, copper demand supports grid, EV, and industrial expansions. Project success will hinge on permitting, construction logistics, and concentrate marketing. Investors should monitor approvals and the Copperwood mine grant disbursement schedule.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This targeted grant could de-risk early works and unlock contractor mobilization. Execution discipline on schedule and infrastructure delivery will determine momentum into 2026.

Copper Trade’s Future Rests on Traders Amid Supply Chain Strains

Mercuria Energy Trading

Growing Global Demand, Concentrate Deficit, and Strategic Investments Highlight Traders’ Rising Influence in Copper Markets

The role of traders in the global copper market is becoming increasingly critical, especially as supply chain disruptions deepen. At the 2025 Mining Indaba in Cape Town, industry experts emphasized that a growing shortage of copper concentrates is driving this trend, despite sufficient metal availability in the short term.

Supply Disruptions and Demand Growth Attract Trading Houses

Copper concentrate deficits are expected to impact the refined copper market more significantly in the coming years. According to Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research at Mercuria Energy Trading, traders will fill essential gaps as disruptions rise and demand accelerates. He stated that countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are taking active steps to trade minerals directly, enhancing regional participation in the global market.

Mercuria’s December agreement with Zambia to launch a metals trading arm exemplifies how nations are seeking to gain value from local copper production. Zambia, one of Africa’s largest copper producers, aims to ramp up output to 3 million tonnes by 2030. Snowdon stressed that similar strategic partnerships will bring expertise and foster industry growth.

Gulf and Private Equity Eye Strategic Copper Assets

Beyond Africa, interest is growing from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which are diversifying away from fossil fuels. Even small-scale investments in copper assets by these nations reflect a broader shift towards clean energy supply chains, where copper plays a pivotal role. Despite this enthusiasm, Graeme Train of Trafigura noted that private equity involvement remains relatively nascent, though capital flow has increased in recent years.

Geopolitical Risks Pose Challenges for Copper Investment

While traders are positioned to benefit from increasing market complexities, global political tensions could threaten progress. Panellists warned that the ongoing US-China trade conflict, combined with rising tariffs and inflation risks, could stall key copper projects. Notably, about 75% of global copper ventures involve Chinese equity, raising vulnerability amid geopolitical strain.

In conclusion, traders will likely become central to navigating the copper market's evolving landscape. Their ability to manage risk, bridge supply chain gaps, and mobilize capital will define the next phase of copper’s global trade dynamics.

Dong-A Special Metal Pioneers with CCAW Production Amid Market Shifts

Copper Clad Aluminium Wire (CCAW)

Dong-A Special Metal has marked a significant innovation in the metals industry by initiating production of Copper Clad Aluminium Wire (CCAW), responding strategically to the surging and fluctuating copper prices. This new venture aims to establish a robust presence beyond traditional metal forms like bar stock and ingots, focusing instead on specialized wire products.

Advancing with Copper and Aluminum Integration

The Korean-based company's success in producing CCAW—a bimetallic product that melds the lightness of aluminum with the conductivity of copper—is positioning it as a cost-effective alternative to pure copper wires. CCAW is over 50% lighter and costs about half as much as copper while achieving over 90% of copper's conductivity. This makes it suitable for high-frequency applications and a potential replacement for copper in global industries such as electronics, where it is used in fan motors, transformers, TVs, and refrigerators.

Particle Analysis

The shift comes at a time when many industries are seeking alternatives to expensive copper, with aluminum emerging as a viable substitute despite its lower electrical and thermal conductivity. Dong-A Special Metal move to produce CCAW is particularly significant as it provides a Korean-made source amidst high tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the Trump administration, underlining the importance of diversifying supply sources.

Expanding Product Lines and Markets

Furthermore, Dong-A Special Metal is expanding its product range to include commercial production of titanium and nickel wires, set to begin this year. These products will be available in dimensions ranging from 14mm to 60mm for titanium and 2mm to 18mm for nickel, targeting specialized sectors such as aerospace, defense, shipbuilding, and chemicals. The company has also equipped itself to produce 1,000 tons of CCAW annually, ranging from 2.6mm to 16mm in diameter, with a copper content of 15%.

The company representative stated plans to utilize the same facilities for titanium and nickel alloy (Invar, Inconel 625, 718) wire products, intending to supply these critical materials to key industries involved in national defense and advanced technology applications.

Financial Moves and Future Directions

Dong-A Special Metal has recently chosen Korea Investment & Securities as the lead manager for its upcoming IPO, accelerating its growth strategy through funds raised from various investors, including BNW Investment, which has invested in Ecopro since 2022. The total investment secured so far is $23.48 million, setting a solid foundation for further expansion and innovation.

Ivanhoe Electric Secures $825mn EXIM Loan Interest for Arizona Copper Project

Ivanhoe Mining

Focus Keyphrase: Ivanhoe Electric copper project

Ivanhoe Electric copper project in Arizona has moved closer to realization with a $825mn financing interest from the US EXIM Bank. The proposed 15-year loan would support the development of the Santa Cruz copper mine, enhancing domestic critical mineral supply chains.

The company stated that additional funding will be explored following the release of its preliminary feasibility study in June. This study is expected to bolster Ivanhoe's efforts to secure further investment and support from public and private stakeholders.

EXIM’s “Make More in America” Backs Strategic Mineral Projects

The EXIM Bank’s commitment falls under the "Make More in America" initiative, aimed at reinforcing US industrial security. The loan would help accelerate production of domestically sourced copper—vital for defense, electrification, and clean energy.

Notably, EXIM has already funded other critical minerals projects, such as the $400mn facility for US Strategic Metals in Missouri. Such projects align with broader national strategies to de-risk supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign raw material imports.

Ivanhoe’s Copper Ambitions Tied to National Security

If completed, the Ivanhoe Electric copper project would become a cornerstone of the US push for self-reliance in key industrial inputs. Copper demand is projected to grow due to renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure needs.

Therefore, Ivanhoe’s Santa Cruz site in Arizona is well-positioned to meet rising demand while benefiting from favorable policy tailwinds. The company emphasized its intent to partner further with public programs and private investors to deliver long-term supply resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s Santa Cruz project reflects Washington’s sharpened focus on domestic critical mineral security. Copper’s strategic importance ensures continued public-private partnerships, especially as electrification reshapes industrial priorities in North America.

Gunnison Copper first cathode production boosts US copper supply ambitions

Gunnison Copper

Gunnison Copper first cathode production marks a key milestone for US domestic copper supply. The company produced its first copper cathode at the Johnson Camp Mine in Arizona in late August, ahead of schedule. As a result, the Gunnison Copper first cathode production strengthens US efforts to secure critical minerals for energy transition.

Early ramp-up at Johnson Camp Mine underpins new US copper source

Gunnison Copper first cathode production follows the successful start of solvent extraction and electrowinning operations. The company began running its SX plant and EW circuit in August, using run-of-mine ore from the Arizona site. Therefore, the project now moves from development into early ramp-up, which often proves pivotal for leaching projects.

The company expects to produce 25mn lbs per year of copper cathode, equal to about 11,300 tonnes. This scale does not rival major Chilean or Peruvian mines, yet it still matters for US niche supply. Meanwhile, the focus on finished cathode production rather than concentrates aligns with growing demand from North American smelters and fabricators.

Funding support highlights the broader strategic value of this new copper stream. The Johnson Camp Mine received backing from Nuton, a Rio Tinto venture focused on innovative copper technologies. In addition, the project secured $13.9mn in US Department of Energy tax credits in January to support domestic copper production.

Strategic context for US energy transition and critical minerals policy

The Gunnison Copper first cathode production arrives as policymakers push for more resilient US copper supply chains. Copper demand continues to rise across electric vehicles, renewable power and grid upgrades. Therefore, new SX–EW operations like Johnson Camp help reduce dependence on imported copper units.

Federal tax credits signal Washington’s willingness to support qualifying critical mineral projects. As a result, projects such as Johnson Camp can de-risk early capital phases and accelerate commissioning schedules. However, Gunnison Copper must still deliver consistent production performance, maintain environmental compliance and manage operating costs in Arizona’s competitive mining landscape.

For investors and copper buyers, the project offers modest but meaningful additional US cathode volumes. It may also showcase Nuton and Rio Tinto’s broader technology and partnership model for brownfield and mid-scale assets. Over time, similar projects could play a larger role in regional copper balance and contract pricing dynamics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gunnison Copper’s first cathode production at Johnson Camp illustrates how smaller US projects can still punch above their weight in policy terms. While volumes remain limited, the combination of Nuton funding and DOE tax support shows how technology and incentives now shape copper growth. Market participants should watch ramp-up performance closely, since SX–EW reliability will determine whether this asset becomes a durable pillar of US cathode supply.

Argentina copper mine investment accelerates under Rigi incentive framework

Argentina copper mine

Argentina copper mine investment is entering a new phase under the Rigi incentive framework. The approval of McEwen Copper’s $2.7bn Los Azules project signals that Argentina copper mine investment is now central to the Milei government’s economic strategy. As a result, Argentina copper mine investment is being positioned as a key pillar for both fiscal reform and long-term export growth.

Rigi turns Los Azules into a flagship Argentina copper mine investment

The Los Azules project is the first copper mine approved under Argentina’s large-scale investment regime, Rigi. The scheme offers a 25pc tax rate instead of 35pc, 30 years of legal stability and exemption from import duties on capital goods. These incentives are designed to de-risk Argentina copper mine investment amid currency volatility and political uncertainty. Construction at Los Azules could begin as early as 2026, subject to permitting approvals. The mine is expected to produce about 175,000 t/yr of copper, placing it among the country’s most significant future producers. This scale matters for Argentina’s balance of payments, because copper exports can provide stable hard-currency revenues.

Copper anchors Argentina’s wider energy and mining investment push

The Los Azules approval is part of a broader Rigi pipeline that already totals $15.7bn in committed projects. The portfolio spans two solar plants, two lithium mines, an oil pipeline, an LNG facility and a steel mill. Together, these projects illustrate how copper, lithium and energy infrastructure are being bundled into a single strategic investment narrative. The government is targeting at least $50bn in energy investment and another $50bn in mining by 2027. That timeline aligns with president Javier Milei’s current term and his wider macroeconomic adjustment agenda. At the same time, Argentina is courting external financial support, including a potential $20bn currency swap backed by the US government. Stable capital inflows are critical to sustain Rigi and reassure foreign mining investors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Los Azules shows how targeted tax stability and customs relief can unlock large-scale copper capex even in a risky macro environment. The challenge will be execution: permitting, infrastructure delivery and social licence will determine whether this project hits its 2026–27 window. For the global copper market, Argentina’s success or delay at Los Azules will shape future supply expectations in the second half of the decade.

NIU Group Copper Acquisition Expands Footprint in Chilean Mining Sector

Minera Tres Valles

The NIU Group copper acquisition of Chilean producer Minera Tres Valles (MTV) signals a bold entry into South America’s copper supply chain. MTV currently produces 5,000 tonnes per year (t/yr) of copper, with plans to scale to 13,000–15,000 t/yr by 2026. NIU aims to capitalize on copper's critical role in the global energy transition.

MTV’s Growth Potential Attracts Strategic Investment

NIU Group, a European investment firm founded by Austrian investor Cevdet Caner, has committed to expanding MTV's operations. MTV holds 460km² of mining rights in Chile’s copper-rich region, of which only 5% has been explored. Proven and probable reserves currently stand at 8.2 million tonnes. NIU will inject capital to ramp up development and increase production volumes.

The acquisition includes MTV’s integrated processing plant, offering NIU an efficient and scalable platform to supply growing global copper demand. Copper remains essential for electrification infrastructure, renewable energy systems, and electric vehicles, aligning with NIU's energy transition investment strategy.

NIU Sets Sights on Global Mining Expansion

While the NIU Group copper acquisition in Chile marks a key step, the firm plans to broaden its mining asset portfolio globally in 2025. This positions NIU to secure upstream materials critical to energy transformation initiatives in Europe and beyond.

The acquisition reflects growing investor interest in mining assets, particularly those supporting low-carbon technologies. Financial terms of the MTV deal were not disclosed, but the strategic intent is clear: control supply chains for critical minerals amid tightening global competition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The NIU Group copper acquisition illustrates how private capital is targeting upstream resources to gain influence over decarbonization supply chains. MTV’s underexplored reserves and scalable output offer long-term upside aligned with global copper demand trajectories.

Southern Copper Resumes Tia Maria Project in Peru with Revised Investment

Southern Copper

Southern Copper, a subsidiary of Grupo Mexico, is moving forward with its Tia Maria copper mining project in Peru after a delay of several years due to community opposition. The company has revised its initial investment estimate to $1.8 billion, up from the original $1.4 billion, signaling a renewed commitment to this controversial project.

Tia Maria: A Controversial Project Set to Boost Copper Production

The Tia Maria project, located in the Arequipa region of Peru, is expected to produce around 120,000 metric tonnes of copper annually. Despite its potential, the project has faced significant opposition due to concerns over its environmental impact, which were raised in its original 2014 environmental impact statement. In response to these concerns, Southern Copper has made several changes, including updating the environmental study. This update was approved in November 2023 and includes the decision to abandon plans for a desalination plant as the primary source of water for the project.

The project’s first phase of construction, scheduled for this year, will focus on developing essential infrastructure such as roads, access points, railways, and temporary encampments. A 59km enclosure has already been established around the main property.

Economic Impact and Future Prospects

Once fully operational in 2027, Tia Maria is projected to generate significant economic benefits. The project will create 764 direct jobs and an additional 4,800 indirect jobs. Southern Copper expects to export $17.5 billion worth of copper over the first 20 years of the project’s operation. This production boost comes at a time when Peru continues to be one of the world’s top copper producers.

Southern Copper's commitment to the Tia Maria project follows a positive year for the company. In 2024, the company reported a record $11.4 billion in net sales and a profit of $3.4 billion. This growth was driven by higher copper prices and increased sales of molybdenum, zinc, and silver.

Challenges at Los Chancas

In addition to Tia Maria, Southern Copper is developing the Los Chancas project in the Apurimac region, which is expected to produce 130,000 tonnes of copper and 7,500 tonnes of molybdenum annually once operational in 2031. However, the project has been delayed due to illegal mining activities in the area. Southern Copper is working closely with Peruvian authorities to address this issue and plans to restart environmental impact, hydrogeological, and geotechnical studies once the situation is resolved.

Teck Lowers Annual Copper Guidance on Quebrada Blanca Constraints

Teck Resources

Teck lowers annual copper guidance after setbacks at Quebrada Blanca. The miner lowers annual copper guidance to 470,000–525,000t. As a result, Teck lowers annual copper guidance to reflect mill downtime and tailings repairs.

Guidance cut and quarterly production snapshot

Teck trims Quebrada Blanca guidance to 210,000–230,000t. The prior range was 230,000–270,000t. Repairs and tailings limits slowed the ramp-up. Meanwhile, group second-quarter copper output slipped to 109,000t. Antamina production fell about 45pc on the year. Three other copper assets increased output in the quarter. Copper sales eased 2pc to 102,000t.

Longer-term projects and financial mix

Teck extends Highland Valley Copper’s life to 2046. The approval supports long-term Canadian supply resilience. Zinc in concentrate rose 11pc to 169,000t. Refined zinc fell 22pc to 51,000t. Quarterly revenue increased 13pc to C$2bn. However, profit narrowed to C$101mn from C$385mn.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s reset looks prudent given Chilean constraints and Peru headwinds. Watch tailings upgrades and repair milestones for 2026 recovery signals.

Fatality at Copper Plant Halts Operations, Ero

A light-duty truck collision at Canadian mining company Ero Copper's Brazilian copper facility resulted in the death of one employee and temporarily suspended operations. The company confirmed the employee's death after the accident at the Caraiba facility.

The company immediately suspended operations, but they are set to resume today, it added.

A second employee is in critical condition. The details of the incident are under investigation.

Caraiba processes ore into 32-35% copper concentrate from its mill, drawing on the nearby Pilar and Vermelhos underground mines and the Surubim open pit mine.

Ero estimated copper in concentrate production for the mine at 42,000-47,000 metric tons for 2024, which would represent as much as a 7.2% increase from the 43,857 tons produced in 2023.

IFC to Provide $400mn Loan for Reko Diq Copper Project

Barrick Mining

IFC Expands Support for Barrick’s Pakistan Development

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will commit an additional $400mn to Barrick Gold’s Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan. This new loan supplements a previously proposed $300mn A-loan, strengthening financing for one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects globally.

Phased Development of Major Copper Supply Source

Reko Diq’s first development phase is estimated at $3bn, with Barrick contributing $1.4bn–1.7bn in equity. Phase one is scheduled to produce 240,000 t/yr of refined copper by 2028. A second phase, planned for 2029–33, would nearly double output to 460,000 t/yr. Barrick expects external funding and IFC’s involvement to secure the capital required for long-term project growth.

The Reko Diq project represents a critical investment in Pakistan’s mining sector, offering strategic copper supply at a time of accelerating global demand for clean energy and electrification. Barrick’s phased approach and IFC’s loan underline the project’s role in both economic development and global supply chain stability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IFC’s decision signals growing confidence in copper’s central role in the energy transition. By backing Reko Diq, IFC not only supports Pakistan’s mining ambitions but also secures long-term copper supply for global markets. The project’s success could reshape South Asia’s mining landscape while reducing reliance on traditional copper hubs.

Pathfinder Tonopah Secures $896mn EXIM Loan Interest for Copper Project in Nevada

Copper Project in Nevada

Financing to Boost US Copper Supply Chain

US mine developer Pathfinder Tonopah has received a letter of interest from the US Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for up to $896 million in financing to advance its Nevada copper-molybdenum project. The potential funding would support construction of mining and processing facilities, enabling the company to scale operations and strengthen domestic copper production capacity.

The project is expected to produce over 463 million pounds of copper cathode in its first 12 years of operation. This substantial output aligns with growing US demand for copper, driven by renewable energy expansion, electric vehicle infrastructure, and grid modernization.

Strategic Role in National Security and Supply Resilience

The potential loan falls under EXIM’s “Make More in America” initiative, which aims to fortify domestic supply chains for sectors critical to national security. Copper’s role as an essential industrial metal in electrical systems, defense technologies, and clean energy makes it a strategic focus.

Pathfinder Tonopah joins a growing list of critical mineral developers receiving EXIM support, including Ivanhoe Electric ($825mn loan in April 2024) and US Strategic Metals ($400mn loan in August 2024). These investments reflect a broader policy shift toward securing reliable domestic sources of key industrial inputs.

Outlook for Nevada’s Copper-Molybdenum Development

While specific loan terms have not been disclosed, the scale of potential financing underscores the project’s significance for US resource independence. Nevada’s favorable mining environment and existing infrastructure position Pathfinder Tonopah to fast-track development once funding is secured.

If completed as planned, the mine could not only meet domestic copper needs but also contribute to global market stability, reducing reliance on imports from politically sensitive regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The scale of EXIM’s interest signals strong federal commitment to reshoring critical mineral supply chains. If finalized, this financing could mark a pivotal moment for US copper independence, positioning Nevada as a strategic hub in the energy transition.

US critical minerals list expands: copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver added

US Critical Minerals

The US critical minerals list expanded to 54 minerals in the new USGS draft. The US critical minerals list now includes copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, and silver. As a result, the US critical minerals list reshapes policy, permitting, and supply-chain priorities across energy, defense, and manufacturing.

What changed in the draft and why it matters

USGS removed arsenic and tellurium because supply-chain risks have eased. However, the agency added copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, and silver. These additions align with domestic manufacturing needs and national security goals. The Energy Act of 2020 requires triennial updates. Therefore, the draft signals a structured, risk-based refresh. Copper’s inclusion elevates grid, EV, and data-center wiring. Meanwhile, silver and silicon support solar, power electronics, and semiconductors. Rhenium targets superalloys in aerospace and defense. Lead anchors batteries and critical industrial uses. Potash underpins fertilizers and food security, which intersect with energy transition metals through logistics.

What could come next: uranium, coal, and update cadence

USGS invited industry feedback on whether to include uranium, metallurgical coal, or other minerals. It also asked if annual updates are preferable to three-year cycles. As a result, planning horizons could shorten, affecting investment timing and offtake strategies. President Donald Trump directed USGS on 20 January to consider uranium in the 2025 list. Meanwhile, several assessed materials—such as molybdenum, phosphates, helium, and gold—did not make the cut. Therefore, the draft narrows focus to minerals with acute vulnerability and strategic leverage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bringing copper onto the list is the headline move. It strengthens the case for streamlined permits, midstream incentives, and recycling scale-up. If USGS shifts to annual updates, treasury, traders, and OEMs must adapt faster to policy-driven risk signals.

Rio Tinto’s Nuton Invests $35 Million in McEwen Copper’s Los Azules Project

Rio Tinto’s

Rio Tinto’s Nuton venture, known for its innovative leaching technology to enhance copper recovery, has invested $35 million in McEwen Copper, a subsidiary of McEwen Mining, to advance the Los Azules copper project in Argentina. The funds will support a feasibility study for Los Azules, slated to commence in the first half of 2025.

Key Details on the Los Azules Project

• Location: San Juan Province, Argentina.
• Production Goal: 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode with 99.9% purity starting in 2027.
• Project Duration: Expected to operate for at least 33 years.

Investment Breakdown

This funding forms part of a $70 million financing round for Los Azules:

• First Tranche: Included $14 million from McEwen Mining and $5 million from CEO Rob McEwen.
• Second Tranche: Featured Nuton’s $35 million investment and $2 million from two other investors.

Following this second tranche, McEwen Copper has raised a total of $56 million, with Nuton acquiring a 17.2% stake in the company on a fully diluted basis.

Strategic Importance

The investment underscores Rio Tinto’s growing focus on leveraging leaching technology to improve copper recovery efficiency, addressing rising global demand for high-purity copper. The Los Azules project is set to play a pivotal role in bolstering sustainable copper production, essential for renewable energy systems and electric vehicles.

Copper Market Faces Volatility and Uncertainty in 2025

Copper

The U.S. copper market is poised for continued volatility in 2025, influenced by Chinese demand trends, electric vehicle (EV) rollouts, and shifting U.S. monetary policy. Copper prices surged in mid-2024, reaching a record high of $5.106/lb on May 21, before retreating to an average of $4.33/lb in the second half of the year.

Market participants expect these factors, along with potential import tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump, to shape price movements throughout 2025. Trade tensions, interest rate decisions, and inflationary pressures will further add to the market’s uncertainty.

Macroeconomic Pressures and Strong Dollar Impact

A strong U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy shifts remain key concerns for copper traders. The DXY dollar index surged to 108.2 on December 19, the highest since November 2022, following signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rate cuts in 2025 may be limited to 50 basis points rather than the previously expected 100 basis points.

A stronger dollar generally weakens copper demand, making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. Additionally, tariffs and inflationary pressures could force the Fed to slow rate cuts or even increase interest rates, further strengthening the dollar and weighing on copper prices.

Trade policy uncertainty remains a major factor, as Trump’s proposed import tariffs could prompt retaliatory measures, raising costs and curbing global copper demand.

EV Market Uncertainty Weighs on Copper Demand

While the renewable energy sector—including wind and solar projects—is expected to support copper demand, the EV sector faces growth concerns. Automakers such as GM, Ford, and Toyota have delayed full EV rollouts, opting to shift toward hybrids.

Each EV requires approximately 183 lbs of copper, nearly four times more than a traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. A slower EV adoption rate could dampen near-term copper demand growth, despite the long-term outlook remaining strong.

Diverging Copper Price Forecasts for 2025

Market analysts are split on copper’s 2025 price outlook, though most agree that the market will likely enter a deficit by 2026 due to growing renewable energy demand.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts $4.61/lb in 2025, citing potential stimulus-driven upside risks and trade-related downside risks.

• Citigroup projects a lower $3.97/lb, while Bank of America estimates $4.28/lb.

• UBS predicts a range of $4.76-$4.99/lb, signaling a bullish outlook compared to other institutions.

With geopolitical uncertainties, currency fluctuations, and shifting industrial demand, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal transition year for the copper market.

Copper Rally Near Its Peak: Goldman Sachs Sees Sentiment Outrunning Fundamentals

Goldman Sachs

Copper rally near its peak now reflects stretched positioning more than tightening supply. Copper rally near its peak follows record prices above $11,200/t this week. Copper rally near its peak should fade toward a $10,000–11,000/t range, Goldman Sachs says.

Copper’s latest spike was driven by bullish sentiment and a softer dollar. However, Goldman argues fundamentals do not justify a lasting breakout. The bank highlights a modest surplus in the physical market today. Therefore, it expects consolidation as speculative flows recede. Investors should watch inventories and import premiums closely.

Goldman still sees solid support around $10,000–11,000/t. The range reflects firm demand outside the US and improving China views. However, any surge above that band should be short-lived. Positioning is “stretched” at the five-year 99th percentile on LME. As a result, tactical risk increases for long positions.

Visible inventories have risen by about 700,000t this year. The stock build is led by regions outside the US. Meanwhile, the market sits in a visible surplus near 400,000t year to date. Therefore, price gains lack confirmation from stock draws. History shows rallies fade without inventory tightness.

Mine disruptions amplified the bullish narrative this quarter. Headlines from Grasberg, El Teniente, and Kamoa-Kakula lifted sentiment. However, Goldman estimates net tightening is smaller than headlines suggest. Disrupted capacity near 700,000 t/yr nets to ~200,000t by 2026. Allowances and recoveries offset a large portion of losses.

Chinese demand signals have cooled from mid-year highs. China’s apparent consumption fell 2% year over year in September. Earlier quarters posted stronger gains near 15%. Meanwhile, cathode import premiums moderated to ~$40/t. Premiums remain positive but down from May’s $110/t. Therefore, China’s impulse looks mixed near term.

Speculative behavior mirrors the 2024 pattern. A softer dollar and outages pulled investors back in. Open interest on Comex remains below 2024 peaks. That leaves some room for additional inflows. However, Goldman expects any extra push to be brief. Positioning could unwind as data confirm surplus.

Global refined output has grown by 4% year to date. Output may dip about 2% year over year in the fourth quarter. Weakness in Chile contrasts with growth in the DRC. DRC refined production rose 13% year over year in July. Higher prices also mobilized more global scrap supply. Consequently, refined availability remains resilient.

Goldman raised its 2026 copper forecast to $10,500/t. The revision acknowledges tighter balances than previously expected. However, the bank still sees a modest surplus then. Prices should hover inside $10,000–11,000/t through early 2026. As speculative length fades, momentum should normalize. Therefore, risk-reward now favors patience and discipline.

Macro factors still matter for near-term volatility. A weaker dollar could extend the rally temporarily. Comex-LME arbitrage may pull metal into the US. Additional inflows could lift prices above current highs. However, Goldman expects reversals as positioning normalizes. Without stock declines, new records appear fragile.

Producers should manage hedging with measured triggers. Buyers should ladder coverage while spreads remain favorable. Traders should track China semis shipments and SHFE-LME signals. Meanwhile, watch smelter maintenance and TC/RCs for tightness cues. Ultimately, inventory trends will confirm or deny the squeeze story.

Positioning, Inventories, and Supply: Why the Peak Looks Close

Goldman’s thesis rests on stretched investor positioning today. LME exposure stands near the five-year 99th percentile. Therefore, marginal buyers face crowding risk. Visible inventories continue to climb across key hubs. Stock builds contradict a classic shortage narrative. As a result, upside looks increasingly tactical.

Supply disruptions appear less binding than headlines imply. Net tightening to 2026 balances is near 200,000t. Allowances, ramp-ups, and recoveries offset outages. Refined output growth cushions temporary shortfalls. Scrap flows add elasticity as prices rise. Therefore, sustained deficit claims seem premature.

China’s Demand Pulse and Price Path into 2026

China remains the largest swing factor for copper demand. Recent data show a moderation from mid-year strength. Import premiums eased, signaling reduced physical tightness. Ex-China semis shipments have been flat since March. Therefore, the near-term demand impulse looks softer.

Goldman’s base case anchors prices inside $10,000–11,000/t. Short-term spikes may occur on fresh inflows. However, medium-term prices should revert as length unwinds. Inventories and spreads will guide that reversion timing. Consequently, 2026 averages near $10,500/t look reasonable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Positioning, not panic scarcity, explains the latest leg higher. Unless visible stocks fall decisively, momentum should cool into 2026. We would fade extreme strength and favor range strategies around $10,000–11,000/t.

Peru’s Tia Maria Copper Project Continues to Face Delays

Southern Copper's Tia Maria project in Peru remains delayed despite efforts by the government to push it forward, according to mining and energy minister Romulo Mucho Mamani. "In 2024, we have attempted in every way to get Tia Maria off the ground, but it will take a bit longer," Mamani said, referencing local opposition to the project. 

Tia Maria, with an estimated cost of $1.4 billion and a projected capacity of 120,000 metric tonnes per year, has faced community resistance since 2009. Protests over the years have resulted in deaths and injuries, though their intensity has waned in recent years. 

Mamani noted that getting the project started is "a matter of time" as conditions are already in place. In addition to Tia Maria, the government plans to approve two other mining projects in 2024, including Zafranal and Pampa de Pongo.