Rivian Second-Life Battery Storage Project Links EV Packs to Grid Reliability

Rivian, Redwood

Rivian second-life battery storage is moving into commercial use after the US electric-vehicle maker agreed to deploy repurposed battery packs through Redwood Materials at its Normal manufacturing plant in Illinois. The project will use more than 100 used Rivian battery packs to provide 10 MWh of dispatchable battery energy storage.

The Rivian second-life battery storage project gives retired EV packs a second use before recycling. Redwood Materials will integrate the packs into a Redwood Energy system for on-site use at Rivian’s manufacturing facility.

Rivian second-life battery storage also reflects a wider shift in the battery value chain. Automakers and recyclers are looking for ways to extract more value from battery packs before recovering lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminium and other materials.

Redwood Turns Used EV Packs Into Stationary Storage

Redwood will receive EV battery packs from Rivian and convert them into a battery energy storage system for the Normal plant. The system will help reduce energy costs and support local grid reliability.

Second-life batteries are useful because EV packs can still retain meaningful capacity after vehicle use. They may no longer meet automotive performance requirements, but they can still serve stationary storage applications.

This creates a bridge between mobility and grid infrastructure. A battery pack can first support vehicle electrification, then provide stationary power, and later enter recycling for critical material recovery.

Redwood receives more than 20 GWh/yr of batteries, giving it a large feedstock base for both reuse and recycling. The company said it can deploy BESS projects in as little as six months, which matters as power demand rises quickly.

Data Center Power Demand Raises Storage Value

Rivian has attracted investors such as Google, which are seeking faster access to power solutions for artificial intelligence data center growth. This connection shows why second-life batteries are becoming more strategically relevant.

AI data centers need reliable, flexible and rapidly deployable power. Battery energy storage systems can help manage peak demand, improve resilience and reduce pressure on grids facing new large-load connections.

Repurposed EV batteries could become a lower-cost option where speed matters more than maximum energy density. They may also reduce waste and delay the need for immediate material recycling.

For the metals supply chain, this creates a more circular model. Battery materials stay in productive use longer, while recyclers build stronger long-term access to end-of-life packs and future recovered metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rivian and Redwood are showing how EV batteries can become grid assets before they become recycling feedstock. The strategic value lies in extending battery life, lowering storage costs and securing future material recovery in one integrated loop.

Indonesia HPM Formula Raises Nickel Ore Cost Risk for HPAL Producers

ESDM

Indonesia HPM formula changes will reshape nickel ore pricing from 15 April, adding new cost pressure across the country’s nickel processing chain. The energy and mineral resources ministry revised the mineral benchmark price mechanism for nickel and aluminium ore, with nickel valuation now expanded beyond nickel content alone.

The Indonesia HPM formula raises the correction factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, compared with the previous 20% correction factor for 1.9% ore. Under the new framework, the correction factor rises or falls by one percentage point for every 0.1% change in nickel content.

This means the correction factor for 1.9% nickel ore will rise to 33%. The change increases the official value of nickel ore and could raise taxes, royalties and feedstock costs for processors that rely on HPM-linked transactions.

The Indonesia HPM formula also adds cobalt, iron and chromium into ore valuation. This is a major policy shift because these contained elements were not previously priced in the same way. Indonesia is now moving toward a more complete ore-value model, especially for laterite ores used in battery and stainless steel supply chains.

Cobalt, Iron and Chromium Inclusion Changes Nickel Ore Valuation

Indonesia’s new nickel HPM framework gives cobalt a correction factor of 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. This is particularly important for high-pressure acid leach producers because cobalt-bearing ore can generate additional value through mixed hydroxide precipitate.

The ministry also introduced a 10% correction factor for iron when ore contains 35% or less iron. Chromium content also carries a 10% correction factor. These additions make ore valuation more complex and link pricing more closely to the full chemistry of laterite deposits.

The inclusion of cobalt is the most strategically important change. Indonesia’s HPAL projects produce nickel-cobalt intermediates for battery supply chains, and cobalt content can materially affect project economics. By taxing cobalt-bearing value inside ore, Jakarta is capturing more upstream rent from battery-linked mineral flows.

The Indonesia HPM formula therefore moves beyond a simple nickel-grade benchmark. It pushes the country toward a broader mineral-value system that recognises by-product metals and secondary contained value.

The ministry kept the Harga Mineral Acuan reference price unchanged. This means the immediate policy impact comes from correction factors and added contained elements, rather than a change in the headline reference price.

Market participants are now assessing how the new rules will pass through to actual transactions. For nickel ore used in rotary kiln-electric furnace production, spot prices remain nearly double the HPM level. This limits the immediate impact on some stainless-linked ore trades because market prices already sit well above the official benchmark.

The impact is likely to be much stronger for HPAL ore. Ore used in HPAL processing often trades without the same premium seen in RKEF feedstock. As a result, the revised HPM formula could lift transacted HPAL ore prices by more than a third.

That cost increase would move directly into battery-grade nickel economics. Market participants estimate that higher ore prices and taxes could raise mixed hydroxide precipitate production costs by more than $1,000/t in nickel metal equivalent.

This matters because Indonesia has become the centre of global MHP supply growth. Chinese-backed HPAL projects rely on Indonesian ore, sulphuric acid, energy and logistics to supply nickel and cobalt intermediates to global battery chains. Higher ore costs could narrow margins across MHP, nickel sulphate and cathode material supply.

The change also arrives during a period of wider nickel policy uncertainty. Indonesia has been tightening mining quotas, reviewing export taxes and seeking greater value capture from its mineral resources. The revised HPM formula fits that direction by increasing government control over pricing and taxable value.

Nickel Policy Shift Extends to Bauxite and Signals Broader Resource Control

Indonesia’s pricing reform did not stop at nickel. The ministry also revised the HPM formula for bauxite, changing the price basis to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne.

The bauxite change adds a silica discount and raises the correction factor to $1.40/wmt for each one percentage point increase in aluminium oxide content. The previous formula used $1/dmt. This changes how moisture and ore quality are reflected in benchmark pricing.

The ministry also changed the price basis for lead ore to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne. This effectively removes moisture content from the pricing formula and simplifies the benchmark around wet material values.

These changes suggest a broader policy direction. Indonesia is refining benchmark pricing across mineral commodities to improve tax collection, capture more contained value and align official pricing with ore quality.

For nickel, the change has immediate market significance because Indonesia dominates global laterite supply. Nickel ore pricing affects stainless steel, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, MHP, nickel sulphate and battery cathode supply chains.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price response showed that traders are treating the policy as price-supportive. Nickel closed at Yn136,900/t after rising from Yn133,010/t on 3 April, with participants citing support from the revised HMA-linked pricing framework.

However, the real market impact will depend on how producers, smelters and government agencies implement the rules. If HPM-based taxes rise sharply while spot ore prices remain high, margin pressure could build across processors with weaker cost positions.

HPAL producers are the most exposed because their feedstock pricing may move more directly with the revised benchmark. RKEF operators may see less immediate change because their ore costs already reflect strong market premiums.

For battery materials buyers, the risk is that Indonesia’s cost base becomes more expensive even as global nickel markets remain oversupplied. Higher ore valuation may not tighten physical supply immediately, but it can raise the floor for production costs in one of the world’s most important nickel processing hubs.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource sovereignty. The government is using pricing formulas, mining quotas, export controls and tax compliance to ensure that more mineral value stays inside the country. This could support domestic revenue and downstream investment, but it may also increase uncertainty for processors and foreign investors.

The new framework also creates a precedent. If Indonesia successfully captures more value from cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore, other resource-rich countries may consider similar contained-metal pricing models.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula shows that nickel policy is moving from volume control to value capture. The biggest impact will fall on HPAL producers, where cobalt-bearing ore valuation could raise MHP costs and change battery nickel economics.

Ascend Elements Bankruptcy Exposes Pressure in Battery Recycling Market

Ascend Elements

Ascend Elements bankruptcy filing shows how difficult the battery recycling business has become as electric vehicle adoption slows in the US and Europe. The US battery recycler has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will use the court-supervised process to restructure liabilities while continuing normal operations.

Ascend Elements bankruptcy comes despite major commercial and government-backed support. The company said it had secured more than $2bn in commercial agreements and a $320mn grant from Poland, but these were not enough to overcome longstanding financial issues and outstanding liabilities.

The filing highlights a broader weakness in the battery recycling sector. Recyclers need steady end-of-life battery and production scrap feedstock, but slower EV growth has limited available material and made it harder to sell recovered products into battery supply chains.

Funding and Offtake Deals Failed to Offset Financial Pressure

Ascend had previously planned to develop cathode active material production in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. However, the company and the US Department of Energy agreed in March 2025 to cancel a $164mn grant for that project.

The company later received a $320mn grant from Poland in May 2025 to build a precursor cathode active material plant. That support showed continued policy interest in battery materials localization, especially in Europe.

Ascend also signed a five-year offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with 15,000t of lithium carbonate from 2027 to 2031. The agreement gave the company a future sales channel, but it did not solve its immediate balance-sheet pressure.

Slower EV Growth Weakens Recycling Economics

Ascend Elements bankruptcy reflects the timing problem facing battery recyclers. Many business models were built around rapid EV growth, rising battery scrap availability and strong demand for recycled lithium, nickel, cobalt and cathode materials.

But slower EV adoption has delayed feedstock growth and reduced market confidence. Without sufficient input material and reliable downstream demand, recyclers can struggle to operate at the scale needed to justify large processing and materials investments.

The pressure is not limited to Ascend. Texas-based recycler Ecobat is selling assets in the UK, France, Italy, Germany and Austria to focus on North America, showing that consolidation and retrenchment are spreading across the sector.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ascend Elements bankruptcy shows that battery recycling is strategically important but commercially unforgiving. The winners will be companies with secured feedstock, disciplined capital spending and customers ready to buy recycled battery materials at scale.

Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Nears Completion With Hot Commissioning Start

Hanrui Indonesian

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter development has moved into hot commissioning, signalling that Nanjing Hanrui’s delayed nickel matte project in Central Sulawesi is nearing completion. The Chinese cobalt producer launched the commissioning phase on 10 April at the Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali.

The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter is designed to produce 20,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis. The project will use oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology to convert nickel feedstock into matte for downstream processing.

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter progress matters because Indonesia remains the centre of global nickel capacity growth. New matte projects help connect Indonesian nickel resources with battery materials supply chains, especially where producers need feedstock for nickel sulphate and other battery-grade products.

Hot Commissioning Marks Final Step Before Commercial Output

Hot commissioning means production lines are being tested under operating conditions before full commercial production begins. This stage is important because it tests equipment integration, process stability, safety systems and product quality.

Hanrui had originally planned to start production in May 2025, but later deferred the schedule to March 2026. The start of hot commissioning now suggests the company is moving closer to operational readiness after earlier delays.

The project’s location in Morowali gives Hanrui access to one of Indonesia’s most important nickel industrial clusters. Morowali has become a major processing centre for Chinese-backed nickel investments, supported by integrated infrastructure, smelting capacity and downstream materials ambitions.

Chinese Producers Expand Nickel Matte Capacity in Indonesia

Hanrui’s project forms part of a broader Chinese investment wave in Indonesian nickel processing. Chinese companies are building matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate, ferronickel and other nickel products to serve both stainless steel and battery markets.

Huayou has also started construction of its Huaxing nickel matte project at the Indonesia Pomalaa Industry Park. That project is planned for 40,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis, although Huayou has not disclosed its construction timeline or start-up date.

The expansion of nickel matte capacity gives Chinese producers more flexibility in feedstock flows. It also strengthens Indonesia’s position as a processing base, not only an ore supplier.

However, new capacity still faces execution risks. Power supply, sulphur availability, environmental controls, commissioning performance and market prices will determine how quickly these projects move from nameplate capacity to stable commercial production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hanrui’s hot commissioning shows that Indonesia’s nickel buildout continues despite delays and market uncertainty. The strategic issue is whether new matte capacity can ramp smoothly enough to support battery supply chains without adding further pressure to an already competitive nickel market.

Lygend Indonesian Nickel Output Drives Sharp Profit Growth in 2025

Lygend Indonesia

Lygend Indonesian nickel output drove a sharp increase in the company’s revenue and profit in 2025. China’s major nickel producer reported revenue of 40.24bn yuan, or about $5.85bn, up 379% from a year earlier.

Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 61% to 2.85bn yuan. The improvement reflected higher production from Lygend’s Indonesian nickel operations and stronger cobalt prices after export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo tightened the cobalt market.

Lygend Indonesian nickel output also strengthened the company’s position across both battery and stainless steel raw material chains. Its Indonesian assets produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate and ferronickel, giving the company flexibility across demand cycles.

HPAL and RKEF Projects Lifted Nickel and Cobalt Volumes

Lygend’s Obi Island HPAL project operated at full capacity in 2025. The six-line facility produced 120,000t in nickel metal equivalent and 14,250t in cobalt metal equivalent during the year.

The HPAL project can produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate or cobalt sulphate depending on market demand. This flexibility matters because battery materials markets can shift quickly between intermediate products and refined sulphate demand.

The company’s HJF phase I project also ran at nameplate capacity, producing 95,000t in nickel metal equivalent through rotary kiln electric furnace technology. Meanwhile, Lygend ramped up output at its KPS phase II project, which has nameplate capacity of 185,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent.

Cobalt Prices Helped Offset Rising Input Costs

Lygend benefited from higher cobalt prices because its MHP contains cobalt. The DRC’s cobalt export controls lifted cobalt market sentiment and increased the value of cobalt-bearing intermediates.

Cobalt prices more than doubled during 2025, rising to about $25/lb in December from around $11.5/lb in January. This gave Lygend additional revenue support from MHP sales.

The stronger cobalt contribution helped offset higher costs for sulphur, energy and other consumables. These inputs remain critical for HPAL operations, where sulphuric acid availability and cost can directly affect processing economics.

Lygend also received approval from Indonesia for sulphuric acid import quotas. This allows partial substitution of sulphur with sulphuric acid when needed, improving feedstock flexibility and supply chain resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lygend’s 2025 results show how Indonesia has become the operating center of China-linked nickel growth. The company’s advantage now comes from scale, HPAL flexibility and cobalt exposure, but sulphuric acid supply will remain a key cost variable.

Indonesia Nickel Export Tax Delay Keeps Ore Pricing Uncertainty in Focus

Indonesia Nickel Factory

Indonesia nickel export tax implementation was postponed from its original 1 April start date as authorities continued to finalise the technical formula and applicable rates. The delay kept uncertainty high across the nickel ore and stainless steel supply chain.

Indonesia nickel export tax discussions now centre on how changes to the Harga Patokan Mineral pricing system will be calculated. Market participants are watching which reference prices and contained elements will be used in the revised ore pricing formula.

Indonesia nickel export tax uncertainty has already affected buying behaviour. With stainless steel demand broadly stable, some buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach because future import costs could rise once the tax structure is confirmed.

HPM Formula Review Could Broaden Nickel Ore Valuation

The key issue is whether Indonesia will expand the HPM formula beyond nickel content. Cobalt content in nickel ore is considered one of the most likely additions, while iron and chromium are also being discussed.

This would mark a meaningful change from the previous pricing approach. The Harga Mineral Acuan has largely used London Metal Exchange nickel prices as the main benchmark, but cobalt, iron and chromium create a more complex valuation problem.

The challenge is that not all of these elements have clear futures-based reference prices. Authorities therefore need to decide which benchmarks, market data or calculation methods should apply before the export tax can be implemented.

Export Tax Delay Still Leaves Cost Pressure on Buyers

Market participants expect the nickel export tax to follow a structure similar to Indonesia’s coal export levy. Potential rates could be set at 5%, 8% and 11%, depending on price levels.

However, it remains unclear which nickel products would ultimately fall under the tax. This lack of clarity matters because Indonesia’s nickel supply chain covers ore, intermediate products, stainless-related materials and battery-linked products.

The delay gives buyers short-term relief, but it does not remove the policy risk. Once implemented, the export tax could raise nickel import costs, affect procurement strategies and change the economics of ore supply into regional processing and stainless steel markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel export tax delay shows how difficult it is to tax mineral value when ore chemistry becomes more complex. The inclusion of cobalt, iron or chromium could make the policy more sophisticated, but it also increases pricing uncertainty for buyers and processors.

Cobalt Blue Glomar Nodule Processing Deal Targets US Critical Minerals Supply

Glomar Minerals x Cobalt Blue 

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing plans have moved forward after Australian minerals processor Cobalt Blue signed an agreement with US deep sea miner Glomar Minerals to process seabed polymetallic nodules. The partnership will focus on testing whether nodules can become a reliable feedstock for critical metals including cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel and titanium.

The agreement gives both companies a pathway to assess processing feasibility before moving toward a larger industrial model. Pilot testing will take place at Cobalt Blue’s Broken Hill Technology Center in Australia.

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing is strategically important because deep sea nodules contain multiple metals needed for batteries, stainless steel, alloys, electrification and defense-related supply chains. The main challenge is not only resource access, but proving that the material can be processed efficiently, responsibly and at commercial scale.

Broken Hill Pilot Testing Will Define Recovery Potential

Cobalt Blue will test recovery feasibility from polymetallic nodules across several metal streams. The work will help determine how cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel, titanium and other metals can be separated and converted into usable products.

This processing step is critical for deep sea mining economics. Polymetallic nodules may offer metal diversity, but commercial value depends on metallurgical performance, recovery rates, processing cost and environmental controls.

The Broken Hill Technology Center gives the partnership a practical testing platform. If pilot results are successful, the companies can move from early feasibility work toward engineering a larger processing route.

US Facility Plan Highlights Deep Sea Supply Chain Ambition

Cobalt Blue and Glomar eventually aim to develop a commercial-scale polymetallic nodule processing facility in the US. The planned facility would have capacity of 200,000 tonnes per year.

Glomar holds exploration licences in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a North Pacific region known for significant polymetallic nodule deposits. That position gives the company potential access to a major seabed mineral resource base.

For the US, the project fits a broader effort to diversify critical mineral supply beyond conventional land-based mining. However, deep sea mineral development will still face technical, environmental, regulatory and financing scrutiny before it can become a meaningful supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing shows that deep sea mining is moving from resource promotion toward metallurgical validation. The real test will be whether seabed nodules can become a responsible and scalable feedstock for US critical minerals processing.

Brunp Battery Materials Project Expands CATL’s Recycling and LFP Supply Chain

Brunp Battery Materials

Brunp battery materials project development has advanced in Yichang, Hubei province, as Guangdong Brunp Recycling Technology broke ground on a 500,000 t/yr production complex. The project carries total investment of 6.1bn yuan, or about $840 million.

The new plant is designed to produce 300,000 t/yr of iron phosphate, 180,000 t/yr of nickel sulphate and 12,000 t/yr of cobalt sulphate. Construction is scheduled for completion in the second half of 2027.

Brunp battery materials project investment strengthens the upstream materials platform behind China’s battery industry. Brunp is a controlling subsidiary of CATL, the country’s largest battery producer, and focuses on recycling, resources and battery materials.

Yichang Base Builds Scale Across LFP and Recycling

The Yichang base will become a major integrated battery materials hub once the new project is operational. It will have 750,000 t/yr of iron phosphate capacity, 450,000 t/yr of lithium iron phosphate capacity and 500,000 t/yr of battery recycling capacity.

Brunp has already made several investments in Yichang since entering the city in 2021. The company launched a 450,000 t/yr LFP factory in December, reinforcing the site’s role in China’s expanding phosphate-based battery supply chain.

This matters because LFP batteries continue to gain share in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Large-scale iron phosphate and LFP capacity gives CATL-linked supply chains stronger control over cost, material availability and recycling integration.

Recycling Capacity Deepens China’s Battery Materials Control

Brunp Recycling processed more than 200,000t of power batteries in 2025. The company now plans to raise total recycling and processing capacity to more than 1mn t/yr by 2030.

The strategy reflects a wider shift in battery materials sourcing. Recycling is becoming a strategic source of nickel, cobalt, lithium and other battery inputs, especially as governments and manufacturers seek lower-carbon and more secure supply chains.

The Yichang project also adds nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate capacity, linking recycling with precursor material production. However, weaker upside in metals prices has limited buyer appetite in China’s black mass market, even as NCM payables edged higher in early March.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brunp’s Yichang expansion shows how CATL is tightening control over the full battery materials loop, from recycling to LFP and sulphate production. The project also underlines China’s advantage in building scale across both primary materials processing and circular battery supply chains.

Australia EU Trade Deal Secures Critical Raw Materials Supply

Australia, EU trade

Australia EU trade deal negotiations have concluded after eight years, giving the EU a new framework to secure stable access to critical raw materials. The agreement targets minerals including lithium, bauxite, manganese, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth oxides.

The Australia EU trade deal will cut or remove bilateral tariffs on critical raw materials and value-added mineral products. This gives European manufacturers a more reliable supply route at a time when tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical pressure are reshaping global materials trade.

The agreement also strengthens Australia’s position as a preferred critical minerals partner for Europe. Australia produces around a third of global lithium and remains a major supplier of bauxite, iron ore, zirconium, and rare earth elements.

Critical Minerals Access Becomes Central to EU Trade Policy

The EU is using the Australia EU trade deal to reduce exposure to China-dominated supply chains and rising US tariff risks. The agreement reflects Brussels’ shift from traditional trade liberalisation toward strategic supply chain security.

Critical raw materials are now central to European industrial policy because they support batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence systems, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Stable access to lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and rare earths will determine how quickly Europe can scale clean-energy manufacturing.

The deal also includes deeper co-operation on critical raw materials, including possible co-financing of key projects. This matters because Europe needs not only raw mineral access, but also investment in processing, refining, and value-added material production.

Australia Gains Strategic Value as Europe Diversifies Supply

Australia stands to gain economically and strategically from the agreement. The deal is expected to add about $7 billion per year to the Australian economy, while European producers could save more than $1.1 billion in tariffs over the next decade.

The timing is important because Europe is rapidly diversifying its strategic trade partnerships. The EU recently moved forward with trade agreements involving Mercosur and India, showing that Brussels is building a wider network of reliable raw material and manufacturing partners.

The Australia agreement still requires approval by a majority of EU member states and consent from the European Parliament before ratification is complete. However, the strategic direction is already clear: Europe wants critical minerals supply from partners with stable governance, developed mining capacity, and lower geopolitical risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Australia EU trade deal shows that critical minerals have moved from procurement strategy to trade architecture. Europe is no longer simply buying raw materials; it is building alliances to secure the minerals, processing capacity, and industrial resilience needed for the energy transition.

Battery Metals Mining Diesel Disruption Raises New Supply Chain Risk

Battery Metals Mining

Battery metals mining diesel disruption could become an immediate operational risk if the Middle East fuel crisis continues to restrict diesel and gasoil flows. Mining operations that rely heavily on diesel for haulage, transport, drilling, and remote-site activity are the most directly exposed.

The pressure will not affect every part of the battery supply chain equally. Upstream mining faces the clearest fuel availability and cost risk, while refining and processing may feel the impact later through logistics delays, higher freight costs, and reduced primary feedstock availability.

Battery metals mining diesel disruption is most relevant for parts of southern Africa, Australia, and southeast Asia. These regions host major copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel operations, but their fuel exposure differs sharply by power source, transport route, and mine configuration.

Southern African Copper and Cobalt Face Fuel Logistics Pressure

The DRC and Zambia could face early pressure if diesel flows remain disrupted. Ports in South Africa and Tanzania reportedly had around two months of diesel stock moving inland, but mining operators may need to reduce fuel use by mid-April if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon.

The risk is significant because the copper-cobalt belt depends on diesel for logistics, open-pit haulage, mine-site activity, and some ore concentration processes. The DRC relies heavily on hydroelectricity for power, but diesel generators remain important in areas with limited grid access and for backup supply.

Zambia also plays a crucial logistics role between the copperbelt and key export ports, including Durban. Fuel shortages along these routes could slow truck movements, disrupt concentrate and cathode shipments, and add costs across copper and cobalt supply chains.

Australia Lithium and Indonesia Nickel Show Different Exposure Profiles

Australia appears acutely exposed because it imports most of its diesel from Asia, which in turn depends heavily on Middle East supply. The country has already lowered fuel standards in preparation for supply chain disruption, while cancelled fuel shipments have raised concerns about supply from the second half of April.

Hard-rock lithium mining in Australia could be one of the most fuel-sensitive parts of the battery metals chain. Major spodumene operations such as Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Mt Marion rely on diesel for haulage, drilling, and remote-site logistics, even though crushing, grinding, and concentration use more electricity.

Indonesia’s nickel sector is more insulated from immediate fuel disruption because many processing operations rely on captive coal-fired power. However, nickel mining still needs diesel for extraction and internal logistics, while the sector remains exposed to sulfur, sulfuric acid, shipping, and broader energy cost risks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Battery metals mining diesel disruption shows that energy security is now part of critical mineral security. The market often focuses on ore grades and processing capacity, but fuel logistics can decide whether copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel supply actually reaches the next stage of the value chain.

Samsung SDI BESS Supply Deal Strengthens US Energy Storage Battery Chain

Samsung SDI BESS

Samsung SDI BESS supply deal activity is accelerating in the US as demand for grid-scale battery storage continues to rise. The South Korean battery manufacturer has secured a 1.5 trillion won, or about $1 billion, contract to supply BESS batteries to a US energy company over four years.

The Samsung SDI BESS supply deal will run from 2026 to 2029. The batteries will be supplied in phases, supporting the rapid buildout of US battery energy storage systems as utilities, renewable developers, and infrastructure operators seek more flexible power capacity.

The agreement also strengthens Samsung SDI’s US manufacturing strategy. The batteries will be produced at StarPlus Energy’s plant in Indiana, a joint venture between Samsung SDI and Stellantis.

Indiana Production Links Battery Storage to Domestic Manufacturing

The StarPlus Energy facility gives Samsung SDI a local production base for the US energy storage market. This matters because US customers increasingly value domestic or regionally anchored battery supply chains, especially for energy infrastructure projects.

Initial deliveries will use nickel-cobalt-aluminum batteries. This chemistry gives Samsung SDI a route to serve early BESS demand while preparing for broader chemistry diversification.

Later expansion will include lithium iron phosphate batteries. LFP batteries are becoming more important in stationary storage because cost, safety, cycle life, and scale matter more than maximum energy density in many grid applications.

LFP Expansion Signals a Wider Shift in US BESS Demand

The Samsung SDI BESS supply deal follows another major LFP agreement signed last December with an unnamed US energy infrastructure company. That earlier contract was valued at two trillion won, or about $1.33 billion.

Together, the deals show that Samsung SDI is moving more aggressively into the US battery energy storage systems market. The company is no longer positioned only around electric vehicle batteries, but also around grid storage and power infrastructure.

This shift has important materials implications. BESS growth will increase demand for lithium, iron phosphate materials, nickel, cobalt, aluminum, copper, graphite, separators, electrolytes, and power electronics. It will also intensify competition among Korean, Chinese, Japanese, and US-linked battery supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Samsung SDI’s latest contract confirms that US battery demand is shifting from EV-only growth toward a broader energy infrastructure cycle. For battery makers, chemistry flexibility and local production are becoming as important as scale itself.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Electra Cobalt Offtake Extension Secures LG Energy Solution’s Battery Supply

Electra

Electra cobalt offtake terms have been extended by LG Energy Solution, giving the South Korean battery maker longer access to battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Canada. The updated agreement shows how battery manufacturers continue to secure regional critical mineral supply even as cobalt demand faces changing battery chemistry trends.

Under the revised deal, LG Energy Solution will take 60% of Electra Battery Materials’ cobalt sulfate production through 2029. The agreement also includes an option to extend the offtake terms to 2032. LGES first agreed in 2022 to buy battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Electra for three years.

The Electra cobalt offtake update is strategically important because it supports a North American refining route for battery materials. Electra is developing a cobalt sulfate refinery in Ontario, Canada, with commercial production expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Ontario Refinery Becomes Key to Regional Cobalt Processing

Electra’s Ontario cobalt refinery has faced delays, but the project is now moving forward again. Financial constraints and supply chain disruptions paused construction in 2023, before Electra restarted work in November after approving a $73 million construction budget.

The company expects early commissioning to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commercial production is planned for the fourth quarter of 2027. Once operating, the refinery is expected to initially produce 5,120 tonnes per year of contained cobalt.

Electra’s nameplate capacity could reach up to 6,500 tonnes per year of contained cobalt. This scale would not transform global cobalt supply alone, but it could provide an important regional source of battery-grade cobalt sulfate for North American and allied battery supply chains.

LGES Strengthens Critical Mineral Security Through Long-Term Supply

LG Energy Solution’s extended agreement shows that battery makers still value secure cobalt supply despite growth in lower-cobalt and cobalt-free chemistries. High-nickel battery systems and certain performance-focused applications continue to require reliable cobalt inputs.

The Electra cobalt offtake deal also supports supply chain diversification away from highly concentrated refining regions. For LGES, Canadian cobalt sulfate could help reduce procurement risk and support compliance with regional sourcing expectations in North America.

For Electra, the updated agreement strengthens commercial visibility before the refinery reaches production. Long-term offtake support can help improve project bankability, especially for critical mineral processing assets that require high capital spending before revenue begins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Electra-LGES deal shows that cobalt has not disappeared from battery supply strategy. Even as chemistries diversify, battery-grade refining capacity in North America remains strategically valuable for automakers, cell makers, and policy-driven supply chains.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

Nickel Industries RKAB Quota Secures Feedstock for Indonesian HPAL Expansion

RKAB

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval gives the Australian producer a stronger feedstock position in Indonesia’s tightening nickel market. The company has secured a 2026 nickel ore quota of 14.3mn wet metric tonnes, supporting both its rotary kiln electric furnace operations and its expanding battery-grade nickel platform.

The approved quota represents a 36pc increase from the company’s 10.5mn wmt quota in 2025. Of the total, up to 6mn wmt of saprolite ore will supply Nickel Industries’ RKEF operations, while 8.3mn wmt of limonite ore will support feed requirements for the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project.

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval follows the company’s receipt of an environmental permit from Indonesia’s environment ministry. The AMDAL permit is valid for five years and could support a further quota increase to around 19mn wmt in 2026, giving the company room to apply for additional feedstock later this year.

ENC HPAL Project Raises Nickel Industries’ Battery Materials Exposure

The ENC HPAL project is central to Nickel Industries’ shift beyond ferronickel and nickel pig iron-linked operations. The project is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter and is designed to produce 72,000 t/yr of nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate, and nickel cathode.

This matters because limonite ore availability is becoming increasingly strategic in Indonesia. HPAL plants require consistent limonite feed to produce MHP and downstream nickel chemicals for batteries. Any restriction in ore quotas can directly affect project ramp-up schedules, operating rates, and customer supply planning.

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval therefore gives the company an advantage over producers facing sharper quota cuts. It also supports the company’s ability to position ENC as part of Indonesia’s growing battery materials supply chain, where nickel intermediate production remains a major source of global supply growth.

Indonesia’s Quota Tightening Keeps Ore Supply Risk High

Indonesia’s wider nickel market remains under pressure despite Nickel Industries’ higher quota. The government plans to cut the 2026 RKAB nickel production quota to 260mn-270mn t from about 379mn t in 2025. That reduction signals a more controlled policy environment and tighter ore availability across the sector.

The impact is already visible. Weda Bay Nickel reportedly saw its RKAB cut by 70pc to 12mn wmt this year, showing that quota approvals are becoming more selective. Producers with stronger environmental approvals and clearer downstream integration may be better positioned, while others face greater uncertainty.

Nickel Industries also experienced the operational risk of delayed approvals. Its nickel ore production fell 77pc year on year to 1.67mn wmt in October-December 2025 because of downtime linked to RKAB delays. The company has since resumed operations at Hengjaya and expects mine sales to recover, but the episode shows how regulatory timing can quickly affect Indonesian nickel output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel market is entering a more disciplined phase where permits, ESG compliance, and quota access matter as much as installed capacity. Nickel Industries’ approval is positive, but the wider RKAB tightening means ore security will remain one of the biggest risks for nickel and battery materials supply.

Civil Aircraft Tariff Exemption Shields Aerospace Trade but Metal Duties Remain

Airplanes parts

Civil aircraft tariff exemption rules will shield commercial aircraft, engines, parts, components, and subassemblies from the latest US import tariff. However, the carve-out does not remove existing tariff pressure on several critical aerospace metals used across aircraft manufacturing and high-performance supply chains.

The latest US measure applies a temporary 10pc tariff on most imports for 150 days from 24 February, with a possible 15pc rate subject to official implementation. Civil aviation products are excluded under annex I, covering all non-military aircraft and their related engines, parts, components, and other subassemblies.

The exemption follows strong aerospace industry resistance to earlier trade action. Commercial aviation supply chains are deeply global, and aircraft production depends on cross-border movement of precision parts, engines, structures, avionics, and certified materials. A broad tariff on these flows would have raised costs across Boeing, Airbus suppliers, engine makers, maintenance providers, and aerospace metals processors.

Aerospace Supply Chains Avoid Direct Aircraft Tariff Shock

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects one of the most globally integrated industrial supply chains from immediate disruption. Commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on certified components moving repeatedly between countries before final assembly, delivery, and maintenance.

This carve-out also supports the July EU-US agreement that restored transatlantic free trade on aircraft and component parts. That matters because Europe and the United States remain tightly connected in aircraft structures, engines, landing gear, fasteners, forgings, castings, and advanced materials.

However, the exemption does not mean aerospace manufacturers are free from trade cost risk. Tariffs can still affect upstream materials and intermediate inputs before they become certified aircraft parts. This creates a split market where finished aviation components may be protected, while key metals used to make them still face separate tariff regimes.

Critical Aerospace Metals Still Face Tariff Exposure

Critical aerospace metals remain exposed through existing Section 301 and Section 232 measures. Section 301 tariffs of 25pc on various materials used in aircraft and associated parts still apply. This keeps cost pressure on parts of the aerospace materials chain even after the civil aircraft carve-out.

Annex II also maintains exemptions for several critical materials, including titanium, cobalt, chromium, rhenium, nickel, tantalum, tungsten, and niobium. These materials are essential for aircraft engines, high-temperature alloys, fasteners, structural components, landing systems, and other demanding aerospace applications.

Hafnium stands out because it is not included in annex II and is therefore subject to the new tariff. That is strategically relevant because hafnium is used in high-temperature and advanced alloy applications, including aerospace and defence-related supply chains. The omission shows how narrow tariff classifications can create unexpected cost exposure for small but critical materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects final aerospace trade, but it does not fully protect the metals value chain behind it. The real risk now sits in the gap between tariff-exempt aircraft parts and tariff-exposed specialty materials.

Trafigura Critical Minerals Loan Strengthens Germany’s Raw Materials Security

Trafigura

Trafigura critical minerals loan support from the German government marks another major step in Europe’s effort to secure strategic raw materials. The $2.1bn, five-year agreement is designed to support supplies for Germany’s industrial, energy, and technology sectors at a time when critical minerals are becoming central to economic security.

The loan is guaranteed through Germany’s export credit agency Euler Hermes and co-arranged by Commerzbank. A consortium of eight lenders financed the package. This structure shows how governments are increasingly using credit guarantees to support supply access, not only domestic production.

Trafigura critical minerals loan financing also reflects Germany’s growing reliance on public-private supply frameworks. The company previously secured an $800mn Germany-backed loan in 2022 to supply refined non-ferrous metals and a $3bn loan the same year to support gas supply. The latest agreement shifts the focus toward minerals needed for the green transition, defence, and advanced manufacturing.

Germany Deepens State-Backed Support for Critical Minerals Supply

Germany is treating critical minerals supply as an industrial resilience issue. The new loan does not identify specific minerals or projects, but the EU’s critical raw materials list includes rare earths, gallium, germanium, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. These materials are essential for batteries, semiconductors, power systems, defence applications, and high-performance manufacturing.

The financing also shows how Europe is responding to supply concentration risk. Many critical minerals are mined, refined, or processed in limited jurisdictions. As a result, industrial buyers are exposed not only to price volatility, but also to export controls, geopolitical disruption, and refining bottlenecks.

Trafigura critical minerals loan support gives Germany a mechanism to strengthen access through one of the world’s largest commodity trading networks. For German manufacturers, this matters because access to raw materials can determine competitiveness in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, electronics, aerospace, and industrial technology.

Processing Capacity Becomes the Strategic Battleground

Trafigura has repeatedly argued that governments must support smelting and refining capacity if they want resilient critical minerals supply chains. This is a key point because supply security does not end at mining. Many strategic materials become usable only after complex refining, by-product recovery, and metallurgical processing.

Nyrstar, Trafigura’s metals subsidiary, is becoming an important part of that strategy. The company is expanding processing capacity for by-products such as antimony, germanium, indium, and bismuth. These materials often come from existing metallurgical circuits, making legacy smelters strategically valuable in the critical minerals economy.

Nyrstar’s first shipments of Australian-produced antimony metal from its Port Pirie plant highlight this approach. Instead of waiting for entirely new mines and refineries, Trafigura is using existing infrastructure to scale output of materials with high strategic value. That model could become increasingly important as Europe and allied economies race to reduce exposure to concentrated supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This loan shows that critical minerals security is moving from policy language into balance-sheet-backed industrial action. The winners will be companies that control logistics, refining knowledge, and by-product recovery capacity, not only mine ownership.

Suzuki e-Vitara Electric SUV Launch Signals a Bigger EV Push in India

Suzuki eVX

Suzuki e-Vitara electric SUV marks the company’s formal shift into full battery electric vehicles. Suzuki began sales of the e-Vitara in India, making it the firm’s first BEV model. This launch matters because Suzuki has long relied more heavily on hybrids. As a result, Suzuki e-Vitara electric SUV becomes a strategic test of how seriously the company will pursue the EV market.

The launch also puts India at the center of Suzuki’s electric transition. The model is built at Maruti Suzuki’s Hansalpur plant in Gujarat. That site already sits inside a broader expansion plan targeting 1mn EVs per year. Therefore, Suzuki e-Vitara electric SUV is not just a product launch. It is part of a much larger manufacturing ambition.

India EV Supply Chain Still Looks Tight

India EV supply chain remains the biggest constraint behind Suzuki’s electric growth path. The company did not disclose battery chemistry or sourcing details for the e-Vitara. That leaves open a critical question about how Suzuki will secure enough cells as production rises. Consequently, the commercial success of the Suzuki e-Vitara electric SUV will depend on more than vehicle demand alone.

The wider Indian market is still dealing with upstream bottlenecks. Carmakers warned last year that China’s rare earth export controls could slow motor production because of magnet shortages. Domestic projects in lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths have also moved slowly. Therefore, India EV supply chain development still lags the scale of EV ambition.

Maruti Suzuki EV Strategy Extends Beyond the Vehicle Itself

Maruti Suzuki EV strategy is not limited to selling one electric SUV. The company also announced a goal of 100,000 branded charging points by 2030. It has already installed 2,000 of them. That means Suzuki is trying to shape the charging ecosystem alongside vehicle rollout. As a result, the Suzuki e-Vitara electric SUV launch is tied to infrastructure as well as manufacturing.

This wider strategy makes sense in a market where ecosystem gaps still matter. Other Indian EV and battery plans have already been scaled back or delayed. That creates space for more disciplined players to build practical scale over time. Meanwhile, Maruti Suzuki EV strategy may benefit from moving more steadily than some earlier industry promises.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Suzuki’s first electric SUV matters because it shows India’s EV shift is moving from announcements to actual product launches. The bigger challenge now is not whether Suzuki can build an electric model. It is whether India can build the battery materials, cells, magnets, and charging network needed to support that growth at scale.

Sherritt Moa Nickel-Cobalt Pause Raises New Supply Concerns for 2026

Sherritt International

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is now the company’s most immediate operational challenge for 2026. Sherritt said it will temporarily suspend mining at its Moa joint venture in Cuba because fuel deliveries cannot be fulfilled. The company also expects to place the processing plant on standby. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is creating new uncertainty around upstream supply and production planning.

This matters because Moa is a key source of nickel and cobalt feed for Sherritt’s wider business. The company said it does not yet know when fuel deliveries to the site will resume. That makes the interruption more serious than a short maintenance event. Therefore, Cuba nickel-cobalt supply is now facing a disruption with no clear restart timeline.

Sherritt is using the downtime to complete maintenance activities at the processing plant. That should help the site use the pause more productively while operations remain constrained. However, the core issue is still fuel access, not plant readiness. Consequently, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause may last longer than the market would prefer.

Fort Saskatchewan Refinery Buys Some Time

Fort Saskatchewan refinery gives Sherritt some short-term protection against the Cuban disruption. The company said its Alberta refinery should see no immediate impact and will continue producing finished nickel and cobalt. Existing feed inventory is expected to last until mid-April. As a result, downstream production can continue for now.

That inventory buffer is important, but it is limited. If Moa mining and processing do not restart before the feed runs low, pressure could move downstream as well. Therefore, the Fort Saskatchewan refinery is buying time rather than fully solving the problem.

Nickel and Cobalt Output Guidance Now Looks Less Certain

Nickel and cobalt output guidance for 2026 now looks harder to defend. Sherritt had expected to produce 26,000-28,000t of finished nickel and 2,750-2,850t of finished cobalt this year. The company now says it will update guidance once it has greater certainty on a full restart. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is directly affecting market expectations for annual output.

One part of the business remains stable. Sherritt said its power division, Energas, should continue operating without issues. That limits the disruption to the metals side of the portfolio. Meanwhile, investors and buyers will focus on how quickly fuel deliveries can return to Moa.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This disruption shows how vulnerable nickel and cobalt supply chains can remain to non-market factors such as fuel availability. Sherritt still has some downstream breathing room, but that buffer is not large. If Moa stays offline for too long, the company may need to materially reset its 2026 metals outlook.

DRC Cobalt Supply Dynamics Shift as US-China Competition Deepens

DRC Cobalt

DRC cobalt supply dynamics are changing as geopolitical competition reshapes control over the country’s mineral flows. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced around 205,000t of cobalt in 2025. Chinese companies accounted for about 63pc of that output. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics now sit at the center of a wider US-China critical minerals contest.

This shift matters because the DRC remains the world’s most important cobalt feedstock source. For years, most Congolese cobalt moved toward Chinese refiners and battery material producers. That pattern is now facing pressure from export controls, quota systems, and new western-backed supply initiatives. Therefore, DRC cobalt supply dynamics are no longer defined by mining alone.

The policy environment is also changing quickly. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports in 2025 before moving to a quota system for 2026 and 2027. Only 96,600 t/yr of cobalt feedstock will be authorized for export under the new structure. Consequently, DRC cobalt exports are becoming more managed and more strategic.

US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership Is Challenging China’s Dominance

The US-DRC critical minerals partnership is beginning to challenge China’s dominant position in the sector. The proposed Orion investment in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda mines could give the US-backed group direct board access and more influence over metal flows. That would create a new route for western buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics may become less concentrated around China.

Other moves reinforce that trend. Project Vault, the planned US critical minerals stockpile, shows Washington wants more control over future cobalt supply. The first EGC and Trafigura copper-cobalt cargoes through the Lobito corridor are also heading to US customers. Therefore, the US-DRC critical minerals partnership is now moving from policy language to physical supply.

This does not mean China is losing its position overnight. Around 90pc of DRC cobalt feedstock has typically been shipped to China. Chinese miners and traders still hold enormous influence across the country’s output base. Meanwhile, the new quota system still leaves Chinese firms with a large share of the authorized export volume.

DRC Cobalt Exports Could Tighten Further as Processing Competition Rises

DRC cobalt exports may tighten further because the new quota system limits available material while demand for non-Chinese supply grows. Feedstock availability was already restricted by the earlier export suspension. That tightness now meets new competition from western stockpiling and rerouting efforts. Consequently, DRC cobalt supply dynamics could become more constrained in 2026.

Indonesia adds another layer to the story. Cobalt output growth there may slow if nickel ore quotas are cut, because Indonesian cobalt is a by-product of nickel. Recycled cobalt and mixed hydroxide precipitate supply are also unlikely to fully close the gap. Therefore, global cobalt feedstock availability may stay tighter than many buyers expect.

China is also preparing its response. The removal of export rebates for ternary cathode materials and precursors suggests Beijing may increasingly favor domestic value retention. If feedstock tightens further, China may prioritize its own battery chain over overseas buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt exports are becoming part of a broader competition over who controls refined materials, not just mine output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The cobalt market is entering a more political phase. The DRC is still the core supplier, but the direction of its exports is becoming more contested. If quotas remain tight and western buyers gain more access, cobalt may become less about volume growth and more about strategic allocation.