Airbus Raises Long-Term Aircraft Demand Forecast

Airbus

Global Aircraft Demand to 2044

Airbus has revised its long-term aircraft demand forecast, projecting strong growth through 2044. The company now expects demand for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft worldwide, a 2% increase from last year’s forecast of 42,430 units.

Passenger jets will dominate deliveries, with 34,250 single-aisle and 8,200 widebody aircraft. Airbus also anticipates demand for 970 freighters, reflecting global trade growth. The in-service fleet is forecast to nearly double from 24,730 in 2024 to 49,210 by 2044, with replacements, growth, and retained jets all contributing to this expansion.

Regional Growth and Market Drivers

The forecast highlights Asia and the Middle East as key regions for traffic growth. Domestic Indian travel is expected to grow at 8.9% annually, underscoring the region’s importance in future demand. Airbus projects passenger traffic growth at 3.6% annually, alongside increases in global trade, GDP, and population.

The revised outlook comes as the aerospace sector prepares for the Paris Air Show. Supply chain challenges, US tariffs, parts shortages, and ongoing investigations remain significant hurdles. However, long-term macroeconomic and demographic factors are expected to outweigh near-term uncertainties.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus’ upward revision signals confidence in long-term demand despite current industry headwinds. The sharp focus on Asia and India reflects the global shift in aviation growth drivers. Supply chain fragility remains a risk, but structural demand growth appears resilient.