DRC Rejects M23 Rebel Ceasefire as Hoax Amid Escalating Conflict

DRC

UN Warns of Regional War as M23 Rebels Continue Advance in Eastern DRC

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has dismissed the recent ceasefire declaration by the M23 rebel group as a "hoax," citing the continued military actions in the region. This comes after M23 rebels seized another town in eastern DRC, intensifying the ongoing conflict and raising concerns ahead of upcoming mediation talks.

M23 Advances Despite Ceasefire Claim

The M23 rebel group, which the DRC accuses of being backed by Rwanda, has taken control of Nyabibwe, a town on the eastern shore of Lake Kivu. Nyabibwe lies south of Goma, which the M23 captured in late January. Following this, the rebels declared a unilateral ceasefire, supposedly to facilitate peace talks scheduled to take place in Tanzania on February 8, 2025. However, the DRC government believes that the ceasefire is merely a tactic to deceive the international community.

DRC Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner condemned the ceasefire, claiming it was meant to "hoodwink" the world. Wagner pointed out that, instead of withdrawing their forces, the M23 has continued its actions, further complicating the situation. She also threatened the use of force to reclaim Goma if the rebels fail to vacate the area.

Economic and Regional Implications of the Conflict

The UN has highlighted that the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC is largely driven by the control of the country’s vast natural resources. Goma, a major mineral trading hub, particularly for tantalum, tin, and tungsten, plays a crucial role in this struggle. In 2023, DRC’s tantalum concentrate production, also known as tantalite or coltan, reached 6,095 tonnes, according to the International Tin Supply Chain Initiative.

The UN also reported that Rubaya, a key coltan mining town controlled by M23 rebels, generates around $800,000 per month in taxes from its mineral production and trade. This economic significance adds to the stakes of the conflict, as control of such resources is vital for the parties involved.

Growing Regional Tensions and International Concerns

While M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka claimed that the group does not plan to expand its territorial control for the time being, the situation remains volatile. The upcoming peace talks, involving Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, are seen as a critical opportunity to address the crisis.

However, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed concerns about the escalating violence, warning that the M23 offensive could lead to a broader regional war. The conflict's impact could extend to the mining regions and potentially affect oil developments in neighboring Rwanda and Uganda. In response to the growing tensions, Uganda has deployed 2,000 soldiers into DRC, adding to the 4,000 troops already stationed in northeast DRC to combat the Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces.

Fossil Fuel Transition Platform Gains New Push From the UN

UN, Antonio Guterres

The fossil fuel transition platform gained new momentum after UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for a dedicated global forum. He said the fossil fuel transition platform should bring together producers, consumers, financiers, and civil society. He also said the fossil fuel transition platform must align investment, energy security, and climate goals. As a result, the debate is shifting from broad ambition to practical coordination.

This matters because global progress has slowed since countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28. Energy security concerns have since moved higher on the policy agenda. However, climate pressure has not eased. Therefore, governments now face a harder balancing act between near-term stability and long-term decarbonisation.

Energy Security and Climate Goals Now Need a Shared Framework

Energy security and climate goals are increasingly colliding in public policy. Many governments still worry about supply disruption and price shocks. At the same time, they must reduce emissions and build cleaner systems. Consequently, a common platform could help reduce strategic confusion.

Guterres argued that shifting away from fossil fuels can cut emissions, improve stability, and support development. That message is important because some policymakers still frame climate action as a cost burden. However, cleaner energy can also strengthen sovereignty and reduce dependence on volatile fuel markets. Therefore, the argument is becoming more economic as well as environmental.

Clean Energy Transition Faces Political Resistance

Clean energy transition efforts still face strong political resistance. Guterres warned that some fossil fuel interests continue to slow progress and spread doubt. That resistance matters because it can delay investment and weaken policy confidence. As a result, the pace of transition remains uneven across regions.

The political tension is now visible at the international level. The IEA has strongly supported the clean energy transition, but not every government agrees with that direction. Some leaders want energy policy to focus more narrowly on supply and affordability. Meanwhile, climate science continues to show that emissions pressure is still rising.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This proposal matters because the next phase of the energy transition needs more than slogans. It needs a forum that can manage trade-offs between security, affordability, and decarbonisation. If such a platform gains real political support, it could help turn a fractured transition into a more coordinated industrial shift.

International Seabed Mining Plan Rejected by ISA

The Metals Company

UN Authority Halts Canadian Mining Proposal in Pacific

The UN-affiliated International Seabed Authority (ISA) has firmly rejected a Canadian company’s proposal for international seabed mining before formal regulations are in place. The Metals Company sought to obtain U.S. exploration licenses for mining operations in the Pacific Ocean. However, the ISA emphasized that any commercial activity beyond national jurisdictions without its authorization violates international law.

Legal Dispute Over Jurisdiction and Environmental Concerns

The U.S. has not ratified the treaty establishing the ISA. Therefore, The Metals Company argued it could proceed under a domestic mining law. Despite this claim, the ISA reiterated that “unilateral exploitation of resources that belong to all humanity is prohibited.” Environmental groups and several nations oppose international seabed mining, citing concerns about marine damage and its impact on climate change.

Regulatory Uncertainty Continues in Deep-Sea Mining

Currently, the ISA has issued 31 exploration licenses in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone but has not approved any actual mineral extraction. The agency remains in prolonged negotiations over regulatory frameworks for international seabed mining, particularly for nodules rich in cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements. Tensions between national laws and global governance are likely to persist as interest in deep-sea minerals grows.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The standoff over international seabed mining underscores a growing clash between resource nationalism and global environmental governance. Until regulatory clarity emerges, miners seeking to tap seabed resources face mounting legal, ethical, and diplomatic hurdles.

Brazil rare earths Rio Grande Rise: offshore claim targets critical minerals

Brazil

Brazil rare earths Rio Grande Rise ambitions intensify as its UN claim advances. Brazil rare earths Rio Grande Rise could unlock a vast offshore resource. Brazil rare earths Rio Grande Rise also reinforces the nation’s Blue Amazon strategy. Officials aim to expand rights over mining, energy, and fisheries.

Offshore scope and resource potential

The Rio Grande Rise spans about 500,000km² in the South Atlantic. It sits roughly 1,200km off Rio Grande do Sul. Studies flag rare earths alongside red clays, basalt, and manganese crusts. These deposits include NdPr, Dy, Tb, and other magnet metals. Therefore, Brazil sees high-value opportunities for batteries and clean tech.

Brazil already holds significant rare earth reserves onshore. The claim could extend access into a new marine province. Meanwhile, UNCLOS procedures guide shelf limits and sovereign rights. If approved, Brazil gains stronger control over exploration. That would accelerate investment screening and early baseline surveys.

Strategic stakes for supply chains and energy

The bid aligns with Brazil’s Blue Amazon development plan. The plan spans offshore minerals, renewables, and hydrocarbons. Global rare earth reserves reached 130mn tonnes in 2023. Brazil holds about 16%, behind Vietnam and tied with China. As a result, diversified offshore feed could bolster security of supply.

Downstream industries need stable magnet and catalyst inputs. EVs, wind turbines, and electronics drive that demand. However, environmental safeguards and data transparency remain vital. Therefore, Brazil must balance exploration with marine stewardship.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This seabed push is about leverage, not near-term output. The value lies in optionality during tight rare earth cycles. Watch UN milestones, baseline ecology work, and any pilot sampling plans.

Goma Falls to Rebels, Sparking Regional War Fears

DRC

The DRC's mining hub, Goma, now falls under M23 control, escalating regional tensions. This takeover disrupts vital mineral supplies and raises fears of a wider conflict.

Mineral Supply Disrupted by Rebel Takeover

The M23 militant group seized Goma, a crucial mineral trading center for tantalum, tin, and tungsten. Consequently, this action directly impacts the global supply of these critical metals. North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, key producing regions, face severe disruption. Specifically, the DRC, a major tantalum concentrate producer, saw M23 seize Rubaya and Masisi territory earlier in 2024. Furthermore, the UN reports widespread illegal mining and human rights abuses, transforming these minerals into "conflict minerals."

Regional Conflict Threatens Energy Projects

Additionally, the conflict jeopardizes energy projects in the region. For instance, Rwanda's oil and gas development plans near Lake Kivu are at risk. Similarly, Uganda's oil fields, developed by TotalEnergies and CNOOC, face potential destabilization. Moreover, the DRC's own oil and gas blocks near Lake Kivu and Lake Albert are also under threat. Consequently, diplomatic relations between the DRC and Rwanda have reached a critical low, with the DRC withdrawing diplomats and closing Rwanda's consulate. Ultimately, the UN and the US call for urgent dialogue to prevent further escalation.

COP31 climate summit in Turkey cements a split-host model for 2026

Cop 31

COP31 climate summit in Turkey will take place in 2026 under a Turkey-Australia hosting compromise. The deal ends months of uncertainty that threatened multilateral climate action. Australia will steer negotiations, while Turkey will run the on-the-ground conference.

Leaders framed the compromise as a practical win for climate diplomacy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned that a venue deadlock would damage global cooperation. Therefore, the agreement protects process stability as governments chase tougher emissions and finance goals.

Australia’s negotiation role elevates Pacific climate finance

Australia will use its COP role to spotlight Pacific climate finance. Chris Bowen will chair negotiations and coordinate with Turkey’s COP presidency. Officials plan a pre-COP meeting on the Pacific Resilience Facility to accelerate adaptation funding. The Pacific Islands Forum created the facility to boost disaster resilience.

COP31 logistics clarity reduces the risk of a Bonn fallback

The compromise keeps the 2026 summit from moving to the UN Climate Change Secretariat venue. That fallback would have cut political momentum during COP30 in Brazil. Therefore, COP31 climate summit in Turkey now gives clearer timelines for diplomacy and business planning. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is positioned to host COP32 in 2027 in Addis Ababa. The African Group has endorsed the bid, which could speed final approval.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This COP31 split role may speed talks, but it can blur accountability. However, stronger climate finance can accelerate grid metals demand for copper, aluminium, and rare earths. Therefore, suppliers should track policy signals that affect permitting, trade, and strategic stockpiles.

Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks enter decisive week

Iran–E3

Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks face a decisive deadline in Geneva on Tuesday. The Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks aim to avert the reimposition of international penalties under the JCPOA’s “snapback” clause. However, the E3 warned it could trigger snapback by end-August unless Iran addresses urgent nuclear concerns. Therefore, the Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks now hinge on concrete proposals that reduce weaponization risk and restore negotiating momentum.

What is at stake in Geneva

The meeting seeks a last-ditch formula to avoid automatic sanctions restoration. Iran’s deputy foreign ministers will meet E3 and EU counterparts for the third time this year. Meanwhile, tensions rose after the June Iran–Israel conflict stalled US-Iran diplomacy. As a result, negotiators must translate general intent into verifiable commitments on enrichment limits and monitoring. The Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks must show tangible progress to justify any deadline relief.

The snapback clock and leverage

The E3 set end-August to decide on triggering snapback, which completes in 30 days. If untriggered, certain JCPOA-related restrictions expire on 18 October. However, the E3 floated extending the end-August deadline if Iran reopens talks with the US. Iran rejected the offer, arguing the E3 lacks legal standing to trigger snapback. China and Russia signal no appetite to join a snapback move. Therefore, the EU and E3 must balance legal contention with the need for non-proliferation credibility.

Possible outcomes and market implications

A narrow de-escalation deal could pause snapback while talks continue. Such an outcome would likely require caps on enrichment, enhanced IAEA access, and a sequencing plan. However, failure would restore broad UN-level constraints and complicate trade, shipping, and insurance. Energy and metals flows could see renewed risk premia if Gulf tensions rise. Therefore, companies should model compliance scenarios tied to snapback timing and secondary sanctions exposure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Interim guardrails remain the most realistic path given political calendars and trust deficits. Expect a short window where verification steps trade for limited timeline relief. Watch for language on enrichment ceilings and inspection access as signals of durability.

ADNOC’s Al-Jaber Shifts Tone on Climate: “Energy Is the Solution”

ADNOC

From Cop-28 climate diplomacy to Houston’s energy realism, al-Jaber emphasizes hydrocarbons’ future and new U.S. investments.

ADNOC chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, presented a new stance on the climate-energy debate. Just two years after urging oil executives to embrace decarbonization, al-Jaber declared, "Energy realism is taking center stage" and framed the energy industry as “the solution, not the problem.”

Al-Jaber’s remarks mark a notable shift from his 2023 statements, when he stressed the oil and gas sector’s responsibility to cut emissions and aid in global decarbonization. Back then, as president of the UN Cop-28 climate summit in the UAE, he promoted a call to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

From Responsibility to Realism

In Houston, al-Jaber described his earlier climate warnings as part of a strategy to bring “realism and pragmatism” into climate dialogue. He also claimed the climate narrative had been “hijacked” and required correction. “We succeeded in making the energy industry part of the solution,” he said, reflecting a broader effort to reframe hydrocarbons as essential to the global energy transition.

At Cop-28, instead of endorsing a fossil fuel phase-out, al-Jaber led a compromise that called for a gradual transition. Now, he suggests the sector is driving climate solutions, not delaying them.

ADNOC’s XRG Targets U.S. Natural Gas and Petrochemicals

Al-Jaber also introduced ADNOC’s new energy investment arm, XRG, as a vehicle for major U.S. investments. He called U.S. energy markets an “absolute imperative” and revealed that XRG will soon announce large-scale investments, especially in natural gas infrastructure and petrochemicals.

Last year, ADNOC took a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s hydrogen project at Baytown, Texas. Al-Jaber said similar deals are on the table, suggesting a strategic expansion of ADNOC’s low-carbon portfolio via U.S. partnerships.

The policy shift in Washington, where climate change was recently described as a “side effect” of development by U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright, has created a more favorable investment climate for fossil fuel-focused ventures.

Al-Jaber’s evolving rhetoric signals a realignment of climate ambition and hydrocarbon strategy, positioning Middle Eastern producers as both investors and influencers in the next phase of energy transition.

The Metals Company to Seek US Deep-Sea Mining Permits

The Metals Company

The Metals Company moves to secure U.S. licenses for Pacific seabed mining, challenging UN authority over deep-sea resources.

U.S. Exploration Bid Sparks Global Governance Tensions

The Metals Company, a Canadian miner, plans to apply for deep-sea mining permits from the U.S. Department of Commerce. This move targets the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), a 1.7 million mi² seabed in the Pacific Ocean rich in polymetallic nodules. These nodules contain high-value resources like manganese, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements.

The company is seeking licenses under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980. This law allows NOAA to issue mining permits for areas outside national jurisdictions. However, this action bypasses the United Nations' International Seabed Authority (ISA), which claims global governance over seabed resources.

ISA Pushback and Regulatory Uncertainty

The ISA’s Secretary-General Leticia Carvahlo strongly criticized the move during the agency’s 30th annual session. She reiterated the ISA’s jurisdiction over all deep-sea mineral exploration activities under international law.

The Metals Company previously held three ISA exploration licenses and had planned to apply for commercial rights. But delays in finalizing ISA’s exploitation regulations pushed the company toward seeking unilateral U.S. approval instead. NOAA has never issued a commercial seabed mining license, though it currently holds two active exploration licenses from 1984.

The ISA has issued 31 exploration permits globally but is still working on a regulatory framework. This includes establishing benefit-sharing mechanisms and environmental oversight, key points of contention among ISA members. In the past, ISA has even blocked activity in areas NOAA had approved by labeling them “environmental interest zones.”

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Metals Company’s pivot toward U.S. permits may redefine seabed mining governance. If successful, it could fracture multilateral oversight and prompt other nations or firms to seek alternative legal routes. With the critical minerals race intensifying, seabed politics may become as contested as the resources themselves.

Brazil Russia Latin America stability takes centre stage after Maduro arrest

Brazil Russia Latin America

Brazil Russia Latin America stability has moved to the forefront after the dramatic US arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin used a bilateral call to align positions on Venezuela and to push for a coordinated diplomatic response. Both leaders framed the situation as a test of sovereignty and non-intervention principles that will shape broader Brazil Russia Latin America stability in the coming months.

Brazil Russia Latin America stability and the Venezuela shock

Brazil Russia Latin America stability is now directly linked to how the region manages the fallout from the US raid in Caracas. Lula and Putin agreed to champion Venezuela’s sovereignty and national interests at the UN Security Council and within the expanded Brics grouping, signalling a more assertive counterweight to Washington’s approach. As a result, Brazil is positioning itself not only as a neighbour seeking regional calm but also as a bridge between Western powers and a Russia-aligned camp. Meanwhile, Russia is using the crisis to reinforce its narrative that regime-change style operations undermine global order and must face diplomatic pushback.

Brics diplomacy and the risks for regional supply chains

Brazil Russia Latin America stability also depends on how Brics diplomacy evolves around Venezuela’s crisis. The two countries plan to deepen coordination with fellow Brics members such as China, India and new entrants including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, creating a wider political platform for contesting US actions. This alignment could spill over into trade, defence and energy ties, reshaping investment flows and potentially complicating Western access to key Latin American supply chains. However, heightened geopolitical rivalry around Venezuela also raises the risk of sanctions, financial volatility and policy uncertainty that could weigh on regional growth and cross-border projects.

What Brazil Russia Latin America stability means for business

For companies, Brazil Russia Latin America stability will be measured less by rhetoric and more by how institutions manage the crisis. Investors will watch whether Brazil can maintain a balanced stance that protects its US and European ties while expanding strategic cooperation with Russia. At the same time, renewed tension around Venezuela could disrupt trade corridors, alter perceptions of political risk and influence capital allocation across sectors such as agriculture, mining, logistics and energy services. As a result, risk management, scenario planning and closer monitoring of diplomatic signals will become essential for firms exposed to Latin American markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The emerging Brazil Russia Latin America stability axis highlights how Venezuela’s crisis has become a global test case for sovereignty, great-power competition and energy geopolitics. For market participants, the key question is whether this diplomatic alignment produces a managed de-escalation or ushers in a more fragmented regional order that complicates long-term investment decisions.

Brazil’s Cop 30 Climate Agenda Faces Criticism Over Silence on Fossil Fuel Phase-Out

Ibama

Activists praise climate finance ambition but question Brazil’s commitment as oil exploration persists.

Brazil’s ambitions to make UN Cop 30 a landmark event for climate action received mixed reactions this week after summit president Andre Correa do Lago released a letter outlining the summit’s goals. While the letter emphasizes a dramatic increase in climate financing—from $300 billion to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035, critics argue it fails to address fossil fuels, the leading driver of global warming.

Activists Applaud Climate Finance Push, Slam Fossil Fuel Omission

Climate scientist Karin Bruning, affiliated with the University of Heidelberg and MIT, welcomed the focus on cooperation but warned that “Brazil must pull its own weight.” She criticized the government’s ongoing support for fossil fuel exploration, especially in Brazil’s equatorial margin, a sensitive region near a freshwater barrier reef.

Bruning noted that Brazil, rich in renewable energy, should avoid returning to “past solutions” such as oil drilling. The Foz do Amazonas basin, holding an estimated 10 billion barrels of crude, has been at the center of controversy. State-run Petrobras has repeatedly sought to explore the area but faced consistent licensing blocks from Ibama, Brazil’s environmental agency.

Think Tanks Raise Red Flags Over Fossil Fuel Silence

While Brazil’s Observatorio do Clima praised the letter for giving Paris Agreement negotiations to credible experts, it criticized the lack of a clear fossil fuel phase-out strategy. The organization warned that ignoring “the elephant in the room” undercuts Brazil’s global credibility.

Think tank E3G’s Kaysie Brown acknowledged that the letter does recognize the urgency of climate action, especially regarding funding for developing countries. However, Brazil’s resistance to align fully with the first global stocktake (GST) and its implementation roadmap, as agreed at Cop 29 in Baku, leaves open questions about true commitment.

As Cop 30 nears, pressure will grow on Brazil to clarify its stance on fossil fuels and prove that its climate diplomacy matches its domestic policy direction.