Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply deal strengthens US battery metals recycling

Aqua Metals

Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply agreement with Westwin Elements marks a key step for US battery metals recycling. The US recycler will provide 500-1,000 t/yr of recycled nickel carbonate to Westwin under a long-term pathway. The Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply deal is expected to be worth about $12mn/yr at today’s nickel prices. Both partners will depend on new commercial plants scheduled to come online before deliveries begin in 2027.

Nickel carbonate offtake anchors new US refining capacity

The agreement gives Westwin an early anchor for battery-grade feedstock from domestic recycling rather than primary mining. Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply will support Westwin’s planned nickel refining operations, which aim to produce high-purity material for battery and specialty alloy markets. As a result, the deal helps de-risk Westwin’s project pipeline by pre-qualifying a secure source of recycled nickel.

Aqua Metals has already passed Westwin’s production testing and qualification process for battery-grade nickel carbonate. This performance validation is critical because cathode and precursor producers maintain strict impurity thresholds. Therefore, the Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply arrangement signals technical confidence in the company’s hydrometallurgical recycling flowsheet.

Recycling gains ground in critical minerals strategy

The partnership reflects a broader shift toward closed-loop battery metals supply chains in North America. Policymakers increasingly view recycled nickel as a strategic complement to mined supply, especially for EV and stationary storage markets. Meanwhile, investors favor projects that combine ESG benefits with exposure to high-value nickel chemicals.

By locking in an offtake pathway ahead of full-scale commissioning, both firms position themselves for an expected demand upturn toward 2027. If execution stays on track, the collaboration could become a reference model for similar nickel, cobalt and lithium recycling deals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement underscores how offtake-linked recycling hubs are becoming central to North America’s battery raw materials strategy. The commercial validation of Aqua Metals’ nickel carbonate also highlights the maturing economics of hydrometallurgical recycling versus imported intermediates. Market participants should watch how quickly the partners convert this non-binding framework into bankable, long-term contracts.

Battery Metals Mining Diesel Disruption Raises New Supply Chain Risk

Battery Metals Mining

Battery metals mining diesel disruption could become an immediate operational risk if the Middle East fuel crisis continues to restrict diesel and gasoil flows. Mining operations that rely heavily on diesel for haulage, transport, drilling, and remote-site activity are the most directly exposed.

The pressure will not affect every part of the battery supply chain equally. Upstream mining faces the clearest fuel availability and cost risk, while refining and processing may feel the impact later through logistics delays, higher freight costs, and reduced primary feedstock availability.

Battery metals mining diesel disruption is most relevant for parts of southern Africa, Australia, and southeast Asia. These regions host major copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel operations, but their fuel exposure differs sharply by power source, transport route, and mine configuration.

Southern African Copper and Cobalt Face Fuel Logistics Pressure

The DRC and Zambia could face early pressure if diesel flows remain disrupted. Ports in South Africa and Tanzania reportedly had around two months of diesel stock moving inland, but mining operators may need to reduce fuel use by mid-April if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon.

The risk is significant because the copper-cobalt belt depends on diesel for logistics, open-pit haulage, mine-site activity, and some ore concentration processes. The DRC relies heavily on hydroelectricity for power, but diesel generators remain important in areas with limited grid access and for backup supply.

Zambia also plays a crucial logistics role between the copperbelt and key export ports, including Durban. Fuel shortages along these routes could slow truck movements, disrupt concentrate and cathode shipments, and add costs across copper and cobalt supply chains.

Australia Lithium and Indonesia Nickel Show Different Exposure Profiles

Australia appears acutely exposed because it imports most of its diesel from Asia, which in turn depends heavily on Middle East supply. The country has already lowered fuel standards in preparation for supply chain disruption, while cancelled fuel shipments have raised concerns about supply from the second half of April.

Hard-rock lithium mining in Australia could be one of the most fuel-sensitive parts of the battery metals chain. Major spodumene operations such as Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Mt Marion rely on diesel for haulage, drilling, and remote-site logistics, even though crushing, grinding, and concentration use more electricity.

Indonesia’s nickel sector is more insulated from immediate fuel disruption because many processing operations rely on captive coal-fired power. However, nickel mining still needs diesel for extraction and internal logistics, while the sector remains exposed to sulfur, sulfuric acid, shipping, and broader energy cost risks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Battery metals mining diesel disruption shows that energy security is now part of critical mineral security. The market often focuses on ore grades and processing capacity, but fuel logistics can decide whether copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel supply actually reaches the next stage of the value chain.

Patriot Battery Metals tantalum strategy advances in Quebec

Patriot Battery Metals

By-product pathway could unlock value

Patriot Battery Metals tantalum evaluation advances at Quebec’s Shaakichiuwaanaan project. The explorer will assess economic feasibility as a by-product. It could also recover gallium and cesium. The move complements its lithium pegmatite focus in James Bay. Patriot Battery Metals tantalum plan targets diversified revenues.

Resource scale underpins optionality

Tantalum supports capacitors, resistors, and superalloys. Demand stems from electronics and high-temperature applications. By-product streams can lower unit costs. However, clean separation and bankable offtakes remain essential. Stable pricing and ESG traceability will also matter.

Scale gives optionality for recovery circuits. The indicated resource totals 108mn t at 1.4pc lithium oxide. Grades include 166ppm tantalum pentoxide and 66ppm gallium. As a result, future flowsheets may integrate tantalum capture. Meanwhile, James Bay infrastructure supports development timelines.

A Canadian source would aid resilient supply chains. It could reduce reliance on conflicted tantalum imports. Therefore, Patriot Battery Metals tantalum opportunity aligns with critical minerals policy. Investors will watch metallurgy, capex, and offtake progress.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Patriot’s by-product strategy is a prudent hedge against lithium price volatility. If metallurgy proves robust, tantalum could enhance project economics and attract strategic partners.

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement closes high-stakes nickel dispute

Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement ends a three-year legal battle over major nickel and copper assets in Brazil. The $215mn payment closes Sibanye Stillwater’s failed acquisition of the Santa Rita nickel and Serrote copper mines. As a result, the case now stands as a key precedent for mining M&A risk and contract enforcement.

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement follows the company’s decision to terminate a $1bn deal signed in 2021. The agreement covered Appian’s Atlantic Nickel and MVV businesses, which own Santa Rita and Serrote. However, Sibanye walked away in January 2022, citing a “geotechnical event” at Santa Rita as a material adverse effect. The UK High Court later ruled that the incident did not meet this threshold, leaving Sibanye liable for damages.

Santa Rita is one of the world’s largest open-pit nickel sulphide operations with a 6.5mn t/yr plant. Serrote is a sizeable copper-gold mine designed to produce about 20,000 t/yr of copper concentrate from a 4.1mn t/yr plant. Together, these assets would have anchored Sibanye’s diversification into battery metals. Instead, the Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement now replaces the growth story with a sizeable cash cost and reputational hit.

Legal defeat underscores limits of “material adverse effect” claims

The dispute highlights how courts interpret material adverse effect clauses in mining deals. Judges expect buyers to understand normal operational and geological risks before signing. Therefore, routine geotechnical issues rarely justify tearing up a $1bn transaction. The High Court found that Santa Rita’s event did not fundamentally damage the mine’s economics or long-term viability.

As a result, the ruling signals tougher standards for future mining M&A terminations. Buyers can no longer rely on moderate technical issues or short-term volatility to escape deals. Instead, they must show truly exceptional damage to asset value or performance. This outcome will likely push acquirers to tighten due diligence, refine risk pricing and draft narrower escape clauses. It also reinforces sellers’ confidence when defending contracts in court.

For Sibanye, the settlement removes a major legal overhang and ongoing litigation expense. However, it also crystallises a $215mn cash outflow with no asset in return. Investors will scrutinise how this affects balance-sheet flexibility, especially as the group still targets exposure to battery metals. Appian, meanwhile, secures compensation and can refocus on optimising Santa Rita and Serrote or preparing new exit options.

Strategic lessons for mining and battery metals M&A

The Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement sends a clear signal across the battery metals value chain. Strategic diversification into nickel and copper remains vital for miners exposed to PGMs or coal. However, failed execution now carries higher legal and financial risk. Mining companies must match bold decarbonisation narratives with disciplined transaction structures and contingency planning.

For prospective buyers of nickel and copper assets, the case highlights three core lessons. First, conduct deeper technical due diligence around pit stability, tailings and resource models. Second, align contract language with realistic risk scenarios, not best-case assumptions. Third, maintain transparent communication with counterparties when operational issues emerge. These steps can reduce the odds of costly courtroom battles.

Downstream, stainless and battery supply-chain players will watch how Santa Rita and Serrote evolve under Appian’s control. Any future sale process will likely embed stricter protections for both buyer and seller. Over time, this precedent may raise transaction costs but also improve deal quality in the global energy-transition metals market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This settlement underlines how aggressively courts now police “material adverse effect” claims in mining M&A. Buyers that over-promise on battery metals diversification, then attempt to reverse course, face growing legal and reputational consequences. The next phase of nickel and copper deal-making will favor disciplined acquirers who price risk accurately and honour their contracts.

Patriot Expands Quebec Lithium Resource, Cementing Largest Pegmatite Deposit in the Americas

Patriot Battery Metals

Patriot's Shaakichiuwaanaan Project Emerges as a Strategic Lithium Asset

Patriot Battery Metals has increased indicated resources by 30% at its Quebec-based Shaakichiuwaanaan Lithium Project, reinforcing its position as the largest lithium pegmatite resource in the Americas. This development positions Canada as a growing heavyweight in the global battery metals supply chain.

The updated resource now totals 108 million metric tonnes, grading 1.4% lithium oxide. This equates to 3.75 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) — a critical input for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems. Located in the mineral-rich Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, the deposit is also the eighth largest lithium pegmatite resource globally, according to Patriot.

Strategic Metals Strengthen Project Value Beyond Lithium

In addition to lithium, the study revealed significant concentrations of tantalum, cesium, and gallium. These strategic metals play essential roles in electronics, semiconductors, and aerospace alloys. Their presence enhances the project’s economic potential and aligns with North America’s broader push for critical mineral independence.

Patriot’s advancement comes at a time when global supply chains are recalibrating around domestic resources. With China and other suppliers tightening controls on strategic materials, Western governments and manufacturers are increasingly turning to Canadian and U.S. projects for secure sourcing.

Feasibility Study Targeted for 2025

Patriot Battery Metals plans to release a maiden ore reserve and feasibility study by Q3 2025, based on the latest resource estimates. This timeline reflects growing investor interest in North American lithium development amid surging demand from the EV and energy sectors.

Meanwhile, the project's location in Quebec offers distinct advantages, including renewable hydroelectric power, government support, and proximity to U.S. manufacturing hubs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Patriot’s 30% increase in lithium resources signals a strong step forward in North America’s bid for battery metal self-reliance. With a diversified mix of strategic metals and a globally ranked resource base, the Shaakichiuwaanaan Project stands poised to become a cornerstone in the Western critical minerals ecosystem.

Surge Battery Metals Targets 86,000 t/yr LCE from Nevada Lithium Project

Surge Battery Metals

Nevada North Lithium Project’s Scale and Cost Outlook

Surge Battery Metals announced that its planned Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) could produce 86,000 tonnes per year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The integrated operation will combine mining and processing at a site northeast of Wells, Nevada. The study, released on 9 June, projects a 42-year mine life and an operating cost of $5,097 per tonne, placing it among the relatively low-cost lithium projects.

The company intends to establish an on-site processing facility that will use sulfuric acid leaching to produce high-purity lithium carbonate. This output will be further refined into battery-grade LCE, enhancing its appeal for electric vehicle and energy storage applications.

Market Assumptions and Development Timeline

Surge’s project economics are based on an assumed LCE selling price of $24,000 per tonne. The study outlines a 6.5-year development period from early works to full commissioning, structured into two phases. While the company has not disclosed a firm start date for operations, the long mine life and integrated design highlight its potential role in the U.S. lithium supply chain.

The Nevada project comes at a time when North America is prioritizing domestic lithium production to reduce reliance on imports and support clean energy policies. With its projected scale, NNLP could contribute significantly to meeting future EV battery demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Surge Battery Metals’ Nevada project underscores the growing race to secure low-cost lithium production in North America. While timelines remain uncertain, the projected scale and economics suggest strong potential. Success will depend on financing, permitting, and the stability of long-term lithium pricing.

Global Recycled Metals Output Rises as China and Emerging Regions Expand Capacity

Recycled Metals

Global recycled metals output increased further in 2025 as China maintained its leading position and emerging regions expanded recycling capacity. Production of recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc reached about 59.2mn t, up 5.6% from a year earlier.

Global recycled metals output is becoming more important to non-ferrous supply security as mining, processing and trade flows face rising geopolitical and cost pressures. Recycling now provides a larger secondary source of industrial metal units for manufacturers, smelters and battery supply chains.

Global recycled metals output accounted for around 34% of total non-ferrous metal production in 2025. The sector also delivered cumulative savings of about 1.2bn t of primary mineral resources, underlining its growing role in resource conservation.

The growth shows that recycled metals are no longer a secondary environmental story. They are becoming a core part of industrial raw material strategy across copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and battery metals.

China Leads as Regional Recycling Capacity Expands

China remained the world’s largest recycled base metals producer in 2025, with output of 20.57mn t. That represented 34.7% of global production.

The country’s scale gives it a major role in recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc supply. It also strengthens China’s position across non-ferrous metals at a time when primary raw material security is under pressure.

Europe produced more than 10mn t of recycled base metals, while the US produced more than 6mn t. India and southeast Asia reached around 6mn t and 4mn t, respectively.

These figures show that recycling capacity is becoming more geographically distributed. Emerging regions are no longer only consumers of recycled raw materials. They are becoming processing centres in their own right.

Battery-related recycling is also growing quickly. Nickel, cobalt and lithium recovery is supporting the new energy industry as electric vehicle and energy storage supply chains look for more secure material sources.

China aims to increase domestic recycled material recovery to 23mn t by 2030 under its next five-year plan. That target implies annual growth of around 7%.

The country is also expected to strengthen recycled product certification and explore the inclusion of recycled materials in carbon trading systems. This could make recycled metal more valuable for customers seeking traceable and lower-carbon supply.

Trade Flows and Technology Move Toward Asia

Global recycled raw material trade is becoming more regional, more Asia-focused and more diversified. Europe and North America remain major exporters of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock.

Europe exports around 2mn t/yr of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock, while North America exports about 4.2mn t/yr. China and India remain the largest importers, with imports exceeding 4mn t and 2mn t, respectively.

Southeast Asia is becoming a key transshipment hub. Regional recycled aluminium feedstock trade reached about 1.3mn t of imports and 900,000t of exports.

Black mass from spent lithium-ion batteries is also increasingly moving toward Asian processing centres. This reflects Asia’s stronger battery materials processing base and growing demand for recovered nickel, cobalt and lithium units.

Technology is improving the recycling value chain. Advances in laser sorting, intelligent dismantling, multi-metal battery recovery and digital process control are raising recovery rates and product quality.

Leading producers have achieved recycling rates above 94% for aluminium and 95% for lithium. These levels show how recycling is moving closer to industrial-grade resource recovery rather than simple scrap handling.

New products are also expanding. High-strength recycled aluminium alloys, high-purity recycled copper and recycled rare-earth permanent magnets are gaining traction.

This matters because recycled metal must meet customer specifications before it can displace primary material. Better sorting, cleaner chemistry and stronger certification will determine how much recycled metal can enter high-value applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recycling is becoming a strategic metals supply pillar, not just a sustainability tool. The next competitive edge will come from producers that can turn complex scrap and battery waste into certified, high-purity and customer-ready materials.

Volkswagen Secures Long-Term Lithium Supply with Patriot Battery Metals

Patriot Battery Metals

Volkswagen, through its battery subsidiary PowerCo, has sealed a decade-long offtake agreement with Patriot Battery Metals, a Canadian lithium explorer, to source 100,000 metric tonnes per year (t/yr) of spodumene concentrate (SC). This deal is a strategic move to secure critical lithium resources as Volkswagen continues to expand its electric vehicle (EV) and battery production globally.

Patriot’s Shaakichiuwaanaan Asset Powers the Deal

The spodumene concentrate will be supplied from Patriot's Shaakichiuwaanaan Mineral Resources in Quebec, Canada. Notably, this resource is the largest lithium pegmatite deposit in the Americas and the eighth-largest globally, making it a vital supply chain asset for lithium-ion battery production. The concentrate will have a target grade of 5.5% lithium oxide, ideal for battery applications.

PowerCo plans to use the raw materials to fuel its gigafactories in Europe and North America, including its St. Thomas, Canada facility, which is set to be its largest cell factory, boasting a production capacity of up to 90 GWh per year.

Volkswagen Invests in Patriot and Future Lithium Conversion

As part of the partnership, Volkswagen has invested $48 million for a 9.9% stake in Patriot Battery Metals, signaling its commitment to long-term lithium sourcing. The deal also hints at future collaborations, including the potential development of a lithium conversion facility to ensure supply chain resilience and further vertical integration.

Volkswagen’s EV Push Faces Challenges

Volkswagen has delivered 506,500 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) globally from January to September 2024, a 4.7% decline year on year. Despite overall growth in North America, BEV deliveries in the US fell by 26%, reflecting competitive challenges in the region.

In Europe, Volkswagen remains dominant with a 19% market share in the BEV segment, reaffirming its stronghold. To bolster its EV ecosystem, the German automaker also formed a $5.8 billion joint venture with Rivian in November 2024 to advance software and electronics architectures for scalable EV platforms.

Strategic Significance

This agreement underscores the importance of securing stable, long-term access to critical minerals like lithium as automakers ramp up EV production. It also highlights Canada’s growing role as a key player in the global battery supply chain, thanks to its abundant natural resources and strategic partnerships with major manufacturers like Volkswagen.

Nth Cycle Trafigura Battery Materials Deal Signals Scale-Up in Black Mass Refining

Nth Cycle

Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal marks a significant step for recycled battery metals supply as the US critical metals refiner prepares to expand its refining footprint. Nth Cycle has signed a 10-year binding offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with battery materials valued at $1.1bn.

The agreement covers 2,000 metric tonnes of contained nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate and 1,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate. These materials will be refined from 12,000 tonnes of black mass, reinforcing the growing commercial role of recycled feedstock in the battery supply chain.

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal also gives Trafigura long-term exposure to recycled nickel and lithium units. That matters as battery manufacturers, automakers, and trading houses seek lower-carbon and more traceable alternatives to mined raw materials.

Modular Refining Model Targets Faster Battery Materials Capacity

Nth Cycle plans to establish new operations in South Carolina and the Netherlands, with production scheduled to begin in 2028. The dual-location strategy gives the company access to both North American and European battery supply chains.

The company’s modular refinery system is designed to reduce build time and capital intensity. This model could become important because conventional refining projects often face long development timelines, high upfront costs, and permitting delays.

Black mass refining is becoming a strategic bridge between battery recycling and primary raw material supply. By converting battery waste into mixed hydroxide precipitate and lithium carbonate, refiners can return critical metals into the battery value chain with less dependence on new mining projects.

Trafigura Offtake Strengthens Commercial Validation

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal provides commercial validation for Nth Cycle’s refining technology and expansion plan. A 10-year offtake agreement with a major global trading house can support financing, customer confidence, and project execution.

Nth Cycle has also received a €7.5mn grant from the Netherlands’ National Growth Fund under the Critical Raw Materials Lion initiative. This support highlights Europe’s policy focus on domestic and regional critical raw materials capacity.

The agreement reflects a broader shift in battery materials markets. Recycled nickel and lithium are moving from pilot-scale sustainability claims toward bankable supply contracts. As a result, black mass is increasingly becoming an industrial feedstock rather than a waste stream.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows that battery recycling is entering a more serious commercial phase. The key challenge for Nth Cycle will be execution, because long-term offtake value only matters if modular refining can deliver consistent volume, quality, and cost performance.

Aqua Metals to Double Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate Production in Ambitious Expansion

Aqua Metals

US Battery Recycler Targets Significant Growth in Lithium Supply Amid Rising EV Demand

Aqua Metals, a leading US battery recycler, has announced plans to more than double its production of battery-grade lithium carbonate. This strategic move reflects the company's effort to meet the increasing demand for critical materials used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems.

Aqua Metals will prioritize the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with a mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) — a solution containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese — making up the remaining portion of its output. This decision aligns with the growing importance of lithium as a key component in the global transition to electric mobility and renewable energy storage.

Expansion of Lithium Carbonate Production

Although Aqua Metals did not disclose the exact volume of the increase, the company's 2023 annual report outlined a Phase One processing capacity of 3,000 metric tonnes per year (t/yr) of lithium battery black mass, with a total processing capacity of 10,000 t/yr. This expansion will significantly contribute to the lithium supply chain, supporting the growing demand from EV manufacturers and energy storage providers.

The company is currently in discussions with feedstock suppliers and customers to ensure the success of this accelerated expansion. By securing reliable sources of materials and forming strategic partnerships, Aqua Metals aims to position itself as a key player in the growing lithium recycling market.

Positioning for the Future of Lithium Recycling

Aqua Metals’ aggressive expansion of lithium carbonate production comes at a time when the global market for lithium is under significant pressure due to the surge in demand for EVs. As part of its efforts, the company is focusing on sustainable recycling practices, utilizing innovative methods to recover lithium from used batteries.

In conclusion, Aqua Metals is positioning itself to meet the future needs of the battery industry. Its commitment to increasing production capacity and securing key partnerships demonstrates its role in advancing the circular economy for lithium and other critical metals.

Shidai Ruixiang Launches LMFP Battery Material Plant in Gansu

Baiyin Nonferrous Group

China’s Shidai Ruixiang has launched a new LMFP battery material plant with a production capacity of 20,000 tonnes per year. Located in Baiyin city, Gansu province, this marks the first phase of what will become the world’s largest LMFP facility. Once complete, the site will scale to 100,000 t/yr in lithium ferro-manganese phosphate production for next-generation EV battery applications.

The LMFP battery material plant is operated by Shidai Ruixiang, a joint venture between Gansu Elephent Energy and Baiyin Nonferrous Group, a major Chinese state-owned metals producer. The full project will be developed in three phases, although details for the next stages remain undisclosed. This launch reinforces China’s dominant position in advanced battery cathode material (CAM) supply chains.

China Expands LMFP Footprint in Global EV Market

LMFP materials offer higher energy density and longer driving range than traditional LFP cathodes, while keeping manufacturing costs low. However, they have shorter life cycles and reduced charge-discharge capacity, making them more suitable for mid-range EVs or power tools. Despite this, China’s battery sector is accelerating investment in LMFP research and production.

Other major CAM players such as Hunan Yuneng and Ningbo Ronbay are also expanding LMFP production. Ronbay announced a dual LMFP and sodium-ion CAM plant in Xiantao, Hubei, while Yuneng is constructing a dedicated LMFP facility. These efforts position LMFP as a potential mainstream solution for future battery platforms balancing cost, safety, and range.

Strategic Role of State-Backed Metals Companies in CAM Expansion

The Shidai Ruixiang LMFP battery material plant highlights growing integration between state-backed metals enterprises and energy storage innovation. Baiyin Nonferrous brings decades of expertise in copper and zinc processing—critical metals for battery infrastructure—into the cathode materials space. The partnership reflects China's strategy to leverage existing industrial assets for clean tech scalability.

As battery chemistries diversify in response to cost and performance demands, China’s control over both upstream raw materials and downstream manufacturing provides a distinct competitive edge in the global energy transition economy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LMFP battery material plant in Gansu represents a strategic shift toward diversified CAM solutions for scalable EV deployment. As Chinese producers push LMFP into the mainstream, global automakers and battery buyers will need to weigh performance trade-offs against cost and availability.

Huayou Cobalt Commissions First Overseas Battery Precursor Plant in Indonesia

Huayou Cobalt

Huayou Cobalt, a leading Chinese producer of battery metals and materials, has officially launched its first overseas production facility for high-nickel ternary battery precursors in Indonesia. This significant milestone for the company marks its strategic move to expand operations internationally in response to shifting global regulations.

Key Details of the Indonesian Plant

• Location: The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in North Maluku province.

• Capacity: Designed for a production capacity of 50,000 t/yr of high-nickel ternary battery precursors.

• Phased Rollout: Construction began in late April 2024, and the first phase is now operational. Specific capacities for each phase have not been disclosed.

This facility, officially named Huaneng, represents Huayou’s first non-FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) project in Indonesia.

Strategic Expansion in Battery Metals

Huayou has invested heavily in Indonesian projects over the years, diversifying its production capabilities outside China. The global expansion of Chinese battery firms is partly driven by regulations like the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act and the US Inflation Reduction Act. These laws restrict electric vehicles (EVs) containing battery components from FEOC-linked companies from qualifying for tax incentives, such as the $7,500 EV tax credit in the United States.

Broader Implications

Chinese battery companies are increasingly establishing production facilities in countries like the US, France, Morocco, South Korea, and Indonesia. These moves are designed to reduce geopolitical risks and ensure continued access to key EV markets, which are essential as global demand for electric vehicles accelerates.

Huayou’s new plant solidifies Indonesia’s position as a major hub for battery metals production, leveraging the country’s rich nickel reserves and strategic location in the EV supply chain.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

EU Raw Materials Platform Targets Strategic Metals Supply Security

EU, Raw Materials Platform

EU raw materials platform development has advanced as the European Commission launched a new online mechanism to connect European offtakers with suppliers of strategic raw materials. The EU raw materials platform is designed to support demand aggregation, joint purchasing and better market information across critical supply chains.

The platform covers all 17 strategic raw materials listed under the Critical Raw Materials Act. These materials are central to batteries, rare earth magnets, defence systems, semiconductors, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and industrial resilience.

EU raw materials platform activity will take place through structured rounds. The first diversification round will target operational projects where materials are already available or expected in the near term, with a focus on rare earths, defence-related materials and battery metals.

The mechanism will not provide financing or directly support negotiations. However, it can improve visibility across supply, demand, storage, investment opportunities and financing options, which are often fragmented in strategic raw material markets.

Demand Aggregation Could Strengthen Minor Metals Markets

Demand aggregation is the most important function of the platform. Many strategic materials are needed in small volumes by individual companies, but they carry high industrial and defence value.

This is especially true for minor metals such as gallium and germanium. These materials are used in semiconductors, optics, solar technologies, defence electronics and advanced communications systems, but individual buyers may not require large enough volumes to support new supply projects alone.

Pooling demand can change that equation. If several European buyers aggregate requirements, suppliers may see larger, more stable offtake volumes. This can improve confidence for upstream mining, refining, recycling and midstream processing projects.

The same logic applies to rare earths. Magnet makers, motor producers, defence manufacturers and clean-energy equipment suppliers often need secure access to neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Aggregated demand could make European purchasing more credible to non-EU suppliers.

Battery metals may also benefit. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite supply chains are increasingly shaped by long-term offtake, regional qualification and industrial policy. A shared platform can help buyers identify supply options before shortages become acute.

The platform therefore addresses a structural weakness in Europe’s critical materials strategy. Europe has strong downstream industries, but many of those industries purchase strategic metals in fragmented, company-by-company channels.

By collecting and exchanging market data, the mechanism could help convert dispersed demand into more bankable offtake signals. That is important for suppliers seeking financing, customers and predictable long-term buyers.

Platform Supports EU Diversification but Does Not Replace Financing

The EU raw materials platform is part of a broader strategy to reduce external dependencies under the Critical Raw Materials Act. Europe wants to diversify supply, strengthen domestic processing and secure access to materials needed for the energy transition and defence.

However, the mechanism is not a full project-financing tool. Negotiations will take place outside the system, and the platform will not guarantee deals or provide direct financial backing.

This limits what the mechanism can achieve by itself. Strategic raw material projects still need permitting, capital, technology, customer qualification, logistics and long-term price visibility.

But the platform can still play a useful role. It can bring buyers and suppliers into the same market framework, improve demand transparency and identify where joint purchasing could support supply diversification.

The first diversification round will be important because it focuses on projects close to availability. This avoids the problem of relying only on long-dated mining projects that may take years to enter production.

The inclusion of storage options is also relevant. Strategic materials supply security is not only about production. It also depends on inventories, emergency access, buffer stocks and coordinated procurement during disruption.

The broader platform also includes gas and hydrogen mechanisms. This shows that the EU is applying a similar strategic procurement model across energy and raw materials, where fragmented buying can weaken market leverage.

For Europe’s industrial base, the key issue is execution. The platform must move beyond data sharing and create real commercial connections between offtakers and suppliers. Otherwise, it risks becoming another policy tool without enough market impact.

For suppliers, the opportunity is clearer. A credible pool of European demand could make projects more attractive, especially in rare earths, gallium, germanium and battery materials where supply diversification is politically urgent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU raw materials platform is not a financing solution, but it could become an important demand-signalling tool. Its success will depend on whether Europe can turn fragmented buyer interest into real offtake volumes that support new strategic metals supply.

Rivian Second-Life Battery Storage Project Links EV Packs to Grid Reliability

Rivian, Redwood

Rivian second-life battery storage is moving into commercial use after the US electric-vehicle maker agreed to deploy repurposed battery packs through Redwood Materials at its Normal manufacturing plant in Illinois. The project will use more than 100 used Rivian battery packs to provide 10 MWh of dispatchable battery energy storage.

The Rivian second-life battery storage project gives retired EV packs a second use before recycling. Redwood Materials will integrate the packs into a Redwood Energy system for on-site use at Rivian’s manufacturing facility.

Rivian second-life battery storage also reflects a wider shift in the battery value chain. Automakers and recyclers are looking for ways to extract more value from battery packs before recovering lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminium and other materials.

Redwood Turns Used EV Packs Into Stationary Storage

Redwood will receive EV battery packs from Rivian and convert them into a battery energy storage system for the Normal plant. The system will help reduce energy costs and support local grid reliability.

Second-life batteries are useful because EV packs can still retain meaningful capacity after vehicle use. They may no longer meet automotive performance requirements, but they can still serve stationary storage applications.

This creates a bridge between mobility and grid infrastructure. A battery pack can first support vehicle electrification, then provide stationary power, and later enter recycling for critical material recovery.

Redwood receives more than 20 GWh/yr of batteries, giving it a large feedstock base for both reuse and recycling. The company said it can deploy BESS projects in as little as six months, which matters as power demand rises quickly.

Data Center Power Demand Raises Storage Value

Rivian has attracted investors such as Google, which are seeking faster access to power solutions for artificial intelligence data center growth. This connection shows why second-life batteries are becoming more strategically relevant.

AI data centers need reliable, flexible and rapidly deployable power. Battery energy storage systems can help manage peak demand, improve resilience and reduce pressure on grids facing new large-load connections.

Repurposed EV batteries could become a lower-cost option where speed matters more than maximum energy density. They may also reduce waste and delay the need for immediate material recycling.

For the metals supply chain, this creates a more circular model. Battery materials stay in productive use longer, while recyclers build stronger long-term access to end-of-life packs and future recovered metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rivian and Redwood are showing how EV batteries can become grid assets before they become recycling feedstock. The strategic value lies in extending battery life, lowering storage costs and securing future material recovery in one integrated loop.

Europe EV Growth Rises as Incentives Mask Fragile Demand Signals

Europe EV

Europe EV growth accelerated last month as battery electric vehicle sales rose by 41%, supported by tax incentives, fleet buying and carmakers’ efforts to meet emissions targets. The increase looks strong on paper, but the drivers of demand remain uneven across markets.

Battery electric vehicle sales outpaced plug-in hybrid sales, which rose by 32% across the EU, EFTA and UK. Regular hybrid vehicle sales increased by 15%, while petrol and diesel sales continued to decline across major European markets.

Europe EV growth was strongest in large markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Spain again stood out for plug-in hybrid growth, showing that national policy, consumer economics and model availability continue to shape adoption differently.

The headline growth is important for battery metals and automotive supply chains. Higher BEV sales support long-term demand for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets.

Incentives and Fleet Orders Drive the Near-Term Recovery

Tax policy remains one of the main engines behind Europe EV growth. Several member states entered the year with revised company car rules, income-linked subsidies or accelerated depreciation schemes for electric vehicles.

These measures have favoured fleet buyers more than private consumers. Corporate fleets can respond faster to tax incentives, depreciation benefits and emissions rules because they buy vehicles in larger volumes and plan replacements more systematically.

France has tightened the link between EV support and income. Germany’s recovery has been supported by targeted incentives reintroduced in January after earlier policy volatility disrupted demand.

This matters because fleet-led growth can be less stable than broad consumer adoption. Fleet orders can lift sales quickly, but private demand is still sensitive to price, charging access, financing costs and residual value concerns.

Carmakers are also working to meet CO₂ limits. This creates another demand driver that is not purely consumer-led. Automakers may use pricing, leasing and fleet channels to push EV registrations when regulatory targets tighten.

For metals markets, the distinction matters. Stable private adoption creates more predictable battery material demand. Incentive-driven fleet demand can be more volatile if policy changes or budget support weakens.

Oil Shock Adds Uncertainty to EV Demand Outlook

Higher oil prices after the US-Iran war have revived the question of whether fuel costs are pushing consumers toward electric vehicles. However, the evidence is not yet clear.

EV demand was already rising in key markets before the oil shock. Early-year growth appears to reflect incentives, fleet orders and emissions compliance more than a direct consumer shift caused by higher fuel costs.

There is also a timing lag. Vehicle orders usually appear in sales data several weeks later, and delivery times vary by model and country. Any clear oil-price effect may not appear until June or July.

This caution is important because monthly EV data can be distorted by local registration patterns. The UK, for example, often sees a March registration spike because of its plate change system.

The broader strategic message remains clear. If Europe wants to reduce exposure to oil shocks, it needs consistent carbon rules, pollution-based taxation, charging infrastructure and long-term industrial policy.

Stop-start subsidies can create temporary sales jumps, but they can also damage market confidence. Stable rules are more useful for automakers, battery producers, charging companies and metals suppliers.

Europe EV growth therefore remains real but fragile. The region is moving away from petrol and diesel, yet the pace still depends heavily on policy design and fleet purchasing behaviour.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe EV growth is not yet a clean demand signal for battery metals because incentives and fleet buying are doing much of the work. The stronger long-term signal will come when private buyers adopt EVs without policy volatility or fuel-price panic.

Firebird Metals Builds First LMFP Battery in China Development Push

Firebird Metals

Australian Firm Partners with Chinese University to Test Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate Technology

Firebird Metals, an Australian battery materials company, has successfully built a lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) battery in China, marking a significant step in its ongoing development program.

The company is conducting these tests in partnership with Central South University in Hunan province, making it one of the first Australian firms to assemble an LMFP battery abroad.

Firebird has begun testing 100 batches of battery metal formulations, with the goal of converting them into fully functional LMFP batteries. As of March 4, the firm has tested five batches, and several of them have already yielded working battery cells, according to its investor update.

Potential for LMFP Capacity Expansion at China Hub

Depending on the results of its full test campaign, Firebird may expand its Chinese battery hub to reach 1 tonne/day of LMFP capacity. The company aims to leverage China’s supply chain efficiency and academic R&D to accelerate commercial battery-grade material production.

Firebird is not alone in the LMFP race. Livium, a battery recycler, produced LMFP battery cells in 2020 at a Brisbane pilot plant. In China, Ningbo Rombay, a leading domestic manufacturer, operates at a scale of 10,000 tonnes per year, positioning itself as a dominant LMFP supplier.

Meanwhile, manganese sulphate prices, a key input for LMFP, have shown notable volatility. According to SUPERMETALPRICE, battery-grade manganese sulphate (≥32% Mn) ex-works pricing climbed from $660/t in February 2024 to $861/t in June, before retreating to $820/t by late February 2025. Prices remain well below the March 2022 peak of $1,671/t, reflecting ongoing market correction and oversupply dynamics.

Firebird’s pilot results could play a critical role in defining Australia’s foothold in low-cost, thermally stable LMFP battery chemistry, widely viewed as a viable alternative to LFP and NCM chemistries in energy storage and e-mobility applications.

Japan Eyes Investments in Argentinian Lithium as Demand for Battery Metals Grows

Argentina lithium

Salta Province Attracts Japanese Interest Through RIGI and Strategic Bilateral Proposals

Japan eyes investments in Argentinian lithium to secure long-term access to key battery metals amid global electrification efforts. Japanese government officials recently met with authorities from Argentina’s Salta province to assess the region’s lithium reserves and explore opportunities for partnership. The talks focused on Salta’s lithium potential and included inquiries into major mining projects across multiple commodities—signaling broader strategic interest in Argentina’s resource sector.

While lithium was the main focus, Japanese officials also discussed First Quantum’s Taca Taca copper project, the Lindero gold mine operated by the UK’s Mansfield, and silver exploration by Abrasilver and Anglogold. Japan’s delegation reportedly requested support for a bilateral investment grant, which, alongside Argentina’s Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), could fast-track Japanese capital into the province’s mining sector.

Argentina’s Investment Incentives Align with Japan’s Supply Chain Strategy

The RIGI framework offers approved projects reduced tax burdens, lower royalties, simplified customs procedures, and accounting flexibility. These benefits are designed to attract large-scale foreign investment into Argentina’s high-potential mining regions. As Japan eyes investments in Argentinian lithium, RIGI could serve as a key enabler for Japanese companies seeking stable, long-term access to battery-grade lithium and related critical minerals.

The visit underscores Japan’s strategy to diversify supply chains away from China, especially for electric vehicle and energy storage technologies. By tapping into Argentina’s lithium triangle, Japan can enhance its resource security while supporting Latin America’s role in the global clean energy transition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s proactive engagement in Argentina’s Salta province reflects a targeted push to secure non-Chinese lithium supply. As battery metal demand accelerates, bilateral frameworks like RIGI and diplomatic investment channels will shape the next wave of global critical minerals partnerships.

Patriot Battery Becomes Major Shareholder in Loyal Lithium Following Hidden Lake Deal

Patriot Battery Metals

Strategic Shift Consolidates Canadian Lithium Assets Amid Volkswagen Offtake Agreement

Loyal Lithium has acquired full ownership of the Hidden Lake Lithium Project by absorbing its joint venture partner, Patriot Battery Metals, as a key shareholder. The project, previously split 60/40 between Loyal Lithium and Patriot, is now fully controlled by Loyal following a share-based transaction.

The Hidden Lake Project is located in the Yellowknife Lithium Belt in Canada's Northwest Territories, a region rich in spodumene-bearing lithium dykes. By consolidating ownership, Loyal Lithium strengthens its strategic position in North America's growing lithium supply chain.

Patriot's New Role and the Volkswagen Deal

In exchange for its 40% stake, Patriot Battery Metals received shares in Loyal Lithium, becoming a significant equity holder. This move aligns with Patriot's broader growth strategy, including its 10-year offtake agreement signed in December 2024 with Volkswagen. The deal secures the supply of 100,000 metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, underscoring the increasing demand for battery-grade lithium.

This partnership enhances Patriot’s downstream reach while giving Loyal Lithium operational control over a key asset.

Loyal Expands Lithium Footprint Across North America

Beyond Hidden Lake, Loyal Lithium is advancing three additional lithium projects in Canada and the United States. Notably, its Brisk Project in Quebec's James Bay Lithium District is strategically located along the same geological trend as Patriot’s Shaakichiuwaanaan Project. This regional proximity may present further collaborative opportunities between the two companies.

As demand for lithium continues to surge, Loyal and Patriot’s repositioning reflects a growing trend of consolidation and strategic realignment within the lithium exploration sector.