Luanshya Copper Mine Restart Supports Zambia’s Copper Growth Ambition

Luanshya Copper Mine

Luanshya copper mine restart plans are moving forward in Zambia, with the upper mine expected to resume production in August after two decades of care and maintenance. The mine is mainly controlled by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation.

The Luanshya copper mine restart follows a dewatering process after severe flooding damaged infrastructure at the site. Zambia’s mines ministry said the upper mine is set to restart first, while the lower mine is expected to begin production in 2029.

The Luanshya copper mine restart could become a meaningful addition to Zambia’s long-term copper supply base. Once fully operational by 2030, the mine is expected to produce around 100,000 t/yr of copper.

The project matters because Zambia is trying to raise national copper output sharply. The country produced more than 890,000t of copper in 2025, up 8% from a year earlier, and is targeting 1mn t this year.

Restart Adds Near-Term Momentum to Zambia’s Copper Pipeline

Luanshya’s return is important because it brings an idled asset back into Zambia’s operating copper base. Restarting an existing mine can be faster than building a new greenfield project, although dewatering, infrastructure repair and operational stabilisation still create execution risk.

The upper mine restart in August gives Zambia a near-term production milestone. The lower mine start-up in 2029 would then support a second phase of output growth.

If the mine reaches full output of 100,000 t/yr by 2030, it would make a material contribution to Zambia’s production targets. It would also strengthen the country’s position as one of Africa’s key copper suppliers.

Zambia wants to lift copper output to 3mn t by 2032. That target will require restarts, expansions, new projects, processing investment and more reliable infrastructure across the mining sector.

CNMC Role Highlights China’s African Copper Position

CNMC’s control of Luanshya reinforces China’s continuing role in African copper supply. Chinese companies have become major investors in copper assets across Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This has strategic importance for global copper flows. As copper demand rises from grids, electrification, data centres and industrial policy, ownership and offtake structures in Africa are becoming more politically and commercially significant.

Luanshya’s restart also comes as western governments seek greater access to African copper supply. Zambia is therefore becoming a more important battleground for investment, financing, logistics and long-term offtake.

For the copper market, the project adds supply visibility but not immediate full-scale relief. The larger impact depends on whether the mine can ramp steadily, manage water and infrastructure risks, and reach its 2030 production target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luanshya’s restart shows why brownfield copper assets are regaining strategic value. In a market short of fast supply growth, Zambia’s ability to revive idled mines could matter as much as discovering new deposits.

Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV as Arc Minerals regains control

Anglo American

Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV with Arc Minerals, underscoring how majors are retreating from early-stage African exploration risk. The joint venture’s termination ends Anglo’s first fresh Zambia investment in nearly two decades, despite a strong copper price backdrop and growing electrification demand. As a result, Arc Minerals now regains full control of the Zambian copper and cobalt licences, but faces a tougher path to funding and project de-risking.

Why Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV signals shifting exploration priorities

Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV just three years after launching the partnership with Arc’s Unico Minerals subsidiary. The JV never progressed to drilling, reflecting how majors increasingly prioritise brownfield expansions and near-term developments over greenfield frontier plays. Meanwhile, around $800,000 will remain in Handa Resources, the JV vehicle, to support ongoing work as Arc reassesses its plans.

The move highlights structural barriers in advancing African exploration, including complex permitting, high logistics costs and investors’ limited risk appetite. This caution persists even as London Metal Exchange copper prices hover near $10,600/t, supported by supply disruptions and grid-driven demand. Therefore, the Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV decision shows that price strength alone cannot offset perceived execution and jurisdiction risks.

Arc Minerals strategy after Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV

Arc Minerals now holds 100pc of the exploration licences and must redefine its strategy without a global major’s backing. The company has signalled it will explore new strategic options, including bringing in another partner to share risk and capital. However, the market reaction was immediate, with Arc’s share price plunging by nearly 50pc on the London Stock Exchange.

Arc insists it remains adequately funded, combining existing cash with remaining JV funds, and does not need a fresh equity raise now. Even so, any future drilling, resource definition and potential development will require deeper pockets or a new strategic investor. For juniors across Africa, this episode underscores how quickly corporate priorities can shift, even in a copper market driven by electrification narratives.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The fact that Anglo American exits Zambia copper JV at a time of tight copper supply underlines how capital discipline now dominates boardrooms. African copper exploration remains strategically attractive, but only where permitting clarity, infrastructure and political stability visibly de-risk the story. Expect stronger competition among juniors to secure partnerships with majors that increasingly cherry-pick only the lowest-risk copper growth options.

Jubilee Copper Output Growth Accelerates as Roan Ramp-Up Strengthens Zambia Operations

Jubilee

Jubilee copper output growth strengthened in the first half of its 2026 financial year as Roan delivered a sharp production increase. Total saleable copper units reached 1,543t in the six months to 31 December, up 8.7pc from a year earlier. Roan produced 1,246t during the period, rising 173pc year on year. As a result, Jubilee copper output growth is becoming a more important Zambia copper production story.

This matters because Roan is now the main driver behind Jubilee copper output growth. Higher throughput and better operating stability pushed feed rates to about 30,000 t/month. That performance held despite seasonal disruption from heavy rains. Therefore, Roan copper ramp-up is giving Jubilee a stronger operational base than before.

The production mix also shows broader processing flexibility. Roan delivered copper in oxide concentrate refined at Sable, sulphide concentrate sold directly, and oxide fines stockpiled for future refining. That means the company is not relying on one single recovery route. Consequently, Jubilee copper output growth is being supported by both current output and future processing potential.

Roan Copper Ramp-Up Supports Higher 2026 Production Ambitions

Roan copper ramp-up is central to Jubilee’s plan to more than double output in 2026. The company maintained production guidance of 4,500-5,100t for the year, compared with 2,211t in 2025. That target depends on continued operating gains and stronger mining support. As a result, Zambia copper production from Jubilee could rise meaningfully if Roan stays on track.

A key next step is the upgraded concentrate dewatering facility at Roan. The company expects it to be commissioned in March. Once that unit is online, Jubilee should be able to process stockpiled oxide fines into additional cathode output. Therefore, Roan copper ramp-up still has another layer of upside ahead.

Zambia Copper Production Outlook Gains Support From Expanding Feedstock

Zambia copper production at Jubilee also gains support from a growing feed pipeline. The group said it has accumulated significant copper-bearing stockpiles, including more than 2.3mn t at Molefe. That inventory can supply future refining as processing capacity expands. Meanwhile, Molefe and the wider asset base give Jubilee more optionality than a single-plant growth story.

The company is also advancing its Large Waste Project in Zambia, which contains an estimated 240mn t of material. Jubilee is evaluating possible joint-venture partners to support future recovery and processing. That suggests management is thinking beyond short-term output gains. Consequently, Jubilee copper output growth now looks tied to a wider platform build rather than only a temporary operational improvement.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s update matters because it shows how quickly secondary and waste-based copper projects can gain momentum when throughput and plant stability improve. The bigger signal is not just the first-half gain. It is that Roan, Molefe, and the Large Waste Project together could give Jubilee a more scalable Zambia copper growth story than the market previously assumed.

Mopani Copper Mine Suspension Raises Safety and Supply Concerns in Zambia

Mopani

The Mopani copper mine suspension has put safety and supply back at the center of Zambia’s copper sector. Mopani Copper Mines froze all mining operations run by Reliant Mining in Kitwe and Mufulira. The decision followed two worker deaths in separate incidents over the past three weeks. As a result, the Mopani copper mine suspension now carries both operational and market significance.

This matters because Mopani is not a minor producer. It is Zambia’s largest mine and copper exporter, contributing more than 20pc of national output. The mine currently produces about 220,000 t/yr of copper cathode. Therefore, the Mopani copper mine suspension could affect both local operations and broader Zambia copper supply expectations.

Copper Mine Safety Is Driving the Immediate Shutdown

Copper mine safety is the direct reason for the shutdown. One worker died during testing of a blasting cable. Another died after a machine fell on them during operations. These were separate incidents, but together they forced management to halt activity.

The suspension will remain in place until investigations are completed. Management also wants comprehensive safety guidelines submitted before operations restart. That shows the company is treating the issue as a system failure, not a single isolated event. Consequently, copper mine safety has become the gatekeeper for any restart timeline.

Mopani has already begun a series of mass safety meetings. These sessions are meant to reinforce critical safety rules and discourage illegal or high-risk underground behavior. They also aim to strengthen supervision and personal accountability. Meanwhile, the company is trying to restore operating discipline before resuming production.

Zambia Copper Supply Now Faces a Near-Term Operational Risk

Zambia copper supply may now face a temporary disruption depending on how long the shutdown lasts. Mopani is a major contributor to the country’s copper exports and production profile. Even a short halt at a mine of this scale can affect output expectations. Therefore, the suspension matters beyond one operator and one site.

The timing is also important for Mopani’s own growth plan. The mine produces about 220,000 t/yr of copper cathode today, with output projected to reach 260,000t by the end of 2026. That makes the current shutdown more significant than a routine safety stoppage. As a result, the restart timeline may influence confidence in the mine’s expansion trajectory.

For the wider Copperbelt, this is also a reminder that production growth still depends on safe execution underground. Copper demand may remain strong, but mine performance can change quickly when safety breaks down. Consequently, Zambia copper supply remains vulnerable not only to grades and investment, but also to operational discipline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shutdown shows that safety remains one of the most important variables in copper supply. Large mines do not lose relevance when operations stop. They become more important because every delay carries wider market consequences. If Mopani resolves the safety gap quickly, the output impact may stay limited, but the lesson for the Copperbelt is already clear.

KoBold Mingomba Copper Project Advances as Zambia Targets Major Supply Growth

KoBold Metals

KoBold Mingomba copper project has broken ground in Zambia, moving one of Africa’s largest planned copper mines closer to development. The project is expected to cost more than $2.3bn and produce more than 300,000 t/yr of copper once fully ramped up.

KoBold Mingomba copper project is strategically important because Zambia wants to lift national copper production to about 3mn t/yr by the early 2030s. A project of this scale could become one of the country’s most important new supply sources.

KoBold Mingomba copper project also highlights the growing role of AI-led exploration in critical minerals. KoBold has used proprietary artificial intelligence and machine-learning tools to define a high-grade copper resource deep underground.

The company acquired Mingomba in December 2022. It is now beginning early construction work before completing all engineering studies, with a final cost estimate expected by early next year.

Zambia Copper Investment Gains Momentum

Mingomba could become one of Zambia’s largest copper investments. At more than 300,000 t/yr of planned output, it would rank with some of the largest single copper assets globally.

The project supports Zambia’s wider copper growth strategy. The country is trying to attract large-scale mining investment after years of operational, tax and policy uncertainty.

Other producers are also expanding in Zambia. Barrick and First Quantum are pursuing projects that could help rebuild national output growth.

This matters because copper demand is rising from grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and AI data centres. But new mine supply remains difficult to deliver.

Permitting delays, declining grades and higher capital costs continue to slow global copper development. This gives high-grade, large-scale African projects greater strategic value.

Zambia has a natural advantage because it already has mining infrastructure, workforce experience and established copper export channels. However, execution still depends on policy stability, power supply, transport and downstream processing capacity.

AI Exploration Adds New Dimension to Copper Supply

KoBold’s approach makes Mingomba more than a conventional copper project. The company has built its strategy around using AI and machine learning to analyse geological data and accelerate discovery.

Technology-led exploration is becoming more important as the mining industry searches for deeper, harder-to-find deposits. Many easy copper discoveries have already been developed.

Mingomba’s deep underground resource shows why new exploration methods matter. Future copper supply will increasingly depend on better data, faster targeting and more efficient drilling.

KoBold is backed by major technology and energy-transition investors, including Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman. That investor base reflects copper’s growing role in electrification and strategic materials policy.

The company is still assessing smelting and refining options for Mingomba’s output. This will be important because mine production alone does not guarantee secure copper supply.

Processing, logistics and offtake structures will determine how Mingomba’s copper enters global markets. Zambia’s ability to capture more value domestically may also shape the project’s long-term impact.

KoBold is also expanding its African critical minerals strategy. It has outlined plans for lithium exploration in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 2027 and is reviewing lithium and nickel opportunities in Namibia. It has also begun early-stage copper exploration in Botswana.

The broader signal is clear. Africa is becoming central to the next phase of copper and critical minerals supply, while technology-led exploration is changing how new deposits are found and financed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mingomba is important because it combines scale, grade and timing in a copper market short of credible new supply. If KoBold can convert AI-led discovery into mine execution, Zambia could gain one of the most strategically important copper assets of the next decade.

Zambia and US Launch Copper Mine Joint Venture

Zambia Copper Mine

The Zambia copper mine joint venture between US-based Metalex and Zambia’s Terra Metals marks a significant step in bilateral mining cooperation. The two companies launched Lunda Resources, a partnership aimed at developing the Mwinilunga Copper Mine, which is set to become a key contributor to global copper and cobalt supply chains.

Zambia Copper Mine Joint Venture Targets 100,000t Output

The new Zambia copper mine joint venture will process up to 2mn tonnes of ore annually, producing 100,000 tonnes of copper concentrates, copper cement, and cobalt precipitate. Lunda Resources has already invested ZMW 270mn ($1.2bn) in early-stage development. The full project build-out is expected to reach ZMW 2.7bn, including advanced ore processing systems.

Strengthening Zambia-US Mining Cooperation

This partnership reflects a strategic alignment between Zambia and the US at a time when global copper and cobalt demand is surging. Copper remains central to the global energy transition, while cobalt is vital for battery manufacturing. The collaboration between Metalex and Terra Metals sets a new benchmark for cross-border mining partnerships, combining Zambia’s resource wealth with US investment and technology.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Zambia copper mine joint venture highlights how resource-rich African nations are leveraging foreign partnerships to expand mining capacity. By aligning with US firms, Zambia strengthens its position in global supply chains while diversifying investment sources beyond China. This project underscores copper’s critical role in electrification and positions Zambia as a key growth hub in Africa’s mining sector.

Jubilee Metals Zambia Copper Push Gets Early Funding for Molefe Asset

Jubilee Metals

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper strategy has gained modest early-stage funding after the London-listed company secured a $1.5mn convertible loan for its Molefe copper asset. The loan will support drilling and licence work as Jubilee builds its Zambian copper platform.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper growth now centres on feeding near-surface material from Molefe into the existing Sable refinery. This lowers upfront capital needs compared with a standalone copper development project.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper ambitions remain dependent on additional external funding. The current loan provides short-term support, while the backer is also considering a larger staged investment of $10mn.

The financing comes as Jubilee shifts away from its South African chrome and platinum group metals assets. The company is redirecting capital toward copper, where it sees stronger growth potential.

Molefe Offers Lower-Cost Route Into Copper Processing

Molefe is strategically important because it can supply material to Jubilee’s existing Sable refinery. That gives the project a practical processing route without requiring a full new refining complex.

The near-surface nature of the operation also helps reduce early development costs. Jubilee can focus initial spending on drilling, licensing and stockpile development rather than heavy greenfield infrastructure.

This model fits smaller copper developers trying to scale under tight capital conditions. Instead of building large mines first, companies can use existing processing assets and incremental feedstock growth.

Jubilee plans to build stockpiles at Molefe to support future refining. That will be important for ensuring stable feed to Sable and improving operating continuity.

However, the $1.5mn loan is limited in scale. It supports early work, but larger funding will be needed if Jubilee wants to expand mining and processing capacity meaningfully.

Zambia Becomes Core to Jubilee’s Growth Strategy

Jubilee has increasingly focused on Zambia as it pivots toward copper. The country remains one of Africa’s most important copper jurisdictions and continues to attract investment tied to electrification and energy transition demand.

The company’s copper output has improved as the Roan concentrator stabilised and Molefe expanded its role as feedstock for Sable. This gives Jubilee a clearer operating base than during earlier ramp-up challenges.

The planned sale of South African chrome and PGM assets would sharpen that focus further. It would free capital and management attention for copper growth in Zambia.

The strategy reflects wider market logic. Copper demand remains supported by power grids, renewable energy, data centres, electric vehicles and industrial electrification.

For Jubilee, the challenge is execution. It must convert a low-cost processing model into steady copper output, secure enough feedstock and attract the capital required for expansion.

The potential $10mn staged investment could become more important than the initial loan. It would provide a stronger bridge between early development and larger operating scale.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s Molefe funding is small, but the strategy is practical. In a capital-constrained copper market, assets that can feed existing refineries may advance faster than larger standalone projects.

First Quantum Copper Output Falls But Cobre Panama Stockpile Lifts 2026 Guidance

First Quantum

First Quantum copper output declined in the first quarter as lower production from the company’s Zambian mines offset a sharp increase in nickel output. The Canadian miner produced 96,469t of copper in January-March, down 3.2% from a year earlier.

First Quantum copper output was weaker at both Kansanshi and Sentinel, the company’s two main operating copper assets in Zambia. Copper sales also fell by 11.7% to 90,049t because of shipment timing and inventory replenishment at Kansanshi after stronger sales in the previous quarter.

First Quantum copper output guidance for 2026 was raised despite the weaker first-quarter result. The company increased its full-year copper production outlook to 405,000-475,000t after Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at the closed Cobre Panama mine.

The approval changes the near-term production picture, but it does not reopen Cobre Panama. The mine remains closed after protests and a court ruling in 2023 found its operating contract unconstitutional.

Zambian Mines Weaken as Grades and Recoveries Pressure Output

Kansanshi produced 45,345t of copper in the first quarter, down 2.6% from a year earlier. The decline reflects the challenge of maintaining output from mature large-scale copper operations.

Sentinel produced 45,252t of copper, down 2.4% on the year. Lower feed grades and weaker recoveries reduced output at the mine.

These results show how copper supply can weaken even when operating assets remain active. Mine grades, recovery rates, mill performance and shipment timing all influence quarterly supply.

The weaker sales figure also matters. First Quantum sold 90,049t of copper in the quarter, below production, because of shipment timing and the need to rebuild Kansanshi inventories.

For copper markets, Zambia remains important because it is one of Africa’s key producing regions. Stable output from Kansanshi and Sentinel supports global supply at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on secure copper sources outside more politically sensitive routes.

First Quantum’s nickel production moved in the opposite direction. Output rose by 165.4% on the year to 12,340t, supported by higher grades and recoveries.

The nickel increase improves the company’s diversified metals profile. But copper remains the strategic core of First Quantum’s business and the main driver of market attention.

Cobre Panama Stockpile Approval Adds Near-Term Copper Supply

First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production guidance after Panama approved the removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. The site will process around 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing about 70,000t of recoverable copper.

This approval gives First Quantum a short-term supply and cash-flow opportunity from material already mined before the shutdown. It does not involve new mining, drilling or blasting.

Cobre Panama was one of the largest copper mines in the Americas before its closure. It produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply.

The mine’s shutdown removed a major source of copper supply and had a severe impact on First Quantum’s revenue base. The stockpile processing approval partly eases that impact, but only for material already on site.

The long-term future of Cobre Panama remains unresolved. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement with Panama.

This distinction is important for copper markets. Stockpile processing can add near-term units, but it does not restore the full mine or solve the broader supply loss from the 2023 closure.

First Quantum kept its 2026 nickel production guidance unchanged at 30,000-40,000t. That suggests the main guidance change is tied directly to Cobre Panama’s approved stockpile treatment.

For investors and copper buyers, the company’s outlook now depends on two tracks. Zambia must stabilise operating performance, while Panama determines how much value can be recovered from Cobre Panama without reopening the mine.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s guidance increase is a stockpile story, not a full Cobre Panama recovery story. The approval adds useful copper units, but the real strategic question remains whether Panama and First Quantum can ever rebuild a legal framework for long-term mining.

Sinomine Lithium and Copper Expansion Targets Zimbabwe and Zambia Growth

Sinomine Resources

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion is accelerating as the Chinese miner prepares to raise up to 5.2bn yuan to fund new battery metals, copper and specialty metals projects. The targeted share placement will support projects in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Jiangxi province.

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion reflects the company’s move from a lithium-focused growth story into a broader multi-metal platform. The company entered lithium through the Bikita mine in Zimbabwe in 2021 and added copper exposure through its 65% stake in Zambia’s Kitumba project in 2024.

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion also shows how Chinese mining companies are securing upstream resources while building processing capacity closer to mine sites. That strategy is becoming more important as resource-rich countries push for more domestic value addition.

The fundraising plan will support a 100,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant in Zimbabwe, the Kitumba copper project in Zambia, and a 2,000 t/yr caesium and rubidium products project in Jiangxi.

Kitumba Copper Project Strengthens Sinomine’s Diversification

The Kitumba copper project is central to Sinomine’s move into copper. Development is advancing through equipment procurement, civil works and installation, with trial concentrator production targeted by the third quarter of 2026.

Full concentrator commissioning is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Smelter trial production is also targeted for the fourth quarter, with full operations expected from the first quarter of 2027.

Kitumba’s mining and processing design capacity remains 3.5mn t/yr of ore. However, smelting design capacity has been revised down to 35,000 t/yr of copper cathode from the previous 60,000 t/yr.

At full capacity, the project is expected to average 33,000 t/yr of copper cathode and 55,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. This gives Sinomine exposure to both refined copper and concentrate flows.

The project matters because copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electric vehicles, data centres, renewable energy and industrial electrification. Chinese miners are therefore looking beyond lithium to secure copper assets that can support long-term energy transition demand.

Zambia also gives Sinomine a strategic position in the African copper belt. The region remains one of the most important sources of copper growth, but project execution will depend on infrastructure, power, permitting and smelting economics.

Zimbabwe Lithium Sulphate Plan Moves Processing Downstream

Sinomine’s Bikita lithium operations in Zimbabwe have already ramped up after commissioning 2mn t/yr and 1.2mn t/yr expansion projects in July 2023. The projects reached designed capacity and product specifications by November 2023.

Lithium concentrate shipments to China have continued, but Zimbabwe’s policy environment is pushing Chinese lithium firms to process more material locally. The country imposed a ban on concentrate exports in February, accelerating interest in lithium sulphate production.

Sinomine’s planned 100,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant fits that shift. Details on construction timing and commissioning have not yet been disclosed, but the strategic direction is clear.

Lithium sulphate gives producers a way to move further downstream before exporting material to China or other battery chemical markets. It also helps satisfy local value-addition requirements while preserving access to Zimbabwe’s lithium resource base.

Other Chinese battery materials companies are moving in the same direction. Huayou Cobalt shipped its first lithium sulphate cargo from Zimbabwe to China on 25 April, showing that the processing route is already becoming commercially active.

Sinomine’s specialty metals platform adds another layer. The company is a leading producer of caesium and rubidium salts, with integrated mining, processing and advanced materials capabilities.

The planned 2,000 t/yr caesium and rubidium products project in Jiangxi supports higher-value specialty materials growth. These metals serve specialised industrial, electronic and advanced technology applications.

Sinomine’s latest fundraising plan therefore points to a more integrated strategy. The company is securing lithium, adding copper, and expanding specialty metals processing while responding to changing export rules and downstream demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinomine’s strategy shows how Chinese miners are adapting to a world where resource ownership alone is no longer enough. The next advantage will come from controlling mine supply, local processing and downstream product routes across lithium, copper and specialty metals.

Barrick Copper Output Rises as Lumwana Expansion Supports Growth Outlook

Barrick Mining

Barrick copper output rose in 2025, showing stronger operational momentum in its base metals portfolio. The company produced 220,000 metric tonnes of copper during the year. That was 13pc higher than 2024 and in line with guidance. As a result, Barrick copper output is becoming a more important part of the company’s broader growth story.

The annual gain matters because copper remains central to future mining investment and electrification demand. Barrick also sold 67,000t of copper in the fourth quarter, up 24.1pc from a year earlier. However, fourth-quarter production slipped by 3.1pc to 62,000t. Therefore, Barrick copper output improved on a full-year basis even as quarterly volumes softened.

Barrick Copper Output Holds Firm While 2026 Guidance Stays Steady

Barrick copper output now enters 2026 with a stable production outlook. The company maintained guidance at 190,000–220,000t for the year. That range suggests management expects operational consistency rather than a major near-term production jump. Consequently, Barrick copper output appears set for a controlled rather than aggressive growth phase.

The cost outlook is also important. Barrick forecast all-in sustaining costs at $3.45–$3.75/lb for 2026. At the same time, it expects copper prices at $3.05–$3.35/lb. That spread suggests margin discipline will matter as much as output growth. Therefore, Barrick copper output alone will not define performance unless costs remain tightly managed.

This guidance also reflects a more cautious industry backdrop. Copper miners continue to balance growth ambitions with capital intensity and operating discipline. Barrick seems to be taking that approach by holding guidance steady while advancing longer-term expansion. Meanwhile, investors will likely focus on whether volumes stay near the top end of the range.

Lumwana Expansion Strengthens Barrick’s Long-Term Copper Position

Lumwana expansion is the clearest strategic driver behind Barrick’s copper outlook. The company said the Zambia project is running ahead of schedule. Deliveries of mining equipment expected in 2026 are already under way. As a result, Lumwana expansion is becoming one of the most important future levers for Barrick’s copper business.

This matters because Zambia copper production remains strategically attractive in the global supply chain. Large-scale expansions in established copper districts can carry more value than early-stage greenfield concepts. Barrick is therefore building future production from an existing operating platform. Consequently, Lumwana expansion gives the company a stronger path to long-term copper relevance.

The broader message is encouraging for Barrick’s base metals strategy. The company has already lifted annual copper production and kept 2026 guidance intact. At the same time, it is advancing one of its key growth assets ahead of schedule. Therefore, Barrick copper output may be entering a more durable growth cycle rather than delivering a one-year improvement.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Barrick’s update is important because it combines steady current output with visible future expansion. The company is not chasing reckless growth. It is building copper exposure with more measured execution. If Lumwana stays ahead of schedule, Barrick could strengthen its position in a market that still needs reliable new copper supply.

Ivanhoe Mines Secures Copper Exploration Licences in Zambia

Ivanhoe Mines

Zambia Awards Ivanhoe Vast Copper Exploration Area

The Zambian government granted Ivanhoe Mines 7,757km² of new copper exploration licences in its northwestern province. This strategic allocation expands Ivanhoe’s footprint in the Central African Copperbelt, a region rich in copper resources. The licences align with Zambia's goal to become a top global copper producer by 2031.

Partnership Strengthens Following Initial September Agreement

Ivanhoe and Zambia’s Ministry of Mines signed an initial agreement in September to pursue copper development. The formal issuance of licences marks a significant step forward in their collaboration. This partnership reflects Zambia’s commitment to attracting foreign investment in mining and exploration.

Copper Production Key to Zambia’s Economic Ambitions

President Hakainde Hichilema reaffirmed Zambia’s aim to reach over 3 million tonnes of copper production annually by 2031. Copper is central to Zambia’s development plan and energy transition ambitions. New exploration efforts like Ivanhoe’s will be vital to meeting this production milestone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zambia’s proactive approach to awarding exploration rights reinforces its position as a rising copper powerhouse. Ivanhoe’s expansion in the Copperbelt signals growing confidence in the region’s geology and regulatory support. The move could unlock vast new reserves essential for the global energy transition.

IRH-Mopani Copper deal faces court challenge, clouding Zambia’s copper growth

IRH-Mopani Copper Mine

The IRH-Mopani Copper deal now faces a constitutional challenge in Zambia. Petitioners argue the IRH-Mopani Copper deal requires parliamentary approval. As a result, the IRH-Mopani Copper deal could be nullified if judges agree.

What the challenge argues—and why it matters

The case claims the $1bn, 51pc stake sale breached constitutional rules. It says Mopani’s stake is a significant state asset requiring parliament’s consent. Meanwhile, ZCCM urged investors to act cautiously until the court rules. Legal uncertainty raises sovereign and project risk for copper investors. However, the filing does not halt operations today.

Production targets and national copper ambitions at stake

Backed by IRH, Mopani plans a sharp capacity ramp. Targets rise to 200,000 t/yr by 2027, then 226,000 t in 2028. Output would reach 300,000 t by 2029 if plans hold. Zambia produced 820,676 t of refined copper in 2024. The country aims for 3mn t/yr by 2031. Therefore, delays could complicate financing, offtake, and OEM supply chains.

Mopani’s growth plan assumes stable governance and capital access. Any nullification would force a deal restructure or new approval. Moreover, vendors and lenders could demand tighter covenants. Offtakers may seek risk premiums on long-term cathode contracts. Yet, a clarified legal path could unlock fresh capital quickly.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This test will define Zambia’s investment rulebook for strategic assets. A court-blessed process, even if slower, could lower long-term risk. Watch for interim rulings, government signals on parliament’s role, and offtake contract timing.

Barrick Copper Output Rises as Lumwana Expansion Anchors Growth Outlook

Barrick

Barrick copper output rose in the first quarter as stronger production from the Lumwana mine in Zambia supported the company’s wider copper growth strategy. The Canadian miner produced 49,000t of copper during the quarter, up 11% from 44,000t a year earlier.

Barrick copper output increased in line with expectations, although copper sales fell by 12% to 45,000t. The production gain reinforces Barrick’s focus on copper as a long-term growth metal alongside its gold business.

Barrick copper output remains guided at 190,000-220,000t for the full year. The company expects production to be stronger in the second half.

The copper business generated revenue of $556mn in the first quarter, up 17% from $474mn a year earlier. Group revenue rose to $5.2bn, while profit increased to $1.6bn.

Lumwana Drives Near-Term Copper Momentum

Lumwana was the main driver of Barrick’s first-quarter copper increase. The Zambian mine produced 32,000t during the quarter, up 19% from 27,000t a year earlier.

The operation has not faced concentrate shipment problems because all of its concentrate is smelted locally. This gives Lumwana a logistical advantage at a time when copper supply chains are increasingly exposed to transport, smelting and regional infrastructure constraints.

Barrick is now working on a major expansion at Lumwana. Once the mill expansion is completed, throughput is expected to rise to 52mn t/yr from 27mn t/yr.

The expansion is expected to lift copper production at the site to 240,000 t/yr, more than double current annual output. First copper from the expansion is expected in the first quarter of 2028.

This makes Lumwana one of Barrick’s most important copper growth assets. It also strengthens Zambia’s role in global copper supply as governments and manufacturers seek more secure sources of the metal for electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure.

Jabal Sayid Improves as Zaldivar and Reko Diq Face Pressure

Barrick’s Jabal Sayid joint venture with Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia produced 18,000t of copper in the first quarter, up from 17,000t a year earlier. Barrick owns half of the project.

The Zaldivar joint venture in Chile with Antofagasta produced 16,000t, down 11% from a year earlier. Barrick also owns half of that operation.

The mixed project performance shows how Barrick’s copper portfolio remains dependent on mine-specific operating conditions. Zambia provided the upside, while Chile reduced the overall gain.

Barrick’s longer-term copper pipeline also includes Reko Diq in Pakistan. However, the company said in March that it plans to slow development activity there because of security risks in Pakistan and the Middle East.

Several contractors at Reko Diq have sent force majeure notices to Barrick. This underlines the political and security challenges facing large copper growth projects in higher-risk jurisdictions.

The broader supply-chain message is clear. Copper demand is rising, but new production depends on execution, security, local smelting, infrastructure and permitting. Barrick’s Lumwana expansion is advancing, while Reko Diq shows how geopolitical risk can slow even major resource projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Barrick’s copper growth story is increasingly centred on Lumwana because it combines scale, expansion potential and local smelting access. The company’s challenge is to convert copper optionality into reliable supply while security risks delay larger frontier projects such as Reko Diq.

US Copper Flows Shift West as Washington Targets African Supply Chains

Copper

US copper flows are becoming a strategic policy priority as Washington seeks to redirect African copper away from China-oriented supply chains and into western manufacturing networks. The shift shows how copper is moving beyond its traditional role as an industrial commodity.

US policymakers are pursuing a dual strategy. They want to accelerate domestic copper projects and processing while also securing international copper sources that can feed US and allied supply chains faster.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has become central to this effort. The country offers high-quality resources and faster supply potential than many long-dated greenfield copper projects.

US copper flows are therefore being reshaped through offtake agreements, financing structures, infrastructure plans and strategic partnerships. The goal is to create secure mine-to-end-use supply chains that support American manufacturing and reduce dependence on China-linked material routes.

African Copper Becomes a Strategic Supply Target

The DRC’s copper output has historically moved east into Chinese-controlled or China-oriented value chains. Washington now wants to build alternative routes that connect African copper to the US and allied industrial base.

This is not only about copper cathode or concentrate volumes. It is about who controls logistics, financing, offtake, processing and final market access.

The US is already using state-backed financing and trading structures to compete for African copper and cobalt. The DRC, Zambia and Guinea are emerging as priority jurisdictions in this wider mineral strategy.

Glencore’s possible sale of a 40% stake in two DRC copper-cobalt mines to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium shows how policy and capital are beginning to move together. More US interest is also emerging in Congolese copper-cobalt, manganese, gold and lithium assets.

This matters because China has built deep influence across African mining, processing and trading channels. Western buyers cannot change copper flows only by expressing demand. They need financing, infrastructure, political support and long-term offtake commitments.

The US strategy also reflects a broader recognition that copper supply security cannot rely only on domestic mines. US copper resources are substantial, including brownfield leach opportunities and idle stockpiles, but permitting remains a major constraint.

International supply partnerships can move faster than many US projects. That makes African copper strategically valuable as Washington tries to support manufacturing, grid expansion, defence supply chains and electrification.

Inventory Distortions Change Copper Market Economics

US copper flows are also being affected by tariff expectations and inventory shifts. Around 1.9mn-2mn t of copper metal inventory is now sitting globally, with roughly 1.2mn t located in the US.

That is an unusually high share because the US consumes about 2mn t/yr, while China consumes roughly 15mn t/yr. The result is a market where headline global stocks look large, but copper outside the US can feel much tighter.

This inventory concentration changes copper economics. The same copper unit can carry different value depending on location, policy exposure, tariff risk and available delivery route.

That marks a major shift from the older copper market model. Copper was once priced mainly around construction cycles, manufacturing demand and visible exchange stocks. It is now increasingly priced around jurisdiction, logistics and strategic access.

The CME-LME arbitrage has reopened to encourage flows into the US. This reflects how policy expectations can pull metal across regions even when global balances appear more comfortable.

Physical demand remains supportive. Chinese demand has stayed resilient, Yangshan premiums have strengthened, and Shanghai inventories have continued to draw. These signals suggest that the broader copper market remains tighter than simple stock numbers imply.

Copper’s role in grids, electrification and data centres has also changed how governments view the metal. Copper is now becoming a strategic asset for industrial policy, not only a material input for construction and manufacturing.

The biggest commercial opportunities may therefore shift from pure price arbitrage to control over flows. Traders, miners and governments will increasingly compete through logistics, financing, offtake and jurisdictional positioning.

US copper flows will remain central to that competition. The race is no longer only about producing more copper. It is about deciding where copper goes, who processes it and which industrial systems it supports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is becoming a policy metal because electrification has turned physical access into a strategic advantage. The next copper cycle will not be defined only by price, but by who controls African supply routes, financing and end-use allocation.

Sinomine to Build Copper, Gallium, and Germanium Smelters in Africa: A Strategic Move for Resource Expansion

Sinomine

Chinese diversified mining company Sinomine Resource has announced a bold step in its global resource strategy by unveiling plans to build a copper smelter at its Kitumba mine in Zambia and a germanium/gallium recycling facility at the Tsumeb smelter in Namibia. These investments come as part of Sinomine's ongoing strategy to expand its reach in the mining sector, focusing on copper, germanium, and gallium—key strategic metals for the global market.

Sinomine’s Copper Smelter in Zambia

The first phase of Sinomine’s expansion involves a $562.9 million investment in a new copper smelter at its Kitumba mine in Zambia. The smelter will process 3.5 million tons per year of copper ore, with a production capacity of 60,000 tons per year of copper cathode. The project is set to be completed by late 2026, with a construction period of 1½ years, and will have an expected operating life of 11 years after commissioning. The smelter’s establishment aligns with Sinomine's strategy of expanding its copper resources globally, particularly in Africa, a continent rich in mineral deposits.

Sinomine took control of the Kitumba mine in March and began production in August, marking a significant milestone in its overseas copper operations. The Kitumba project complements Sinomine’s other Zambian ventures, including the commissioning of a second concentrator at the Kasisi copper and gold mine earlier in 2023. This move has significantly increased copper ore processing capacity, further bolstering Sinomine’s growing presence in Zambia.

Expansion in Namibia: Gallium and Germanium Recycling Facility

In addition to copper, Sinomine has also turned its attention to germanium and gallium, two metals that are crucial to industries such as information technology, renewable energy, and aviation. The company is investing $222 million in a multi-metal recycling facility at the Tsumeb smelter in Namibia. The facility will have an annual processing capacity of 200,000 tons and will produce 33 tons per year of zone-melting grade germanium, 11 tons per year of 99.9% industrial-grade gallium, and 10,900 tons per year of zinc. This ambitious project will be built in two phases and is expected to operate for 15 years. However, detailed launch dates are still to be disclosed.

The polymetallic slag at the Tsumeb smelter is estimated to contain substantial quantities of germanium, gallium, and other metals, including zinc and copper, making it an attractive site for advanced metal recycling and extraction. Sinomine’s investment reflects the growing global demand for germanium and gallium, both of which have seen price increases following China’s introduction of export licensing schemes in August 2023. These metals are considered critical for high-tech applications, and their strategic importance has driven companies worldwide to diversify their supply sources.

The Global Significance of Germanium and Gallium

Germanium, used extensively in industries ranging from telecommunications to clean energy, is a strategic resource that is primarily produced in China, which has been reducing its export volume. The global reserves of germanium are estimated at just 8,600 tons, according to the US Geological Survey. Gallium, which is essential for electronics and solar technology, is also in high demand. Sinomine's strategic investments in germanium and gallium facilities will position the company to capitalize on the rising global need for these critical materials, while reducing its reliance on Chinese supply chains.

Conclusion

Sinomine’s investment in copper and multi-metal recycling projects in Zambia and Namibia highlights its forward-thinking approach to securing a diverse range of valuable resources. As global demand for copper, germanium, and gallium grows, Sinomine is positioning itself as a key player in the African mining sector. With an expanding footprint across the continent, the company is set to shape the future of metal production and recycling, supporting industries from renewable energy to electronics.

Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary to scale Zambian copper output

Vedanta Resources

Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary CopperTech Metals to drive long-term growth at Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia. By launching Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary, the group links Wall Street capital with African copper resources. As a result, Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary becomes a central vehicle for meeting rising global copper demand.

CopperTech Metals targets aggressive Konkola production growth

CopperTech plans to significantly expand capacity at Konkola Copper Mines over the next decade. The US-based unit expects to invest $1.5bn, in addition to Vedanta’s $3bn commitment. Together, these investments aim to lift annual production from about 140,000t this year to 300,000t/yr by 2031.

The company is already signalling ambitions beyond that medium-term goal. Over time, CopperTech aims to push Konkola output toward 500,000t/yr, subject to geology, infrastructure and market conditions. This growth profile would position Konkola among Africa’s more significant copper hubs. It would also align the mine with long-cycle demand from energy transition, EVs and grid expansion.

Ownership stability is another critical pillar for the strategy. The Zambian government returned control of Konkola to Vedanta in July 2024, ending a protracted dispute. That resolution allows CopperTech to plan multi-billion dollar capex on a clearer legal and operational footing. It also signals Zambia’s desire to attract investment while retaining leverage over strategic mineral assets.

Strategic rationale behind Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary

The decision that Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary reflects the strategic importance of copper for energy transition. CopperTech gives Vedanta a US-facing corporate structure that can access capital markets and strategic offtakers. This structure may improve financing flexibility for future plant expansions and underground development.

Meanwhile, Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary in a context of tightening global copper supply. Many legacy mines face declining grades, while new greenfield projects struggle with permitting and ESG scrutiny. In this environment, brownfield expansion at Konkola offers a relatively faster route to new tonnes. It also supports Zambia’s ambition to grow its share of global refined copper supply.

As a result, Vedanta launches US copper subsidiary not only restructures ownership but also reframes the mine within global supply chains. Copper produced at Konkola will increasingly feed renewable energy, EV and infrastructure value chains. That link will draw greater scrutiny around environmental performance, community engagement and governance standards in the Copperbelt.

The Metalnomist Commentary

By channeling new investment through CopperTech, Vedanta is betting that US-linked governance and capital access will enhance Konkola’s strategic value. The scale of planned expansions underscores how central Zambian ore will be in the next copper upcycle. For traders, smelters and OEMs, the real question now is whether execution, regulation and ESG performance can keep pace with these ambitious volume targets.

Jubilee Metals copper output rebound accelerates on Zambia upgrades

Jubilee Metals

Jubilee Metals copper output rebound is gaining traction at the start of its 2026 financial year. The miner reported a 65.5% quarter-on-quarter jump in copper unit production to 938 tonnes in the first quarter. Therefore, Jubilee Metals copper output rebound signals that its multi-year investment cycle is starting to pay off.

Jubilee Metals copper output rebound follows a difficult 2025 investment phase. Copper production fell 35.4% to 2,211 tonnes in the year ended June 2025. Meanwhile, the company completed upgrades at its Roan concentrator and advanced development at the Molefe mine.

Roan and Molefe deliver early operational leverage

Roan concentrator stability is driving most of the near-term uplift. The plant is running at its targeted feed rate of 30,000 tonnes per month. However, Jubilee can lift throughput to 45,000 tonnes per month after the rainy season ends.

Molefe is also increasing feed into the group’s downstream system. Pit 2 construction is complete, and operations started in the first quarter of FY2026. Meanwhile, deliveries of high-grade run-of-mine material to the Sable refinery stepped up from 3,500 to 4,500 tonnes per month during November.

Jubilee is targeting 8,500 tonnes per month from the third quarter of FY2026. Therefore, execution through the rainy season will shape whether the company reaches the upper end of guidance. The company also reported no material power outages in the quarter after adding a private power purchase agreement for Roan and Sable.

Guidance reset highlights copper upside and portfolio reshaping

Jubilee set FY2026 copper unit production guidance at 4,500–5,100 tonnes. This would more than double output versus FY2025. As a result, the group is positioning Zambia copper production as a larger earnings driver.

Recent financials show why the ramp-up matters. Copper revenue fell 17.9% to $15.2mn in FY2025, and copper earnings swung to a $5.2mn loss. However, the higher run rate should improve fixed-cost absorption if throughput stays stable.

Jubilee is also moving to sell its South African chrome and PGM operations. The South African Competition Tribunal approved the disposal on 14 November. The transaction is expected to complete by the end of December 2025, while Zambia becomes the core growth focus.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This rebound looks operational, not purely price-driven, because feed and uptime improved. However, the rainy season remains the real stress test for concentrator consistency. If power stability holds, Jubilee can convert throughput gains into margin recovery.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.

Copper Trade’s Future Rests on Traders Amid Supply Chain Strains

Mercuria Energy Trading

Growing Global Demand, Concentrate Deficit, and Strategic Investments Highlight Traders’ Rising Influence in Copper Markets

The role of traders in the global copper market is becoming increasingly critical, especially as supply chain disruptions deepen. At the 2025 Mining Indaba in Cape Town, industry experts emphasized that a growing shortage of copper concentrates is driving this trend, despite sufficient metal availability in the short term.

Supply Disruptions and Demand Growth Attract Trading Houses

Copper concentrate deficits are expected to impact the refined copper market more significantly in the coming years. According to Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research at Mercuria Energy Trading, traders will fill essential gaps as disruptions rise and demand accelerates. He stated that countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are taking active steps to trade minerals directly, enhancing regional participation in the global market.

Mercuria’s December agreement with Zambia to launch a metals trading arm exemplifies how nations are seeking to gain value from local copper production. Zambia, one of Africa’s largest copper producers, aims to ramp up output to 3 million tonnes by 2030. Snowdon stressed that similar strategic partnerships will bring expertise and foster industry growth.

Gulf and Private Equity Eye Strategic Copper Assets

Beyond Africa, interest is growing from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which are diversifying away from fossil fuels. Even small-scale investments in copper assets by these nations reflect a broader shift towards clean energy supply chains, where copper plays a pivotal role. Despite this enthusiasm, Graeme Train of Trafigura noted that private equity involvement remains relatively nascent, though capital flow has increased in recent years.

Geopolitical Risks Pose Challenges for Copper Investment

While traders are positioned to benefit from increasing market complexities, global political tensions could threaten progress. Panellists warned that the ongoing US-China trade conflict, combined with rising tariffs and inflation risks, could stall key copper projects. Notably, about 75% of global copper ventures involve Chinese equity, raising vulnerability amid geopolitical strain.

In conclusion, traders will likely become central to navigating the copper market's evolving landscape. Their ability to manage risk, bridge supply chain gaps, and mobilize capital will define the next phase of copper’s global trade dynamics.

Sulfur Supply Disruptions Threaten Copper Cathode Production

Copper Cathode

Sulfur supply disruptions are emerging as a serious risk for copper cathode production as the US-Israeli-Iran war disrupts shipping and tightens global sulfur availability. Copper producers rely on sulfuric acid to leach, dissolve, and refine copper into high-purity cathode.

The Middle East supplies roughly one-quarter of global sulfur output, while nearly half of sulfur shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A de facto closure of the route has delayed deliveries and raised concern across copper supply chains.

Sulfur supply disruptions matter because sulfur is the key feedstock for sulfuric acid. Without stable acid supply, copper producers face higher costs, slower processing, lower cathode output, and possible bottlenecks between mining and refining.

African Copper Producers Face the Highest Sulfuric Acid Risk

African copper producers face the greatest exposure because the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia depend heavily on imported sulfuric acid. Much of that supply moves through Middle East-linked shipping routes, making both countries vulnerable to prolonged logistics disruption.

Sulfuric acid plays a central role in electrowinning, where producers leach copper from lower-grade ore to create copper sulfate solution. Electrolysis then deposits copper onto cathode plates.

Sulfuric acid also supports electrorefining, where impure copper anodes dissolve in a sulfuric acid and copper sulfate solution. The process leaves impurities behind and plates 99.9% pure copper onto cathode starter sheets.

If acid supply remains tight, DRC and Zambian producers could face lower cathode output and higher operating costs. Ore stockpiling may also rise if refining capacity cannot keep pace with mined material.

Regional Exposure Could Reshape Refined Copper Premiums

China faces a second tier of exposure because its large smelting and leaching base requires substantial sulfuric acid supply. Chinese smelters generate sulfuric acid as a byproduct, which offers some short-term protection, but lower sulfur imports could still raise domestic acid prices and pressure leaching operations.

Chile and Peru appear more insulated because their copper industries rely more heavily on sulfide ore smelting, which produces sulfuric acid internally. Chile still has exposure through leaching operations, but both countries carry less direct risk than African cathode producers.

Sulfur supply disruptions could therefore reshape regional copper premiums if shortages persist. Refined cathode supply may tighten, production costs may rise, and consumers could increase their use of higher-grade copper scrap where substitution is technically feasible.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sulfur is often treated as a secondary input, but this disruption shows its strategic role in copper refining. The copper market may focus on mine output, yet sulfuric acid availability can decide how much copper actually reaches cathode form.