IRH-Mopani Copper deal faces court challenge, clouding Zambia’s copper growth

IRH-Mopani Copper Mine

The IRH-Mopani Copper deal now faces a constitutional challenge in Zambia. Petitioners argue the IRH-Mopani Copper deal requires parliamentary approval. As a result, the IRH-Mopani Copper deal could be nullified if judges agree.

What the challenge argues—and why it matters

The case claims the $1bn, 51pc stake sale breached constitutional rules. It says Mopani’s stake is a significant state asset requiring parliament’s consent. Meanwhile, ZCCM urged investors to act cautiously until the court rules. Legal uncertainty raises sovereign and project risk for copper investors. However, the filing does not halt operations today.

Production targets and national copper ambitions at stake

Backed by IRH, Mopani plans a sharp capacity ramp. Targets rise to 200,000 t/yr by 2027, then 226,000 t in 2028. Output would reach 300,000 t by 2029 if plans hold. Zambia produced 820,676 t of refined copper in 2024. The country aims for 3mn t/yr by 2031. Therefore, delays could complicate financing, offtake, and OEM supply chains.

Mopani’s growth plan assumes stable governance and capital access. Any nullification would force a deal restructure or new approval. Moreover, vendors and lenders could demand tighter covenants. Offtakers may seek risk premiums on long-term cathode contracts. Yet, a clarified legal path could unlock fresh capital quickly.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This test will define Zambia’s investment rulebook for strategic assets. A court-blessed process, even if slower, could lower long-term risk. Watch for interim rulings, government signals on parliament’s role, and offtake contract timing.