Fresh Concerns Over the US' 80% Tariff on Hafnium

Hafnium

Trade Restrictions on Chinese Hafnium Raise Fears of Shortages and Price Increases

The recent tariff increase on hafnium exports from China to the US has raised significant concerns within the market. Under President Donald Trump's new tariff regime, hafnium is now subject to an 80% duty, which could create supply shortages in the coming months. This marks a substantial increase from the previous 25% tariff rate, placing additional pressure on the already limited global supply of hafnium.

US Dependency on Hafnium Imports

While the US does produce hafnium, it is not self-sufficient and still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. Global hafnium production is relatively small, estimated at only 70-75 tonnes per year. The supply is concentrated in just four countries: France, the US, China, and Russia. In January 2024, China exported 1,499kg of hafnium to the US, according to Chinese customs data. However, North American producers have limited capacity, and competition from countries like Japan and South Korea, which have increased their hafnium purchases for nuclear power generation, is intensifying.

Hafnium is a critical material used in industries such as aerospace, semiconductors, space, and nuclear. However, the growing trade tensions and export restrictions are exacerbating the challenges faced by Western consumers, particularly since many have reduced imports from Russia due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

Tariff Increase and License Delays Exacerbate Hafnium Supply Issues

As tariffs on hafnium have risen, particularly with the new 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports, many industry players are grappling with the uncertainty of future supply. In February 2024, US and Chinese trade partners discussed sharing tariff costs, but the idea was rejected by some Chinese sellers due to limited profit margins.

Furthermore, since September 2024, China has placed hafnium on its dual-use items export control list, creating significant delays in the export license approval process. These delays have worsened the supply situation, as exporters are now required to notify authorities about the end-users and their specific applications for the material. Additionally, some sellers are now being asked to visit the facilities where their metal is sold to verify its usage, putting further strain on traders.

Hafnium Prices and Market Outlook

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and export delays has led to a rise in hafnium prices. Rotterdam prices have been relatively flat this year due to the lack of spot demand, as consumers have replenished stocks in advance. However, long-term contracts remain high, with some buyers paying close to $6,000 per kilogram or more, as firms signed multi-year contracts during earlier supply crunches.

On April 3, 2024, the market in China weakened slightly as suppliers accepted lower bid prices to cope with sufficient spot stocks and an anticipated decrease in purchases from US consumers. Prices for 99.95% grade hafnium crystal bar with 0.2% zirconium fell to ¥16,300–16,500 per kilogram ex-works, down from ¥16,500–17,000 per kilogram just a week earlier.

China Zirconium Oxychloride Prices Hit Three-Year High on Hafnium Demand

Zirconium Oxychloride

China zirconium oxychloride prices have climbed to their highest level in more than three years as higher zircon sand costs, stronger hafnium demand and tighter spot availability reshape the market. Prices for 36% grade material reached 17,500-18,000 yuan/t on 2 June.

China zirconium oxychloride prices have risen by about 35% at the midpoint since early March. Producers began lifting offers after falling prices compressed margins between July 2025 and March 2026.

China zirconium oxychloride prices are expected to remain supported as major international zircon sand suppliers increase third-quarter offers into China. Higher raw material costs are combining with expanding aerospace, nuclear and industrial gas turbine demand.

The market is also tightening structurally as some Chinese producers divert material away from the spot market and into higher-value zirconium and hafnium processing.

Zircon Sand Costs Push Oxychloride Production Higher

Zircon sand is the main feedstock for zirconium oxychloride production, making changes in concentrate pricing critical to downstream economics.

Major suppliers outside China have raised third-quarter export offers. South African producer Richards Bay Minerals increased new-business pricing significantly from first-quarter levels, with 66% zircon sand expected at $1,680-1,780/t cif China.

Tronox has also lifted third-quarter prices. Australian-origin 66% zircon sand is now offered at $1,950-1,975/t cif China, while South African-origin material is priced at $1,935-1,955/t.

The increases reflect tighter availability, higher operating costs and reduced production by some heavy mineral producers following weaker margins.

Chinese domestic zircon sand prices have moved in the same direction. Prices for 65% grade material reached 10,100-10,300 yuan/t in early June, up about 11% from mid-March.

These increases are squeezing zirconium chemical producers. Higher feedstock costs must increasingly be passed through into oxychloride pricing to protect margins.

Spot availability has tightened further because some producers have reduced commercial supply. Zibo Huantuo stopped supplying the open market after its acquisition by Shenzhen SinoHf, with production redirected into high-purity and nuclear-grade hafnium and zirconium feedstock.

Liaoning Huaxiang has also remained offline after suspending its 13,000 t/yr oxychloride operation in November 2025 because of losses.

Hafnium and Export Demand Tighten Zirconium Feedstock

Hafnium has become one of the strongest sources of incremental zirconium oxychloride demand. New projects have emerged to meet demand from industrial gas turbines, aerospace and nuclear applications.

China’s hafnium sector consumed around 43,000t of oxychloride in 2025, representing roughly 15% of domestic output of about 280,000t.

Demand has accelerated further this year. Hafnium producers purchased an estimated 15,975t of oxychloride in January-April, up 69% from a year earlier.

This growth is strategically important because hafnium and zirconium are chemically closely associated and require complex separation. Rising demand for high-purity hafnium can therefore pull more zirconium oxychloride into specialised downstream processing.

Export demand is also strengthening. China exported 19,709t of zirconium oxychloride in January-April, up 24% from a year earlier.

Japan was the largest growth market, with imports more than doubling to 10,510t. Shipments to India and the UK also increased significantly.

Unlike several other strategic metals, zirconium is not currently covered by China’s dual-use export control scheme. That has allowed international demand to continue flowing through normal commercial channels.

However, higher raw material prices and reduced spot availability are tightening the market regardless of export controls. Many regular buyers have already secured June-July contracts to reduce exposure to further price increases.

The combination of rising zircon sand costs, stronger hafnium consumption and shrinking spot supply suggests zirconium oxychloride prices could remain firm into the third quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zirconium market is being pulled upward by more than raw material inflation. Hafnium demand from aerospace, nuclear and gas turbines is converting zirconium oxychloride into a strategically tighter feedstock, increasing the value of integrated Zr-Hf processing capacity.

China Nuclear Capacity Expansion Strengthens Demand for Hafnium and Zirconium

the China Nuclear Energy

China nuclear capacity continues to expand as the country retains the global lead in nuclear power construction. China currently operates 60 commercial nuclear power units and has another 36 units under construction, according to the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association.

The scale of China nuclear capacity growth is significant for energy security and industrial materials demand. Projects under construction in China account for more than half of global nuclear capacity currently being built.

China nuclear capacity is also set to grow further because 16 additional units have already received approvals and are awaiting construction. The country has started construction on two nuclear power units so far this year and plans to complete seven units within the year.

The country’s installed nuclear power capacity has reached 125GW, ranking first globally, according to the association. This keeps China at the centre of global nuclear construction and strengthens downstream demand for strategic metals used in reactor systems.

Nuclear Buildout Raises Demand for Hafnium and Zirconium

China’s nuclear expansion is important for several minor metals, especially hafnium and zirconium. These materials sit deep inside the nuclear supply chain, but they are critical to reactor performance and safety.

Hafnium is mainly used in control rods for nuclear power plants. It has strong neutron absorption properties, making it valuable for regulating fission reactions inside reactors.

Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge is used as a core structural material for fuel assemblies. Zirconium is valued in nuclear systems because it has low neutron absorption and strong corrosion resistance under reactor operating conditions.

The growth in nuclear construction therefore creates direct demand for high-purity and nuclear-qualified materials. These materials require strict processing, quality control and certification, which makes supply more specialized than ordinary industrial metals.

China’s large buildout also creates a strategic demand signal for upstream zirconium minerals, zirconium sponge, hafnium separation and downstream nuclear components. As more units move from approval to construction and commissioning, material procurement will become more important.

Export Controls Tighten Strategic Minor Metals Supply

The nuclear sector is not the only source of demand for hafnium. Industrial gas turbines also use hafnium in high-performance alloy systems, creating additional competition for supply.

Prices have risen because of stronger demand from nuclear power and industrial gas turbine sectors, while supply has tightened because of reduced exports from China. This makes hafnium a more visible strategic material in global industrial supply chains.

China has included hafnium in its strict dual-use item export control scheme. This constrains global availability and increases supply risk for users outside China.

The issue highlights a broader trend in critical materials. Small-volume metals can become major chokepoints when they support high-value sectors such as nuclear power, aerospace, defence, turbines and advanced manufacturing.

For global nuclear developers, the supply chain challenge extends beyond uranium. Reactor construction also depends on certified zirconium, hafnium, specialty alloys, forgings, control rod materials and precision components.

China’s nuclear construction lead therefore has two effects. It supports domestic energy security while also increasing China’s influence over the strategic materials used in nuclear and high-temperature industrial applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s nuclear buildout shows how energy security is becoming a materials security issue. Hafnium and nuclear-grade zirconium may be small-volume markets, but they are critical bottlenecks for reactors, turbines and strategic industrial systems.

China hafnium exports rise despite stricter curbs in 1H 2025

Hafnium

China hafnium exports rose year to date despite tighter controls. Strong aerospace, nuclear, turbine, and semiconductor demand drove resilience. China hafnium exports reached 14,339kg, up 8.5pc on the year. Meanwhile, China hafnium exports remained anchored by US and UK buyers.

Tighter controls whipsaw monthly flows

June shipments plunged as licensing rules tightened further. Exports fell to 264kg, down 84pc year on year. Volumes also dropped 91pc from May’s 2,987kg. Dual-use rules required deeper documentation and new approvals. Several producers waited up to eight weeks for permits.

Aerospace and chips sustain year-to-date strength

US and UK demand underpinned first-half totals. Combined shipments to both markets reached 7,724kg, or 54pc of exports. Downstream users sought hafnium for superalloys and control rods. Semiconductor makers also lifted purchases for advanced lithography components. Supply chains balanced curbs with forward orders and inventory builds.

Export compliance now shapes trade flows more than price. China introduced separate hafnium codes and permit rules in 2023. Buyers must provide detailed end-use and end-user statements. As a result, exporters prioritize predictable customers and audited channels. Market participants expect continued volatility around month-end approvals.

Hafnium’s strategic role raises substitution questions. However, performance demands limit feasible alternatives in superalloys. Gas turbines and jet engines still prefer hafnium-bearing alloys. Therefore, risk management now focuses on diversification and recycling. Contract structures increasingly include licensing contingencies and longer lead times.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The split screen is clear: yearly totals look firm, yet monthly flows swing on permits. Expect intermittent tightness as paperwork bunches and audits intensify. Prudent buyers will secure multi-origin supply and pre-clear licenses.

Prospech Boosts Hafnium and Niobium Exploration in Finland Amidst Strong Market

Prospech

Australian junior mining company, Prospech, is significantly expanding its Jokikangas rare earth and hafnium project in Finland.  This strategic move comes as the prices of hafnium and niobium remain elevated, driven by robust demand from key industrial sectors.  Prospech's focus on these critical metals positions them well to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Expanding the Jokikangas Project

Prospech initially acquired the Jokikangas project in 2023, where they subsequently discovered high-grade deposits of both niobium and hafnium.  The company has now secured an additional 4,852 hectares, bringing the total project area to an impressive 7,062 hectares. This expansion underscores Prospech’s commitment to thoroughly exploring and developing the site’s potential.

Leveraging Historical Data and Resampling Core Samples

The Jokikangas site exhibits iron-hosted, zircon-rich zones containing hafnium, which Prospech has visually identified. While these zones have been defined, the drill core samples remain largely unsampled for hafnium and other valuable elements. Notably, the high-grade zone boasts concentrations exceeding 1.5% niobium, zirconium, and rare earth elements, extending down to a depth of 250 meters. Prospech will utilize existing archived drill hole data from previous exploration activities conducted by companies such as Outokumpu as far back as 1981.  Additionally, they will leverage core resampling work performed by the Finnish geological survey (GTK) in 2020.  By resampling these historically preserved drill cores, Prospech aims to comprehensively assess the project's overall resource potential and refine their understanding of the deposit's characteristics.

Niobium Market Dynamics

The niobium market is currently experiencing a period of strength, primarily fueled by increased demand from the aerospace and defense industries.  Coupled with reduced supply from Brazil, a major niobium producer, this demand has propelled a steady increase in niobium columbite prices over the past two years.  Market analysts predict that the demand from these critical sectors will continue to bolster the niobium market well into 2025. This positive market outlook further reinforces the strategic importance of Prospech’s expanded exploration efforts.

Steady Hafnium Exports from China Despite Production Disruptions

China's hafnium exports, including unwrought metal, scrap, and powder, remained largely stable from January to August 2024. According to customs data, the country exported 15,887kg during this period, closely matching last year's 15,759kg. However, the August 2024 exports of 1,744kg marked a 6.3% drop from August 2023 but represented an 89% increase from July 2024.

Exports to China’s top two destinations, the US and the UK, accounted for 62% of total shipments. These reached 9,907kg, a 6.6% rise compared to the same period in 2023. However, export volumes fluctuated, with significant declines in April and July due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance, particularly at a Baoji-based producer responsible for hafnium separation from zirconium.

Market Impact and Price Trends

Following production disruptions and reduced international demand, China's hafnium prices have faced a downward trend since late August. Prices for 99.95% grade hafnium crystal bars dropped to 17,500-18,000 yuan/kg ($2,492-2,564/kg) by mid-September. Export prices have similarly declined, and Chinese exporters are considering further price concessions for the remainder of 2024 and early 2025 to maintain competitiveness in the weakening international market.

ATI Aerospace and Defense Demand Lifts 2026 Guidance

ATI

ATI aerospace and defense demand strengthened in the first quarter, prompting the specialty alloys manufacturer to raise its full-year earnings outlook. The Texas-based company lifted its 2026 adjusted profit guidance by $35mn to $1.01bn-1.06bn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand was strongest in jet engine materials, defence alloys and missile-related products. The company exceeded the high end of its first-quarter forecast by nearly $7mn, reporting adjusted profit of $232mn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand shows that high-performance metals remain central to the aircraft production ramp and defence replenishment cycle. Titanium, nickel-based alloys, isothermal forgings, zirconium and hafnium are all tied to programmes where qualification, lead times and supply reliability matter.

Quarterly profit rose by 20% on the year to nearly $120mn, while revenue increased by 6.2% to almost $1.2bn.

Jet Engine Materials Keep Specialty Alloy Lead Times Tight

Commercial jet engine sales rose by 12% on the year to $472mn, making the segment ATI’s largest product category. The company expects mid-teens growth in jet engine sales this year.

Demand is being driven by original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket service providers. Both need reliable access to specialty alloys and isothermal forgings as engine production and repair activity expand.

This is strategically important because jet engines consume some of the most demanding materials in the aerospace supply chain. Nickel-based superalloys, titanium alloys and premium-quality forgings must meet strict performance standards under heat, stress and fatigue conditions.

ATI is also working to qualify its new electron-beam furnace for premium-quality titanium at its Richland, Washington facility. This material is used in rotor-grade engine parts.

Approval of the furnace would help reduce pressure on ATI’s other premium-quality titanium melting operations. Some lead times for this material are now close to two years.

That lead-time signal matters. Aerospace buyers are not only chasing capacity. They are trying to secure qualified melt routes for materials that cannot be easily substituted.

Commercial airframe sales moved lower in the first quarter, falling by 9.3% to nearly $187mn. Airframers and OEMs continued drawing down internal stocks of raw materials and components.

However, ATI expects full-year airframe sales to grow by mid-to-upper single digits, with demand backloaded into the second half as inventories normalise. This should support stronger sales of standard-quality titanium used in structural aircraft components.

The company also expects much stronger titanium sales growth in 2027, based on long-term order patterns and customer production plans.

Defence Orders Strengthen Zirconium, Hafnium and Missile Materials

Defence sales rose by 9.3% on the year to $139mn in the first quarter. ATI expects full-year defence revenue to rise by low-to-mid teens from 2025 levels.

The company renewed a five-year, $1bn contract supporting the US Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This will drive continued demand for specialty alloys containing zirconium and hafnium.

Zirconium and hafnium are strategically important in nuclear and defence supply chains. Their use requires tight quality control, reliable processing and long-term customer qualification.

Missile-related demand also strengthened. ATI said first-quarter missile revenue doubled from a year earlier as contractors increased production and replenished munitions inventories.

The company supplies titanium and nickel products used in structural and propulsion applications for missile programmes, including Tomahawk, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.

Nickel-based and specialty alloys remained ATI’s largest revenue source, accounting for 49% of total sales in the quarter. Precision forgings, castings and components accounted for 20%, while titanium and titanium-based alloys represented 17%.

The mix shows ATI’s strategic position. The company is exposed to aerospace engine growth, defence replenishment, naval nuclear programmes and missile production, all of which depend on hard-to-qualify specialty metals.

ATI’s raised guidance therefore reflects more than a cyclical recovery. It points to structural demand for advanced materials across aerospace, defence and energy-security-related programmes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ATI’s guidance increase confirms that aerospace and defence demand is pushing pressure upstream into qualified melt capacity and specialty alloys. The real bottleneck is not generic metal supply, but premium titanium, nickel alloys, zirconium, hafnium and forgings that meet mission-critical specifications.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

Nuclear Renaissance: Surge in Reactor Constructions to Boost Metal Demand

Nuclear

As global nuclear energy capacity is projected to hit record highs by 2025, the demand for specific nonferrous metals critical for reactor components is set to soar.

Expanding Global Nuclear Capacity

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris, there are currently 63 nuclear reactors under construction worldwide, totaling over 70GW of capacity. This level of development, one of the highest since 1990, heralds a new era for nuclear energy, supported by the extension of lifetimes for over 60 reactors globally in the past five years.

Metals Critical to Nuclear Technology

The increasing number of nuclear reactors, particularly those based on recent Chinese and Russian designs, is driving demand for metals such as zirconium alloy and hafnium. Zirconium alloy, known for its low neutron absorption rate and resistance to heat and corrosion, is essential for nuclear fuel rod cladding. Conversely, hafnium, which absorbs neutrons at a high rate, is pivotal in control rods that regulate the nuclear fission process.

Future Trends in Metal Demand

With the nuclear sector's expansion, the need for these metals is expected to rise sharply. The IEA also notes significant upcoming demand from sectors like data centers, driven by digitalization and AI advancements, although current electricity use by data centers is relatively modest compared to sectors like electric vehicles. Hafnium demand in the nuclear industry is estimated to grow by 4% annually, with additional increases expected in aerospace and non-aerospace superalloys.

Civil Aircraft Tariff Exemption Shields Aerospace Trade but Metal Duties Remain

Airplanes parts

Civil aircraft tariff exemption rules will shield commercial aircraft, engines, parts, components, and subassemblies from the latest US import tariff. However, the carve-out does not remove existing tariff pressure on several critical aerospace metals used across aircraft manufacturing and high-performance supply chains.

The latest US measure applies a temporary 10pc tariff on most imports for 150 days from 24 February, with a possible 15pc rate subject to official implementation. Civil aviation products are excluded under annex I, covering all non-military aircraft and their related engines, parts, components, and other subassemblies.

The exemption follows strong aerospace industry resistance to earlier trade action. Commercial aviation supply chains are deeply global, and aircraft production depends on cross-border movement of precision parts, engines, structures, avionics, and certified materials. A broad tariff on these flows would have raised costs across Boeing, Airbus suppliers, engine makers, maintenance providers, and aerospace metals processors.

Aerospace Supply Chains Avoid Direct Aircraft Tariff Shock

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects one of the most globally integrated industrial supply chains from immediate disruption. Commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on certified components moving repeatedly between countries before final assembly, delivery, and maintenance.

This carve-out also supports the July EU-US agreement that restored transatlantic free trade on aircraft and component parts. That matters because Europe and the United States remain tightly connected in aircraft structures, engines, landing gear, fasteners, forgings, castings, and advanced materials.

However, the exemption does not mean aerospace manufacturers are free from trade cost risk. Tariffs can still affect upstream materials and intermediate inputs before they become certified aircraft parts. This creates a split market where finished aviation components may be protected, while key metals used to make them still face separate tariff regimes.

Critical Aerospace Metals Still Face Tariff Exposure

Critical aerospace metals remain exposed through existing Section 301 and Section 232 measures. Section 301 tariffs of 25pc on various materials used in aircraft and associated parts still apply. This keeps cost pressure on parts of the aerospace materials chain even after the civil aircraft carve-out.

Annex II also maintains exemptions for several critical materials, including titanium, cobalt, chromium, rhenium, nickel, tantalum, tungsten, and niobium. These materials are essential for aircraft engines, high-temperature alloys, fasteners, structural components, landing systems, and other demanding aerospace applications.

Hafnium stands out because it is not included in annex II and is therefore subject to the new tariff. That is strategically relevant because hafnium is used in high-temperature and advanced alloy applications, including aerospace and defence-related supply chains. The omission shows how narrow tariff classifications can create unexpected cost exposure for small but critical materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects final aerospace trade, but it does not fully protect the metals value chain behind it. The real risk now sits in the gap between tariff-exempt aircraft parts and tariff-exposed specialty materials.

Elmet and Taniobis Partner to Strengthen North American Niobium and Tantalum Alloy Supply

Elmet Niobium

Strategic Alliance to Bolster Aerospace and Defense Supply Chains

Elmet Technologies and Taniobis have entered a long-term partnership to enhance North American supply lines of niobium- and tantalum-based alloys essential to aerospace and defense industries. The collaboration will initially focus on producing and marketing C-103 and FS-85 alloys, primarily in powder form, with potential expansion into Taniobis’ AMtrinsic product line.

The deal provides US-based Elmet with an opportunity to broaden its product portfolio beyond molybdenum and tungsten, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities, including an extrusion press in Coldwater, Michigan. Germany-based Taniobis gains access to Elmet’s North American distribution network and technical expertise, ensuring faster delivery and greater production flexibility for regional customers.

Alloy Applications and Market Potential

C-103, composed of 89% niobium, 10% hafnium, and 1% titanium, is highly valued for maintaining strength at extreme temperatures. It is widely used in hypersonic missile components, rocket nozzles, and jet engine afterburners. FS-85, consisting of 61% niobium, 28% tantalum, 10% tungsten, and 1% zirconium, offers similar mechanical performance at a lower cost by omitting hafnium.

However, FS-85 adoption faces hurdles due to its heavier weight and aerospace customers’ preference for proven materials. Elmet highlights FS-85’s higher ultimate tensile strength compared to C-103, positioning it as a potential alternative in cost-sensitive applications.

Outlook for Advanced Alloy Supply Security

The partnership underscores the importance of diversifying alloy supply sources in North America amid rising geopolitical pressures on critical minerals. Niobium and tantalum are both considered strategic materials due to their scarcity, high performance, and reliance on limited global production sources.

With aerospace and defense demand expected to rise, the Elmet–Taniobis alliance could play a pivotal role in mitigating supply chain risks and advancing domestic manufacturing capabilities for high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership aligns with broader efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for strategic industries. If FS-85 gains traction, it could reshape alloy procurement strategies in aerospace and defense, offering a cost-effective alternative to established high-performance materials.

High-temperature metals and nickel rally reshape global superalloy cost structure

High-temperature metals

Surging demand and constrained supply mean the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is fundamentally reshaping superalloy cost structures. Aircraft engine and industrial gas turbine manufacturers are ordering at record levels just as key refractory metals move sharply higher. As a result, the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is squeezing melters that sit between volatile raw material markets and long-dated OEM contracts.

Rhenium-led cost shock hits second-generation superalloys

Rhenium has become the epicentre of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally despite representing only a small share of alloy weight. Intrinsic values for benchmark single-crystal alloys such as Rene N5 and CMSX-4 have jumped by more than 80pc in a year. This surge reflects rhenium’s critical role in creep strength and fatigue resistance in high-pressure turbine blades. However, rhenium remains a by-product of molybdenum from copper operations, which severely limits flexible supply. Other key elements such as tantalum and hafnium have also rallied, yet their relative contribution to alloy cost is still overshadowed by rhenium in second-generation chemistries.

Producers now face a difficult trade-off between performance and affordability as the high-temperature metals and nickel rally reopens the debate over alloy design. Second-generation alloys with roughly 3pc rhenium, including Rene N5 and CMSX-4, remain the market workhorses because they balance durability with cost. Meanwhile, third-generation alloys with higher rhenium contents remain less widely adopted, as OEMs hesitate to qualify materials whose economics depend on extreme minor-metal prices.

Tight turbine capacity, nickel rally and scrap strategy

Industrial gas turbine demand is amplifying the impact of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally on alloy buyers. MAR-M 247, a key alloy for IGT blisk castings, has seen calculated costs climb alongside hafnium and other minor metals. Lead times for major OEMs such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reportedly stretch to around seven years. Commercial aircraft backlogs exceed a decade of production, leaving melt shops reluctant to miss their place in already strained queues.

Nickel’s rally adds a second layer of inflation even in lower rhenium or rhenium-free alloys. Benchmark nickel prices have jumped around 25pc since mid-December, supported by investor flows and policy risk premiums despite an oversupplied refined market. Nickel-based alloys only account for roughly 6pc of nickel demand, yet the price spike is clearly visible in less temperature-critical grades such as Inconel 718. Intrinsic values for Inconel 718 have risen on the back of nickel and niobium, lifting input costs for rings, casings and sheet parts across aerospace and energy applications.

To defend margins, melters are pushing scrap-based strategies as far as OEM specifications allow. High revert utilisation, sometimes up to 70pc of a melt, can partially shield producers from spot price volatility in primary metals. However, strict quality standards often restrict the use of externally sourced scrap, with some OEMs mandating internal revert only. Many melt shops therefore work “hand-to-mouth”, hesitant to lock in long-term tonnages at record prices while suppliers worry about replacing committed units in tightening markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The high-temperature metals and nickel rally is exposing how concentrated and opaque minor-metal supply chains remain, particularly for rhenium and tungsten. For investors and OEMs, the key strategic levers will be higher scrap utilisation, deeper recycling partnerships and more flexible alloy qualification pathways. Those who move fastest on revert, substitution and long-term offtakes will be best placed to secure turbine-grade material through the next decade of aerospace and power-generation growth.

ASM expands rare earth metal sales amid new magnet deals and Dubbo capex cut

ASM(Australian Strategic Materials)

ASM expands rare earth metal sales with larger NdFeB and NdPr allocations across key markets. The move reinforces supply chain diversification for magnets. Therefore, ASM expands rare earth metal sales while building momentum for upstream integration.

New sales with Noveon, VAC and Neo

ASM agreed 22.2t of NdFeB metal sales in April–June. It will supply 15t to Noveon Magnetics and 7.2t to VAC. Shipments began with 1.2t to Noveon and 1.2t to VAC in June. Remaining volumes deliver through the second half of 2025.

ASM sold 10t of NdPr metal to Neo in July. Cumulative NdPr sales to Neo reached 29t. It also sold 2kg of dysprosium and 2kg of terbium. Meanwhile, the partners are pursuing tolling deals for NdPr, Dy, and Tb.

These contracts expand non-Chinese magnet supply options. They support Western magnet manufacturing and defense applications. As a result, ASM expands rare earth metal sales into priority geographies. The Korean Metals Plant anchors NdFeB alloy output and metallisation capacity.

Dubbo capex cut strengthens upstream integration

ASM cut Dubbo’s forecast capex by A$900mn to A$740mn. The updated scoping study revised flowsheets for cost and efficiency. The company plans to feed its Korean Metals Plant from Dubbo. It will add titanium, zirconium, hafnium, and niobium products.

Government agencies in the US, Australia, and Canada signalled financing interest. Therefore, Dubbo could accelerate downstream diversification and offset market volatility. Together with current contracts, the platform underpins long-term magnet security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ASM is stitching together a credible mine-to-metal pathway. The Dubbo reset lowers capital intensity as offtake widens. Watch execution at the Korean Metals Plant and the pace of tolling agreements.

ATI Tariff Impact 2025 Expected to Be Minimal as Aerospace Demand and Supply Strategies Offset Risks

ATI

Flexible sourcing, defense exemptions, and surcharges help ATI maintain 2025 earnings guidance

Aerospace and jet engine orders drive resilience despite raw material tariffs on nickel, vanadium, and zirconium

ATI tariff impact 2025 is expected to be limited, as the specialty alloys producer forecasts only a $50 million pre-mitigation earnings hit from recent U.S. trade measures. Despite the new tariffs, the Texas-based firm has reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, leveraging a combination of duty drawbacks, defense exemptions, and pass-through pricing clauses to insulate operations.

Strategic tools and flexible sourcing preserve profitability under new trade conditions

ATI noted that surcharge mechanisms on new orders, effective April 7, and selective tariff exclusions for aerospace-related inputs are already helping to preserve income and control exposure. Key exemptions were granted for materials critical to defense, although nickel scrap, hafnium, vanadium, molybdenum, and zirconium remain tariffed. While some industrial customers have slowed purchases amid uncertainty, ATI’s core aerospace and defense segments remain solid.

Notably, aerospace and defense represent 66% of ATI’s total business. The company is the exclusive source for five of seven nickel-based alloys used in jet engine hot sections and is a top forger of rotating components. As a result, full-year jet engine sales are projected to grow 15–20%, with Q1 sales up 35% to $421 million.

Titanium contracts and capacity expansion support long-term aerospace growth

Though titanium-heavy airframe sales rose modestly by 8.2% due to OEM inventory drawdowns, ATI secured a new five-year, $1 billion supply deal with Airbus for flat-rolled titanium products. The company is also qualifying premium-grade titanium from its new electron beam (EB) furnace in Richland, Washington, targeting critical aerospace applications.

For Q1, ATI reported a 47% profit increase, reaching $97 million, with revenue climbing nearly 10% to over $1.1 billion. These results affirm ATI’s ability to navigate short-term tariff turbulence while capitalizing on long-term demand trends.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ATI tariff impact 2025 story underscores the value of vertical integration, contract structure, and defense-linked exemptions in managing geopolitical trade risks. ATI’s proactive pricing and sourcing strategy may set a precedent for specialty metals producers facing future tariff regimes.

China Strategic Minerals Framework Tightens State Control Over 36 Resources

Strategic Minerals

China strategic minerals policy has entered a more formal phase after Beijing placed 36 mineral resources under tighter central government control. The revised regulations strengthen state oversight of mining, exploration, production quotas and strategic reserves.

China strategic minerals covered by the framework include major industrial metals, battery materials, rare earths, semiconductor metals and energy resources. The rules also include non-metallic materials such as graphite, phosphate, fluorite and high-purity quartz.

China strategic minerals regulation is significant because many of the affected materials are essential to batteries, aerospace, defence, semiconductors, energy infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

The immediate market impact has been limited because several controls already existed in practice. However, formalising them under a single legal framework could strengthen Beijing's ability to manage supply over the longer term.

Centralised Quotas and Reserves Strengthen Supply Management

The Ministry of Natural Resources, working with the National Development and Reform Commission, will set annual mining quotas for strategic minerals.

The objective is to prevent uncontrolled production while giving central authorities greater control over national resource development.

Approvals for new exploration and mining rights will also be consolidated at the central level. Authorities will restrict the number of mining licences granted for individual deposits.

This could slow uncontrolled capacity growth in some markets while giving Beijing more influence over production timing and regional development.

The new framework also establishes a three-tier reserve system covering physical product inventories, production capacity and undeveloped resource sites.

State and private companies will jointly participate in stockpiling, while resource-site reserves are expected to remain available for at least five years.

This creates a broader security mechanism than conventional commodity stockpiles. China will not only hold material inventories but also preserve future production capability and undeveloped resources.

For strategically sensitive metals, this could provide Beijing with greater flexibility to respond to supply disruptions, price volatility or geopolitical pressure.

Rare Earths and Semiconductor Metals Gain Greater Strategic Weight

The list covers 25 metallic commodities, including iron, copper, aluminium, titanium, vanadium, manganese and chromium.

Battery materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are included alongside all 17 rare earth elements.

China has also designated tungsten, antimony, tin and molybdenum as strategic resources, together with semiconductor and specialty metals including gallium, germanium, indium, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, beryllium, zirconium and hafnium.

This combination is important because China already holds dominant positions across many of these supply chains.

Rare earth separation, tungsten processing, antimony, gallium and germanium are particularly sensitive because alternative global processing capacity remains limited.

The inclusion of high-purity quartz also highlights the expanding definition of strategic materials. Quartz is an important input in semiconductor and solar manufacturing, linking mineral security directly with advanced technology industries.

The framework therefore goes beyond mining policy. It strengthens China's ability to manage the upstream materials required for manufacturing competitiveness and national security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is moving from individual export controls and quotas toward a comprehensive strategic resources system. The long-term implication is greater state influence over not only current supply, but also future capacity and undeveloped reserves across many of the world's most critical materials.

Victory Metals Produces Gallium at North Stanmore Rare Earth Project

Victory Metals

Australia Sees First Gallium Output from Rare Earth Carbonates

Victory Metals has produced gallium-bearing rare earth carbonates at its North Stanmore project in Western Australia. This marks the first reported gallium production by an Australian rare earth company, based on 57 mineral sample locations. The resulting carbonate samples contain 38 g/t of gallium, offering new potential in the country's critical minerals strategy. Victory’s efforts underscore Australia's growing role in supplying strategic materials for high-tech and green energy sectors.

Project Remains in Scoping Stage with Broader Rare Earth Goals

Despite this milestone, North Stanmore remains in the pre-production phase, according to a scoping study released on March 12. The report outlines plans to produce over 59,000t of rare earth carbonates and more than 3,000t of scandium and hafnium oxides.

Gallium recovery is not yet included in operational scenarios but could be reconsidered in later phases of development. Meanwhile, other Australian firms such as Axel REE are also exploring gallium production, signaling industry-wide momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Victory’s gallium output marks a pivotal development in Australia’s push for critical mineral independence. With global gallium markets dominated by China, even small domestic breakthroughs could have significant geopolitical impact. The North Stanmore project may emerge as a model for diversified rare earth production in the Western Hemisphere.

China's Titanium Sponge Production to See Significant Expansion Amid Demand Growth

China's Titanium Sponge

China's titanium sponge production capacity is set to experience a major boost, potentially reaching between 300,000 and 500,000 tonnes per year over the next three to five years, according to An Zhongsheng, secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's titanium zirconium and hafnium branch (CNIA-Ti). This expansion is expected to be driven by increased demand across various sectors including aerospace, marine engineering, chemical production, computer, communication and consumer electronics (3C), daily necessities, and air conditioning, as reported at the China and CIS Titanium Industry Development Forum held in Xi'an, Shaanxi province.

Global civil aviation demand, recovering from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, has put strain on aviation-grade titanium sponge supplies. An emphasized that while the aerospace industry is recovering, industrial sectors are propelling China's titanium market with consistent growth in recent years.

Currently, China's titanium sponge production capacity hovers around 300,000 tonnes per year. In the broader market, titanium's growing use in civilian products is anticipated to be a significant growth catalyst for the Chinese titanium industry.

Although global demand for titanium in the medical industry has surged, Chinese demand in this sector has been hampered by healthcare reforms promoting the use of cost-effective materials. Despite this, prices for titanium sponge are projected to remain relatively stable, enhancing its appeal across a range of applications. An Zhongsheng reassured industry stakeholders that China’s domestic supply of titanium sponge will meet future demands due to planned capacity expansions.

The anticipated rapid growth in titanium sponge production marks a transition for titanium from a rare metal to a more commonly used material, according to An. In the first half of this year, China produced 123,500 tonnes of titanium sponge, according to CNIA-Ti data.

Nevertheless, China continues to rely on imports for approximately 35-40% of its titanium ores and concentrates, reflecting its position in the global supply chain. Last year, global production of titanium ore and concentrate amounted to 8.75 million tonnes (t) of titanium dioxide equivalent, with China contributing 37%, followed by Mozambique (18%), South Africa (11%), and Canada (6%).

In the realm of titanium dioxide production, China led with 55% of global output in 2023, maintaining growth through domestic capacity expansions. Additionally, the world's titanium sponge production rose by 29% to 347,000 tonnes in 2023, with China’s output surging from a 25% share in 2022 to a dominant 63%. Russia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia also witnessed increases in their titanium sponge output, while Ukraine reported zero production.

For titanium mill products, global production in 2023 reached 248,000 tonnes, with China accounting for a commanding 64%, trailed by the United States (14%), Russia (13%), Japan (6%), and Europe (3%).

Niobium Alloys for Space and Defense: Taniobis Sees Rising Demand

Taniobis

Niobium alloys for space and defense are entering a pivotal phase. Niobium alloys for space and defense now answer tougher thermal and mechanical requirements. As a result, niobium alloys for space and defense stand out across propulsion and protective systems.

Additive manufacturing unlocks complex niobium components

Taniobis says space and defense programs want materials that endure extreme heat and stress. The firm highlights growing use in reaction control and attitude thrusters.

Meanwhile, additive manufacturing now produces intricate parts directly from digital models. C-103 leads current adoption, with 89pc niobium, 10pc hafnium, and 1pc titanium. Engineers value C-103 for hot-gas exposure and repeated thermal cycling. However, programs still evaluate alternatives for higher temperature margins.

Pricing, alloy choices, and performance trade-offs

Columbite prices support the trend, rising with alloy demand. First-half averages reached $20.13/lb cif main airport. That level sits 31pc above the five-year average of $15.37/lb. Tight supply from central Africa also lifts pricing. Taniobis notes additional niobium options for harsh environments. FS-85 blends 61pc niobium, 28pc tantalum, 10pc tungsten, and 1pc zirconium. Cb-752 combines niobium with tungsten and zirconium. Both alloys suit additive routes and high heat flux zones. They withstand temperatures beyond nickel superalloys, which plateau near 1,050°C. Even so, FS-85 faces weight penalties versus C-103. Therefore, teams hesitate to shift away from a proven workhorse.

Clear use cases continue to expand across space systems. Thermal protection tiles and hot structures benefit from niobium alloys. Propulsion chambers and nozzle throats also gain durability and life. Program managers now balance mass, cost, and printability. They also weigh powder availability and qualification timelines. Taniobis expects more flight hardware as printing scales. Qualification depth will decide the pace of fleet adoption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Niobium’s high-temperature window aligns with next-gen propulsion and hypersonic needs. Additive manufacturing lowers entry costs and speeds iteration. If columbite supply remains tight, buyers may diversify sources or lock multi-year contracts to manage risk.

Strong Fundamentals to Support Niobium Columbite Prices in 2025

Columbite

The niobium columbite market has witnessed steady price growth over the past two years, driven by rising demand from the aerospace and defense sectors and supply constraints in Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While firm fundamentals are expected to support prices in 2025, further increases may face resistance from smelters shifting to ferro-niobium as a cost-effective alternative.

Aerospace and Defense Demand Driving Niobium Prices

Niobium plays a critical role in high-temperature alloys used in jet engines, hypersonic missiles, and satellite components, making it essential for the aerospace and defense industries.

• Global military spending surged to $2.4 trillion in 2023, a 6.8% increase from 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

• Geopolitical tensions—including Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Red Sea, and China’s increased military drills around Taiwan—have fueled higher defense budgets worldwide, supporting demand for niobium-based alloys.

One of the key niobium alloys, C-103, is composed of 89% niobium, 10% hafnium, and 1% titanium and is crucial in hypersonic missile technology, jet engine afterburners, and space applications. The US Department of Defense recently awarded a $26.4 million grant to Global Advanced Metals under the Defense Production Act program to boost high-purity niobium oxide production at its Pennsylvania plant, further reinforcing long-term demand.

Supply Constraints in Brazil and the DRC Impacting Columbite Prices

While demand-side factors have bolstered niobium prices, supply disruptions have also played a crucial role in the market’s upward trajectory.

• Brazilian niobium columbite supply tightened following President Lula da Silva’s crackdown on illegal mining in the Amazon. Although the primary focus has been on gold and zinc mining, industry participants have reported higher niobium columbite prices and supply disruptions since Lula’s election in 2022.

• Conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to reduced tantalite supply, which is a valuable alternative source of niobium for Chinese smelters. With tantalite shortages driving up prices, niobium concentrates have become even more expensive, exacerbating supply concerns.

As a result of these factors, columbite prices averaged $18.20/lb CIF main ports in 2024, significantly higher than the five-year average of $14.50/lb.

Price Outlook and Smelter Substitution Risk

While market fundamentals remain bullish, further niobium columbite price increases may face resistance as smelters consider switching to ferro-niobium to reduce costs. Historically, when columbite prices exceed $18/lb, Chinese smelters have shifted to ferro-niobium, capping price gains beyond that level. This pattern suggests that while prices are likely to remain firm in 2025, further spikes may be short-lived if substitution pressures increase.

Conclusion

With rising global defense spending, growing aerospace applications, and constrained supply from key producers, the niobium columbite market is well-positioned for continued price support in 2025. However, potential price resistance from Chinese smelters switching to ferro-niobium could limit further upside movement. As geopolitical tensions persist and global demand for high-performance alloys rises, niobium remains a critical material to watch in the strategic metals market.

Titanium Exempted from US Tariffs: Aerospace Industry Impact Remains Unclear

Titanium

New US Tariff Exemptions for Titanium Could Affect the Aerospace Supply Chain

On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on several foreign imports, including an exemption for titanium, titanium scrap, and ferro-titanium. While the exemption helps protect titanium trade, the broader implications for the aerospace industry remain uncertain.

Titanium Exemption and Its Effects

The US tariffs announced include a list of exemptions, with titanium in its various forms being spared. However, other metals like hafnium, molybdenum, vanadium, nickel scrap, and aluminum scrap were not exempted. The new tariff scheme does not affect pre-existing duties on Chinese titanium products, including a 20% duty on titanium products from China, which has been in place since March 4, 2025. Despite the exemption for certain forms of titanium, Chinese titanium sponge imports will still be subject to a 60% duty, which remains unchanged.

Additionally, imports of unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia will still face a 15% tariff, though efforts to remove this tariff for sponge imports are underway. For US titanium scrap imports, particularly from the EU and UK, which make up over half of the US intake, the tariff exemption is crucial. Without it, US scrap dealers, processors, and consumers would face substantial challenges, as the US does not produce enough vacuum-grade titanium scrap domestically to meet demand.

Aerospace Industry and Supply Chain Impact

While the titanium exemption provides relief for many manufacturers, the broader impact of the tariffs on the aerospace industry is still unclear. Aerospace manufacturers are uncertain about the tariff's effects on finished parts, components, and engines, particularly regarding supply chains that involve cross-border production of engine parts like the Leap-1A and Leap-1B engines for the A320neo and Boeing 737 Max.

Canada and Mexico were excluded from the new US tariffs, alleviating concerns for companies like Bombardier, Airbus, RTX, and Heroux-Devtek, which operate in those regions. Still, some titanium producers believe the situation could change rapidly, as it is difficult to define the boundaries between parts made from titanium and assembled components that use other materials, such as nickel-based alloys or aluminum.

China’s 34% Tariff on US Exports

In response to US tariffs, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, which will affect titanium imports from the US. Despite importing limited amounts of titanium from the US, China still relies on US imports for critical aerospace components, including parts for its C919 aircraft. The C919 uses the CFM Leap-1C engine, which is assembled in both the US and France.