Kety Aluminium Extrusion Volumes Rise as Feedstock Volatility Clouds Outlook

Kety Aluminium

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes rose in the first quarter as the Polish aluminium extruder benefited from stronger sales, high plant utilisation and improved margins. Grupa Kety sold 27,200t of extruded products in January-March, up 7% from a year earlier.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes were supported by 85% capacity utilisation at the company’s extrusion plant. The result showed solid demand for extruded products despite rising aluminium prices and growing uncertainty across European supply chains.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes also helped lift profitability. Net profit rose by 20% on the year to 145mn zlotys, supported by stronger margins across its business divisions, including extruded products and aluminium construction systems.

However, the company is cautious about the rest of 2026. The US-Israel and Iran war has driven aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs higher, creating longer-term margin and demand risks.

Rising Billet Premiums Support Short-Term Margins

Kety has benefited in the short term from rising feedstock prices. The company was able to pass higher aluminium costs to customers while processing material from its own inventories.

This timing supported margins in the first quarter. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen by around 15% since the start of the Middle East war, while European aluminium billet premiums have more than doubled.

For an extruder holding inventory, a rising feedstock market can create temporary earnings support. Material purchased earlier at lower prices can be processed and sold into a higher-price environment.

Kety expects its extrusion plant utilisation to remain strong in the second quarter. This suggests that order flows have not yet weakened sharply despite higher input costs.

However, the benefit is unlikely to last indefinitely. If aluminium prices and billet premiums remain elevated, customers may resist further increases or delay orders.

This is the key risk for European extruders. Higher input prices can lift revenues in the short term, but they can also weaken downstream demand if construction, transport, industrial and consumer goods customers face margin pressure.

Feedstock Security and Cost Inflation Shape 2026 Risk

Kety said its feedstock supplies have been only slightly affected since the start of the Iran war. The company needed to diversify sources for small quantities, but it has not reported major supply disruption.

The company maintains around four to six weeks of feedstock needs in inventory. It also contracts new supplies within a two-month horizon, giving it some flexibility but not full insulation from market volatility.

Kety produces about half of the billet it needs for its extrusion operations. Its own scrap accounts for about 75% of the feedstock used in billet production.

This partial integration gives Kety a useful buffer. Internal billet production and scrap use reduce dependence on external billet markets, where premiums have surged.

Still, the company warned that continued increases in aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs could weigh on performance later in 2026.

Chief executive Roman Przybylski said a short-term aluminium price surge may help earnings, but longer-term increases are worrying. He warned that higher costs could contribute to prolonged stagflation when governments have limited room to stimulate markets after heavy Covid-19 spending.

For European aluminium processors, the issue is becoming structural. Supply disruption, higher energy-linked costs, billet premium inflation and weaker macroeconomic conditions can all squeeze margins at the same time.

Kety’s first-quarter performance was strong, but its outlook shows how quickly favourable inventory timing can turn into cost pressure if feedstock inflation persists.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kety’s results show how aluminium processors can benefit briefly from rising feedstock prices when inventories are well managed. The strategic risk is that sustained billet premium inflation could weaken downstream demand and turn short-term margin support into a longer-term volume problem.

Ucore Rare Earth Supply Partnership Expands With Sumitomo

Ucore Rare Earth

Ucore rare earth supply strategy is gaining a major commercial partner after Ucore Rare Metals formed a strategic collaboration with Sumitomo Corporation of Americas. The agreement will support feedstock procurement, separated rare earth sales and market access in Japan.

Ucore rare earth supply development will center on the planned Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex, where the company intends to process rare earth feedstock into separated products. Sumitomo will help secure suitable raw materials and develop offtake channels.

Ucore rare earth supply plans are particularly focused on selected middle and heavy rare earth elements used in high-performance permanent magnets and advanced materials. These elements remain among the most strategically constrained parts of the global rare earth supply chain.

The partnership also strengthens links between North American processing and Japanese industrial demand while preserving material for additional processing in the US and allied markets.

Sumitomo Adds Feedstock and Japanese Market Access

Sumitomo will act as a distribution partner for designated separated rare earth products sold into selected Japanese customer segments and other industrial applications.

This gives Ucore access to an established trading network with experience across rare earth procurement, distribution and downstream customer relationships.

The collaboration is significant because building separation capacity alone does not guarantee commercial success. Rare earth refiners need reliable feedstock on the upstream side and qualified buyers for separated oxides on the downstream side.

Sumitomo already has experience building such supply chains. The company became the exclusive distributor of neodymium-praseodymium oxide produced by MP Materials in 2023.

It also established Summit Atom Rare Earth Company in Kazakhstan to produce rare earth materials containing dysprosium and neodymium.

That platform now connects African feedstock, Kazakh processing and Japanese technology through relationships with Lindian Resources and Shin-Etsu Chemical.

For Ucore, Sumitomo therefore brings more than distribution capability. It brings an existing international network spanning mining, separation and magnet-related markets.

Heavy Rare Earths Strengthen Allied Supply Chain Strategy

The partnership's focus on middle and heavy rare earths is strategically important because these materials remain highly concentrated in Chinese supply chains.

Dysprosium and other heavy rare earths are critical for permanent magnets that must maintain performance at elevated temperatures. They are widely used in electric vehicles, defence systems, aerospace and advanced industrial equipment.

Ucore's Louisiana facility is intended to provide an alternative separation route for these materials in North America.

Securing feedstock from multiple jurisdictions will be essential. A processing facility without diversified raw material supply can simply replace one dependency with another.

The Sumitomo partnership addresses that risk by combining sourcing, processing and offtake development across allied markets.

It also reflects a broader shift in rare earth strategy. Governments and companies are increasingly building interconnected supply chains across the US, Japan, Australia, Africa and Central Asia rather than relying on individual national projects.

If Ucore successfully commissions the Louisiana complex, Sumitomo's commercial network could help accelerate customer qualification and reduce market-entry risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rare earth security increasingly depends on linking mines, separation plants and customers across multiple allied countries. Ucore's partnership with Sumitomo is strategically valuable because it addresses both sides of the processing bottleneck: feedstock supply and downstream market access.

China’s Gallium Expansion Slows as Germanium Supply Diversifies: Key Market Insights

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA)

The Chinese gallium (Ga) production expansion has encountered significant hurdles, while germanium (Ge) supply sources are increasingly diversifying to mitigate feedstock shortages. According to Li Yilan, a senior analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), the pace of new gallium production projects in China has slowed due to decreasing Ga content in bauxite, the primary feedstock for gallium extraction. As a result, many production projects have been delayed, and some that did launch have scaled back or halted operations altogether. However, the diversification of germanium supply chains signals a shift in how the industry is adapting to global demand pressures.

Slowdown in Gallium Production Expansion

China’s gallium output for 2024 is forecast to reach 950 tons, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, the growth rate of gallium production capacity has slowed considerably. In particular, China’s gallium capacity rose by 40% this year, but the full realization of this capacity has been hindered by difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock from bauxite. The lower Ga content in bauxite has made it harder for producers to maintain a consistent supply of gallium, forcing many projects to delay their timelines or reduce output.

The demand for gallium, particularly from the magnet manufacturing sector (which consumes 46% of the metal), has increased gradually over the past two years. Additionally, the rise in demand for gallium oxide phosphor in electronics has offset the reduced demand from the solar cell sector. This demand shift has been a key factor in the slight increase in Chinese gallium exports, which rose by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 48.4 tons. This increase is partly due to disruptions in last year’s exports caused by the country’s export control schemes, which limited overseas shipments.

Germanium Supply Diversification and Emerging Markets

While gallium production faces slowdowns, germanium’s supply chain is showing signs of diversification, especially as producers look beyond China for feedstock. Tight feedstock availability in China has prompted several producers to seek alternative sources for germanium. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines, has begun exporting germanium concentrates to Belgium. This move is part of a broader trend of extracting germanium from non-traditional sources, such as copper-cobalt ores in the Congo and coal and nickel in Indonesia. These new extraction routes are expected to increase the overall supply of germanium.

China’s germanium output is projected to exceed 200 tons in 2024, up from 190 tons the previous year. Strong demand from the infrared and solar cell sectors, which use germanium in various applications, has driven prices upward in recent months. However, the rapid rise in prices has caused a significant drop in exports. Between January and September 2024, China exported just 18.8 tons of germanium, a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Higher prices and more stringent export license procedures have pushed international buyers to explore other sources for germanium, further boosting the trend toward diversified supply.

Conclusion

The global markets for gallium and germanium are undergoing significant shifts, with production challenges in China affecting gallium’s expansion and leading to a diversification of germanium supply chains. While gallium demand remains steady, especially from magnet and phosphor industries, production issues are slowing the pace of growth. On the other hand, germanium's increasing extraction from countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia is easing the reliance on Chinese supply. The metal markets are adapting, and these dynamics will likely continue to influence pricing and production trends in the coming years.

CFC Recycling Tennessee Expansion Adds Gallatin Scrapyard and Nonferrous Feedstock

CFC Recycling

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion has advanced with the acquisition of Goolsby & Sons Recycling, giving the company a third scrapyard in the state. The deal strengthens CFC’s regional collection network and adds a new feedstock source for its nonferrous shredder.

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion now links the company’s existing scrapyards in Tullahoma and McMinnville with a new site in Gallatin. The acquired location will be temporarily closed for upgrades before reopening in June.

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion is significant because scrap processors are increasingly competing for reliable regional feedstock. Control over collection points, yard infrastructure and processing routes can determine margins in both ferrous and nonferrous recycling.

Financial details of the acquisition were not disclosed. CFC plans a soft opening on 18 May before fully reopening the Gallatin location in June.

Gallatin Yard Strengthens Regional Scrap Collection

The Goolsby & Sons site gives CFC another physical intake point for scrap in Tennessee. That matters because scrapyard density improves access to local industrial, demolition, commercial and consumer scrap flows.

CFC plans to renovate buildings and equipment at the Gallatin site. It also plans to concrete surfaces, improving yard handling, environmental control and operating efficiency.

These upgrades are practical but important. Better surfaces can reduce contamination, improve traffic flow, support cleaner material handling and help meet customer and regulatory expectations.

The acquisition also gives CFC a stronger footprint in a state with active manufacturing, construction and industrial activity. Regional scrap generation can support steady flows of steel, stainless steel, aluminium and other nonferrous materials.

For smaller recycling networks, yard expansion can create scale advantages. More sites improve sourcing reach, while centralised processing can lift equipment utilisation.

Nonferrous Shredder Feedstock Becomes Strategic

The deal adds a new feedstock source for CFC’s nonferrous shredder. The company operates a 3Tek Bravo 6280 hammer mill shredder used to process stainless steel and aluminium specialty items.

That detail is commercially important. Nonferrous scrap processing can carry higher value than ordinary ferrous scrap when material is sorted, upgraded and delivered into qualified downstream channels.

Aluminium specialty scrap is especially relevant because secondary aluminium demand is growing across automotive, packaging, construction and industrial markets. Processors with better collection and shredding capacity can capture more value from complex scrap streams.

Stainless steel scrap also remains valuable because of its nickel, chromium and molybdenum content. Efficient shredding and separation can improve recoveries and support alloy producers seeking recycled feedstock.

CFC’s acquisition therefore fits a wider industry trend. Scrap companies are not only buying yards for volume. They are building feedstock networks around specific processing equipment and higher-value material streams.

The Gallatin site should help CFC improve sourcing flexibility. Once renovated, it can support local intake while feeding the company’s broader processing platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CFC’s acquisition shows that regional scrap control is becoming more strategic as recyclers chase cleaner and higher-value feedstock. The real value of the Gallatin yard will depend on how effectively CFC channels material into its stainless and aluminium specialty shredding operations.

Nickel Ore Prices Fall as Philippine Supply Recovery Eases Feedstock Tightness

Philippine Nickel ore

Nickel ore prices have fallen as Philippine supply recovered after the monsoon season, while a correction in London Metal Exchange nickel weakened sentiment across the value chain. The decline shows how quickly seasonal ore flows can pressure feedstock markets when Indonesian buyers slow procurement.

Nickel ore prices for 1.3% grade material on a cif China basis dropped to 55-57 yuan/wmt on 14 May from 65-66 yuan/wmt on 26 March. The fall came even though LME nickel remained above late-March levels after briefly touching almost two-year highs earlier in May.

Nickel ore prices are important because ore often gives the earliest physical signal in the nickel chain. Unlike LME nickel, ore prices are less driven by financial flows and more directly tied to mine supply, port congestion, smelter demand and buyer inventories.

The current weakness reflects three forces moving together: Philippine mine supply is recovering, Indonesia is slowing purchases, and LME nickel has corrected after earlier policy-driven gains.

Philippine Supply Recovery Changes the Regional Ore Balance

The Philippines is entering its seasonal production recovery after monsoon-related disruptions. Mining activity in Surigao, the country’s main nickel ore hub, usually slows from November to March and rebounds from May.

Surigao accounts for around half of Philippine nickel ore output. As shipments recover, buyers have more nearby feedstock options, reducing the urgency that supported prices earlier in the year.

This seasonal pattern has become more important since Indonesia emerged as a major Philippine ore importer. Historically, Chinese buyers stocked up ahead of the rainy season and drew down inventories until supply returned. But Indonesia’s rising demand has added a second major pull on Philippine material.

The Philippines exported 55.22mn t of nickel ore in 2025. China took 72% of that volume, while Indonesia accounted for 18%.

Indonesia’s imports from the Philippines rose to 15.48mn t in 2025 from 9.55mn t in 2024. That growth was driven by tight domestic ore controls under Indonesia’s RKAB quota system.

Indonesia imported 1.41mn t of Philippine nickel ore in March, up sharply from both a year earlier and the previous month. But that buying momentum has now slowed as port bottlenecks and price uncertainty weigh on procurement.

Indonesia Bottlenecks and NPI Margins Pressure Demand

Most Philippine ore shipped to Indonesia moves to the Weda Bay industrial park. The site produced around one third of Indonesia’s total nickel supply in 2025, making it a major feedstock demand centre.

But Weda Bay has limited unloading capacity. Only two major berths handle nickel ore discharge, creating recurring congestion.

Some vessels that would normally unload within two days are waiting up to two weeks. That congestion reduces buyers’ willingness to secure additional cargoes, especially when prices are falling.

Indonesia’s revised ore pricing formula has also changed buyer behaviour. The new formula includes cobalt, iron and chromium values, raising raw material costs and adding uncertainty to procurement decisions.

Meanwhile, LME nickel’s pullback has started to pressure nickel pig iron prices. NPI prices had been relatively steady, supported by stainless steel demand, but softer benchmark prices are now weakening producer margins.

Lower margins can reduce production incentives for Chinese NPI producers. That, in turn, may reduce demand for nickel ore and extend downward pressure on feedstock prices.

Nickel sulphate prices have remained stable because tight supply has offset weak demand from the nickel-cobalt-manganese battery sector. But the ore market is moving faster because supply is returning and buyers are stepping back.

The short-term outlook remains soft. Rising Philippine availability, weaker LME sentiment and slower Indonesian buying are likely to keep nickel ore under pressure until the market finds a new floor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel ore prices are showing that Indonesia’s downstream expansion has made Philippine supply more strategically important. But when port bottlenecks, weaker NPI margins and seasonal supply recovery hit together, even tight Indonesian ore controls cannot prevent a feedstock correction.

Yunnan Germanium Recycling Project Targets Feedstock Security for Strategic Metal Supply

Germanium Scrap

Yunnan Germanium recycling project plans will strengthen China’s largest germanium producer’s control over feedstock as demand from downstream high-end manufacturing remains strategically important. The company plans to invest 200.66mn yuan in a fully automated facility to process germanium-bearing waste slag.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project will have capacity to process 150,000 t/yr of germanium-bearing waste slag. The company has not disclosed the construction timetable or launch date.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project is designed to improve germanium resource utilisation and support raw material supply for downstream deep-processing products. This matters because germanium is a strategic minor metal used in defence, infrared optics, fibre optics, semiconductors and high-performance electronics.

The project also reflects a broader industry shift. Producers of critical and minor metals are increasingly trying to secure secondary feedstock as primary supply becomes more politically controlled and price volatility rises.

Recycling Capacity Reduces Dependence on External Raw Materials

Yunnan Germanium said partial reliance on externally sourced raw materials exposes it to germanium price volatility. Prices are influenced by global supply-demand conditions and demand from high-end manufacturing sectors.

The new recycling line should help reduce that exposure. By processing waste slag, the company can recover more germanium units from secondary material and support its downstream production chain.

This is strategically important because Yunnan Germanium already consumes significant germanium internally. In 2025, the company produced 29.7t of raw-material-grade germanium metal equivalent for external sales, excluding 68.95t used for internal consumption and third-party processing.

That internal use shows how the company is moving more material into higher-value products rather than selling all output into the merchant market. Recycling can strengthen that model by expanding available feedstock.

Yunnan Germanium also plans to diversify external suppliers of germanium-bearing waste slag. It will seek medium- to long-term supply agreements with quality provisions and emergency replenishment clauses.

The company also plans to build a raw material inventory reserve and a price-alert mechanism. It will adjust production and inventory strategies when germanium prices move by more than 10%.

These measures show a more disciplined approach to minor-metal procurement. In markets such as germanium, small disruptions can produce large price movements because supply is concentrated and liquidity is limited.

Export Controls Increase Strategic Value of Germanium Recovery

Germanium has become more strategically sensitive since China placed the metal under strict dual-use export controls in September 2023. China accounts for an estimated 60-70% of global germanium capacity.

This gives Chinese producers significant influence over global availability. It also makes domestic resource recovery more valuable, especially when export controls, defence demand and semiconductor-related applications increase policy attention.

Yunnan Germanium’s revenue rose to 1.07bn yuan in 2025 from 767mn yuan in 2024. Higher prices for key products, including raw-material-grade germanium, supported the increase despite lower external raw metal output.

The company’s recycling investment therefore supports both security and profitability. More stable feedstock access can improve operating flexibility when prices rise or external raw material supply tightens.

For downstream customers, the project may improve Yunnan Germanium’s ability to supply deeper-processed products. These include materials linked to optics, fibre communication, photovoltaics, infrared systems and compound semiconductors.

The broader market implication is clear. Germanium supply security will depend not only on mine output or primary production, but also on recycling, waste recovery, inventory control and long-term feedstock agreements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan Germanium’s recycling plan shows that strategic minor metals are moving toward closed-loop resource control. In germanium, the advantage will belong to producers that can combine primary supply, secondary recovery and downstream processing under one feedstock strategy.

International Graphite Wogen Offtake Builds Asia-Pacific Supply Route

Graphite

International Graphite Wogen offtake plans could create a new Australia-to-Asia graphite supply route as International Graphite prepares to commission its Collie processing facility in Western Australia. The non-binding agreement combines concentrate supply with downstream sales of micronised spherical graphite.

International Graphite Wogen offtake terms allow Wogen to supply up to 10,000 t/yr of graphite flake concentrate to Collie. In return, International Graphite would supply at least 3,000 t/yr of micronised spherical graphite to Wogen’s Pacific arm for exclusive marketing across Asia-Pacific.

International Graphite Wogen offtake is strategically relevant because Japan and South Korea are major battery and advanced materials markets seeking more diversified graphite sources outside China. Commercial terms will be negotiated on a spot basis, while Wogen may provide credit lines to support transactions.

The companies aim to convert the arrangement into a binding agreement before the 4,000 t/yr Collie facility begins commercial production in mid-2027.

Collie Creates Midstream Graphite Capacity Outside China

The Collie plant gives International Graphite a route into higher-value graphite processing rather than relying only on upstream mining. The facility will produce micronised spherical graphite from imported flake concentrate during its initial operating phase.

This matters because graphite value chains depend heavily on processing. Natural graphite must undergo sizing, shaping, purification and coating before it can qualify as active anode material for lithium-ion batteries.

The material produced at Collie will still require additional processing before use in battery anodes. That means the project sits in the midstream rather than representing a fully integrated battery-anode supply chain.

However, the Wogen agreement creates a commercial bridge into Japan and South Korea. Both markets have established battery, automotive and electronics industries that require secure sources of processed graphite.

Wogen’s ability to supply up to 10,000 t/yr of concentrate also gives International Graphite feedstock flexibility while its own mining plans remain on hold.

The Collie commissioning schedule has moved to mid-2027 from an earlier January 2027 target. Production is expected to ramp over the following 18 months.

Springdale Delay Highlights Processing-First Strategy

International Graphite ultimately plans to source flake graphite from its Springdale project in Western Australia. But the company has paused exploration and drilling while concentrating capital and management resources on Collie and its Italian midstream joint venture with Alkeemia.

This sequencing reflects a pragmatic strategy. Building processing capability first can establish customers, product qualification and market access before the company commits larger capital to mine development.

Springdale received A$4.7mn in Australian federal government support in 2023. The resource could eventually provide domestic feedstock to Collie and create a more vertically integrated Australian graphite chain.

For now, the project will rely on external concentrate. That reduces near-term upstream development risk but increases dependence on third-party feedstock availability and pricing.

The Wogen arrangement helps manage that exposure while providing an outlet for processed material. If converted into a binding contract, it would cover a substantial share of Collie’s planned production capacity.

The broader opportunity is ex-China graphite diversification. China remains dominant in spherical graphite and battery-anode processing, making new midstream capacity in Australia strategically important even before full anode qualification is achieved.

The Metalnomist Commentary

International Graphite is prioritising the hardest commercial step first: building processing capacity and customer routes before expanding its mine. If Collie secures reliable feedstock and qualifies into Asian markets, Springdale can later become the upstream anchor of a more integrated ex-China graphite chain.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Risk Tightening Feedstock Without Fixing Oversupply

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel ore quotas are becoming a more powerful market signal in 2026. Jakarta is expected to cut RKAB approvals to around 250mn–260mn t. That looks like a strong intervention on paper. However, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock without solving Indonesian nickel oversupply in downstream products.

The core imbalance is no longer in ore. The real surplus sits in nickel pig iron, matte, and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Domestic ore prices remain elevated, which suggests ore availability is still tight. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may create upstream stress while leaving downstream nickel products oversupplied.

This matters because policy and market structure are moving in opposite directions. Indonesia continues to expand smelting and HPAL capacity aggressively. At the same time, ore quotas are becoming harder to secure in full. As a result, the market may move toward feedstock shortages rather than a true rebalancing of refined nickel supply.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Could Create an Upstream Bottleneck

Indonesia nickel ore quotas appear lower than expected ore demand for 2026. The approved ceiling now looks below estimated domestic ore requirements. That gap raises the risk of feedstock shortages for smelters. Consequently, nickel ore supply tightness may become the market’s next major problem.

Vale Indonesia shows how this pressure is already emerging. Market participants say its approved RKAB is only a fraction of requested volume. Yet the company is developing multiple HPAL projects that will require large limonite ore volumes. Therefore, limited quota approvals could constrain new downstream capacity before it reaches full utilisation.

The ore issue is also more complex than headline tonnage suggests. RKAB quotas are issued in wet tons, not uniform recoverable nickel units. Moisture content and ore grade can vary significantly. As a result, nominal quota levels may overstate real usable feedstock availability.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of risk. Indonesia’s forestry crackdown has targeted a large area of mining land without valid permits. Nickel operations could be affected, especially smaller miners or forest-zone projects. Meanwhile, quota delays themselves can disrupt ore availability even before formal supply cuts take full effect.

Indonesian Nickel Oversupply Will Persist Unless Smelter Output Is Also Disciplined

Indonesian nickel oversupply is still concentrated in processed products, not in ore. Cutting ore quotas alone does not automatically solve NPI, matte, or MHP oversupply. Smelters can still try to secure imported feedstock from the Philippines or New Caledonia. However, those alternative sources remain limited and unreliable.

That means imported ore is a cost issue, not a structural solution. Greater reliance on foreign ore would lift smelter input costs and compress margins. It would not remove the global glut in downstream nickel products. Therefore, the policy may shift pressure upstream while preserving the same downstream oversupply.

Royalties could deepen that squeeze further. Higher nickel prices may trigger increased royalty rates on ore and processed products. That would raise costs across the chain at a time when refined markets remain weak. As a result, profitability could deteriorate even if LME prices stay temporarily supported.

The government may still adjust course later in the year. Producers can use part of earlier three-year approvals through the end of March, and market participants expect later reviews. That suggests the headline RKAB figure may not be a fixed ceiling. Even so, policy uncertainty is already becoming a stronger driver of nickel prices than actual market healing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is trying to influence prices through ore control, but the real surplus remains downstream. That mismatch could turn a refined nickel glut into an upstream bottleneck without delivering true market balance. Unless ore discipline is matched by smelter discipline, volatility will remain the defining feature of the nickel market.

US Antimony feedstock sourcing expands to secure smelter supply

US Antimony feedstock

US Antimony feedstock sourcing broadened across the US and overseas to stabilize operations. The company moved to secure inputs for its Montana and Mexico smelters. As a result, it advanced domestic mining claims and lined up new international suppliers. However, it also flagged issues with Australian material quality and logistics.

Domestic expansion: Alaska and Montana

US Antimony feedstock sourcing grew with new Alaska claims, including a 150-acre site near Fairbanks. The firm expects faster permitting since the land is neither federal nor state. Meanwhile, reacquired claims beside its Montana smelter should deliver stibnite within months. Therefore, domestic ore should lower supply risk and trucking distances.

International diversification: Bolivia and Chad

Bolivia will supply up to 150 t/month of antimony flake starting in early 2026. A 10 t pilot shipment arrives at the Montana smelter in August. Additionally, two sources in Chad will feed the Madero smelter, starting with 80 t. Subsequent deliveries should reach 100 t/month to support steady throughput. Canada also lifted feedstock to 857 t year-to-date, up 121 percent.

Australian sourcing faces setbacks following a 50 t shipment held 82 days by Chinese customs. Concurrently, incoming ore showed elevated arsenic and iron, pressuring processing costs. However, broader sourcing and scrap blending can offset penalties and maintain recoveries. Therefore, the portfolio approach underpins more reliable antimony supply for strategic markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Diversification is the right hedge as geopolitics and impurities raise feedstock risk. Watch ramp discipline in Bolivia and Chad and impurity management in Montana. If logistics hold, US Antimony can claw back margin despite uneven market conditions.

Mt Marion Lithium Expansion Advances as MinRes and Ganfeng Lift Spodumene Supply

Mineral Resources

Mt Marion lithium expansion is moving ahead after Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium reached a final investment decision on a A$490mn upgrade at the Western Australian mine. The project will raise 6% spodumene concentrate output from 500,000 t/yr to 600,000 t/yr.

Mt Marion lithium expansion reflects renewed confidence in spodumene markets after a period of stronger pricing, Chinese demand and supply disruption from Zimbabwean export controls. The decision also reinforces Australia’s role as a core lithium feedstock supplier to global battery material chains.

Mt Marion lithium expansion includes A$220mn for underground mine development, A$240mn for a flotation plant and A$30mn for non-processing infrastructure. Construction is scheduled to begin in July-September.

The partners expect to commission the mine within 12 months of construction starting, with production ramp-up over the following six months. That timeline makes Mt Marion an important near-term growth project in the Australian hard-rock lithium sector.

Underground Mining Extends Mine Life and Feed Flexibility

The underground mine will supplement ore from the existing open pit and contribute up to 40% of processing feed. This will extend Mt Marion’s remaining mine life by six years beyond the previous estimate of 10 years.

That is strategically important because mine life extension improves supply visibility for customers and investors. Battery chemical producers need stable spodumene feedstock to support long-term lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate production.

The underground development also gives MinRes and Ganfeng more operational flexibility. Combining open-pit and underground ore can support feed blending, grade control and continuity as the mine matures.

The project will cause minimal disruption to existing operations, according to the company. That matters because the mine is already a major producing asset and any downtime could affect near-term shipments.

Mt Marion is also backed by a strong downstream partner. Ganfeng is one of China’s leading lithium companies, giving the project a direct link to one of the world’s largest battery materials markets.

Flotation Plant Targets Higher-Grade Product Mix

The new flotation plant will remove SC3.5 product from MinRes’ mix and deliver a minimum SC5 grade product. This is a key upgrade because higher-grade concentrate can improve processing efficiency for downstream converters.

SC6 remains the benchmark product for hard-rock lithium supply. Increasing SC6 output to 600,000 t/yr gives Mt Marion stronger exposure to higher-value concentrate markets.

The investment economics are highly sensitive to price. At an assumed SC6 price of $2,700/t, MinRes expects the expansion payback period to be less than one year.

Spodumene prices have risen in recent months, supported by Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate export controls and strong Chinese demand. The latest Australian SC6 assessment was $2,661/t on 19 May, down from $2,811/t a week earlier but still elevated enough to support renewed investment.

MinRes also cited higher lithium prices as a reason for restarting operations at its Bald Hill mine in Western Australia. Together, these moves suggest producers are again positioning for stronger lithium feedstock demand.

The broader lithium market remains volatile, but the Mt Marion decision shows that high-quality Australian assets can still attract capital when pricing, partners and mine-life extension align.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mt Marion’s expansion shows that lithium investment is returning first to established, scalable assets with strong downstream links. The key lesson is that the next lithium cycle will reward producers that can improve grade, extend mine life and secure reliable routes into China’s battery supply chain.

Increased Supplies and Weak Demand Pressure Chinese Rare Earths

As global supplies continue to rise and demand from downstream industries slows, market participants anticipate short-term downward pressure on Chinese rare earth markets. Consecutive output increases, driven by higher ore feedstock supplies from China’s mining quotas and imports from major supplier countries, coupled with reduced capacity utilization in the magnet industry, have resulted in elevated inventories across many rare earth companies. This has prompted suppliers to destock materials at comparatively lower prices. Pessimism regarding short-term demand outlooks is growing, particularly in light of the global economic downturn.

China's rare earth output has steadily increased over recent years, supported by higher mining quotas and ore feedstock imports. Metalnomist projects that China’s total quotas for rare earth mining products in 2024 will rise by 10-15% compared to the previous year, reaching 280,000-290,000 tons. The production of praseodymium-neodymium oxide from these quotas is expected to reach approximately 44,500-45,500 tons this year, up from around 40,000 tons in 2023.

Imports of ore feedstock from Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar (Burma), Laos, and Malaysia, are projected to increase by 3-5% in 2024, reaching around 60,000 tons of rare earth oxide (REO), as rising shipments from Laos outweigh declines from Myanmar and Malaysia. Conversely, China’s rare earth metal ore imports from the US are likely to decrease by over 30% from the previous year, falling below 28,000 tons of REO, due to increased domestic consumption in the US. US-based rare earth producer MP Materials more than doubled its praseodymium-neodymium oxide production during April-June and expects a further 50% increase in the third quarter, further reducing its exports to China.

Metalnomist forecasts China’s production of praseodymium-neodymium oxide using ore feedstock imports from Southeast Asia and the US to reach around 20,000-21,000 tons in 2024. Overall, China’s praseodymium-neodymium oxide output is expected to rise to approximately 92,000-95,000 tons this year, representing a 10% increase from 2023.

China's total production of dysprosium oxide in 2024 is expected to increase to around 3,600-3,700 tons, including approximately 400 tons from domestic mining quotas, 2,000 tons from ore feedstock imports, and around 1,000 tons from neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet scraps. Terbium oxide production is also projected to rise to around 650 tons, with around 75 tons produced from China’s mining quotas, 390 tons from ore feedstock imports, and 180 tons from NdFeB magnet scraps.

Over the past decade, many magnet plants have reduced their consumption of ferro-dysprosium and terbium metal by more than 70% to cut production costs. Market participants warn that this could lead to a surplus of over 1,000 tons of dysprosium oxide and more than 200 tons of terbium oxide this year, unless China’s State Reserve Bureau intervenes with stockpiling efforts to alleviate inventory pressures on rare earth separation plants.

Expansion Slows Amidst Growing Competition

The average operating rates at most of China’s magnet plants have declined to around 60% over the past two months, driven by falling magnet prices and reduced consumer orders during the traditional off-season. China’s rough NdFeB magnet output reached 270,000-280,000 tons in 2023, an 8% increase from the previous year. Some market participants expect production to rise to around 300,000 tons in 2024, as large-scale magnet plants boost operations to secure more market share and consumer orders. However, medium and small magnet plants have been forced to reduce their operating rates to below 50% or suspend operations entirely due to profitability and cash flow challenges.

Major Chinese magnet manufacturer Jinli Magnet aims to increase its production capacity to 38,000 tons per year for rough NdFeB magnets by the end of 2024, and to 40,000 tons per year for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets and advanced magnetic components by 2025. Currently, the company’s output capacity stands at 23,000 tons per year. Meanwhile, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material plans to reach an output capacity of 36,000 tons per year for permanent magnetic materials by 2026.

A few magnet plants have slowed their output expansions, as fierce price competition in downstream applications, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, has severely squeezed profit margins. "I heard that major Chinese NEV manufacturer BYD was required to use cerium-iron-boron (CeFeB) magnets instead of NdFeB in a bid to reduce its production costs and enhance global competitiveness," a source from a magnet plant revealed.

China's production of CeFeB magnets is forecast to rise to over 100,000 tons this year, up from approximately 70,000 tons in 2023, the source added.

SRG NuCycle Acquisition Adds Low-Copper Shred Capacity in South Carolina

SRG

SRG NuCycle acquisition will expand Southeast Recycling Group’s scrap processing network with an automotive shredder capable of producing low-copper ferrous scrap. The deal strengthens SRG’s position in the southeastern US recycling market.

SRG NuCycle acquisition includes NuCycle’s Rock Hill, South Carolina, operations, its 4,000-horsepower Danieli shredder and auto parts yard Carolina Salvage. The transaction is expected to close later this month.

SRG NuCycle acquisition is strategically important because low-copper shred is increasingly valuable to steelmakers seeking cleaner ferrous feedstock. Better scrap quality supports electric arc furnace steelmaking, improves melt efficiency and reduces contamination risk in higher-grade steel products.

SRG will also gain downstream non-ferrous recovery capability through NuCycle’s existing system. This adds value beyond ferrous scrap by improving recovery of aluminium, copper, stainless and other non-ferrous fractions.

Low-Copper Shredder Strengthens Ferrous Scrap Quality

The acquired shredder is a 4,000-horsepower 80×108-inch Danieli unit. It includes a ballistic separator designed to produce a low-copper ferrous product.

This matters because copper contamination is one of the most important quality issues in ferrous scrap. Residual copper can limit the use of scrap in flat-rolled and higher-quality steel applications.

Low-copper shred gives processors a stronger product for steel mills that need cleaner scrap feedstock. It also helps bridge the quality gap between obsolete scrap and more controlled prime scrap streams.

SRG had previously planned to install a shredder at one of its existing sites. Instead, it chose to acquire an operating shredder platform, which can shorten the path to capacity and customer access.

The addition of Carolina Salvage also improves feedstock control. Auto parts yards can support shredder supply by bringing end-of-life vehicles and related material into the processing chain.

Consolidation Expands SRG’s Southeast Scrap Platform

SRG is also expanding through a separate merger with Morris Scrap Metal of Kings Mountain, North Carolina. Morris Scrap will join SRG as a new partner.

Once the NuCycle and Morris Scrap deals close, SRG will operate seven locations. The combined platform will have capacity of 300,000 gross tons per year of ferrous scrap and 150mn lb per year of non-ferrous scrap.

This scale gives SRG a stronger regional presence in the Carolinas and the broader southeastern US. It also improves collection density, logistics efficiency and customer coverage.

The deals continue SRG’s consolidation strategy after the company was formed last year from the merger of Carolina Metals Group and Spartan Recycling Group.

US scrap markets are becoming more competitive as steelmakers, aluminium producers and recyclers seek better feedstock quality and more reliable supply. Regional processors with shredding, sorting and non-ferrous recovery capacity are better positioned to serve that demand.

SRG’s expansion therefore reflects a wider industrial trend. Scrap recycling is moving from simple volume handling toward quality-controlled feedstock production for steel, aluminium and other metals supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SRG’s NuCycle deal shows that scrap processing value is shifting toward quality, not just tonnage. Low-copper shred and better non-ferrous recovery will matter more as US mills demand cleaner, more traceable recycled feedstock.

LB Titanium Dioxide Output Falls as Sponge and Battery Materials Expand

LB Titanium

LB titanium dioxide output fell in 2025 as weaker prices, slower demand and rising trade barriers pressured the global pigment market. China’s largest titanium producer reported titanium dioxide production of 1.28mn t, down 1.5% from a year earlier.

LB titanium dioxide output declined even as sales edged higher to 1.26mn t. Domestic sales accounted for 45% of volumes, while international sales made up 55%, showing that overseas markets remain critical to the company’s TiO2 business.

LB titanium dioxide output came under pressure from structural oversupply. New capacity entered the market, prices weakened and several domestic producers cut operating rates to protect margins.

The company also pointed to anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and the Eurasian Economic Union, along with higher US tariffs on Chinese material. These measures have fragmented trade flows and made the global titanium dioxide market more difficult for Chinese exporters.

Titanium Sponge Offers a Stronger Counterweight

LB’s titanium sponge business moved in the opposite direction. Titanium sponge output rose by 2.3% on the year to 71,300t, while sales increased by 0.9% to 67,500t.

The stronger sponge result matters because titanium sponge sits closer to aerospace, industrial titanium mill products and high-performance alloy supply chains. It gives LB a more diversified titanium platform beyond pigment markets.

Titanium sponge prices were also firmer. Domestic 99.7% grade sponge prices averaged 49,665 yuan/t ex-works in 2025, up from 48,270 yuan/t a year earlier.

LB has 80,000 t/yr of titanium sponge capacity, the largest globally. That scale gives the company a major position in a market where feedstock security, product quality and downstream demand from titanium processors remain strategically important.

Titanium concentrate output fell by 3% to 1.45mn t, but LB did not sell concentrate externally. All concentrate was consumed internally to produce titanium dioxide and titanium sponge.

This internal use highlights the company’s integrated titanium value chain. LB can direct feedstock toward different downstream products depending on market conditions, although weak TiO2 demand still affects overall profitability.

Iron ore concentrate output fell more sharply, dropping by 18% to 3.04mn t. Sales decreased by 2.1% to 2.94mn t, showing softer performance in another mineral by-product stream.

Iron Phosphate Growth Signals Battery Materials Diversification

LB’s battery materials business showed much stronger momentum. Iron phosphate output jumped by 72% to 97,600t, while sales rose by 59% to 96,000t.

The growth was driven by firm demand from the lithium-ion battery sector. Iron phosphate is a key precursor for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, which are widely used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

This diversification is strategically important. Titanium dioxide remains LB’s largest product line, but the pigment market is facing oversupply, trade restrictions and weaker pricing. Battery materials offer a different growth channel tied to China’s expanding LFP ecosystem.

LB has 100,000 t/yr of iron phosphate capacity and 50,000 t/yr of LFP capacity. It also has 25,000 t/yr of graphite anode capacity and 50,000 t/yr of graphitisation capacity.

That product base positions LB across titanium, zirconium and battery materials. The company is no longer only a titanium dioxide producer, even though it remains the world’s largest TiO2 producer with 1.51mn t/yr of capacity.

The 2025 results show a clear split in the business. Titanium dioxide is under pressure from oversupply and trade action. Titanium sponge is holding stronger. Iron phosphate is growing with battery demand.

For LB, the industrial challenge is to manage a mature pigment business while expanding higher-growth materials platforms. Its integrated mineral base gives it flexibility, but market conditions across TiO2, sponge and battery materials are moving in different directions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LB’s results show how Chinese titanium producers are moving beyond pigment exposure into sponge and battery materials. The strategic value lies in feedstock integration, because companies that can shift internal mineral flows between TiO2, titanium sponge and battery precursors will be better positioned in volatile markets.

US Aluminum Scrap Export Bill Targets Supply Security

Aluminum Scrap

US aluminum scrap exports are facing new scrutiny after legislation was introduced directing the US International Trade Commission to examine the national and economic security risks of shipments to China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

US aluminum scrap exports have become increasingly important to domestic supply discussions because recycled metal now represents a major share of US aluminum consumption. The country recovered about 3.6mn t of aluminum from purchased scrap in 2025 while exporting an estimated 2.2mn t.

US aluminum scrap exports therefore sit at the centre of a policy debate between manufacturers seeking more domestic feedstock and recyclers that depend on overseas markets for surplus material.

The proposed Secure Aluminum Supply Chains bill would require an investigation rather than immediately impose export restrictions. Any future impact on trade would depend on the findings and subsequent policy decisions.

Domestic Mills Seek More High-Quality Scrap

US aluminum producers are increasing recycled content as they expand secondary smelting, rolling and remelting capacity. This raises demand for high-quality scrap such as used beverage cans and mill-grade material.

The Aluminum Association has previously supported tighter controls on selected scrap exports, particularly used beverage cans moving outside North America. Its position reflects concern that valuable feedstock is leaving the domestic manufacturing system.

Retaining more scrap could support US rolling mills, secondary smelters and downstream manufacturers by improving access to lower-energy aluminum feedstock.

Recycled aluminum has a significant energy advantage over primary metal production. That makes scrap increasingly valuable as manufacturers seek lower-carbon metal while controlling power costs.

The debate is also connected to US primary aluminum dependence. Greater use of recycled material can reduce pressure on imported primary metal and preserve primary aluminum for applications with tighter chemistry or performance requirements.

However, scrap quality matters. Not every exported grade can immediately replace primary metal or higher-quality domestic scrap in existing manufacturing systems.

Recyclers Warn Export Limits Could Create Domestic Surplus

The recycling industry argues that US manufacturers currently cannot absorb all aluminum scrap generated domestically.

Export markets therefore function as an outlet for material that may not have an immediate domestic buyer. Restricting those flows before sufficient processing and remelting capacity exists could weaken scrap prices and reduce incentives for collection.

This creates an important sequencing issue. Export controls could increase domestic availability, but additional recycling, sorting and remelting infrastructure would be needed to consume the material effectively.

The proposed investigation could help quantify that balance by examining scrap generation, domestic processing capacity, industrial demand and export destinations.

For US manufacturers, the long-term opportunity is to capture more recycled aluminum inside domestic supply chains. For recyclers, the concern is that restrictions introduced too quickly could reduce market liquidity.

The industrial question is therefore not simply whether the US exports too much scrap. It is whether domestic manufacturing capacity can absorb substantially more material at competitive prices and required quality levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aluminum scrap is becoming a strategic feedstock as US producers expand recycling and seek lower-carbon metal. Any future export restrictions will be most effective if domestic sorting, remelting and manufacturing capacity grows fast enough to absorb the additional supply.

SPMP Oman Antimony Smelter Sale Could Reshape Non-China Supply Options

SPMP

SPMP Oman antimony smelter ownership could change as Strategic & Precious Metals Processing seeks either a buyer for the Sohar asset or an operator to manage production. The move comes as antimony buyers look for secure processing capacity outside China.

SPMP Oman antimony smelter capacity is strategically important because the plant can produce around 20,000 t/yr of metallurgical and trioxide-grade antimony. This includes up to 10,000 t/yr of antimony trioxide.

SPMP Oman antimony smelter operations have been idled since the start of 2024. The shutdown removed a major alternative supply source from a market already facing tight concentrate availability and stronger strategic demand.

At full utilisation, the Sohar plant could account for roughly 12% of global antimony metal production. That gives any restart, sale or operating partnership clear market significance.

Feedstock Security Will Decide Restart Potential

The main challenge for SPMP is not only ownership. It is feedstock security.

The company does not own an antimony mine, so any sustainable restart will depend on securing a steady flow of concentrate. This is difficult in a market where concentrate supply is tight and producers are increasingly cautious about origin, pricing and long-term availability.

The Sohar roaster was designed as a major non-China processing hub. But without reliable feedstock, nameplate capacity alone cannot support the market.

SPMP initially idled the plant as a temporary measure, but operations did not resume. A global concentrate shortage made the restart path more difficult.

The plant also has capacity to produce 50,000 oz/yr of gold doré, adding by-product value if feedstock and operating economics can be stabilised.

The asset was established in 2014 as a joint venture involving Omani state interests, Tri-Star Resources and Dubai-based DNR Industries. After restructuring and financing changes, Tri-Star Resources and the Oman Investment Authority remain key stakeholders.

Antimony Processing Gains Strategic Value Outside China

The possible sale or operating partnership comes at a sensitive time for antimony markets. Chinese export controls have tightened access to refined material and increased interest in alternative processing hubs.

Antimony is used in flame retardants, ammunition, lead alloys, batteries, solar glass and defence-related applications. Its strategic importance has risen as governments reassess supply chains for critical minerals and dual-use materials.

A functioning Sohar plant would give buyers another route outside China. That matters because the number of large-scale alternative antimony processing centres remains limited.

However, the market has changed since SPMP stopped production. Southeast Asian processing capacity has expanded quickly over the past year in response to global tightness.

That new competition could affect the value of the Oman asset. A buyer or operator would need to secure concentrate, manage costs and compete with newer regional processing routes.

Still, Sohar has a strategic advantage. It is an established plant with significant nameplate capacity in a geopolitically important logistics location.

For antimony buyers, the key issue will be whether SPMP’s asset can return as a reliable supply source. If it does, it could reduce some dependence on Chinese-controlled flows and improve optionality for western and regional customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The SPMP Oman antimony smelter is valuable because processing capacity outside China is scarce. But the asset’s real worth depends on concentrate access, not nameplate capacity; without feedstock, even a strategically located smelter remains idle metal infrastructure.

Metallium and Glencore e-waste recycling partnership targets critical metals

Metallium

The Metallium and Glencore e-waste recycling partnership signals a strategic shift in critical metals sourcing. Under the deal, Glencore will become a major supplier of e-waste feedstock to Metallium. The Texas facility is scheduled to start commercial operations in 2026, processing complex electronic scrap streams. This early alignment anchors volumes ahead of construction and underpins the Metallium and Glencore e-waste recycling partnership.

Flash joule heating and feedstock security

Metallium will use flash joule heating technology to recover metals from synthesized LED manufacturing scrap and other residues. The process rapidly heats feedstock in a controlled chlorine atmosphere, liberating valuable elements into saleable chlorides and hydroxides. Metallium reports successful recovery of gallium, antimony, indium and other critical metals using this proprietary route. Meanwhile, the Metallium and Glencore e-waste recycling partnership secures diverse feedstock streams and technical support for incoming materials. Glencore will offtake up to 75 percent of most output, excluding certain high-value metals and rare earths.

Implications for critical metals and recycling markets

The Metallium and Glencore e-waste recycling partnership aims to de-risk project financing and market access ahead of plant start-up. By locking in a major offtaker, Metallium can focus on scaling technology and optimising recoveries of premium metals. Excluding gallium, germanium, indium and rare earth elements from the Glencore contract preserves upside for direct marketing. In parallel, Metallium has signed feedstock and collaboration agreements with Ucore, expanding its North American ecosystem. The agreement currently runs to year-end, with an option to extend or renegotiate as volumes grow.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership highlights how trading houses are pivoting into e-waste to secure future critical metals exposure. For recyclers, combining proprietary processing like flash joule heating with strategic offtake is becoming a de-risking blueprint. Investors should watch how quickly Metallium proves commercial yields, as that will shape future e-waste project valuations.