Nornickel Raises 2024 Production Guidance After Successful Repair Work

Nornickel

Russian multi-metals mining giant, Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), has raised its production forecast for 2024, including its key metals — nickel, copper, platinum, and palladium. This increase comes after Nornickel completed scheduled capital repair work ahead of time in the third quarter, boosting its operational efficiency.

The revised forecast shows Nornickel plans to produce between 196,000-204,000 tons of nickel, 337,000-357,000 tons of copper, 2.624 million to 2.724 million ounces of palladium, and 639,000 to 664,000 ounces of platinum in 2024. These numbers surpass the earlier projections made at the start of the year, which had set the target ranges at 184,000-194,000 tons for nickel, 334,000-354,000 tons for copper, 2.296 million-2.451 million ounces for palladium, and 567,000-605,000 ounces for platinum.

Efficient Furnace Repairs Drive Increased Output

One of the major contributors to this positive revision in production guidance was the early completion of the reconstruction of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant. Originally planned for 90 days, the furnace repair was completed in just 60 days, resulting in a 25% increase in smelting capacity. This allowed Nornickel to recover nickel production ahead of schedule and significantly boost mined production volumes.

Thanks to this efficient repair work, Nornickel’s nickel production saw a 3.45% year-on-year rise in the third quarter, reaching 55,805 tons. This represented a 16% increase from the previous quarter, further highlighting the positive impact of the Nadezhda furnace repairs. From January to September, Nornickel’s nickel output increased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 146,210 tons.

Growth in Copper and Platinum Group Metals

In addition to nickel, Nornickel's copper production also showed impressive growth, with a 7% increase year-on-year, reaching 107,497 tons in Q3. Output from January to September also rose by 7%, totaling 326,072 tons. This surge was attributed to a lower production base in 2023, as Nornickel upgraded its copper plant operations to improve the quality of copper cathodes.

Nornickel also saw a rise in its production of platinum group metals (PGMs). Palladium output increased by 2%, reaching 676,000 ounces, while platinum rose by 3.12% to 165,000 ounces. However, despite these gains, PGM production saw an 8% decrease in output compared to the second quarter due to the extended production cycle for these metals.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

The news of Nornickel’s production improvements comes amid a widening Class 1 nickel surplus, which has exerted downward pressure on nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Recently, nickel prices have been trading in the $16,000-$18,000 per ton range, with the most recent contract priced at $16,062.50 per ton, its lowest since September 13.

Nornickel’s expanded output and the influx of nickel from new Asian LME brands have contributed to this surplus, impacting the LME nickel benchmark. Despite the surplus, analysts expect the price of nickel to stabilize within the current range in the near term.