LME Harjavalta Nickel Suspension Puts Class 1 Nickel Warrants Under Review

Harjavalta Nickel

LME Harjavalta nickel suspension will stop new warranting of Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta’s primary nickel briquettes and cathodes from 19 June. The London Metal Exchange said no further deliveries of these Finnish-produced products will be accepted for warranting after that date.

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension does not remove existing warranted metal from the system. Material already on warrant can continue to circulate, but once cancelled after the deadline, it will not be eligible for re-warranting.

The move matters because Harjavalta is a key European source of class 1 nickel. Its cathodes and briquettes are used in stainless steel, battery materials, alloy production, and other high-purity nickel applications.

Administrative Review Appears More Likely Than Supply Disruption

Market participants view the LME Harjavalta nickel suspension as likely procedural rather than a sign of quality or production problems. The three-month lead time suggests the issue may relate to documentation, compliance, or brand listing requirements.

The LME regularly reviews listed brands to ensure producers meet exchange rules. These rules include responsible sourcing standards and documentation obligations, which have become more important across metals markets.

That interpretation limits the immediate market impact. Traders do not expect a major disruption to European nickel availability or premiums, especially because other high-grade nickel brands remain available within the broader class 1 supply pool.

Class 1 Nickel Flexibility Reduces Near-Term Market Risk

Harjavalta material remains important, but the European market has some flexibility through substitution between high-grade forms such as cathodes, briquettes, and rounds. This flexibility should reduce the short-term impact of the warranting suspension.

The spot market may also see limited direct disruption because Harjavalta has reportedly committed most near-term capacity to term contracts. That means spot availability was already constrained before the LME announcement.

Still, the suspension highlights the rising importance of exchange compliance in critical metal supply chains. For nickel buyers, warrant eligibility, responsible sourcing documentation, and brand approval status are becoming part of supply risk management.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension is unlikely to trigger an immediate supply shock, but it shows how administrative compliance can affect market liquidity. In class 1 nickel, exchange status now matters almost as much as physical availability.

ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal

African Rainbow Minerals

ARM Nkomati nickel mine restart prospects have strengthened after African Rainbow Minerals signed a multi-year nickel concentrate sales agreement with Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden. The agreement could support the return of one of South Africa’s important multi-metal nickel assets.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine has been on care and maintenance since 2020. ARM and Norilsk Nickel placed the operation into suspension after profitability weakened because of lower output.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine produced nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome and platinum group metals. Its potential restart would therefore add more than nickel units to the market, supporting several metals linked to batteries, stainless steel, alloys and industrial supply chains.

The deal with Boliden remains conditional. It depends on approval to recommence open-pit mining of nickel-bearing ore at Nkomati, responsible sourcing due diligence by Boliden and other regulatory clearances.

Boliden Agreement Gives Nkomati a Processing Route

The sales agreement gives ARM a potential outlet for Nkomati nickel concentrate if mining restarts. Boliden expects the concentrate to be shipped to its Harjavalta smelter in Finland.

Harjavalta produces nickel matte, making it a logical destination for nickel-bearing concentrate. The route would connect South African mine supply with European smelting capacity.

This matters because nickel concentrate needs secure processing access before a restart can become commercially meaningful. A mine can have geological potential, but it still needs offtake, logistics, smelting capacity and customer qualification.

Boliden’s responsible sourcing due diligence is also important. European smelters and customers increasingly require stronger documentation around mine origin, ESG standards and supply-chain integrity.

The agreement therefore does more than provide a buyer. It gives the Nkomati restart a possible downstream pathway into a European refining and smelting system.

For ARM, the deal could improve the commercial case for reopening the mine. For Boliden, it could provide another concentrate source for its nickel operations at a time when secure non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically relevant.

South African Nickel Supply Could Regain Strategic Relevance

Nkomati’s ownership structure has changed since the mine entered care and maintenance. Nornickel’s South African subsidiary agreed in November 2023 to transfer its 50% stake to ARM, and the transaction was finalised in July 2025.

Full ARM control gives the South African company more direct strategic flexibility. It can evaluate restart options without the same joint-venture complexity that previously shaped the asset.

The potential restart comes at a time when nickel markets remain divided. Indonesia dominates new supply growth, but European and western buyers are increasingly interested in diversified, traceable and geopolitically balanced feedstock.

Nkomati’s multi-metal profile adds to its relevance. Nickel remains important for stainless steel, batteries and superalloys. Cobalt supports batteries and high-performance alloys. Platinum group metals serve automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies and industrial applications.

However, restart economics will be the decisive issue. The mine was suspended because lower output weakened profitability. Any recommencement will need a stronger operating plan, stable grades, reliable processing economics and clear market support.

The Boliden agreement is an important step, but not the final decision. The project still needs operational approval, regulatory clearance and successful due diligence before concentrate flows can resume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ARM-Boliden agreement shows that idled nickel assets can regain value when buyers prioritise diversified and traceable supply. Nkomati’s restart will depend less on headline nickel prices alone and more on whether ARM can rebuild a reliable mine-to-smelter route.

China's Share of LME Nickel Stock Rises to Nearly 30%

China's share of nickel warrants in global London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses surged to almost 30% at the end of June, according to the LME's latest country of origin stock report. This marks a significant increase from 10% at the end of the previous quarter and 11% at the start of 2024.

Chinese-origin nickel on-warrant stocks totaled 25,152 tons at the end of June, accounting for 27.9% of total on-warrant LME stocks. Overall, total on-warrant LME stocks reached 90,294 tons by the end of June, representing an increase of 28.3% from the end of March and 56.3% since the beginning of the year. Inventories were last reported at 95,982 tons, the highest level since October 2021.

The LME has approved the warranting of 171,600 tons per year of new Chinese nickel capacity over the past year. Major producers Huayou and CNGR have been sending shipments of Class 1 metal to the exchange's Asian warehouses. Additionally, China has utilized excess Class 2 capacity to convert low-grade nickel into LME-deliverable nickel cathode, positioning itself as a significant player in the European market.

Meanwhile, Russian-origin Class 1 nickel, which has traditionally been the largest source of LME warrants, declined from 30% at the end of 2023 to 26.7% at the end of June amid geopolitical tensions. In April, the LME banned all Russian metals, including nickel produced on or after April 13, from its global warehouse system following new sanctions by the UK and US governments. Nickel produced prior to this date, labeled as Type 1 warrants, remains eligible for delivery and currently makes up all 24,180 tons stored. The LME also suspended the delivery of nickel products from the Finland-based Harjavalta refinery, owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel, affecting the producer's cathode and briquette brands. Finland-origin nickel made up 1,308 tons of LME on-warrant stocks at the end of June.

Australia was the largest source of LME on-warrant nickel stocks in June, with 26,322 tons. However, China is expected to take the lead in the coming months as its Class 1 output accelerates and Australia's loss-making operations increasingly enter care and maintenance.

South African-origin nickel in LME warehouses totaled 7,734 tons at the end of June, while Canadian material amounted to 2,388 tons.

Nickel Production Halted at Ambatovy Plant Following Pipeline Damage

Sumitomo Nickel

Nickel and cobalt production at Madagascar's Ambatovy plant has been suspended after damage to a slurry pipeline, a crucial component for transporting ore from the mine to the refinery. The suspension, announced by the plant’s majority owner, Japanese trading group Sumitomo, comes as a setback for one of the few remaining active producers of nickel briquettes.

Damage Sparks Concerns Over Ambatovy's Viability

On September 25, Sumitomo revealed that the pipeline damage led to an ore discharge, prompting the decision to halt operations. While there were no injuries reported, an investigation is underway to determine the cause of the incident. The disruption has raised concerns, particularly as Ambatovy is already grappling with high production costs and market pressures.

Ambatovy is one of the few facilities still capable of producing nickel briquettes, a key form of refined nickel used in various industries. With BHP no longer actively producing briquettes and Russia's Norilsk Nickel resuming production at its Harjavalta refinery after a temporary suspension by the London Metal Exchange, the global supply chain has faced volatility. However, trading firms report that the ban on Norilsk's production has been lifted, and output is ramping up, offering some relief to the market.

Despite this, the long-term future of Ambatovy remains uncertain. Trading companies have pointed out that the plant's high production costs significantly exceed current benchmark nickel prices, by as much as $10,000 per tonne, raising questions about its economic viability. "Sumitomo must be considering the mounting losses right now," a trading source remarked. "They have a reputation for being slow decision-makers, likely hesitating to halt production because they could absorb the losses against profits elsewhere."

The financial challenges facing the project have been underscored by a recent debt restructuring plan filed in a London court, as confirmed by Sumitomo Metals Mining representatives. This move suggests that the company is actively seeking solutions to mitigate the financial strain caused by declining nickel prices and operational inefficiencies.

In terms of output, Ambatovy's nickel production for April to June was around 8,000 tonnes, marking a 20% decline from the same period last year. The suspension of production due to the pipeline damage adds to existing concerns over the plant's future, and it remains to be seen how Sumitomo will navigate these mounting challenges.

Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.

First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.

Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.

Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.

Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.

Boliden Zinc Output Surge Reshapes Its 2025 Base Metals Profile

Boliden

Boliden zinc output surge became the clearest feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The company sharply increased mined zinc, while copper also moved higher and nickel stayed broadly stable. Asset restarts and acquisitions drove much of the change. As a result, Boliden zinc output surge has reshaped the company’s base metals profile.

The zinc growth was especially strong. Zinc-in-concentrate production rose 114pc year on year to 350,764t in 2025. The restart of Tara and the additions of Somincor and Zinkgruvan were the main drivers. Therefore, Boliden zinc output surge reflects both portfolio expansion and improved operating availability.

Refined output, however, showed a different pattern. Refined zinc metal production rose only 1pc to 457,345t. That more modest gain highlights the difference between mine growth and smelter expansion timing. Meanwhile, the Odda zinc expansion continued ramping up and supported stronger output in Norway.

Boliden Copper Production Improved, but Smelter Conditions Stayed Mixed

Boliden copper production also improved in 2025, although the gain was smaller than zinc. Copper-in-concentrate output increased 15pc to 104,400t. Somincor contributed added volumes, while Aitik improved later in the year. As a result, Boliden copper production ended the year on a firmer footing.

Aitik’s recovery is particularly important for the 2026 outlook. Copper grades improved toward the end of 2025 after earlier weakness. The company now expects better grades in the second half of 2026, along with higher throughput. Therefore, Aitik remains a key swing factor for Boliden copper production.

Refined copper performance stayed more stable than mined output. Copper cathode production rose 2pc to 162,329t, supported by strong performance at Harjavalta. Copper anode production remained broadly flat, although Ronnskar faced maintenance and operational disruption in the fourth quarter. Consequently, copper smelting conditions remain less straightforward than the mined copper recovery suggests.

Odda Zinc Expansion and Precious Metals Support the 2026 Outlook

The Odda zinc expansion remains one of Boliden’s most important operational themes. Output at Odda rose 10pc to 167,136t in 2025 as the smelter continued ramp-up. Hot commissioning is still ongoing, and new leach product volumes continue to increase. Therefore, Odda could remain a meaningful growth lever into 2026.

Nickel was the weaker area on the refining side. Nickel-in-concentrate output edged up 1pc to 11,627t, but refined nickel matte output at Harjavalta fell 16pc to 33,551t. Process disturbances and maintenance weighed on performance. As a result, Boliden nickel output looked stable upstream but weaker downstream.

The broader margin picture may depend increasingly on by-products. Boliden said stronger gold and silver prices were an important earnings driver in late 2025. That support is expected to remain relevant for smelter margins going forward. Meanwhile, planned 2026 maintenance shutdowns are expected to reduce operating profit, which makes precious metals support even more important.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden’s 2025 result shows how much portfolio structure can change a miner’s growth profile in a single year. Zinc was the headline winner, but the deeper story is that smelter margins may depend as much on by-products and execution as on base metal volume. If Odda and Aitik continue improving, Boliden could enter 2026 with a stronger operating mix than the market first assumes.

Boliden Zinc and Copper Output Rises After Lundin Mine Acquisitions

Swedish Boliden

Boliden zinc and copper output increased in the first quarter as the Swedish mining and smelting group benefited from the 2025 acquisitions of Somincor in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden. The additions lifted concentrate production sharply from a year earlier, although operational disruptions limited quarter-on-quarter momentum.

Boliden zinc and copper output growth was strongest on a year-on-year basis. Zinc-in-concentrate production rose by 54% to 89,200t, while copper-in-concentrate output increased by 53% to 28,824t.

Boliden zinc and copper output still faced several short-term constraints. Seismic activity halted operations at Garpenberg in Sweden, poor ground conditions weighed on Tara in Ireland, and heavy rainfall affected Somincor in Portugal.

The first-quarter result shows the impact of Boliden’s larger asset base. Acquisitions increased scale, but operational reliability, grade control and smelter performance remain central to the company’s 2026 metals outlook.

Zinc Growth Masks Garpenberg and Tara Disruption

Boliden’s zinc-in-concentrate output rose strongly from a year earlier because Somincor and Zinkgruvan added new mine volumes. However, production fell by 3% from the previous quarter, showing that acquired capacity did not fully offset operational headwinds.

Tara produced 17,413t of zinc-in-concentrate, down 19% from a year earlier. Poor ground conditions and other operational challenges weighed on the Irish mine.

Garpenberg output fell by 22% to 19,329t after seismic activity disrupted operations in mid-March. Boliden expects production to resume gradually in the second quarter, but the disruption has materially reduced the site’s 2026 outlook.

The company now expects Garpenberg milled volumes of around 1.5mn t in 2026, down from previous guidance of 3.7mn t. It forecasts 2.3mn t of milled volumes in 2027 and lowered Garpenberg’s zinc grade guidance to 2.7% from 2.9%.

Refined zinc production also weakened. Output fell by 2% on the year to 107,931t, mainly because production at Odda in Norway dropped by 19%.

Odda’s performance was affected by two unplanned roaster stoppages and the delayed start-up of another roaster. The decline shows how smelter reliability can offset stronger mine-side additions.

The zinc market backdrop remains tight in concentrate terms. Global refined zinc demand fell by 7% from the previous quarter because of seasonal patterns, but was unchanged from a year earlier. Global zinc concentrate production rose by 4% year on year, while spot treatment charges fell from $35/t to $0/t during the quarter.

Falling treatment charges are important for zinc smelters and miners. They indicate that concentrate availability remains tight relative to smelter demand, shifting bargaining power toward miners with available feedstock.

Copper Concentrate Tightness Supports Strategic Value

Boliden’s copper-in-concentrate output rose by 53% from a year earlier to 28,824t. The increase was mainly driven by the addition of Somincor and Zinkgruvan.

Quarter-on-quarter copper output slipped by 3% from 29,690t. Boliden attributed the decline mainly to slightly lower copper grades at Aitik and lower production at Somincor.

Aitik remained the company’s core copper asset. Milled volumes were 9.8mn t, broadly in line with a year earlier, but lower copper grades weighed on output.

However, Aitik showed operational strengths. Boliden reported high mining rates and better recoveries than in the first quarter of 2025 because of less oxidised ore.

At the smelter level, copper cathode production rose by 12% on the year to 41,567t, although it fell by 2% from the previous quarter. Harjavalta performed better than a year earlier, when strikes in Finland and a lack of suitable concentrates weighed on operations.

Casted copper anode production rose by 4% year on year to 107,714t. This supports Boliden’s integrated copper position, linking mine output with smelting and refining capacity.

Boliden also highlighted tightening copper concentrate conditions. Global refined copper consumption fell by 10% from the previous quarter and by 1% from a year earlier, but concentrate production was stable quarter on quarter.

Spot treatment charges continued to fall, and Chinese benchmark contracts settled at zero treatment and refining charges. This underlines structural tightness in the copper concentrate market, even when refined demand indicators are mixed.

Nickel output was mixed. Nickel-in-concentrate production rose by 20% on the year to 3,282t and increased by 30% from the fourth quarter, supported by higher grades at Kevitsa.

Refined nickel performance moved lower. Nickel-in-matte production at Harjavalta fell by 17% on the year to 8,425t because of an unfavourable feed mix and higher pyrite consumption.

Boliden left 2026 guidance unchanged for all mines except Garpenberg. That means the main revision affects zinc and silver more than copper or nickel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden’s quarter shows how acquisitions can lift headline production while operational risks still shape real supply. The sharper signal is in treatment charges: zinc and copper concentrate markets remain tight enough that mine reliability and smelter feed quality now carry strategic value.