Nickel Market Surplus 2025 to Reach 198,000t on Indonesian Output Growth: INSG

Nickel Factory

Surplus Widens as Global Nickel Supply Outpaces Demand

The nickel market surplus in 2025 is expected to reach 198,000 tonnes, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). This marks an increase from 170,000t in 2023 and 179,000t in 2024, driven largely by continued production expansion in Indonesia across all major nickel product types. Global primary nickel production is forecast at 3.735mn tonnes, while demand lags behind at 3.537mn tonnes.

Indonesia Leads Supply Growth Despite Ore and Royalty Headwinds

Indonesia remains the engine of global nickel supply, despite recent permit issuance delays and the introduction of a new royalty regime based on the Harga Mineral Acuan, a price benchmark tied to LME nickel pricing. The full impact of these changes on mining output is still unclear. Meanwhile, China is also ramping up production of nickel cathode and nickel sulphate, although its nickel pig iron (NPI) output is expected to decline.

Mixed Demand Outlook: Stainless Steel Grows, Battery Demand Slows

The nickel market surplus in 2025 also reflects shifting demand trends. The stainless steel sector is projected to grow further, supporting baseline nickel consumption. However, demand from the EV battery sector is expected to slow due to rising use of non-nickel chemistries and increased adoption of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Still, new ternary cathode projects globally may support medium-term nickel usage recovery.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The projected nickel market surplus in 2025 signals continued pressure on prices. As Indonesia leads global production, market rebalancing may hinge on battery chemistry shifts and Chinese industrial demand.