Ivanhoe Expects Kakula Copper Output to Drop in 2025

Ivanhoe Mines

Seismic Impact on Copper Production

Ivanhoe Mines has revised its 2025 copper production guidance at the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company now expects output between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tonnes, down sharply from its earlier forecast of 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes. This adjustment follows seismic activity in May that forced a temporary suspension of underground operations.

Kakula, part of the joint-owned Kamoa-Kakula complex, had delivered a record 437,061 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2024. However, recent disruptions and subsequent water inflow management have cut near-term production expectations. Ivanhoe has stabilized water levels with added pumping capacity and restarted operations on the mine’s western side on 7 June, with plans to restart the eastern side later this year.

Outlook and Smelter Launch

Ivanhoe anticipates dewatering activities on the eastern mine zone will continue through the fourth quarter, while processing plants operate at reduced capacity. The project’s phase 1 and 2 concentrators are currently running at about 50% utilization, processing ore from surface stockpiles. Output should gradually recover as underground mining resumes across the complex.

Meanwhile, the company expects to commission its copper smelter in September, with first anode production scheduled for October. This development marks a significant milestone for Ivanhoe, as vertical integration could provide greater value capture and stability amid production disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s revised copper outlook highlights the operational risks inherent in mining in geologically complex regions. While short-term production losses are significant, the launch of its smelter may partially offset the impact by adding value downstream. Investors will closely watch whether recovery efforts align with timelines as global copper demand remains robust.