Kamoa-Kakula Copper Output Falls as Ivanhoe Shifts Toward Smelter Recovery

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula copper output fell sharply in the first quarter as Ivanhoe Mines continued to recover from seismic damage at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The complex produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate, down 54% from 133,120t a year earlier.

The decline reflects the continuing effect of the May 2025 seismic shocks that forced Ivanhoe to shut, drain and rebuild the Kakula mine. The asset remains in a staged recovery process and has not yet returned to full production.

Kamoa-Kakula copper output now sits below earlier expectations, forcing Ivanhoe to lower its 2026 guidance to 290,000-330,000t from 380,000-420,000t. The company also cut its 2027 target to 380,000-420,000t from 500,000-540,000t, although it still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

The weaker concentrate output is important for the global copper market because Kamoa-Kakula is one of the most important growth assets in the DRC copper belt. Any delay in its recovery reduces near-term copper supply from a region that has become central to global mine growth.

Smelter Output and Acid Production Cushion the Disruption

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results also showed a shift in the site’s operating profile. While copper concentrate output fell sharply, the Kamoa-Kakula smelter produced 63,671t of anode during the quarter.

The company also produced 7,746t of copper in blister from the LCS smelter in Kolwezi. This shows that Ivanhoe is building more downstream processing capability even as underground mine recovery continues.

The smelter gives Kamoa-Kakula a strategic advantage in the DRC. Most producers in the African Copperbelt rely on sulphuric acid for leaching operations, while Kamoa-Kakula produces sulphuric acid as a byproduct.

The on-site copper smelter produced 117,871t of high-strength sulphuric acid in the first quarter. This has become more important because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concern over sulphur supply into African hydrometallurgical operations.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid availability can directly affect DRC copper production costs. Producers that rely on imported sulphur or purchased acid may face higher costs or operating constraints if Middle East disruptions persist.

Ivanhoe’s position is different. The company does not need sulphuric acid for its own main copper production route and can instead produce acid for regional demand. This could turn a regional input shortage into a commercial advantage.

The main external risk for Ivanhoe is diesel availability. Diesel remains important for on-site energy generation and logistics in the DRC. Ivanhoe has made advanced diesel purchases and implemented contingency measures to sustain operations.

The company also has a lower diesel exposure than many regional operators because it has access to 250MW of hydroelectric capacity. A further 60MW of solar power with battery storage is expected to come online soon, strengthening the site’s energy resilience.

Kipushi Zinc Growth Adds Diversification Despite Grid Instability

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine delivered a stronger first-quarter result. The DRC mine produced a quarterly record of 65,044t of zinc in concentrate, up 52.2% from a year earlier and 5.9% from the previous quarter.

The result gives Ivanhoe an important diversification benefit while Kamoa-Kakula works through its recovery. Zinc concentrate output from Kipushi adds exposure to galvanizing, infrastructure, alloying and specialty metal supply chains.

Kipushi also carries strategic by-product relevance because the mine includes copper, lead and germanium. Germanium has become more important for semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems and defence applications.

However, Kipushi still faces infrastructure constraints. Ivanhoe said concentrator availability was affected by electrical grid instability, even as zinc output increased.

This highlights a wider challenge across the DRC mining sector. The country has high-grade resources and major growth potential, but reliable power, transport, reagents and logistics remain critical constraints.

For Kamoa-Kakula, the longer-term recovery depends on mine rebuilding, underground transport, smelter integration, acid market dynamics and energy reliability. The 2028 target of more than 500,000 t/yr remains achievable only if these systems stabilise together.

For the copper market, Ivanhoe’s first-quarter performance sends a mixed signal. Concentrate output remains sharply lower, but smelting and acid production are becoming more strategically valuable as regional supply chains face sulphur and fuel risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer just a copper volume story. Its smelter, sulphuric acid output and power mix could become strategic advantages in a DRC market exposed to reagent, fuel and logistics shocks.

Ivanhoe Copper and Zinc Production Soars Amid Smelter Commissioning

Ivanhoe copper

Strong First Quarter Driven by Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi Output

Ivanhoe Mines reported a 79% year-on-year rise in adjusted EBITDA to $226 million in Q1 2025. The surge was fueled by a major jump in Ivanhoe copper and zinc production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Kamoa-Kakula mine delivered 133,120 tonnes of copper, a 55% increase from last year. Meanwhile, Kipushi mine produced 42,736 tonnes of zinc, up by 32% on the quarter.

Smelter Commissioning Set to Unlock More Copper Value

Construction of the 500,000 t/yr smelter at Kamoa-Kakula is now complete, with commissioning underway. First copper anode production is expected in July. Despite selling 109,963 tonnes of copper in Q1 — up 29% — some inventory was held back in preparation for the smelter launch. Ivanhoe’s 2025 copper guidance remains 520,000–580,000 tonnes, with a long-term target of 600,000 tonnes/year.

Zinc Output Accelerates as Kipushi Ramps Up

Kipushi zinc sales rose 77% to 30,108 tonnes, reflecting ramp-up momentum since the November reopening. EBITDA at Kipushi jumped 160% to $10.5 million. Ivanhoe maintained 2025 zinc output guidance at 180,000–240,000 tonnes, with plans to exceed 250,000 tonnes in 2026. Ivanhoe is also expanding its exploration footprint through the Western Forelands copper belt, targeting discoveries near Kamoa-Kakula.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s investment in processing infrastructure like the Kamoa-Kakula smelter signals a strategic shift toward higher-margin, vertically integrated production. The scale and pace of Ivanhoe copper and zinc production position it as a dominant player in Africa’s critical minerals landscape.

Kamoa-Kakula Sulphuric Acid Output Turns Copperbelt Squeeze Into Margin Support

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid production has become a major earnings support for Ivanhoe Mines as tight acid availability across the African Copperbelt lifts by-product revenue. The company’s new direct-to-blister smelter in the Democratic Republic of Congo is turning a regional supply constraint into a margin advantage.

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid output reached 117,871t in the first quarter. Ivanhoe sold 107,700t to six offtakers at an average realised price of $467/t.

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid pricing is now moving higher. Ivanhoe recently signed a June delivery contract at $725/t and plans to re-tender and reprice remaining contracts by the end of the quarter.

The shift is strategically important because many copper producers in the DRC and Zambia consume sulphuric acid for leaching. Kamoa-Kakula, by contrast, produces acid as a by-product, giving Ivanhoe a natural hedge against the same squeeze hurting regional competitors.

Acid Credits Change the Kamoa-Kakula Cost Structure

Sulphuric acid has become one of the hidden drivers of Copperbelt copper economics. The DRC and Zambia rely heavily on acid for solvent extraction and leaching operations, and supply has tightened because of Middle East sulphur disruption, Zambian acid export controls and smelter maintenance in the region.

Ivanhoe said around 80% of sulphur imported into Africa moves through the Strait of Hormuz. That makes the Copperbelt highly exposed to disruption in Middle Eastern sulphur flows.

The Kamoa-Kakula smelter changes Ivanhoe’s exposure. Instead of paying higher acid costs, the operation is selling acid into a tight regional market.

Smelter operating costs averaged $0.27/lb in the first quarter. Sulphuric acid by-product credits more than offset that cost at $0.32/lb.

This cost structure helped lower Kamoa-Kakula’s cash cost to $2.58/lb from $2.99/lb in the previous quarter. The result was slightly below the lower end of Ivanhoe’s 2026 guidance range of $2.60-3.00/lb.

The smelter also reduced logistics costs. Kamoa-Kakula exported 99.7% pure copper anodes instead of 35-40% copper concentrate, cutting logistics costs to $0.22/lb from $0.70/lb in the fourth quarter.

That shift matters because the smelter moves Ivanhoe further down the value chain. Higher-grade exported material reduces transport intensity, lowers logistics exposure and improves revenue capture.

Kamoa-Kakula generated revenue of $862mn, operating profit of $221mn and Ebitda of $397mn in the quarter. That represented an Ebitda margin of 46%.

However, Ivanhoe’s group results were still weaker. Adjusted Ebitda fell to $191mn from $226mn a year earlier, while the company reported a $2mn quarterly loss compared with a $122mn profit a year earlier.

The loss mainly reflected Ivanhoe’s $42mn share of loss from Kamoa Holding after Kamoa-Kakula booked a $183mn tax adjustment to settle DRC tax claims from previous years. This means the headline loss should be separated from the operational value of the smelter and acid credits.

Smelter Ramp-Up Links Copper Recovery to Regional Supply Strategy

Kamoa-Kakula’s copper output remains affected by disruption from last year’s seismic activity. The operation produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate in the first quarter, down from 133,120t a year earlier.

Contained copper in blister and anode totalled 71,417t. This included 63,671t from the on-site smelter and 7,746t from the Lualaba Copper Smelter in Kolwezi.

Ivanhoe maintained Kamoa-Kakula’s 2026 guidance at 290,000-330,000t of contained copper in anode or blister. Its 2027 guidance remains at 380,000-420,000t.

The company still expects production to return to more than 500,000 t/yr from 2028, with a target cash cost below $2/lb. Reaching that level will depend on mine recovery, smelter utilisation, power stability and logistics performance.

The smelter is currently operating at around 60% of design capacity. It is producing acid at about 1,350 t/d, but further ramp-up is constrained by concentrate availability.

Ivanhoe is assessing purchases and toll treatment of local third-party copper concentrates to raise smelter utilisation and improve margins. This could make Kamoa-Kakula more important to the regional concentrate market.

That point matters globally. Chinese smelters continue to face negative treatment charges, showing how tight copper concentrate supply has become. If Kamoa-Kakula becomes a larger third-party treatment option, it could offer an alternative regional route for selected Copperbelt concentrates.

Logistics are also changing. The first shipment of Kamoa-Kakula anodes moved through the Lobito railway corridor during the quarter and reached the Atlantic port of Lobito before shipment to Europe for refining.

Ivanhoe said the Lobito rail route takes around seven days from the DRC Copperbelt to the port. That compares with more than three weeks by truck to Durban or Dar es Salaam.

Flood damage in Angola temporarily halted Lobito shipments, but movements are expected to resume later this month. If reliable, the corridor could become a major strategic route for Central African copper exports.

Energy remains another critical variable. Ivanhoe has secured five months of diesel supply to protect operations from global supply-chain disruption.

The company is also developing a 60MW solar and battery storage project expected to deliver baseload power to Kamoa-Kakula from early in the third quarter. It plans to double on-site solar capacity to 120MW by the end of 2027.

These steps show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer only a copper mine story. The asset now combines mining, smelting, acid supply, anode exports, rail logistics and on-site power strategy.

That integrated model gives Ivanhoe a stronger position in a region where other copper producers are exposed to acid shortages, sulphur disruption, diesel risk and long trucking routes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s smelter has turned Kamoa-Kakula into a more strategic Copperbelt asset, not just a high-grade copper producer. In a market where acid, logistics and power can decide margins, the operation’s by-product and infrastructure advantages may become as important as its copper grade.

Ivanhoe $200mn Santa Cruz copper project loan targets first cathodes by 2028

Ivanhoe Electric

The Ivanhoe $200mn Santa Cruz copper project loan boosts US copper development momentum. Ivanhoe Electric secured $200mn for its Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona. The Ivanhoe $200mn Santa Cruz copper project loan supports early construction and working capital. As a result, Ivanhoe aims to deliver Arizona copper cathodes by late 2028.

The loan comes from a three-bank group. National Bank Financial, Societe Generale, and BMO Capital Markets arranged a two-year facility. The interest rate starts at 8.8% and rises to 10.3% by term end. However, the structure signals lenders want near-term milestones and tighter execution control.

Project finance copper supports early works and de-risks the 2028 schedule

Ivanhoe will deploy the funding for early construction activities. The company will also cover working capital needs during development. Meanwhile, copper projects face long lead times for power, permitting, and equipment. Therefore, front-loaded capital can reduce schedule slippage.

The company targets first copper cathodes by the end of 2028. This timeline aligns with rising US copper supply urgency. As a result, the Santa Cruz project could attract more strategic interest from manufacturers.

Critical minerals funding talks continue with partners and EXIM options

Ivanhoe is still negotiating with potential minority partners. It is also engaging project debt providers for longer-term funding. Meanwhile, Export-Import Bank of the United States remains a potential lender for critical minerals. Therefore, the Ivanhoe $200mn Santa Cruz copper project loan may function as bridge financing.

EXIM has funded other US critical minerals initiatives. The article notes EXIM provided a $400mn loan in August 2024 to US Strategic Metals for a Missouri battery metals project. However, Ivanhoe will still need a durable capital stack beyond the two-year term. As a result, offtake-linked finance and strategic equity could become the next steps.

The Metalnomist Commentary

High coupon bridge debt shows copper developers must pay for speed. Meanwhile, lenders will reward projects that prove construction readiness and permitting certainty. Therefore, Ivanhoe should secure strategic partners that value US copper supply resilience.

Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding strengthens African critical minerals pipeline

Ivanhoe Mines

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will inject fresh capital into one of Africa’s most important critical minerals portfolios. Ivanhoe Mines plans to raise $500mn from the Qatar Investment Authority through a 57.5mn share issue. As a result, the Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will support exploration, development and mining across copper, zinc, PGMs and other critical minerals in southern Africa.

Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding underpins growth after Kamoa-Kakula setback

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding gives the Canadian miner balance sheet strength at a sensitive moment. Ivanhoe will issue new shares at C$12 each, equal to about 4pc of its total equity. Therefore, the QIA secures a meaningful strategic foothold in a multi-asset African growth story.

Capital will help offset the impact of weaker guidance at the flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC. The project now expects 370,000–420,000t of copper in concentrate this year. This range is almost 30pc below the initial 520,000–580,000t outlook, after Ivanhoe suspended mining in some areas because of seismic activity. However, Kamoa-Kakula remains one of the world’s lowest-cost, largest-scale copper growth engines.

Funding supports broader African critical minerals portfolio

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will not only stabilise Kamoa-Kakula but also advance other key assets. Ivanhoe intends to channel part of the proceeds into exploration and development of “critical minerals” across its portfolio. This portfolio includes copper, zinc, lead, germanium and platinum group metals.

In the DRC, the Kipushi mine has restarted as a zinc-copper-lead-germanium operation. The asset offers high-grade feed into markets sensitive to supply disruptions and ESG performance. Meanwhile, in South Africa, the Platreef project is moving toward first production in the fourth quarter. Platreef will add large-scale PGM, nickel and copper output, reinforcing Ivanhoe’s exposure to energy transition and automotive catalysts.

By backing this broader platform, the QIA diversifies beyond a single copper asset. Therefore, the Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding represents a long-term bet on Africa as a core supplier of critical minerals. It also highlights the growing role of Gulf sovereign wealth in shaping mining capital flows.

The Metalnomist Commentary

QIA’s entry confirms Ivanhoe’s position as one of the most strategically important miners in the African copper and critical minerals space. The funding cushions near-term production setbacks while keeping long-dated projects like Platreef and Kipushi on track. Market participants should watch how quickly Ivanhoe converts this capital into stable output growth, especially as copper markets tighten and geopolitical competition for African resources intensifies.

Ivanhoe Electric Secures $825mn EXIM Loan Interest for Arizona Copper Project

Ivanhoe Mining

Focus Keyphrase: Ivanhoe Electric copper project

Ivanhoe Electric copper project in Arizona has moved closer to realization with a $825mn financing interest from the US EXIM Bank. The proposed 15-year loan would support the development of the Santa Cruz copper mine, enhancing domestic critical mineral supply chains.

The company stated that additional funding will be explored following the release of its preliminary feasibility study in June. This study is expected to bolster Ivanhoe's efforts to secure further investment and support from public and private stakeholders.

EXIM’s “Make More in America” Backs Strategic Mineral Projects

The EXIM Bank’s commitment falls under the "Make More in America" initiative, aimed at reinforcing US industrial security. The loan would help accelerate production of domestically sourced copper—vital for defense, electrification, and clean energy.

Notably, EXIM has already funded other critical minerals projects, such as the $400mn facility for US Strategic Metals in Missouri. Such projects align with broader national strategies to de-risk supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign raw material imports.

Ivanhoe’s Copper Ambitions Tied to National Security

If completed, the Ivanhoe Electric copper project would become a cornerstone of the US push for self-reliance in key industrial inputs. Copper demand is projected to grow due to renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure needs.

Therefore, Ivanhoe’s Santa Cruz site in Arizona is well-positioned to meet rising demand while benefiting from favorable policy tailwinds. The company emphasized its intent to partner further with public programs and private investors to deliver long-term supply resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s Santa Cruz project reflects Washington’s sharpened focus on domestic critical mineral security. Copper’s strategic importance ensures continued public-private partnerships, especially as electrification reshapes industrial priorities in North America.

Copper Supply Chain Fragility Is Underpriced Despite Price Rally

Ivanhoe

Copper supply chain risk is still being underpriced even after London Metal Exchange prices rallied above $13,000/t, according to Ivanhoe Mines chairman Robert Friedland. He warned that higher prices alone will not quickly unlock new mine investment or solve the operational bottlenecks now shaping copper supply.

The copper supply chain is facing a more complex problem than headline market balances suggest. Friedland pointed to sulphur, sulphuric acid, diesel and other critical inputs as increasingly important constraints for mining operations, especially in Africa.

The copper supply chain is particularly exposed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a large share of production depends on acid leaching. If sulphuric acid availability tightens further, Friedland said about half of the DRC’s low-grade leached copper could be at risk unless higher copper prices offset sharply higher acid costs.

This warning comes as the Middle East conflict affects copper markets indirectly. The immediate threat is not concentrate supply, but sulphur-linked cost inflation that can raise operating costs for solvent extraction and leaching operations.

Sulphuric Acid and Diesel Risks Expose Mining Cost Vulnerability

Sulphuric acid has become a central issue for copper supply because much of the DRC’s production relies on acid leaching. A prolonged disruption in sulphur flows could affect roughly 3mn t/yr of DRC copper output, making the country one of the most exposed parts of the global copper market.

The DRC’s vulnerability is different from that of traditional concentrate producers. Concentrate supply depends on mining, milling, logistics and smelter demand. Leached copper also depends on steady sulphur or sulphuric acid access, which creates another layer of supply-chain risk.

Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula complex is unusually positioned because it produces sulphuric acid as a by-product rather than relying only on external supply. The operation produced more than 100,000t of sulphuric acid in the first quarter of 2026, with annual output expected to reach 600,000-700,000 t/yr once the new smelter is fully ramped up.

That acid production gives Ivanhoe a strategic advantage. It can reduce exposure to imported acid costs while supporting copper output in a market where other DRC producers may face tighter reagent availability.

Diesel is another operational risk. Remote mines depend on diesel for haulage, power generation and logistics, especially where grid access is weak or transport routes are long.

Friedland said highly exposed mining firms should consider securing up to a year of diesel supply. He also argued that the DRC may be less vulnerable than some expect because refined products can arrive through India, Nigeria and southern Africa.

Still, the full operational impact may not yet be visible. Supply-chain shocks often appear first through higher costs, longer lead times and working-capital pressure before they become production losses.

This is why the copper market may be misreading risk. Visible inventories and annual balances can suggest moderate surplus, while the physical supply chain becomes more fragile beneath the surface.

A copper price above $13,000/t helps margins, but it does not immediately create acid, diesel, spare parts, qualified labour or new mine capacity. Mine investment still depends on permitting, capital cost, political risk and long development timelines.

AI, Data Centres and Critical Metals Raise Copper’s Strategic Value

Friedland linked copper’s long-term importance directly to electrification, cooling systems, data centres and artificial intelligence. These sectors are turning copper from a conventional industrial metal into a strategic infrastructure material.

AI data centres need large amounts of power infrastructure. That means more copper for grids, substations, transformers, cooling systems, cabling, backup power and electrical distribution.

The growth of AI also reinforces demand for metals beyond copper. Friedland highlighted gallium, scandium, dysprosium, rhenium and tantalum as thinly traded materials with low liquidity but high industrial dependence.

This is an important market signal. The next phase of industrial competition will not depend only on bulk metals. It will also depend on access to small-volume strategic materials that support semiconductors, aerospace, defence, magnets and high-performance alloys.

Copper remains the anchor metal because it connects electrification, grid expansion, industrial automation and data infrastructure. Friedland described copper as the “king of metals” because no large-scale energy transition can move without it.

However, copper’s strategic value also exposes the market to policy pressure. The US is beginning to understand mining’s national security role more clearly, especially as domestic supply concentration and import dependence become more visible.

Market participants expect moderate global copper surpluses this year, helped by last year’s supply windfall. But US physical balances are expected to remain tight, with the CME-LME arbitrage reopening to encourage flows into the country.

That regional tightness matters. Copper may look balanced globally, while specific markets face procurement pressure because of tariffs, logistics, exchange spreads, domestic manufacturing needs or strategic stockpiling.

The broader lesson is that copper pricing must account for supply-chain resilience, not only mine output. A mine that lacks acid, fuel or logistics capacity cannot deliver metal reliably, even if ore is available.

For investors, this strengthens the value of hard assets with low obsolescence. Mines, smelters, acid plants, power infrastructure and logistics corridors are becoming more valuable as supply chains become less predictable.

For manufacturers, copper procurement is becoming a strategic function. Buyers linked to grids, data centres, defence, cooling systems and energy infrastructure will need more secure supply agreements, not only exposure to exchange prices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Friedland’s warning cuts through the headline copper rally: the market is pricing metal, but not enough supply-chain fragility. Copper’s next constraint may come less from ore availability and more from acid, diesel, logistics and the minor metals needed to build the electrified economy.

Ivanhoe hits 2025 copper, zinc guidance as Kamoa-Kakula smelter ramps

Ivanhoe Zinc mining

Ivanhoe hits 2025 copper, zinc guidance after meeting targets at Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi. The company produced 388,838t of copper in concentrate in 2025. Ivanhoe hits 2025 copper, zinc guidance while positioning 2026 for higher-value sales from on-site smelting.

Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 3 concentrator delivered the operational backbone of 2025 performance. It produced 144,493t of copper in concentrate during the year. Meanwhile, Ivanhoe hits 2025 copper, zinc guidance as the slag concentrator added 3,030t ahead of the smelter’s late-2025 start.

Kamoa-Kakula leans on high throughput and a new smelter model

Kamoa-Kakula processed 6.4mn t of ore in 2025 at Phase 3, beating its 5mn t/yr design rate. Fourth-quarter recovery reached a record 88.2pc. However, underground mining normalisation remains a key variable after May 2025 seismic disruption and ongoing dewatering.

Ivanhoe reaffirmed 2026 copper production guidance of 380,000–420,000t in concentrate. The company also reiterated its 2027 outlook of 500,000–540,000t. Therefore, investors will track whether stable underground access converts processing strength into sustained higher mined output.

Why inventory drawdowns and sulphuric acid matter in 2026

Ivanhoe expects 2026 copper sales to exceed production by about 20,000t as it draws down concentrate inventory. Inventories stood near 37,000t of contained copper before first smelter feed. As a result, inventories are expected to drop toward about 17,000t during 2026.

The smelter has started producing 99.7pc-pure copper anodes at about 500 t/d on average. That pace implies an annualised run-rate near 150,000 t/yr after availability. Meanwhile, sulphuric acid output averages about 1,200 t/d and could reach 700,000 t/yr at steady state, adding a material by-product revenue stream.

Kipushi also delivered a strong 2025, producing 203,168t of zinc in concentrate. Fourth-quarter output hit 61,444t, with December at 22,629t. Therefore, 2026 guidance of 240,000–290,000t signals continued ramp-up, although grid stability remains a constraint.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe is shifting from “concentrate exporter” to “smelter-linked margin capture.” However, the upside depends on consistent underground access and reliable power. If both hold, the value uplift could outpace pure volume growth.

Ivanhoe Mines Secures Copper Exploration Licences in Zambia

Ivanhoe Mines

Zambia Awards Ivanhoe Vast Copper Exploration Area

The Zambian government granted Ivanhoe Mines 7,757km² of new copper exploration licences in its northwestern province. This strategic allocation expands Ivanhoe’s footprint in the Central African Copperbelt, a region rich in copper resources. The licences align with Zambia's goal to become a top global copper producer by 2031.

Partnership Strengthens Following Initial September Agreement

Ivanhoe and Zambia’s Ministry of Mines signed an initial agreement in September to pursue copper development. The formal issuance of licences marks a significant step forward in their collaboration. This partnership reflects Zambia’s commitment to attracting foreign investment in mining and exploration.

Copper Production Key to Zambia’s Economic Ambitions

President Hakainde Hichilema reaffirmed Zambia’s aim to reach over 3 million tonnes of copper production annually by 2031. Copper is central to Zambia’s development plan and energy transition ambitions. New exploration efforts like Ivanhoe’s will be vital to meeting this production milestone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zambia’s proactive approach to awarding exploration rights reinforces its position as a rising copper powerhouse. Ivanhoe’s expansion in the Copperbelt signals growing confidence in the region’s geology and regulatory support. The move could unlock vast new reserves essential for the global energy transition.

Ivanhoe Mines Achieves Record Copper Output at Kamoa-Kakula in October

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a significant milestone in copper production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula mine reached a new record by producing 41,800 tons of copper concentrates, surpassing the previous high of 40,347 tons set in August. This marks an important achievement in the company’s ongoing expansion efforts and positions Kamoa-Kakula as one of the top global copper producers.

Strong Performance from Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 1, 2, and 3 Concentrators

The combined output from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators hit a new high in October, with an impressive peak daily output of 1,720 tons of copper in concentrate on October 12. This daily output is equivalent to an annualized production rate of approximately 580,000 tons of copper. The steady performance of these concentrators underscores the operational success of the project, which continues to deliver strong results despite global economic uncertainties.

The Phase 3 concentrator, which commenced commercial production in August 2024, played a pivotal role in this achievement. With the addition of Phase 3, the mine’s copper production capacity increased from 450,000 tons per year (t/yr) to 600,000 t/yr. In October alone, the Phase 3 concentrator processed 448,478 tons of ore, contributing an additional 10,533 tons of copper-in-concentrate, representing a 42% increase in output compared to September.

Expanding Capacity for Future Growth

By October 31, Kamoa-Kakula’s combined copper production for the year totaled approximately 345,042 tons, further solidifying the project's standing as one of the most productive copper mines globally. Ivanhoe Mines is also making significant strides toward expanding the operation. The company is nearing the completion of the engineering stage for Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 4 expansion, which promises to further boost copper production capacity and establish the mine as a leading supplier in the global copper market.

Conclusion

Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula copper complex continues to achieve impressive milestones, driving growth in both production and capacity. With the successful ramp-up of Phase 3 and the ongoing preparations for Phase 4, the DRC-based mine is positioned for further success in the global copper industry. This achievement not only highlights the company’s operational excellence but also underscores the strategic importance of Kamoa-Kakula in meeting the growing global demand for copper, especially in industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.

Kamoa Kakula Copper Guidance Cut Highlights DRC Supply Recovery Risk

Kamoa Kakula

Kamoa Kakula copper guidance has been lowered for 2026 after seismic shocks forced Ivanhoe Mines to drain and rebuild parts of the complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Canadian miner now expects the asset to produce 290,000–330,000t of copper in 2026, down from its previous target of 380,000–420,000t.

The cut also affects the medium-term outlook. Ivanhoe’s 2027 target of 380,000–420,000t remains below the mine’s pre-shutdown guidance of 500,000–540,000t, although the company still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

Kamoa Kakula copper guidance matters because the project is one of the most important growth assets in the global copper pipeline. Any slower recovery from the complex affects expectations for DRC copper supply at a time when electrification, grid investment and industrial demand continue to support long-term copper consumption.

Seismic Damage Raises Costs and Delays Copper Recovery

Ivanhoe’s revised guidance shows how quickly geotechnical risk can affect large underground copper operations. The need to drain and rebuild the mine has delayed the return to earlier production targets and increased the cost of the recovery path.

Kamoa Kakula’s cash costs are now expected at $2.60–$3.00/lb this year and $2.10–$2.50/lb in 2027. That is higher than earlier expectations of around $2/lb, reflecting the combined impact of disruption, rebuilding work and inflation across key inputs.

The wider DRC copper belt remains one of the fastest-growing copper regions in the world. The country lifted output by 10% to 3.4mn t last year, but rapid growth still depends on reliable acid supply, power, transport and mine-site execution.

Sulphuric Acid and Lobito Rail Shape DRC Copper Economics

Sulphur and sulphuric acid costs remain a major pressure point for DRC copper producers. A squeeze in Middle East sulphur flows pushed delivered sulphur prices close to $900/t into Kolwezi, increasing acid costs for leaching operations.

Ivanhoe’s new smelter could reduce some of this exposure. The smelter began producing anodes and sulphuric acid late last year and could add up to 700,000 t/yr of acid once it reaches steady operation.

Transport capacity is another constraint. The first low-carbon anodes moved out of Kamoa Kakula through the Lobito corridor in February, but available rail freight still falls short of the complex’s full logistics needs.

These bottlenecks show that DRC copper growth depends on more than orebody quality. Acid integration, rail access and underground transport capacity will decide how quickly Kamoa Kakula can return to higher output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s guidance cut shows that the copper market cannot treat DRC growth as risk-free supply. Kamoa Kakula remains a world-class asset, but seismic recovery, acid costs and logistics will determine how fast its tonnes return to market.

Ivanhoe Expects Kakula Copper Output to Drop in 2025

Ivanhoe Mines

Seismic Impact on Copper Production

Ivanhoe Mines has revised its 2025 copper production guidance at the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company now expects output between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tonnes, down sharply from its earlier forecast of 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes. This adjustment follows seismic activity in May that forced a temporary suspension of underground operations.

Kakula, part of the joint-owned Kamoa-Kakula complex, had delivered a record 437,061 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2024. However, recent disruptions and subsequent water inflow management have cut near-term production expectations. Ivanhoe has stabilized water levels with added pumping capacity and restarted operations on the mine’s western side on 7 June, with plans to restart the eastern side later this year.

Outlook and Smelter Launch

Ivanhoe anticipates dewatering activities on the eastern mine zone will continue through the fourth quarter, while processing plants operate at reduced capacity. The project’s phase 1 and 2 concentrators are currently running at about 50% utilization, processing ore from surface stockpiles. Output should gradually recover as underground mining resumes across the complex.

Meanwhile, the company expects to commission its copper smelter in September, with first anode production scheduled for October. This development marks a significant milestone for Ivanhoe, as vertical integration could provide greater value capture and stability amid production disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s revised copper outlook highlights the operational risks inherent in mining in geologically complex regions. While short-term production losses are significant, the launch of its smelter may partially offset the impact by adding value downstream. Investors will closely watch whether recovery efforts align with timelines as global copper demand remains robust.

DRC Copper Output Growth Accelerates as Cobalt Exports Collapse

DRC Copper mining

DRC copper output growth strengthened in 2025 as major producers lifted volumes across the country. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 3.4mn t of copper in 2025, up from 3.1mn t in 2024. That marks a 10pc annual increase. As a result, DRC copper output growth remains one of the most important supply stories in the global copper market.

This increase matters because the DRC is already one of the world’s key copper jurisdictions. Higher output from CMOC, Ivanhoe, and other major operators supported the national result. The country is becoming even more important to global copper supply. Therefore, DRC copper production 2025 confirms the DRC’s rising weight in the energy and industrial metals chain.

CMOC led the market last year. Its Tenke Fungurume mine produced 519,000t of copper, while Kisanfu added 228,000t. Kamoa-Kakula, the joint venture between Ivanhoe and Zijin, produced 400,000t. Consequently, DRC copper output growth is being driven by a concentrated group of very large operations.

DRC Copper Production 2025 Shows Strong Mine-Level Momentum

DRC copper production 2025 reflects strong mine-level performance from the country’s biggest operators. Large-scale projects continued to deliver higher volumes even as the market remained focused on geopolitical risk and resource nationalism. That gives the DRC a stronger position in global copper negotiations. As a result, copper is becoming an even more strategic pillar of the country’s mining economy.

This growth also improves the DRC’s relevance to western supply chains. Copper demand remains closely tied to electrification, grid buildout, and industrial investment. Countries and companies looking for large-scale copper supply cannot ignore the DRC. Therefore, DRC copper output growth is not only a mining statistic. It is a strategic supply-chain signal.

Congo Cobalt Export Ban Has Changed the Other Side of the Metals Story

Congo cobalt export ban created a very different picture for the country’s other key battery metal. Cobalt shipments fell by almost 80pc in 2025 because of the export restriction. The government imposed the ban after global oversupply drove cobalt prices to record lows. As a result, the DRC used policy intervention to support value rather than pure export volume.

This matters because the DRC remains the world’s largest cobalt producer. Cobalt is still important for electric vehicles and electronics, even as battery chemistry trends evolve. The government has since moved toward a quota system after the export ban. Therefore, Congo cobalt export ban shows that the DRC is willing to manage supply more actively when market conditions weaken.

The US-DRC minerals agreement adds another strategic layer. Officials said the December cooperation deal could improve investor confidence in minerals exploration. The agreement gives the United States preferential status to source critical minerals from the DRC and process them for global markets. Consequently, the DRC is trying to combine stronger copper growth with deeper geopolitical relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC now presents two very different metals stories at once. Copper is expanding through giant mines, while cobalt is being managed through policy restraint. That combination shows the country is no longer just a resource exporter. It is becoming a more active force in shaping how critical minerals reach the global market.

Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance targets 540,000t in 2027

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance points to higher volumes as operations regain stability. Ivanhoe Mines expects 380,000–420,000t of copper in concentrate during 2026. It then targets 500,000–540,000t in 2027 with stronger plant availability. Meanwhile, the Kamoa-Kakula complex remains on track for revised 2025 guidance after strong January–September output.

Dewatering progress reduces near-term operational risk

Dewatering at the flooded Kakula mine is advancing faster than planned. The company has completed 70pc of western-side water removal work. It has also completed 60pc on the eastern side. As a result, crews have made more than 13.4km of underground workings safe. This includes 4.6km that teams dewatered and reconditioned.

Ivanhoe expects full western dewatering by the end of January. Eastern dewatering will continue into 2026. However, deeper flooded zones sit below current pumping infrastructure. The company says those zones do not block the ramp-up path.

Smelter start-up and inventory drawdown reshape 2026 sales

The 500,000t/yr direct-to-blister smelter shifts the site’s copper sales profile. The company has confirmed the smelter’s first heat-up. It expects first concentrate feed before year-end. Therefore, the smelter will increasingly absorb internal concentrate from three concentrators.

Copper sales should exceed 2026 output because inventories will fall. The operation plans to draw down about 20,000t of surplus concentrate. Inventory at the smelter site stood near 37,000t before start-up. It should trend toward about 17,000t during 2026 as sales rise.

Production stability remains the core lever for the medium-term plan. The complex targets a run-rate near 550,000t/yr after full underground access returns. An integrated life-of-mine plan should arrive by the end of Q1 2026. Meanwhile, the update will include all three concentrators and a Phase 4 expansion scenario.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance reflects a classic recovery trade with operational execution risk. Meanwhile, smelter integration can lift margins if concentrate flows stay consistent. Therefore, 2026 will test whether dewatering progress translates into sustained processing stability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Kamoa-Kakula copper production rises in 2Q as Ivanhoe locks in offtake

Ivanhoe Mines

Kamoa-Kakula copper production increased 11% year on year in the second quarter. Kamoa-Kakula copper production reached 112,009 tonnes of copper in concentrate. Operations resumed in early June after a 20 May seismic event. Ivanhoe cut 2025 guidance to 370,000–420,000 tonnes. Kamoa-Kakula copper production for the first half totaled 245,127 tonnes.

June output validated stable operations across three concentrators. The site produced 28,147 tonnes in June alone. The on-site 500,000-tonne-per-year smelter will start in early September. First 99.7% copper anode is scheduled for October.

Smelter start-up and offtake de-risk cash flows

Trafigura signed a three-year offtake for 20% of anode output. The deal includes a $200 million prepayment facility. Citic Metal and Gold Mountains secured the remaining 80% earlier this year. As a result, anode sales have full coverage during ramp-up.

In-country smelting should reduce transport and TC/RC exposure. The smelter also improves working capital turns. Therefore, Ivanhoe gains greater margin control across the value chain.

Recovery upgrades and new ore underpin 2026 growth

Project 95 targets a recovery lift from 87% to 95% by early 2026. The project is about 50% complete and on schedule. A new eastern mining area will add high-grade ore by the second quarter of 2026. These upgrades support volumes and lower unit costs.

Portfolio updates complement the copper outlook. Kipushi produced 41,788 tonnes of zinc in the quarter. Platreef remains on track for first PGM production in the fourth quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe is pairing operational resilience with commercial de-risking. The smelter and offtakes tighten cash generation while recovery gains add structural margin. Watch guidance delivery, smelter ramp curves, and ore-quality cadence into 2026.

Ivanhoe Mines Confirms Strong Start to 2025 at DRC Copper and Zinc Operations

Ivanhoe Mines

Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi mines show robust early output as ramp-up continues toward full-year targets.

Ivanhoe Mines, the Canadian mining firm, reported that both its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are firmly on track to meet their 2025 production targets. Strong output in January and February suggests continued momentum across both flagship assets.

At Kamoa-Kakula, copper production reached 45,477 tonnes in January and 40,849 tonnes in February. Notably, during the final week of February alone, output hit 11,122 tonnes, equating to an annualized rate of over 578,000 tonnes—the upper end of Ivanhoe’s 2025 guidance of 520,000–580,000 tonnes.

Project 95 Expansion and Zinc Ramp-Up Progress

Ivanhoe confirmed that Project 95, which will add 30,000 tonnes/year of copper capacity, remains on schedule for completion in Q1 2026. This expansion will further boost Kamoa-Kakula’s long-term output as global copper demand continues to rise.

Meanwhile, the Kipushi zinc mine, which restarted operations in November 2024, posted record production of 16,063 tonnes in January and 11,903 tonnes in February, following a December high of 14,900 tonnes. Kipushi reached a nameplate milling rate of 2,000 tonnes per day in late February and is quickly approaching its 2025 target range of 180,000–240,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate.

Ivanhoe projects Kipushi will reach 250,000 tonnes in 2026 as ramp-up activities continue and processing efficiency improves.

These results affirm Ivanhoe’s position as a top-tier copper and zinc producer in one of the world’s richest mineral belts, with infrastructure and expansion plans already underway.

Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula Phase Three Reaches Commercial Production, Elevating Copper Output

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canada-based mining firm, announced on Monday that the phase three concentrator at its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has officially reached commercial production. This milestone boosts the mine's copper production capacity to a staggering 600,000 tons per year, solidifying its position as the world’s third-largest copper mining complex.

Since initiating production, the phase three concentrator has already produced over 11,000 tons of copper concentrate, with the first sale occurring in July. In that same month, Kamoa-Kakula recorded its highest monthly output to date, producing 35,941 tons of copper.

The newly operational concentrator is expected to contribute approximately 150,000 tons per year to the mine's total copper output. This addition, combined with the production from phases one and two, raises the mine's capacity from 450,000 to 600,000 tons annually.

Remarkably, the phase three concentrator was completed ahead of schedule at the end of May and is engineered to process 5 million tons of copper ore per year. Looking forward, Ivanhoe Mines’ founder, Robert Friedland, revealed plans for a phase four expansion at Kamoa-Kakula, aiming to further scale production.

In 2023, the Kamoa-Kakula mine produced 393,551 tons of copper concentrate, marking an 18 percent increase from the previous year.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Pathfinder Tonopah Secures $896mn EXIM Loan Interest for Copper Project in Nevada

Copper Project in Nevada

Financing to Boost US Copper Supply Chain

US mine developer Pathfinder Tonopah has received a letter of interest from the US Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for up to $896 million in financing to advance its Nevada copper-molybdenum project. The potential funding would support construction of mining and processing facilities, enabling the company to scale operations and strengthen domestic copper production capacity.

The project is expected to produce over 463 million pounds of copper cathode in its first 12 years of operation. This substantial output aligns with growing US demand for copper, driven by renewable energy expansion, electric vehicle infrastructure, and grid modernization.

Strategic Role in National Security and Supply Resilience

The potential loan falls under EXIM’s “Make More in America” initiative, which aims to fortify domestic supply chains for sectors critical to national security. Copper’s role as an essential industrial metal in electrical systems, defense technologies, and clean energy makes it a strategic focus.

Pathfinder Tonopah joins a growing list of critical mineral developers receiving EXIM support, including Ivanhoe Electric ($825mn loan in April 2024) and US Strategic Metals ($400mn loan in August 2024). These investments reflect a broader policy shift toward securing reliable domestic sources of key industrial inputs.

Outlook for Nevada’s Copper-Molybdenum Development

While specific loan terms have not been disclosed, the scale of potential financing underscores the project’s significance for US resource independence. Nevada’s favorable mining environment and existing infrastructure position Pathfinder Tonopah to fast-track development once funding is secured.

If completed as planned, the mine could not only meet domestic copper needs but also contribute to global market stability, reducing reliance on imports from politically sensitive regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The scale of EXIM’s interest signals strong federal commitment to reshoring critical mineral supply chains. If finalized, this financing could mark a pivotal moment for US copper independence, positioning Nevada as a strategic hub in the energy transition.

Smelter Ramp-Up Delayed Amid Seismic Setback

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines has withdrawn its 2025 copper production guidance due to seismic disruptions at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The underground operations at Kakula were initially suspended on May 18, resumed briefly, and were suspended again on May 25 after further seismic activity. This operational volatility prompted Ivanhoe to review its previously announced copper production range of 520,000–580,000 tonnes for the year.

Water Inflow Escalates, Surface Operations Continue

The seismic events also increased water inflow at the site, necessitating new dewatering infrastructure to sustain future mining activities. As a result, the company also suspended its ramp-up schedule for the newly built direct-to-blister smelter, which was slated to produce its first copper anode in July. While underground mining is halted, surface concentrators remain active by processing stockpiled ore, and the nearby Kamoa mine remains unaffected.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Seismic risk now emerges as a critical operational challenge for copper mining in Central Africa. Ivanhoe’s decision highlights how geological instability can derail even well-planned projects. Investors and analysts will be watching closely as this event affects both copper market expectations and smelting capacity timelines.