Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance targets 540,000t in 2027

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance points to higher volumes as operations regain stability. Ivanhoe Mines expects 380,000–420,000t of copper in concentrate during 2026. It then targets 500,000–540,000t in 2027 with stronger plant availability. Meanwhile, the Kamoa-Kakula complex remains on track for revised 2025 guidance after strong January–September output.

Dewatering progress reduces near-term operational risk

Dewatering at the flooded Kakula mine is advancing faster than planned. The company has completed 70pc of western-side water removal work. It has also completed 60pc on the eastern side. As a result, crews have made more than 13.4km of underground workings safe. This includes 4.6km that teams dewatered and reconditioned.

Ivanhoe expects full western dewatering by the end of January. Eastern dewatering will continue into 2026. However, deeper flooded zones sit below current pumping infrastructure. The company says those zones do not block the ramp-up path.

Smelter start-up and inventory drawdown reshape 2026 sales

The 500,000t/yr direct-to-blister smelter shifts the site’s copper sales profile. The company has confirmed the smelter’s first heat-up. It expects first concentrate feed before year-end. Therefore, the smelter will increasingly absorb internal concentrate from three concentrators.

Copper sales should exceed 2026 output because inventories will fall. The operation plans to draw down about 20,000t of surplus concentrate. Inventory at the smelter site stood near 37,000t before start-up. It should trend toward about 17,000t during 2026 as sales rise.

Production stability remains the core lever for the medium-term plan. The complex targets a run-rate near 550,000t/yr after full underground access returns. An integrated life-of-mine plan should arrive by the end of Q1 2026. Meanwhile, the update will include all three concentrators and a Phase 4 expansion scenario.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance reflects a classic recovery trade with operational execution risk. Meanwhile, smelter integration can lift margins if concentrate flows stay consistent. Therefore, 2026 will test whether dewatering progress translates into sustained processing stability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.