Renewables Energy Security Message Shapes Cop 31 Climate Agenda

Renewables energy

Renewables energy security is becoming a central policy message ahead of the Cop 31 climate summit, as Turkey and Australia argue that fossil fuels no longer guarantee stable energy supply. The two countries said stronger decarbonisation, electrification and alternative energy sources are now essential to national resilience.

Turkey will host Cop 31 in Antalya, while Australia will lead climate negotiations. Both countries are preparing the summit against the backdrop of energy market disruption caused by the war in the Mideast Gulf and shipping interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Renewables energy security is now being framed not only as a climate issue, but also as a sovereignty issue. Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum said countries should invest in clean energy sources, including renewables, hydrogen and ammonia, to support stable and independent development.

The message reflects a wider shift in energy policy. Fossil fuels once dominated energy security thinking because they offered high-density supply and established infrastructure. But recent geopolitical shocks have shown that oil, gas and coal supply chains can be exposed to sanctions, shipping blockages and regional conflict.

Fossil Fuel Risk Pushes Electrification Up the Policy Agenda

The Mideast Gulf energy crisis has strengthened the argument that fossil fuel dependence creates vulnerability. Supply routes can be disrupted, prices can spike and importing countries can quickly face inflation, industrial cost pressure and energy security concerns.

Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen said the crisis creates an opportunity to show that energy reliability, sovereignty and security can move together with strong decarbonisation. His message was clear: doubling down on fossil fuels is not the answer.

That argument gives renewables energy security a sharper industrial meaning. Wind and solar resources cannot be sanctioned in the same way as seaborne fossil fuels. They also reduce exposure to imported fuel prices once infrastructure is built.

Electrification will therefore become more important in the Cop 31 discussion. Germany has already pushed for a stronger debate on how countries can advance electrification before the summit.

This matters for metals and manufacturing. Electrification requires more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, rare earth magnets, batteries, power electronics, transformers, grid equipment and storage systems. The shift away from fossil fuels therefore increases demand for industrial materials that support clean power systems.

Hydrogen and ammonia also remain part of Turkey’s energy transition vision. These fuels could support hard-to-abate sectors, industrial heat, shipping, fertilisers and long-duration energy storage, but they require large amounts of renewable electricity and new infrastructure.

The policy direction is not only about replacing fuels. It is about rebuilding energy systems around grids, storage, clean molecules and domestic generation capacity.

Cop 31 Could Turn Energy Security Into a Decarbonisation Driver

Cop 31 is expected to revisit the global transition away from fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28 in 2023, while developed countries agreed at Cop 29 to provide $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035.

Turkey is now urging countries to fulfil earlier commitments on finance and energy. Kurum also called on countries that have not submitted updated nationally determined contributions to do so.

This creates pressure before Cop 31. Around 43 countries still need to submit climate plans, according to Kurum. Without credible national plans, the global transition risks remaining a statement rather than an implementation programme.

Australia pointed to three processes already under way before Cop 31. These include the Belem roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the global implementation accelerator and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C.

The challenge will be coordination. Countries have already agreed on high-level climate direction, but implementation remains uneven. Clean energy investment, grid expansion, permitting, financing and critical mineral supply all need to move faster.

For resource markets, the message is clear. Renewables energy security will not reduce dependence on supply chains. It will shift dependence from fossil fuel flows toward metals, minerals, equipment and industrial manufacturing capacity.

That creates a new form of energy security risk. Countries that build renewable power but lack access to copper, rare earths, battery metals, transformers, power electronics or grid equipment may still face strategic exposure.

Cop 31 could therefore strengthen demand for policies that connect climate action with supply-chain resilience. Energy transition goals will require not only emissions targets, but also mineral security, manufacturing investment and infrastructure deployment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The renewables energy security argument marks a turning point in climate politics. The next energy security race will be fought through grids, storage, critical minerals and clean manufacturing capacity, not only through control of fossil fuel routes.

Soaring Renewables Growth Still Falls Short of COP28 Target, Varies Widely by Region

Renewable energy deployment is speeding up at an “unprecedented rate” but still falls short of what it will take to hit the tripling of global capacity that countries committed to at last year’s United Nations climate summit, the International Renewable Energy Agency warns in an assessment published earlier this month.

That’s in spite of renewable energy producers installing 473 gigawatts of new capacity last year, accounting for 85% of the new electricity entering the global system, Canary Media reports.

Renewable energy capacity grew 14% last year, contributing to a 10% compound annual growth rate between 2017 and 2023, IRENA says. But it’ll take annual growth of 16.4% to meet countries’ 2030 deadline to triple the amount of renewable energy available around the world by 2030.

“Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent,” said IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera. “Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale” unless countries want to “face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target,” thereby putting the climate goals in the 2015 Paris agreement at risk.

The commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of annual energy efficiency improvements by 2030 was one of the signature results of last year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai. “But IRENA’s analysis found that even if renewables continue to be deployed at the current rate over the next seven years, the world will fall 13.5% short of the target to triple renewables to 11.2 terawatts,” Climate Home News reports.

“Today’s report is a wake-up call for the entire world: while we are making progress, we are off track to meet the global goal,” said COP28 President and fossil fuel CEO Sultan Al Jaber. “We need to increase the pace and scale of development.”

Decarbonization Divide

La Camera added that the top-line numbers obscure “ongoing patterns of concentration in geography” that “threaten to exacerbate the decarbonization divide and pose a significant barrier to achieving the tripling target.” The numbers show Asia leading the world in renewable power generation followed by North America, and South America recording an “impressive jump”, but Africa lagging at just 3.5% annual growth due to a persistent and dire lack of climate finance.

Global Renewables Alliance CEO Bruce Douglas echoed the concern about the imbalances in deployment between regions. “We shouldn’t be celebrating,” he said. “This growth is nowhere near enough and it’s not in the right places."

Even with the aggregate growth data for Asia, Climate Home says, analysis by the REN21 international policy group shows the continent as a whole—excluding renewables powerhouse China—accounting for less than 18% of new capacity additions in 2023.

“The justice piece is huge and too often overlooked,” Douglas said, with IRENA reporting that Africa has seen less than 2% of global renewables investment over the last two decades. “That’s not acceptable in terms of an equitable transition,” he declared.

In the Financial Times, human geographer Brett Christophers of the University of Uppsala’s Institute for Housing and Urban Research cautions against mistaking China’s big numbers on renewable energy deployment for a global trend.

“The view that the world is finally winning in the energy transition away from fossil fuels is increasingly prominent,” he writes. But “comforting as this take may be, we need to throw cold water over it. We are emphatically not yet winning, and it is time to stop pretending that we are.”

‘Hugely Misleading’

It’s “hugely misleading” to look at the global growth rate for renewables when “there is not one single energy transition but a series of regional transitions of widely varying form, pace and scope,” Christophers adds. That matters because “we need rapid growth in renewable investment everywhere,” in every region of the world.

But at present, “the outsized materiality of one—China’s—means global figures veil more than they reveal. They currently look impressive because, and only because, China’s do.”

Elsewhere, the New York Times reports that the U.S. oil industry is still booming, with high prices and recent growth in demand translating into higher profits, even as renewable energy and electric vehicles surge. “That the price and demand for oil have been so strong suggests that the shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles will take longer and be more bumpy than some climate activists and world leaders once hoped,” the Times writes.

While the industry has gained from high prices brought on by the COVID-19 recovery and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Times lists other factors that have improved oil companies’ prospects: under pressure from Wall Street to offer better financial returns: they’ve become more hesitant to go into debt to pay for new growth, while laying off workers and automating more of their operations. The result is that oil and gas operators in the lower 48 U.S. states have generated US$485 billion in free cash flow since 2021, compared to $140 billion in the previous decade.

“The environmental consequences of the oil industry’s financial turnaround are mixed,” the Times writes, citing Brookings Institution Director Samantha Gross. “Producing and burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases that are warming the planet. But higher oil prices are also making cleaner forms of energy more attractive.”

Global Energy Investment to Reach $3.3 Trillion in 2025, Led by Clean Energy

IEA(International_Energy_Agency)

Clean Energy Spending Doubles Fossil Fuel Investment

Global energy investment is forecast to hit a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with two-thirds allocated to clean energy technologies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This marks a 2% real-term increase from 2024, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

The IEA expects $2.2 trillion to be invested in renewables, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, energy efficiency, and electrification. In comparison, fossil fuel investment is projected at $1.1 trillion. The agency attributes the surge in clean energy spending to emission reduction goals, industrial policy incentives, energy security concerns, and the competitiveness of electricity-based solutions.

Energy security remains a primary driver of investment growth. While some investors are cautious about new project approvals, the IEA notes minimal disruption to existing developments.

Electricity Sector Investment Surges While Fossil Fuels Decline

The “age of electricity” is shaping global capital flows, with the power sector expected to attract $1.5 trillion in 2025. Solar power will lead the charge, drawing $450 billion alone. However, grid investment, while reaching a record $400 billion, is struggling to keep pace with soaring power demand.

Conversely, fossil fuel supply investment is expected to fall 2% — the first drop since 2020. Upstream oil spending will decline 6% to about $420 billion, while gas investment will also retreat amid price drops, higher operating costs, tariffs, and oversupply concerns. Coal investment will continue to grow, though at a slower 4% annual rate, driven largely by China and India.

Regional Shifts and Policy Impacts

China remains the largest global energy investor, with its share of clean energy investment rising from 25% a decade ago to nearly one-third today. In the US, investment in renewables and low-emission fuels is set to plateau as supportive policies wane. Meanwhile, oil and gas spending is increasingly concentrated in resource-rich Middle Eastern nations.

Spending on low-emissions fuels is projected to hit a record in 2025 but will stay below $30 billion, with projects vulnerable to policy uncertainty. The IEA warns that regional disparities in policy and market dynamics could influence the pace of the clean energy transition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s projection underscores the accelerating momentum of the clean energy transition, even amid economic headwinds. While record spending on renewables and electricity infrastructure marks progress, bottlenecks in grid expansion and regional policy uncertainties could challenge the pace of change. Investors and policymakers will need to address these gaps to secure long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

EU Russian Energy Imports Ban Holds Firm Despite New Energy Crisis

EU Russian Energy

EU Russian energy imports will not return under the European Commission’s current policy direction, even as the bloc faces renewed energy pressure from the Middle East conflict. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said Brussels will continue phasing out Russian gas and still plans to cut Russian oil imports.

EU Russian energy imports have become a strategic red line for Brussels. The Commission argues that returning to Russian supply would recreate the dependency that exposed Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

EU Russian energy imports are again being debated because higher oil and gas costs are hitting parts of the European economy. However, Brussels is treating the current disruption as a reason to accelerate energy diversification, not reopen Russian supply channels.

The position links energy security directly to industrial resilience. Europe now wants less exposure to both Russian energy and Middle East supply disruption, while shifting more demand toward domestic, renewable and alternative energy systems.

Russian Oil Phase-Out Remains Politically Sensitive

The Commission has not yet presented new legal measures to phase out Russian oil imports. It delayed a proposal originally scheduled for 15 April and has not set a new publication date.

Still, Brussels says a permanent Russian oil ban remains a priority. That matters because Hungary and Slovakia remain the only EU importers of Russian crude, keeping pipeline supply through Druzhba at the centre of political negotiations.

Hungary had opposed blocking Russian oil imports under Viktor Orban. His successor, Peter Magyar, has acknowledged that Hungary cannot end Druzhba imports immediately, but has pledged to eliminate dependence on Russian energy by 2035.

Slovakia has also linked Russian oil flows to its support for further sanctions against Moscow. Bratislava has indicated it could support another sanctions package once Russian oil reaches Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline.

This shows the difficulty of EU energy policy. The bloc wants a unified strategic position, but member states still have different infrastructure, refinery configurations and supply dependencies.

The Druzhba pipeline therefore remains more than a crude route. It is a political lever in sanctions, energy security and Ukraine-related financing discussions.

Energy Crisis Reinforces Clean Supply Strategy

The current Middle East energy crisis has intensified the EU’s focus on supply security. Jorgensen said the disruption is comparable in seriousness to the 1973 oil crisis and the 2022 Russian energy shock.

The Commission expects LNG prices to take years to stabilise. It also expects oil capacity to need months to normalise after the war ends, showing that energy disruption can outlast military events.

This strengthens the EU case for domestic and clean energy. The Commission wants to reduce import dependence through renewables, electrification, storage, hydrogen and alternative fuels.

For industry, the implication is clear. Europe’s energy security strategy will increasingly affect metals, grids, chemicals, transport fuels and clean technology supply chains.

Lower Russian energy dependence also raises demand for infrastructure. Europe will need more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, transformers, batteries, renewable equipment and grid materials to replace fossil fuel exposure with domestic power systems.

The policy challenge is execution. Europe must cut Russian dependence while managing fuel prices, refinery supply, LNG volatility, industrial competitiveness and political pressure from member states.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s refusal to return to Russian energy shows that energy security has become an industrial sovereignty issue. The next test is whether the EU can replace fossil dependency with real domestic energy infrastructure fast enough to protect industry from repeated external shocks.

Realistic energy transition reshapes investor expectations at Appec

Energy Transition

The realistic energy transition is replacing idealistic narratives at the Appec conference in Singapore. Speakers describe a pragmatic balance between climate ambitions and the continued necessity of hydrocarbons. This realistic energy transition framing is reshaping how capital flows into oil, gas and renewables. Investors now demand clearer returns, better risk control, and credible decarbonisation pathways.

Investors pivot toward pragmatic capital allocation

Investors at Appec emphasise that capital for hydrocarbons and renewables requires certainty and disciplined governance. JP Morgan’s head of natural resources highlights a correction in extreme investor sentiment. He argues that energy markets must recognise hydrocarbon demand while advancing emissions reduction technologies. Therefore, the realistic energy transition involves flexible timelines rather than rigid, politically driven deadlines.

Industrial customers also face deep uncertainty over costs, technology choices and long term competitiveness. Gentari’s chief executive stresses that energy transition strategies must protect both households and export industries. He argues that companies should avoid decarbonisation paths that raise power prices excessively. As a result, many boardrooms now test scenarios for carbon prices, subsidies and renewable volatility.

Gas, renewables and resources in a realistic energy transition

Speakers underline that realistic energy transition roadmaps must reflect domestic resource endowments. Developers cannot build wind projects efficiently in regions with weak wind resources. They must instead align project pipelines with available solar, hydro, biomass or storage potential. Consequently, policymakers increasingly pair technology neutral auctions with strict delivery milestones and performance standards.

Natural gas emerges as a strategic bridge fuel within this pragmatic framework. Gas may gradually shift from baseload generation toward balancing intermittent renewables. However, long term gas demand will still depend on carbon pricing, methane regulation and electrification speed. Project developers therefore focus on derisking execution, ensuring plants meet budget, schedule and emissions targets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The debates at Appec signal a maturing phase for the global energy transition narrative. For metals and fuels alike, investors will reward projects that combine cash flow resilience with credible decarbonisation. Market participants should expect policy support to favour realistic energy transition pathways over ambitious but fragile promises.

EU Unveils Draft Plan to Cut Soaring Energy Costs and Safeguard Industrial Competitiveness

The European Commission

European Commission Pushes for Tax Reforms and Clean Energy to Address Rising Electricity Prices

The European Commission has introduced a draft strategy to combat the EU's growing energy cost burden and avoid de-industrialisation. The plan, released in a draft document, stresses that Europe must narrow its energy price gap with global competitors to retain industrial strength.

Much of the proposal consists of non-binding recommendations, especially on energy taxation. The Commission highlights fossil fuel dependence, high network costs, and heavy taxation as key drivers of price volatility. These factors, officials warn, are making EU industries less competitive on the global stage.

Tax Relief and Market Reforms at the Core of the Strategy

To reduce the electricity cost burden, the EU proposes lowering taxes on power for both energy-intensive industries and households. The plan encourages EU member states to cut electricity taxes to nearly zero. Officials also want to reduce or remove non-energy components from energy bills.

The Commission plans to revive the long-stalled effort to revise the 2003 Energy Taxation Directive, though this would require unanimous agreement across all member states. Additionally, a new Energy Union Task Force will lead efforts to create a fully integrated EU energy market in 2024.

Other key initiatives include an electrification action plan, a digitalisation roadmap, and a heating and cooling strategy. These aim to streamline energy systems, reduce consumption, and accelerate the shift to clean energy.

Flexibility, Renewables, and Future-Proofing the Grid

The draft strategy also promotes consumer empowerment, urging member states to remove barriers to supplier switching, improve energy efficiency, and support renewable energy communities. The Commission will propose measures to decouple retail electricity prices from gas prices, which have remained volatile since 2022.

By 2026, the EU plans to issue guidance on combining Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Contracts for Difference (CfDs). The Commission is also considering new rules for forward markets, hedging instruments, and a possible legally binding tariff methodology for network charges.

In terms of infrastructure, the EU will push for faster permitting of new energy projects and encourage demand response and energy storage to improve system flexibility. Officials estimate that replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity could save 50% on power costs. Electrification and efficiency upgrades would save another 30%, and flexibility improvements could deliver 20% more savings.

As part of long-term planning, the Commission is exploring LNG supply deals and infrastructure investments to stabilize prices and ensure energy security across the bloc.

IEA Ministerial Meeting Split Over Energy Transition as US and Europe Diverge

IEA

The IEA ministerial meeting split over energy transition exposed a deeper divide between the United States and Europe. The agency issued a chair’s summary instead of a full communique after ministers failed to reach common language. That change signaled that disagreement was too wide for a unified closing text. As a result, the IEA ministerial meeting split over energy transition became the main outcome of the Paris gathering.

The wording of the summary showed that divide clearly. References to climate, emissions, and renewables were qualified and limited. The document also reduced the emphasis on climate language compared with past meetings. Therefore, the IEA energy transition divide is now visible not only in speeches, but also in official meeting language.

The US pushed hardest against the agency’s current direction. Energy secretary Chris Wright criticized the IEA’s transition focus and warned that Washington could increase pressure for reform. Europe answered from a different angle. European officials defended the transition as a matter of energy security rather than climate messaging alone. Consequently, the debate shifted from whether transition matters to why it matters.

Energy Security and Electrification Became Europe’s Main Response

Energy security and electrification became the core European response to the US challenge. French officials argued that dependence on fossil fuels leaves Europe strategically exposed. They presented electrification as the practical answer to that vulnerability. This framing moved the transition debate toward resilience, sovereignty, and industrial stability.

That shift is important because it changes the political language of the transition. Europe is no longer relying only on emissions reduction as its lead argument. It is increasingly presenting clean energy as a security tool. Meanwhile, the US is pushing for a narrower institutional focus on traditional supply concerns. That contrast explains why the IEA ministerial meeting split over energy transition became so difficult to bridge.

The IEA itself now faces a delicate balancing act. Fatih Birol did not confirm whether the agency will keep its net-zero scenario in the next outlook. However, he said the agency will continue examining emissions across its scenarios. That suggests the IEA is trying to preserve analytical breadth while managing growing political pressure.

One area still produced agreement. Ministers supported a joint declaration on critical mineral supply security. That result matters because it shows common ground still exists where energy, industry, and strategic supply chains overlap. Therefore, even as the IEA energy transition divide widens, critical minerals may remain the most workable area for international cooperation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This meeting showed that the global energy debate has entered a more political phase. The transition is no longer discussed only as a climate pathway. It is now a contest over security, industrial policy, and institutional control. The IEA will likely remain central to that struggle, especially as critical minerals and electrification move closer to the heart of energy strategy.

Brazil Indonesia Energy and Mining Partnership Targets Cleaner Growth

Brazil Indonesia Energy and Mining

Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership is moving from basic trade to strategic cooperation in fuels and minerals. The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to coordinate energy, mining and power grid initiatives as they seek lower-carbon growth. As a result, the Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership is evolving into a broader platform for decarbonisation, investment and technology exchange.

MoU extends Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership into hydrocarbons and power

The memorandum of understanding covers crude, natural gas, renewable power, energy efficiency and power grid cooperation. Brazil and Indonesia will also collaborate on mineral sustainability, signalling interest in responsible mining and critical raw materials. Therefore, the Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership now stretches from upstream hydrocarbons to electricity networks and metals value chains.

Bilateral trade between Brazil and Indonesia already totals about $6.2bn a year. Brazil mainly ships soymeal, crude, sugar and molasses, while Indonesia exports tallow, vegetable fats and vehicle parts. However, the new deal could gradually shift the mix toward more energy and mining technology, services and project-level collaboration.

Biofuel leadership strengthens Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership

Both countries see biofuels as a cornerstone of their energy transition. Indonesia has moved to a 40pc biodiesel blend in fossil diesel, cutting oil import needs. Meanwhile, Brazil already runs a 15pc biodiesel blend and a 30pc ethanol blend in road fuels.

These aggressive blending mandates create robust demand for feedstocks, refining technology and logistics. As a result, the Brazil Indonesia energy and mining partnership can link biofuel know-how with wider mining and infrastructure cooperation. Over time, joint projects in green hydrogen, advanced biofuels and grid upgrades could emerge from this policy alignment.

The focus on mineral sustainability also suggests potential cooperation on phosphate, nickel, bauxite or other key inputs to fertilisers and batteries. In addition, both countries may seek common standards on ESG, land use and community engagement in mining. This would help attract global capital that increasingly screens mining and energy assets for climate and social performance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how South–South alliances are becoming more important in global energy and mining governance. If the MoU translates into concrete investment in grids, renewables and sustainable mining, Brazil and Indonesia could position themselves as pivotal suppliers in a lower-carbon economy. Investors should watch for follow-on deals linking biofuels, critical minerals and grid modernisation under this new framework.

US Senate energy and tax bill threatens clean energy incentives

US Senate

The US Senate energy and tax bill is set to reshape the country’s energy landscape. Senate Republicans introduced measures that slash clean energy tax credits, expand fossil fuel leasing, and extend trillions in tax cuts. The vote could pass as early as today, with deep consequences for renewable investors. The US Senate energy and tax bill also introduces excise taxes on wind and solar projects sourcing equipment from "prohibited foreign entities."

Major cuts to clean energy programs

The bill eliminates most climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, including $7,500 EV tax credits and wind-solar incentives. Renewable industry leaders warn of mass job losses and halted investment. Meanwhile, biofuels, nuclear, and geothermal maintain partial support under adjusted credit structures. The new hydrogen credit deadline is January 2028.

Fossil fuels gain momentum

Oil and gas benefit heavily from the bill. It mandates Gulf of Mexico lease sales, reduces royalty rates, and restores tax deductions worth hundreds of millions. As a result, domestic drilling will accelerate. President Trump has demanded Congress finalize the bill before 4 July, framing it as a cornerstone of US energy independence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The bill represents a decisive shift toward fossil fuel prioritization at the expense of renewables. For metals and critical minerals investors, reduced clean energy incentives may slow downstream demand, but fossil fuel expansion could sustain industrial inputs tied to oil and gas infrastructure.

Electricity Drives Global Energy Demand Surge in 2024, Says IEA

IEA

Electricity led global energy growth in 2024

Electricity was the main driver of global energy demand growth in 2024, according to the IEA's Global Energy Review. Total energy demand increased by 2.2%, well above the 10-year average of 1.3% from 2013 to 2023. Electricity consumption alone rose 4.3%, boosted by extreme heat, data centers, transport electrification, and industrial use. As a result, the energy sector faced unprecedented pressure to balance supply, climate needs, and economic expansion.

The IEA noted that renewables and nuclear met 80% of the new electricity demand, while gas generation also rose steadily. In fact, 700GW of new renewable capacity was installed in 2024 — a record high. Together, renewable and nuclear power provided 40% of global electricity generation last year.

Coal, gas, and oil trends reflect shifting energy priorities

Global gas demand rose 2.7%, largely due to surging use in Asia, with China and India growing by over 7% and 10%, respectively. However, global oil demand growth slowed to just 0.8%, down from 1.9% in 2023, falling below 30% of total energy use. Electric vehicle adoption offset much of the oil demand for road transport, despite increases in aviation and petrochemical consumption. Meanwhile, coal demand growth dropped to 1.1% in 2024, half of 2023’s rate.

According to the IEA, extreme weather played a major role in global energy demand shifts.

Heatwaves in China and India accounted for more than 90% of the annual increase in coal consumption. Still, the global rise in energy-related CO₂ emissions slowed to 0.8% from 1.2% the year before.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s 2024 review reveals the new normal: weather volatility and digitalization now shape energy flows more than economic cycles. Electricity’s dominance signals a long-term rebalancing of global power systems. For metal markets, this means sustained demand for grid, EV, and renewable infrastructure materials. As clean tech adoption accelerates, the metals supply chain becomes not only strategic—but indispensable.

Vattenfall to Invest €5 Billion in German Renewables by 2028

Vattenfall

Massive Investment in Renewable Energy

Swedish state-owned energy giant Vattenfall has unveiled ambitious plans to invest over €5 billion in Germany by 2028 as part of its commitment to the energy transition. The initiative underscores Germany's growing importance as a hub for renewable energy development.

Focus Areas: EV Infrastructure and Solar-Battery Integration

A significant portion of this investment, approximately €500 million, is earmarked for developing electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure across Germany. This aligns with the increasing demand for a robust EV ecosystem to support the shift towards carbon-neutral mobility.

Vattenfall also aims to expand its solar energy portfolio by building 500MW of solar parks annually. These parks will be coupled with 300MW of large-scale battery energy storage systems, ensuring grid stability and compensating for fluctuations in solar power generation.

Wind Power Expansion

The company's wind energy projects are equally impressive. Vattenfall is set to bring the Nordlicht 1 and 2 wind farms online by 2028, delivering a combined capacity of 1.6GW. Although Nordlicht 1's initial operational date was planned for 2027, it has been slightly delayed.

In its Q3 2024 financial results, Vattenfall highlighted that it had already added 1.3GW of new wind capacity over the past year, a testament to its leadership in renewable energy development.

A Step Towards Energy Transition

Vattenfall’s investment marks a pivotal step in Europe’s energy transition. By focusing on solar, wind, and EV infrastructure, the utility not only contributes to Germany's climate goals but also fortifies its position as a leader in sustainable energy solutions.

Chile Copper Mining Power Demand to Surge by 2034

Chile Copper

Rising Energy Needs Driven by Processing Shifts

Chile’s copper mining sector will face a sharp rise in power demand over the next decade. According to Cochilco, the state copper commission, the industry will require 32.5TWh of electricity in 2034, up 21% from 26.9TWh in 2024. In contrast, copper production will only expand by 5.6% to reach 5.7mn tonnes in the same period. The mismatch highlights the growing energy intensity of mining operations as ore grades decline.

A higher proportion of copper concentrate production and the increased use of desalinated seawater will drive demand. Cochilco estimates copper concentration will consume 18.7TWh in 2034, or 58% of the sector’s total power. Meanwhile, desalination and pumping water to arid northern mines will account for 5.4TWh, representing 17% of consumption.

Transition to Renewables Amid Rising Costs

Chile’s copper industry has already shifted much of its energy base toward renewables. By 2024, renewables represented 74% of the sector’s electricity use, with contracts steadily renegotiated away from fossil fuels. Cochilco forecasts this share will rise to 78% by 2026. Despite this progress, the overall growth in electricity demand underscores potential cost pressures and supply security challenges for producers.

Copper mining already accounts for one-third of Chile’s total power consumption, and the anticipated rise may stress the country’s grid capacity. Therefore, balancing sustainable energy supply with rising industrial needs will be central to maintaining Chile’s global copper dominance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper sector is entering an era where energy demand grows faster than metal output. The transition to cleaner power sources is vital, but rising electricity costs and desalination needs will weigh on margins. Global buyers of copper should expect long-term pricing influenced not only by supply-demand balances but also by the escalating energy footprint of mining operations.

China Emissions Reduction Target 2035 Signals Strategic but Cautious Shift

China emissions

China emissions reduction target 2035 sets a 7-10pc cut from peak greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-2030s. This new goal adds a clearer waypoint between China’s 2030 peak pledge and its 2060 carbon neutrality target. The move sends an important policy signal to governments and investors watching how the world’s largest emitter plans its decarbonisation path.

However, the China emissions reduction target 2035 still looks cautious when compared with 1.5°C-aligned pathways. The exact baseline year and accounting rules remain unclear, leaving room for interpretation and debate. Even so, China tends to under-promise and over-deliver on climate targets, meaning real-world decarbonisation may outpace the headline number.

Meanwhile, the pledge lands in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. The contrast with a more skeptical US stance on climate policy highlights Beijing’s desire to present itself as a stable anchor in multilateral negotiations. That positioning matters for emerging markets, which rely on Chinese demand, finance and technology in their own transition plans.

Implications for energy, metals and industrial supply chains

China emissions reduction target 2035 will steadily tighten the operating environment for high-emitting sectors. Power generation, steel, cement, chemicals and transport can expect stricter efficiency standards and closer scrutiny of carbon intensity. As a result, companies tied into Chinese value chains must treat carbon as a core cost driver, not a side compliance issue.

At the same time, the target reinforces long-term support for renewables, grids and electrification. Solar, wind, batteries and EVs should see continued policy and financial backing, even if short-term demand cycles remain volatile. This will deepen structural demand for transition metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium and key rare earths linked to motors and power electronics.

Therefore, supply-chain strategies will increasingly revolve around “China-compatible” carbon footprints. Producers that can offer low-carbon materials, verified emissions data and reliable delivery into China’s ecosystem are likely to gain a premium position. Those that ignore the direction set by the China emissions reduction target 2035 risk facing shrinking market access and rising financing costs.

Policy tools behind the China emissions reduction target 2035

China emissions reduction target 2035 sits alongside a wider toolkit of energy and industrial policies. The government is expanding its national carbon trading market, gradually covering more sectors and tightening caps. This will push companies to internalise carbon costs and invest in abatement technologies.

In parallel, Beijing is prioritising non-fossil energy, aiming to raise the share of renewables and nuclear in total consumption. Large-scale grid expansion, energy storage deployment and EV infrastructure build-out will follow. As a result, project pipelines in clean energy and related metals are likely to remain robust, even if some assets struggle with profitability.

Finally, industrial upgrading policies will accelerate the shift away from low-value, energy-intensive production. High-end manufacturing, digital infrastructure and green technologies will benefit most. This industrial mix change may reduce demand for some bulk commodities while boosting demand for higher-grade, cleaner materials. Understanding those shifts is critical for miners, processors and traders planning capital allocation through 2035 and beyond.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China has quietly moved from broad climate aspirations to a concrete mid-term number, even if the ambition band remains modest. The bigger message lies in direction and consistency: carbon constraints in China will tighten, not loosen, across the next decade. For metals and energy players, treating the 2035 target as a floor — and planning for faster real-world decarbonisation — will be the more prudent strategy.

Japex storage battery station supports Hokkaido renewable energy growth

Japex

Japex storage battery station development in Hokkaido marks a strategic shift in Japan’s upstream energy companies toward grid flexibility. The new Japex storage battery station in Tomakomai will support a stable supply of renewable energy as variable output rises. As a result, the project strengthens Japan’s broader push to integrate large-scale renewables without sacrificing reliability.

Japex will build the Tomakomai storage battery station as one of Japan’s largest power-storage facilities, with 20MW capacity. The company targets commercial operations in autumn 2027, aligning the Japex storage battery station with accelerating wind and solar additions in Hokkaido. Meanwhile, the firm highlights that storage batteries will play a growing role in balancing renewable energy output and maintaining grid stability.

Hokkaido emerges as a storage and renewables cluster

Hokkaido offers Japex strong fundamentals for expanding its battery storage business. The region already hosts significant renewable energy capacity and has made visible progress in adopting storage solutions. Therefore, locating the Japex storage battery station in Tomakomai leverages both existing infrastructure and future solar and wind growth.

Japex has already commissioned a smaller 2MW storage battery station in Chiba prefecture, gaining early operational experience. In Tomakomai, the company also runs two solar power plants and plans another for 2028, further deepening its presence in low-carbon assets. However, Japex emphasizes that the Tomakomai storage battery station will operate as a grid-level resource rather than being tied to a single power plant. This design allows the asset to respond dynamically to system needs across the local network.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japex’s move into large-scale storage signals how traditional upstream players are repositioning for a decarbonised power system. By building a major storage hub in Hokkaido, the company is not just following renewable growth but actively enabling it. For metals and battery supply chains, sustained roll-out of 20MW-class projects across Japan will reinforce long-term demand for advanced battery materials and grid technologies.

Indonesia Solar Energy Transition Gains Momentum with $60mn JETP Support

PLN Indonesia Power

Floating Solar Project in Java Advances Despite U.S. JETP Withdrawal

Indonesia’s solar energy transition has taken a significant step forward, with $60 million in new funding for the Saguling floating solar project. The support comes under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and involves joint development by PLN Indonesia Power and Saudi-listed Acwa Power. Despite U.S. withdrawal from the JETP earlier in 2025, international backing continues, reinforcing Indonesia’s commitment to phasing out coal.

Multilateral Support Drives Renewable Investment

The Saguling solar project will receive financing from DEG (Germany), Proparco (France), and Standard Chartered, as announced by GFANZ. This adds to the $1.2 billion Indonesia has already secured under the $20 billion JETP framework. France has played a major role, contributing over €450 million ($511 million) in energy transition funding. According to GFANZ, this investment shows strong appetite among both public and private actors to support Indonesia’s solar energy transition.

Coal Dominates, But Solar Begins to Scale

Indonesia still relies on coal for over 61% of electricity, while solar and wind contribute only 0.2%. However, Indonesia holds solar potential of 3,295GW, and projects like Saguling are vital for unlocking that capacity. The Saguling floating solar farm will add 92MWp and reduce carbon emissions by 63,100 t/year. It will increase Indonesia’s solar share by 13%, with renewables projected to rise to 21% of the energy mix by 2030, and 41% by 2040, according to Ember.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s solar energy transition is proving resilient, even amid shifting geopolitical support. The latest JETP-backed investment reaffirms that international climate finance remains a critical pillar in Asia’s coal phase-out.

TotalEnergies to Supply 1GWh of BESS to Japan

Gurin Energy

Saft to Power Fukushima’s Energy Transition

TotalEnergies subsidiary Saft will supply over 1GWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS) for Gurin Energy’s renewable project in Japan. The system will include integrated lithium-ion batteries, power conversion units, and energy management platforms. Saft will also oversee installation, commissioning, and servicing, ensuring long-term operational reliability.

The BESS will be deployed in Fukushima Prefecture, delivering 240MW of power in four-hour cycles. Construction is expected to begin in 2026, marking one of Japan’s largest single-site BESS installations. This development highlights Japan’s efforts to stabilize its renewable power grid and enhance supply reliability.

Supporting Japan’s Renewable and Carbon Goals

Japan is targeting 40–50pc renewables in its power generation mix by 2040, up from 27pc today. The country also aims to achieve full carbon neutrality by 2050. Advanced storage solutions like Saft’s BESS are critical to balancing intermittent wind and solar generation.

Meanwhile, large-scale deployments like this project show how international partnerships can accelerate Japan’s clean energy transition. By supporting flexible storage capacity, TotalEnergies and Gurin Energy contribute to reducing reliance on fossil fuels while strengthening grid resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

TotalEnergies’ 1GWh BESS project in Fukushima illustrates the growing convergence of global energy players and local renewable developers. Japan’s aggressive carbon neutrality roadmap depends on scalable storage solutions, and this deal positions Saft as a key technology supplier. Investors should watch for how such projects influence Asia’s broader grid modernization strategies.

Argentinian Midterm Elections: A Pivotal Moment for Critical Minerals

Argentina midterm elections

Argentinian midterm elections are approaching. These elections will significantly shape President Javier Milei's economic reforms. Crucially, they will also influence key energy and mining plans. The outcome on October 26th is critical for the nation's future.

Milei's reforms began in December 2023. They successfully reduced annualized inflation to 31.8pc by September. The economy also expanded by 5.2pc. However, progress has recently slowed. Inflation remains above 2pc monthly. Growth in August was the slowest in almost a year.

The US Treasury offers a $40bn "bridge" package. This package supports the Argentinian peso. It includes a $20bn currency swap. A $20bn private capital facility is also part of the plan. International lenders pledged an additional $42bn in April. This support aims to stabilize Argentina's economy.

Energy Legislation and Investor Confidence at Stake

The election's results will impact legislative actions. Congress must decide on a new renewable energy law. The current law, 27191, expires this year. It mandated 20pc renewables by 2025. Renewables already hit 22pc in September. A new green hydrogen bill is also progressing.

Investor confidence in Argentina's energy ambitions is vital. The nation aims to be a major oil and gas exporter. It targets 1mn b/d of oil exports. LNG exports could reach 30mn tonnes/yr. These goals require over $50bn in investment. Therefore, the Argentinian midterm elections are crucial for these plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The upcoming Argentinian midterm elections hold immense implications for the global critical minerals and energy sectors. A strong mandate for Milei's reforms could unlock significant investment. This would accelerate Argentina's resource development. Conversely, a setback might introduce policy uncertainty. This could delay crucial projects. Therefore, industry stakeholders will closely monitor the results.

World Bank Backs Philippines Energy Transition with $800mn Climate Program

World Bank

$800mn Program to Accelerate Renewables and Grid Reform

The World Bank has approved an $800mn loan to help the Philippines accelerate its energy transition and climate resilience. The program aims to raise renewable energy’s share in installed generation capacity from 30% in 2023 to 42% by 2027. Key targets include the procurement of 1GW in offshore wind and energy savings of 5GW/year through efficiency measures.

Power Sector Reform and Clean Transport as Key Pillars

The program also seeks to reform the Philippine electricity market for improved security, flexibility, and competition. Electrifying public sector vehicles will further reduce emissions and modernize the national power grid. These efforts are critical to ensuring grid reliability while meeting the country’s decarbonization goals.

Climate Finance and Global Commitments

The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) will fund the loan, reinforcing its role in global climate finance. At COP29, countries agreed to deliver at least $300bn/year to support developing nations in climate action by 2035. However, recent cuts in bilateral aid may force multilateral banks like the World Bank to shoulder a greater burden.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The World Bank’s $800mn commitment positions the Philippines as a notable front-runner in Southeast Asia’s clean energy shift. As geopolitical uncertainty strains traditional aid channels, multilateral climate financing will increasingly shape industrial energy policy and green infrastructure investment across developing economies.

Age of electricity has arrived as IEA flags surging power demand to 2035

IEA

The International Energy Agency says the Age of electricity has arrived, and global power use is accelerating. Fatih Birol says the shift has already arrived and markets must respond now. The latest World Energy Outlook shows electricity demand rising faster than overall energy use.

The report links electricity demand growth to households, mobility, cooling, and digital services. Meanwhile, it expects demand to rise about 40% by 2035 in two scenarios. In its Net Zero pathway, it expects demand to rise more than 50%.

Electricity demand growth accelerates with AI, cooling, and mobility

Electricity demand growth now surges in advanced economies because data centres and AI add new load. The agency estimates global data-centre investment could hit $580bn in 2025. That figure exceeds the $540bn it links to global oil supply spending.

This demand shift changes capital flows across the energy transition. However, utilities must match new load with firm capacity and flexible generation. As a result, corporate buyers will push harder for clean power procurement.

Renewables lead, but grid constraints and heat risks threaten reliability

Renewable energy deployment expands fastest across scenarios, and solar leads new capacity. Meanwhile, nuclear regains momentum for large plants and small modular reactors. Therefore, system planners will rely on more diverse generation mixes.

Grid investment now lags generation spending, and the bottleneck is getting worse. The agency says electricity generation investment jumped nearly 70% since 2015. However, annual grid spending rose at less than half that pace, and slow permitting delays projects.

Heat risk and security risk now threaten power reliability and supply chains. The agency says temperatures exceed 1.5°C regularly around 2030 in all scenarios. Meanwhile, energy-related CO2 hit a record 38bn tonnes in 2024, and it stays near that level in the current-policy case.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Grid investment will decide whether the Age of electricity has arrived stays affordable or turns inflationary. Meanwhile, metals supply chains must scale copper, aluminum, and transformer components. Therefore, policymakers should speed permits and reduce equipment bottlenecks.

Morocco coal power phase-out hinges on global finance

Morocco coal power

Morocco coal power phase-out plans now sit at the center of the country’s new 2035 climate strategy. The Morocco coal power phase-out commitment targets an exit from coal by 2040, but only if international partners provide large-scale financial and technical support. Without that backing, the Morocco coal power phase-out will slip into the 2040s, despite Rabat’s pledge to halt new coal plant plans.

Coal-heavy power system faces a managed transition

Morocco coal power phase-out ambitions collide with a power mix still dominated by imported coal. Coal supplied 29.2pc of Morocco’s energy and 62.2pc of its power in 2023, making the system highly exposed to fuel markets. Coal also generated 42pc of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in 2022, underscoring the climate stakes of any delay.

However, Moroccan utilities continue to sign long-term coal contracts while European buyers move away from such deals. This reflects the reality of a still coal-centric system that must guarantee baseload power as renewables scale. Under its new nationally determined contribution, Morocco targets a 53pc cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 versus a business-as-usual path.

Meanwhile, Rabat has pledged to triple renewable capacity to more than 15GW by 2030 and expand grids and storage. These investments align domestic plans with the global Cop28 call to triple renewables. As a result, renewables growth and Morocco coal power phase-out measures are designed to move in parallel, reinforcing energy security while cutting emissions.

Financing drives timelines for coal, phosphates and methane cuts

Morocco’s new climate plan makes clear that money will decide how fast the transition happens. Around 31pc of the planned emissions reductions depend on external finance, including early coal closures and grid upgrades. The Morocco coal power phase-out therefore competes for capital with other decarbonisation priorities across industry and infrastructure.

The phosphate sector, a core pillar of Morocco’s export economy, is expected to deliver 8.35mn t of CO₂-equivalent cuts by 2035. Some of these projects will only proceed if concessional finance becomes available, highlighting the link between industrial decarbonisation and global climate funds. At the same time, Morocco has pledged deep methane reductions in agriculture and waste by 2030 and 2050, adding further investment needs.

Overall, Morocco estimates it will require around $96bn to fund mitigation and adaptation measures through 2035. Therefore, the Morocco coal power phase-out, industrial upgrades and resilience projects will all hinge on how quickly concessional and private capital flows. For international partners, the plan offers a clear pipeline of projects tied directly to measurable climate outcomes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Morocco is signalling that coal exit timelines are now a negotiable outcome of global climate finance, not a fixed promise. For investors, the country’s combination of large phosphate reserves, ambitious renewables targets and conditional coal phase-out creates a structured opportunity set. How quickly these commitments move from paper to projects will depend on whether climate funds can match the $96bn price tag.