Morocco coal power phase-out hinges on global finance

Morocco coal power

Morocco coal power phase-out plans now sit at the center of the country’s new 2035 climate strategy. The Morocco coal power phase-out commitment targets an exit from coal by 2040, but only if international partners provide large-scale financial and technical support. Without that backing, the Morocco coal power phase-out will slip into the 2040s, despite Rabat’s pledge to halt new coal plant plans.

Coal-heavy power system faces a managed transition

Morocco coal power phase-out ambitions collide with a power mix still dominated by imported coal. Coal supplied 29.2pc of Morocco’s energy and 62.2pc of its power in 2023, making the system highly exposed to fuel markets. Coal also generated 42pc of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in 2022, underscoring the climate stakes of any delay.

However, Moroccan utilities continue to sign long-term coal contracts while European buyers move away from such deals. This reflects the reality of a still coal-centric system that must guarantee baseload power as renewables scale. Under its new nationally determined contribution, Morocco targets a 53pc cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 versus a business-as-usual path.

Meanwhile, Rabat has pledged to triple renewable capacity to more than 15GW by 2030 and expand grids and storage. These investments align domestic plans with the global Cop28 call to triple renewables. As a result, renewables growth and Morocco coal power phase-out measures are designed to move in parallel, reinforcing energy security while cutting emissions.

Financing drives timelines for coal, phosphates and methane cuts

Morocco’s new climate plan makes clear that money will decide how fast the transition happens. Around 31pc of the planned emissions reductions depend on external finance, including early coal closures and grid upgrades. The Morocco coal power phase-out therefore competes for capital with other decarbonisation priorities across industry and infrastructure.

The phosphate sector, a core pillar of Morocco’s export economy, is expected to deliver 8.35mn t of CO₂-equivalent cuts by 2035. Some of these projects will only proceed if concessional finance becomes available, highlighting the link between industrial decarbonisation and global climate funds. At the same time, Morocco has pledged deep methane reductions in agriculture and waste by 2030 and 2050, adding further investment needs.

Overall, Morocco estimates it will require around $96bn to fund mitigation and adaptation measures through 2035. Therefore, the Morocco coal power phase-out, industrial upgrades and resilience projects will all hinge on how quickly concessional and private capital flows. For international partners, the plan offers a clear pipeline of projects tied directly to measurable climate outcomes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Morocco is signalling that coal exit timelines are now a negotiable outcome of global climate finance, not a fixed promise. For investors, the country’s combination of large phosphate reserves, ambitious renewables targets and conditional coal phase-out creates a structured opportunity set. How quickly these commitments move from paper to projects will depend on whether climate funds can match the $96bn price tag.

Clean Power Growth Will Reshape Global Electricity Markets by 2030

Renewables and nuclear

Clean power growth is set to reshape global electricity markets by 2030. The IEA expects renewables and nuclear to provide half of the world’s electricity by then. This shift will happen even as global electricity demand rises strongly. As a result, clean power growth is becoming the dominant force in future power systems.

The scale of demand growth makes this transition more significant. Global electricity demand is expected to rise from 28,199 TWh in 2025 to 33,594 TWh in 2030. The IEA sees demand growing at an average annual rate of 3.6pc through 2030. Therefore, global electricity markets are not just decarbonising. They are also expanding rapidly.

This demand surge is being driven by structural changes in the economy. Industry is using more electricity, electric vehicle adoption is rising, and air conditioning demand is growing. Data centres and artificial intelligence are also adding a new layer of power consumption. Consequently, power demand growth is becoming one of the biggest industrial themes of the decade.

Renewable Power Generation Is Overtaking Coal in a Bigger Market

Renewable power generation is now moving ahead even as total electricity use climbs. The IEA said renewables are in the process of overtaking coal-fired generation after nearly matching it in 2025. Solar was especially important last year, offsetting weaker wind speeds and softer hydropower output. As a result, renewable power generation is now carrying more of the global power system.

The forecast growth is substantial. Renewable generation is expected to increase by around 1,050 TWh each year through 2030. Solar alone will account for more than 600 TWh of that annual increase. Therefore, solar remains the clearest growth engine inside the broader clean power expansion.

Coal will still remain the single largest source of electricity through 2030, but its position is weakening. The IEA expects coal-fired generation to contract by 0.9pc per year from 2026 to 2030. A plateau in Chinese coal generation is one of the main drivers behind this trend. Meanwhile, renewables and nuclear together are expected to rise from 43pc of global generation in 2025 to 50pc by 2030.

Power Demand Growth Will Test Grids, Flexibility, and Investment

Power demand growth will also expose weaknesses in grid infrastructure. The IEA warned that power systems need far more investment in grids and flexibility. More than 2.5TW of projects are currently stuck in connection queues worldwide. Therefore, grid expansion may become as important as generation investment itself.

Gas-fired generation will still play a support role in this transition. The IEA expects gas-fired power output to grow by 2.6pc per year through 2030. Stronger demand in the US and the Middle East will support that growth. As a result, global electricity markets are moving toward a more mixed system, not a simple fossil-to-renewable swap.

Emissions trends show why this shift matters. The IEA expects the rise of renewables to keep power-sector CO2 emissions roughly flat through 2030 despite higher demand. That would mark a significant change after years of steady emissions pressure. Consequently, clean power growth is becoming the main reason power-sector emissions are no longer rising with electricity use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This forecast matters because it confirms that the power transition is no longer a niche policy story. Electricity is becoming the central growth engine of the global energy system, and clean power is taking a larger share of that expansion. The next real bottleneck will not be ambition. It will be whether grids, storage, and system flexibility can keep pace.

Adani Nuclear Power Capacity Plan Targets 10GW by 2035

Adani

Adani nuclear power capacity could reach 10GW by 2035 as the Indian conglomerate expands into atomic energy alongside thermal, renewable, hydroelectric and gas-based generation. The plan would make Adani one of the most ambitious private entrants into India’s nuclear power sector.

Adani nuclear power capacity development comes as India seeks to widen private participation in nuclear generation. The country needs significantly more reliable baseload power to support industrialisation, electrification and rising digital infrastructure demand.

Adani nuclear power capacity will be developed through Adani Atomic Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary incorporated by Adani Power in February. The business is authorised to generate, transmit and distribute electricity from nuclear and atomic energy.

The group has not disclosed potential sites, reactor configurations or grid integration plans. However, the 10GW target would represent around one-tenth of India’s planned 100GW nuclear fleet by 2047.

Nuclear Adds Baseload Power to Adani’s Integrated Energy Strategy

Adani plans to invest more than Rs2 trillion over the next five years to expand its overall power generation portfolio to 45GW. The programme covers thermal power, renewables, hydroelectricity, pumped storage and supporting transmission infrastructure.

Nuclear adds a different capability to that portfolio. It can provide large-scale, low-carbon baseload electricity while renewable generation expands.

India currently has around 8.8GW of installed nuclear capacity, with nuclear supplying about 3% of national electricity generation in the 2024-25 financial year. Reaching 100GW by 2047 would therefore require a major acceleration in construction.

Private-sector participation could help provide capital, engineering capacity and project execution. However, nuclear projects require long development periods, strict regulation, specialised supply chains and large upfront investment.

For Adani, nuclear could complement its existing thermal and renewable assets. A diversified generation mix gives the group more flexibility as India’s power demand rises.

The company also remains heavily invested in coal generation. Adani Power operates 18.33GW and has 23.72GW of locked-in capacity, giving it a target of 42.05GW by the 2031-32 financial year.

Data Centres and Grid Growth Strengthen Power Demand Outlook

Adani’s nuclear target also fits rising electricity demand from digital infrastructure. The group’s data centre business aims to reach 3GW of capacity by 2030, supported by growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

Data centres require continuous, high-quality power. This increases the value of generation sources that can provide round-the-clock electricity alongside renewable power and storage.

Adani is also expanding hydroelectric and pumped-storage capacity. Through its partnership with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power, the group plans to jointly develop up to 5GW of hydropower and pumped storage.

The portfolio increasingly resembles a full energy system rather than a collection of individual generation assets. Thermal power provides dispatchability, renewables lower emissions, storage balances variability and nuclear could add low-carbon baseload.

This strategy also carries metals implications. Nuclear, grids, data centres and transmission infrastructure require large volumes of copper, aluminium, specialty steels, zirconium alloys and other engineered materials.

If Adani executes even part of the 10GW nuclear target, India’s nuclear supply chain will need more qualified equipment, materials, engineering and fuel-cycle capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adani’s nuclear plan shows that India’s power strategy is moving toward a broader mix rather than a renewables-only model. The industrial opportunity will extend beyond generation into grids, specialty metals, nuclear-grade materials and long-term power infrastructure.

Western Australia Vanadium Battery Plan Targets Grid Storage and Local Supply Chain

Vanadium Battery

Western Australia vanadium battery plans are moving forward as the state government offers A$150mn to support a 50MW battery energy storage system in Kalgoorlie. The project is intended to strengthen energy security in Kalgoorlie and the Eastern Goldfields as the state exits coal-fired power.

Western Australia vanadium battery funding will be awarded through a competitive proposal process. Bids are due by 20 July 2026, with evaluation expected from July and results to be announced later in the year.

Western Australia vanadium battery proposals must also show how they will support the local vanadium supply chain. That condition gives the project industrial significance beyond electricity storage alone.

The plan connects grid reliability, renewable integration and critical minerals development. It also supports Western Australia’s wider Made in WA policy, which aims to build more local manufacturing and clean-energy supply chain capacity.

Kalgoorlie Storage Project Supports Coal Exit

The 50MW Kalgoorlie project is part of Western Australia’s transition away from state-owned coal-fired generation. The government pledged in 2022 to close all state-owned coal plants by 2030.

Several major coal units are already scheduled for closure. Synergy’s Muja C, Muja D and Collie power station will be retired in stages between 2025-26 and 2029-30.

Battery storage is expected to replace part of the capacity and flexibility lost from coal. This is critical because renewable generation requires storage assets that can manage intermittency, stabilise the grid and support peak demand.

Kalgoorlie and the Eastern Goldfields are particularly important because mining regions need reliable electricity. Power disruptions can affect processing plants, mine operations, logistics and regional industrial development.

The government expects more than 1,200MW of new generation and storage to enter the South West Interconnected System in 2025-26 and 2026-27. A further 1,000MW is expected in 2027-28.

The scale of the pipeline shows that Western Australia is not treating storage as a marginal add-on. It is becoming core infrastructure for the state’s post-coal power system.

Vanadium Supply Chain Becomes Part of Energy Policy

The request for proposals is notable because it links battery deployment with local vanadium supply chain investment. This turns the project into both an energy storage initiative and a critical minerals development tool.

Vanadium batteries are attractive for long-duration grid storage because they can offer long cycle life and are suited to stationary applications. They do not compete directly with lithium-ion batteries in every market, but they can serve grid use cases where durability and duration matter.

Western Australia has already invested heavily in battery storage. In 2023, the state awarded A$1bn to support the 500MW Collie battery energy storage system and the 200MW Kwinana battery energy storage system.

The state’s 2025-26 budget also included A$50mn for a local battery manufacturing programme under the Made in WA policy. That aligns with the new vanadium battery proposal, which asks bidders to contribute to regional, economic and community outcomes.

Federal support is also backing Western Australia’s storage buildout. Four lithium-ion battery projects are being partly underwritten through the Capacity Investment Scheme, adding 2.6GWh of storage capacity from late 2027.

This creates a mixed battery landscape. Lithium-ion will remain important for large-scale storage, but vanadium could give Western Australia a route to build a differentiated local supply chain around its own mineral base.

The strategic test will be whether the Kalgoorlie project can move beyond demonstration value. It must prove cost competitiveness, operational reliability and real local supply chain development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Western Australia is using grid storage procurement to create demand for a local vanadium industry. That is the right industrial logic: critical mineral supply chains need committed end-use demand, not just resource potential.

Cop 31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Cop 31

Cop 31 electrification target proposed by Turkey would lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 20% today. The IEA is urging countries to support the goal at the November climate summit in Antalya.

Cop 31 electrification target would place power systems at the centre of the next phase of global decarbonisation. Reaching the target would require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and end-use electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

Cop 31 electrification target also carries major implications for metals demand. More electricity infrastructure would support long-term consumption of copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other inputs used in transmission, storage and renewable generation.

The political challenge is financing. Developing countries warned that higher borrowing costs, limited technology access and weak capital availability could prevent them from participating in the transition at the same pace as wealthier economies.

Grid Investment and Finance Will Determine Delivery

Turkey proposed the 35% electrification goal during climate talks in Bonn. The IEA said the target is achievable and could become a major legacy of Cop 31 if governments reach agreement.

However, expanding electricity use requires far more than adding renewable generation. Countries need transmission lines, distribution networks, transformers, substations, storage systems and digital grid infrastructure.

That creates a significant industrial demand signal. Copper will be central to cables, transformers and electrical equipment, while aluminium will remain critical for transmission conductors and lightweight electrical applications.

Battery storage will also become more important as renewable penetration rises. This supports demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials, while alternative storage technologies could create additional demand for vanadium, zinc and other metals.

Developing economies face the biggest financing challenge. High borrowing costs can make power projects significantly more expensive even when renewable resources are strong.

Turkey and Australia therefore want finance to sit alongside electrification in the Cop 31 agenda. Ministers from Ethiopia, Colombia and other developing countries also stressed that implementation will depend on better access to capital and technology.

Without that support, electrification could widen industrial inequality. Countries with cheaper financing would build grids and clean power faster, while higher-risk markets could remain dependent on older infrastructure and more expensive energy.

Clean Power Source Will Decide Climate Impact

Electrification alone does not guarantee lower emissions. The climate benefit depends on how the additional electricity is generated.

Civil society groups and governments have warned that rising electricity consumption can still be supplied by coal, gas or other fossil fuels. That means the electrification target must be linked with clean generation expansion and fossil fuel transition policies.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance has called for governments to integrate electrification, clean power build-out and coal transition scenarios. It warned that rapid power demand growth could otherwise lock countries into new coal capacity.

Colombia also argued that faster renewable deployment is not enough without addressing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This debate will remain central to negotiations around the broader transition away from fossil energy.

For industrial supply chains, the distinction matters. A clean electrification pathway creates sustained demand for renewable generation, grids, batteries and low-carbon materials. A fossil-heavy pathway may still increase metals demand, but with a much weaker emissions benefit.

The 35% target therefore represents more than an energy consumption metric. It would influence capital allocation, power infrastructure planning and material demand across multiple sectors for the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A global electrification target would be a major structural driver for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and storage materials. But without affordable finance and clean generation, electrification could expand electricity demand faster than it reduces emissions.

Wanji Aluminium Smelter Starts Construction in Xinjiang With Green Power Focus

Wanji Aluminium

Wanji aluminium smelter construction has started in China’s Xinjiang region, marking another step in the country’s shift toward larger, more energy-efficient primary aluminium capacity. The 580,000 t/yr project will require total investment of 4.6bn yuan, or about $667 million.

The Wanji aluminium smelter will use Xinjiang’s clean energy resources, including integrated wind and solar power. This gives the project a lower-carbon positioning at a time when electricity source, power cost, and emissions intensity are becoming central to aluminium competitiveness.

Wanji aluminium smelter development also follows China’s capacity replacement policy. The company currently operates a 580,000 t/yr smelter in Luoyang, Henan province, which is scheduled to be demolished by December 2027 after the Xinjiang capacity is completed.

Xinjiang Project Targets High-Efficiency Aluminium Production

The Xinjiang smelter will use 600kA large-scale electrolytic cells, which Wanji described as the world’s most efficient technology. The project will also adopt advanced process systems to reduce energy use and improve operating performance.

Power consumption is expected to be as low as 12,430 kWh/t of aluminium. That level would place the facility among the world’s most energy-efficient aluminium smelting operations.

This matters because aluminium smelting is one of the most electricity-intensive industrial processes. Producers with access to low-cost renewable power and efficient electrolytic cells can gain a structural advantage over older smelters exposed to coal power, higher tariffs, or carbon costs.

Capacity Replacement Supports China’s Aluminium Upgrade Strategy

The project is moving forward in line with Wanji’s capacity replacement plan released in August 2025. China has encouraged aluminium producers to upgrade electrolytic baths and shift more production toward greener energy sources.

The replacement of Wanji’s Luoyang smelter with the Xinjiang facility shows how China is reshaping its aluminium industry. The strategy is not only about adding volume, but replacing older capacity with larger, cleaner, and more power-efficient assets.

Wanji also plans to build the Xinjiang site into a fuller industrial chain, covering alumina through processed aluminium products. This could strengthen value integration and support downstream aluminium fabrication in the region.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Wanji’s Xinjiang project shows how China is combining capacity replacement, renewable power, and high-efficiency smelting technology to strengthen aluminium competitiveness. The key global implication is clear: low-carbon aluminium will increasingly depend on power strategy as much as smelter scale.

Panama Copper Mine Coal Plant to Add 300MW to National Grid

First Quantum

Panama’s Panama copper mine coal plant will add 300MW to the grid following recommissioning. The Panama copper mine coal plant will source coal imports from Colombia and target a fourth-quarter 2025 restart. As a result, the Panama copper mine coal plant strengthens national power capacity amid mining uncertainty.

Recommissioning links a shuttered mine to grid stability

Panama plans to channel the plant’s output to state-owned Etesa’s grid. Previously, the facility powered First Quantum’s $10bn Cobre Panamá project. However, the supreme court ordered the mine closed in November 2023 after ruling the contract unconstitutional.

Cash flow from concentrate and power sales offsets costs

The restart plan coincides with exports of stranded copper concentrate. Panama authorized shipment of 121,000t of concentrate, with the final lot expected shortly. Therefore, proceeds from power and concentrate sales will offset preservation and safety costs approved in May.

Panama positions the restart as part of a broader reset with First Quantum. In April, the company dropped international arbitration against the state. Meanwhile, recommissioning and grid sales could support future restart prospects at the site.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recommissioning creates near-term baseload while policy discussions continue. Yet coal-sourced power raises decarbonization questions for a copper-centric economy. Watch Etesa dispatch patterns and any mine-related rulings for signals on long-term energy and copper supply.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion doubles coal and rare earth ambitions

Ramaco

The Ramaco Brook mine expansion will more than double planned coal and critical minerals output in Wyoming. Ramaco Brook mine expansion plans lift targeted thermal coal output to 5mn short tons a year by 2029. As a result, the Ramaco Brook mine expansion places the Brook project at the centre of Ramaco’s US growth story.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion transforms Powder River coal profile

Ramaco is using the Ramaco Brook mine expansion to scale its first Powder River basin operation. The company has raised its coal production target from 2mn short tons a year to a 5mn short ton base.

This new plan assumes mine ramp-up through 2029 under supportive market conditions. However, Ramaco also highlights upside potential to 8mn–10mn short tons a year if demand justifies it. The board has authorised management to start preparations for this larger profile.

Regulatory capacity still constrains near-term production despite the ambitious Ramaco Brook mine expansion. The current permit allows up to 2.5mn short tons of sub-bituminous coal per year. Therefore, Ramaco will “actively engage” state and federal regulators to extend approvals across nearly 16,000 acres, up from about 4,500 acres today.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion boosts US rare earth and oxide output

The Ramaco Brook mine expansion also significantly upgrades the project’s critical mineral ambitions. Planned rare earth and critical mineral oxide output has risen from 1,240 short tons a year to 3,400 short tons.

This increased target supports a mine life exceeding 60 years at higher production levels. Meanwhile, Ramaco is adjusting designs for its oxide processing plant to handle greater throughput. The company expects to start operating an oxide pilot plant later this year.

Construction of a commercial-scale processing facility is scheduled to begin in 2026, aligning with the broader Ramaco Brook mine expansion timeline. At the corporate level, Brook complements Ramaco’s metallurgical coal operations in West Virginia and Virginia, which produced 3.5mn short tons in 2024. As a result, Ramaco evolves from a pure met coal producer into a hybrid coal and critical minerals company.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brook’s redesign confirms that coal basins can also be platforms for US rare earth and critical mineral strategies. If Ramaco secures permits and funding on schedule, the Ramaco Brook mine expansion could become a notable domestic source of both power coal and strategic oxides. Market participants should track permit amendments, offtake discussions and the performance of the oxide pilot plant as key de-risking milestones.

France Fossil Fuel Roadmap Sets Clear Timetable for Energy Transition

Fossil fuel roadmap

France fossil fuel roadmap marks an important step in turning climate targets into a structured energy transition plan. The roadmap does not introduce new targets, but it brings France’s energy policies, electrification strategy and climate goals into one document.

France fossil fuel roadmap is significant because it gives a clear schedule for reducing fossil fuel dependence. France aims to cut fossil fuels from around 60% of final energy consumption in 2023 to 40% in 2030 and 30% in 2035.

France fossil fuel roadmap also sets long-term phase-out dates for coal, oil and natural gas. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, while targeting net zero emissions by mid-century.

The roadmap matters beyond France. It gives other governments a practical example of how fossil fuel transition planning can connect emissions targets, energy security, electrification and industrial strategy.

Electrification Becomes the Core of Fossil Fuel Reduction

France’s roadmap links fossil fuel reduction directly to electrification. The country’s new electrification plan, released in April, now sits alongside its national low-carbon strategy and wider climate targets.

This connection is important because fossil fuel phase-out cannot happen only through policy declarations. It requires more electricity, cleaner generation, stronger grids, electric heating, electric transport, industrial efficiency and lower-carbon manufacturing.

France also has an energy security reason to move faster. More than 95% of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported, exposing households and industry to external price shocks, shipping risks and geopolitical disruption.

Reducing imported fossil fuel use therefore serves two goals. It lowers emissions and reduces exposure to volatile global energy markets.

The roadmap reiterates France’s target to cut gross greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. It also supports the longer-term objective of net zero emissions in 2050.

France’s remaining two coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. This makes coal the easiest part of the transition, while oil and natural gas will require deeper changes across transport, buildings and industry.

For metals and materials markets, the roadmap points to rising demand for the physical infrastructure behind electrification. Copper, aluminium, electrical steel, transformers, batteries, rare earth magnets, grid equipment and power electronics will all become more important as France cuts fossil fuel use.

The policy also strengthens the case for clean energy investment. A clearer timetable can help utilities, manufacturers, grid operators and industrial users plan capital spending around future energy demand.

Fossil Fuel Transition Planning Gains Global Momentum

Think tanks welcomed the French roadmap because few countries address coal, oil and gas together under one transition framework. They noted that France did not raise ambition, but still provided a useful model by setting timelines and aligning policies.

This matters because global climate diplomacy is moving from broad pledges toward implementation. The first global stocktake agreed at Cop 28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, but many countries still lack detailed national plans.

France’s roadmap gives that commitment a national structure. It shows how governments can translate climate summit language into domestic policy sequencing.

The document also creates pressure on fossil fuel-producing countries. If demand for fossil fuels declines over the coming decades, producer economies will need diversification plans, new industries and alternative sources of public revenue.

Colombia’s draft fossil fuel transition roadmap shows that this discussion is widening. The country aims to cut primary fossil fuel demand by 90% over 2026-50 while expanding energy access and managing dependence on oil and coal exports.

The EU is also moving in the same direction, even if its language focuses more on emissions reduction than explicit fossil fuel phase-out. The bloc targets net zero emissions by 2050, a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and a 90% reduction by 2040 compared with 1990 levels.

The practical effect is similar. Deep emissions cuts cannot happen without a major reduction in fossil fuel use.

For industry, this creates a long-term signal. Companies should expect more electrification, stronger carbon rules, higher clean-energy investment and greater pressure to reduce fossil fuel exposure in operations and supply chains.

The strategic issue is execution. Roadmaps help, but governments still need permitting reform, grid investment, clean power capacity, financing, industrial incentives and raw material supply security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

France’s roadmap shows that fossil fuel transition is becoming an infrastructure plan, not just a climate slogan. The industrial winners will be countries that connect phase-out timelines with grids, clean power, critical minerals and manufacturing capacity.

BHP renewable power for copper projects accelerates South Australia’s low-carbon shift

BHP

BHP renewable power for copper projects is moving from strategy to execution in South Australia. The new deals with Neoen link Olympic Dam, Carrapateena and Prominent Hill to dedicated wind and battery assets, reshaping their long-term emissions profile. As a result, BHP renewable power for copper projects is becoming central to the group’s decarbonisation roadmap and its compliance with Australia’s safeguard mechanism.

Wind, storage and safeguard compliance for Olympic Dam

BHP will source 100MW of renewable electricity from Neoen’s 300MW Goyder North wind farm and 200MW Goyder battery. This follows an earlier contract for 70MW from Goyder South, which has supplied Olympic Dam since July. Together, these agreements should cover about 70pc of BHP’s copper-related electricity demand in South Australia by 2030.

Olympic Dam falls under Australia’s safeguard mechanism, where on-site generation counts towards covered scope 1 emissions. In 2023-24, Olympic Dam produced 244,321t of CO₂e, staying just below its 246,875t baseline. Therefore, BHP renewable power for copper projects is not just an ESG narrative but a direct tool for avoiding the surrender of additional ACCUs or safeguard credits.

Meanwhile, BHP still surrendered 47,000 ACCUs across 16 other facilities, including iron ore, coal and nickel operations. This highlights how decarbonisation progress remains uneven across the portfolio. However, the South Australian power strategy shows how dedicated renewable contracts can reduce both compliance risk and long-term power-price exposure.

Copper decarbonisation, diesel displacement and long-term risk

BHP is targeting a 30pc cut in operational greenhouse gas emissions by 2029-30 versus 2019-20 levels. The group has already reduced operational emissions to 8.7mn t CO₂e, a 36pc decline from that baseline. In this context, BHP renewable power for copper projects provides a tangible bridge between climate commitments and actual asset-level performance.

The company ultimately aims for net-zero operational emissions by 2050, mainly by displacing diesel in its mining fleets. Progress here has lagged because of technical delays in low-emission vehicle deployment. However, locking in large-scale renewable power for copper operations buys valuable time while mobile-equipment solutions mature.

For customers and policymakers, BHP renewable power for copper projects offers a clearer line of sight to lower-carbon copper supply. This matters as OEMs, grid operators and EV supply chains increasingly differentiate between standard and low-emission copper units. It also strengthens South Australia’s positioning as a hub for renewable-powered mining and processing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BHP’s structured shift into contracted wind and storage underscores how decarbonisation is becoming a core competitiveness issue for copper miners. For metals buyers, the next phase will involve translating these renewable power deals into quantifiable, auditable carbon advantages at the cathode, rod and cable level.

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters Secures A$2bn Australian Support for Renewable Aluminium

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters will receive major government support as Australia moves to keep aluminium production viable during its energy transition. Canberra and Queensland will each provide A$1 billion over 10 years to support the 500,000 t/yr aluminium smelter at Gladstone.

The funding will be linked to production credits for aluminium made with renewable energy. In return, Rio Tinto will underwrite nearly A$7.5 billion in new energy generation and transmission in central Queensland.

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters is strategically important because aluminium smelting is highly power-intensive. The agreement shows how Australia is using public funding to prevent industrial closures while shifting heavy industry away from coal-fired electricity.

Renewable Power Becomes Central to Aluminium Smelter Survival

The support package reflects the growing pressure on Australian metals processors. Rising energy costs and the phase-down of coal-fired generation have made long-term power security a critical issue for smelters, refiners, and steelmakers.

The plan to shift Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters toward renewable power was first flagged in 2024. Rio Tinto also indicated last year that the 1.68GW Gladstone coal-fired power plant could close on 31 March 2029.

BSL produced 370,000 tonnes of aluminium in 2025, below its 500,000 t/yr nameplate capacity. It remains Australia’s second-largest aluminium smelter after the 600,000 t/yr Tomago facility in New South Wales, which is also expected to receive major taxpayer support to remain open beyond 2028.

Australia Uses Industrial Policy to Protect Metals Capacity

Australian aluminium smelter support is becoming part of a wider industrial policy response. Federal and state governments have already pledged major funding for Whyalla steelworks, Glencore’s Mount Isa copper smelter, and Nyrstar’s smelters in Hobart and Port Pirie.

The Boyne agreement also connects aluminium production with carbon regulation. The facility is registered under Canberra’s safeguard mechanism and reported covered scope 1 emissions of 921,558t CO2e for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year, below its baseline of 931,303t CO2e.

Rio Tinto owns 73.5% of Boyne, while YKK Aluminium, UACJ Australia, and Southern Cross Aluminium hold the remaining stakes. The ownership structure reinforces the smelter’s importance to both domestic and regional aluminium supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is effectively deciding that aluminium smelting is too strategic to lose during the energy transition. The real test will be whether renewable power support can preserve industrial capacity without creating a permanent subsidy model.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech Acquisition Strengthens Clean Air Catalyst Business

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition will expand the UK chemicals group’s clean air solutions business and strengthen its position in stationary emissions control. Johnson Matthey has agreed to buy US-based Cormetech for an enterprise value of $360mn in cash.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition terms also include a potential earn-out of up to $100mn linked to Cormetech’s performance in 2028-29. The transaction is expected to close by the end of June or July, subject to regulatory approvals.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition is strategically important because Cormetech produces selective catalytic reduction catalysts used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from gas and coal-fired power plants and industrial facilities.

The deal gives Johnson Matthey greater exposure to the US stationary emissions market, where tighter regulation and rising electricity demand are supporting demand for clean air technologies.

SCR Catalysts Gain Relevance as Power Demand Rises

Cormetech produces SCR catalysts that help cut NOx emissions from power generation and industrial processes. These systems remain important as power plants and heavy industrial facilities face stricter air pollution requirements.

The acquisition strengthens Johnson Matthey’s position beyond automotive emissions control. Stationary emissions are becoming more important as electricity demand rises from data centres, industrial electrification and grid reliability needs.

Data centre growth is especially relevant. Artificial intelligence infrastructure requires large amounts of reliable power, and that can support continued use of gas-fired generation in some markets.

If gas-fired power expands or runs at higher utilisation, emissions control systems will become more important. That creates a demand channel for SCR catalysts and related clean air services.

Cormetech generated sales of $129mn in 2025 and expects revenue of around $180mn in 2026. The company also expects Ebitda of about $35mn, giving Johnson Matthey an earnings-accretive platform in a growing market.

Catalyst Deal Supports Johnson Matthey’s Materials Strategy

Johnson Matthey expects the deal to increase earnings in the first full year after completion. It also expects at least $20mn in annual cost savings and revenue gains by 2030 from combining the businesses.

The transaction supports Johnson Matthey’s wider materials strategy. The company has deep expertise in catalysts, precious metals and emissions control, and Cormetech adds a stronger US industrial emissions platform.

Catalyst production also connects to platinum group metals markets, where Johnson Matthey remains a major global supplier and processor. This gives the acquisition a metals supply-chain angle beyond clean air regulation alone.

The deal comes as industrial customers face pressure to reduce emissions without compromising operating reliability. Power producers, refiners, chemical plants and industrial facilities need proven technologies that can meet regulatory requirements at scale.

For Johnson Matthey, Cormetech offers customer access, manufacturing capability and technology depth in stationary emissions control. For Cormetech, Johnson Matthey adds global scale, technical resources and commercial reach.

The acquisition shows that clean air technology remains a strategic market even as attention shifts toward batteries, hydrogen and electrification. Emissions control for existing industrial assets will still require investment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Johnson Matthey’s Cormetech acquisition shows that decarbonisation does not eliminate the need for conventional emissions control. As data centres lift power demand, clean air catalysts could become more important for keeping gas and industrial assets compliant.

Energy Security Investment Rises as IEA Sees $3.4 Trillion Global Spend

IEA

Energy security investment is accelerating as the war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz push governments and companies to diversify supply. The IEA expects global energy investment to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026.

Energy security investment is now shifting strongly toward electricity, grids, storage, renewables, nuclear, low-emissions fuels and efficiency. The IEA expects around $2.2 trillion to flow into these areas, compared with about $1.2 trillion for fossil fuels.

Energy security investment also carries direct metals implications. More spending on grids, storage, solar, wind, nuclear and electrification will support demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical materials.

The IEA described the current crisis as the largest energy security crisis the world has faced. It expects decision-makers to prioritise resilience, diversification and trusted energy partners.

Electricity Spending Becomes the Core Security Response

Electricity-related investment is becoming the dominant theme in global energy spending. The IEA expects investment in electricity supply and infrastructure to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026.

That figure rises to about $2 trillion when end-use electrification is included. This shows that energy security is no longer only about oil and gas supply. It is increasingly about reliable power systems.

Power grids will be central to this shift. Grid expansion, storage deployment and electrification require large volumes of copper, aluminium and electrical equipment.

Renewables will also remain a major investment channel. The IEA expects renewables spending to reach around $665bn in 2026, including $365bn for solar, $200bn for wind and $75bn for hydropower.

Annual renewables spending growth has moderated because of lower technology costs and policy changes in China and the US. However, low-emissions sources still account for more than 70% of global power investment.

The metals signal is clear. Energy security policy is reinforcing the same material demand base already supported by decarbonisation. Grid metals, battery materials and renewable energy inputs remain structurally important.

Fuel Supply Shock Keeps Fossil Investment Alive

Fossil fuel investment is also rising in selected areas. Total fossil fuel supply investment is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, returning to 2024 levels.

Oil investment is expected to fall for a third consecutive year to below $500bn. Long project lead times, supply-chain limits, offshore rig tightness and uncertainty over the duration of the price spike are limiting near-term spending outside the Middle East.

Natural gas investment is moving in the opposite direction. The IEA expects gas investment to reach $330bn, the highest level in a decade, supported by LNG export projects and demand from data centres.

Coal investment is also expected to rise to $180bn, the highest level since 2012. Around 70% of that spending is expected in China, while some Asian countries may keep existing coal-fired power plants running longer to protect energy security.

The IEA said past investments in renewables, nuclear, efficiency and electrification have already improved energy security in major fuel-importing regions. It estimated that China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia and India avoided around $260bn in fossil fuel imports in 2025.

The conflict is also forcing a search for new energy export routes to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Repair costs for damaged energy infrastructure are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars.

For industrial markets, the result is a more complex energy outlook. Electricity investment is rising fast, but gas and coal remain part of short-term security planning. That mix will shape metals demand, energy costs and industrial competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s outlook shows that energy security and electrification are now the same investment story. The winners will be supply chains that can deliver grids, storage, renewables and critical minerals at scale while reducing exposure to fragile fuel routes.

Indonesia Solar Energy Transition Gains Momentum with $60mn JETP Support

PLN Indonesia Power

Floating Solar Project in Java Advances Despite U.S. JETP Withdrawal

Indonesia’s solar energy transition has taken a significant step forward, with $60 million in new funding for the Saguling floating solar project. The support comes under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and involves joint development by PLN Indonesia Power and Saudi-listed Acwa Power. Despite U.S. withdrawal from the JETP earlier in 2025, international backing continues, reinforcing Indonesia’s commitment to phasing out coal.

Multilateral Support Drives Renewable Investment

The Saguling solar project will receive financing from DEG (Germany), Proparco (France), and Standard Chartered, as announced by GFANZ. This adds to the $1.2 billion Indonesia has already secured under the $20 billion JETP framework. France has played a major role, contributing over €450 million ($511 million) in energy transition funding. According to GFANZ, this investment shows strong appetite among both public and private actors to support Indonesia’s solar energy transition.

Coal Dominates, But Solar Begins to Scale

Indonesia still relies on coal for over 61% of electricity, while solar and wind contribute only 0.2%. However, Indonesia holds solar potential of 3,295GW, and projects like Saguling are vital for unlocking that capacity. The Saguling floating solar farm will add 92MWp and reduce carbon emissions by 63,100 t/year. It will increase Indonesia’s solar share by 13%, with renewables projected to rise to 21% of the energy mix by 2030, and 41% by 2040, according to Ember.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s solar energy transition is proving resilient, even amid shifting geopolitical support. The latest JETP-backed investment reaffirms that international climate finance remains a critical pillar in Asia’s coal phase-out.

Constellium Marks First Hydrogen Aluminum Casting

France-based aluminum producer Constellium has achieved its first industrial-scale aluminum casting using hydrogen combustion at its R&D center in Voreppe, France. The process yielded a 12-ton aluminum slab for electric vehicles, advancing the company's decarbonization efforts.

"Using hydrogen as a substitute for natural gas demonstrates our commitment to sustainability and paves the way for future green technology innovations," said Ludovic Piquier, Constellium's chief technical officer.

Constellium is part of the EU-funded Hyinheat initiative, which promotes hydrogen fuel for high-temperature processes in energy-intensive industries. In April, Constellium closed its coal-fired power station in Singen, Germany, furthering its shift from coal power.

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production from coal ash and industrial by-products

Department Of Energy (DOE)

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production by targeting waste streams that already sit onshore. US Department of Energy will support projects that recover minerals from coal and industrial by-products. US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production to reduce import exposure and accelerate domestic processing. Therefore, the policy shifts attention from new mines to faster, lower-footprint feedstocks.

The funding prioritises pilot programs that extract critical materials from legacy waste. Eligible streams include mine tailings, impoundments, and coal ash. Meanwhile, these materials often concentrate metals that traditional operations left behind. As a result, recovery projects can shorten timelines compared with greenfield mining.

$275mn targets recovery pilots from existing waste streams

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production with up to $275mn allocated to pilot programs. These pilots will test separation, leaching, and upgrading routes at practical scales. However, pilots must prove consistent feed quality and stable recovery rates. Therefore, developers will focus on sampling, process control, and cost discipline.

Coal ash and industrial residues also offer a logistics advantage. The materials already sit near rail, power, and industrial infrastructure. Meanwhile, permitting can be simpler when projects remediate existing sites. As a result, projects can position recovery as both supply creation and environmental cleanup.

$80mn backs field sites for commercial mining technology validation

DOE will also fund up to $80mn to develop field sites that test mining technologies. These sites can validate equipment and methods for commercial deployment. Meanwhile, field demonstrations help investors compare performance across geologies and waste types. Therefore, they can accelerate adoption for scalable recovery platforms.

These funding opportunities also connect to a larger onshoring effort. DOE previously announced a broader initiative to invest $975mn in domestic critical minerals supply chains. However, capital alone will not guarantee output. As a result, successful applicants will pair funding with clear offtake paths and realistic commissioning plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Waste-stream recovery is becoming the quickest route to new domestic critical mineral units. Meanwhile, the winners will be teams that standardise processes across many sites. Therefore, US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production could seed repeatable “mining-as-remediation” business models.

Rio Tinto Secures Solar Power Deals to Cut Emissions at Gladstone Aluminium Smelter

Rio Tinto Aluminium

New 20-year agreements with Edify Energy to supply 600MW solar and battery power to Boyne smelter.

Rio Tinto has signed two long-term renewable power agreements to supply electricity to its Gladstone aluminium operations in Queensland, Australia, the company announced. The miner will source 90% of output from Edify Energy’s Smoky Creek and Guthrie’s Gap solar and battery projects over 20 years.

Together, the projects will generate 600MW of solar power and provide 600MW / 2,400MWh of battery storage. Construction begins in late 2025, with completion set for 2028.

Clean Energy to Power Majority of Boyne Smelter

The agreements will meet 80% of electricity demand at Rio Tinto’s Boyne aluminium smelter, which produces 500,000 tonnes/year of primary aluminium. According to Rio Tinto, the renewable transition will cut 5.6 million tonnes of CO₂e annually, reducing scope 1 and 2 emissions by 70%.

“These are the first company-backed deals with integrated battery storage,” said Kellie Parker, CEO of Rio Tinto Australia.

The move builds on Rio Tinto’s 2.2GW of renewable PPAs signed in 2024, supporting broader decarbonization across its Queensland alumina and aluminium assets, including Queensland Alumina and Yarwun, two of Australia’s highest industrial CO₂e emitters.

State and Federal Policy Boosts, but Global Tensions Loom

The deals follow Queensland’s commitment to support the Boyne plant’s shift from coal-powered energy, which still dominates the state grid. However, new conservative state leadership plans to tighten wind regulations, potentially delaying other renewable initiatives.

Meanwhile, Australia’s federal government has pledged production credits to aluminium smelters as part of its low-carbon manufacturing strategy. Yet this policy has triggered criticism from the U.S. government, which imposed a 25% tariff on Australian aluminium, citing dumping practices.

China Vanadium Consumption Set to Rise in 2026 as VRFB Demand Accelerates

Vanadium

China vanadium consumption is expected to rise in 2026 as vanadium redox flow batteries, steelmaking, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and denitration catalysts increase demand. The strongest growth is likely to come from VRFB-based energy storage, where projects are entering a more concentrated construction and commissioning phase.

China vanadium consumption reached 125,900t of vanadium pentoxide equivalent in 2025, up 6.1% from 2024. The market is now shifting from a steel-dominated structure toward a more diversified demand base.

China vanadium consumption still depends heavily on steel, but the share of energy storage has expanded quickly. Steel accounted for 70.9% of total demand in 2025, down from 87.9% in 2021. Energy storage rose to 20% of total use from only 4% over the same period.

This change is strategically important for vanadium producers. Demand is no longer driven only by construction steel, rebar and alloy additions. It is increasingly tied to long-duration energy storage, grid stability, batteries, catalysts and higher-value industrial applications.

VRFB Storage and Steel Demand Drive the 2026 Consumption Outlook

Vanadium demand from VRFB energy storage is expected to increase sharply in the second half of 2026. China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued a notice on 30 January to improve the generation-side capacity price mechanism, supporting longer-duration storage.

This policy direction matters because VRFB technology is better suited to long-duration applications than many short-duration battery systems. VRFBs offer long cycle life, high safety, deep-discharge capability and easier electrolyte reuse.

China’s VRFB installations in 2026 are preliminarily estimated at 4-5GWh. This forecast reflects projects already under construction and the availability of high-purity vanadium for electrolyte production.

That installation level would require around 32,000-40,000t of V2O5 equivalent. This would represent an increase of 8,000-16,000t from the previous year, making VRFBs the largest source of incremental vanadium demand.

The growth builds on rapid progress in 2025. VRFB projects with completed electrolyte filling totalled about 3,037.5MWh last year, up 1,027.3MWh from 2024. China’s cumulative VRFB installed capacity reached about 6,064.5MWh by the end of 2025, with an average duration of 4.12 hours.

The market is now moving from pilot-stage expansion to larger system deployment. As more long-duration storage projects reach construction and commissioning, vanadium electrolyte demand could become more predictable.

Steel remains the largest end-use sector. Vanadium demand from China’s steel industry is expected at 92,000-95,000t in 2026, up 3,000-6,000t from 2025.

The increase is tied to stronger demand from machinery, energy, shipbuilding, automotive and rail sectors. These ferro-vanadium end-use segments are expected to grow by around 1.2% in 2026.

The steel demand signal was already visible in the first quarter. Steel-sector vanadium consumption reached around 22,600t, up 1,800t from a year earlier.

Rebar could also provide support. Output of higher-grade steel reinforcement bar is expected to rise as infrastructure investment accelerates. Production licence rules for construction rebar took effect on 1 April, while quality traceability requirements have expanded.

These rules should raise the share of vanadium-nitrogen micro-alloyed hot-rolled rebar. That would support demand for vanadium-nitrogen alloy, especially in higher-strength construction products.

The 2025 steel data show a more complicated picture. Vanadium consumption in the steel sector reached around 89,300t, up 1,700t from 2024. However, vanadium-nitrogen alloy consumption fell by 3.8% to 36,690t because rebar’s share of vanadium use declined.

China’s rebar output fell to 186.3mn t in 2025, down 4.5% from a year earlier. This reduced vanadium demand from traditional construction steel.

Ferro-vanadium performed better. FeV50-equivalent consumption rose by 10.4% to around 39,985t, supported by stronger downstream output in several industrial sectors.

Automotive production reached 34.778mn units in 2025, up 9.8%. Civil steel shipbuilding totalled 52.295mn deadweight tonnes, up 18%. Excavator output rose by 17% to 379,643 units.

Machine tool output also increased. Metal-cutting machine tool production rose by 9.7%, while metal-forming machine tool output increased by 7.2%. These sectors helped offset weakness in rebar.

Vanadium intensity also rose. China’s vanadium use per tonne of crude steel increased to 51g of vanadium metal equivalent in 2025 from 48g in 2024. Rebar intensity edged up to 152.5g, while other steel products rose to 26.6g.

LFP cathode materials will provide another smaller but fast-growing demand source. Vanadium consumption from LFP cathodes is estimated at 2,000-2,500t in 2026, assuming a typical 0.2% V2O5 addition rate.

That would be up by 1,000-1,500t, representing growth of 100-150%. The base remains small, but the rate of increase is significant.

Denitration catalysts should also support demand. Chemical-sector vanadium consumption is expected at around 7,000t in 2026, up about 500t, or 7.7%. Demand will be supported by catalyst replacement, new coal-based thermal power projects and higher sulphuric acid output.

In 2025, chemical-sector vanadium use was around 6,500t, up 200t from 2024. Titanium-alloy-related consumption fell by around 400t, tracking weaker Chinese titanium product exports.

Supply Growth Remains Limited by Feedstock and Cost Pressure

China’s vanadium supply remains highly concentrated, but output growth is not straightforward. The country accounted for 68.8% of global vanadium capacity in 2025 and 72.4% of global production.

China’s total vanadium capacity reached 277,600t in 2025. Actual output was 163,900t, down 900t from 2024.

The production base is dominated by vanadium slag. Output from vanadium slag reached 141,300t in 2025, broadly unchanged from the previous year.

Some producers reduced supply. Xinjiang Da’an and Yunnan Yukun did not produce, cutting combined output by about 8,000t. Other producers, including Chengsteel, Desheng and Dagang, raised output by around 15%, offsetting part of the loss.

Stone-coal-based vanadium output fell more sharply. Production declined to 7,600t in 2025, down 2,600t from 2024, as lower prices left all stone-coal producers loss-making.

This route remains highly price-sensitive. At current price levels, only one large-scale stone-coal producer is operating, with output of around 100-120 t/month of ammonium metavanadate on a V2O5-equivalent basis.

A Shaanxi-based producer with capacity of 300-350 t/month has been suspended since early 2026 because of safety issues. It is unlikely to restart in the first half.

Vanadium flake prices rose to 83,000-84,000 yuan/t in March, prompting some stone-coal producers to consider restarts. However, current prices still appear insufficient to drive a large supply response.

Even when prices approached 110,000 yuan/t in 2023, stone-coal-based output only reached about 11,000t. This suggests that 2026 output growth from stone coal will likely remain limited.

Secondary resources are becoming more important. Vanadium output from spent catalysts and other secondary sources rose to 15,100t in 2025, up 1,900t from 2024.

This included about 6,700t from alumina by-product recovery, up around 1,700t. Output from spent catalysts and petroleum residues stayed broadly stable despite lower vanadium prices.

The reason is co-product economics. Vanadium is often recovered alongside molybdenum and tungsten from secondary feedstocks. Higher molybdenum and tungsten prices supported operating rates and helped keep secondary recovery viable.

Secondary output is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2026. Feedstock availability is relatively stable, but China’s restrictions on solid-waste imports since 2017 limit the potential for major raw material growth.

Vanadium slag-based supply may edge higher in 2026, but feedstock constraints create uncertainty. Qinhuangdao Baigong completed a 10,000 t/yr V2O5 line in early 2026 and is ramping toward normal operations. Its 2026 output guidance is around 5,000t.

However, tighter domestic feedstock availability could offset this addition. Vanadium-titanium magnetite supply in the Panzhihua area is particularly constrained, potentially cutting output by about 4,500-5,000t of V2O5 equivalent.

Producers in Sichuan and Yunnan may need to source vanadium-titanium magnetite from the Chengde area or increase imports to keep output in line with 2025. A northeastern steelmaking-based vanadium producer has also reduced vanadium-titanium magnetite imports since December 2025.

This creates a cautious supply outlook. China’s vanadium output may edge higher in 2026, but the increase depends on whether new slag-based capacity can offset feedstock tightness and further weakness in stone-coal production.

The market therefore faces a potential demand-led tightening risk. VRFB demand is rising quickly, steel demand is improving modestly and smaller sectors are growing. Supply growth, meanwhile, remains constrained by feedstock, cost pressure and limited secondary resource availability.

For vanadium producers, the key opportunity lies in high-purity electrolyte-grade material. VRFB demand requires reliable vanadium quality, stable supply and long-term availability. Producers that can supply battery-grade vanadium will be better positioned than those focused only on metallurgical demand.

For steel users, the issue is price exposure. If VRFB demand absorbs more vanadium units, ferro-vanadium and vanadium-nitrogen alloy buyers could face stronger competition from the energy storage sector.

For energy storage developers, the issue is raw material security. VRFB growth depends on enough high-purity vanadium to support electrolyte production. Supply constraints could affect project economics if demand accelerates faster than conversion capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s vanadium market is entering a new phase where steel remains the base, but VRFBs set the growth direction. The strategic tension in 2026 will be whether constrained supply can keep pace with energy storage demand without pricing steel users out of the market.

Hydro Powers Up Green Energy Transition at Alunorte Refinery with New Electric Boilers

Norsk Hydro

Norsk Hydro, a leading global aluminum producer, has announced the commissioning of two new electric boilers at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Pará, Brazil. This significant step is projected to slash the refinery's CO2 emissions by an impressive 550,000 tonnes annually, marking a major milestone in Hydro's decarbonization strategy.

Renewable Energy Powering the Future

These cutting-edge electric boilers will be fueled by renewable energy sources, thanks to long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) secured by Alunorte with the Mendubim solar park and the Ventos de Sao Zacarias wind farm. This strategic move away from fossil fuels underscores Hydro's commitment to sustainable operations and environmental stewardship.

Phasing Out Coal and Fuel Oil

The newly installed boilers replace two outdated coal-fired units, building upon the successful installation of the first electric boiler in 2022.  Hydro has invested NOK 580 million (approximately $51 million USD) in this transition from coal to renewable energy at Alunorte. This investment demonstrates Hydro's dedication to achieving its ambitious target of reducing the refinery's carbon emissions by up to 70% by 2030.  Furthermore, Hydro transitioned to natural gas at Alunorte in August, following a $240 million investment to replace fuel oil. The company plans to eventually power all of the facility's calciners with natural gas, further minimizing its environmental footprint.

“Alunorte is already among the most energy-efficient refineries and this project is moving us even further in our decarbonisation efforts,” said Carlos Neves, Hydro’s vice-president for bauxite and alumina operations.  This statement highlights the company's proactive approach to sustainability and its leadership in the aluminum industry's green energy transition.

Electricity Drives Global Energy Demand Surge in 2024, Says IEA

IEA

Electricity led global energy growth in 2024

Electricity was the main driver of global energy demand growth in 2024, according to the IEA's Global Energy Review. Total energy demand increased by 2.2%, well above the 10-year average of 1.3% from 2013 to 2023. Electricity consumption alone rose 4.3%, boosted by extreme heat, data centers, transport electrification, and industrial use. As a result, the energy sector faced unprecedented pressure to balance supply, climate needs, and economic expansion.

The IEA noted that renewables and nuclear met 80% of the new electricity demand, while gas generation also rose steadily. In fact, 700GW of new renewable capacity was installed in 2024 — a record high. Together, renewable and nuclear power provided 40% of global electricity generation last year.

Coal, gas, and oil trends reflect shifting energy priorities

Global gas demand rose 2.7%, largely due to surging use in Asia, with China and India growing by over 7% and 10%, respectively. However, global oil demand growth slowed to just 0.8%, down from 1.9% in 2023, falling below 30% of total energy use. Electric vehicle adoption offset much of the oil demand for road transport, despite increases in aviation and petrochemical consumption. Meanwhile, coal demand growth dropped to 1.1% in 2024, half of 2023’s rate.

According to the IEA, extreme weather played a major role in global energy demand shifts.

Heatwaves in China and India accounted for more than 90% of the annual increase in coal consumption. Still, the global rise in energy-related CO₂ emissions slowed to 0.8% from 1.2% the year before.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s 2024 review reveals the new normal: weather volatility and digitalization now shape energy flows more than economic cycles. Electricity’s dominance signals a long-term rebalancing of global power systems. For metal markets, this means sustained demand for grid, EV, and renewable infrastructure materials. As clean tech adoption accelerates, the metals supply chain becomes not only strategic—but indispensable.