EIA International Energy Outlook 2025 Cancelled Amid Workforce Cuts and Budget Uncertainty

EIA: Energy Information Administration

EIA cites staff losses as key reason for halting global energy outlook

Energy market stakeholders face data gap as long-term models go offline

The EIA International Energy Outlook 2025 will not be released this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has confirmed. This key global energy report, which models long-term supply and demand, has been canceled due to a significant loss of staff resulting from recent federal downsizing efforts.

EIA cites staff losses and institutional risk

According to an internal memo from EIA’s Office of Energy Analysis, the agency lacks the human resources to complete the report. Over one-third of the agency’s 350 staff reportedly accepted voluntary buyouts, with no firm commitment yet on restoring capacity. As a result, remaining personnel are now focused on preserving modeling knowledge, documentation, and long-term data integrity.

Industry stakeholders left without a key forecasting tool

The absence of the EIA International Energy Outlook 2025 disrupts global energy forecasting for oil producers, utilities, regulators, and foreign governments. Although the agency released its Annual Energy Outlook last month, it omitted key in-depth analysis. Technical delays have also affected near-term data, including a May disruption to natural gas reporting.

The EIA has not ruled out releasing the 2025 International Outlook in early 2026 but did not confirm a schedule. Meanwhile, the White House has proposed an 18% cut to the non-nuclear Department of Energy budget, adding further uncertainty to the agency’s outlook publishing capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The loss of the EIA International Energy Outlook 2025 deprives global energy markets of a foundational forecasting tool. As geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties grow, the lack of credible U.S. modeling raises concerns for long-term planning, particularly for developing economies and cross-border energy investment.

Energy Fuels VAC Acquisition Builds Mine-to-Magnet Rare Earth Platform

Vacuumschmelze

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition will create one of the most vertically integrated rare earth supply chains outside China by combining upstream mining and separation with commercial magnet manufacturing. The US rare earths and uranium producer will acquire Germany-based Vacuumschmelze for $1.9bn in cash and stock.

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition gives the company immediate downstream exposure to permanent magnets, including sintered neodymium-iron-boron products, as well as cobalt-iron and nickel-iron soft magnetic materials. VAC serves customers across electrification and industrial markets.

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition also addresses one of the biggest weaknesses in western rare earth strategy. Mining and oxide separation alone do not create a complete magnet supply chain. Rare earth metals, alloys, powders and finished magnets must all be produced and qualified.

The transaction will leave VAC as a wholly owned Energy Fuels subsidiary while maintaining its German headquarters. The structure gives Energy Fuels manufacturing assets across North America, Europe and Asia.

VAC Adds Commercial Magnet Capacity to Upstream Rare Earth Assets

VAC brings established permanent magnet manufacturing capability into Energy Fuels’ portfolio. Its Sumter, South Carolina, facility currently has 2,000 t/yr of permanent magnet capacity.

That site has significant expansion potential. Capacity could eventually rise to as much as 12,000 t/yr, creating a large US manufacturing base for NdFeB magnets.

The strategic value is substantial because permanent magnets sit at the end of a complex rare earth value chain. Neodymium and praseodymium provide the main magnetic properties, while dysprosium and terbium can improve performance at elevated temperatures.

Energy Fuels has already started developing those upstream materials. The company produced pilot-scale high-purity terbium oxide in March 2026 and produced its first dysprosium oxide at the White Mesa Mill in Utah in August 2025.

VAC therefore gives Energy Fuels a downstream destination for materials it is increasingly able to separate and refine itself.

The company also plans to acquire Australian Strategic Minerals, which would add commercial-scale rare earth metal and alloy capacity in South Korea and a planned metals plant in the US.

If both transactions are completed and expanded successfully, Energy Fuels would control a chain extending from mineral resources through oxide separation, metal-making, alloying and finished magnets.

US Government Finance Supports Rare Earth Industrial Integration

Government support is becoming central to Energy Fuels expansion. The company has secured a conditional commitment from the US Office of Strategic Capital for a 20-year loan of up to $725mn.

The financing is intended to accelerate expansion of the White Mesa Mill and construction of a US rare earth metals facility. This helps close the gap between separated oxides and magnet-ready metal and alloy products.

VAC has also received US government support. The company secured a $41mn grant from the US Department of State to develop a US metal-making facility.

These investments show that US rare earth policy is moving toward full-chain industrial capability rather than isolated upstream projects. The focus is increasingly on converting mineral resources into qualified finished components.

For automotive, defence, robotics and industrial customers, this matters because secure magnet supply depends on multiple linked stages. Any missing stage can recreate dependence on external processing.

Energy Fuels is therefore pursuing an unusually broad strategy. The company is not only adding production capacity; it is trying to internalise several of the most difficult steps in the rare earth value chain.

The challenge will be integration. Mining, separation, metallurgy and magnet manufacturing require different technical capabilities, customers and qualification systems. The value of the transaction will depend on whether Energy Fuels can connect those operations efficiently at commercial scale.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels is moving beyond rare earth mining into one of the most complete western mine-to-magnet strategies yet attempted. If the VAC and metals acquisitions are integrated successfully, the company could become a major non-China supplier of both heavy rare earth materials and finished NdFeB magnets.

Energy Fuels Rare Earth Processing Could Receive $725mn US Defense Loan

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels rare earth processing plans could receive up to $725mn in conditional financing from the US Department of Defense, supporting a major expansion of domestic separation, refining and rare earth metal production.

Energy Fuels rare earth processing strategy centres on its White Mesa mill in Utah, where the company plans to process monazite concentrates into light and heavy rare earth products alongside uranium and vanadium.

Energy Fuels rare earth processing expansion is strategically important because it targets several stages where the US remains heavily dependent on overseas capacity. The company ultimately plans to connect oxide production with domestic rare earth metal and alloy manufacturing.

The proposed loan remains subject to due diligence, final agreements and closing conditions, but it could substantially accelerate Energy Fuels' transition from mineral developer into an integrated critical materials producer.

White Mesa Expansion Targets NdPr and Heavy Rare Earths

The first phase at White Mesa is designed to process up to 10,000 t/yr of monazite concentrate and produce around 1,000 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium oxide.

The operation will also generate concentrate containing samarium and other heavy rare earth elements.

Energy Fuels is installing additional equipment to process mixed rare earth carbonates and produce separated light and heavy rare earth oxides. Commercial production from this expansion is scheduled for mid-2027.

Phase 2 would significantly increase output. Planned additional capacity includes 5,513 t/yr of NdPr, 48 t/yr of terbium and 165 t/yr of dysprosium.

The expansion would also produce 748 t/yr of concentrate containing samarium and other heavy rare earths.

These materials are strategically important for high-performance permanent magnets used in defence, aerospace, electric vehicles, robotics and other advanced technologies.

The Phase 2 project carries an estimated capital cost of $419mn. Energy Fuels estimates NdPr operating costs of $29.39/kg using feedstock from its Vara Mada project in Madagascar.

Global Feedstock and US Alloy Capacity Build an Integrated Chain

Energy Fuels is developing several heavy mineral sands projects that could provide monazite and other rare earth-bearing feedstocks.

The company fully owns Vara Mada in Madagascar and Bahia in Brazil, while holding a 49% interest in the Donald project in Australia.

This geographic diversification could give White Mesa access to multiple sources of feedstock rather than relying solely on US mine production.

The company also plans to move further downstream through the proposed acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials.

That transaction would support development of the American Metal Plant in the US, with initial rare earth alloy capacity of 2,000 t/yr and potential expansion to 4,000 t/yr.

Permitting is expected to continue through 2026, followed by a two-year construction period.

If these projects proceed as planned, Energy Fuels could control a supply chain extending from mineral sands and monazite through separated oxides to rare earth metals and alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels is building one of the more complete non-China rare earth chains in the US. The key strategic value lies in linking diversified monazite feedstock with heavy rare earth separation and domestic alloy production.

US Targets 1 Million Tons of Lithium Production by 2035, Says DoE

Department of Energy (DOE)

The US Department of Energy (DoE) projects that the country could produce 1 million metric tons (t) of battery-grade lithium by 2035. This output would be sufficient to meet domestic demand while allowing for exports to trading partners.

Scaling Up Domestic Lithium Production

The DoE's Loan Programs Office Director, Jigar Shah, emphasized the need to expand lithium extraction, processing, and recycling to support the growing lithium-ion battery industry. He noted that diverse lithium resources across multiple US regions could be unlocked using advanced technology and infrastructure investments.

The US plans to increase lithium supply through three key sources:

• Spodumene deposits in Charlotte, North Carolina, expected to produce 100,000-150,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
• Albemarle’s Kings Mountain mine is one of the most advanced spodumene projects, projected to yield 50,000 t/yr of LCE.

• Brine and clay resources in Nevada, California's Imperial Valley, and the Arkansas Smackover Formation, estimated to contribute 500,000-1 million t/yr of LCE.
• These resources have lower lithium concentrations than South American reserves, but direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology can help process them efficiently.
• Recycling of end-of-life EV batteries, which could reduce the need for new lithium extraction, supplying 50,000-100,000 t/yr of LCE by 2035.

Government Investment in Lithium Infrastructure

The Biden administration has significantly increased investments in US lithium production to accelerate the clean energy transition.

In September 2024, the DoE selected 25 projects across 14 states, committing over $3 billion to expand domestic lithium supply. Additionally, the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, operated by Lithium Americas, received a $2.3 billion loan to build a 40,000 t/yr lithium carbonate facility.

In December 2024, the DoE also allocated $17 million to 14 critical mineral technology projects, reinforcing efforts to scale up lithium production.

Lithium’s Role in the US Energy Transition

According to the US Geological Survey, the US has 1.1 million tons of lithium reserves, compared to a global total of 28 million tons.

Shah highlighted that advancements in direct lithium extraction (DLE) could rapidly unlock large lithium resources, much like hydraulic fracturing transformed the oil and gas industry.

With global lithium demand rising, the US is positioning itself as a key player in the lithium supply chain, reducing dependence on foreign imports and strengthening the clean energy sector.

Largo and Stryten Launch Storion Energy to Boost U.S. Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Market

Largo

Largo and Stryten Energy have officially formed Storion Energy, a joint venture designed to produce vanadium electrolyte for vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). The collaboration aims to strengthen the U.S. long-duration energy storage (LDES) sector by reducing reliance on imported vanadium-based energy solutions.

Storion will combine Stryten’s proprietary VRFB technology with vanadium pentoxide (V₂O₅) from Largo’s Maracás Menchen Mine in Brazil, providing a reliable domestic supply of vanadium electrolyte for U.S. battery manufacturers. The venture seeks to expand VRFB adoption as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries, particularly in applications requiring extended-duration energy storage.

Reducing Costs to Compete with Lithium-Ion Batteries

One of the major challenges for VRFB deployment in Western markets is the high cost of vanadium electrolyte, which accounts for 40-50% of a VRFB system’s total cost, depending on market vanadium prices.

Storion plans to supply vanadium electrolyte at just $0.02/kWh, well below the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) target of $0.05/kWh for flow batteries that provide at least 10 hours of energy storage. This cost reduction is made possible by:

• Stryten’s advanced technology for efficient electrolyte production.

• Largo’s vanadium leasing model through Largo Physical Vanadium, which helps mitigate upfront material costs.

Strategic U.S. Manufacturing Presence

Storion Energy will operate out of Alpharetta, Georgia—where Stryten’s headquarters is located—and Wilmington, Massachusetts, home to Largo Clean Energy. This dual-location setup will enable efficient production and distribution of vanadium electrolytes, enhancing domestic energy security and accelerating VRFB commercialization.

U.S. Department of Energy Amplifies Commitment to Critical Mineral Technologies with $17 Million Investment

Infinite Elements

Strengthening National Energy Security through Advanced Material Innovations

The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has announced a significant investment of $17 million in 14 cutting-edge critical mineral technology projects. This strategic initiative, spanning 11 states, is poised to bolster the nation's energy security and enhance domestic supply chains essential for clean and advanced technologies.

Targeted Improvements Across the Board

These projects, orchestrated by the DoE's Critical Materials Collaborative, aim to refine manufacturing processes for key technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, semiconductors for electric vehicles, and components for wind and solar energy solutions. The focus extends to magnets used in wind turbines and motors, alongside advancements in battery and electronic technologies.

Key domestic materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group metals, silicon carbide, copper, and graphite are under exploration to expedite their commercial readiness, as per the DoE's strategy.

Highlighting Innovative Projects and Collaborations

Among the 14 projects, four are dedicated to developing magnets that require fewer critical materials. These are taking place in notable institutions and companies including the University of Texas at Arlington, Iowa State University’s Ames National Laboratory, ABB Inc., and Niron Magnetics Inc.

Furthermore, the DoE has funded six projects focused on enhancing the processing and manufacturing operations of critical materials. Collaborators in these projects include Free Form Fibers, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, the University of North Dakota, Ames National Laboratory, Tennessee's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Summit Nanotech Corporation.

Recovery and recycling efforts are also part of this initiative, with two projects aimed at reclaiming critical materials from scrap and recycled products. These are underway at Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University and the metal recovery company, Infinite Elements.

The initiative's final push includes projects designed to reduce critical material content in clean energy technologies, involving innovators like hydrogen specialist Celadyne Technologies and battery pioneer COnovate.

US Gallium Recovery Projects Target Domestic Supply Chain for Defense and Semiconductors

DOE(The US Department of Energy)

US gallium recovery projects will receive $5.4mn in funding from the Department of Energy as Washington tries to rebuild domestic supply for a metal critical to defense systems, semiconductors and advanced electronics. The funding will support five US-based projects under the Technology for Recovery and Advanced Critical-material Extraction – Gallium initiative.

The TRACE-Ga initiative is designed to prototype technologies that can recover gallium from US metal-processing feedstocks. This is important because the US is fully import-reliant for gallium and has not produced the metal domestically since 1987.

US gallium recovery projects are gaining urgency because gallium is essential for compound semiconductor materials, including gallium nitride. These materials support power electronics, radio-frequency devices, radar systems, satellite communications, fast chargers, LEDs and other high-performance technologies.

The funding is modest in scale, but strategically important. It signals that the US is no longer focusing only on mining new critical minerals. It is also trying to recover strategic metals from industrial by-products, waste streams and existing processing networks.

TRACE-Ga Funding Targets Recovery From Existing Feedstocks

The DOE award will support five companies working on gallium recovery technologies. Participants include PHNX Materials, Atlantic Alumina Company, Found Energy, Kunin Technologies and Indium Corporation.

The selection of companies shows how broad the recovery opportunity could become. Gallium is not usually mined as a primary product. It is commonly recovered as a by-product from other industrial processes, especially alumina and zinc-related supply chains.

This makes gallium recovery different from conventional mining. The key challenge is not only finding deposits, but identifying feedstocks where gallium exists in recoverable concentrations and developing technologies that can extract it economically.

Industrial waste refiner PHNX Materials could support recovery from complex waste streams. Atlantic Alumina Company brings relevance to alumina-linked feedstock. Found Energy adds an aluminum-related industrial angle, while Kunin Technologies focuses on mineral by-product recovery. Indium Corporation brings downstream metals refining and manufacturing expertise.

The TRACE-Ga initiative therefore targets the middle of the supply chain. It seeks to bridge the gap between laboratory recovery methods and scalable domestic production.

That gap matters because gallium supply is highly concentrated. China dominates primary gallium production and has used export controls to increase pressure on global buyers. For US defense and semiconductor supply chains, reliance on foreign gallium has become a clear strategic risk.

Domestic recovery could help reduce that exposure. Even if early projects produce limited volumes, they can prove process routes, identify feedstock partners and create the technical base for larger recovery systems.

The use of US metal-processing feedstocks also fits a wider circular materials strategy. Instead of waiting for new mines, the US can extract critical materials from industrial streams already moving through domestic facilities.

This could make recovery faster than new primary production. However, it still requires technical success, feedstock security, refining capability and customer qualification.

Gallium Nitride Demand Raises Strategic Pressure

Gallium’s strategic value has increased because of its role in gallium nitride and other compound semiconductor materials. Gallium nitride is widely used where high power, high frequency, efficiency and heat performance matter.

These applications are highly relevant to defense and advanced electronics. Radar, communications systems, satellite technologies, power conversion equipment and semiconductor devices all rely on materials where gallium can be difficult to substitute.

The DOE’s TRACE-Ga funding also sits alongside a larger notice of funding opportunity of up to $69mn. That programme targets technologies and processes that advance domestic production and refining of critical materials, including gallium and gallium nitride for semiconductor applications.

This shows that Washington is building a layered funding strategy. TRACE-Ga supports recovery prototypes, while broader DOE programmes aim to scale refining, alloying and advanced material production.

For the semiconductor industry, domestic gallium supply is not only a raw material issue. It is connected to wafer production, epitaxy, device manufacturing, packaging and defense procurement. A shortage or export disruption at the gallium stage can move through the entire compound semiconductor chain.

This is why gallium recovery matters even if volumes are small at first. Strategic materials often have low tonnage but high consequence. A reliable domestic supply stream can reduce procurement risk for critical systems.

The challenge will be commercialisation. Recovery from waste and by-products can be technically complex because gallium concentrations may be low and feedstock chemistry can vary. Companies must prove that their processes can recover gallium consistently, meet purity requirements and operate at competitive cost.

The US also needs downstream refining capacity. Recovering gallium-bearing material is not enough if the material cannot be refined into forms suitable for semiconductor and defense applications.

The DOE funding is therefore best understood as an early-stage industrial rebuilding tool. It does not immediately solve US gallium dependence, but it helps create the technologies and partnerships needed to rebuild supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US gallium recovery projects show that critical mineral security increasingly depends on recovering by-products from existing industrial systems. The strategic test will be whether TRACE-Ga can move beyond prototypes and create reliable domestic feedstock for gallium nitride, defense electronics and semiconductor manufacturing.

USA Rare Earth Separation Project Gains DOE Support in Oklahoma

US Department of Energy

USA Rare Earth separation project plans in Stillwater, Oklahoma, have gained federal support as the company prepares to scale pilot rare earth processing technology. USA Rare Earth will receive up to $19.3mn from the US Department of Energy for a pilot-scale rare earth separation project.

USA Rare Earth separation project funding will come through the DOE’s Critical Materials Innovation, Efficiency and Alternatives programme. The total project value is $50.5mn, with $31.2mn expected from non-DOE sources.

USA Rare Earth separation project work will demonstrate a pilot-scale continuous ion exchange rare earth production operation. The facility aims to move the company’s bench-scale process toward a pre-commercial unit.

The project matters because rare earth separation remains one of the most difficult gaps in the US magnet supply chain. Mining rare earth material is not enough unless it can be separated, purified and converted into magnet-ready inputs.

Continuous Ion Exchange Targets Rare Earth Processing Bottleneck

The Stillwater facility will test continuous ion exchange technology as a potential alternative to incumbent solvent extraction. Solvent extraction is widely used in rare earth separation, but it can be complex, chemical-intensive and difficult to scale efficiently.

Continuous ion exchange could offer a different route if it proves technically reliable, cost-effective and suitable for commercial production. The DOE’s support signals that Washington is looking for processing technologies that can reduce dependence on existing separation models.

This is strategically important because separation is the midstream bottleneck in rare earth supply chains. Concentrates and mixed rare earth products must be separated into individual oxides before they can support magnets, defence systems, electronics and clean technology manufacturing.

The project timeline has not been disclosed. That leaves the pace of scale-up uncertain, but the funding gives USAR a stronger platform to move from laboratory development toward industrial demonstration.

For the US, the project aligns with a broader effort to create domestic rare earth processing capacity. Without separation, upstream resources cannot become secure industrial supply.

Magnet Ambition Depends on Separation Scale-Up

USAR is developing a fully integrated US rare earth and permanent magnet supply chain. The company plans to produce 10,000 t/yr of magnets by 2030.

That target depends on more than magnet assembly. USAR needs reliable rare earth feedstock, separation, metal-making, alloying and customer qualification before it can reach meaningful commercial output.

The Stillwater project could support that integration by strengthening the separation stage. If continuous ion exchange scales successfully, USAR may gain a more controlled route from rare earth feedstock to magnet materials.

Federal backing is also increasing. The US Department of Commerce issued USAR a letter of intent in January to provide $277mn of federal funding and a $1.3bn loan.

That level of support shows how rare earths have become part of US industrial policy. Washington is trying to build domestic capacity across the value chain, not only encourage private-sector exploration.

The key challenge remains execution. Pilot separation must prove stable, scalable and economical before it can support a 10,000 t/yr magnet target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

USAR’s DOE-backed project shows that rare earth security now depends on process technology as much as mining. If continuous ion exchange can scale, it could help close one of the most important gaps in the US permanent magnet supply chain.

Updates Mining Rebate Rules: What You Need to Know

US Mining

The United States has introduced significant updates to its mining rebate rules, affecting companies in the mining and materials processing sectors. The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released definitive rules on Thursday regarding the Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, a part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. This credit was designed to foster investment in the U.S. manufacturing of components for wind, solar, and battery systems.

Key Changes to the Mining Rebate Rules

The new regulations bring forth an important adjustment for mining companies, particularly regarding "extraction costs." Previously, under the proposed guidance issued in December, extraction was not considered part of the production costs eligible for the 10% rebate. The rationale was that the extraction process was seen as too far removed from the ultimate production of an eligible component, such as those used in wind and solar energy systems.

However, after considerable feedback from stakeholders, the Treasury Department and IRS revised their stance. The updated rules now allow mining companies to claim the rebate for their extraction costs, provided the raw materials are processed into an eligible component. For example, lithium must be refined into lithium hydroxide, which can then be used directly in the production of batteries.

While the regulators acknowledged the importance of value-added processing activities, such as refining and purifying raw materials, they also clarified that "the action of extraction alone does not produce an eligible component." This decision effectively allows certain mining activities to qualify for the credit, but it is important to note that extraction alone, without subsequent processing, does not meet the eligibility requirements.

Industry Reactions and Future Implications

The updated guidance has generated mixed reactions within the industry. On one hand, groups representing mining companies welcomed the inclusion of extraction in some capacity, recognizing the importance of the sector in the overall supply chain for clean energy technologies. On the other hand, some stakeholders, including the National Mining Association (NMA), expressed disappointment over the narrow scope of the final rules.

Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association, argued that the decision to limit the rebate to producers who also refine materials would exclude many crucial projects from benefiting from the credit. He suggested that this limitation goes against the intentions of Congress in fostering a robust domestic supply chain for critical minerals.

The Bigger Picture: Supporting Clean Energy and Domestic Manufacturing

This policy shift reflects a broader push by the U.S. government to bolster clean energy production and reduce reliance on foreign sources of critical minerals. The Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit is an essential part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to position the U.S. as a leader in the production of clean energy technologies. As the demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt grows—critical materials for battery production—the role of domestic mining and refining becomes increasingly important.

Mining companies, however, will need to balance the rebate’s requirements with the investment needed for refining capabilities. Many smaller mining operations may struggle to meet the additional processing requirements, potentially leaving them at a disadvantage compared to larger, more established companies with the necessary infrastructure.

In conclusion, the update to the mining rebate rules marks a step forward in supporting domestic mining and clean energy initiatives but leaves room for further development. The debate over the scope of the credit is likely to continue as stakeholders assess its impact on the industry and its ability to meet the growing demand for clean energy components.

US Allocates $3bn to Strengthen Domestic Battery Supply Chain

Department of Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has selected 25 projects across 14 states to receive over $3 billion aimed at boosting the domestic battery supply chain. This includes the production of batteries, critical components, and materials such as lithium, manganese, and graphite.

The DOE announced on Thursday that the funds will be used to "retrofit, expand, and build" manufacturing and recycling facilities throughout the United States. These projects will focus on various stages of battery production, including direct lithium extraction (DLE), production of cathode active materials (CAM), and the development of battery separators.

Key Investments in Lithium and Battery Recycling

More than $1 billion will be allocated to five major projects. Standard Lithium and Equinor's SWA Lithium joint venture, along with TerraVolta Resources, could each receive $225 million for DLE initiatives. Meanwhile, Cirba Solutions and Group14 Technologies have been earmarked $200 million each for lithium-ion battery recycling and silane production, respectively. Additionally, EnergySys Advanced Systems could receive $199 million to manufacture battery cells at its facility.

This funding will be distributed through the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC) and is part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The final awards will be determined after negotiations between the DOE and applicants, along with environmental impact assessments for each project.

In October 2022, the DOE awarded $1.8 billion in the first round of funding for 14 battery materials processing and recycling projects under the MESC’s program.

US critical minerals list expands to 60 materials

US critical minerals

The US critical minerals list has expanded to 60 materials, reshaping policy for metals, energy and agriculture. The updated US critical minerals list now adds boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver and uranium. As a result, the US critical minerals list will guide US industrial strategy, investment priorities and supply chain risk management for years.

Why the US critical minerals list matters for industry

The new list reflects rising concern over supply chain vulnerability and geopolitical risk. US law requires the US Geological Survey to review critical minerals every three years, based on domestic manufacturing needs and import exposure. This process now captures more metals with defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing applications.

Government agencies played a decisive role in shaping the final list. The Department of Defense pushed to keep arsenic and tellurium, citing key national security uses. The Department of Energy backed metallurgical coal and uranium because of their importance for steel, power generation and defence. These decisions show how critical mineral policy is converging with broader security and industrial goals.

Boron’s inclusion highlights growing dependence on specialised inputs for steelmaking and high-tech uses. The US relies heavily on ferro-boron imports from China, creating a strategic vulnerability. By classifying boron as critical, policymakers can prioritise domestic projects, alternative suppliers and recycling pathways.

Agriculture, fertilizers and the critical minerals agenda

Fertilizer inputs now sit squarely inside the critical minerals framework. Phosphate and potash both entered the list, reflecting their central role in food security. Industry group The Fertilizer Institute welcomed the move, expecting clearer policy support for investment and capacity growth.

Phosphate’s addition is especially significant for US farmers. Market participants and officials had campaigned for its inclusion after the draft list omitted it. The US Department of Agriculture ultimately backed phosphate as a critical mineral because crop yields and global food stability depend on reliable, affordable supply.

As a result, fertilizer supply chains may see more targeted incentives, permitting support and risk monitoring. Recognising phosphate and potash as critical could reduce price volatility and import shocks, while encouraging long-term domestic production and storage strategies.

 

The Metalnomist Commentary

Washington’s broader US critical minerals list strategy now clearly reaches beyond battery metals into steel, energy and fertilizers. By aligning national security, climate policy and food security inside one critical minerals framework, the US is quietly redrawing the map of “strategic materials.” For miners, processors and recyclers, this list will increasingly shape where capital flows and which projects move fastest through the policy pipeline.

US Critical Mineral Processing Funding Targets Domestic Battery Supply Chain

Critical Mineral

US critical mineral processing funding is moving into another major round as the Department of Energy prepares to allocate up to $500mn for processing, recycling, and derivative battery manufacturing projects. The funding opportunity is designed to support US-based projects that can strengthen domestic supply of critical minerals and battery materials.

The Department of Energy will target projects that process raw feedstocks, recycle critical materials, or manufacture battery materials and components. The agency specifically identified battery-related materials such as lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and aluminum among its areas of focus.

US critical mineral processing funding is becoming a central tool in Washington’s effort to reduce dependence on offshore refining and battery material supply chains. The latest funding round also shows that the US is not only focused on mining, but on the midstream capacity needed to convert raw materials into usable industrial inputs.

DOE Funding Pushes Midstream Capacity Beyond Mining

Critical mineral processing remains one of the most difficult gaps in the US battery supply chain. Mining projects can expand raw material availability, but domestic industrial resilience depends on refining, chemical conversion, recycling, and component manufacturing.

The new funding opportunity will support projects that can process critical minerals from raw feedstocks and recycle valuable materials back into the supply chain. This approach reflects the growing importance of black mass, scrap, and secondary materials as strategic inputs for battery production.

DOE battery materials funding also gives policy support to companies working across lithium chemicals, graphite processing, nickel products, copper materials, aluminum inputs, and battery component manufacturing. These segments are essential for electric vehicles, grid storage, defense electrification, and industrial energy systems.

Battery Manufacturing Policy Enters Third Funding Round

The latest funding notice marks the third round in recent years under the DOE’s battery materials processing and battery manufacturing and recycling programs. In September 2024, the agency selected 25 projects to receive more than $3bn to expand domestic battery, component, and critical material supply.

The new $500mn opportunity extends that policy direction. It gives the US another mechanism to move from strategic mineral rhetoric toward physical processing capacity, especially in areas where China still dominates global refining and battery material production.

Applicants must submit non-binding letters of intent by 27 March, with full applications due by 24 April. The timeline signals that the DOE wants near-term project visibility and a faster pipeline of investable domestic capacity.

US critical mineral processing funding will be especially important for companies that can prove commercial readiness, feedstock security, and scalable production. The strongest projects will likely be those that connect raw material access with downstream battery customers and recycling loops.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US is now treating processing capacity as the real bottleneck in critical minerals security. Funding can accelerate projects, but the strategic test will be whether supported companies can deliver cost-competitive, qualified material at industrial scale.

US Finalizes 45X Tax Credits to Boost Clean Energy Manufacturing

US renewable energy projects

The US Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service has finalized rules for the 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit, an initiative under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The credit is designed to spur investment in domestic manufacturing for components used in wind, solar, and battery systems, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening the US clean energy supply chain.

Key Highlights of the 45X Tax Credit

• Incentives for Components:

- Solar cells: 4¢/W

- Solar modules: 7¢/W

- Photovoltaic wafers: $12/m²

- Wind turbine blades: 2¢/blade

- Battery cells: $35/kWh

• Mineral Production Tax Credit: US producers of critical minerals like aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, and nickel can claim 10% of production costs.

Phased Expiry of Credits

The credits will begin phasing out after 2030:

• 75% of the original value for components sold in 2030.
• 50% for 2031.
• Expiring completely after 2033.

Impact on the Renewable Sector

The 45X credit is expected to bolster the US solar industry, which has long relied on imported photovoltaic cells and modules, primarily from China and Southeast Asia. These imports are subject to tariffs and trade investigations, creating additional hurdles for developers.

US-based companies such as First Solar, Enel, and Qcells have already announced plans to establish manufacturing facilities in the US, citing the credits as a critical driver.

A Step Towards Energy Independence

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm highlighted the broader implications of the credits:

"These final rules will help strengthen energy dominance while reducing emissions and leveling the playing field for US companies."

With solar and wind energy demand continuing to grow, the 45X tax credit represents a significant step in building a robust, domestic clean energy manufacturing ecosystem, ensuring the US remains competitive in the global energy transition.

US Critical Materials Funding Targets Recycling, Refining and DLE Technologies

DOE (the Department of Energy)

US critical materials funding is moving deeper into domestic production and refining after the Department of Energy announced up to $69 million for new technologies and processes. The notice of funding opportunity, announced on 7 April, targets critical materials including rare earth elements.

The funding is designed to help move technologies from bench-scale innovation toward commercial deployment. That focus is important because the US critical materials funding gap is often not resource identification, but the ability to scale processing, refining and recovery technologies into reliable industrial supply.

The programme covers three main areas: recycling from manufacturing and end-of-life scrap, refining of gallium, germanium and silicon, and direct lithium extraction alongside critical material recovery from volcanic-hosted geothermal systems.

Recycling and Refining Move Higher on the US Supply Chain Agenda

The first funding area targets recycling from manufacturing scrap and end-of-life scrap. This could support recovery routes for valuable metals already present in electronics, magnets, batteries, industrial components and advanced manufacturing waste streams.

The second area focuses on refining gallium, germanium and silicon. These materials are strategically important for semiconductors, optics, solar technologies, defense systems, data infrastructure and advanced electronics.

US critical materials funding for these metals reflects growing concern over concentrated supply chains. China dominates several critical material processing routes, making domestic refining capability a central issue for industrial resilience and national security.

DLE and Geothermal Systems Add New Resource Pathways

The third topic area covers direct lithium extraction and exploration of critical materials and rare earth elements from volcanic-hosted geothermal systems. This could open new pathways for lithium and mineral recovery beyond conventional mining.

Direct lithium extraction remains strategically important because it may improve recovery efficiency, reduce land use and shorten production timelines compared with traditional brine evaporation. However, commercial scalability remains the decisive test.

The DOE said the $69 million opportunity is part of several programmes totalling nearly $1 billion. These initiatives aim to advance mining, processing and manufacturing technologies across the critical materials supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US critical materials funding programme shows that Washington is now targeting the weakest links between laboratory success and industrial supply. The key test will be whether these grants create commercial refining and recovery capacity, not only promising pilot projects.

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde Acquisition Builds Ex-China Magnet Supply Chain

Serra Verde Group

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition will give the US rare earth producer direct access to one of the most important heavy rare earth projects outside China. The company has agreed to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group for $2.8bn, accelerating its strategy to build a fully integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain.

The deal includes $300mn in cash and 126.85mn USA Rare Earth shares. After completion, USA Rare Earth shareholders will own 66% of the combined company, while Serra Verde shareholders will own 34%.

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition is strategically important because Serra Verde owns the Pela Ema ionic clay mine in Brazil. The project targets production of 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxides by the end of 2027, with plans to double output later.

The acquisition gives USA Rare Earth exposure to four key magnet rare earth elements: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. These materials are essential for high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace, defence systems and advanced industrial motors.

The transaction also strengthens the company’s position in yttrium. Initial Serra Verde output is expected to include 1,534 t/yr of yttrium, a material whose price has risen sharply in the US market and which has strategic applications in ceramics, phosphors, electronics, alloys and defence-related materials.

Serra Verde Adds Heavy Rare Earth Feedstock and Price-Floor Protection

Serra Verde’s Pela Ema project gives USA Rare Earth a near-term rare earth oxide production base. Ionic clay deposits are strategically attractive because they can contain valuable heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.

Initial planned output of 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxides is expected to include 164 t/yr of dysprosium and 29 t/yr of terbium. These are small volumes compared with light rare earths, but they carry high strategic value because they improve magnet performance in high-temperature applications.

Dysprosium and terbium are especially important for permanent magnets used in EV traction motors, wind turbine generators, industrial robotics, guided systems and aerospace components. Without these elements, magnets can lose performance under heat and stress.

The deal also includes a 15-year offtake agreement previously signed by Serra Verde with a special-purpose vehicle funded by US government agencies, including the Department of Commerce and Department of Energy. This gives the project a policy-backed commercial structure rather than relying only on spot-market sales.

The offtake agreement includes price floors for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Floors are set at $110/kg for neodymium and praseodymium, $575/kg for dysprosium and $2,050/kg for terbium.

This structure is important because rare earth projects outside China often struggle when prices fall. Price floors can improve project bankability by protecting revenues and reducing the risk that China-linked supply undercuts new producers during market downturns.

Serra Verde will also share 70% of non-China index prices above the floor, net of separation costs. This gives the project exposure to upside while maintaining downside protection.

The company can also monetise non-offtake elements, including yttrium. That flexibility matters because ionic clay resources can contain multiple valuable rare earths beyond the main magnet feedstocks.

The market timing is favourable for heavy rare earth producers. US yttrium oxide prices have risen sharply, while dysprosium and terbium remain high-value magnet materials. Supply chains outside China remain thin, and buyers are increasingly focused on traceable, geopolitically secure material.

However, the acquisition does not remove execution risk. Serra Verde must still deliver target output, manage ramp-up, maintain product quality and connect mine production with separation, metal and magnet capacity.

Mine-to-Magnet Roll-Up Tests Western Rare Earth Integration

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition is part of a broader roll-up strategy. The company is building its supply chain through acquisitions rather than waiting for long greenfield development timelines.

USA Rare Earth bought UK-based Less Common Metals for $125mn in November. Less Common Metals gives the company rare earth metal and alloy production capability, a critical midstream step between separated oxides and finished magnets.

The company also acquired Texas Mineral Resources for $73mn in March to secure the Round Top heavy rare earth project in Texas. Round Top adds a US-based heavy rare earth resource to the group’s upstream portfolio.

Together, Serra Verde and Round Top are expected to give the combined company 17,100 t/yr of rare earth oxide mining capacity. Separation capacity will total 13,000 t/yr, while expanded metal and magnet-making capacity is planned at 27,500 t/yr and 10,000 t/yr, respectively.

This integration is the key point. Rare earth supply security cannot be solved by mining alone. Ore or concentrate must be separated, refined, converted into metals, alloyed and manufactured into magnets before it can support industrial customers.

Many western rare earth projects fail to cover the full chain. Some have resources but no separation. Others have separation but no heavy rare earth feedstock. Some can produce oxides but lack metal conversion and magnet-making capacity.

USA Rare Earth argues that the merged company will be the only fully integrated magnet supplier outside China. The claim reflects the company’s attempt to combine upstream heavy rare earth resources, separation, metal production and magnet manufacturing in one platform.

That structure could be attractive to customers in defence, aerospace, automotive, robotics and clean energy. These buyers increasingly need non-China supply options that can meet origin, traceability, qualification and security requirements.

The US government-backed offtake component also shows how rare earth supply chains are changing. Western governments are no longer relying only on free-market procurement. They are using price floors, strategic vehicles, financing support and industrial policy to build alternative supply.

Still, integration brings complexity. USA Rare Earth must combine assets across Brazil, Texas, the UK and planned downstream facilities. It must align mining output, separation chemistry, metal production, magnet capacity, customer qualification and government-backed offtake obligations.

The valuation also raises expectations. A $2.8bn acquisition price gives Serra Verde a large strategic premium. The deal will need to deliver heavy rare earth output, stable separation economics and customer demand to justify that value.

The broader market implication is clear. Heavy rare earth supply is becoming the strategic centre of the magnet market. Neodymium and praseodymium remain essential, but dysprosium and terbium determine performance in the most demanding applications.

China still dominates much of the rare earth separation, metal and magnet chain. The USA Rare Earth-Serra Verde deal is an attempt to create an alternative industrial route at scale.

If successful, the combined company could become a rare western platform with upstream resources, heavy rare earth exposure, midstream conversion and downstream magnet capability. If execution slips, it will show again how difficult it is to recreate China’s integrated rare earth ecosystem outside China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition shows that the rare earth race is shifting from single-asset mining stories to integrated supply-chain control. The deal’s real test will be whether USA Rare Earth can turn Brazilian ionic clay output, US heavy rare earth resources, separation capacity and magnet production into a bankable ex-China magnet platform.

Maryland EV battery manufacturer secures $20 million US grant

Ion Storage Systems

Ion Storage Systems, a Maryland-based manufacturer, has been awarded a $20 million federal grant this week to accelerate the commercialization of its solid-state lithium battery for the electric vehicle market.

The grant, provided by the US Department of Energy, will aid Ion in developing nonflammable batteries utilizing ceramic electrolyte manufacturing. According to the Department of Energy, this method has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from battery production by 50%.

Ion is collaborating on this four-year, $40 million project with Saint-Gobain, a supplier of ceramics and glass, and KLA, a manufacturer of chip-making tools.

Furthermore, Ion announced it is working with government agencies to expand the applications of its solid-state battery technology in the defense and aerospace sectors.

US Offshore Mineral Lease Request Begins Federal Evaluation Process

Impossible Metals

US offshore mineral lease evaluation commenced as the Department of Interior initiates assessment of deep-sea mining company Impossible Metals' request for critical minerals exploration off American Samoa. The unprecedented US offshore mineral lease application submitted to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) on April 8th targets nickel, magnesium, cobalt, copper, and rare earth minerals using autonomous underwater robotics, representing the first commercial critical minerals lease request in federal outer continental shelf waters.

Federal Register Process Launches Public Comment Period

US offshore mineral lease evaluation will begin with Federal Register notice publication soliciting public comment on Impossible Metals' application under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act of 1953. BOEM regulates federally managed ocean areas spanning 3-200 nautical miles offshore, encompassing the outer continental shelf where critical minerals deposits potentially exist. This formal evaluation process marks unprecedented territory as BOEM has never issued commercial leases for critical minerals exploration or extraction according to the Congressional Research Service.

Meanwhile, the application targets ferro-manganese crusts and polymetallic nodules identified by BOEM studies as potential sources of manganese, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth minerals. These formations occur in areas offshore of US Pacific islands, including American Samoa, where Impossible Metals plans autonomous underwater robot deployment. The technology approach represents advanced deep-sea mining capabilities designed for minimal environmental impact while accessing strategic mineral resources.

Strategic Minerals Access Addresses Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

However, the lease request reflects broader US government priorities to secure domestic critical minerals access amid global supply chain vulnerabilities. Nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements represent essential materials for clean energy technologies, electric vehicle batteries, and defense applications. Offshore mineral resources could diversify supply sources beyond traditional mining jurisdictions while reducing import dependencies.

Therefore, American Samoa's location positions potential operations strategically within US territorial waters while accessing Pacific Ocean mineral formations. The outer continental shelf contains substantial untapped critical minerals reserves that could support domestic manufacturing and energy transition requirements. Federal evaluation will assess environmental impacts, technical feasibility, and regulatory frameworks for sustainable deep-sea mining operations.

Regulatory Precedent Shapes Future Deep-Sea Mining Policy

Furthermore, BOEM's evaluation will establish regulatory precedents for future commercial critical minerals applications in US waters. The comprehensive assessment includes environmental impact analysis, stakeholder consultation, and technical review of proposed mining methodologies. Federal agencies must balance resource development opportunities with marine ecosystem protection and existing ocean use activities.

As a result, the Impossible Metals application represents a test case for US deep-sea mining regulatory frameworks while addressing critical minerals supply security objectives. Successful evaluation could unlock substantial offshore mineral resources supporting domestic clean energy and defense industries. The precedent-setting nature of this application will influence future policy development for critical minerals extraction in federal waters.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US offshore mineral lease evaluation represents a watershed moment for American critical minerals policy, potentially establishing the regulatory framework for accessing vast untapped seabed resources essential for clean energy and defense applications. While environmental considerations will require careful assessment, the strategic importance of reducing import dependencies for critical materials may drive supportive policy outcomes that could reshape US mineral supply chain security through innovative deep-sea mining technologies.

Lynas samarium oxide output marks another step in building separated heavy rare earth capacity

Lynas samarium oxide

outside China. Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths has achieved first production of samarium oxide at its Malaysian refinery, adding a third separated heavy rare earth material to its commercial product line.

The milestone expands Lynas’ separated heavy rare earth portfolio beyond terbium and dysprosium. The company said it is now the only commercial producer of separated samarium, terbium, and dysprosium outside China.

Lynas samarium oxide output is strategically important because heavy rare earth separation remains one of the most concentrated parts of the global critical minerals chain. China still dominates processing, refining, and separation capacity for many rare earth elements used in magnets, defense systems, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.

Heavy Rare Earth Expansion Moves Lynas Up the Value Chain

Lynas is using its Malaysian refinery to move beyond light rare earths and build a broader separated oxide platform. The company plans to add gadolinium, yttrium, and lutetium over the next two years.

The company may also expand into europium, holmium, ytterbium, and erbium if customer agreements justify the required investment. That approach shows how rare earth separation capacity is being shaped by offtake contracts, not only by resource availability.

Lynas samarium oxide output also improves its strategic value to customers seeking non-China supply. Samarium is used in high-performance magnet applications, including samarium-cobalt magnets, which retain magnetic strength under high temperatures and demanding operating conditions.

US and Japan Offtakes Support Rare Earth Supply Security

Lynas’ product expansion is backed by major offtake commitments from the US and Japan. The company recently signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defence for a $96 million light and heavy rare earth oxide supply deal.

The company has also agreed to sell at least 50pc of its heavy rare earth output to Japan Australia Rare Earths until 2038. These agreements underline Japan’s and the US’ efforts to secure rare earth supply chains for defense, energy, electronics, and advanced industrial uses.

Pricing also supports Lynas’ expansion strategy. Japan Australia Rare Earths and the US Department of Defence have both agreed to buy Lynas’ neodymium-praseodymium oxide at a floor price of at least $110/kg. Lynas’ average realised rare earth sales price rose to A$68.40/kg in July-December 2025, from A$44.60/kg a year earlier.

Lynas produced 6,375t of rare earth oxide in July-December 2025, including 3,407t of neodymium-praseodymium oxide. Output rose by 19pc on the year despite a month of lost production caused by severe power shortages at its Western Australia operations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas samarium oxide output shows that rare earth security depends on separation capability, not just mining. The next competitive frontier will be reliable, contract-backed production of specific heavy rare earth oxides outside China.

Ucore Secures $18M DOD Grant to Expand U.S. Rare Earth Separation Plant

Ucore Rare Metals

Strategic Metals Complex to Process Key REEs by 2026

Ucore Rare Metals has received $18.4 million from the U.S. Department of Defense to expand its rare earth separation plant in Louisiana, significantly advancing domestic REE processing capabilities. The Focus Keyphrase "Ucore rare earth separation plant" reflects the facility’s rising strategic value amid efforts to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains.

This funding increases a previous $4 million agreement with the U.S. Army Contracting Command and will support Phase II development of the Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex (SMC) in Alexandria. The plant aims to commercially separate six critical rare earth elements — including neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium — all of which are vital for defense and clean energy technologies.

Kingston Prototype Expansion and Commercial Scale-Up

The DOD grant also backs the expansion of Ucore’s REE separation prototype facility in Kingston, Ontario, enhancing the company’s technical foundation for scaling commercial operations. Together, the Louisiana and Ontario sites will form an integrated North American rare earth supply chain.

Ucore’s SMC facility will process both light and heavy rare earth oxides at commercial volumes. These include materials used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military applications. The company plans to begin construction and initial production in the second half of 2026.

Strengthening U.S. Rare Earth Independence

This investment demonstrates the U.S. government’s commitment to de-risking critical mineral supply chains, especially in response to China's tightening export controls on rare earths. Ucore’s project is one of the few in North America capable of separating multiple rare earth elements at commercial scale.

The development aligns with national defense priorities and the Inflation Reduction Act’s push to localize materials essential to the energy transition and strategic manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ucore’s rare earth separation plant, backed by the Department of Defense, signals a decisive step toward reshoring high-value critical mineral processing. With construction slated for 2026, the SMC could become a cornerstone of U.S. rare earth independence in an increasingly geopolitically charged market.

Century Aluminum Output Set to Dip in 2026 as Smelter Restarts Reshape Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum output is expected to decline slightly in 2026 as the company balances reduced Icelandic production with a restart of idled capacity in South Carolina. The outlook shows how primary aluminum supply remains sensitive to potline reliability, power infrastructure, and restart timing.

The US-based producer expects to ship 630,000t of primary aluminum in 2026, down 2.6pc from 647,112t in 2025. Shipments also fell 5pc in 2025 from the previous year, reflecting operational disruption and uneven production across the company’s smelter network.

Century Aluminum output was affected by an electrical equipment failure at its Nordural smelter in Iceland on 21 October. The incident stopped production at one of the site’s two potlines. The company expects to restart the second potline by the end of April and return close to full production by the end of July.

Iceland Disruption Weighs on Primary Aluminum Shipments

Nordural is expected to produce 215,000t of aluminum in 2026, down 21.8pc from 275,000t in 2025. This decline will be the main drag on Century Aluminum output, even as the company works to restore production during the first half of the year.

The disruption highlights the importance of electrical reliability in primary aluminum production. Smelters depend on continuous power and stable potline operations. Any equipment failure can reduce output quickly because aluminum smelting is capital-intensive, energy-intensive, and difficult to interrupt without operational consequences.

Fourth-quarter production already reflected that pressure. Century’s total aluminum production fell 15.9pc year on year to 140,257t in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the company benefited from stronger aluminum prices as the LME three-month settlement rose 16.8pc during 2025 to $2,989/t.

Mt Holly Restart Supports US Aluminum Capacity Strategy

The Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina will partially offset the Icelandic decline. Century plans to restart more than 50,000t of idled production beginning in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter. The site is expected to produce 200,000t in 2026, up 28.2pc from 156,000t in 2025.

This restart matters for US aluminum capacity because domestic primary aluminum supply remains strategically important for industrial resilience. Once the Nordural and Mt Holly projects are completed, Century expects average production capacity closer to 750,000 t/yr. That would improve the company’s supply position if execution remains on schedule.

Century is also positioning itself for longer-term US growth. The company confirmed that its $500mn US Department of Energy grant will support its joint development project with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the sale of its idled Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data center infrastructure developer TeraWulf reflects a shift in how legacy industrial power assets are being redeployed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s 2026 outlook shows that aluminum supply strategy is no longer only about price recovery. It is increasingly about power security, restart discipline, and whether the US can rebuild competitive primary smelting capacity.