Magnesium Die-Casting Growth Constrained by China Supply Chain Dominance

International Magnesium Association (IMA)

Magnesium die-casting adoption remains limited despite cost advantages over aluminum, as supply chain risks and price volatility concerns overshadow material benefits. Primary magnesium prices have reached parity or dropped below aluminum prices over the past year, theoretically supporting substitution in automotive applications. However, magnesium die-casting expansion faces significant headwinds from China's 90% global market share and associated geopolitical supply risks that discourage automotive manufacturers from switching materials.

Material Advantages Drive Theoretical Demand for Magnesium Applications

Magnesium offers compelling technical advantages for automotive die-casting applications, particularly in electric vehicle lightweighting strategies. The metal's density equals approximately two-thirds that of aluminum, making it the lightest structural metal available for automotive components. Meanwhile, magnesium's lower melting point reduces energy consumption during casting processes, while higher thermal conductivity improves heat dissipation performance.

Automotive manufacturers currently use magnesium die-casting for engine blocks, transmission cases, steering wheels, and interior brackets where weight reduction delivers maximum benefit. These applications leverage magnesium's superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to aluminum alloys. However, aluminum maintains advantages in tensile strength for high-stress structural applications, limiting magnesium's potential market penetration.

Supply Chain Concentration Creates Investment Hesitation

China's overwhelming dominance of global magnesium production creates substantial supply security concerns for automotive manufacturers considering magnesium die-casting adoption. The country produces approximately 950,000 tonnes annually, representing 90% of global output, while other production remains limited to Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Israel. As a result, no active primary magnesium production exists in Europe or the United States following US Magnesium's suspension in November 2024.

Recent price volatility reinforced automotive industry caution regarding magnesium die-casting investments, with the 2021 price spike prompting some manufacturers to halt new magnesium component development. CM Group managing director Alan Clark noted that die-casters remain concerned about magnesium price exposure without sufficient long-term supply guarantees. Therefore, automotive companies prioritize aluminum's supply security over magnesium's material advantages and cost benefits.

Environmental restrictions, semi-coke limitations, slag disposal procedures, VAT enforcement, capacity cuts, and tight dolomite supply have compounded Chinese production volatility. Brazilian magnesium producer Rima's CEO Ricardo Vicintin emphasized that geopolitical concerns explain widespread reluctance to increase magnesium usage. Consequently, magnesium die-casting growth remains constrained despite favorable economics and technical performance characteristics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The magnesium die-casting market exemplifies how supply chain concentration can limit material adoption despite superior technical and economic attributes. While non-Chinese projects like Latrobe Magnesium, Verde Magnesium, and MFE Magnesium offer future diversification potential, none currently operate at commercial scale, leaving the automotive industry dependent on Chinese supply for the foreseeable future.

Novelis to Supply Low-Carbon Aluminum to Velux in Long-Term Sustainability Deal

Novelis

Strengthening Sustainability in the Aluminum Supply Chain

Novelis has signed a long-term agreement to supply low-carbon aluminum to Danish window manufacturer Velux Group, reinforcing the push for sustainable materials in building products. The US-based aluminum roller will provide 3XXX and 5XXX series aluminum from its European facilities for Velux’s roof windows and accessories. This deal builds on a 2022 letter of intent between the two companies, marking a firm commitment to reducing emissions across their value chains.

Driving Emissions Reduction Through High-Recycled-Content Aluminum

The low-carbon aluminum supplied by Novelis will contain at least 70% recycled content, significantly lowering the carbon footprint of Velux’s products. The collaboration targets a carbon intensity of 3 kg CO2eq per kilogram of flat-rolled aluminum or below by 2030. This aligns with Velux’s goal of halving its scope 3 emissions within the same period. By replacing virgin materials with recycled aluminum, both companies are addressing the high emissions intensity typically associated with primary aluminum production.

The partnership also positions Novelis as a key supplier in Europe’s transition to circular aluminum production. Its European facilities will play a central role in ensuring consistent supply while meeting stringent sustainability benchmarks. As demand for low-carbon aluminum continues to grow in the construction sector, such agreements provide long-term stability for both producers and buyers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This Novelis–Velux agreement is a clear example of how upstream–downstream collaboration can accelerate decarbonization in aluminum-intensive industries. By embedding high-recycled-content aluminum into mainstream construction products, the partnership not only reduces emissions but also signals a broader market shift toward circular economy principles. The move could encourage similar agreements across other industrial sectors where carbon-intensive metals remain essential.

EGA Aluminum Plant Investment of $4 Billion Transforms US Production Landscape

EGA Aluminum Ingot

EGA aluminum plant investment reaches $4 billion for a new primary aluminum production facility in Oklahoma, targeting 2030 startup. The massive EGA aluminum plant will produce up to 600,000 metric tonnes annually, nearly doubling US aluminum production capacity as the country produced only 670,000 tonnes in 2024 according to the US Geological Survey.

Strategic Timing Leverages US Trade Protection Measures

EGA aluminum plant development benefits from favorable US trade policies including the current 25% tariff on aluminum imports. This protective measure creates significant cost advantages for domestic production compared to foreign competitors. The timing aligns perfectly with American reshoring initiatives and critical materials supply chain security priorities.

Meanwhile, EGA expects construction to commence by late 2026, pending completion of feasibility studies and long-term power supply contract negotiations. Tax credit arrangements represent another crucial component of the project's financial structure, demonstrating the importance of government incentives for large-scale industrial investments in the current economic environment.

UAE Company Expands North American Footprint

However, Emirates Global Aluminium brings substantial international expertise to the US aluminum market through its global production portfolio. The company owns primary and secondary aluminum projects worldwide, including Minnesota-based Spectro Alloys acquired through a majority stake purchase in August 2024. This existing US presence provides operational knowledge for the Oklahoma facility development.

Therefore, EGA's investment strategy demonstrates confidence in long-term US aluminum demand growth across automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. The 600,000-tonne annual capacity represents nearly 90% of current total US aluminum production, highlighting the transformative scale of this single project for domestic supply chains.

Presidential Announcement Signals Strategic Partnership

Furthermore, President Trump announced EGA's planned investment during his Abu Dhabi visit this week alongside $200 billion in other commercial agreements. This high-profile endorsement underscores the strategic importance of UAE-US economic cooperation in critical materials sectors. The announcement timing suggests coordinated efforts to strengthen bilateral trade relationships.

As a result, the Oklahoma facility positions EGA to capture growing North American aluminum demand while reducing US import dependence. The project's scale and timeline align with infrastructure modernization requirements and defense industry priorities that demand reliable domestic aluminum supplies for national security applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA's $4 billion Oklahoma investment exemplifies how international aluminum producers capitalize on US trade protection and reshoring trends to establish strategic manufacturing footholds. The project's potential to nearly double US aluminum production capacity demonstrates the scale of investment required to meaningfully impact critical materials supply chain resilience in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Fagor Ederlan Expands with Majority Stake in US Aluminum Producer

Fagor Ederlan

Strategic Move into Secondary Aluminum

Spanish automotive component producer Fagor Ederlan has acquired 51pc of US-based Regen Aluminum, strengthening its presence in North America. The acquisition aligns with Fagor’s sustainability strategy while boosting service capabilities for automotive and industrial customers across the region. As part of the deal, Regen Aluminum will be renamed Fagor Regen Aluminum, reflecting its integration into the parent group.

Regen Aluminum specializes in producing recycled aluminum ingots for automotive, aerospace, and electrical applications. The company has an annual production capacity of 5mn ingots, offering a reliable supply of low-carbon materials to customers. By leveraging Regen’s expertise, Fagor Ederlan enhances its ability to deliver sustainable solutions within the global aluminum supply chain.

Secondary Aluminum’s Role in Sustainability

The production of secondary aluminum significantly reduces carbon emissions, cutting the footprint by more than 90pc compared with primary aluminum. Therefore, this acquisition positions Fagor Ederlan as a stronger player in sustainable metals, a key priority for industries navigating decarbonization goals.

Fagor already operates facilities in Europe, China, and the Americas, and this move reinforces its global strategy. While financial details were not disclosed, the deal highlights the increasing strategic importance of secondary aluminum in global supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fagor’s acquisition of Regen Aluminum underscores a growing trend: automakers and component producers are moving upstream into recycling to secure sustainable supply. As secondary aluminum gains traction, this deal signals how European firms are positioning to meet both regulatory and market-driven decarbonization demands in North America.

US Aluminum Supply Flat in November as Plate, Sheet and Bar Imports Surge

US Aluminum

Secondary Smelters Cut Output While New Scrap Drives Melting Growth

US aluminum supply remained virtually unchanged year-over-year in November 2024, totaling 699,000 metric tonnes (t), according to the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) data. Although overall supply edged up by just 1,000t compared to November 2023, imports of aluminum plate, sheet, and bar surged by 36%, supporting stability in the market.

The only supply category to show a year-on-year increase was plate, sheet, and bar imports, which rose by 29,000t to 110,000t. In contrast, crude aluminum metals and alloy imports declined by 14,000t to 263,000t, while domestic primary production dipped by 6,000t to 55,000t. This trend signals continued reliance on semi-fabricated imports amid weaker domestic output.

Secondary Smelters Lead Drop in Consumption and Recovery

Total aluminum consumption in November fell by 8,000t to 335,000t. Metal recovery dropped in tandem, falling 7,000t to 271,000t. Secondary smelters led the decline, reducing consumption by 5,000t to 205,000t and recovery by 4,000t to 153,000t. Independent mill fabricators also reduced consumption and recovery by 3,000t each.

However, year-to-date trends showed modest gains. Total aluminum consumption and recovery both rose by 50,000t in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 3.93 million tonnes and 3.21 million tonnes, respectively.

New Scrap Supports Melting Increases Despite Alloy Production Drop

Scrap utilization also shifted notably. In November, total aluminum scrap melted or consumed rose to 288,000t, up 4,000t from a year earlier. New scrap drove this increase, rising by 7,000t to 187,000t, while old scrap declined by 3,000t to 116,000t.

Cumulative data from January through November 2024 show total aluminum melted or consumed hit 3.399 million tonnes, up from 3.21 million tonnes a year earlier. New scrap increased by 159,000t, while old scrap rose by 30,000t.

Nevertheless, aluminum alloy production at secondary smelters fell. November’s total dropped by 3,400t to 91,400t. Production of 380 alloy and its variations declined 2,700t to 17,600t, while wrought alloys and extrusion billets rose slightly by 700t to 61,900t. Year-to-date alloy output fell by 43,000t, led by a 23,000t drop in 380 alloy production.

US Aluminum Supply Dips in August 2024 Amid Import and Primary Production Declines

US Aluminum

The US aluminum market experienced a slight contraction in total supply during August 2024, primarily driven by reduced imports of crude metals and alloys, coupled with lower primary production figures. Data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reveals a 1.9% year-on-year decrease, with total supply reaching 716,000 metric tonnes (t), down from 730,000t in August 2023.

A significant factor contributing to this decline was a 15,000t drop in imports of crude metals and alloys, landing at 268,000t. Primary production also saw a decrease of 6,000t, settling at 56,000t. Secondary recovery from old scrap also experienced a decrease of 6,000t to 132,000t. However, an increase in secondary recovery using new scrap, up 13,000t to 166,000t, partially offset these losses.

Year-to-date figures for August show a similar trend, with total new aluminum supply totaling 6.05 million t, compared to 6.11 million t during the same period in 2023. While primary production fell from 504,000t to 452,000t year-to-date, a 134,000t increase in imports of plates, sheets, bars, and other aluminum products to 838,000t mitigated a more substantial year-to-date decline.

Consumption and Scrap Trends

Despite the supply dip, total metal consumption and metal recovery in August 2024 saw year-on-year increases of 7,000t and 6,000t, respectively. Independent mill fabricators played a key role in this growth, boosting consumption by 11,000t to 148,000t and metal recovery by 12,000t to 136,000t. Conversely, secondary smelters reported decreased consumption and metal recovery.

Total scrap melted or consumed in August 2024 reached 315,000t, a 20,000t increase from August 2023. This growth was entirely attributed to new scrap, which saw a 22,000t increase to 186,000t. Year-to-date August 2024 figures show a 140,000t increase in total aluminum melted or consumed, driven by both new and old scrap.

Secondary Alloy Output

Aluminum alloy production at secondary smelters experienced a year-to-date August decline of 37,000t to 722,000t. Notably, production of 380 alloy and its variations saw a 15,000t decrease.

Constellium Hikes U.S. Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices Amid Tariff Pressures

Constellium

Price increase aligns with surging Midwest premium and looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports

Constellium Raises Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices by 15¢/lb

Constellium, a leading French aluminum producer, has increased the price of all flat rolled aluminum products shipped to the U.S. market. The price hike, effective immediately, amounts to a minimum of 15 cents per pound. The company did not disclose specific reasons for the adjustment and has yet to comment publicly on the decision.

This move follows a tightening North American aluminum supply landscape. Market participants suggest that uncertainty surrounding upcoming U.S. aluminum tariffs could be influencing upstream price adjustments. Constellium’s action signals a broader trend as producers seek to mitigate anticipated cost pressures.

U.S. Tariff Expectations Drive Midwest Premium Surge

The timing of Constellium’s increase coincides with a sharp rise in the Midwest premium — the delivered price of P1020 aluminum in U.S. Midwest warehouses. This benchmark has approached its highest level since June 2022, reflecting mounting concerns over supply constraints.

Market speculation centers on proposed dual 25% tariffs targeting Canadian-sourced aluminum. These tariffs, expected to be enforced in early March, could significantly impact U.S. import flows. Canada remains one of the United States' primary aluminum suppliers, making the policy shift especially disruptive for domestic buyers.

If enacted, the tariffs would apply both at a regional level and across Canada nationally, pushing buyers to seek alternative supply chains. As a result, buyers are accelerating purchases ahead of the tariff rollout — further pressuring prices.

Outlook for U.S. Aluminum Buyers Grows More Complex

Constellium’s decision to raise prices reflects broader volatility in the aluminum value chain. Without clear guidance from the company, market watchers tie the move to shifting trade dynamics and rising input costs. As flat rolled aluminum remains essential across construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, downstream manufacturers may soon face pass-through cost increases.

Industry players now closely monitor both U.S. policy announcements and global aluminum price signals. Strategic sourcing and contract adjustments will be critical as the market braces for a turbulent second quarter.

Novelis to Close Two US Aluminum Facilities Amid Strategic Portfolio Consolidation

Novelis

Novelis Shutters Richmond and Fairmont Plants, Affecting Over 250 Jobs

US-based aluminum rolling giant Novelis will close two of its aluminum facilities in the US as part of a broader portfolio consolidation. The Richmond, Virginia, plant will cease operations by May 30, while the Fairmont, West Virginia, site will shut down by June 30, according to a company spokesperson. The closures will affect more than 250 workers, as indicated in Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filings.

The Richmond site produces aluminum rolled sheet used primarily in the building and construction sector. Meanwhile, the Fairmont plant supplies sheet and light gauge fin/foil products to both domestic and international markets. Novelis has not yet disclosed where the affected production volumes may be redirected.

Uncertainty Over Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Adjustments

While Novelis did not attribute the closures directly to tariffs, the decision follows recent trade policy changes. The US Commerce Department in March added canned beer and empty aluminum cans to the list of aluminum products now subject to a 25% tariff. This expansion of aluminum trade restrictions has stirred concerns within the US packaging and metals industries.

The company has also declined to clarify whether production will shift to other US sites or move abroad. Analysts are closely monitoring whether this consolidation signals deeper shifts in Novelis' US manufacturing footprint or its evolving supply chain strategy.

Broader Implications for the US Aluminum Sector

These closures come amid heightened scrutiny of global aluminum trade flows, particularly involving Chinese overcapacity and retaliatory trade measures. As US-based firms reevaluate production economics, facility consolidation may become more common.

The aluminum rolling industry is capital-intensive, and margin pressures from construction and packaging demand fluctuations are significant. Novelis’ action could be a harbinger of a reshuffling of North American flat-rolled capacity in response to policy, demand, and cost headwinds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Novelis’ consolidation reflects deeper tensions in the aluminum sector, balancing plant economics, demand variability, and trade pressures. As the US doubles down on tariffs, manufacturers face growing challenges in justifying capacity retention. The next moves from Novelis—and its rivals—will likely shape the trajectory of rolled aluminum supply in North America.

Novelis and Thyssenkrupp Forge Aerospace Aluminum Supply Deal

Novelis

Strategic Partnership to Enhance Global Aerospace Supply Chains

Novelis and Thyssenkrupp have entered a multi-year agreement. Novelis will supply aerospace-grade aluminum. This includes plates and sheets. Thyssenkrupp's distribution segment will receive the materials. Novelis will provide flat products. These products come from its Koblenz, Germany, and Zhenjiang, China, facilities. Thyssenkrupp's Supply Chain Solutions' aerospace segment will benefit. Deliveries will go to Thyssenkrupp locations in Europe and Asia. 

Novelis acquired the Koblenz and Zhenjiang plants. This acquisition occurred through the Aleris Rolled Products buyout. The buyout closed in April 2020. The Koblenz plant has a 150,000 metric ton capacity. This capacity is for semi-finished aluminum products. The Zhenjiang facility has a 250,000 metric ton hot mill capacity. It can produce 35,000 metric tons of commercial plate products. Aerospace aluminum grades are crucial. These grades include 2024, 6061, and 7075. They offer high-strength, lightweight properties. They are vital for energy-efficient aircraft production. These materials are used in wings and fuselages.

Expanding Reach in Key Aerospace Markets

The agreement strengthens both companies' positions. Novelis reinforces its role as a key aluminum supplier. Thyssenkrupp enhances its aerospace supply chain. The partnership targets the growing demand for lightweight materials. This demand is within the aerospace industry. The deal leverages Novelis' production capabilities. It utilizes facilities in both Europe and Asia. It ensures consistent supply for Thyssenkrupp. This collaboration supports the development of more fuel-efficient aircraft.

Sinova Quartz Quarry Reopening Targets 1 Million Tonnes Annual Production

Sinova Global

Sinova quartz quarry reopening advances as Canadian silicon metal producer Sinova Global restarts operations at its British Columbia facility. The Sinova quartz quarry, formerly known as Horse Creek quarry, will produce over 1 million tonnes annually of 99.6% pure quartz essential for silicon metal manufacturing, supporting North American aluminum and chemical industry supply chains through integrated production strategies.

High-Purity Quartz Supports Integrated Silicon Metal Production

Sinova quartz quarry operations will extract premium-grade raw materials exceeding 99.6% purity levels required for silicon metal production. Silicon metal serves critical roles as an alloying agent in aluminum manufacturing and silicone production within chemical industries. The high purity specifications ensure compatibility with stringent quality requirements across downstream applications.

Meanwhile, the extracted quartz will supply Sinova's Tennessee manufacturing facility currently under construction since 2022. This integrated approach creates vertical supply chain control from raw material extraction through finished silicon metal production. The cross-border logistics strategy demonstrates comprehensive North American market positioning while optimizing transportation costs and delivery reliability.

Strategic Partnerships Enable Rapid Project Implementation

However, Sinova secured necessary permits for construction activities while establishing local partnerships to expedite project development. The company partnered with construction firm Speers to lead construction projects and quartz extraction operations. This local partnership approach leverages regional expertise while supporting British Columbia's mining industry employment and economic development.

Therefore, the permit approval and partnership structure position Sinova for rapid operational restart without regulatory delays. Local construction partnerships provide immediate access to skilled workforce and specialized equipment necessary for quarry operations. The established relationships also facilitate ongoing operational support and maintenance requirements.

North American Supply Chain Integration Strengthens Market Position

Furthermore, the British Columbia quarry reopening aligns with broader North American critical minerals supply chain resilience initiatives. Silicon metal demand continues growing across aluminum and chemical sectors driven by infrastructure development and advanced manufacturing requirements. The integrated Canada-US production model reduces dependence on Asian silicon metal imports while ensuring supply security.

As a result, Sinova's vertical integration strategy from quarry through manufacturing creates competitive advantages in cost control and quality assurance. The 1 million tonne annual production capacity represents substantial market presence within North American quartz supply chains. This capacity supports long-term contracted supply relationships with major aluminum producers and chemical manufacturers requiring reliable silicon metal access.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinova's quartz quarry reopening exemplifies strategic vertical integration in critical minerals supply chains, leveraging high-purity Canadian resources to support growing North American silicon metal demand. The integrated approach from British Columbia extraction through Tennessee processing demonstrates how companies can build supply chain resilience while capitalizing on regional resource advantages and cross-border manufacturing synergies.

Enduring Reliance Amid Sanctions: Europe’s Russian Titanium Dilemma

VSMPO Titanium

Introduction: A Supply Chain Unbroken in Wartime

Despite sweeping economic sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one supply chain has proved remarkably resilient: Russian titanium sponge. Europe’s quandary over this advanced material—indispensable to aerospace, defense, and medical-device manufacturing—has only deepened.

Russia’s Command of Titanium

Russia ranks among the world’s largest titanium producers. VSMPO-AVISMA, the country’s flagship producer, accounts for 90% of Russia’s titanium output and exports to some 50 countries. The company is estimated to control up to 30% of the global titanium market and nearly half of aerospace-grade supply.

Russia’s dominance rests on abundant raw-material reserves and comparatively low energy costs. Because titanium smelting is energy-intensive, commercial viability depends on cheap power and gas—conditions Russia has historically met.

Airbus A380

Trade that Continues Despite Sanctions

On 7 March 2022, Boeing announced it would halt purchases of Russian titanium used in aircraft manufacturing. Rolls-Royce and Boeing subsequently suspended procurement from VSMPO-AVISMA indefinitely.

Europe, however, charted a different course. Airbus urged the European Union to keep Russian titanium outside future sanctions packages. As Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury argued, titanium represents a small share of Russia’s total exports, so sanctions would inflict little pain on Moscow while dealing a heavy blow to Europe’s aerospace industry.

Today, Airbus still sources roughly half of its titanium from VSMPO-AVISMA. Boeing, by contrast, once relied on Russia for about one-third of its titanium but has since stopped buying Russian material.

The Limits—and Exceptions—of EU Sanctions

Notably, while the EU has restricted imports of Russian steel and coal, titanium has not been sanctioned. The metal remains a strategic material used in fuselages, turbine blades, satellites, and other critical systems.

Dependence on Russian metals endures in other segments as well. From March to June 2022, combined EU-US imports of Russian aluminum and nickel rose to $1.98 billion—more than 70% above the prior-year period.

Washington and Brussels have generally refrained from designating industrial metals as sanction targets. Europe continues to import large volumes of Russian natural gas, and Russia supplies about 40% of global palladium—vital for semiconductors—implicating everything from automobiles to smartphones.

CBAM

CBAM: A New Variable

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced in October 2023, adds another layer of complexity. CBAM initially covers cement, electricity, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminum, hydrogen, and certain downstream products in steel and aluminum. After a transition phase through 2025, full implementation begins in 2026, imposing carbon costs on imports equivalent to those borne by EU producers.

While fertilizers, cement, hydrogen, and non-exported electricity may see limited near-term impact, aluminum stands out as a key target sector. Most exports to the EU beyond steel and aluminum are not yet covered, though the European Commission has signaled possible expansion to high-leakage categories such as organic chemicals and plastics.

Russia is structurally disadvantaged under CBAM. Steel production in Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye tends to be more carbon-intensive, implying higher embedded-carbon costs at the border.

Ambiguities in Sanctions and Industry’s Dilemma

The United States placed VSMPO-AVISMA on its “military end-user” list, restricting access to advanced technologies, but stopped short of a direct ban on titanium sales—an acknowledgment of global industry’s reliance on the material.

Indeed, during the early stages of the war, VSMPO-AVISMA avoided sweeping US and European sanctions. Although Washington temporarily listed the company in December 2020, the measure was later rescinded.

Recent moves, however, suggest a tightening environment. In April 2024, a joint US-UK action prompted the CME and LME to prohibit trade in newly produced Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel dated after 13 April—an effort widely read as constraining Russia’s influence in metals markets.

Ukraine Titanium Mine

Ukraine: A Viable Alternative?

Against this backdrop, Ukraine has emerged as a potential alternative. Until 2020, the country supplied 90% of Russia’s ilmenite—the feedstock for titanium sponge. With that supply chain severed by war, Ukrainian resources could help challenge Russia’s dominance.

US companies have begun talks with Kyiv on a joint venture anchored by the Zaporizhzhia Titanium-Magnesium Plant (ZTMP). Such partnerships could forge a new titanium hub in Eastern Europe, strengthening Ukraine’s economic footing for decades.

The risks are significant. Ongoing conflict and occupation threaten both Donbas deposits and the ZTMP facilities, which remain exposed to shelling and sabotage.

Aviation’s Growth—and Its Dilemma

The aerospace-titanium market was valued at roughly $100 million in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 5% from 2023 to 2032—reflecting the rebound in air travel and a pipeline of commercial aircraft programs.

Despite supply-chain turbulence from war, energy constraints, and labor shortages, passenger traffic continues to recover, lifting titanium demand. In October 2022, Airbus announced plans to deliver more than one aircraft per week to India, persisting with expansion despite engine-supply challenges and domestic carrier capacity constraints—developments that further complicate titanium sourcing.

The Reality of Diversification

Boeing reportedly began diversifying away from Russian titanium after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Airbus, by contrast, remains heavily reliant on Russian supply.

Globally, China produced around 100,000 t of titanium in 2013—twice the combined output of Russia and Japan at the time—making it the world’s largest producer. Japan ranked third, with Osaka Titanium Technologies standing as the world’s second-largest producer of titanium sponge.

The Metalnomist Commentary: An Unfinished Dilemma

Europe’s struggle over Russian titanium sponge epitomizes the knotty realities of modern supply chains. Between economic sanctions and security imperatives, between industrial competitiveness and moral principle, Europe has yet to find a definitive answer.

With CBAM’s full force arriving in 2026, higher carbon-cost pass-throughs on Russian metals seem likely, intensifying pressure to rewire supply. Yet, as Airbus’s position illustrates, displacing Russian titanium in the short term remains daunting.

The gap between industrial necessity and political sanction endures—witness VSMPO-AVISMA’s August 2025 statement that it stands ready to resume cooperation with Boeing. For now, Europe must navigate this dilemma with prudence: balancing sanction principles, industrial realities, and emergent environmental rules—while accelerating the use of recycled titanium wherever feasible.

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output begins at Spectro Alloys

EGA

Capacity, timeline, and circular aluminum strategy

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output begins at Rosemount after the Spectro Alloys expansion. The first phase targets 55,000 tonnes. EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output strengthens regional recycled aluminum supply.

The $71 million project lifts site capacity to 165,000 tonnes annually. The expanded facility produces recycled aluminum ingots and billets. EGA owns 80% of EGA Spectro Alloys, ensuring control over operations.

Management expects full production by the first quarter of 2026. The phased ramp supports quality and customer qualifications. Customers gain reliable secondary billet for automotive and extrusion demand.

U.S. growth plans and market implications

EGA plans a $4 billion primary aluminum plant in Oklahoma. That smelter targets 600,000 tonnes per year. The U.S. footprint spans recycling and primary metal, improving supply optionality.

Recycled billet reduces carbon intensity and energy costs. As a result, buyers meet tightening sustainability requirements. Integrated sourcing should stabilize lead times and alloy consistency.

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output complements U.S. primary ambitions. Therefore, North American buyers gain supply security and product diversity. The combined strategy supports long-term customer partnerships.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This expansion pairs circular feedstock with a coming primary smelter. Execution hinges on scrap availability, energy pricing, and extrusion demand. Watch qualification timelines and the Oklahoma financing path.

Rio Tinto Hydropower Investment of $1.2 Billion Secures Low-Carbon Aluminum Future

Rio tinto Aluminium

Rio Tinto hydropower investment reaches $1.2 billion for modernizing the Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Quebec, Canada. The massive Rio Tinto hydropower upgrade represents the mining giant's largest investment in hydroelectric assets since the 1950s, targeting sustainable aluminum production at its Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations through 2032.

Comprehensive Modernization Enhances Production Capacity

Rio Tinto hydropower modernization encompasses extensive infrastructure improvements across multiple facility components. The project will replace electrical and mechanical equipment throughout the Isle-Maligne plant while constructing facility extensions and new mechanical workshops. Additionally, engineers will improve water intake systems and hydraulic passages to optimize power generation efficiency.

Meanwhile, the upgrade includes critical spillway modifications enabling year-round operations during Canadian winter conditions. These enhancements ensure continuous power supply for aluminum smelting operations regardless of seasonal weather challenges. The comprehensive scope demonstrates Rio Tinto's commitment to long-term operational reliability in Quebec's challenging climate.

Strategic Investment Supports Integrated Aluminum Operations

However, the Isle-Maligne facility serves as a cornerstone for Rio Tinto's extensive Quebec aluminum infrastructure. The Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations include one alumina refinery, five wholly owned aluminum smelters, and six hydropower plants. These integrated facilities account for nearly half of Rio Tinto's global aluminum output, making reliable power generation essential.

Therefore, the modernization project directly impacts Rio Tinto's competitive position in North American aluminum markets. Sebastien Ross, Rio Tinto Aluminium's managing director for Atlantic operations, emphasized that the investment ensures long-term competitiveness for Canadian and American customers. The low-carbon aluminum production capability provides significant marketing advantages in environmentally conscious markets.

Decades-Long Commitment to Sustainable Metal Production

Furthermore, the $1.2 billion investment timeline extends through 2032, demonstrating Rio Tinto's long-term commitment to Quebec operations. The hydroelectric power source enables low-carbon aluminum production, aligning with global sustainability trends and regulatory requirements. This positioning strengthens Rio Tinto's market differentiation in premium aluminum segments.

As a result, the modernization project reinforces Quebec's role as a strategic aluminum production hub for North American markets. The combination of abundant hydroelectric resources, existing infrastructure, and skilled workforce creates competitive advantages that justify substantial capital investment in facility upgrades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto's $1.2 billion hydropower investment exemplifies how integrated mining companies leverage renewable energy assets to maintain competitive advantages in commodity markets. The project's scale and timeline demonstrate the capital intensity required to modernize aging industrial infrastructure while positioning aluminum operations for decades of low-carbon production in increasingly sustainability-focused markets.

Novelis, TSR Forge 3-Year Partnership for Aluminum Scrap Supply in Push for Low-Carbon Future

TSR Recycling

In a pivotal move toward sustainability, US-based aluminum manufacturer and recycler Novelis has announced a three-year agreement with European scrap processing leader TSR Recycling. This strategic partnership will secure a stable supply of approximately 75,000 metric tons of end-of-life, pre-sorted, and processed aluminum scrap annually, supporting Novelis’ mission to deliver low-carbon aluminum sheet for automotive applications.

With Novelis recycling around 700,000 metric tons of aluminum scrap in Europe last year, the company aims to expand this figure by an additional 50,000 metric tons, boosting its green production capacity. TSR Recycling, well-versed in the processing of both ferrous and non-ferrous scrap, has long collaborated with Novelis, and this agreement further solidifies their shared commitment to a sustainable, low-emission future for the metals industry.

A Rising Demand for Recycled Material

The agreement reflects an intensifying demand for recycled aluminum as part of the global shift toward sustainable feedstock in metal production. Aluminum producers, increasingly pressured to lower scope 2 emissions, are prioritizing materials with high recycled content. Novelis has taken a proactive approach, working closely with automotive clients to integrate both pre- and post-consumer scrap into its high-recycled-content aluminum alloys. "Availability of end-of-life material is crucial as Novelis is constantly developing innovative solutions with its automotive customers," the company stated, highlighting the importance of a reliable scrap supply to support greener, circular manufacturing.

This partnership positions Novelis and TSR at the forefront of an industry shift where sustainability isn't just a strategy but a growing imperative driven by regulatory changes, consumer expectations, and an accelerating demand for low-emission products in the automotive sector.

Canadian October Aluminum Output Declines Year-on-Year but Remains Ahead for 2023

Canadian aluminium

Canada's molten aluminum and aluminum alloy production in October 2023 saw a slight decline compared to the same period last year. According to government data, total production reached 277,600 metric tonnes (t), down from 283,600t in October 2022. The decrease was attributed to a dip in molten aluminum production, which fell to 274,100t from 280,200t. However, aluminum alloy production increased marginally by 60t to 3,464t.

Despite the month-over-month decline, Canada's year-to-date aluminum production for 2023 stood at 2.785 million tonnes, surpassing the 2.715 million tonnes produced in the same period last year, highlighting sustained growth in overall output for the year.

Canada's Key Role in U.S. Aluminum Supply Chain

Canada continues to play a critical role in supplying aluminum to the United States. In October, Canada accounted for over two-thirds of the 354,600 tonnes of unwrought aluminum imported by the U.S., delivering approximately 241,400 tonnes, according to Census Bureau data. This underscores Canada’s significance in meeting U.S. demand for primary aluminum and aluminum alloys, which are vital to industries like automotive, aerospace, and construction.

EGA to Acquire Majority Stake in US-based Spectro Alloys, Expanding Into Secondary Aluminum Market

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the UAE's primary aluminum producer, is set to acquire an 80% stake in Spectro Alloys, a Minnesota-based secondary aluminum smelter. This move marks a strategic expansion into the U.S. market, bolstering EGA’s presence in a region that accounted for over a quarter of its global aluminum sales in 2023, equating to 550,000 metric tonnes.

The acquisition of Spectro Alloys will significantly enhance EGA's capabilities in the secondary aluminum sector, which involves the production of aluminum primarily from recycled scrap. This market is poised for substantial growth, with estimates suggesting that recycled aluminum will drive 60% of global aluminum supply growth by 2030, increasing to 70% between 2030 and 2040.

This latest acquisition aligns with EGA’s broader strategy to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable aluminum. In May, EGA acquired German specialty foundry Leichtmetall, which has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tonnes. Additionally, EGA is constructing a recycling plant in the UAE, set to produce 170,000 tonnes of aluminum billets annually from both pre- and post-consumer scrap.

Spectro Alloys, with its current production capacity of 110,000 tonnes of aluminum ingots per year, is also expanding. The company began construction in March on an expansion project that will add 55,000 tonnes of billet production capacity in its first phase.

The transaction, pending regulatory approval, is expected to be finalized this quarter. Financial details of the deal have not been disclosed.

Impact of Rebate Repeal on China's Aluminum Exports

China Aluminum

In November, China saw a significant spike in aluminum exports, triggered by the government's sudden cancellation of a 13% export tax rebate on aluminum fabricated products. According to data from China's General Administrator of Customs, the country exported a hefty 669,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. This figure marks a 37% increase compared to November last year and a 16% rise from the previous month of October.

Surge in Exports Due to Policy Change

The announcement on November 15 to end the rebate, effective December 1, propelled exporters to accelerate their shipments. This strategic move was aimed at maximizing profits before the new policy rendered some exporting activities unprofitable. The abrupt policy change prompted a rush among manufacturers and exporters to push out as much product as possible within the short window, significantly influencing trade flows.

Future Outlook: A Sharp Decline Expected

Market analysts predict a steep decline in China's aluminum exports starting December. Without the financial cushion of the export tax rebate, the cost dynamics of exporting aluminum products from China are expected to shift dramatically, potentially slowing down the country's aluminum export momentum. This anticipated drop will likely reshape global aluminum supply chains and could affect global aluminum prices.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline Slightly in October

US Aluminum

US imports of unwrought aluminum decreased in October 2024 compared to the same period last year, with notable reductions from South Africa and Qatar.

Marginal Decline in October Imports

The United States imported 355,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum under harmonized tariff code 7601 in October 2024, a slight decrease from 362,000 tonnes in October 2023, according to US customs data. This reflects the ongoing adjustments in the global aluminum supply chain.

Major Shifts Among Key Suppliers

• South Africa, the fourth-largest supplier, experienced a significant drop, with shipments halving to 14,000 tonnes from 27,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Qatar’s aluminum exports to the US plummeted by 11,000 tonnes to a modest 4,000 tonnes.
• In contrast, India saw the largest year-over-year increase, sending 20,000 tonnes, up by 17,000 tonnes.
• Canada, the leading supplier of US aluminum, accounted for approximately 68% of total imports, delivering 241,000 tonnes in October—an increase of 7,000 tonnes from the previous year.

Year-to-Date Trends

From January to October 2024, total US imports of unwrought aluminum reached 3.34 million tonnes, marking a 5.3% decline compared to 3.53 million tonnes during the same period in 2023.

• Australia registered the sharpest contraction, with exports narrowing to 60,000 tonnes, down from 199,000 tonnes.
• UAE shipments also decreased significantly, totaling 382,000 tonnes, down from 479,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Canada bucked the trend with a year-to-date increase, supplying 2.3 million tonnes, up from 2.2 million tonnes.

Global Market Implications

The shifts in US aluminum imports highlight changing dynamics in global trade and production capacities. Canada’s dominant position reflects its proximity and trade agreements, while reductions from South Africa and Qatar underscore broader supply challenges. India’s surge in exports signals its growing role in meeting US demand, likely supported by competitive pricing and capacity expansions.

Century Aluminum Sees Q2 Shipment Decline, Anticipates Q3 Recovery Boost

Century Aluminum, a leading producer of primary aluminum, reported a decrease in shipments for the second quarter, though it remains optimistic about a rebound in the third quarter. The company expects that higher aluminum prices and increased demand for domestic billet products will drive recovery, despite a drop in overall production.

In the second quarter, Century Aluminum's shipments fell to 167,908 metric tonnes (t), down from 173,649t during the same period last year. The decline was felt across all operations, including its key U.S. facilities in Sebree, Kentucky, and Mt. Holly, South Carolina. Combined, these facilities shipped 93,805t in the quarter, a decrease from 97,224t in the previous year. The company's Icelandic smelter at Grundartangi also saw a drop in primary aluminum shipments, falling to 74,103t from 76,425t a year ago.

Despite the downturn, Century Aluminum's Sebree facility operated at full capacity, producing at 100% of its 220,000t annual capacity. Mt. Holly operated at 75% of its 230,000t annual capacity, while the Grundartangi plant maintained 100% of its 320,000t annual capacity.

During the quarter, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on billet imports from 14 countries, which Century Aluminum believes will spur domestic demand. The company’s Sebree and Mt. Holly plants have a combined billet and slab capacity of 295,000t annually, and the decision is expected to provide significant support to these operations.

In addition to market dynamics, Century Aluminum noted that alumina prices are currently at a two-year high, driven by supply disruptions in Australia and increased regulation in China. These factors have pushed the cost of alumina, a key input for aluminum production, to account for a higher percentage of production costs than usual.

In the third quarter, Century’s Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica faced disruptions due to Hurricane Beryl, though operations have since stabilized at 80% of the refinery’s 1.2 million lbs/year capacity. However, damage to the main export port in Clarendon Parish forced the company to reroute shipments and declare force majeure on alumina deliveries.

Financially, Century Aluminum reported a 2.5% drop in second-quarter revenue to $561 million, with a loss of $6.7 million, a sharp contrast to the $6.6 million profit recorded in the same period last year.

Alcoa aluminum output rises as alumina and bauxite slip

Alcoa Aluminum

Alcoa aluminum output increased in the second quarter despite upstream weakness and tariff pressure. The Brazil Alumar ramp-up offset delays at Spain’s San Ciprián smelter and stabilized smelting utilization. Management maintained 2025 aluminum production guidance at 2.3–2.5 million tonnes, signaling operational confidence. However, shipments lagged as the restart pause and trade frictions disrupted flows across key corridors. Alcoa aluminum output momentum nevertheless underpins a cautious but improving outlook for margins.

Tariffs reshape shipments and guidance

Tariffs continue to weigh on realized economics and delivery patterns across North America. Alcoa cut full-year shipment guidance to 2.5–2.6 million tonnes to reflect power and logistics headwinds. It also expects about $90 million of tariff costs in the third quarter, pressuring profitability. Canadian metal was redirected away from the United States to mitigate incremental import charges. Peers face similar headwinds, confirming broader cost inflation across global aluminum supply chains. As a result, Alcoa aluminum output strength must translate into disciplined commercial execution.

Upstream constraints and sourcing strategy

Bauxite and alumina production declined as the Kwinana refinery closure reduced available refining capacity. Even so, Alcoa kept 2025 alumina production guidance at 9.5–9.7 million tonnes, highlighting operational flexibility. To honor contracts, the firm will ship more alumina than it produces through third-party sourcing. This strategy preserves customer commitments while the San Ciprián restart progresses toward mid-2026 completion. Meanwhile, the Brazil Alumar ramp provides volume resilience across the smelting portfolio.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alcoa is leaning on Alumar’s ramp and agile sourcing to bridge upstream gaps and tariff friction. Watch the cadence of San Ciprián’s restart, tariff pass-through in contracts, and regional premia trends. If physical tightness persists, disciplined sales mix could translate output gains into durable cash flow.