Century Aluminum Output Set to Dip in 2026 as Smelter Restarts Reshape Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum output is expected to decline slightly in 2026 as the company balances reduced Icelandic production with a restart of idled capacity in South Carolina. The outlook shows how primary aluminum supply remains sensitive to potline reliability, power infrastructure, and restart timing.

The US-based producer expects to ship 630,000t of primary aluminum in 2026, down 2.6pc from 647,112t in 2025. Shipments also fell 5pc in 2025 from the previous year, reflecting operational disruption and uneven production across the company’s smelter network.

Century Aluminum output was affected by an electrical equipment failure at its Nordural smelter in Iceland on 21 October. The incident stopped production at one of the site’s two potlines. The company expects to restart the second potline by the end of April and return close to full production by the end of July.

Iceland Disruption Weighs on Primary Aluminum Shipments

Nordural is expected to produce 215,000t of aluminum in 2026, down 21.8pc from 275,000t in 2025. This decline will be the main drag on Century Aluminum output, even as the company works to restore production during the first half of the year.

The disruption highlights the importance of electrical reliability in primary aluminum production. Smelters depend on continuous power and stable potline operations. Any equipment failure can reduce output quickly because aluminum smelting is capital-intensive, energy-intensive, and difficult to interrupt without operational consequences.

Fourth-quarter production already reflected that pressure. Century’s total aluminum production fell 15.9pc year on year to 140,257t in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the company benefited from stronger aluminum prices as the LME three-month settlement rose 16.8pc during 2025 to $2,989/t.

Mt Holly Restart Supports US Aluminum Capacity Strategy

The Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina will partially offset the Icelandic decline. Century plans to restart more than 50,000t of idled production beginning in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter. The site is expected to produce 200,000t in 2026, up 28.2pc from 156,000t in 2025.

This restart matters for US aluminum capacity because domestic primary aluminum supply remains strategically important for industrial resilience. Once the Nordural and Mt Holly projects are completed, Century expects average production capacity closer to 750,000 t/yr. That would improve the company’s supply position if execution remains on schedule.

Century is also positioning itself for longer-term US growth. The company confirmed that its $500mn US Department of Energy grant will support its joint development project with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the sale of its idled Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data center infrastructure developer TeraWulf reflects a shift in how legacy industrial power assets are being redeployed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s 2026 outlook shows that aluminum supply strategy is no longer only about price recovery. It is increasingly about power security, restart discipline, and whether the US can rebuild competitive primary smelting capacity.