DRC Copper Output Growth Accelerates as Cobalt Exports Collapse

DRC Copper mining

DRC copper output growth strengthened in 2025 as major producers lifted volumes across the country. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 3.4mn t of copper in 2025, up from 3.1mn t in 2024. That marks a 10pc annual increase. As a result, DRC copper output growth remains one of the most important supply stories in the global copper market.

This increase matters because the DRC is already one of the world’s key copper jurisdictions. Higher output from CMOC, Ivanhoe, and other major operators supported the national result. The country is becoming even more important to global copper supply. Therefore, DRC copper production 2025 confirms the DRC’s rising weight in the energy and industrial metals chain.

CMOC led the market last year. Its Tenke Fungurume mine produced 519,000t of copper, while Kisanfu added 228,000t. Kamoa-Kakula, the joint venture between Ivanhoe and Zijin, produced 400,000t. Consequently, DRC copper output growth is being driven by a concentrated group of very large operations.

DRC Copper Production 2025 Shows Strong Mine-Level Momentum

DRC copper production 2025 reflects strong mine-level performance from the country’s biggest operators. Large-scale projects continued to deliver higher volumes even as the market remained focused on geopolitical risk and resource nationalism. That gives the DRC a stronger position in global copper negotiations. As a result, copper is becoming an even more strategic pillar of the country’s mining economy.

This growth also improves the DRC’s relevance to western supply chains. Copper demand remains closely tied to electrification, grid buildout, and industrial investment. Countries and companies looking for large-scale copper supply cannot ignore the DRC. Therefore, DRC copper output growth is not only a mining statistic. It is a strategic supply-chain signal.

Congo Cobalt Export Ban Has Changed the Other Side of the Metals Story

Congo cobalt export ban created a very different picture for the country’s other key battery metal. Cobalt shipments fell by almost 80pc in 2025 because of the export restriction. The government imposed the ban after global oversupply drove cobalt prices to record lows. As a result, the DRC used policy intervention to support value rather than pure export volume.

This matters because the DRC remains the world’s largest cobalt producer. Cobalt is still important for electric vehicles and electronics, even as battery chemistry trends evolve. The government has since moved toward a quota system after the export ban. Therefore, Congo cobalt export ban shows that the DRC is willing to manage supply more actively when market conditions weaken.

The US-DRC minerals agreement adds another strategic layer. Officials said the December cooperation deal could improve investor confidence in minerals exploration. The agreement gives the United States preferential status to source critical minerals from the DRC and process them for global markets. Consequently, the DRC is trying to combine stronger copper growth with deeper geopolitical relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC now presents two very different metals stories at once. Copper is expanding through giant mines, while cobalt is being managed through policy restraint. That combination shows the country is no longer just a resource exporter. It is becoming a more active force in shaping how critical minerals reach the global market.

China’s Gallium Expansion Slows as Germanium Supply Diversifies: Key Market Insights

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA)

The Chinese gallium (Ga) production expansion has encountered significant hurdles, while germanium (Ge) supply sources are increasingly diversifying to mitigate feedstock shortages. According to Li Yilan, a senior analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), the pace of new gallium production projects in China has slowed due to decreasing Ga content in bauxite, the primary feedstock for gallium extraction. As a result, many production projects have been delayed, and some that did launch have scaled back or halted operations altogether. However, the diversification of germanium supply chains signals a shift in how the industry is adapting to global demand pressures.

Slowdown in Gallium Production Expansion

China’s gallium output for 2024 is forecast to reach 950 tons, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, the growth rate of gallium production capacity has slowed considerably. In particular, China’s gallium capacity rose by 40% this year, but the full realization of this capacity has been hindered by difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock from bauxite. The lower Ga content in bauxite has made it harder for producers to maintain a consistent supply of gallium, forcing many projects to delay their timelines or reduce output.

The demand for gallium, particularly from the magnet manufacturing sector (which consumes 46% of the metal), has increased gradually over the past two years. Additionally, the rise in demand for gallium oxide phosphor in electronics has offset the reduced demand from the solar cell sector. This demand shift has been a key factor in the slight increase in Chinese gallium exports, which rose by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 48.4 tons. This increase is partly due to disruptions in last year’s exports caused by the country’s export control schemes, which limited overseas shipments.

Germanium Supply Diversification and Emerging Markets

While gallium production faces slowdowns, germanium’s supply chain is showing signs of diversification, especially as producers look beyond China for feedstock. Tight feedstock availability in China has prompted several producers to seek alternative sources for germanium. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines, has begun exporting germanium concentrates to Belgium. This move is part of a broader trend of extracting germanium from non-traditional sources, such as copper-cobalt ores in the Congo and coal and nickel in Indonesia. These new extraction routes are expected to increase the overall supply of germanium.

China’s germanium output is projected to exceed 200 tons in 2024, up from 190 tons the previous year. Strong demand from the infrared and solar cell sectors, which use germanium in various applications, has driven prices upward in recent months. However, the rapid rise in prices has caused a significant drop in exports. Between January and September 2024, China exported just 18.8 tons of germanium, a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Higher prices and more stringent export license procedures have pushed international buyers to explore other sources for germanium, further boosting the trend toward diversified supply.

Conclusion

The global markets for gallium and germanium are undergoing significant shifts, with production challenges in China affecting gallium’s expansion and leading to a diversification of germanium supply chains. While gallium demand remains steady, especially from magnet and phosphor industries, production issues are slowing the pace of growth. On the other hand, germanium's increasing extraction from countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia is easing the reliance on Chinese supply. The metal markets are adapting, and these dynamics will likely continue to influence pricing and production trends in the coming years.

Zijin Mining Boosts Copper Production in 2024 with Strong Serbian and African Output

Zijin Mining

Zijin expands copper output with Serbian and DRC project gains

Zijin Mining increased its copper production in 2024, driven by higher output from its Serbian mines and African operations. The company produced 1.068mn tonnes of mined copper last year, up 6.1% from 2023. Notably, combined production from Serbia's Cukaru Peki and Bor mines rose to 292,900t, up from 238,900t a year earlier. Zijin aims to boost these Serbian mines to 450,000t/year, although it has not revealed a timeline.

Meanwhile, its flagship Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo began phase three production in August. This will raise copper capacity to 600,000t/year by 2025, up from 437,000t in 2024.

New mines and future capacity targets underline long-term growth

In China, Zijin plans to launch phase two of the Julong copper mine in late 2025, expanding output to 300,000–350,000t/year. Phase three will raise Julong’s capacity to 600,000t/year, though construction dates remain undisclosed. Additionally, the 76,000t/year Zhunuo copper mine in Tibet will start operating by late 2026.

Refined copper production rose 3.2% to 474,570t in 2024, while zinc and lead volumes saw mixed performance. Zijin produced 451,474t of mined zinc and lead, down 3.3%, but refined zinc output rose 11% to 371,057t.

The company also expanded molybdenum and tungsten production, though cobalt output dropped 63% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2025, Zijin targets 1.15mn t of copper, 440,000t of zinc and lead, and 40,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zijin’s 2024 performance confirms its status as a global copper powerhouse. Strategic mine expansions in Serbia, Congo, and China signal long-term ambitions to dominate global refined and mined copper supply. Its diversification into lithium and molybdenum positions the firm to ride the clean energy and battery metals boom well into 2030.

South Kivu Governor Suspends All Mining Operations

The governor of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) South Kivu province, Jean-Jacques Purusi Sadiki, has halted all mining activities in the region, significantly impacting the production of tantalite, tin, and gold. This directive, issued on July 18 and shared via social media platform X, demands all mining companies, businesses, and cooperatives cease operations and vacate mining sites within 72 hours.

Governor Sadiki emphasized that the suspension aims to restore order, ensure the traceability of minerals, and protect human lives. A meeting with mining stakeholders is scheduled for July 30 to discuss the state of mining operations in the province.

South Kivu is a crucial producer of tantalite, essential for the electronics and aerospace sectors, as well as gold and cassiterite (tin ore). These minerals are classified as conflict minerals, often linked to funding armed conflicts in the DRC.

Multiple tantalite mining operations in South Kivu have ceased production following the governor's order, as confirmed by Metalnomist. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation. "The announcement was really bad… but these situations seem to work themselves out," noted one market participant.

The halt in mining operations is expected to exacerbate the already strained tantalite supply chain, worsened by ongoing conflicts in neighboring North Kivu province. In April, the M23 militia group seized Rubaya, a key mining town, disrupting essential transport routes. "Production in Congo is falling like a stone," remarked another market participant to Metalnomist.

Despite the supply constraints, tantalite prices have been declining. As of July 23, Metalnomist assessed prices at $74-78/lb cif main port, down 5% from earlier this month. This decrease is attributed to weaker demand from Chinese smelters and the electronics sector, as well as sourcing concerns from the DRC and Rwanda.

Chinese Firms Intensify Investments in Cu-Co Mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo

In a strategic maneuver to secure a steady supply of crucial resources, Chinese enterprises are significantly amplifying their investments in the copper-cobalt reserves of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This initiative addresses China's limited cobalt resources and the enduringly strong copper market.

Leading the charge are prominent entities such as diversified metals producer CMOC, China Railways Resources, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Norin Mining, Excellent Mining, and Huayou Cobalt. According to data compiled by Metalnomist, the DRC produced approximately 167,000 metric tons of cobalt feedstock in 2023, with Chinese mining companies contributing around 59% of this total output. Presently, Chinese investments account for over 62% of the DRC’s total cobalt reserves, a remarkable increase from roughly 25% in 2016. This proportion is anticipated to expand further following Norin Mining's acquisition of Dubai-based Chemaf Resources (CRL).

China’s dependency on imported cobalt, which constitutes nearly 99% of its primary feedstock, has propelled these extensive investments. The DRC remains the foremost supplier of cobalt feedstock to China, accounting for 84% of China's total imports in 2023, trailed by Indonesia (10%), Papua New Guinea (1.6%), and New Caledonia (1.5%).

This domestic resource shortfall has driven Chinese mining firms to intensify their investments in the DRC’s copper and cobalt assets over recent years. CMOC, a global titan in mining cobalt, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and niobium with operations spanning China, the DRC, Australia, and Brazil, acquired a 56% stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine (TFM) from US-based Freeport-McMoRan in 2016, later increasing its stake to 80% in 2017. Additionally, CMOC finalized its acquisition of the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine (KFM) in December 2020.

With copper prices maintaining an upward trajectory since early this year, achieving new heights on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and London Metals Exchange (LME) in mid-May, mining firms have been further incentivized to augment their investments in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines.

Norin Mining's acquisition of CRL, which controls two copper-cobalt mines in the DRC, underscores this trend. Norin Mining Kingco, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Norin Mining, has entered into a share purchase agreement with CRL’s parent company Chemaf to acquire all of Chemaf's shares in CRL. The financial details of the transaction remain undisclosed, yet CRL anticipates completing the deal in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nevertheless, the state mining company Gecamines has expressed opposition to the sale of Chemaf Resources, potentially delaying the acquisition process. A source familiar with the matter noted, "The acquisition is expected to be delayed for a while because of Gecamines' opposition, but it will probably be resolved later without significantly impacting the acquisition."

Chemaf SA is progressing with the expansion of the Etoile mine (Etoile phase 2) to process mixed and sulphide ore, alongside developing a new Mutoshi mine. Both projects, in advanced stages of development, have the potential to collectively produce over 75,000 metric tons of copper and 20,000 metric tons of cobalt hydroxide annually. These new ventures are expected to commence production in 2025, post-acquisition.

Strong Fundamentals to Support Niobium Columbite Prices in 2025

Columbite

The niobium columbite market has witnessed steady price growth over the past two years, driven by rising demand from the aerospace and defense sectors and supply constraints in Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While firm fundamentals are expected to support prices in 2025, further increases may face resistance from smelters shifting to ferro-niobium as a cost-effective alternative.

Aerospace and Defense Demand Driving Niobium Prices

Niobium plays a critical role in high-temperature alloys used in jet engines, hypersonic missiles, and satellite components, making it essential for the aerospace and defense industries.

• Global military spending surged to $2.4 trillion in 2023, a 6.8% increase from 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

• Geopolitical tensions—including Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Red Sea, and China’s increased military drills around Taiwan—have fueled higher defense budgets worldwide, supporting demand for niobium-based alloys.

One of the key niobium alloys, C-103, is composed of 89% niobium, 10% hafnium, and 1% titanium and is crucial in hypersonic missile technology, jet engine afterburners, and space applications. The US Department of Defense recently awarded a $26.4 million grant to Global Advanced Metals under the Defense Production Act program to boost high-purity niobium oxide production at its Pennsylvania plant, further reinforcing long-term demand.

Supply Constraints in Brazil and the DRC Impacting Columbite Prices

While demand-side factors have bolstered niobium prices, supply disruptions have also played a crucial role in the market’s upward trajectory.

• Brazilian niobium columbite supply tightened following President Lula da Silva’s crackdown on illegal mining in the Amazon. Although the primary focus has been on gold and zinc mining, industry participants have reported higher niobium columbite prices and supply disruptions since Lula’s election in 2022.

• Conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to reduced tantalite supply, which is a valuable alternative source of niobium for Chinese smelters. With tantalite shortages driving up prices, niobium concentrates have become even more expensive, exacerbating supply concerns.

As a result of these factors, columbite prices averaged $18.20/lb CIF main ports in 2024, significantly higher than the five-year average of $14.50/lb.

Price Outlook and Smelter Substitution Risk

While market fundamentals remain bullish, further niobium columbite price increases may face resistance as smelters consider switching to ferro-niobium to reduce costs. Historically, when columbite prices exceed $18/lb, Chinese smelters have shifted to ferro-niobium, capping price gains beyond that level. This pattern suggests that while prices are likely to remain firm in 2025, further spikes may be short-lived if substitution pressures increase.

Conclusion

With rising global defense spending, growing aerospace applications, and constrained supply from key producers, the niobium columbite market is well-positioned for continued price support in 2025. However, potential price resistance from Chinese smelters switching to ferro-niobium could limit further upside movement. As geopolitical tensions persist and global demand for high-performance alloys rises, niobium remains a critical material to watch in the strategic metals market.

US sanctions tantalum traders over DRC coltan supply

Congo Mining

US sanctions tantalum traders after linking coltan shipments to armed groups in the DRC. The action targets CDMC in Congo and Hong Kong firms East Rise and Star Dragon. As a result, US sanctions tantalum traders raises urgent questions for electronics supply chains. Therefore, OEMs must reassess sourcing, because US sanctions tantalum traders heightens conflict-mineral compliance risk.

What the sanctions cover and why they matter

The Treasury sanctioned CDMC for aiding PARECO-FF through mining, illegal taxation, and smuggling. It also designated East Rise and Star Dragon for trading those concentrates. Meanwhile, the US listed PARECO-FF for threatening DRC stability and committing abuses. These moves directly hit columbite-tantalite flows from Rubaya, a key tantalum hub.

Implications for tantalum, capacitors, and semiconductors

Eastern DRC supplies tantalite for capacitors and semiconductor components worldwide. Consequently, buyers face heightened due-diligence and banking restrictions. Trade finance, insurance, and logistics will tighten around flagged counterparties. However, compliant producers in the region could gain premiums if they prove traceability. Expect procurement to tilt toward audited smelters and alternative origins.

How OEMs and traders should respond now

Supply-chain teams should screen counterparties against sanctions lists immediately. They should also revalidate Responsible Minerals Assurance Program smelter statuses. As a result, contracts may require stronger warranties, incident reporting, and fallback sourcing. Inventory buffers of tantalum powder and wire can cushion short-term shocks. Finally, align public disclosures with conflict-minerals and ESG policies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sanctions on DRC-linked coltan trade will reverberate through capacitor supply chains. Expect firmer pricing for verified tantalum and longer qualification cycles. The winners will be operators with transparent chain-of-custody and diversified feed.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Glencore to Pay $152 Million Fine to Settle Bribery Investigation in Congo

Swiss-based commodities giant Glencore has agreed to pay approximately $152 million to settle a criminal investigation into bribery related to its business activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The case centers on a 2011 incident involving a Congolese public official and a business partner who allegedly bribed the official in connection with the acquisition of mining stakes.

The Swiss Attorney General's office found that Glencore had failed to implement adequate organizational measures to prevent the bribe. Although Glencore did not admit to these findings, the company has agreed not to appeal the summary penalty order issued by Swiss authorities.

The settlement includes a CHF$2 million ($2.3 million) fine and an additional $150 million in compensation, which reflects the estimated financial benefit obtained by Glencore’s business partner from the transaction. Notably, Swiss investigators did not find evidence that Glencore employees were aware of the bribery scheme, nor did they conclude that the company directly profited from the deal.

The bribery case is linked to the business partner's acquisition of minority stakes in two mining firms in the DRC from the state-owned mining company, Gecamines. According to Swiss authorities, these shares were purchased at a price "less than their value," raising concerns about the fairness of the transaction.

In a related investigation by Dutch prosecutors, the case was dismissed following the resolution of the Swiss probe. Glencore’s operations in the DRC include its Mutanda Mining subsidiary and the Kamoto Copper Company, a joint venture with Gecamines. The company has recently faced challenges in the region, with copper production falling by 9% and cobalt output dropping by 27% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.

This settlement marks another chapter in Glencore's ongoing legal and regulatory challenges as the company continues to navigate the complex and often controversial landscape of global mining and trading.

Mercuria Metals Project Financing Push Deepens Critical Minerals Strategy

Mercuria Metals

Mercuria metals project financing is set to increase sharply this year as the Swiss energy trader expands its role in copper, cobalt and other critical minerals. Chief executive Marco Dunand said the company will substantially increase pre-financing for mining projects, working more closely with producers and governments.

Mercuria metals project financing has become a major growth pillar since the company created its metals division in 2023. The unit began with copper in Zambia before expanding into cobalt and other strategic materials.

Mercuria metals project financing now supports a business that accounts for nearly 20% of group turnover. The company has already deployed almost $2bn, mainly in copper deals, and sees further growth in its project pipeline.

The strategy reflects a wider shift in commodity trading. Traders are no longer only moving material between buyers and sellers. They are increasingly financing production, securing offtake and shaping strategic mineral flows before material reaches the market.

Copper and Critical Minerals Move Trading Closer to Mining

Mercuria’s metals expansion started with copper because the market faces structural supply pressure. Copper demand is rising from grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial policy, while new mine supply remains difficult to develop.

Pre-financing gives Mercuria earlier access to material. By front-loading capital, the company can support producers while securing commercial positions in future supply.

This model is becoming more important as mining projects require larger capital commitments. Producers need liquidity for development, operations and expansion. Traders that can provide capital can gain offtake, marketing rights and long-term supply relationships.

Mercuria is also moving into cobalt and other critical minerals. These markets are smaller than copper but strategically important for batteries, superalloys, semiconductors, defence systems and advanced manufacturing.

The company’s partnership with Gecamines in the Democratic Republic of Congo shows this direction. Mercuria is working with the state miner to market critical minerals such as gallium and germanium from the Kipushi mine.

Gallium and germanium are high-value minor metals with concentrated supply chains and growing strategic importance. Their inclusion shows that Mercuria is targeting not only bulk base metals, but also thinly traded materials where supply security commands a premium.

Government Partnerships Become Strategic Supply Tools

Mercuria is expanding joint ventures with governments, including partnerships in Zambia and the DRC. This matters because critical minerals supply is increasingly shaped by state policy, not only commercial contracting.

Resource-rich governments want more value from minerals. Buyers want secure supply. Traders can sit between them by providing financing, logistics, marketing and access to global customers.

The model also fits a period of rising geopolitical competition. Western governments and manufacturers are looking for alternatives to China-linked supply chains, especially in copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other strategic materials.

Mercuria plans to raise at least $200mn in new financing in Asia to support liquidity. The company said sovereign firms, private equity and banks have strong appetite to finance metals projects.

The financing requirement highlights one important trade-off. Metals project financing can create stronger strategic positions, but it is more cash-intensive than traditional trading. It requires balance-sheet capacity, risk management and long-term confidence in mineral demand.

Mercuria said it does not expect regulatory constraints to limit expansion. That confidence suggests the company sees strong institutional demand for capital-backed critical minerals strategies.

For metals markets, the implications are significant. Trading houses with capital can influence which projects advance, which producers receive liquidity and where future metal flows are directed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercuria’s strategy shows that critical minerals trading is becoming a financing business. The winners will be firms that can combine capital, offtake, government relationships and supply-chain control before the market tightens further.

Copper Price Outlook Strengthens as Strategic Demand Supports $15,000/t Scenario

Traxys

Copper price outlook is shifting into a new regime as traders and miners argue that the metal can reach $15,000/t within the next two to three years. Traxys Group chief executive Mark Kristoff said benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange could plausibly touch that level over the next 24-36 months.

Copper price outlook is no longer being shaped only by traditional construction cycles, manufacturing indicators and visible inventories. Speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne said strategic demand, state stockpiling, sulphuric acid risk and artificial intelligence infrastructure are now carrying greater influence.

Copper price outlook has strengthened even though global visible inventories remain high on paper at around 1.9mn-2mn t. Market participants said this reflects a breakdown in the old relationship between warehouse stocks and price, as governments and industrial buyers increasingly treat copper as a policy metal.

The price rally above $13,000/t has aligned with forecasts from major trading houses such as Mercuria. But the more important point is structural: copper is now being priced as a strategic asset tied to electrification, grids, data centres, defence and national industrial policy.

Data Centres and Stockpiling Add a Strategic Premium

Copper’s identity is changing from “Dr Copper” to a policy metal. The old model treated copper as a broad indicator of construction, manufacturing and economic activity. That model is now too narrow.

Data centres and artificial intelligence are becoming major new demand drivers. The next decade could create 2mn-3mn t of additional copper demand from data centres alone. Associated grid reinforcement and power connections could require another 7mn-8mn t.

This demand is not optional. AI infrastructure needs power, cooling, cabling, transformers, substations and grid expansion. Copper sits at the centre of that buildout.

State stockpiling is also changing market behaviour. China’s inventory building and the US strategic push for copper supply are creating demand that does not move like normal industrial consumption.

This helps explain why copper prices remain near historic highs despite weakness in China’s property sector. Around a quarter of China’s copper demand was historically linked to housing, but newer demand channels are offsetting part of that drag.

Electrification, military demand, AI infrastructure and strategic reserves are now becoming more important to price formation. These forces make copper less cyclical than before and more exposed to policy decisions.

The US is also treating copper as a strategic material. Washington is trying to secure domestic and allied supply chains, especially as grid investment, manufacturing reshoring and defence priorities increase copper’s policy value.

Offtake structures are becoming more important in this environment. Copper is increasingly being tied to specific industrial strategies, not just traded as a floating global commodity.

That shift changes where value sits. Traders, miners and governments are no longer competing only for price advantage. They are competing for logistics, location, financing, offtake and control over final destination.

Sulphuric Acid Risk Exposes the Supply Side

The supply side remains the bigger constraint. Major mining groups continue to face falling ore grades, higher capital costs, long permitting timelines and more complex operating conditions.

Average copper grades have declined enough that some producers are processing ore closer to 0.5% copper. That means miners must move, crush and treat much more rock for each tonne of copper produced.

This raises costs and lengthens development timelines. It also makes new supply less responsive to price rallies. Even copper above $13,000/t does not quickly create new mines.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have become hidden constraints in the copper market. They are especially important for solvent extraction-electrowinning operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile.

SX-EW production accounts for around 17% of global copper supply. Prolonged sulphuric acid disruption could curtail around 125,000t of DRC output and put around 200,000t of Chilean output at risk in the second half of the year.

This risk matters because the DRC has been one of the most important sources of copper supply growth. Its high grades, flexible project scale and faster development potential make it central to global supply expectations.

However, much of the DRC’s leached copper depends on acid availability. If sulphur or sulphuric acid supply tightens, production costs can rise sharply and some output can become vulnerable.

The risk also hits at a sensitive point in the cycle. The market may show a projected surplus on paper, but that surplus can narrow quickly if input disruptions affect key growth regions.

This is why copper’s current pricing cannot be read only through visible stocks. Inventories may look comfortable, but operational supply chains are more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.

For copper buyers, the lesson is clear. Secure supply now depends on more than exchange access. It depends on geography, processing route, reagents, energy, logistics and policy exposure.

For miners, the opportunity is equally clear. Assets with high grades, reliable acid supply, integrated infrastructure and faster expansion potential will command a strategic premium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The $15,000/t copper scenario is not only a price forecast; it reflects a new industrial reality. Copper is becoming a strategic bottleneck for AI, grids and electrification, while acid and permitting risks limit how quickly supply can respond.

LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

DRC Suspends Cobalt Exports for Four Months to Address Global Oversupply

DRC

Temporary Export Ban Aims to Support Falling Cobalt Prices

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s largest cobalt producer, will halt all cobalt exports for four months. The decision, announced by mineral markets regulator Arecoms, seeks to counter falling cobalt prices driven by global oversupply. The suspension will apply to all cobalt exported from the DRC, regardless of whether it is produced by industrial, semi-industrial, or artisanal mining.

Market Skepticism and Past Precedents

Cobalt prices have declined steadily since 2022, mainly due to significant production growth in the DRC. China’s CMOC, now a major global copper and cobalt producer, has notably expanded its operations. Despite the new ban, many market participants remain cautious. The DRC has previously announced export bans that were either not enforced or only partially implemented. For now, copper exports will continue as usual, making the effectiveness of the new ban uncertain.

Industry Reactions and Supply Chain Risks

Traders warn that such sudden policy changes damage the DRC’s reputation as a reliable cobalt source. Concentrated supply from one country has discouraged investment in alternative cobalt sources. Industry stakeholders say the unpredictability of export restrictions increases risk across the global battery and metals supply chain.

Umicore’s Battery Materials Sales Plunge by 30% Amid EV Market Headwinds

Umicore

Northvolt collapse and weak demand weigh on Europe’s battery supply chain

Battery Materials Division Suffers Sharp Decline

Umicore reported a 30% drop in sales from its battery materials division in 2024, totaling €386 million. The Belgian chemical company cited declining demand across Europe and global weakness in electric vehicle (EV) sales as key drivers. Chief executive Bart Sap described the year as “sobering,” pointing to stalled EV adoption and strategic setbacks. As a result, Umicore paused development at its Canadian plant and tightened capital spending.

Northvolt Bankruptcy Disrupts Strategic Supply Agreement

A major blow came from the bankruptcy of Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt, which filed in March 2024. Northvolt had signed a long-term supply agreement with Umicore in 2021 for cathode active materials (CAMs). This deal was central to Umicore’s efforts to expand in Europe’s battery value chain. However, the fallout has delayed market ramp-up and disrupted regional supply ambitions. The company expects flat battery materials performance to continue through 2025.

Germanium Business Shows Resilience

Meanwhile, Umicore’s electro-optic division saw modest growth, led by demand for germanium-based products in aerospace and electronics. In addition, the firm benefited from recycling demand through its closed-loop germanium refining services. To strengthen feedstock security, Umicore partnered with STL, a subsidiary of Gecamines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Shipments from the Big Hills Tailing site began in January and are expected to continue monthly, supporting Umicore’s supply diversification.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Umicore’s performance in 2024 highlights the growing vulnerability of Europe’s battery ambitions. The collapse of Northvolt is a cautionary tale, exposing weaknesses in upstream coordination. While setbacks continue in battery materials, Umicore’s pivot to strategic germanium sourcing may offer short-term stability.

 

DRC Rejects M23 Rebel Ceasefire as Hoax Amid Escalating Conflict

DRC

UN Warns of Regional War as M23 Rebels Continue Advance in Eastern DRC

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has dismissed the recent ceasefire declaration by the M23 rebel group as a "hoax," citing the continued military actions in the region. This comes after M23 rebels seized another town in eastern DRC, intensifying the ongoing conflict and raising concerns ahead of upcoming mediation talks.

M23 Advances Despite Ceasefire Claim

The M23 rebel group, which the DRC accuses of being backed by Rwanda, has taken control of Nyabibwe, a town on the eastern shore of Lake Kivu. Nyabibwe lies south of Goma, which the M23 captured in late January. Following this, the rebels declared a unilateral ceasefire, supposedly to facilitate peace talks scheduled to take place in Tanzania on February 8, 2025. However, the DRC government believes that the ceasefire is merely a tactic to deceive the international community.

DRC Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner condemned the ceasefire, claiming it was meant to "hoodwink" the world. Wagner pointed out that, instead of withdrawing their forces, the M23 has continued its actions, further complicating the situation. She also threatened the use of force to reclaim Goma if the rebels fail to vacate the area.

Economic and Regional Implications of the Conflict

The UN has highlighted that the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC is largely driven by the control of the country’s vast natural resources. Goma, a major mineral trading hub, particularly for tantalum, tin, and tungsten, plays a crucial role in this struggle. In 2023, DRC’s tantalum concentrate production, also known as tantalite or coltan, reached 6,095 tonnes, according to the International Tin Supply Chain Initiative.

The UN also reported that Rubaya, a key coltan mining town controlled by M23 rebels, generates around $800,000 per month in taxes from its mineral production and trade. This economic significance adds to the stakes of the conflict, as control of such resources is vital for the parties involved.

Growing Regional Tensions and International Concerns

While M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka claimed that the group does not plan to expand its territorial control for the time being, the situation remains volatile. The upcoming peace talks, involving Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, are seen as a critical opportunity to address the crisis.

However, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed concerns about the escalating violence, warning that the M23 offensive could lead to a broader regional war. The conflict's impact could extend to the mining regions and potentially affect oil developments in neighboring Rwanda and Uganda. In response to the growing tensions, Uganda has deployed 2,000 soldiers into DRC, adding to the 4,000 troops already stationed in northeast DRC to combat the Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces.

MMG copper output 2025 hits seven-year high on Las Bambas surge

MMG

MMG copper output 2025 hit a seven-year high as the Chinese miner leveraged strong performance at Las Bambas in Peru. MMG copper output 2025 reached 506,899t, with growth underpinned by record ore mined, processed and recovered across its global portfolio. As a result, MMG copper output 2025 highlights how Chinese-backed assets are reshaping global copper supply and treatment charge dynamics.

Las Bambas and Khoemacau anchor MMG’s copper growth

Las Bambas drove most of the increase in MMG copper output 2025. The Peruvian mine produced 410,834t of copper in concentrate, up 27pc year on year. Higher ore mining rates, improved plant throughput and stronger recovery combined to lift site performance.

MMG set a 400,000t production target for Las Bambas in 2026, signalling confidence in the mine’s stability. However, community risks and logistics in Peru will remain key watchpoints for traders and smelters. Higher sustained output from Las Bambas will reinforce Peru’s position as a core supplier to Asian and Atlantic copper markets.

Khoemacau in Botswana added new growth momentum to MMG’s profile. The mine delivered 42,120t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 36pc from 2024. MMG plans to expand Khoemacau’s capacity to 130,000 t/yr by 2028, with longer-term potential to reach 200,000 t/yr after further studies.

DRC expansion and tightening treatment charges

MMG’s Kinsevere operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo contributed to the stronger MMG copper output 2025. Copper cathode production at Kinsevere rose 18pc to 52,791t. An expansion project, which delivered its first cathode in late 2024, should push annual output to 65,000–75,000t in 2026. This reinforces the DRC’s role as a key growth hub for refined copper supply.

Meanwhile, MMG reported a mixed picture in other base metals. Zinc output increased by 6pc to 232,060t, while lead production slipped 5pc to 39,608t. However, the broader copper concentrate market remained the tightest stress point for smelters. Concentrate supply lagged new smelting capacity, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) deep into negative territory.

Smelter TC/RC benchmarks turned sharply lower through 2025, reflecting a continued shortage of clean copper concentrate. The Metalnomist smelter purchase index fell from slightly positive levels in early 2025 to significantly negative by year-end. Trader purchase indices weakened even further as competition intensified for spot tonnes. This environment favours well-positioned miners like MMG with scalable, low-cost concentrate streams.

Strategic implications for global copper supply

The step-up in MMG copper output 2025 underscores the influence of Chinese state-linked capital in strategic copper regions. Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere together form a diversified platform across Peru, Botswana and the DRC. This geographic spread reduces single-asset risk while deepening China’s indirect exposure to offshore copper units.

For smelters, MMG’s growth slightly eases concentrate tightness but does not fully resolve structural deficit. New Asian and European smelting projects continue to outpace mine supply growth, keeping downward pressure on TC/RCs. As a result, smelters face margin squeeze unless by-product credits or premiums can offset weaker treatment terms.

Downstream, strong MMG copper output 2025 supports long-term energy transition demand. Additional tonnes from Las Bambas and future Khoemacau expansions will feed wiring, renewables, EVs and grid investments. However, the aggressive project pipeline also depends on stable permitting, local community relations and predictable fiscal regimes in host countries.

Focus keyphrases: MMG copper output 2025, Las Bambas copper, Khoemacau Botswana copper, Kinsevere DRC copper, copper concentrate TC/RCs, global copper supply growth

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMG copper output 2025 reinforces the miner’s position as a pivotal supplier into a structurally tight copper concentrate market. While rising volumes from Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere are welcome news for smelters and traders, they arrive in a world where new refining capacity still outstrips mine growth. Expect continued pressure on TC/RCs and a premium for diversified, scalable copper producers like MMG as the energy transition accelerates.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

Safran LEAP Engine Deliveries Rise as Aerospace MRO Demand Stays Strong

Safran LEAP Engine

Safran LEAP engine deliveries rose sharply in the first quarter as the French aerospace group benefited from stronger narrowbody engine output and robust aftermarket activity. Safran delivered 520 LEAP engines in January-March, up 63% from 319 units a year earlier.

Safran LEAP engine deliveries are produced through CFM International, the company’s joint venture with GE Aerospace. The first-quarter result keeps CFM on track for its full-year delivery target of about 2,072 engines, based on expected growth of 15% over 2025.

Safran LEAP engine deliveries also show that narrowbody aircraft supply chains are improving, even as airlines and manufacturers remain exposed to engine durability, parts availability and material cost pressures.

The company said the Middle East war has had little to no operational impact so far. However, analysts questioned whether a longer conflict could eventually reduce air traffic, weaken airline finances or delay maintenance spending.

Aftermarket Strength Supports Propulsion Revenue

Safran’s aftermarket performance remained strong in the first quarter. Spare parts revenue rose by 29%, while services revenue increased by 43%.

This growth was driven by maintenance, repair and overhaul demand for both CFM56 and LEAP engines. Airlines continue to operate older fleets while waiting for new aircraft deliveries, supporting demand for engine shop visits, spare parts and repair work.

Safran said it has not seen any reduction in repair scope, shop visits or retirement trends. Chief executive Olivier Andries said the first half of the year should remain largely unaffected by the conflict.

The company maintained its full-year guidance. It expects low to mid-teen revenue growth, around 15% higher LEAP deliveries, mid-teen spare parts revenue growth and about 20% growth in services revenue.

Propulsion revenue reached €4.55bn in the first quarter. Services accounted for 64.5% of propulsion revenue at €2.9bn, while original equipment contributed €1.6bn.

That revenue mix matters for aerospace suppliers. Aftermarket activity provides stronger earnings visibility when new engine production remains constrained by materials, labour and qualified supplier capacity.

Cobalt and Tungsten Costs Highlight Engine Materials Risk

Safran noted significant price increases in raw materials such as cobalt and tungsten. These materials are critical to high-performance aerospace engine components.

Cobalt is used in superalloys that can withstand high temperatures inside jet engines. Tungsten supports hard metals, high-temperature alloys and precision tooling used across aerospace manufacturing.

The price pressure reflects wider supply-chain risk. Cobalt markets have been affected by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export restrictions and quota system. Tungsten prices have also risen because of tight concentrate supply and restricted Chinese exports.

Safran said it is managing the cost increases and has buffers to absorb higher raw material prices. Still, the trend reinforces how engine production depends on stable access to strategic metals.

CFM is also preparing to introduce the upgraded “maverick” high-pressure turbine blade on the LEAP-1B around June-July. The upgraded blade was introduced on the LEAP-1A variant last year after US and EU certification.

Other equipment deliveries were mixed. A320neo nacelle output rose by one-third from a year earlier, while A320 landing gear sets, A330neo nacelles and A350 landing gear sets declined. Boeing 787 landing gear deliveries rose by 38% to 22 units.

The mixed performance shows that aerospace recovery remains uneven. Engine deliveries and aftermarket demand are improving, but nacelles, landing gear and late-stage aircraft systems still face different supply-chain pressures.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s quarter shows that aerospace profitability is increasingly tied to MRO depth and engine materials resilience. LEAP output is recovering, but cobalt, tungsten and high-temperature component supply will remain strategic pressure points as aircraft production ramps.

US Copper Flows Shift West as Washington Targets African Supply Chains

Copper

US copper flows are becoming a strategic policy priority as Washington seeks to redirect African copper away from China-oriented supply chains and into western manufacturing networks. The shift shows how copper is moving beyond its traditional role as an industrial commodity.

US policymakers are pursuing a dual strategy. They want to accelerate domestic copper projects and processing while also securing international copper sources that can feed US and allied supply chains faster.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has become central to this effort. The country offers high-quality resources and faster supply potential than many long-dated greenfield copper projects.

US copper flows are therefore being reshaped through offtake agreements, financing structures, infrastructure plans and strategic partnerships. The goal is to create secure mine-to-end-use supply chains that support American manufacturing and reduce dependence on China-linked material routes.

African Copper Becomes a Strategic Supply Target

The DRC’s copper output has historically moved east into Chinese-controlled or China-oriented value chains. Washington now wants to build alternative routes that connect African copper to the US and allied industrial base.

This is not only about copper cathode or concentrate volumes. It is about who controls logistics, financing, offtake, processing and final market access.

The US is already using state-backed financing and trading structures to compete for African copper and cobalt. The DRC, Zambia and Guinea are emerging as priority jurisdictions in this wider mineral strategy.

Glencore’s possible sale of a 40% stake in two DRC copper-cobalt mines to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium shows how policy and capital are beginning to move together. More US interest is also emerging in Congolese copper-cobalt, manganese, gold and lithium assets.

This matters because China has built deep influence across African mining, processing and trading channels. Western buyers cannot change copper flows only by expressing demand. They need financing, infrastructure, political support and long-term offtake commitments.

The US strategy also reflects a broader recognition that copper supply security cannot rely only on domestic mines. US copper resources are substantial, including brownfield leach opportunities and idle stockpiles, but permitting remains a major constraint.

International supply partnerships can move faster than many US projects. That makes African copper strategically valuable as Washington tries to support manufacturing, grid expansion, defence supply chains and electrification.

Inventory Distortions Change Copper Market Economics

US copper flows are also being affected by tariff expectations and inventory shifts. Around 1.9mn-2mn t of copper metal inventory is now sitting globally, with roughly 1.2mn t located in the US.

That is an unusually high share because the US consumes about 2mn t/yr, while China consumes roughly 15mn t/yr. The result is a market where headline global stocks look large, but copper outside the US can feel much tighter.

This inventory concentration changes copper economics. The same copper unit can carry different value depending on location, policy exposure, tariff risk and available delivery route.

That marks a major shift from the older copper market model. Copper was once priced mainly around construction cycles, manufacturing demand and visible exchange stocks. It is now increasingly priced around jurisdiction, logistics and strategic access.

The CME-LME arbitrage has reopened to encourage flows into the US. This reflects how policy expectations can pull metal across regions even when global balances appear more comfortable.

Physical demand remains supportive. Chinese demand has stayed resilient, Yangshan premiums have strengthened, and Shanghai inventories have continued to draw. These signals suggest that the broader copper market remains tighter than simple stock numbers imply.

Copper’s role in grids, electrification and data centres has also changed how governments view the metal. Copper is now becoming a strategic asset for industrial policy, not only a material input for construction and manufacturing.

The biggest commercial opportunities may therefore shift from pure price arbitrage to control over flows. Traders, miners and governments will increasingly compete through logistics, financing, offtake and jurisdictional positioning.

US copper flows will remain central to that competition. The race is no longer only about producing more copper. It is about deciding where copper goes, who processes it and which industrial systems it supports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is becoming a policy metal because electrification has turned physical access into a strategic advantage. The next copper cycle will not be defined only by price, but by who controls African supply routes, financing and end-use allocation.

Copper Supply Chain Fragility Is Underpriced Despite Price Rally

Ivanhoe

Copper supply chain risk is still being underpriced even after London Metal Exchange prices rallied above $13,000/t, according to Ivanhoe Mines chairman Robert Friedland. He warned that higher prices alone will not quickly unlock new mine investment or solve the operational bottlenecks now shaping copper supply.

The copper supply chain is facing a more complex problem than headline market balances suggest. Friedland pointed to sulphur, sulphuric acid, diesel and other critical inputs as increasingly important constraints for mining operations, especially in Africa.

The copper supply chain is particularly exposed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a large share of production depends on acid leaching. If sulphuric acid availability tightens further, Friedland said about half of the DRC’s low-grade leached copper could be at risk unless higher copper prices offset sharply higher acid costs.

This warning comes as the Middle East conflict affects copper markets indirectly. The immediate threat is not concentrate supply, but sulphur-linked cost inflation that can raise operating costs for solvent extraction and leaching operations.

Sulphuric Acid and Diesel Risks Expose Mining Cost Vulnerability

Sulphuric acid has become a central issue for copper supply because much of the DRC’s production relies on acid leaching. A prolonged disruption in sulphur flows could affect roughly 3mn t/yr of DRC copper output, making the country one of the most exposed parts of the global copper market.

The DRC’s vulnerability is different from that of traditional concentrate producers. Concentrate supply depends on mining, milling, logistics and smelter demand. Leached copper also depends on steady sulphur or sulphuric acid access, which creates another layer of supply-chain risk.

Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula complex is unusually positioned because it produces sulphuric acid as a by-product rather than relying only on external supply. The operation produced more than 100,000t of sulphuric acid in the first quarter of 2026, with annual output expected to reach 600,000-700,000 t/yr once the new smelter is fully ramped up.

That acid production gives Ivanhoe a strategic advantage. It can reduce exposure to imported acid costs while supporting copper output in a market where other DRC producers may face tighter reagent availability.

Diesel is another operational risk. Remote mines depend on diesel for haulage, power generation and logistics, especially where grid access is weak or transport routes are long.

Friedland said highly exposed mining firms should consider securing up to a year of diesel supply. He also argued that the DRC may be less vulnerable than some expect because refined products can arrive through India, Nigeria and southern Africa.

Still, the full operational impact may not yet be visible. Supply-chain shocks often appear first through higher costs, longer lead times and working-capital pressure before they become production losses.

This is why the copper market may be misreading risk. Visible inventories and annual balances can suggest moderate surplus, while the physical supply chain becomes more fragile beneath the surface.

A copper price above $13,000/t helps margins, but it does not immediately create acid, diesel, spare parts, qualified labour or new mine capacity. Mine investment still depends on permitting, capital cost, political risk and long development timelines.

AI, Data Centres and Critical Metals Raise Copper’s Strategic Value

Friedland linked copper’s long-term importance directly to electrification, cooling systems, data centres and artificial intelligence. These sectors are turning copper from a conventional industrial metal into a strategic infrastructure material.

AI data centres need large amounts of power infrastructure. That means more copper for grids, substations, transformers, cooling systems, cabling, backup power and electrical distribution.

The growth of AI also reinforces demand for metals beyond copper. Friedland highlighted gallium, scandium, dysprosium, rhenium and tantalum as thinly traded materials with low liquidity but high industrial dependence.

This is an important market signal. The next phase of industrial competition will not depend only on bulk metals. It will also depend on access to small-volume strategic materials that support semiconductors, aerospace, defence, magnets and high-performance alloys.

Copper remains the anchor metal because it connects electrification, grid expansion, industrial automation and data infrastructure. Friedland described copper as the “king of metals” because no large-scale energy transition can move without it.

However, copper’s strategic value also exposes the market to policy pressure. The US is beginning to understand mining’s national security role more clearly, especially as domestic supply concentration and import dependence become more visible.

Market participants expect moderate global copper surpluses this year, helped by last year’s supply windfall. But US physical balances are expected to remain tight, with the CME-LME arbitrage reopening to encourage flows into the country.

That regional tightness matters. Copper may look balanced globally, while specific markets face procurement pressure because of tariffs, logistics, exchange spreads, domestic manufacturing needs or strategic stockpiling.

The broader lesson is that copper pricing must account for supply-chain resilience, not only mine output. A mine that lacks acid, fuel or logistics capacity cannot deliver metal reliably, even if ore is available.

For investors, this strengthens the value of hard assets with low obsolescence. Mines, smelters, acid plants, power infrastructure and logistics corridors are becoming more valuable as supply chains become less predictable.

For manufacturers, copper procurement is becoming a strategic function. Buyers linked to grids, data centres, defence, cooling systems and energy infrastructure will need more secure supply agreements, not only exposure to exchange prices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Friedland’s warning cuts through the headline copper rally: the market is pricing metal, but not enough supply-chain fragility. Copper’s next constraint may come less from ore availability and more from acid, diesel, logistics and the minor metals needed to build the electrified economy.