Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reshape markets as PGMs rally

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook signals a split market for base and precious metals. Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook highlights persistent nickel oversupply, but tighter copper after 2025. Meanwhile, the company points to a strong PGM rebound driven by investment flows.

Nickel surplus persists as Indonesian supply keeps rising

Indonesian supply growth keeps the nickel market in structural surplus. Nornickel expects global nickel output at 3.86mn t in 2025 and 4.1mn t in 2026. Indonesia accounts for more than 66% of total production in that outlook.

Demand rises, but it still trails supply growth. Nornickel sees demand at 3.62mn t in 2025 and 3.83mn t in 2026. As a result, the market could post a surplus above 200,000t in both years.

Prices stay near marginal conversion costs for class 1 material. LME three-month nickel traded around $15,000/t for much of the past 18 months. However, prices fell to $14,322.50/t in the latest session cited by Nornickel.

Copper tightens after 2025 as concentrates stay constrained and PGMs rebound

Copper tightness could intensify after 2025 as concentrate deficits deepen. Nornickel notes copper prices rose more than 30% through 2025 and broke above $11,500/t by early December. Meanwhile, Comex–LME arbitrage pulled metal into the US and tightened availability elsewhere.

Mine disruptions keep concentrate supply under pressure. Nornickel expects mined copper output at 23.4mn t in 2025 and 23.8mn t in 2026. Therefore, treatment charges stay stressed, with spot TCs cited around -$40/t.

Refined copper balances look fragile in 2025 and tighter in 2026. Nornickel projects refined supply at 27.7mn t versus demand at 27.6mn t in 2025. As a result, 2026 could slip into a small deficit at 28.3mn t supply and 28.4mn t demand.

PGM prices rebounded as investors returned after gold’s surge. Platinum rose about 20% to around $1,650/oz, while palladium climbed about 38% to around $1,550/oz. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and underinvestment keep primary supply trending lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reinforces a two-speed metals cycle for 2026 planning. Nickel needs production restraint, not demand hope, to rebalance. Therefore, copper and PGMs may carry the tighter risk premium across industrial supply chains.