Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada targets low-carbon battery metals

Nickel

Japan’s Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada signals a deeper strategic push into secure battery metal supply. The partners are testing awaruite nickel resources in Newfoundland and Labrador to support long-term decarbonisation. As a result, Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada sits at the intersection of energy security, EV growth and critical mineral policy in both countries.

Strategic drivers behind Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada

The first phase of Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada focuses on the Advocate area in northwest Newfoundland and Labrador. Jogmec will pay C$1.64mn over three years for an option to acquire a 48pc stake from Shoreline Exploration. However, the exploration timeline and ultimate nickel yield remain uncertain, underlining the early-stage nature of the project.

Japan’s government has placed storage batteries on its list of 11 vital materials since late 2022. Therefore Jogmec is mandated to lock in battery metal supply, including nickel, to underpin its 2050 decarbonisation targets. Canada has emerged as Japan’s preferred partner for these efforts, combining resource depth, ESG credibility and strong policy backing for critical minerals.

Meanwhile, Jogmec and FPX are already familiar collaborators in awaruite nickel. They previously explored the 28km² Klow area in British Columbia, building geological knowledge and technical confidence. This continuity reduces project risk and strengthens the case for scaling Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada into a long-term supply platform.

Awaruite nickel, FPX portfolio and supply chain implications

Awaruite nickel, hosted in ultramafic rocks, offers potential processing and ESG advantages compared with some sulphide and laterite routes. If exploration succeeds, Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada could deliver large-scale, low-impurity feedstock for battery precursors. However, investors will still demand clarity on recovery rates, capex intensity and permitting pathways before committing major capital.

FPX Nickel sits at the centre of this emerging supply chain. Its 59,000 t/yr Baptiste Nickel Project in British Columbia already attracted a strategic stake from Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining. As a result, Japan’s industrial ecosystem could gain multi-asset access to Canadian nickel via Jogmec, Sumitomo and FPX, spanning both Baptiste and Advocate.

For Canada, this partnership reinforces its positioning as a reliable supplier of low-carbon critical minerals to advanced economies. For Japan, diversified awaruite supply helps reduce exposure to high-risk jurisdictions and volatile spot markets. Over time, successful Jogmec FPX nickel exploration in Canada could anchor new midstream investments in refining and active materials aligned with EV and storage demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jogmec’s move with FPX shows how state-backed agencies are now competing directly for future battery nickel. If the Advocate and Baptiste projects advance on schedule, Canada could become one of Japan’s most strategic nickel partners outside traditional sulphide hubs. The key question now is whether policy support and project economics will align fast enough to meet the next wave of EV demand.

Canada Nickel Secures Ontario Grant for New Nickel Processing Facility

Canada Nickel

Ontario Supports Canada Nickel’s Nickel Processing Expansion

Canada Nickel has received a C$500,000 ($349,000) grant from Ontario’s Critical Minerals Innovation Fund. The funding will support the company’s efforts to complete a feasibility study for a new nickel processing facility near Timmins, Ontario.

CEO Mark Selby confirmed that the feasibility study is set to take place later this year. The study will refine project costs, with current estimates requiring C$400 million for full development.

Production Goals and Market Focus

The upcoming facility aims to produce over 75,000 metric tonnes per year of nickel. This figure is slightly lower than the initial target of 80,000 t/yr. The plant is expected to begin operations in late 2027.

It will produce 98% purity nickel-cobalt material, serving the stainless steel, alloyed steel, and electric vehicle (EV) battery markets. This aligns with growing demand for high-purity nickel, particularly in the EV sector, which relies on nickel-rich cathode materials.

Canada’s Role in the Global Nickel Market

The Canadian government continues to invest in critical mineral projects. Ontario’s funding highlights the region’s commitment to strengthening domestic nickel supply chains. This project could boost Canada’s position as a key supplier in the global nickel and battery metals market.

With rising demand for sustainable nickel processing, this facility could play a major role in future clean energy technologies.

Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.

Vale Base Metals Deal Creates New Path for Thompson Mine Complex

Vale Base Metals

Vale Base Metals will enter a new consortium deal that could reshape the future of the Thompson Mine Complex in Manitoba. The planned transaction gives the Canadian nickel asset fresh capital, new partners, and a clearer role in North America’s critical minerals supply chains.

The consortium will include Exiro Minerals, Orion Resource Partners, Canada Growth Fund, and Vale Base Metals. Together, the partners plan to invest up to $200mn in the Thompson Mine Complex through a new company called Exiro Nickel. The structure gives the three partners an 81.1pc controlling stake, while Vale Base Metals retains an 18.9pc minority position.

Vale Base Metals will also sign an offtake agreement for nickel concentrate produced at the Thompson mill. This is strategically important because it allows the company to maintain exposure to nickel units while reducing direct ownership of the Manitoba operations. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory and government approvals.

Thompson Nickel Belt Gains Long-Term Investment Platform

The Thompson Mine Complex remains a significant nickel asset because it includes two underground mines, a mill, and exploration ground across the 135km-long Thompson Nickel Belt. The asset produced 12,000t of finished nickel in 2025, up 21.2pc from 9,900t in 2024.

The deal creates a new Canadian nickel producer focused on extending the value of the Thompson Nickel Belt. Exiro Nickel’s role will be to steward the asset as a long-life platform, while Vale Base Metals continues day-to-day operations until the transaction is completed.

This structure reflects a wider trend in mining portfolio management. Large diversified producers are increasingly reviewing mature or non-core assets, while specialist investors and government-backed funds are stepping in where critical minerals policy supports long-term development. For Thompson, the result could be a more focused ownership model and stronger investment case.

Nickel Supply Security Supports Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy

The transaction strengthens Canada’s position in critical minerals supply chains tied to batteries, clean energy technologies, manufacturing, and industrial resilience. Nickel remains essential for stainless steel and selected battery chemistries, making stable North American supply strategically valuable.

Canada Growth Fund’s participation is especially notable because it links the project to broader national industrial policy. Government and provincial support suggests that Thompson is not being viewed only as a mine-level investment. It is also being treated as part of Canada’s long-term critical minerals infrastructure.

Vale Base Metals will remain connected to the asset through its minority stake and concentrate offtake agreement. That gives the company continued access to production while allowing new partners to fund the next phase of the Manitoba platform. For buyers, the arrangement could support more reliable nickel supply from a stable jurisdiction.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Vale Base Metals transaction shows how critical minerals policy is changing asset ownership. Mature nickel operations can gain new strategic value when capital, government support, and offtake structures align around supply security.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.

Vale nickel furnace expansion reshapes Brazil’s ferro-nickel landscape

Vale

Vale nickel furnace expansion is set to change the balance of ferro-nickel supply in Brazil and beyond. The new unit at Onca Puma adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity and lifts nameplate output by 60pc to 40,000 t/yr. As a result, the operation now stands as Brazil’s largest ferro-nickel producer and a more visible player in global stainless steel and battery supply chains. Vale nickel furnace expansion therefore reinforces the company’s strategic pivot toward higher-value base metals at a time of growing long-term demand for nickel in EVs and energy storage.

Vale nickel furnace expansion supports long-term growth targets

Vale nickel furnace expansion directly underpins the group’s near-term and long-term production targets. The company expects total nickel output to reach 150,000-175,000t this year, and it plans to lift production to 210,000-250,000 t/yr by 2030. This growth will come from additional capacity at Onca Puma and the ongoing ramp-up of underground production at Voisey’s Bay in Canada. Therefore, Vale nickel furnace expansion is part of a broader multi-asset strategy rather than a stand-alone upgrade. At the same time, Vale plans to build inventories ahead of planned maintenance at its Canadian sites, including five weeks of work at the Creighton mine in the third quarter and shorter outages at Thompson and Long Harbour. This pre-emptive stock build should help smooth customer deliveries and protect contractual reliability despite temporary disruptions.

Cost base improves as ferro-nickel capacity scales

Vale’s nickel business is also becoming more competitive as unit economics improve. The company reports global all-in nickel costs of $12,936/t, down from around $15,000/t a year earlier. Lower costs reflect operational efficiencies, better asset utilisation and the scale benefits associated with projects like the Onca Puma expansion. As a result, Vale can withstand periods of weaker nickel prices while still supporting capital spending on strategic growth assets. This cost profile matters for stainless steel mills and battery supply chain customers that are increasingly sensitive to both price and ESG performance when selecting long-term partners. Over time, expanded ferro-nickel capacity in Brazil could provide more diversified supply options for global buyers seeking to reduce dependence on a narrow set of producing regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale nickel furnace expansion at Onca Puma reinforces the company’s position as a core supplier to stainless and future battery markets. The combination of higher nameplate capacity, lower unit costs and diversified production between Brazil and Canada makes Vale a pivotal player in the next phase of nickel supply growth. For downstream consumers, the key question will be how this new capacity interacts with evolving nickel demand from EVs and potential structural oversupply in certain market segments.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Vale Copper Reserves Rise as Base Metals Strategy Shifts Toward Brownfield Growth

Vale

Vale copper reserves and resources increased in 2025 as Vale Base Metals expanded exploration drilling across Brazil and Canada. The company’s copper reserves and resources rose by 6% to 53mn t, while nickel reserves and resources increased by 13% to 14mn t.

The increase supports Vale’s strategy to convert known ore into future supply instead of relying mainly on harder-to-permit greenfield projects. The company aims to raise total reserves and resources by more than 20% by the end of 2027.

Vale copper reserves are especially important because the company plans to nearly double copper output by 2035. That target depends on extending mine life, upgrading existing districts, and using established infrastructure to bring new tonnes into production faster.

Carajas Remains Vale’s Fastest Route to New Copper Tonnes

Vale added new reserves at Bacaba in Brazil’s Carajas district and expanded resources across Sequeirinho, Mata, Cristalino and Paulo Afonso. These additions build on the mine life expansion programme announced in February 2025.

Carajas is strategically attractive because Vale already has mining infrastructure, logistics and operating knowledge in the region. This makes it one of the company’s most practical routes for adding copper supply without the delays often associated with new mining districts.

For the copper market, Vale copper reserves growth adds weight to Brazil’s role as a future supplier of energy transition metal. Copper demand from grids, electrification, renewable power and industrial infrastructure will require more brownfield and near-mine growth from established producers.

Canada Nickel Assets Extend Mine Life and Support Underground Studies

Vale also expanded resources at its Canadian nickel operations. Fresh tonnes at Sudbury in Ontario and Voisey’s Bay supported mine life extensions and new underground studies.

Sudbury reached its highest ore production since 2016 last year, reinforcing the value of long-life underground mining hubs in established jurisdictions. Voisey’s Bay also remains important to Vale’s nickel portfolio as battery and stainless steel demand continue to shape long-term market expectations.

The increase in Vale nickel resources strengthens the company’s ability to compete in battery materials and high-performance alloy supply chains. However, future output will depend on capital discipline, underground development, processing capacity and market conditions for nickel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s reserve growth shows that major miners are prioritising brownfield expansion over risky frontier exploration. In copper and nickel, the fastest future supply may come from deeper work inside known districts rather than headline-grabbing new discoveries.

Glencore Copper and Nickel Output Weakens as Grade Pressure Hits 2025 Performance

Glencore

Glencore copper and nickel output weakened in 2025 as grade pressure and operational constraints reduced production across key assets. Own-sourced copper production fell 11pc to 851,600t. Own-sourced nickel production also declined. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output reflected a difficult year for ore quality, maintenance, and mine sequencing.

The copper decline was driven by several large operations. Collahuasi posted the biggest drop because of complex stockpiled ore and water constraints. Antamina also saw lower grades from planned mining sequences. Meanwhile, Antapaccay faced harder ore and throughput limits. Mount Isa production also fell after the MICO mine closure.

Nickel performance showed similar pressure. Glencore’s own-sourced nickel output totalled 71,900t in 2025. Lower production at INO in Canada and Murrin Murrin in Australia weighed on results. Furnace disruption and maintenance downtime were the main causes. Therefore, Glencore copper and nickel output declined for both geological and operational reasons.

Second-Half Recovery Helped Glencore Copper Production Stabilise

Glencore copper production improved sharply in the second half of the year. Own-sourced output in July-December rose 48pc from the first half. Better grades at KCC in the DRC supported that recovery. Antamina also improved after an earlier safety stoppage, while Antapaccay benefited from resumed leaching operations.

This rebound matters because it shows the company still has recovery potential inside its portfolio. The second-half improvement did not erase the annual decline, but it changed the tone. It suggests the worst operating conditions may not persist through 2026. However, mine sequencing remains a continuing risk.

Collahuasi remains especially important to watch. Water constraints there began easing after commissioning of a new desalination plant in the second half. If that support continues, copper production could become more stable. Consequently, Glencore copper production may hold firmer in 2026 than the 2025 headline suggests.

Glencore Nickel Production Outlook Points to Only Modest Recovery

Glencore nickel production also improved late in the year, but the recovery remained limited. Fourth-quarter nickel output rose nearly a quarter from July-September to 19,500t. INO recovered after earlier smelter disruption. However, Murrin Murrin still faced maintenance-related pressure.

That explains why 2026 guidance looks cautious rather than aggressive. Copper guidance of 810,000-870,000t is broadly in line with 2025. Nickel guidance of 70,000-80,000t suggests only a modest recovery. Therefore, management still expects grade variability and operational discipline to define performance.

The broader message is clear. Glencore is not facing a collapse in production capacity. It is dealing with portfolio complexity, asset-specific constraints, and uneven recovery across operations. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output may remain stable, but not yet fully restored to earlier levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s 2025 results show how quickly diversified mining portfolios can still be hit by grade and sequencing issues. The second-half rebound is encouraging, but the 2026 outlook remains cautious for good reason. This is a recovery story, but not yet a full reset.

China's August Nickel Metal Imports Surge, Exports Drop

China's Nickel

China’s nickel metal imports saw a significant rebound in August, largely driven by delayed shipments from Russia in July finally arriving. The gap between Chinese domestic nickel prices and London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices narrowed, leading to a sharp reduction in nickel exports.

According to customs data, China imported 8,794 tonnes of nickel metal in August, more than doubling the volume from the previous month and marking a 28% increase from the same period last year. The dip in imports in July was mainly attributed to logistical challenges, which were resolved by August, resulting in the spike. Russian exports, which usually maintain a steady level each month, rose sharply in August to 5,242 tonnes, compared to just 946 tonnes in July.

Nickel imports from Indonesia remained stable in August, reaching 1,232 tonnes, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase. Despite the August surge, China's total nickel imports for the January-August period fell by 15%, amounting to 54,713 tonnes. The decline was due to reduced shipments from Russia, Australia, and Canada, which outweighed the increase in Indonesian imports. Indonesia is increasingly becoming China’s main source of nickel feedstock, replacing traditional suppliers.

Exports Fall Amid Stable Domestic Supply

In contrast, China’s nickel metal exports dropped to 12,496 tonnes in August, a 17% decline from July. However, exports were nearly eight times higher than a year earlier. Taiwan remained the leading export destination due to its close proximity to an LME warehouse, making it a key hub for trade.

During the January-August period, China’s total nickel exports more than tripled, reaching 71,020 tonnes. South Korea also emerged as a major destination, accounting for 37% of China’s total exports, a position similar to Taiwan, driven by geographical convenience.

Vale Nickel Production 2025 Set to Rise with Second Furnace at Onca Puma

Vale

Vale nickel production 2025 is expected to increase significantly as the Brazilian miner nears completion of a second furnace at its Onca Puma site. The new furnace, 85% complete, is set to launch in Q2 2025 and will support Vale’s plan to produce 160,000–175,000 metric tonnes (t) of nickel this year. The company reported a strong first quarter with 43,900t, up 11% year over year.

Canadian Plants and Furnace Upgrades Drive Early Gains

Vale attributed its first-quarter output growth to high performance from its Canadian operations and the rebuilt furnace at Onca Puma. The nickel division rebounded after a 3% drop in 2024 production, which ended at 160,000t. In 2023, Vale had produced 165,000t. The ongoing infrastructure improvements signal renewed momentum for the company’s nickel strategy.

Meanwhile, Vale continues to implement upgrades across its global operations. Although maintenance is scheduled for Q3 at the Sunbury complex in Canada, overall output for Vale nickel production 2025 is still projected to rise. These efforts reflect Vale’s push to strengthen its position as a major supplier in the energy transition metals market.

Strategic Positioning in Global Nickel Supply Chain

Nickel is a core material for electric vehicle batteries, stainless steel, and energy storage. Vale’s ramp-up supports global supply at a time of fluctuating market dynamics and growing demand. The Onca Puma project’s expansion and Canadian consistency illustrate Vale’s resilience in managing both output and maintenance cycles effectively.

The company’s projected range for Vale nickel production 2025 signals investor confidence and growing alignment with energy transition goals. With global battery production rising, stable supply from a diversified portfolio becomes increasingly valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s investment in its Onca Puma furnace positions it to capture rising nickel demand in 2025. As electrification accelerates, integrated producers with resilient infrastructure will shape the strategic metals landscape.

US Nickel Premiums Hold Steady as Buyers Await Market Clarity

US Nickel

US nickel premiums remained stable this week as market activity waned, with spot market buyers largely sitting out until the first quarter of 2025.

Nickel Premiums Unchanged Amid Market Lull

Spot premiums for refined nickel in the US held steady this week:

• Full truckload melting grade, 4x4-inch cathodes: Assessed at 60-65¢/lb.
• Briquettes: Assessed at 30-35¢/lb.

The unchanged premiums reflect subdued market activity, with no spot sales reported. Industry insiders expect this trend to persist through December, potentially extending into the late first quarter of 2025. Reduced order volumes from specialty stainless producers have further softened demand.

LME Nickel Prices and Stock Levels

Global nickel stockpiles in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses increased by 3.4%, reaching 165,384 metric tonnes, up from 159,966 tonnes the previous week. This rise in inventories aligns with the broader slowdown in demand.

The LME nickel daily cash month-to-date average for December was $15,700/t ($7.12/lb), down from November’s average of $16,740/t ($7.14/lb). The official three-month LME nickel price settled at $15,955/t on Thursday, reflecting a 0.5% week-over-week decrease.

Voisey's Bay Expansion: A Major Development

In a noteworthy development, Brazilian mining giant Vale announced the completion of its Voisey’s Bay mine expansion in Canada. The transformation from open-pit to underground mining enables an annual nickel production capacity of 45,000 tonnes.

• The project, which began in 2018, cost $2.94 billion and significantly bolsters nickel supplies, particularly to the US market.

As Voisey's Bay ramps up production, it is expected to play a key role in stabilizing supply chains amid evolving market dynamics.

Ramu Restores Full MHP Output After Upgrades, Targets Higher Nickel and Cobalt Volumes in 2025

Nickel 28 Capital

Papua New Guinea Plant Bounces Back Following Planned Shutdown and Mechanical Issues

Nickel 28 and Metallurgical Corporation of China Expect Production Growth

Ramu, the mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant in Papua New Guinea (PNG), has resumed full production capacity after scheduled upgrades and mechanical setbacks in late 2024. Nickel 28, the Canada-based metals investment firm, confirmed the restart, noting that Ramu’s output reached 28,669 tonnes of nickel and 2,625 tonnes of cobalt in 2024. These totals came in slightly below targets due to a planned September–October shutdown and temporary blower failure in the acid plant.

2025 Outlook: Production Guidance Expects Record Nickel and Cobalt Output

Looking ahead, Ramu’s 2025 production guidance stands at 32,000 tonnes of nickel and 2,900 tonnes of cobalt as MHP. This positions Ramu for a strong year, capitalizing on rising demand for battery materials. Ramu NiCo Management, a subsidiary of the Metallurgical Corporation of China, owns 85% of the project, while Nickel 28 holds 8.56%. The remainder is owned by PNG government-related entities and local landowners, ensuring strong domestic participation.

China’s MHP Imports Grow, but PNG Shipments Drop

MHP is a key feedstock for nickel sulphate and nickel cathode production—critical for batteries and electric vehicles. In 2024, China imported 1.43 million tonnes of MHP, up 8.4% from a year earlier, yet PNG’s exports to China dropped 31% year-on-year to 118,531 tonnes. With Ramu back at full capacity, PNG’s share in the global MHP market may rebound in 2025.

Vale Sees Rise in Nickel and Copper Output in 3Q Amid Maintenance Challenges

Vale

Brazilian multi-metals mining group Vale reported a year-on-year increase in nickel production for the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by higher output from its Canadian mines, including Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay. However, the company’s total production for the first nine months of the year was slightly down compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to longer-than-expected maintenance shutdowns at several key mines.

Nickel Production Boosted by Canadian Mines

Vale's nickel production rose by 12% year-on-year, reaching 47,100 tonnes during the July-September period. However, the total production for the first nine months of the year was 4.7% lower than in 2023, with 114,400 tonnes of nickel produced. A significant contributor to the growth was the Sudbury mine, where finished nickel production increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 12,300 tonnes. This was primarily due to the resumption of smelting and refining operations at Sudbury, following its biennial maintenance shutdown.

In addition, production at Voisey’s Bay saw a significant increase, rising by 56.4% year-on-year to 6,100 tonnes, thanks to higher nickel grades following extended maintenance work. Vale also reported a 55% increase in production from its Thompson mine, which reached 3,100 tonnes.

Challenges and Power Disruption in Brazil

In Brazil, production from the Onça Puma mine increased by 7% to 6,200 tonnes, following a furnace rebuild. However, the mine experienced a power disruption after a severe windstorm damaged a local utility company's transmission line, which impacted operations. Despite this, Vale's performance in Brazil’s nickel sector remained robust.

Indonesia and Third-Party Contributions

Vale’s nickel production from Indonesia saw a dramatic rise, nearly tripling year-on-year to 19,300 tonnes in the third quarter. This increase was driven by the offtake from third-party suppliers and production from its subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

Copper Production Up Despite Setbacks at Salobo Mine

Vale’s copper production also saw growth, with a 5.3% increase in the third quarter, reaching 85,900 tonnes. Over the first nine months of the year, copper output rose by 8.3% to 246,300 tonnes. At the Salobo mine in Brazil, production was impacted by a conveyor belt fire at Salobo’s third plant, which led to a 6% decline in output. However, higher production at its other two plants helped mitigate the losses.

The Sossego mine also performed well, with production rising by 15.2% to 19,700 tonnes, thanks to stronger output and improved feed grades after the mine’s operational license was reinstated in June.

In Canada, Vale’s copper production surged by 31.5% to 19,600 tonnes, further contributing to the overall rise in copper production for the quarter.

Production Guidance for 2024

Vale has maintained its production guidance for 2024, with an expected output of 153,000-168,000 tonnes of nickel and 320,000-355,000 tonnes of copper.

Vale Nickel Output Rises 11pc in Q1 After Furnace Rebuild

VALE

Strong Recovery from Onça Puma Supports Global Nickel Supply

Brazilian mining giant Vale reported an 11pc year-on-year increase in nickel production for the first quarter of 2025, reaching 43,900 metric tonnes (t). This growth comes as the company completed the furnace rebuild at its Onça Puma mine, which had hindered production during the same period last year.

Production in Brazil reached 5,400t, up from zero a year earlier. Meanwhile, Canadian operations also performed strongly, delivering 20,000t, an 18pc rise. This included a 47pc increase at Voisey’s Bay and a 51pc surge at Thompson, driven by efforts to build inventory ahead of refinery maintenance later in the year.

Planned Maintenance and Nickel Price Pressure

Vale announced up to five weeks of scheduled maintenance at Creighton mine in Q3, with additional short-term outages planned at Thompson and Long Harbour through Q4.

Despite strong output, nickel sales volumes lagged behind production at 38,900t, though still up 18pc year-on-year.

However, average nickel prices dropped 4.4pc year-on-year to $16,100/t, reflecting a weaker London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel market. As a result, revenue gains from increased volume were partially offset by lower pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s output rebound underscores its operational resilience, especially as Canada strengthens its role in nickel supply. However, sustained LME price pressure may challenge margins, particularly during refinery maintenance later this year.

Valbruna buys Deutsche Nickel America assets to expand US stainless supply chain

Valbruna

Valbruna buys Deutsche Nickel America assets in a move that strengthens its US stainless footprint. The deal adds a ready-made distribution base and customer coverage. Therefore, Valbruna buys Deutsche Nickel America assets to improve service speed for North American buyers.

The transaction became effective on 5 December and was disclosed in an 11 December press release. Valbruna acquired the US assets of German producer Deutsche Nickel. Meanwhile, the acquisition signals continued consolidation in specialty stainless and nickel-bearing products.

The Cumberland site becomes a logistics hub for North America

Deutsche Nickel America runs a single location in Cumberland, Rhode Island. The site includes a warehouse used to support regional customers. As a result, Valbruna can use the facility to shorten lead times and reduce delivery complexity.

The warehouse has served customers across the US, Canada, and Mexico. That footprint supports cross-border shipments and flexible inventory positioning. However, buyers will still watch how Valbruna integrates systems, product catalogs, and service terms.

Why stainless bar supply chains reward scale and proximity

Stainless and nickel alloy products compete on reliability, not just price. Procurement teams want stable quality, predictable availability, and fast replenishment. Therefore, Valbruna buys Deutsche Nickel America assets to sit closer to customers and smooth order fulfillment.

This kind of asset purchase can also improve working capital efficiency. Local stocking reduces emergency air freight and last-minute rescheduling. Meanwhile, the North American metals market keeps rewarding suppliers that can bundle product breadth with dependable delivery.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal looks tactical, but it can lift competitiveness quickly through logistics. However, the real upside comes if Valbruna broadens value-added services around the warehouse. Therefore, watch for inventory expansion and tighter regional service commitments.

Vale 2Q nickel output hits highest since 2021

Vale

Vale 2Q nickel output surged 44% year on year to 40,300t. The result marks the highest quarterly level since 2021. Vale 2Q nickel output rose on stronger production in Brazil and Canada.

Canada leads gains; Brazil also rises

Canadian operations nearly tripled to 21,300t. Voisey's Bay more than tripled to 8,600t. Sudbury output nearly tripled to 8,600t on productivity gains. Brazil produced 4,800t, up from 3,000t. Therefore, diversified assets drove the quarterly rebound.

Maintenance, sales and pricing

Vale scheduled third-quarter maintenance at seven Canadian facilities. Creighton will shut for five weeks. Clarabelle mill will shut for four weeks. These outages may temper near-term volumes.

Nickel sales reached 41,400t, up 7,000t year on year. Average realized prices fell 15% to $15,800/t. Lower LME prices drove the decline. Meanwhile, higher shipments supported quarterly revenue.

As a result, Vale 2Q nickel output underpins supply despite softer pricing. Investors should watch maintenance impacts and discipline on costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s surge reflects operational normalization, not market tightness. Sustained gains require stable Canadian uptime and productivity at Brazil. Price headwinds persist while Indonesian supply overhangs the market.

Sudbury Basin copper project advances as Vale and Glencore assess a new Canada JV

VALE

The Sudbury Basin copper project gained momentum after Vale Base Metals signed a study pact with Glencore Canada in Ontario, Canada. This Sudbury Basin copper project could deliver 880,000 tonnes of copper over 21 years. The partners also target nickel, cobalt, gold, and platinum group metals. Meanwhile, they plan to form a joint venture and reach a final decision in 2027.

Economics and schedule for the underground build-out

The companies expect project costs between $1.6bn and $2bn, depending on the development plan. They will use existing mining infrastructure to speed access and reduce surface disruption. As a result, the study will focus on underground deposits across the basin. The timetable points to a final investment decision in the first half of 2027.

Nickel Rim South reactivation and critical-minerals upside

The framework links exploration to existing workings at Nickel Rim South mine, now on care and maintenance. Glencore can reopen underground access without starting from a greenfield footprint. Therefore, the Sudbury Basin copper project can also support North American battery supply chains. However, permitting, metallurgy, and capital discipline will decide whether the JV proceeds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how incumbents stretch existing assets to secure critical minerals. Meanwhile, copper and cobalt co-products can improve project resilience during price cycles. Therefore, markets will watch the 2027 decision milestone closely.

Honda Ontario EV Plan Suspended Amid Slower Market Growth Projections

Honda EV

Honda suspended its ambitious C$15 billion ($10.7 billion) Honda Ontario EV plan to build a comprehensive electric vehicle value chain in Canada. Chief Executive Toshihiro Mibe announced the two-year delay during the company's first-quarter earnings presentation, citing slower-than-expected EV market growth. The Honda Ontario EV plan postponement represents a significant setback for Canada's battery materials supply chain development and critical mineral processing ambitions.

Comprehensive Battery Supply Chain Project Faces Market Reality

The Honda Ontario EV plan encompassed a complete electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem in Alliston, Ontario, including an EV assembly plant and standalone battery manufacturing facility. Honda partnered with Posco Future M to develop cathode and precursor materials facilities while collaborating with Asahi Kasei on separator plant construction. Meanwhile, this integrated approach aimed to reduce supply chain dependencies while supporting Honda's goal of 100% battery and fuel cell EV sales by 2040.

The comprehensive nature of the Honda Ontario EV plan positioned Canada as a strategic hub for North American electric vehicle production. Honda's investment would have created substantial demand for Canadian critical minerals, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt for battery cathode materials. However, slower market adoption rates have forced automakers to reassess their aggressive electrification timelines and associated capital investments.

Critical Mineral Processing Ambitions Face Automotive Headwinds

Canada's strategy to capture value from its abundant critical mineral resources through downstream processing suffers a major blow from the Honda Ontario EV plan suspension. The project represented a key opportunity to establish domestic battery materials manufacturing capabilities using Canadian lithium, nickel, and graphite resources. As a result, the delay undermines government efforts to build integrated critical mineral supply chains within North America.

Posco Future M's planned cathode and precursor facilities would have processed Canadian-sourced critical minerals into high-value battery materials for Honda's EV production. The partnership promised technology transfer and manufacturing expertise to establish Canada's position in global battery supply chains. Therefore, the Honda Ontario EV plan postponement reduces near-term demand prospects for Canadian critical mineral producers seeking domestic processing partnerships.

The two-year delay reflects broader challenges facing automaker electrification strategies as consumer adoption lags initial projections. Honda joins other manufacturers reassessing EV investment timelines amid market uncertainty and profitability concerns. Consequently, critical mineral demand growth may moderate as automakers adjust production capacity plans to match actual market conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Honda's decision to pause its massive Ontario investment reflects the gap between aggressive EV transition rhetoric and market reality, highlighting risks for critical mineral producers banking on rapid battery demand growth. This setback underscores the importance of diversified demand strategies for Canadian critical mineral projects, as automotive electrification timelines prove more volatile than anticipated across the industry.

Vale to Invest $3.8 Billion in Copper and Nickel Expansion, Market Reaction?

Vale mining

Brazilian mining giant Vale SA announced on the 20th (local time) that it plans to invest up to $3.3 billion (approximately $3.8 trillion KRW) over the next four years to upgrade mining facilities in Brazil and Canada. This strategy aims to significantly increase copper and nickel production capacity.

In its recent outlook for the Base Metals division, Vale projected that improvements to the Salobo and Sossego mines in Brazil could expand its copper production capacity to 500,000 tons annually by 2028. This represents a 55% increase from last year's production of 321,000 tons. Nickel production capacity is also expected to rise.

Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale's Base Metals Board, emphasized that the multi-billion dollar facility investment plan is aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the company's copper and nickel mines and processing plants, improving productivity, and reducing costs.

Copper prices hit an all-time high last month, with supply shortages anticipated in the coming years. Major global mining companies are moving to increase production.

Last year, Vale spun off its Base Metals division into a separate entity and sold a 10% stake to Saudi Arabia. The company is currently exploring liquidity options, including an initial public offering (IPO) for the division.

Vale expects 'early results' from measures such as operating idle facilities at its Sudbury smelter in Canada with self-supplied metals. An initial investment of $800 million is estimated to increase copper production by 5% and nickel production by 10% by 2026.

Citigroup analysts commented, "While the announcement was impressive, the short-term plans are things we've heard multiple times before," and characterized Vale's Base Metals business as a 'showcase story.'