Indonesia HPM Formula Raises Nickel Ore Cost Risk for HPAL Producers

ESDM

Indonesia HPM formula changes will reshape nickel ore pricing from 15 April, adding new cost pressure across the country’s nickel processing chain. The energy and mineral resources ministry revised the mineral benchmark price mechanism for nickel and aluminium ore, with nickel valuation now expanded beyond nickel content alone.

The Indonesia HPM formula raises the correction factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, compared with the previous 20% correction factor for 1.9% ore. Under the new framework, the correction factor rises or falls by one percentage point for every 0.1% change in nickel content.

This means the correction factor for 1.9% nickel ore will rise to 33%. The change increases the official value of nickel ore and could raise taxes, royalties and feedstock costs for processors that rely on HPM-linked transactions.

The Indonesia HPM formula also adds cobalt, iron and chromium into ore valuation. This is a major policy shift because these contained elements were not previously priced in the same way. Indonesia is now moving toward a more complete ore-value model, especially for laterite ores used in battery and stainless steel supply chains.

Cobalt, Iron and Chromium Inclusion Changes Nickel Ore Valuation

Indonesia’s new nickel HPM framework gives cobalt a correction factor of 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. This is particularly important for high-pressure acid leach producers because cobalt-bearing ore can generate additional value through mixed hydroxide precipitate.

The ministry also introduced a 10% correction factor for iron when ore contains 35% or less iron. Chromium content also carries a 10% correction factor. These additions make ore valuation more complex and link pricing more closely to the full chemistry of laterite deposits.

The inclusion of cobalt is the most strategically important change. Indonesia’s HPAL projects produce nickel-cobalt intermediates for battery supply chains, and cobalt content can materially affect project economics. By taxing cobalt-bearing value inside ore, Jakarta is capturing more upstream rent from battery-linked mineral flows.

The Indonesia HPM formula therefore moves beyond a simple nickel-grade benchmark. It pushes the country toward a broader mineral-value system that recognises by-product metals and secondary contained value.

The ministry kept the Harga Mineral Acuan reference price unchanged. This means the immediate policy impact comes from correction factors and added contained elements, rather than a change in the headline reference price.

Market participants are now assessing how the new rules will pass through to actual transactions. For nickel ore used in rotary kiln-electric furnace production, spot prices remain nearly double the HPM level. This limits the immediate impact on some stainless-linked ore trades because market prices already sit well above the official benchmark.

The impact is likely to be much stronger for HPAL ore. Ore used in HPAL processing often trades without the same premium seen in RKEF feedstock. As a result, the revised HPM formula could lift transacted HPAL ore prices by more than a third.

That cost increase would move directly into battery-grade nickel economics. Market participants estimate that higher ore prices and taxes could raise mixed hydroxide precipitate production costs by more than $1,000/t in nickel metal equivalent.

This matters because Indonesia has become the centre of global MHP supply growth. Chinese-backed HPAL projects rely on Indonesian ore, sulphuric acid, energy and logistics to supply nickel and cobalt intermediates to global battery chains. Higher ore costs could narrow margins across MHP, nickel sulphate and cathode material supply.

The change also arrives during a period of wider nickel policy uncertainty. Indonesia has been tightening mining quotas, reviewing export taxes and seeking greater value capture from its mineral resources. The revised HPM formula fits that direction by increasing government control over pricing and taxable value.

Nickel Policy Shift Extends to Bauxite and Signals Broader Resource Control

Indonesia’s pricing reform did not stop at nickel. The ministry also revised the HPM formula for bauxite, changing the price basis to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne.

The bauxite change adds a silica discount and raises the correction factor to $1.40/wmt for each one percentage point increase in aluminium oxide content. The previous formula used $1/dmt. This changes how moisture and ore quality are reflected in benchmark pricing.

The ministry also changed the price basis for lead ore to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne. This effectively removes moisture content from the pricing formula and simplifies the benchmark around wet material values.

These changes suggest a broader policy direction. Indonesia is refining benchmark pricing across mineral commodities to improve tax collection, capture more contained value and align official pricing with ore quality.

For nickel, the change has immediate market significance because Indonesia dominates global laterite supply. Nickel ore pricing affects stainless steel, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, MHP, nickel sulphate and battery cathode supply chains.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price response showed that traders are treating the policy as price-supportive. Nickel closed at Yn136,900/t after rising from Yn133,010/t on 3 April, with participants citing support from the revised HMA-linked pricing framework.

However, the real market impact will depend on how producers, smelters and government agencies implement the rules. If HPM-based taxes rise sharply while spot ore prices remain high, margin pressure could build across processors with weaker cost positions.

HPAL producers are the most exposed because their feedstock pricing may move more directly with the revised benchmark. RKEF operators may see less immediate change because their ore costs already reflect strong market premiums.

For battery materials buyers, the risk is that Indonesia’s cost base becomes more expensive even as global nickel markets remain oversupplied. Higher ore valuation may not tighten physical supply immediately, but it can raise the floor for production costs in one of the world’s most important nickel processing hubs.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource sovereignty. The government is using pricing formulas, mining quotas, export controls and tax compliance to ensure that more mineral value stays inside the country. This could support domestic revenue and downstream investment, but it may also increase uncertainty for processors and foreign investors.

The new framework also creates a precedent. If Indonesia successfully captures more value from cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore, other resource-rich countries may consider similar contained-metal pricing models.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula shows that nickel policy is moving from volume control to value capture. The biggest impact will fall on HPAL producers, where cobalt-bearing ore valuation could raise MHP costs and change battery nickel economics.

New Caledonia Nickel Supply Gains Time, Not Certainty

Eramet

New Caledonia nickel supply has moved from crisis toward cautious stabilisation. SLN nickel stabilisation followed fresh state-backed funding and renewed guarantees from Eramet. However, the company has not returned to normal operations. Therefore, New Caledonia nickel supply remains fragile despite short-term relief.

SLN’s restart plan shows progress, but recovery will be slow. Thio, Kouaoua, and Poro are reopening after long disruption. Doniambo is still running at minimum technical capacity. Meanwhile, Poum remains shut until nickel prices improve. That means operational stabilisation does not yet equal strategic recovery.

SLN Nickel Stabilisation Depends on Funding, Grades, and Energy Costs

SLN nickel stabilisation now rests on financial support rather than market strength. A €240mn state-backed bond facility secured operations through 2026. The first tranche already arrived in late December. A second tranche is expected between April and August. As a result, SLN has bought time, not solved its structural weakness.

Ore grade improvement has become the main lever for margin recovery. SLN plans to raise average ore grade to 2.25pc in 2026. That compares with 2.1pc in 2025. Management believes each 0.1-point gain lifts ebitda materially. However, stronger grades cannot remove the energy cost burden.

Energy remains the core competitive problem for New Caledonia nickel supply. SLN still faces structurally high power costs. Indonesian nickel producers operate with lower energy and processing costs. Therefore, SLN remains exposed even if production and grades improve. Profitability targets for 2029-30 still look distant.

Non-Indonesian Nickel Supply Matters More Than Its Volume Suggests

Non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically important despite small tonnage. SLN’s ferro-nickel output rose to about 36,000t in 2025. Its 2026 target stands at 43,000t. Those volumes are modest globally. However, they matter for Pacific balance and diversified alloy supply chains.

The broader nickel market still looks oversupplied, but that headline hides deeper risk. High-cost producers outside Indonesia now survive mainly through public support. They cannot respond flexibly to future demand changes. Consequently, the market may face sharper disruptions in later cycles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SLN’s stabilisation shows that non-Indonesian nickel supply now depends as much on policy as on geology. Global nickel oversupply has not removed strategic fragility. It has simply shifted the burden onto governments supporting diversity outside Indonesia.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Vale Base Metals Deal Creates New Path for Thompson Mine Complex

Vale Base Metals

Vale Base Metals will enter a new consortium deal that could reshape the future of the Thompson Mine Complex in Manitoba. The planned transaction gives the Canadian nickel asset fresh capital, new partners, and a clearer role in North America’s critical minerals supply chains.

The consortium will include Exiro Minerals, Orion Resource Partners, Canada Growth Fund, and Vale Base Metals. Together, the partners plan to invest up to $200mn in the Thompson Mine Complex through a new company called Exiro Nickel. The structure gives the three partners an 81.1pc controlling stake, while Vale Base Metals retains an 18.9pc minority position.

Vale Base Metals will also sign an offtake agreement for nickel concentrate produced at the Thompson mill. This is strategically important because it allows the company to maintain exposure to nickel units while reducing direct ownership of the Manitoba operations. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory and government approvals.

Thompson Nickel Belt Gains Long-Term Investment Platform

The Thompson Mine Complex remains a significant nickel asset because it includes two underground mines, a mill, and exploration ground across the 135km-long Thompson Nickel Belt. The asset produced 12,000t of finished nickel in 2025, up 21.2pc from 9,900t in 2024.

The deal creates a new Canadian nickel producer focused on extending the value of the Thompson Nickel Belt. Exiro Nickel’s role will be to steward the asset as a long-life platform, while Vale Base Metals continues day-to-day operations until the transaction is completed.

This structure reflects a wider trend in mining portfolio management. Large diversified producers are increasingly reviewing mature or non-core assets, while specialist investors and government-backed funds are stepping in where critical minerals policy supports long-term development. For Thompson, the result could be a more focused ownership model and stronger investment case.

Nickel Supply Security Supports Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy

The transaction strengthens Canada’s position in critical minerals supply chains tied to batteries, clean energy technologies, manufacturing, and industrial resilience. Nickel remains essential for stainless steel and selected battery chemistries, making stable North American supply strategically valuable.

Canada Growth Fund’s participation is especially notable because it links the project to broader national industrial policy. Government and provincial support suggests that Thompson is not being viewed only as a mine-level investment. It is also being treated as part of Canada’s long-term critical minerals infrastructure.

Vale Base Metals will remain connected to the asset through its minority stake and concentrate offtake agreement. That gives the company continued access to production while allowing new partners to fund the next phase of the Manitoba platform. For buyers, the arrangement could support more reliable nickel supply from a stable jurisdiction.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Vale Base Metals transaction shows how critical minerals policy is changing asset ownership. Mature nickel operations can gain new strategic value when capital, government support, and offtake structures align around supply security.

Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Nears Completion With Hot Commissioning Start

Hanrui Indonesian

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter development has moved into hot commissioning, signalling that Nanjing Hanrui’s delayed nickel matte project in Central Sulawesi is nearing completion. The Chinese cobalt producer launched the commissioning phase on 10 April at the Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali.

The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter is designed to produce 20,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis. The project will use oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology to convert nickel feedstock into matte for downstream processing.

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter progress matters because Indonesia remains the centre of global nickel capacity growth. New matte projects help connect Indonesian nickel resources with battery materials supply chains, especially where producers need feedstock for nickel sulphate and other battery-grade products.

Hot Commissioning Marks Final Step Before Commercial Output

Hot commissioning means production lines are being tested under operating conditions before full commercial production begins. This stage is important because it tests equipment integration, process stability, safety systems and product quality.

Hanrui had originally planned to start production in May 2025, but later deferred the schedule to March 2026. The start of hot commissioning now suggests the company is moving closer to operational readiness after earlier delays.

The project’s location in Morowali gives Hanrui access to one of Indonesia’s most important nickel industrial clusters. Morowali has become a major processing centre for Chinese-backed nickel investments, supported by integrated infrastructure, smelting capacity and downstream materials ambitions.

Chinese Producers Expand Nickel Matte Capacity in Indonesia

Hanrui’s project forms part of a broader Chinese investment wave in Indonesian nickel processing. Chinese companies are building matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate, ferronickel and other nickel products to serve both stainless steel and battery markets.

Huayou has also started construction of its Huaxing nickel matte project at the Indonesia Pomalaa Industry Park. That project is planned for 40,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis, although Huayou has not disclosed its construction timeline or start-up date.

The expansion of nickel matte capacity gives Chinese producers more flexibility in feedstock flows. It also strengthens Indonesia’s position as a processing base, not only an ore supplier.

However, new capacity still faces execution risks. Power supply, sulphur availability, environmental controls, commissioning performance and market prices will determine how quickly these projects move from nameplate capacity to stable commercial production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hanrui’s hot commissioning shows that Indonesia’s nickel buildout continues despite delays and market uncertainty. The strategic issue is whether new matte capacity can ramp smoothly enough to support battery supply chains without adding further pressure to an already competitive nickel market.

Nickel Industries Hengjaya Mine Suspension Raises New Risks for Indonesia Nickel Supply

Nickel Industries

Nickel Industries Hengjaya mine suspension has introduced fresh uncertainty into Indonesia nickel supply. The company halted all operations after a fatal incident on 25 March. The suspension affects its Hengjaya mine in Morowali. As a result, Nickel Industries Hengjaya mine suspension now matters beyond one site.

The timing is especially sensitive for the company’s wider growth plan. Hengjaya recently secured a 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota of 14.3mn wmt. The company also planned to seek additional quota later this year. Therefore, the operational pause could affect mining momentum and project sequencing.

The incident also connects directly to downstream expansion. The fatal accident occurred on the haul road near infrastructure for the slurry plant and dry stacked tailings facility. Those works support the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project. Consequently, investors will now watch both safety findings and project timing more closely.

Hengjaya Mine Operations Face Unclear Restart Timing

Hengjaya mine operations now depend on the outcome of the government investigation. Indonesia’s energy and mineral resources ministry is expected to begin its review immediately. However, the company has not disclosed when operations may restart. That leaves near-term mine supply visibility weak.

This uncertainty matters because Hengjaya is not a minor asset. Nickel Industries owns 80pc of the mine. It is a core upstream source for the company’s Indonesian nickel position. Therefore, even a temporary disruption could affect ore flow planning and internal coordination.

The broader market will also pay attention to regulatory response. Indonesian mining incidents often trigger tighter scrutiny on operating practices and site controls. That can slow activity beyond the initial suspension period. Meanwhile, safety performance remains critical for companies expanding aggressively in the country.

ENC HPAL Project Progress Now Faces Greater Market Attention

ENC HPAL project development now becomes the second major issue for Nickel Industries. The project is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter of this year. It is designed to produce 72,000 t/yr of nickel. Output is planned as MHP, nickel sulphate, and nickel cathode.

That production mix gives the project importance across both stainless steel and battery materials chains. The company had planned to ramp up ore supply through larger RKAB quotas. However, the Hengjaya interruption may complicate that path. As a result, the market will focus on whether commissioning stays on schedule.

For Indonesia nickel supply, this event highlights a recurring industry challenge. Rapid expansion creates pressure on mining, logistics, and downstream integration at the same time. Safety incidents can quickly expose those weak points. Therefore, execution quality matters as much as capacity ambition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This suspension is important because it touches both ore supply and downstream nickel conversion. Indonesia’s nickel industry still grows fast, but speed does not remove operational risk. If the restart takes time, the market will reassess how resilient integrated nickel projects really are.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Vale nickel furnace expansion reshapes Brazil’s ferro-nickel landscape

Vale

Vale nickel furnace expansion is set to change the balance of ferro-nickel supply in Brazil and beyond. The new unit at Onca Puma adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity and lifts nameplate output by 60pc to 40,000 t/yr. As a result, the operation now stands as Brazil’s largest ferro-nickel producer and a more visible player in global stainless steel and battery supply chains. Vale nickel furnace expansion therefore reinforces the company’s strategic pivot toward higher-value base metals at a time of growing long-term demand for nickel in EVs and energy storage.

Vale nickel furnace expansion supports long-term growth targets

Vale nickel furnace expansion directly underpins the group’s near-term and long-term production targets. The company expects total nickel output to reach 150,000-175,000t this year, and it plans to lift production to 210,000-250,000 t/yr by 2030. This growth will come from additional capacity at Onca Puma and the ongoing ramp-up of underground production at Voisey’s Bay in Canada. Therefore, Vale nickel furnace expansion is part of a broader multi-asset strategy rather than a stand-alone upgrade. At the same time, Vale plans to build inventories ahead of planned maintenance at its Canadian sites, including five weeks of work at the Creighton mine in the third quarter and shorter outages at Thompson and Long Harbour. This pre-emptive stock build should help smooth customer deliveries and protect contractual reliability despite temporary disruptions.

Cost base improves as ferro-nickel capacity scales

Vale’s nickel business is also becoming more competitive as unit economics improve. The company reports global all-in nickel costs of $12,936/t, down from around $15,000/t a year earlier. Lower costs reflect operational efficiencies, better asset utilisation and the scale benefits associated with projects like the Onca Puma expansion. As a result, Vale can withstand periods of weaker nickel prices while still supporting capital spending on strategic growth assets. This cost profile matters for stainless steel mills and battery supply chain customers that are increasingly sensitive to both price and ESG performance when selecting long-term partners. Over time, expanded ferro-nickel capacity in Brazil could provide more diversified supply options for global buyers seeking to reduce dependence on a narrow set of producing regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale nickel furnace expansion at Onca Puma reinforces the company’s position as a core supplier to stainless and future battery markets. The combination of higher nameplate capacity, lower unit costs and diversified production between Brazil and Canada makes Vale a pivotal player in the next phase of nickel supply growth. For downstream consumers, the key question will be how this new capacity interacts with evolving nickel demand from EVs and potential structural oversupply in certain market segments.

QMB Nickel Licence Review Signals Tougher Indonesia Nickel Oversight

QMB Nickel Indonesia

QMB nickel licence risk is rising after a landslide damaged a tailings facility at Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park. The Indonesian government is reviewing QMB New Energy Materials’ environmental permit, raising new uncertainty around nickel supply from one of the world’s most important battery materials hubs.

The review follows a landslide at IMIP in Sulawesi on 18 February that damaged heavy equipment and reportedly buried an operator. A final decision has not been made, but the case shows that Jakarta is applying stronger scrutiny to environmental and safety performance across the nickel industry.

QMB nickel licence pressure matters because the company has 150,000 t/yr of nickel capacity in mixed hydroxide precipitate. MHP is a key intermediate for battery supply chains, and any production disruption in Indonesia can quickly affect buyers across China, Korea, Japan, and the global electric vehicle sector.

Tailings Risk Adds Pressure to Indonesia’s MHP Supply Chain

QMB’s operations have not been fully suspended, but output has softened as site conditions continue to evolve. The only clearly unaffected portion appears to be QMB’s ESG-linked joint project with Merdeka Battery Materials, which is designed for around 40,000 t/yr and uses independent tailings infrastructure.

The incident is significant because QMB has already faced tailings-related disruption. A landslide at its tailings dam in March 2025 forced a 45-day shutdown of MHP production. The company restarted operations in May and returned to designed capacity in July.

This repeated disruption highlights a wider risk in Indonesia’s fast-growing nickel sector. Rapid capacity expansion has created major supply growth, but it has also increased pressure on waste management, tailings systems, environmental controls, and operating discipline. For battery makers, the issue is not only nickel volume, but also the reliability and ESG quality of that volume.

RKAB Quotas Tighten the Nickel Operating Environment

Indonesia is also tightening nickel supply through its RKAB production quota system. Government-approved ore quotas for 2026 are expected at around 260mn-270mn t, far below the roughly 379mn t mined in 2025. That signals a structural reduction in ore availability and a more controlled operating environment.

RKAB approvals are increasingly tied to ESG performance, which raises compliance risk for miners and processors. Companies with stronger environmental systems may gain more predictable access to ore and permits, while weaker operators could face delays, output cuts, or licence reviews.

The QMB nickel licence review therefore fits a broader policy shift. Jakarta appears to be reducing grey areas in mining regulation and linking production rights more directly to safety, environmental compliance, and operational accountability. This could support a more sustainable nickel sector, but it may also create near-term supply uncertainty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel market is moving from aggressive expansion toward stricter control. The winners will be producers that can prove safe tailings management, stable operations, and ESG compliance while still delivering battery-grade nickel at scale.

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions highlight tighter ESG enforcement and supply risk

Indonesia Nickel Mine

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions in southeast Sulawesi underline Jakarta’s tougher stance on reclamation and post-mining responsibilities. The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) has halted operations at 25 nickel mines over missing reclamation and post-mining guarantees. Indonesia nickel mine suspensions now sit within a broader crackdown that also targets coal, gold, iron ore, tin and asphalt producers across several provinces.

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions tied to reclamation failures and permit gaps

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions follow months of warning letters issued between December 2024 and August 2025. Regulators moved only after companies failed to respond with compliant reclamation plans and financial guarantees. The 25 affected nickel operators in southeast Sulawesi join a wider list of 190 suspended general mining licences from central Kalimantan to north Maluku.

However, the sanctions are temporary and may last up to 60 days if companies act quickly. Suspended firms must continue site maintenance, environmental management and monitoring to limit further damage. The ESDM has also sent suspension notices to some nickel mines in north Maluku, signalling that enforcement will not stay confined to one region. As a result, miners now face clear pressure to treat reclamation, guarantees and forestry permits as core licence conditions, not paperwork.

The Indonesia nickel mine suspensions add to recent high-profile actions by a government taskforce. Earlier this month, authorities seized land from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. That decision pushed LME official nickel prices up by about 3pc on 15 September, underscoring how governance interventions can move global benchmarks. Traders now read enforcement news almost as closely as ore shipment updates.

Market impact limited today, but ore supply concerns are building

The immediate market impact from the Indonesia nickel mine suspensions appears modest. Some sanctioned operations were inactive or had unstable output, according to market participants. Three-month LME class 1 nickel prices were largely rangebound at the time of the announcement, with only minor intraday moves.

However, the cumulative effect of licence suspensions, land seizures and stricter forestry compliance is beginning to worry ore buyers. Indonesia remains the world’s dominant supplier of nickel ore and nickel units for stainless steel and battery precursors. Therefore, even small disruptions can tighten margins for NPI smelters and high-nickel battery material producers already facing narrow spreads.

Downstream, stainless steel and battery supply chains now need to factor regulatory risk into feedstock strategies. Some buyers may diversify towards the Philippines or consider higher use of recycled nickel where possible. But substitution options remain limited at scale, keeping Indonesia at the centre of nickel supply planning for the foreseeable future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is clearly shifting from volume-at-all-costs to stricter licence discipline and ESG alignment. For miners and smelters, the new reality is that reclamation guarantees and forestry permits sit on the same level as ore grades and cash costs. Policy risk in Indonesia is becoming a structural driver of nickel prices, not just an occasional headline shock.

Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply deal strengthens US battery metals recycling

Aqua Metals

Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply agreement with Westwin Elements marks a key step for US battery metals recycling. The US recycler will provide 500-1,000 t/yr of recycled nickel carbonate to Westwin under a long-term pathway. The Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply deal is expected to be worth about $12mn/yr at today’s nickel prices. Both partners will depend on new commercial plants scheduled to come online before deliveries begin in 2027.

Nickel carbonate offtake anchors new US refining capacity

The agreement gives Westwin an early anchor for battery-grade feedstock from domestic recycling rather than primary mining. Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply will support Westwin’s planned nickel refining operations, which aim to produce high-purity material for battery and specialty alloy markets. As a result, the deal helps de-risk Westwin’s project pipeline by pre-qualifying a secure source of recycled nickel.

Aqua Metals has already passed Westwin’s production testing and qualification process for battery-grade nickel carbonate. This performance validation is critical because cathode and precursor producers maintain strict impurity thresholds. Therefore, the Aqua Metals nickel carbonate supply arrangement signals technical confidence in the company’s hydrometallurgical recycling flowsheet.

Recycling gains ground in critical minerals strategy

The partnership reflects a broader shift toward closed-loop battery metals supply chains in North America. Policymakers increasingly view recycled nickel as a strategic complement to mined supply, especially for EV and stationary storage markets. Meanwhile, investors favor projects that combine ESG benefits with exposure to high-value nickel chemicals.

By locking in an offtake pathway ahead of full-scale commissioning, both firms position themselves for an expected demand upturn toward 2027. If execution stays on track, the collaboration could become a reference model for similar nickel, cobalt and lithium recycling deals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement underscores how offtake-linked recycling hubs are becoming central to North America’s battery raw materials strategy. The commercial validation of Aqua Metals’ nickel carbonate also highlights the maturing economics of hydrometallurgical recycling versus imported intermediates. Market participants should watch how quickly the partners convert this non-binding framework into bankable, long-term contracts.

Westwin Signs $350mn Nickel Supply Deal with Turkey’s Golden Age FZE

Westwin Elements

Expanding US Nickel Refining Reach

US nickel firm Westwin Elements has secured its first binding supply deal worth $350mn with Turkey’s Golden Age Free Zone Establishment (FZE). The Oklahoma-based company will provide 2,600 t/yr of carbonyl-nickel powder and class 1 nickel briquettes under the agreement. Golden Age FZE, a subsidiary of Apex Group-Turkiye, will serve as Westwin’s exclusive distributor and marketing partner across Turkey and neighboring regions.

Boosting Domestic Refining and Global Partnerships

Westwin operates the United States’ first nickel refinery and plans to expand output significantly. Production is set to grow from 18,000 t/yr to a nameplate capacity of 68,000 t/yr by 2034. The Turkish deal represents part of Westwin’s wider strategy to diversify its customer base and build supply contracts with original equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, the agreement aligns with broader US government efforts to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing, with President Donald Trump backing accelerated refining in Oklahoma since taking office.

The nickel supply deal not only reinforces US-Turkey trade ties but also demonstrates Westwin’s ambition to establish a global footprint in nickel refining. By pairing domestic capacity growth with targeted international partnerships, the company is positioning itself as a long-term supplier of high-purity nickel products essential for advanced manufacturing and clean energy applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Westwin’s $350mn nickel deal highlights the importance of expanding US refining capacity while building global partnerships. With Turkey acting as a gateway to surrounding markets, Westwin gains both regional influence and strategic diversification. This agreement also underscores how nickel is becoming central to both geopolitical strategies and industrial supply chains.

Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement unravels as nickel prices slump

Stellantis

Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement is ending, underscoring how weak nickel markets are reshaping EV battery contracts. The Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement covered nickel and cobalt sulphate from Australia’s NiWest project but failed on key milestones. As a result, the Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement now joins a growing list of battery metal deals under pressure from low prices and tight funding.

NiWest delays expose battery metals project risk

Alliance Nickel and Stellantis agreed in 2023 to supply 170,000t of nickel sulphate and 12,000t of cobalt sulphate. The volumes represented around 40pc of NiWest’s forecast production, anchoring the project’s commercial foundation. However, low nickel prices and tighter financing conditions have slowed NiWest’s development and triggered missed contractual milestones.

Market conditions have turned sharply since the deal was signed. Oversupply from Indonesia and softer demand from EV and steel sectors have hit prices. The LME three-month nickel price has dropped nearly 40pc since May 2023, falling to $15,117.50/t by 7 November. In this context, long-term offtake commitments are harder to sustain for both miners and OEMs.

The termination becomes effective on 3 December, formally ending the 2023 agreement. For Alliance, the loss of a top-tier automotive anchor customer complicates project financing. For Stellantis, it removes a fixed nickel sulphate commitment tied to a project still at the development stage.

EV supply chains tighten standards on battery materials

Stellantis is also recalibrating its broader battery materials portfolio. Earlier this week, it cancelled a supply agreement with Australian battery materials supplier Novonix over product specification issues. This second cancellation highlights how automakers now demand tighter performance, quality and timing certainty from upstream partners.

Battery metal developers face a tougher landscape as OEMs pursue flexibility and risk diversification. Projects like NiWest must now compete not only on resource quality and ESG credentials, but also on cost resilience under low-price scenarios. Stronger balance sheets, staged developments and diversified customer bases will be critical to securing future offtake.

At the same time, OEMs remain under pressure to secure long-term critical mineral supply for electrification targets. Strategic partnerships will likely shift toward more advanced projects, integrated value chains, and suppliers with proven technical and financial execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The collapse of the Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement illustrates how quickly the battery metals balance of power can shift. When nickel prices slide and capital tightens, marginal projects and early-stage offtakes become vulnerable, even with blue-chip OEM partners. For miners, bankable projects now require true cost competitiveness and technical robustness, not just strong EV narratives.

LME Harjavalta Nickel Suspension Puts Class 1 Nickel Warrants Under Review

Harjavalta Nickel

LME Harjavalta nickel suspension will stop new warranting of Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta’s primary nickel briquettes and cathodes from 19 June. The London Metal Exchange said no further deliveries of these Finnish-produced products will be accepted for warranting after that date.

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension does not remove existing warranted metal from the system. Material already on warrant can continue to circulate, but once cancelled after the deadline, it will not be eligible for re-warranting.

The move matters because Harjavalta is a key European source of class 1 nickel. Its cathodes and briquettes are used in stainless steel, battery materials, alloy production, and other high-purity nickel applications.

Administrative Review Appears More Likely Than Supply Disruption

Market participants view the LME Harjavalta nickel suspension as likely procedural rather than a sign of quality or production problems. The three-month lead time suggests the issue may relate to documentation, compliance, or brand listing requirements.

The LME regularly reviews listed brands to ensure producers meet exchange rules. These rules include responsible sourcing standards and documentation obligations, which have become more important across metals markets.

That interpretation limits the immediate market impact. Traders do not expect a major disruption to European nickel availability or premiums, especially because other high-grade nickel brands remain available within the broader class 1 supply pool.

Class 1 Nickel Flexibility Reduces Near-Term Market Risk

Harjavalta material remains important, but the European market has some flexibility through substitution between high-grade forms such as cathodes, briquettes, and rounds. This flexibility should reduce the short-term impact of the warranting suspension.

The spot market may also see limited direct disruption because Harjavalta has reportedly committed most near-term capacity to term contracts. That means spot availability was already constrained before the LME announcement.

Still, the suspension highlights the rising importance of exchange compliance in critical metal supply chains. For nickel buyers, warrant eligibility, responsible sourcing documentation, and brand approval status are becoming part of supply risk management.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension is unlikely to trigger an immediate supply shock, but it shows how administrative compliance can affect market liquidity. In class 1 nickel, exchange status now matters almost as much as physical availability.

Indonesian Cobalt Production Capacity Set to Double by 2027

Indonesian Cobalt

Indonesian cobalt production capacity will more than double to 114,000 tonnes by 2027 from 55,000 tonnes in 2024, according to National Economic Council member Septian Hario Seto. The expansion comes from Indonesia's high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations, which process nickel laterite ores to extract both nickel and cobalt. However, Indonesian cobalt production capacity growth will likely plateau after 2027 due to rising project costs and slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth.

HPAL Operations Drive Cobalt Output Growth Despite Rising Costs

Indonesia's cobalt capacity expansion relies heavily on HPAL technology, which extracts cobalt as a byproduct of nickel processing operations. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Xu Aidong confirmed that capacity increases will probably stabilize given mounting economic pressures. Meanwhile, rising sulfur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines are increasing HPAL project costs significantly.

Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production maintains 30-40% profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000 per tonne, partly due to cobalt content value. Indonesia exported nearly 1.56 million tonnes of MHP last year, with cobalt exports reaching approximately 44,350 tonnes. Therefore, Indonesian cobalt production remains economically viable despite commodity price volatility.

DRC Export Ban Creates Market Uncertainty and Technology Shifts

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban threatens to drive prices higher while potentially reducing long-term cobalt demand through technology adaptation. Seto warned that sustained export restrictions could backfire by accelerating battery chemistry changes to reduce cobalt content. As a result, the industry witnessed massive adoption of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) 811 technology during 2017-2018 price spikes.

Indonesia processes MHP directly into precursors without crystallizing nickel sulfate first, streamlining production efficiency and reducing costs. The country views cobalt as inseparable from nickel production rather than an independent mineral resource. However, Indonesia recognizes its responsibility as a major producer to ensure reliable global supply chains.

Seto emphasized that Indonesia's position on nickel mirrors the DRC's influence on cobalt markets, requiring careful market management. Major producers must balance supply control with market reliability to avoid being perceived as unreliable suppliers. Consequently, both countries face pressure to maintain sufficient global supply while maximizing domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's strategic approach to cobalt as a nickel byproduct positions the country advantageously in global battery supply chains while the DRC's export restrictions create market uncertainty. The doubling of Indonesian cobalt production capacity by 2027 could provide crucial supply diversification for battery manufacturers seeking alternatives to DRC sources, though technology shifts toward lower-cobalt chemistries may limit long-term demand growth.

Indonesian Nickel Ore Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply

Indonesian Nickel

Weather Disruptions and Mine Closures Drive Market Shift

Indonesian nickel ore prices have risen sharply in 2025 as domestic supply constraints tighten. Prices for 1.6pc nickel content ore with 35pc moisture reached $53/wet metric tonne (wmt) in May, up from $44/wmt in January, driven by stronger premiums. The surge is linked to extended heavy rains on Sulawesi Island since November 2024, which disrupted operations in key hubs such as the Morowali Industrial Park. Sulawesi holds about 70pc of Indonesia’s total nickel ore resources.

The government’s order for state-owned PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) to halt mining in West Papua’s Raja Ampat — a marine protected area — further tightened supply. The site, with a 3mn wmt/yr quota, produces high-grade nickel ore. Limited availability has shifted mining firms toward tender-based sales rather than bilateral deals, while large buyers offer $1–2/wmt premiums to secure volumes over 100,000wmt.

Upstream-Downstream Price Divergence

Despite the rise in nickel ore prices, downstream products have seen declines. China’s stainless steel 304 cold-rolled coil prices fell to 13,250 yuan/t in May from 13,650 yuan/t in March. Indonesia’s nickel pig iron (NPI) export prices dropped to $116/metric tonne unit (mtu) in June from $124.50/mtu in March. This divergence stems from the upstream market remaining a seller’s market since 2023, as ore supply growth lags behind expanding nickel products capacity.

Indonesia’s nickel products output — including NPI, ferronickel, mixed hydroxide precipitate, and matte — is projected to rise to 2.49mn t in nickel metal equivalent in 2025, up from 1.83mn t in 2023. Consequently, ore demand could increase from 200mn wmt to 280mn wmt in the same period.

Rising Imports from the Philippines

With local ore insufficient, Indonesian producers have increased nickel ore imports from the Philippines since mid-2023. Imports surged to nearly 10mn t in 2024, representing around 6pc of total demand, and are on track for another increase in 2025. Shipments in January–April already exceeded imports in the first half of 2024.

Philippine ore is essential for blending with Indonesian ore to achieve the required silicon and magnesium ratios for different processing technologies, including RKEF and HPAL. Changing ore specifications after 15 years of intense mining in Indonesia have made such blending critical to meet production needs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel ore market illustrates how environmental conditions and policy decisions can shift global supply chains. As upstream prices climb despite downstream weakness, reliance on Philippine imports will likely deepen, reshaping trade flows and influencing pricing power in the nickel sector.

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reshape markets as PGMs rally

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook signals a split market for base and precious metals. Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook highlights persistent nickel oversupply, but tighter copper after 2025. Meanwhile, the company points to a strong PGM rebound driven by investment flows.

Nickel surplus persists as Indonesian supply keeps rising

Indonesian supply growth keeps the nickel market in structural surplus. Nornickel expects global nickel output at 3.86mn t in 2025 and 4.1mn t in 2026. Indonesia accounts for more than 66% of total production in that outlook.

Demand rises, but it still trails supply growth. Nornickel sees demand at 3.62mn t in 2025 and 3.83mn t in 2026. As a result, the market could post a surplus above 200,000t in both years.

Prices stay near marginal conversion costs for class 1 material. LME three-month nickel traded around $15,000/t for much of the past 18 months. However, prices fell to $14,322.50/t in the latest session cited by Nornickel.

Copper tightens after 2025 as concentrates stay constrained and PGMs rebound

Copper tightness could intensify after 2025 as concentrate deficits deepen. Nornickel notes copper prices rose more than 30% through 2025 and broke above $11,500/t by early December. Meanwhile, Comex–LME arbitrage pulled metal into the US and tightened availability elsewhere.

Mine disruptions keep concentrate supply under pressure. Nornickel expects mined copper output at 23.4mn t in 2025 and 23.8mn t in 2026. Therefore, treatment charges stay stressed, with spot TCs cited around -$40/t.

Refined copper balances look fragile in 2025 and tighter in 2026. Nornickel projects refined supply at 27.7mn t versus demand at 27.6mn t in 2025. As a result, 2026 could slip into a small deficit at 28.3mn t supply and 28.4mn t demand.

PGM prices rebounded as investors returned after gold’s surge. Platinum rose about 20% to around $1,650/oz, while palladium climbed about 38% to around $1,550/oz. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and underinvestment keep primary supply trending lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reinforces a two-speed metals cycle for 2026 planning. Nickel needs production restraint, not demand hope, to rebalance. Therefore, copper and PGMs may carry the tighter risk premium across industrial supply chains.

Safran Forging Press Expansion Strengthens France’s Jet Engine Supply Chain

Safran, Forging

Safran forging press investment in Gennevilliers will expand the French engine manufacturer’s capacity to produce large, high-performance aerospace components. The company plans to install a 30,000t hydraulic press that is expected to become operational in 2029.

The €150mn press will be able to produce 14,000 parts a year at full capacity. It will support higher output of the CFM International LEAP engine, which Safran jointly manufactures with GE Aerospace.

Safran forging press expansion also supports military engine supply chains. The new equipment will help produce parts for engines used in the Rafale, Mirage and A400M aircraft, as well as high-thrust GE engines where Safran supplies high-pressure and low-pressure compressors.

The investment shows how aerospace manufacturers are preparing for sustained engine demand. Airbus and Boeing are both trying to raise production rates for the A320neo Family and 737 MAX, increasing pressure on qualified forging, casting, machining and superalloy supply chains.

High-Tonnage Forging Capacity Targets Future Engine Programmes

The new Safran forging press will give the company more capability to manufacture large engine parts. This is important because next-generation civil aircraft engines are expected to require larger, more complex and more demanding forged components.

Large hydraulic presses are strategic assets in aerospace manufacturing. They allow producers to shape high-strength alloys under controlled conditions, improving structural integrity, fatigue performance and reliability in critical rotating and static engine parts.

The press will also reduce dependence on constrained external forging capacity. Aerospace supply chains have faced recurring bottlenecks in qualified forgings, castings, titanium products, nickel alloy parts and precision-machined components.

For Safran, adding high-tonnage forging capacity supports both current programmes and future engine platforms. The investment strengthens control over key manufacturing steps at a time when engine makers are trying to improve delivery reliability.

Nickel Superalloys and Titanium Remain Critical Engine Materials

Safran’s investment has direct implications for high-performance metals. Nickel-based superalloys are essential for turbine forgings because they retain strength, creep resistance and oxidation resistance at extreme temperatures.

These materials are used in the hottest sections of jet engines, where ordinary alloys cannot survive. As engine efficiency targets rise, demand for advanced nickel superalloy processing remains strategically important.

Titanium is also critical in lower-temperature engine sections, including low-pressure compressors. Its high strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance make it essential for aerospace systems where weight reduction and mechanical performance matter together.

The Gennevilliers project follows Safran’s broader capacity buildout. The company is investing in a new turbine casting facility in La Janais, Rennes, scheduled for commissioning in 2027, and has committed €70mn to expand complex rotating part capacity at Le Creusot by 2029.

Together, these investments point to a coordinated engine materials strategy. Safran is strengthening forging, casting and rotating component capacity to support civil and military aerospace demand through the next production cycle.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s 30,000t press shows that aerospace competitiveness increasingly depends on control of qualified materials processing capacity. Nickel superalloy and titanium supply will remain critical as engine makers race to meet higher build rates without sacrificing reliability.

Nickel surplus to widen through 2026: INSG outlook for miners and metals markets

INSG(

The nickel surplus to widen through 2026 is reshaping expectations for miners, traders and stainless producers worldwide. According to the latest INSG forecast, the nickel surplus to widen through 2026 will see production consistently outpace usage, even as global economic activity proves more resilient than expected. As a result, the nickel surplus to widen through 2026 is set to reach 209,000t in 2025 and 261,000t in 2026, with primary output rising to 3.81mn t this year and 4.09mn t in 2026 against usage of 3.6mn t and 3.82mn t.

Stainless demand supports nickel, but batteries lose momentum

Nickel demand remains supported by stainless steel, but battery growth has clearly cooled. Higher stainless steel output continues to underpin core nickel usage, particularly in Asia and Europe. However, battery demand has slowed as automakers and cell producers shift towards non-nickel chemistries such as LFP and accelerate plug-in hybrids over pure battery electric vehicles. Therefore, the high-growth battery narrative has softened, easing pressure on high-purity nickel sulphate demand.

Meanwhile, this demand shift is forcing producers and investors to reassess project pipelines focused on battery-grade nickel. Margins are under strain where costs are high and product mixes are heavily exposed to the EV segment. In this environment, stainless steel remains the anchor sector, but it cannot fully absorb the excess tonnes entering the system. This imbalance feeds directly into the widening surplus and keeps a lid on any sustained price rally.

Indonesia drives supply growth as others retrench

On the supply side, Indonesia remains the dominant driver despite tighter regulatory control. The government has delayed permit approvals, seized non-compliant land and punished firms that fail reclamation duties. However, the INSG believes these interventions have only created temporary disruptions, with overall Indonesian nickel output still expected to increase through 2026. This continued expansion reinforces the structural surplus and raises competitive pressure on higher-cost regions.

Outside Indonesia, weaker profitability has already forced several producers to scale back or suspend operations. In China, the shift from nickel pig iron towards more refined cathode output is forecast to continue as the industry optimises for flexibility and value. Nickel sulphate production is expected to ease in 2025 as battery demand softens, before recovering in 2026 when market conditions stabilise. For now, prices remain trapped between steady stainless demand and a widely recognised surplus in exchange-traded Class 1 inventories, with three-month nickel recently trading near $15,480/t.

Financial conditions are improving, with global inflation forecast to decline across most G20 economies by 2026. Even so, the INSG warns that tariffs and trade measures could offset some macro tailwinds by adding friction to investment decisions, supply chains and downstream demand growth. If policy risk rises, it may delay project sanctions and accelerate closures at the margin, but the current surplus path remains firmly in place.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The INSG nickel surplus outlook underscores a market where supply discipline lags structural investment made during the last bull cycle. For producers, cost reduction, product differentiation and downstream partnerships will be critical to survive a prolonged surplus. For consumers in stainless and batteries, the coming years offer a rare window to secure long-term nickel units on favourable terms before the next demand wave arrives.

GLE Alloys Stainless Nickel Yard to Open in Pennsylvania in May

GLE Scrap Metal

GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard development will give GLE Scrap Metal a dedicated platform for stainless steel and nickel processing in Pennsylvania. The full-service recycler plans to open the new non-ferrous yard in May through its newly created subsidiary, GLE Alloys.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard is being built on 10 acres along the Monongahela River in Braddock. The site will include a dock for bulk barge loading, rail access, and about 80,000ft² of warehouse space.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard strengthens GLE’s position in higher-value alloy scrap. Stainless steel and nickel scrap require more specialized sorting, handling, chemistry control, and logistics than ordinary ferrous scrap, making the new facility strategically relevant for mills, processors, and alloy consumers.

River, Rail and Warehouse Access Strengthen Scrap Logistics

The Braddock site’s logistics infrastructure is central to the project’s value. Barge loading on the Monongahela River gives GLE Alloys access to bulk movement, while rail access improves shipment flexibility for larger volumes.

The warehouse space also supports better material control. Stainless and nickel scrap often need segregation by grade, alloy family, and chemistry before shipment to consumers.

Braddock’s industrial location adds further relevance. The area is also home to US Steel’s Mon Valley blast furnace operations, placing GLE Alloys inside a long-established metals corridor with existing industrial infrastructure.

GLE Expands Beyond Regional Recycling Into Alloy Processing

GLE Scrap Metal already operates six recycling facilities in Florida and Michigan. The company also runs a copper wire processing plant in Ocoee, Florida, and has an aluminum wire and URD wire processing facility through sister company Mallin Companies in Kansas City.

The creation of GLE Alloys shows a more focused move into specialty scrap. Stainless steel and nickel-bearing materials are tied to stainless mills, superalloy producers, foundries, aerospace supply chains, energy equipment, and industrial manufacturing.

GLE has appointed James Merrills as commercial director and Tom Kaikis as operations director for the new subsidiary. Their stainless and nickel experience should support customer development, material sourcing, and operational discipline as the facility ramps up.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GLE’s Braddock investment shows that alloy scrap is becoming a more specialized and logistics-driven business. As nickel and stainless supply chains look for reliable secondary feedstock, yards with chemistry control, storage capacity, and multimodal transport will gain strategic value.