Mt Marion Lithium Expansion Advances as MinRes and Ganfeng Lift Spodumene Supply

Mineral Resources

Mt Marion lithium expansion is moving ahead after Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium reached a final investment decision on a A$490mn upgrade at the Western Australian mine. The project will raise 6% spodumene concentrate output from 500,000 t/yr to 600,000 t/yr.

Mt Marion lithium expansion reflects renewed confidence in spodumene markets after a period of stronger pricing, Chinese demand and supply disruption from Zimbabwean export controls. The decision also reinforces Australia’s role as a core lithium feedstock supplier to global battery material chains.

Mt Marion lithium expansion includes A$220mn for underground mine development, A$240mn for a flotation plant and A$30mn for non-processing infrastructure. Construction is scheduled to begin in July-September.

The partners expect to commission the mine within 12 months of construction starting, with production ramp-up over the following six months. That timeline makes Mt Marion an important near-term growth project in the Australian hard-rock lithium sector.

Underground Mining Extends Mine Life and Feed Flexibility

The underground mine will supplement ore from the existing open pit and contribute up to 40% of processing feed. This will extend Mt Marion’s remaining mine life by six years beyond the previous estimate of 10 years.

That is strategically important because mine life extension improves supply visibility for customers and investors. Battery chemical producers need stable spodumene feedstock to support long-term lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate production.

The underground development also gives MinRes and Ganfeng more operational flexibility. Combining open-pit and underground ore can support feed blending, grade control and continuity as the mine matures.

The project will cause minimal disruption to existing operations, according to the company. That matters because the mine is already a major producing asset and any downtime could affect near-term shipments.

Mt Marion is also backed by a strong downstream partner. Ganfeng is one of China’s leading lithium companies, giving the project a direct link to one of the world’s largest battery materials markets.

Flotation Plant Targets Higher-Grade Product Mix

The new flotation plant will remove SC3.5 product from MinRes’ mix and deliver a minimum SC5 grade product. This is a key upgrade because higher-grade concentrate can improve processing efficiency for downstream converters.

SC6 remains the benchmark product for hard-rock lithium supply. Increasing SC6 output to 600,000 t/yr gives Mt Marion stronger exposure to higher-value concentrate markets.

The investment economics are highly sensitive to price. At an assumed SC6 price of $2,700/t, MinRes expects the expansion payback period to be less than one year.

Spodumene prices have risen in recent months, supported by Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate export controls and strong Chinese demand. The latest Australian SC6 assessment was $2,661/t on 19 May, down from $2,811/t a week earlier but still elevated enough to support renewed investment.

MinRes also cited higher lithium prices as a reason for restarting operations at its Bald Hill mine in Western Australia. Together, these moves suggest producers are again positioning for stronger lithium feedstock demand.

The broader lithium market remains volatile, but the Mt Marion decision shows that high-quality Australian assets can still attract capital when pricing, partners and mine-life extension align.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mt Marion’s expansion shows that lithium investment is returning first to established, scalable assets with strong downstream links. The key lesson is that the next lithium cycle will reward producers that can improve grade, extend mine life and secure reliable routes into China’s battery supply chain.

Bald Hill Lithium Mine Restart Signals Stronger Spodumene Recovery

Bald Hill Lithium

Bald Hill lithium mine operations are restarting after Mineral Resources responded to a sustained recovery in lithium prices. The Western Australian mine had been on care and maintenance since November 2024.

Bald Hill lithium mine ramp-up will begin in late May, with crushing and mining operations scheduled to start in June. First spodumene concentrate production is expected in July.

Bald Hill lithium mine shipments are planned from the Port of Esperance in the third quarter of 2026. Full capacity is expected in the fourth quarter.

The restart shows that stronger spodumene prices are beginning to bring suspended Australian lithium capacity back into the market. It also confirms that producers are becoming more confident after the severe lithium downturn that forced project closures and delays.

Spodumene Prices Bring Idled Capacity Back

Bald Hill has production capacity of about 165,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 5.1% spodumene concentrate. On a normalized 6% spodumene concentrate basis, capacity is around 140,000 dmt/yr.

The restart is modest compared with Australia’s largest lithium operations, but it matters for market sentiment. Idled mines returning to production show that the price recovery is no longer only a paper-market signal.

Mineral Resources also operates the Wodgina and Marion lithium mines. The company has lifted production guidance for both assets for the fiscal year ending June 2026.

Wodgina guidance increased to 280,000 dmt of SC6, while Marion guidance rose to 220,000 dmt of SC6. Together with Bald Hill, these assets strengthen MinRes’ position as a major Australian spodumene producer.

The restart also adds more supply to the seaborne lithium concentrate market. That could help converters secure feedstock, but it also raises the risk that returning capacity eventually caps price upside if demand growth slows.

Posco Stake Reinforces Battery Supply Chain Link

South Korean steelmaker Posco acquired a 30% stake in MinRes in November 2025 for $765mn. That investment gives the restart a stronger downstream battery supply-chain connection.

Posco has been expanding across battery materials, and access to Australian spodumene can support long-term lithium chemical production. For MinRes, the relationship provides strategic capital and potential customer alignment.

Western Australia remains one of the world’s most important lithium supply regions. Its hard-rock mines feed converters in China, South Korea and other battery manufacturing hubs.

The Bald Hill restart therefore fits a wider supply-chain pattern. Lithium producers are trying to rebuild volumes as prices recover, while downstream players seek more secure feedstock before battery demand accelerates again.

The key question is whether the recovery remains strong enough to absorb returning supply. If prices hold, more idled lithium capacity could follow Bald Hill back into production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bald Hill’s restart shows that lithium’s recovery is becoming operational, not just financial. The market now needs to watch whether returning Australian supply supports battery security or creates the next round of oversupply pressure.

US Pela Antimony Mine Partnership Advances North Macedonia Critical Minerals Project

Pela Antimony

US Pela antimony mine cooperation will support redevelopment of the Krstov Dol antimony mine and processing operation in North Macedonia. The US International Development Finance Corporation signed an agreement with Australian mine developer Pela Global to provide up to $5mn for project development.

The funding was approved in March and will help Pela advance a site that previously produced around 50,000t of ore before closing in 1981 because of weak antimony prices. The company now expects to produce high-grade antimony concentrate from the project.

US Pela antimony mine development matters because antimony has become a strategically sensitive mineral for defense, flame retardants, batteries and cable alloys. Western governments are increasingly looking for supply outside dominant producing regions.

Krstov Dol Could Add Strategic Antimony Supply in Europe

The Krstov Dol project gives the US and its partners a potential antimony supply route in southeastern Europe. Its redevelopment could support regional critical minerals security if Pela can confirm mine economics, processing performance and permitting requirements.

Antimony is important in military applications, where it supports ammunition, defense alloys and other specialized materials. It is also used in flame retardants and as an alloying element with lead for batteries and cables.

The project’s location in North Macedonia adds geopolitical value. European and allied supply chains need more diversified sources of minor metals, especially as defense spending and critical mineral procurement become more closely linked.

DFC Funding Shows Antimony’s Rising Policy Importance

The DFC’s funding commitment shows that antimony is moving higher on the critical minerals agenda. A $5mn development package is modest in scale, but it can help advance technical work, project studies and early redevelopment planning.

For Pela, the agreement adds financial and strategic support from a US government-backed institution. That support can improve project credibility as the company works to restart a mine that has been inactive for decades.

For the broader market, the US Pela antimony mine agreement reflects a wider trend. Governments are no longer waiting for private capital alone to rebuild strategic mineral supply chains. They are using development finance to support upstream projects before supply shortages become more severe.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Krstov Dol agreement shows that antimony is becoming a defense-linked supply-chain priority. The key test will be whether a small, historic mine can be redeveloped into a reliable source of high-grade concentrate for allied markets.

Hancock Lithium Mine Plan Advances as Spodumene Prices Recover

Hancock Lithium Mine

Hancock lithium mine plans in Western Australia are moving forward as stronger lithium concentrate prices revive confidence in large-scale spodumene development. Hancock Prospecting plans to build the A$1bn Andover mine, targeting production of up to 1.1mn t/yr of lithium concentrate.

Hancock lithium mine construction is scheduled to start in November 2028, with a two-year construction period. The project is planned for a 30-year operating life and would process 6mn t/yr of ore.

Hancock lithium mine development reflects a shift in lithium sentiment after the deep price collapse that forced project delays and suspensions across the sector. Spodumene prices have rebounded as Chinese battery demand improves and supply expectations tighten.

The Andover project is strategically important because Australia remains one of the world’s key hard-rock lithium supply bases. New capacity from Western Australia could support converters, battery producers and electric vehicle supply chains seeking long-term spodumene feedstock.

Andover Adds Scale to Western Australia’s Spodumene Pipeline

The Andover mine would become a major new lithium concentrate source if developed as planned. Annual output of up to 1.1mn t would give the project meaningful weight in the seaborne spodumene market.

The project sits within a broader ownership structure shaped by recent consolidation. Hancock Prospecting and Chilean lithium producer SQM partnered to acquire Azure Minerals in a A$1.7bn deal completed in May 2024 through their jointly owned company, SH Mining.

Andover is 60% owned by Azure, while Croydon Gold, a subsidiary of the Creasy Group, holds the remaining 40%. The involvement of Hancock and SQM gives the project both Australian mining strength and global lithium-market experience.

SQM’s role is especially relevant. The Chilean producer brings downstream lithium market knowledge, while Hancock adds financial capacity and Australian project execution capability.

The planned 30-year mine life also matters. Battery supply chains need long-duration feedstock sources, not only short-cycle spot supply. A project of this scale could support long-term offtake and conversion strategies.

Price Recovery Revives Lithium Project Economics

The Andover plan comes after a sharp recovery in spodumene concentrate prices. Prices rose in April as tighter supply expectations followed Zimbabwe’s introduction of export quotas for lithium concentrate.

Spodumene prices had previously collapsed to $900-1,100/t cif China in January 2024, down 83% after supply growth outpaced demand. That downturn forced many lithium developers to slow, delay or reassess projects.

Prices later began recovering in late 2025 as demand from China’s lithium-ion battery sector improved market sentiment. Stronger pricing has now made large hard-rock projects more attractive again.

However, lithium remains a volatile market. New supply from Australia, Africa, South America and China can quickly change balances if demand growth slows or inventories rebuild.

For Hancock, timing will be critical. Construction is not expected to start until late 2028, meaning the project will enter the market after the current price recovery has already been tested by several more years of battery demand and supply growth.

The strategic value remains clear. If lithium demand continues to rise from electric vehicles and energy storage, Andover could become an important feedstock source for global converters. If supply again expands too quickly, project economics may face renewed pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hancock’s Andover plan shows that lithium investment confidence is returning, but only for projects with scale, strong sponsors and long-term strategic value. The market has recovered from its deepest downturn, but future winners will still need cost discipline and secure downstream demand.

Element 25 Butcherbird Manganese Expansion Gains Funding for Battery Supply Chain

Element 25

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion has moved forward after the Australian metals producer raised $18mn in equity to support the next phase of mine growth. The funding will help expand manganese concentrate output from the Butcherbird mine in Western Australia.

The project is expected to triple Butcherbird’s manganese concentrate production to 1.1mn t/yr from 365,000 t/yr. Full mechanical completion and commissioning are expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion is strategically important because the mine will supply feedstock for the company’s planned battery-grade manganese sulphate refinery in Louisiana. That project links Australian ore supply with US battery materials processing.

The expansion also strengthens Element 25’s role in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company already has offtake agreements with General Motors and Stellantis, giving the project direct exposure to automaker demand for non-China battery materials.

Butcherbird Expansion Builds Manganese Feedstock Scale

Western Australia’s state government approved the Butcherbird expansion in March 2025. The mine is expected to operate for at least 18 years, giving Element 25 a long-term feedstock platform.

The planned increase to 1.1mn t/yr of manganese concentrate would materially change the scale of the operation. Higher concentrate output should support downstream conversion into battery-grade manganese sulphate while also leaving room for sales into traditional steel markets.

Manganese remains a key steelmaking input because it improves strength and toughness. Element 25 plans to sell excess concentrate to steelmakers, creating a secondary demand channel outside batteries.

However, the main strategic value is in batteries. Manganese is increasingly important for lithium-ion battery chemistries as automakers seek lower-cost, more secure and less cobalt-dependent cathode materials.

Louisiana Refinery Links Australia to US Battery Materials Policy

Element 25’s manganese concentrate will mainly feed its battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate facility in Louisiana. The refinery is planned for 135,000 t/yr of production capacity.

The US government backed the Louisiana refinery with a $166mn grant in January last year. This support reflects Washington’s effort to build domestic processing capacity for battery materials and reduce reliance on China-controlled supply chains.

The Australian government also opened a A$50mn loan package in June to support the Butcherbird expansion. Together, the US and Australian support show how allied governments are trying to connect mining, refining and EV manufacturing supply chains.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion therefore fits a broader industrial strategy. Australia provides the resource base, while the US builds refining capacity closer to automakers and battery manufacturers.

The project’s success will depend on execution at both ends of the chain. Butcherbird must deliver concentrate at scale, while Louisiana must convert that material into battery-grade sulphate that meets customer specifications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Element 25’s project shows how manganese is moving from a steelmaking material into a strategic battery supply input. The key challenge will be proving that mine expansion and US chemical refining can scale together on the timeline automakers require.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

Australian Government Loan Supports Butcherbird Manganese Mine

Element 25

Butcherbird Manganese Mine Expansion Gains Federal Backing

The Australian government has approved a A$50mn ($32mn) loan package to support Element 25’s Butcherbird manganese mine expansion. The financing consists of a A$42.5mn debt facility and a A$7.5mn overdraft, enabling the company to triple annual concentrate output from 365,000 tonnes to 1.1mn tonnes.

Western Australia’s state government granted project approval in March, allowing Element 25 to target a 2026 production start. However, the company has yet to secure all required capital and continues discussions with potential partners. Element 25 may also raise funds through offtake agreements, royalty streams, and prepayment deals.

Strategic Supply for US and Global Markets

The Butcherbird manganese mine expansion will strengthen Element 25’s role in the global manganese supply chain. The company plans to channel concentrate to its planned 135,000 t/yr manganese sulphate monohydrate refinery in the US, with additional output directed toward steelmakers worldwide.

The US government has already backed Element 25’s refinery project with a $166mn grant, reflecting Washington’s strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals supply. Automakers General Motors and Stellantis have also pledged to fund the refinery, ensuring long-term offtake for battery-grade manganese products essential for electric vehicles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Element 25’s Butcherbird expansion underscores how financing frameworks are reshaping manganese supply chains. With strong support from both Australian and US governments, the project highlights the strategic importance of manganese for steelmaking and battery manufacturing. Partnerships with automakers further illustrate how downstream industries are actively securing upstream resources in the race toward electrification.

Australia Mineral Exploration Spending Rises as Iron Ore and Gold Attract Capital

Iron ore

Australia mineral exploration spending increased strongly in the first quarter, supported by higher investment in iron ore and gold despite weaker spending on copper, nickel, cobalt and coal.

Australia mineral exploration spending rose by 16.3% year on year to A$949.3mn in January-March, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Gold and iron ore remained the two largest categories of exploration expenditure.

Australia mineral exploration spending patterns show a widening divide between commodities. Producers are continuing to invest in iron ore reserve replacement, while weak nickel and cobalt prices are discouraging new exploration.

Iron ore exploration expenditure increased by 4.7% year on year to A$186mn. Gold exploration spending climbed much faster, rising by 53.4% to A$450.9mn.

Iron Ore Investment Stays Strong as Producers Replace Reserves

Iron ore remains one of Australia’s most important mining commodities, and continued exploration spending reflects the need to replace depleting reserves at established operations.

Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist expects domestic iron ore exploration to remain strong as major producers sustain long-term mine life and feed quality.

This is strategically important because Australia remains a major supplier to Asian steelmakers. Maintaining reserve depth is essential for preserving export volumes, mine productivity and Australia’s position in the seaborne iron ore market.

Gold recorded the largest increase in exploration spending. The 53.4% year-on-year rise to A$450.9mn suggests stronger investor appetite for projects offering exposure to high gold prices and more favourable project economics.

Silver, lead and zinc exploration also strengthened, with spending rising by 29.9%. These metals benefit from a combination of precious metal exposure and demand from industrial, infrastructure and energy applications.

Nickel, Cobalt and Coal Lose Exploration Momentum

Nickel and cobalt exploration spending fell by 42.7% year on year, reflecting persistent weakness in global nickel markets and deteriorating economics for Australian producers.

The Office of the Chief Economist expects nickel prices to remain under pressure through 2027 because of continuing global surpluses. Weak pricing has already reduced Australian mine output and discouraged investment in new resources.

Copper exploration spending also declined by 13.1%. This contrasts with copper’s stronger long-term demand outlook and shows that high development costs, permitting risk and competition for capital can still limit exploration despite positive structural demand.

Coal exploration expenditure fell by 22.7% to A$43.2mn. Policy and cost pressures are reinforcing the decline.

New South Wales stopped issuing permits for greenfield thermal coal developments in March 2026, while high royalty rates in Queensland may also be discouraging investment in coking coal exploration.

The result is a more selective Australian exploration market. Capital is flowing toward commodities with stronger pricing, established infrastructure and clearer long-term economics, while weaker or policy-constrained sectors are losing investment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia’s exploration data show that capital is becoming increasingly selective even within strategic minerals. Strong iron ore and gold spending contrasts sharply with nickel and cobalt, where weak economics are overriding long-term critical minerals ambitions.

Mt Carbine Tungsten Mine Expansion Targets Higher Australian Supply

EQ Resources

Mt Carbine tungsten mine operator EQ Resources has approved a A$39mn expansion that will double ore crushing capacity at its Queensland operation. The investment comes as tungsten prices remain elevated following Chinese export controls and stronger global defence demand.

Mt Carbine tungsten mine crushing capacity will increase from 1mn t/yr to 2mn t/yr. EQR expects the project to come online in the January-March quarter of 2027.

Mt Carbine tungsten mine expansion will address the main processing bottleneck at the operation. Additional crushing capacity will allow EQR to process more low-grade stockpiled ore and increase tungsten recovery from material already available at the site.

The company expects the project to add 500 metric tonne units per year of tungsten trioxide output. One mtu represents 10kg of 100% tungsten trioxide content.

Crushing Expansion Unlocks Existing Tungsten Feedstock

Crushing capacity has constrained Mt Carbine’s ability to increase processing volumes. Doubling capacity gives EQR a relatively direct route to higher output without relying entirely on new mine development.

The project will particularly improve access to low-grade stockpiles. This is important because higher tungsten prices can make previously marginal material increasingly economic to process.

EQR plans to fund the expansion through existing cash reserves and expected cash flows from tungsten trioxide sales. The company therefore avoids depending entirely on new external financing for the project.

The economics have improved dramatically as tungsten prices have risen. European ammonium paratungstate prices recently reached around $3,000/mtu, up 590% from a year earlier.

Chinese export controls introduced in February 2025 have been a major driver. Tight Chinese domestic supply and rising defence demand have further strengthened the market.

Tungsten is strategically important because of its hardness, heat resistance and high density. It is used in cutting tools, aerospace components, electronics and defence applications.

Offtake Agreements Secure Routes for Additional Supply

EQR does not expect to rely on a conventional spot market for additional tungsten trioxide output. The company said incremental production will instead move through existing offtake agreements.

Traxys has an agreement covering 3,500 t/yr, while US tungsten manufacturer Elmet Technologies has secured an undisclosed quantity.

EQR has also signed agreements with five undisclosed tungsten manufacturers across Asia, North America and Europe. These contracts cover a combined 9,400t of 50% grade tungsten concentrate over two years.

This diversified offtake structure is strategically significant. Tungsten markets are relatively small and specialised, making long-term customer relationships more important than highly liquid spot trading.

The agreements also connect Australian tungsten production directly with processing and manufacturing customers across several regions. That strengthens Mt Carbine’s role as a non-China tungsten source.

With Chinese export controls increasing procurement risk, western manufacturers are placing greater value on diversified and contractually secured supply. Mt Carbine is positioned to benefit from that shift if EQR completes its expansion on schedule.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mt Carbine shows how high tungsten prices are making existing stockpiles and brownfield expansions more valuable. EQR’s real strategic advantage is the combination of available feedstock, secured offtake and growing demand for non-China tungsten.

Rio Tinto Copper Output Rises as Oyu Tolgoi Offsets Lithium Weakness

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia lifted the group’s global copper performance. The UK-Australian miner produced 229,000t of consolidated copper in January-March, up 9% from a year earlier.

Rio Tinto copper output growth was driven mainly by copper in concentrates from Oyu Tolgoi, where production rose by 56% to 102,000t. The ramp-up helped offset weaker concentrate output at Escondida and lower refined copper production at Kennecott.

The first-quarter result shows the changing shape of Rio Tinto’s portfolio. Copper is gaining strategic weight as electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure support long-term demand, while lithium remains more exposed to weather, ramp-up timing and early-stage project execution.

At the same time, Rio Tinto reported higher alumina production but weaker bauxite and lithium output. Heavy rainfall and cyclone-related disruptions affected Australian bauxite mines, while weather events in Argentina reduced lithium carbonate equivalent production.

Copper Growth Strengthens Despite Mixed Mine Performance

Oyu Tolgoi was the strongest contributor to Rio Tinto copper output in the first quarter. Its continued ramp-up in Mongolia lifted copper in concentrates production to 102,000t, reinforcing the mine’s role as one of the group’s most important growth assets.

The result matters because large copper projects are increasingly difficult to bring into stable production. Oyu Tolgoi gives Rio Tinto a major long-life copper source at a time when global mine supply remains vulnerable to grades, permitting delays and operational disruptions.

Escondida delivered a mixed quarter. Refined copper output at the Chilean operation rose by 21% to 16,000t, but concentrates production fell by 14% to 77,000t.

Kennecott in the US was weaker. Refined copper production fell by 20% to 34,000t because of lower anode inventories after unplanned smelter maintenance and reduced concentrator throughput caused by geotechnical constraints.

Rio Tinto kept its full-year copper production guidance unchanged at 800,000-870,000t. This suggests the company sees first-quarter disruptions as manageable within its broader 2026 plan.

The company also began drilling at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona after completing the land exchange in March. Resolution remains strategically important because it could become a major US copper source if development advances.

Rio Tinto copper output therefore carries both short-term and long-term significance. Oyu Tolgoi is already lifting production, while Resolution represents future supply optionality in a market increasingly focused on domestic and allied copper sources.

Lithium Falls as Weather Disrupts Argentina Operations

Rio Tinto’s lithium performance weakened sharply in the first quarter. Attributable lithium carbonate equivalent production fell by 26% on the year to 12,700t.

The decline was caused by heavy rainfall and weather events that disrupted operations at Olaroz and Fenix in Argentina. These disruptions show that lithium brine and carbonate operations remain sensitive to weather, water balance and site logistics.

The continued ramp-up at the Rincón starter plant partly offset the production impact. Rincón is important for Rio Tinto’s lithium strategy because it supports the company’s expansion into battery materials.

Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 LCE production guidance at 61,000-64,000t. First production from Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida remains on track for the second half of 2026.

The aluminium chain also showed mixed results. Primary aluminium output rose by 1% on the year to 835,000t, but fell by 2% from the previous quarter.

Alumina production increased by 6% to 2.04mn t, while bauxite production fell by 11% to 13.28mn t. Heavy rainfall at Weipa in Queensland and cyclone-related shutdowns at Weipa and Gove reduced bauxite output.

Recycled aluminium production also fell by 8% to 61,000t. Rio Tinto kept 2026 guidance unchanged for primary aluminium, alumina and bauxite, indicating confidence in recovery through the year.

The first-quarter data show a portfolio with different operating pressures. Copper is benefiting from major mine ramp-up, lithium is facing weather disruption, and aluminium raw materials are exposed to Australian climate events.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s first quarter shows why diversified miners need both growth assets and operational resilience. Oyu Tolgoi is strengthening Rio Tinto copper output, but weather-linked lithium and bauxite disruptions show that energy-transition supply chains remain exposed to physical operating risk.

Finniss Lithium Operation Restart Signals Australian Spodumene Supply Return

Core Lithium

Finniss Lithium Operation is returning to production after Core Lithium restarted mining at the Grants open pit in Australia’s Northern Territory. The move marks the reopening of an asset that had been in care and maintenance since 2024 because of weak lithium prices.

Finniss Lithium Operation will process its first ore in the September quarter, with the first spodumene concentrate shipment expected in the December quarter. Additional shipments are planned for 2027.

Finniss Lithium Operation restart reflects the sharp recovery in spodumene prices after supply constraints emerged in late 2025. Core Lithium approved the restart in March as stronger pricing improved the economics of bringing idled capacity back online.

The Grants pit will provide access to around 800,000t of ore and deliver about 100,000t of spodumene concentrate on a 5% lithium oxide basis. Mining has started in line with Core Lithium’s final investment decision schedule and cost expectations.

Grants Pit Brings Near-Term Spodumene Back to Market

The Grants open pit gives Core Lithium a near-term route back into the seaborne spodumene market. First ore processing in the September quarter and first shipment in the December quarter create a clear restart timeline.

This matters because Australian lithium producers are beginning to respond to stronger market conditions. Several operations that were halted during the downturn are now restarting as prices recover.

Spodumene prices have rebounded sharply from the lows reached in December 2025. The recovery has made previously idled hard-rock assets more attractive, especially those with existing infrastructure and established development plans.

For buyers, the return of Finniss adds incremental Australian supply at a time when lithium converters are reassessing feedstock security. But the restart also adds new supply into a market still vulnerable to oversupply if too many projects return at once.

Core Lithium’s timing is therefore important. The company is moving before the next wave of supply fully arrives, but it must still prove stable mining, processing and shipment performance after a long shutdown.

BP33 Sets Up Longer-Term Finniss Expansion

Core Lithium is also advancing infrastructure work at the BP33 underground mine. The company awarded a A$274mn underground mining services contract to Develop Global for a three-to-five-year period.

BP33 is expected to be developed by mid-2027. It should help lift ore production at Finniss to 1.2mn t/yr by mid-2028.

Core Lithium’s final investment decision summary outlines a longer-term plan to produce spodumene concentrate over a 20-year mine life. Expected unit costs are around A$762/t, giving the operation leverage to higher spodumene pricing if execution stays on track.

The restart and BP33 development show how lithium producers are rebuilding confidence after the 2024-25 market downturn. The key difference now is that investors and customers will focus more closely on cost discipline, grade, logistics and customer commitments.

For the broader battery supply chain, Finniss adds another signal that Australian spodumene remains central to global lithium raw material supply. The market recovery is bringing supply back, but long-term balance will depend on whether battery demand can absorb returning and new production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Core Lithium’s restart shows that the lithium cycle has turned enough to bring idled Australian mines back into action. The risk is that recovering prices invite too much supply too quickly, making cost discipline and offtake quality more important than restart headlines.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment strengthens Asian steel supply chains

Australian Iron Ore

The Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment strengthens long term raw material security for Asian steelmakers. The two Japanese trading houses will acquire a combined 15% stake in the Ministers North iron ore projects from BHP in Western Australia. As a result, they will secure offtake rights from an expected 20mn t/yr operation, pending a final investment decision by June 2026.

This Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment also deepens long standing partnerships with BHP in the Pilbara. Itochu will hold an 8% stake and targets 1.6mn t/yr of iron ore, mainly for Chinese customers. Mitsui will take a 7% stake and aims to offtake about 1.4mn t/yr, supplying Japan and other Asian markets. Therefore, each firm will align offtake volumes with its equity share, reinforcing stable contractual flows rather than spot exposure.

Ministers North steps in as Yandi successor

The Ministers North project will effectively replace the aging Yandi mine jointly operated by BHP, Mitsui and Itochu. Yandi is scheduled for a gradual production decline and eventual closure, although the final shutdown date remains undisclosed. Therefore, Ministers North functions as a crucial continuity asset, preserving existing rail, port and blending synergies in Western Australia.

Project timing remains tied to a final investment decision scheduled by June 2026. Commercial operations could then ramp up to the envisaged 20mn t/yr run rate. However, the consortium must still navigate cost inflation, permitting timelines and infrastructure coordination with other Pilbara projects. If delivered on schedule, Ministers North will smooth the transition from Yandi without a major gap in supply.

Broader Pilbara strategy behind Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment

The Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment also sits within a wider Pilbara growth strategy. Mitsui separately announced a $5.3bn commitment in February to acquire a 40% share in the Rhodes Ridge joint venture. The company aims to start commercial operations there by around 2030, although the final investment decision schedule is still under review.

Together, Ministers North and Rhodes Ridge will anchor Mitsui’s long term iron ore portfolio in Western Australia. Meanwhile, Itochu’s additional stake in Ministers North underpins its iron ore flows to China during a period of changing demand patterns. As a result, the Mitsui and Itochu Australian iron ore investment reinforces Japan’s broader goal of diversified, low risk iron ore sourcing across key Asian markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows how Japanese trading houses quietly rebuild long term security in iron ore rather than chase short term price cycles. By backing Ministers North as Yandi’s successor and supporting Rhodes Ridge, Mitsui and Itochu lock in future Pilbara options while steel demand in Asia matures. Market participants should watch how offtake contracts and quality specifications evolve, especially for blends tailored to China and Japan’s decarbonising steel sectors.

Trafigura to provide $65 million to Australian copper, zinc mine

Global trading firm Trafigura has agreed to provide 100 million Australian dollars ($65.1 million) to subsidiaries of Australian mining firm Develop Global for its Woodlawn copper and zinc mine in New South Wales. The loan ensures Woodlawn is "comfortably and fully-funded through to production," aiming for first production and cash flow by mid-2025, subject to a final investment decision, Develop Global stated.

Under a five-year offtake arrangement, Trafigura will purchase all concentrates produced at Woodlawn. Develop Global, formerly Venturex Resources, acquired the Woodlawn project for $21.6 million in February 2022, marking a key investment for its expanding base metals portfolio. The mine, which produced 19.7 million tonnes of high-grade ore from 1978 to 1998, was previously closed due to low metal prices.

According to Develop Global's production restart study published in April, Woodlawn is expected to yield approximately 12,000 tonnes of copper and 36,000 tonnes of zinc annually over an estimated 10-year lifespan. The total projected payable metal over the mine's life is 80,000 tonnes of copper and 218,000 tonnes of zinc.

Core Lithium Stockpile Sale to Glencore Supports Finniss Restart Option

Glencore

Core Lithium stockpile sale to Glencore gives the Australian producer fresh liquidity as it evaluates a potential restart of the Finniss lithium mine in the Northern Territory. The deal reflects how stronger spodumene prices are beginning to reopen strategic options for lithium producers that curtailed operations during the market downturn.

Glencore will buy Core Lithium’s 5,100t spodumene stockpile at $2,023/t on a cif China and 6pc lithium oxide basis. The Core Lithium stockpile sale does not include the company’s 75,000t lithium fines inventory, which remains available for future sales.

The transaction matters because Finniss has been on care and maintenance since July 2024, when weak lithium prices made continued production uneconomic. With spodumene prices recovering sharply, Core Lithium stockpile sale proceeds could help support working capital and restart planning for the 205,000 t/yr operation.

Spodumene Price Recovery Improves Restart Economics

Spodumene prices have rebounded strongly from the lows that forced several Australian lithium producers to shut or suspend assets. When Core moved Finniss into care and maintenance in July 2024, 6pc Li2O spodumene prices were assessed at $909/t fob Australia. By late February 2026, prices had risen to around $2,012/t.

This price recovery changes the strategic logic for Finniss. A restart still depends on costs, mine planning, financing, offtake terms, and customer demand, but the market backdrop is now more supportive than it was during the downturn. Selling stockpiled material to Glencore gives Core a way to monetize inventory without immediately committing to full production.

Core also improved its commercial flexibility by scrapping its previous spodumene offtake agreement with Ganfeng Lithium in September 2025. That decision freed future Finniss output for new spot sales and offtake deals. In a rising price market, that optionality could become valuable.

Glencore Deal Highlights Renewed Interest in Lithium Supply

Glencore’s purchase highlights renewed trading and procurement interest in lithium units as market sentiment improves. For Core, selling to a global commodity group provides a direct route to market and could strengthen confidence around future sales channels.

The broader Australian lithium market is also watching restart signals. Mineral Resources is considering a restart of its dormant Bald Hill mine after closing the operation in November 2024 because of low lithium prices. This suggests the sector is moving from survival mode toward selective restart evaluation.

However, producers are unlikely to restart capacity aggressively without confidence in sustained prices. Lithium markets remain exposed to battery demand, Chinese conversion margins, inventory cycles, and electric vehicle sales momentum. Therefore, the Finniss decision will be an important test of whether the current spodumene recovery is strong enough to support real supply response.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Glencore deal shows that lithium supply is moving back into option value territory. The key question is whether higher spodumene prices can hold long enough to justify mine restarts without recreating the oversupply that caused the last downturn.

BHP Reports Higher Copper Output in July-December, Driven by Strong Escondida Production

BHP

Escondida’s Growth Offsets Declines in Other Operations

BHP, one of the world’s largest mining companies, reported a 10% increase in copper production for July-December 2024, reaching 987,000 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by higher output from the Escondida mine in Chile, which hit a 10-year high. The strong Escondida performance offset declining production from Pampa Norte, South Australia, and the Antamina mine in Peru.

The company maintained its 2024-25 copper production guidance at 1.85 million-2.05 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as a key player in the global copper market.

Regional Copper Production Performance

Production at Escondida surged 22% year-on-year to 644,000 tonnes, benefiting from higher-grade ore feed and improved recovery rates. Output guidance for 2024-25 remains at 1.18 million-1.3 million tonnes, highlighting continued operational stability.

Conversely, Pampa Norte’s copper production declined by 9% to 126,000 tonnes, mainly due to the temporary care and maintenance of the Cerro Colorado mine. Meanwhile, Spence mine output fell slightly by 1%, but its production guidance remains between 240,000-270,000 tonnes.

In South Australia, copper production dropped by 6% to 145,000 tonnes due to a power outage in October caused by a severe lightning storm. However, operations rebounded, producing 30,000 tonnes in December. Consequently, BHP lowered its South Australian 2024-25 guidance from 310,000-340,000 tonnes to 300,000-325,000 tonnes.

The Antamina mine in Peru saw a 7% drop in production, totaling 67,000 tonnes, due to planned lower throughput and declining ore grades. Despite this, output guidance remains unchanged at 115,000-135,000 tonnes.

Copper Prices and Nickel Market Challenges

BHP’s average realised copper price increased by 9% to $3.99/lb, closely following the London Metal Exchange (LME) price surge of 12% to an average of $9,331/t for July-December.

Meanwhile, nickel prices fell, impacting BHP’s earnings. The company’s average realised nickel price dropped 12% to $16,386/t, aligning with the LME’s 14% drop in class 1 nickel prices to $16,401/t.

Nickel production plummeted 31% to 28,000 tonnes, as BHP suspended operations at its Western Australian nickel division in October. Given the uncertain market conditions, no production guidance has been issued for nickel in 2024-25.

Cost Guidance Updates and Future Outlook

BHP maintained its unit cost guidance at $1.30-$1.60/lb at Escondida and $2-$2.30/lb at Spence. However, due to increased costs in South Australia, the company revised its cost guidance there to the upper half of $1.30-$1.80/lb.

Despite operational challenges in South Australia and Pampa Norte, strong copper prices and Escondida’s production boost have positioned BHP for a resilient 2024-25 fiscal year. With global copper demand rising, the company remains a key player in supplying critical metals for the energy transition.

Global Refined Zinc Market Stays in Deficit as Demand Outpaces Production

Zinc

Global refined zinc market conditions remained tight in 2025 as consumption continued to exceed production, despite stronger mine output and higher refined metal supply. The deficit narrowed to 33,000t from 69,000t in 2024, but the market still failed to return to the 252,000t surplus recorded in 2023.

The global refined zinc market deficit shows that recovering production has not fully restored balance. Mine supply increased across several major producing regions, but refined demand also continued to grow, led by China and Europe. This kept the zinc value chain under pressure even as concentrate availability improved.

The global refined zinc market also reflected a shift in Chinese trade flows. China imported significantly more zinc contained in concentrates, while refined zinc imports dropped sharply. This suggests stronger reliance on domestic smelting and refining capacity rather than external refined metal supply.

Mine Supply Recovery Improves Concentrate Availability

Global zinc mine production rose by 5.4pc to 12.59mn t in 2025, supported by gains in Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. China remained the largest producer, with output rising 2.8pc to 4.07mn t.

Peru recorded one of the strongest increases, with zinc mine output rising 18.6pc to 1.51mn t. Australian output also increased by 2.4pc to 1.13mn t. These gains helped offset declines in the US and Kazakhstan, where production fell by 11.2pc and 5.2pc respectively.

Europe delivered a significant mine-side recovery, with output rising 20.1pc to 1.08mn t. Higher production at the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, new capacity in Russia, and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine supported the increase. This recovery improved regional concentrate supply after a difficult period for European zinc mining.

Refined Zinc Demand Keeps Market Balance Tight

World refined zinc output rose by 2.1pc to 13.83mn t in 2025, mainly supported by higher production in China and Europe. Chinese refined output increased by 6.1pc to 7mn t, while European production rose by 2.7pc to 2.17mn t.

Demand still slightly exceeded supply. Global refined zinc consumption rose by 1.9pc to 13.86mn t, with Chinese demand increasing by 1.9pc to 7.05mn t. European demand rose by 3.5pc to 1.98mn t, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength despite uneven industrial conditions.

China’s import structure highlights the changing zinc supply chain. Imports of zinc contained in concentrates rose by 29.8pc to 2.58mn t, while refined zinc imports fell by 51.1pc to 210,000t. This points to stronger concentrate pull from Chinese smelters and reduced dependence on imported refined zinc.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zinc market is no longer in a deep deficit, but it remains structurally tight enough to keep supply discipline important. The key signal is China’s rising concentrate imports, which show that smelting capacity and raw material access are becoming more important than refined metal trade alone.

BHP Copper Production Falls as Escondida Grades and Pampa Norte Weaken

BHP

BHP copper production fell in January-March as lower output from Escondida and Pampa Norte outweighed stronger results from South Australia and Antamina. The Australian mining group produced 476,800t of copper during the quarter, down 7.1% from a year earlier and 2.8% from the previous quarter.

BHP copper production remains within the company’s wider plan for the July 2025-June 2026 fiscal year. The miner kept its overall copper guidance unchanged at 1.9mn-2mn t, suggesting that first-quarter weakness is still manageable at group level.

The result shows the operational complexity behind global copper supply. Escondida remains a major copper asset, but lower feed grades reduced concentrate output despite higher concentrator throughput. Pampa Norte also weakened sharply, forcing BHP to lower guidance for the operation.

BHP copper production is strategically important because copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure. Any weakness from major producers matters in a market already focused on mine grades, project delays and supply-chain fragility.

Escondida and Pampa Norte Drive Quarterly Copper Decline

Escondida remained the central pressure point in BHP’s quarterly copper performance. Copper concentrate output at the Chilean operation fell by 14% on the year to 248,300t.

The decline was mainly caused by lower feed grades. Escondida’s average copper feed grade fell to 0.88% from 1.09% a year earlier, reducing concentrate production even though concentrator throughput rose by 4.1% to 34.2mn t.

This is an important signal for copper markets. Higher throughput cannot fully offset grade decline when ore quality deteriorates. Large copper mines increasingly need to process more material to maintain output, raising energy, water, equipment and cost pressure.

Escondida’s cathode production moved in the opposite direction. Copper cathode output rose by 22% to 54,900t because of improved sulphide leach performance.

That improvement helped soften the broader decline. However, concentrate weakness still mattered because Escondida is one of the world’s most important copper operations and a major contributor to BHP copper production.

BHP expects Escondida output for July 2025-June 2026 to reach the upper half of its 1.2mn-1.275mn t guidance range. This suggests that the company still expects stronger performance across the fiscal year despite the lower quarterly concentrate result.

Pampa Norte was a clearer negative. BHP produced 25,700t of copper concentrate and 18,900t of copper cathode at the mine, down 29% and 41% year on year, respectively.

Cathode output fell because of lower planned stacked copper grade. Concentrate output declined because of weaker recovery rates.

As a result, BHP lowered Pampa Norte production guidance to 210,000-220,000t from the previous range of 230,000-250,000t. This was the main guidance cut in the company’s copper portfolio.

Pampa Norte’s weaker outlook reinforces a broader industry issue. Copper mines are not only exposed to headline ore volumes. They are exposed to grades, recovery rates, leach performance, maintenance timing and processing efficiency.

South Australia and Antamina Offset Part of the Weakness

BHP’s South Australian operations provided partial support. Copper concentrate output rose by 22% to 27,500t, while cathode production slipped by 2.3% to 55,300t.

The improvement was supported by higher feed grades at Prominent Hill and higher mined and milled volumes at Olympic Dam. This helped balance weaker results from Chile.

BHP kept South Australian copper guidance unchanged at 310,000-340,000t. The stability of this guidance is important because South Australia remains a strategic copper growth region for the company.

Antamina also performed strongly. BHP’s copper output from the Peruvian operation rose by 43% to 44,100t, supported by better feed grades and improved operational performance.

The stronger Antamina result prompted BHP to lift production guidance to 150,000-160,000t from the previous 140,000-150,000t. This upgrade helped offset the Pampa Norte downgrade at portfolio level.

The mixed operating picture explains why BHP maintained total copper guidance. Escondida and Pampa Norte reduced quarterly output, but South Australia and Antamina provided enough support to keep the group’s broader plan intact.

BHP also completed the sale of its Carajas asset to CoreX Holdings on 2 April for $240mn, with up to $225mn in contingent payments. The sale reflects ongoing portfolio management as BHP concentrates capital on larger strategic assets.

For copper markets, the key message is that supply growth remains uneven. Stronger performance at one asset can offset weakness elsewhere, but global mine supply still depends on operational execution across a small number of large producers.

BHP copper production will therefore remain a closely watched indicator through the rest of the fiscal year. The market will focus on whether Escondida grades stabilise, Pampa Norte recovers, and South Australia and Antamina continue to outperform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BHP’s quarter shows that copper supply risk is increasingly operational, not only geological. Lower grades, weaker recoveries and leach performance can quickly offset throughput gains, keeping the market sensitive to every large-mine update.

EPA Supports Expansion of Woodie Manganese Mine in Western Australia

Consolidated Minerals

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Western Australia has endorsed Consolidated Minerals' plan to expand its Woodie manganese mine, aiming to extend its operational life until 2031. This decision follows an in-depth evaluation of the company’s proposal, which seeks to secure the mine's productivity for an additional decade.

Environmental and Economic Impact

As part of the expansion, Consolidated Minerals intends to clear 2,340 hectares of native vegetation to accommodate new mining pits, waste rock dumps, storage facilities, and additional mining infrastructure. Despite the significant development, the mine’s annual ore production and processing capacity is set to remain steady, with a maximum output of 1.6 million tons per year, consistent with past averages of 500,000 tons of ore processed annually between 2010 and 2020. It is important to note that the mine had previously faced a temporary closure between 2016 and 2017.

The proposal was initially submitted to the EPA in early 2020, and after careful consideration, the agency has now formally backed the expansion plan. The public has until 23 December to appeal the decision, ensuring transparency and community involvement in the approval process.

Broader Implications for Trade

The expansion comes at a crucial time as Australian manganese ore exports to China have experienced a significant decline, falling 48% year-on-year as of September due to disruptions like Cyclone Megan. The extended life of the Woodie Woodie mine could help stabilize supply chains and reinforce Australia's position in the global manganese market.

Sibanye PGM Production Rises in South Africa as US Output Falls

Sibanye

Sibanye PGM production improved in South Africa during the first quarter, but the company’s US mine output weakened because of lower production quality at East Boulder. The mixed result highlights the company’s uneven exposure across primary mining, recycling, zinc and lithium.

Sibanye PGM production in South Africa rose by 2% year on year to 383,241oz of 4E metals, covering platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold. Growth projects supported the increase and helped keep the company on track with its full-year guidance.

Sibanye PGM production in the US moved in the opposite direction. Output of 2E metals, covering platinum and palladium, fell by 5% to 68,386oz, with regular production expected to resume by the end of June.

The company maintained full-year guidance for both regions. South African operations are expected to produce 1.65mn-1.75mn oz, while US operations remain guided at 280,000-300,000oz.

South African Growth Offsets US Mine Weakness

Sibanye’s South African PGM operations remain the stronger side of the portfolio. The 2% increase in first-quarter output shows that ongoing growth projects are helping offset broader pressure across the PGM sector.

This matters because South Africa remains the world’s most important primary PGM supply base. Stable output from large producers supports automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies, chemicals, electronics and industrial applications.

The US Stillwater operations faced a weaker quarter. Lower production quality at East Boulder reduced output, although Sibanye expects normal production to return by the end of June.

The US decline is important because North American primary PGM supply is limited. Any disruption at Stillwater assets can affect regional availability of palladium and platinum, especially for customers seeking non-Russian and traceable supply.

Recycling helped offset the weaker US mine performance. Sibanye’s US recycled PGM output rose by 50% to 107,597oz, supported by better optimisation of material flows.

That increase reinforces the strategic value of secondary supply. PGM recycling can provide flexible metal units when mine output is uneven, while also supporting lower-carbon and circular supply chains.

Zinc Weakness and Keliber Progress Broaden the Portfolio Story

Sibanye’s Australian Century zinc operation produced 20,000t in the first quarter, down by 25,000t from a year earlier. Above-average rainfall reduced capacity and operating flexibility at the zinc operation.

The decline shows the weather sensitivity of tailings and zinc operations. Heavy rainfall can affect mining rates, processing efficiency, transport and operating continuity.

Century’s weaker output also matters because zinc remains important for galvanizing steel, infrastructure, construction, die casting and industrial manufacturing. Lower production from a major operation can tighten regional supply if weather disruption persists.

Meanwhile, Sibanye’s Keliber lithium project in Finland reached full completion during the first quarter. The first mining blast took place at the Syvajarvi mine in February.

Keliber gives Sibanye a strategic entry into Europe’s lithium supply chain. The project connects the company to battery materials demand and supports Europe’s effort to build more domestic critical mineral capacity.

Sibanye’s portfolio is therefore becoming more diversified. PGMs remain the core earnings and strategic base, but recycling, zinc and lithium all add exposure to different industrial cycles.

The first-quarter results show the benefits and risks of that structure. South African PGMs and US recycling improved, US mine output weakened, zinc suffered weather disruption, and lithium moved closer to future production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sibanye’s quarter shows why diversified metals exposure can protect a company from single-asset weakness, but also adds execution complexity. The strongest strategic signal is the rise in recycled PGM output, which could become increasingly valuable as customers seek secure and lower-carbon platinum and palladium supply.