Asia-Pacific Growth Slows as US-Iran Conflict Raises Energy and Trade Risks

ADB(The Asian Development Bank)

Asia-Pacific growth is expected to slow in 2026 and 2027 as the US-Iran conflict and renewed trade uncertainty weigh on the region’s economic outlook. The Asian Development Bank now forecasts regional growth of 5.1% in both years, down from 5.4% in 2025.

Asia-Pacific growth was stronger last year because companies front-loaded exports before US tariff increases, semiconductor demand stayed high, and private consumption remained firm. But the ADB said the Middle East conflict now presents the largest risk to the region.

Asia-Pacific growth remains supported by domestic demand, steady labour markets and public infrastructure spending. However, prolonged disruption could raise energy and food prices, tighten financial conditions and weaken industrial momentum across key manufacturing economies.

Energy Shock Threatens Inflation and Industrial Demand

The ADB based its latest outlook on assumptions finalised in early March, shortly after the war began. Those assumptions expected the conflict to stabilise early, but the bank said later evidence now points to a higher risk of prolonged disruption.

Regional inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 under the early-stabilisation scenario. If the conflict lasts through the third quarter, inflation could rise to 5.6% in 2026.

This matters for metals and manufacturing because Asia remains central to global supply chains for steel, aluminium, copper products, batteries, semiconductors, electronics and automotive components. Higher energy costs could pressure margins, slow investment and reduce demand for industrial raw materials.

Trade uncertainty adds another risk. Export front-loading helped 2025 growth, but that support is fading as manufacturers adjust to tariffs, weaker global trade and shifting procurement strategies.

China, India and Asean Face Uneven Growth Paths

China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, from 5% last year. Subdued private consumption, property market weakness and slower export expansion are expected to weigh on activity.

The Chinese slowdown remains important for global metals markets. China is the largest consumer of many industrial and battery metals, so weaker growth can quickly affect copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, rare earths and lithium demand expectations.

India’s growth is forecast to fall to 6.9% this year from 7.6% last year, before recovering to 7.3% in 2027. Resilient domestic consumption, recent trade agreements and structural reforms are expected to support the rebound.

Asean growth is projected at 4.6% in both 2026 and 2027, slightly below 4.8% in 2025. Infrastructure spending and domestic demand should provide stability, but weaker exports and fading front-loading effects could limit manufacturing momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ADB forecast shows that Asia’s growth engine is still running, but energy security and trade risk are becoming stronger constraints. For metals markets, the key issue is whether infrastructure spending can offset weaker exports and higher industrial costs.

China’s Gotion Predicts LFP Batteries Will Dominate Global EV Market

Gotion High-Tech

Chinese battery producer Gotion High-Tech forecasts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) batteries will claim up to 70% of the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market in the next 2-5 years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore, Gotion’s Asia-Pacific president Cheng Qian highlighted the rising prominence of LFP chemistry, particularly in affordable EVs and energy storage systems.

The Rise of LFP Batteries

Qian projected that LFP batteries will dominate not only the global EV market but also the entire energy storage system (ESS) sector, exceeding even the IEA’s 80% forecast. He attributed this growth to advancements in LFP battery range and faster charging times, catering to the needs of everyday EV consumers. In contrast, nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries are expected to remain essential only for high-performance and long-range EVs.

This shift has placed pressure on the nickel market, as manufacturers pivot to cost-efficient LFP solutions. South Korean giants such as Samsung SDI and SK On are preparing to mass-produce LFP batteries by 2026. Meanwhile, LG Energy Solution (LGES) has committed to supplying 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division Ampere, underscoring Europe’s growing focus on LFP technology.

Two-Wheeler EV Transition in Asia-Pacific

The two-wheeler EV market, particularly in Asia-Pacific, is also expected to transition from NCM to LFP batteries. India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are leading this shift due to cost concerns and government initiatives.

• India: Achieved record EV sales in FY2023-24, with two-wheeler EV sales rising 30% year-on-year to 944,126 units.
• Indonesia: Aims for 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, supported by a $458 million subsidy program launched in March 2023.
• Philippines: Targets a 50% electric motorcycle and tricycle share by 2030, with cost efficiency driving adoption.

A Global Shift in Battery Technology

With its affordability and sustainability, LFP battery technology is reshaping the global EV landscape, especially in cost-sensitive markets. Companies like Gotion, LGES, and Samsung SDI are at the forefront of this transformation, signaling a shift towards accessible and efficient energy solutions.

Vestas Sees 36% Surge in Turbine Orders Driven by Offshore Wind Momentum

Vestas

Offshore wind demand fuels rebound as average turbine selling price rises

Vestas expands service backlog and returns to profitability in Q1 2025

Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas recorded a 36% year-on-year increase in turbine orders during the first quarter of 2025, reaching a total of 3.1GW. The focus keyphrase "Vestas turbine orders" reflects a clear resurgence in wind sector activity, particularly within offshore wind markets.

Offshore turbines accounted for 1.5GW of the new orders, offsetting a decline in onshore demand. Notably, Vestas secured a 1GW order for the Nordlicht 1 offshore wind farm in Germany, highlighting Europe’s continued leadership in offshore renewables.  Meanwhile, U.S. demand remained subdued, with orders falling from 1.1GW to 189MW due to policy uncertainty.

Turbine deliveries also rose sharply, up 38% year-on-year to 2.4GW, with a notable increase in offshore volumes. The average selling price improved to €1.24mn/MWh from €1.18mn, driven by the growing share of offshore installations, which tend to command higher margins.

Service operations also expanded. The value of Vestas’ service backlog rose to €37bn, with its global service portfolio growing to 157GW. Regionally, the firm added 2GW in EMEA, 5GW in the Americas, and 1GW in Asia-Pacific, reflecting robust multi-regional engagement.

Financially, Vestas returned to profitability, posting a €5mn gain versus a €75mn loss a year earlier. Quarterly revenue jumped 29% to nearly €3.5bn, showcasing operational recovery and pricing power in a competitive market. However, its 27GW project portfolio still awaits order conversions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vestas’ offshore pivot appears to be paying off, both in order volume and financial performance. As global policy incentives around offshore wind accelerate, Vestas is strategically positioned to dominate new installations—especially in Europe and emerging Asia-Pacific markets.

Gotion Foresees Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Batteries Dominating Global EV Market

In a significant shift for the electric vehicle (EV) industry, Gotion, a leading Chinese battery manufacturer, predicts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) battery chemistries will dominate the global EV battery market within the next two to five years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore on August 21, Gotion's Asia-Pacific president, Cheng Qian, projected that these battery types could account for nearly 70 percent of the global market share, with the remainder being held by nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries.

Qian emphasized that LFP battery technology is poised to take over the entire energy storage system sector, surpassing even the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of 80 percent dominance. He attributed this trend to advancements in LFP battery range and the increasing demand for faster charging capabilities among EV consumers. NCM batteries, he noted, would be relegated to use in high-performance and ultra-long-range vehicles.

The transition has already begun to impact the nickel market and is gaining momentum among South Korean battery manufacturers. These companies are anticipating strong demand for more affordable EVs, driven by the cost-effectiveness of LFP batteries. Samsung SDI and SK On, for instance, are preparing to launch mass production of LFP batteries by 2026.

Adding to this momentum, LG Energy Solution (LGES) recently secured a contract to supply 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division, Ampere, from its largest battery plant in Europe for the period 2025-2030. LGES is also planning to shift to LFP batteries for a U.S. energy storage project after initially supplying NCM batteries.

Expansion into Two-Wheeler Market

Gotion also predicts a significant shift toward LFP and LMFP batteries in the global two-wheeler EV market, which has been predominantly powered by NCM batteries. Cost reductions will be crucial for major two-wheeler markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, and Thailand, Qian noted.

India, which experienced a 30 percent surge in two-wheeler EV sales during its fiscal year 2023-24, reaching a record high of 944,126 units, is poised for further growth. Indonesia is similarly ambitious, aiming to deploy 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, escalating to 13 million by 2030. The nation has introduced a $458 million subsidy program to incentivize electric motorcycle adoption.

The Philippines has also outlined its EV roadmap, emphasizing the lower upfront costs of electric tricycles and motorcycles as key drivers for EV adoption. The country aims to achieve a 50 percent share of electric motorcycles and tricycles by 2030, increasing to 60 percent by 2040.

BIR Conference Bangkok Recycling Industry signals Asia’s circular shift

2025 BIR(Bureau of International Recycling)

The BIR(Bureau of International Recycling) Conference Bangkok Recycling Industry gathered global stakeholders across the value chain. The forum covered ferrous, non-ferrous, and specialty metals in depth. The BIR Conference Bangkok Recycling Industry highlighted circular economy execution, not slogans. Therefore, participants focused on infrastructure, technology, and market standards. Meanwhile, BIR’s scale—1.5 million professionals and USD 160 billion—framed the agenda.

The BIR Conference Bangkok Recycling Industry underscored Asia-Pacific’s accelerating demand. Hosting in Bangkok reflected trade gravity tilting toward Asian hubs. As a result, discussions centered on capacity build-out and logistics reliability. Attendees examined traceability, quality assurance, and ESG disclosure. Moreover, members emphasized data for financing and cross-border compliance.

2025 BIR(Bureau of International Recycling)

Ferrous and non-ferrous flows anchor the circular backbone

Ferrous scrap now supplies over 30% of global steel output. EAF adoption increases scrap intensity and resilience. Therefore, ferrous scrap became a strategic raw material. Asia remains the largest import market for ferrous scrap. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan anchor steady tonnage. However, India’s fast-rising demand drew strong attention this year.

Non-ferrous recycling accelerates stainless steel’s circular economy. Over 70% of stainless production uses recycled feedstock today. Consequently, 300-series stainless scrap commands a nickel-driven premium. Copper, aluminum, and zinc recycling rates keep climbing. Meanwhile, EV batteries and e-waste create new metal pools. Processors target dismantling, black-mass recovery, and closed-loop contracts. As a result, service models expand beyond commodity trading.

2025 BIR(Bureau of International Recycling)

Specialty metals scale: Titanium and Nickel Superalloys

Specialty metals advanced from niche to priority. Titanium scrap offsets costly primary sponge and ingot. Proper sorting enables aircraft, reactor, and implant routes. Clean grades often trade at several thousand dollars per ton. Therefore, certification and segregation matter for aerospace and medical uses.

Nickel-based superalloy scrap rose with aerospace growth. Inconel and Hastelloy streams typically exceed 50% nickel. Refiners upgrade these into new superalloy melts. Moreover, chromium, molybdenum, and cobalt increase strategic value. As a result, secure collection and refining capacity became focal. Asia is emerging as the center for scale and skills.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BIR Bangkok confirmed recycling as core supply-chain strategy. Expect capital to target high-purity sorting, verified traceability, and melt capacity. Asian hubs that certify quality fastest will capture premium flows.

Defense & Security 2025 turns Bangkok into Asia’s defense crossroads

Defense & Security 2025

Defense & Security 2025 opens in Bangkok with record scale and deep strategic signaling. Defense & Security 2025 hosts 580 companies, 28 national pavilions, and 26,000 visitors. Defense & Security 2025 runs 10–13 November at IMPACT under Thailand’s defense ministry.

China’s strategic push shapes the exhibition’s competitive landscape. Thailand has fielded Chinese VT-4 tanks, VN-1 IFVs, drones, and QBZ-195T rifles. Thailand has in recent years purchased more Chinese arms by value than US systems. Therefore, the halls highlight Chinese offerings across air, land, and maritime domains. Meanwhile, invited delegations exceed 350 senior officials from 35 countries.

Scale and content reinforce the show’s Asia-Pacific weight. Exhibits span missiles, tanks, UAVs, ships, satellites, and secure comms. Exhibitors also show electronic warfare, cyber, and counter-terror systems. As a result, the event functions as a tri-service marketplace with policy dialogue. Twenty seminars and conferences convene industry and government experts.

Defense & Security 2025, China Sector

China’s export expansion meets Thailand’s modernization

China’s export pattern concentrates on Asia and Oceania buyers. Asia-Oceania take 77% of Chinese arms exports, with Africa at 14%. Pakistan accounts for 63% of Chinese exports, followed by Bangladesh and Thailand. Consequently, regional procurement pipelines increasingly feature Chinese platforms and components.

Thailand’s modernization plan advances across multiple suppliers. The cabinet approved a phased purchase of 12 Gripen E/F jets over a decade. The estimated cost is 60 billion baht for the Gripen program. Thailand’s 2024 defense budget totals 198.3 billion baht, up 2% year on year. Therefore, procurement mixes US Strykers, Chinese VN-1s, and Israeli UAVs.

ASEAN’s rearmament cycle accelerates in parallel. Indonesia’s defense budget reached $13.2 billion in 2023. Singapore’s spending reached $13.4 billion in 2023 after a 10% rise. Singapore is acquiring eight F-35B fighters to expand airpower. Vietnam is upgrading naval capabilities to protect maritime claims.

Defense & Security 2025

Global spending pledges and exporter dynamics reframe supply chains

NATO members set a higher ambition at the June 2025 summit. Members committed to invest 5% of GDP in defense. This marks a major uplift from the earlier 2% benchmark. As a result, delivery slots, components, and workforce will tighten globally.

Exporter shares define competitive pressures through 2020–24. The United States held 43% of global arms exports. France and Russia followed in second and third positions. China accounted for 5.9% and ranked fourth. Therefore, Chinese vendors face strong US and European competition in premium segments.

Defense & Security 2025 serves more than a sales floor. Organizers prioritize invited government buyers and curated agendas. Discussions focus on autonomy, AI ISR, resilient logistics, and cyber. Exhibitors pitch lifecycle packages with training and local sustainment. Co-production, MRO, and data rights feature in many deal rooms.

The Metalnomist Commentary 

Bangkok’s show captures a decisive shift toward diversified sourcing and localization. Expect tougher offset terms, co-development, and data-centric sustainment as ASEAN hedges suppliers. Financing creativity will separate winners from followers in the next procurement wave.

Enovix Expands into Asia with Strategic South Korea Acquisition

Enovix

US-based battery technology company Enovix has announced the acquisition of a battery cell manufacturing facility in South Korea.

The move marks a strategic expansion aimed at addressing rising demand from the defense sector, a key target market for advanced energy storage solutions. The facility was acquired from SolarEdge, an Israeli energy technology firm. Though the financial terms remain undisclosed, the acquisition includes both the physical plant and essential development and production equipment.

Silicon-Anode Battery Production to Scale Up

Enovix specializes in silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries, known for higher energy density and longer life cycles than traditional graphite-based cells. With this new manufacturing footprint in Asia, the company aims to accelerate production to meet growing military and industrial needs. The South Korean facility will allow Enovix to scale its output more efficiently and closer to global clients in Asia-Pacific, enhancing both delivery timelines and cost efficiency. This acquisition reflects a broader trend of American tech firms diversifying production locations amid geopolitical and supply chain pressures.

Broader Market Implications for Defense and Energy Storage

The defense industry has increasingly turned to high-performance lithium-ion batteries to power advanced systems, from drones to tactical communications. Meanwhile, South Korea remains a global battery production hub, home to major players like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI. Enovix’s entry into this ecosystem may also signal potential partnerships or talent acquisitions in one of the world’s most competitive battery markets. By localizing part of its manufacturing, Enovix not only enhances capacity but also strengthens its resilience against future disruptions in the US-China technology corridor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Enovix’s move into South Korea highlights a strategic pivot toward regionalized production to support defense-grade lithium-ion batteries. As demand spikes for high-energy-density storage solutions, this acquisition strengthens the company’s hand in a competitive and geopolitically sensitive industry. For metals suppliers and cell integrators, it also signals growing urgency to align with agile, dual-continent battery players.

Crown warns aluminum can supply will tighten through 2025

Crown Holdings

Crown says aluminum can supply will tighten through late 2025 as demand outpaces capacity. The aluminum can supply outlook reflects stronger North American and European orders despite Asian tariff headwinds. As a result, Crown will boost efficiency and expand plants to protect aluminum can supply.

Demand growth offsets Asia weakness

Crown reports second-quarter growth across key end markets. North American beverage can shipments rose 1pc from the first quarter. European beverage can volumes increased 7pc, while North American food cans gained 5pc. However, Asia-Pacific volumes declined on tariff-driven weakness. Crown notes tariffs did not hit its Americas or European markets.

Capacity additions in Brazil and southern Europe

Crown will add a third line at Ponta Grossa, Brazil. The project lifts capacity to 3.6bn cans a year from 2.4bn. Commercial production is targeted for the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Crown is modernizing Korinthos, Greece. It will also add a new line at a southern Europe site to be named. These moves aim to relieve regional tightness and cut logistics bottlenecks.

Stronger can demand supports upstream aluminum coil and coating suppliers. Therefore, brand owners should secure 2025-2026 volumes early. Crown’s efficiency push and brownfield upgrades should help balance regional imbalances over time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Crown’s expansion signals sustained beverage packaging growth despite Asian softness. Expect contract pricing to favor reliable converters until new lines start. Watch Brazil and Greece timelines closely; any slippage could amplify near-term tightness.

GE Aerospace to Invest $1 Billion in Global MRO Expansion

GE Aerospace, a leading global aircraft engine manufacturer, is set to embark on a significant investment initiative to expand its Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities worldwide, including a notable development in Seoul. GE Aerospace plans to inject over $1 billion into its global MRO and aircraft engine component repair operations over the next five years.

This investment aims to bolster GE Aerospace’s capabilities in response to the growth of both narrowbody and widebody aircraft markets. The funds will be directed towards establishing additional engine test cells and acquiring advanced equipment, which will enhance maintenance efficiencies. The initiative also includes the adoption of cutting-edge technologies to improve inspection processes, thereby reducing aircraft engine maintenance times and expanding the repair capabilities of its service centers.

A significant portion of this investment will be allocated to meet the rising demand for the CFM LEAP engine. With over 3,300 aircraft currently equipped with LEAP engines, the model continues to gain market traction, supported by a backlog exceeding 10,000 units. This trend indicates a substantial increase in the global fleet of commercial aircraft.

The immediate focus for this year includes a substantial investment in the development of a new Service Technology Acceleration Center (STAC) near Cincinnati, Ohio. Scheduled to open in September 2024, the STAC will facilitate the rapid detection of emerging issues and accelerate the implementation of innovative service systems, such as advanced inspection technologies, aimed at reducing aircraft downtime.

Globally, GE Aerospace will allocate $250 million this year to expand its MRO facilities, invest in new equipment and tooling, and enhance safety measures. Investment plans include:

▶ United States : $65 million (Cincinnati, Ohio; McAllen, Texas; Lafayette, Indiana; Dallas, Texas; Winfield, Kansas)

▶ South America : $55 million (Petropolis, Brazil)

▶ Europe and the Middle East : $60 million (Budapest, Hungary; Prestwick, Scotland; London, UK; Cardiff, Wales; Wroclaw, Poland; Doha, Qatar; Dubai, UAE)

▶ Asia-Pacific : $45 million (Singapore; Taipei, Taiwan; Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Seoul, South Korea)

Russell Stokes, CEO of GE Aerospace’s Commercial Engines and Services division, commented, “In light of the growing demand for air travel, GE Aerospace is investing in capabilities and efficiencies needed to maintain the safety and reliability of our customers' aircraft. This investment will further enhance our long-standing commitment to safety, quality, and timely delivery, benefiting both our customers and their passengers.”

Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment backs Australia’s flow battery ambitions

Queensland Vanadium Plant

Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment signals a stronger push into long duration energy storage in Australia. The state government has committed A$10mn to Vecco’s Julia Creek mine and Townsville vanadium electrolyte plant. As a result, the Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment aims to anchor a domestic supply chain from ore to vanadium redox flow batteries.

Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment will support Australia’s first commercial scale electrolyte facility in Townsville. Vecco plans to build a 300 MWh per year plant starting in 2026, with operations targeted for 2028. This will scale up from its existing 35 MWh per year Townsville unit, which already produces vanadium electrolyte. Therefore, Vecco can leverage operational experience as it ramps to larger industrial volumes.

Julia Creek mine links vanadium ore to battery electrolyte

The Julia Creek mine forms the resource backbone of the Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment. Vecco plans to open the 8,700 t per year vanadium pentoxide operation in 2027. The mine will supply feedstock directly to the larger Townsville electrolyte plant, closing the loop between mining and chemicals.

This integrated structure reduces reliance on imported vanadium intermediates and marketing risk. Meanwhile, it supports Australia’s broader critical minerals strategy focused on value added processing, not just ore exports. Over the life of the project, Vecco aims to position Julia Creek as a stable source for flow battery grade vanadium.

Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment also fits into a wider end to end supply chain vision. Vecco, Sumitomo Electric and Idemitsu Australia signed a 2024 agreement to develop and sell vanadium redox flow batteries. Therefore, vanadium units from Julia Creek could ultimately flow into installed energy storage systems across Australia.

Building a regional hub for vanadium redox flow batteries

Queensland is using the Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment to establish Townsville as a vanadium processing hub. Since 2021, the state has been developing a shared use vanadium processing facility to support smaller miners. This shared infrastructure should lower entry barriers and encourage more junior projects to progress.

At the same time, the Townsville electrolyte plant will target utility and industrial scale storage markets. Vanadium redox flow batteries offer long cycle life and deep discharge, which suit grid firming and renewable integration. However, they require secure supplies of high purity vanadium electrolyte to remain competitive with lithium ion systems.

Queensland’s support for Vecco, alongside Japanese partners, strengthens cross border industrial ties. It also diversifies vanadium production away from traditional suppliers in China, Russia and South Africa. As a result, the Queensland vanadium electrolyte plant investment could reshape regional vanadium trade and pricing dynamics over time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This move shows how relatively modest public capital can unlock strategic value in long duration storage supply chains. By backing integrated mining and electrolyte production, Queensland improves the bankability of vanadium redox flow projects and attracts Japanese technology partners. Market participants should watch how fast offtake and project pipelines grow, as this will determine whether Townsville becomes a genuine Asia Pacific hub for vanadium battery materials.

Alaska LNG Gains Momentum Through Two-Phase Development

Alaska LNG

Glenfarne’s Phased Approach Reduces Risks for Alaska LNG

Alaska LNG’s two-phase financing strategy is designed to reduce investment risks and improve project viability. Glenfarne Energy Transition, the lead developer with a 75% stake, plans to separate the $44bn project into two independent stages. The first stage includes a North Slope gas treatment plant and a 765-mile pipeline delivering gas to Anchorage, where shortages are expected by 2027.

By structuring the project with separate final investment decisions (FIDs), Glenfarne avoids the pitfalls of the 2016 attempt by ExxonMobil, BP, and ConocoPhillips, which collapsed due to high upfront risks. Glenfarne’s phased approach ensures that each stage is financially viable and attractive to both creditors and offtakers.

Domestic Supply Security and LNG Export Potential

The initial phase secures gas supply for Alaska’s largest population center while laying the foundation for LNG exports. The 3.5bn ft³/d pipeline would transport sufficient gas to meet domestic needs and supply the future liquefaction facility in Nikiski.

If developed, the second phase would add compression capacity, a 42-mile connector pipeline, and a 20mn t/yr LNG terminal. Glenfarne has already received regulatory approval from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and export authorizations from the Department of Energy, positioning the project for international market entry.

Strong International Interest in Alaska LNG Volumes

Asian buyers are showing strong demand for Alaska LNG, signaling export market viability. In June, Glenfarne announced receiving more than $115bn worth of bids from over 50 companies. Taiwan’s CPC signed a preliminary deal in March, while the Philippines and Thailand have expressed interest in future volumes.

Geopolitical dynamics also play a role, as former US President Donald Trump has urged Asian allies to invest in Alaska LNG in exchange for trade concessions. These developments highlight the project’s potential to strengthen US energy ties in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alaska LNG’s revival through Glenfarne’s phased financing marks a strategic shift in US LNG project development. By ensuring domestic gas security while targeting Asian demand, the project balances local needs with global energy ambitions. However, execution risks remain high, especially in financing and geopolitical stability, which will determine whether Alaska LNG becomes a cornerstone of US energy exports.

AI Drives ICT and Manufacturing Growth in Asia-Pacific: A Look at South Korea and Taiwan

TSMC

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, particularly in the United States, is significantly shaping the electronics and related manufacturing sectors in South Korea and Taiwan. Government data from both countries highlights the importance of AI and its impact on semiconductors, electronics, and other ICT-related exports.

In South Korea, AI demand is offsetting declines in exports to China, showcasing the country's leading role in the global tech supply chain. The latest figures from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (Motie) show a 14.8% increase in ICT exports for November, totaling over $20 billion for the fourth consecutive month. Semiconductors, computers, and peripherals were the major drivers of this growth. Despite this, year-on-year growth showed signs of slowing, dipping from 22% in October to 14.8%. This slowdown was partly attributed to a 2.2% drop in exports to China and Hong Kong, primarily due to waning demand for mobile phones and displays.

Notably, South Korea's semiconductor exports skyrocketed, with a 30.3% rise year-on-year, reaching $12.5 billion. Exports to the United States surged by nearly 110%, driven by the increasing need for server equipment and data centers fueled by AI systems. These advancements in AI are rapidly driving the need for upgraded infrastructure, such as high-performance servers and data centers, essential for processing the vast amounts of data generated by AI algorithms.

South Korea’s semiconductor industry is globally influential, with giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the forefront, along with smaller players such as DB HiTek and Hana Micron. As the world’s second-largest semiconductor supplier, South Korea is poised to benefit as AI continues to push demand for microchips and computing hardware to new heights.

Taiwan's Semiconductor Boom Fuels AI and Tech Growth

In Taiwan, the demand for semiconductors to support AI infrastructure is also expanding rapidly. Taiwan holds a dominant position in global semiconductor production, accounting for more than 60% of worldwide manufacturing and nearly 90% of advanced semiconductor output. This dominance is largely due to the presence of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry, along with companies like MediaTek, ASE Technology Holdings, and United Microelectronics Corp (UMC).

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs reports a 26.6% year-on-year increase in equipment purchases for the manufacturing sector in Q3, amounting to 462.4 billion New Taiwan Dollars (about $14.2 billion). The surge was largely driven by semiconductor factories expanding to meet the needs of emerging technologies, including AI, high-performance computing, and cloud services. The country's semiconductor production continues to boom, fueling revenue growth in both electronics and information technology industries.

The semiconductor-driven demand for AI technologies in Taiwan is evident, with a significant 46.4% increase in purchases of fixed assets in the electronic components sector, which accounts for 65.1% of total manufacturing purchases. This increase reflects the ongoing investments in AI-related equipment, including the expansion of wafer foundries, packaging, testing, and memory factories. Meanwhile, the machinery and equipment sector also reported a 26.6% rise in year-on-year purchases, largely driven by semiconductor companies' capital expenditures for new factory expansions and production lines.

Despite these gains, other sectors like chemical materials and fertilizers saw a decline in equipment purchases, highlighting the uneven impact of AI across different industries.

As Taiwan continues to be a hub for semiconductor production, the country is expected to see sustained investments in high-end production capacity and the introduction of low-carbon, automated equipment. This is set to drive further advancements in AI technologies and their applications, solidifying Taiwan's position as a key player in the global tech landscape.

China's Rising Titanium Sponge Export and the Future of Aerospace Supply Chains

China's Titanium Sponge

A Surplus That Could Fill a Global Gap

With certified titanium sponge supplies projected to hit a deficit in the next four years, China’s output capabilities become increasingly relevant. While traditional producers like Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan near full capacity, major aerospace companies such as Airbus and Safran are considering alternatives to mitigate supply risks. China produced 218,000 tons of titanium sponge in 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of production growth, largely due to domestic oversupply, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

However, introducing Chinese sponge to critical applications is no simple task. Certification timelines for standard quality (SQ) and premium quality (PQ) sponge can extend from three to over five years. The long lead time is essential for parts such as disks and blades in commercial aero engines, where safety standards demand rigorous checks for oxygen and nitrogen contamination. “China’s significant production capabilities are promising, but certification processes and qualification timelines are a major barrier,” said Marty Pike, vice president of global commercial strategy at U.S. metals producer ATI, at a recent titanium industry event in Texas.

Geopolitical Concerns and Legislative Guardrails

While Airbus has signaled openness to exploring Chinese titanium sponge, the decision ultimately lies with engine manufacturers. Other industry leaders, however, cite concerns over potential sanctions that may result from China’s involvement, given rising Asia-Pacific tensions. Any U.S. or EU industries reliant on Chinese titanium sponge could face supply chain vulnerabilities if diplomatic relations falter.

U.S. imports of Chinese titanium sponge are rising despite tariffs, driven by cost pressures. The average price for Chinese imports to the U.S. is notably lower than that from Japan, even after duties, offering an attractive price point. A recent bill, the Securing America’s Titanium Act, seeks to balance this by waiving the standard 15% tariff on titanium sponge but maintaining a 25% tariff on Chinese imports. The proposed legislation also aims to monitor foreign influence over the U.S. supply chain, underscoring the careful stance lawmakers are taking toward titanium imports.

EU and Future Outlook

Europe's titanium sponge import dynamics are less transparent due to limited reporting and autonomous tariff suspensions. Unlike the U.S., EU markets face no duty on imports, making it an attractive market for Chinese exporters. While the aerospace sector remains cautious, other industries such as medical and industrial may more readily accept Chinese sponge as they seek cost-effective solutions.

As the titanium market evolves, balancing supply demands, certification processes, and geopolitical risks will shape the future of titanium sponge in aerospace, with China poised as a powerful, if complex, player in the unfolding narrative.

Lithium Market Growth Could Reach 25pc in 2026 as Battery Storage Demand Surges

SQM BESS

Lithium market growth could reach 25pc in 2026 as stronger battery energy storage demand combines with steady electric vehicle consumption, according to Chilean producer SQM. The outlook suggests that the lithium market is entering a new demand phase led not only by EVs, but also by large-scale stationary storage.

SQM raised its 2026 production guidance to 260,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent, up from 230,000t in 2025. The company also expects sales to rise by 10pc this year, supported by strong Asia-Pacific demand and full-capacity operations at its Atacama assets.

Lithium market growth is also improving short-term pricing expectations. SQM expects first-quarter sales to rise by more than 15pc from the same period in 2025, which would set a record for January-March sales. The company also expects prices to be substantially higher than the $10/kg level recorded in the fourth quarter.

Battery Storage Demand Changes the Lithium Growth Model

Battery energy storage is becoming a stronger driver of lithium demand. This matters because Bess demand can grow independently of passenger EV cycles, especially as grids add more renewable power and require storage for stability.

SQM’s outlook shows that lithium producers are increasingly watching storage demand alongside EV sales. EV consumption remains steady, but storage growth can absorb additional lithium carbonate equivalent volumes and tighten the market faster than expected.

The company has already secured contracts covering 80pc of its 2026 LCE volumes. That leaves 20pc, or around 52,000t, available for spot market sales. This structure gives SQM exposure to higher prices if demand remains strong, while also protecting much of its volume through contract coverage.

SQM Output Expansion Strengthens Chile’s Lithium Position

SQM produced 233,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025, up 14pc from the previous year. A record fourth quarter drove the result, with NovaAndino Litio producing 66,000t LCE, up 52pc from the same period in 2024.

NovaAndino Litio is the new name of SQM’s Chilean lithium subsidiary following its merger with Codelco. The rebrand signals the growing importance of Chile’s state-linked lithium strategy and the central role of the Atacama operations in global supply.

SQM’s Australian operations also continued to progress. Its attributable production from the Mt. Holland extraction site reached 156,400t of lithium concentrate in 2025, while the Kwinana hydroxide refinery produced 1,600t LCE during its ramp-up phase. These assets give SQM a broader lithium platform across both brine and hard-rock supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SQM’s forecast shows that lithium demand is becoming more diversified and less dependent on EVs alone. If battery storage continues to outperform expectations, producers with flexible sales exposure and reliable capacity could regain pricing power faster than the market expected.

Elkem 1Q Earnings 2025 Rise on Silicones and Carbon Sales, Despite Silicon Division Weakness

Elkem

Strong Silicones and Carbon Solutions Offset Declines in Silicon Products

Elkem 1Q earnings 2025 rose by 25% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the company’s silicones and carbon solutions divisions. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) totaled NKr898 million ($86 million), despite headwinds in global trade and energy markets. However, the silicon products division—which includes ferro-silicon and silicon metal—recorded a sharp decline due to production interruptions and weak demand.

Silicon Division Faces Headwinds from Tariffs and Market Disruptions

The silicon division’s EBITDA fell 28% to NKr489 million, as power curtailments in Iceland, maintenance in Norway, and uncertainty around U.S. tariffs weighed on performance. Sales volumes dropped 9% year-on-year to 106,000t. Elkem noted that tariffs announced on 2 April by the U.S. impacted silicon and ferro-silicon, despite exemptions for many other ferro-alloys. The firm warned that indirect effects of trade disputes—like weakened global demand—could continue to erode margins.

Silicones Division Up for Sale After Strong Performance

Elkem plans to divest its silicones division following a 2024 strategic review. Despite being listed as "discontinued operations," the division’s Q1 2025 sales surged 34% to 106,000t, with strength in the Asia-Pacific region. Operating income rose 16% to NKr3.9 billion, even as prices softened. Meanwhile, carbon solutions held steady with 64,000t in volume and a 4% EBITDA gain, supported by stronger sales in Brazil and specialty carbon products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Elkem 1Q earnings 2025 reveal a business navigating complex trade pressures while optimizing its portfolio. Strategic geographic diversification and a timely silicones divestment may help Elkem weather potential volatility in its core silicon segment.

Muchai Mining Kenya Signs Long-Term Manganese Ore Supply Deal with Baosteel

Baosteel

Kenya’s Kilifi plant to supply Baowu subsidiary with up to 20,000 wmt/month of manganese ore by 2026.

Muchai Mining Kenya (MMK), a subsidiary of Marula Mining, has secured a major supply contract with Baosteel Resources South Africa, part of the Baowu Special Steel group. The agreement grants Baosteel exclusive rights to market MMK’s manganese ore from the Kilifi processing plant in Kenya’s Tezo area.

The Kilifi plant currently produces around 120,000 tonnes per year of manganese ore. The new contract began on 1 March 2025 and will run for an initial five-year term. The first delivery, totaling 5,000 tonnes of 35–40% grade ore, is scheduled for completion by 30 April 2025.

Kenyan Manganese Enters Chinese Steel Supply Chain

From May 2025, MMK will supply a minimum of 10,000 tonnes per month for 12 months. This volume will increase to approximately 15,000 wet metric tonnes (wmt) per month in April 2026, then rise further to 20,000 wmt/month from May 2026 for a full year.

Each shipment will be structured under independent sale and purchase contracts, and pricing will follow cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) China terms, adjusted for ore grade and quality.

This agreement strengthens China's manganese ore supply chain amid growing demand from its specialty steel sector, while offering MMK a stable export route backed by a globally recognized partner.

Strategic Win for Kenya’s Mining Sector

The deal marks a significant step for Kenya’s emerging mineral economy, positioning Kilifi as a key node in the global manganese trade. With rising steel demand and the strategic role of manganese in battery and alloy production, MMK’s partnership with Baosteel highlights the growing integration of African mining assets into the Asia-Pacific metals ecosystem.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge Exports Set to Rise as OEMs Diversify Supply

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge exports are expected to rise over the next five years as western aerospace supply chains look for additional qualified raw material sources. Chinese producer Chaoyang Jinda Titanium expects international shipments of qualified aerospace-grade sponge to increase from around 1,000t this year to 10,000t by 2030.

The shift reflects a deeper change in the aerospace titanium supply chain. Western aircraft manufacturers and ingot melters are trying to reduce exposure to Russian supply, while aircraft build rates are expected to rise from 2027.

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge is therefore moving from a limited export niche into a potential supply-chain balancing tool. However, tariffs, qualification risk and geopolitical uncertainty will limit how quickly US and European buyers adopt Chinese material.

The opportunity is strongest in standard-quality structural titanium grades. Premium-quality sponge for engine, landing-gear and other critical applications is likely to remain controlled by established suppliers with long qualification histories.

Western Aerospace Buyers Face a Supply-Diversification Challenge

Aerospace-grade sponge demand is expected to recover from 2027 after a weaker 2026 caused by inventory normalisation. Mills have been reducing stocks of semi-finished titanium parts and raw materials, but aircraft production plans point to higher requirements later in the decade.

The timing is important. Airbus and Boeing both carry long aircraft backlogs, creating a decade of production visibility. This forces mills and original equipment manufacturers to look beyond short-term demand swings and secure raw material sources for future build-rate increases.

Western OEMs also continue to reassess Russian titanium exposure. If procurement from Russia declines, the market will need alternative aerospace-qualified sponge to fill the gap. Japan’s Toho Titanium and Osaka Titanium are expanding, while China is preparing to supply more qualified material.

Global approved aerospace-grade sponge supply excluding Russian products is expected to rise from about 74,000t this year to around 91,000t by 2030. Demand is expected to grow at a similar pace, leaving the market sensitive to which suppliers are included in purchasing programmes.

The supply-demand picture changes significantly depending on China and Russia. Excluding both suppliers creates a tighter market. Including them creates more apparent supply availability. This makes qualification and geopolitical acceptability just as important as physical capacity.

Some US ingot producers began qualifying Chinese titanium sponge in 2024. US imports from China rose to a 10-year high of 1,069t that year, showing that buyers were willing to test Chinese material when diversification pressure increased.

However, imports fell to 155t last year and no Chinese sponge imports were reported in January-February 2026. Tariff volatility, high mill inventories and policy uncertainty discouraged further purchasing.

This shows the main barrier for China aerospace-grade titanium sponge. Aerospace qualification requires multi-year commitments, stable documentation, repeatable quality and customer confidence. Buyers will not qualify a new source quickly if they fear trade rules could change again.

Titanium is exempt from the latest 10% US tariff, and overall duties have fallen back to 40% from 60%. But the rate itself is not the only issue. For aerospace buyers, volatility can be more damaging than the actual tariff level.

A mill can absorb or price a known tariff. It cannot easily build a long-term qualification strategy around unpredictable policy. This is why US buyers may limit Chinese sponge procurement to 15-20% of requirements, even if the material is technically acceptable.

Europe and Asia-Pacific may offer more immediate export channels. China already supplies aerospace-grade sponge to buyers in those regions, supporting shipments even when US demand is limited.

Capacity Expansion Could Change the Titanium Sponge Balance

China is preparing a large wave of aerospace-grade sponge capacity additions. Several major projects are scheduled to come on line soon, with combined new capacity of around 110,000 t/yr.

The scale is unprecedented. The planned additions exceed the combined existing capacity of Japan’s Toho and Osaka Titanium, Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant, and Saudi Arabia’s ATTM.

China’s expansion is driven by two demand streams. Domestic aerospace demand is rising from the Comac C919 programme and military aircraft production. At the same time, producers expect higher export demand as western OEMs diversify away from Russia.

China’s titanium mill product demand already has a meaningful aerospace base. Aerospace applications accounted for about 20% of China’s titanium mill product demand in 2025, or roughly 31,280t. The chemicals industry remained the largest segment at 48%.

The domestic base gives Chinese sponge producers a stronger platform for quality improvement. Aerospace production experience matters because sponge qualification depends on consistency over time, not only nameplate capacity.

Still, some market participants question whether all new capacity can secure international aerospace qualification. New lines may need years of operating history before western melters and OEMs accept material for aircraft applications.

This is a critical distinction. China may have large physical capacity, but aerospace supply depends on approved, audited and repeatable production. Capacity alone does not guarantee market access.

Price competitiveness may support adoption. Domestic China aerospace-grade sponge prices have recently held firm at 55,000-57,000 yuan/t ex-works because of cost pressure. That remains competitive against some western supply routes, especially if buyers need alternative non-Russian material.

However, qualification is likely to split the market by application. Standard structural titanium grades are more likely to accept Chinese sponge over time. These grades support airframes and less critical structural components where qualification remains strict but less restrictive than engine-grade applications.

Premium-quality sponge will be harder to penetrate. Engine, landing-gear and other demanding aerospace uses require deeper qualification, tighter chemistry control and stronger confidence from prime contractors and tier suppliers.

Airbus’ titanium demand outlook adds another layer. The A350 is a high titanium-bearing platform, with titanium representing around 15% of aircraft weight. As A350 production rises toward 2027 and 2028, titanium demand visibility should improve across the supply chain.

That demand pull could make Chinese material more attractive if western supply tightens. But buyers will still balance cost, qualification, geopolitics and supply security.

For Chinese producers, the path is clear but difficult. They must prove consistent aerospace-grade quality, build long-term customer trust, manage export documentation and navigate trade policy risk.

For western OEMs, the decision is strategic. China aerospace-grade titanium sponge could reduce Russia exposure and improve supply flexibility. But it also introduces another geopolitical dependency at a time when aerospace and defence supply chains are under closer scrutiny.

The most likely outcome is partial adoption. Chinese sponge may become a growing supplement for standard-quality structural grades, while established Japanese, Kazakh, Saudi and other qualified suppliers remain central to premium aerospace applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge will become harder for western aerospace supply chains to ignore as aircraft build rates rise and Russian exposure narrows. The decisive issue is not capacity, but whether Chinese producers can convert new output into trusted, qualified and politically acceptable supply.

Nyrstar Port Pirie Antimony Shipment Marks a Strategic Step for Australia

Nyrstar

Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment marks an important milestone for Australia’s critical metals ambitions. The Trafigura-owned group exported its first antimony metal shipment from the Port Pirie pilot plant in South Australia. The initial cargo was small at 1t, but the strategic meaning is much larger. As a result, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment signals that Australia is moving beyond mining into refined critical metals production.

This matters because Port Pirie is the only producer of antimony metal in Australia. Antimony first came out of the plant in November as a by-product of its 160,000 t/yr lead smelting system. That gives the site a unique role in regional supply security. Therefore, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment is not just a commercial export. It is a proof point for Australia antimony production.

The destination profile also matters. The first shipment went to a domestic Australian manufacturer, but future cargoes will head to Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the US. That broad customer reach shows the project is already being positioned as part of a wider allied supply chain. Consequently, non-Chinese antimony supply is becoming more tangible through Port Pirie.

Australia Antimony Production Gains Strategic Relevance

Australia antimony production has become more important as global buyers look for supply outside China. Export controls from China helped drive antimony prices to record highs in 2025. Prices have since fallen sharply, but they still remain well above long-term averages. As a result, new antimony supply outside China still carries strategic weight.

Port Pirie is aiming for 2,000 t/yr of antimony capacity by the end of this year. With further upgrades, the site could expand to 5,000 t/yr by 2028. That is meaningful for a market where refined antimony capacity remains concentrated. Therefore, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment may become the first step in a much larger supply expansion.

The project also shows why smelting matters. Mining alone does not guarantee supply security if refining stays concentrated elsewhere. Port Pirie gives Australia more control over conversion into finished metal. Meanwhile, it also strengthens the case for investing in local metallurgical infrastructure.

Strategic Metals Refining Could Expand Beyond Antimony

Strategic metals refining at Port Pirie may not stop with antimony. Trafigura is also evaluating the site’s potential to produce bismuth and tellurium. Both metals have faced export controls from China since February 2025. That makes the plant’s optionality more important than a single-metal story.

This wider angle is significant for industrial policy. Governments supported Port Pirie last year with an A$87mn rescue package tied to zinc and lead smelting pressures. That support now looks more strategic in hindsight. As a result, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment shows how legacy smelters can be repositioned for critical minerals relevance.

The broader lesson is clear. Strategic metals refining is becoming just as important as resource ownership. Countries that can smelt, refine, and convert specialty metals will hold more value in future supply chains. Therefore, Port Pirie may become one of Australia’s more important industrial assets if the expansion continues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This first shipment matters because it proves that Australia can move up the value chain in antimony. The real story is not the first tonne. It is that Port Pirie now has a credible path toward becoming a strategic non-Chinese refining hub for multiple critical metals.

Container Shortage Disrupts India's Manganese Alloy Exports

India's manganese alloy exporters are currently grappling with severe logistical hurdles due to a shortage of containers, escalating ocean freight rates, and worsening port congestion nationwide. These challenges have significantly impacted their profitability, compounded by declining alloy prices and increasing costs for both imported and domestic ore, in addition to surging freight charges.

In response to these difficulties, exporters have been compelled to redirect their shipments from eastern India to southern India over the past fortnight. Freight rates from eastern India to Europe and the US have surged dramatically, with costs for shipping to Rotterdam, Europe, rising by approximately $2,000 per container to $4,000 per container. Similarly, rates for shipments to Houston, US, have skyrocketed to $5,000 per container.

The severe port congestion has resulted in long queues of ships awaiting berths, causing significant delays in manganese alloy deliveries and complicating the finalization of export deals. The current delay for securing available containers is approximately 10-15 days.

In southern India, containers are more readily available. Consequently, some traders exporting from both Kolkata and Vizag ports have shifted their operations to Vizag, benefiting from shorter container waiting times. However, many exporters continue to struggle with dispatching products to Europe and the US due to the greater difficulty in securing container vessel availability for westbound shipments compared to those headed to Asia-Pacific countries.

According to customs data, India's manganese alloy exports declined by 8% to 537,748 tons in January-April this year, compared to 586,315 tons during the same period last year. Currently, European demand for Indian manganese alloy is subdued due to the summer lull and maintenance activities undertaken by some European consumers until late July. Market participants expect demand to rebound between late July and mid-August, with buyers adopting a cautious approach by booking cargoes only for immediate needs.

Manufacturers anticipate a decline in container freight rates to more manageable levels by late September to October. Meanwhile, the impact of container shortages on the ferro-chrome market, another commodity heavily reliant on imported raw materials and significant Indian exports, has been limited. This is attributed to subdued global stainless steel industry demand and restricted export opportunities.