Asia-Pacific Growth Slows as US-Iran Conflict Raises Energy and Trade Risks

ADB(The Asian Development Bank)

Asia-Pacific growth is expected to slow in 2026 and 2027 as the US-Iran conflict and renewed trade uncertainty weigh on the region’s economic outlook. The Asian Development Bank now forecasts regional growth of 5.1% in both years, down from 5.4% in 2025.

Asia-Pacific growth was stronger last year because companies front-loaded exports before US tariff increases, semiconductor demand stayed high, and private consumption remained firm. But the ADB said the Middle East conflict now presents the largest risk to the region.

Asia-Pacific growth remains supported by domestic demand, steady labour markets and public infrastructure spending. However, prolonged disruption could raise energy and food prices, tighten financial conditions and weaken industrial momentum across key manufacturing economies.

Energy Shock Threatens Inflation and Industrial Demand

The ADB based its latest outlook on assumptions finalised in early March, shortly after the war began. Those assumptions expected the conflict to stabilise early, but the bank said later evidence now points to a higher risk of prolonged disruption.

Regional inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 under the early-stabilisation scenario. If the conflict lasts through the third quarter, inflation could rise to 5.6% in 2026.

This matters for metals and manufacturing because Asia remains central to global supply chains for steel, aluminium, copper products, batteries, semiconductors, electronics and automotive components. Higher energy costs could pressure margins, slow investment and reduce demand for industrial raw materials.

Trade uncertainty adds another risk. Export front-loading helped 2025 growth, but that support is fading as manufacturers adjust to tariffs, weaker global trade and shifting procurement strategies.

China, India and Asean Face Uneven Growth Paths

China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, from 5% last year. Subdued private consumption, property market weakness and slower export expansion are expected to weigh on activity.

The Chinese slowdown remains important for global metals markets. China is the largest consumer of many industrial and battery metals, so weaker growth can quickly affect copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, rare earths and lithium demand expectations.

India’s growth is forecast to fall to 6.9% this year from 7.6% last year, before recovering to 7.3% in 2027. Resilient domestic consumption, recent trade agreements and structural reforms are expected to support the rebound.

Asean growth is projected at 4.6% in both 2026 and 2027, slightly below 4.8% in 2025. Infrastructure spending and domestic demand should provide stability, but weaker exports and fading front-loading effects could limit manufacturing momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ADB forecast shows that Asia’s growth engine is still running, but energy security and trade risk are becoming stronger constraints. For metals markets, the key issue is whether infrastructure spending can offset weaker exports and higher industrial costs.