Chile Lithium Carbonate Exports Lead Global Trade Despite Argentina’s Rapid Rise

Chile Lithium

Chile lithium carbonate exports remained the largest globally in 2025, although the country lost significant market share as Argentina rapidly expanded production. Chile shipped almost 225,750t of lithium carbonate worth $1.9bn, accounting for 62.2% of global exports.

Chile lithium carbonate exports had represented around 78% of global trade in 2024. The fall to 62.2% represents a 15.8 percentage-point decline in only one year and signals a major change in South America’s lithium supply structure.

Chile lithium carbonate exports still give the country a dominant position in battery raw materials, but Argentina is emerging as a much stronger competitor. Argentina exported 102,842t, equivalent to roughly 28-30% of global lithium carbonate flows.

Chile also maintained its position as the world’s leading copper exporter. Chilean producers shipped 5.7mn t of copper in 2025, generating $53.6bn in export revenue and accounting for 16.2% of global exports.

Argentina Changes the Balance of South American Lithium Supply

Argentina’s rapid increase in lithium carbonate exports is reducing Chile’s historical dominance of the market. The shift reflects new production capacity entering the Argentine lithium sector and creating a second major South American export platform.

This competition has strategic implications for battery manufacturers. Greater supply diversification between Chile and Argentina can reduce dependence on a single producing country and provide buyers with more procurement options.

For Chile, the challenge is maintaining competitiveness while expanding production and moving toward higher-value lithium processing. Resource quality alone will not guarantee continued market dominance as neighbouring projects add capacity.

The change also matters for pricing. A broader supply base can increase competition between producers, especially during periods when lithium markets are already well supplied.

At the same time, Chile remains a major strategic supplier because of its established operations, infrastructure and long experience in lithium carbonate production.

The market is therefore moving from overwhelming Chilean dominance toward a more balanced South American structure, with Argentina becoming increasingly important to global battery supply chains.

Copper Leadership Gives Chile a Second Strategic Advantage

Chile’s copper position remains even more deeply established. The country has held the leading global export position for decades and shipped 5.7mn t in 2025.

State-owned Codelco remains central to the sector, alongside major international miners operating across the country’s large porphyry copper deposits.

Copper export revenue of $53.6bn demonstrates the metal’s importance to Chile’s economy. It also gives the country exposure to structural demand from power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification.

The combination of copper and lithium gives Chile an unusually strong position in the energy transition supply chain. Few countries are leading exporters of both a major electrical metal and a core battery material.

However, the two markets face different competitive dynamics. Chile’s copper leadership remains firmly established, while lithium faces faster capacity growth from Argentina and other emerging producers.

Chile’s long-term industrial opportunity therefore lies not only in maintaining export volumes, but in capturing more value through processing, technology and downstream manufacturing connected to both metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile remains a critical supplier of both copper and lithium, but its lithium dominance is becoming less absolute. Argentina’s rise shows that future leadership in battery materials will depend increasingly on capacity growth, processing economics and speed of project development.

Ascend, Trafigura lithium carbonate offtake deal signals growing recycled supply pipeline

Ascend Elements

Ascend, Trafigura lithium carbonate offtake deal expands the commercial pathway for recycled battery materials. Ascend Elements signed a five-year offtake agreement with Trafigura to supply lithium carbonate. Ascend, Trafigura lithium carbonate offtake deal covers 15,000 metric tonnes delivered between 2027 and 2031. Therefore, the agreement anchors a multi-year recycled lithium stream for downstream buyers.

The companies did not disclose financial terms. However, the contract length and volume provide a clearer demand signal for recycled lithium investments. Meanwhile, producers and traders are looking for stable supply that can meet battery-grade specifications. As a result, contracted recycled lithium can compete more directly with mined and brine-derived material.

Offtake contracts strengthen recycling scale-up in North America and Europe

Ascend, Trafigura lithium carbonate offtake deal supports Ascend’s growth pipeline across two regions. The company is building capacity in North America while expanding its European ambitions. Meanwhile, Ascend partnered in September with GEM to collaborate on lithium-ion battery recycling in Europe. Therefore, the company is positioning for cross-regional feedstock and processing optionality.

Offtake agreements also reduce market risk for new plants. They can improve financing outcomes by showing future revenue visibility. However, execution still depends on scrap availability, logistics, and qualification cycles with cathode customers. As a result, long-term contracts often become a prerequisite for bankable recycling projects.

Battery-grade lithium salts from scrap move closer to mainstream supply chains

Ascend recycles spent batteries and manufacturing scrap to produce precursor cathode active materials and battery-grade lithium salts. This approach can shorten supply chains while reducing exposure to upstream mining disruption. Meanwhile, policymakers and OEMs are pushing for circularity and localized sourcing. Therefore, recycled lithium carbonate can become a strategic procurement tool.

The 2027–2031 delivery window also matters for planning. It aligns with the period when end-of-life battery volumes rise and recycling infrastructure scales. However, quality consistency and recovery efficiency will determine real competitiveness. As a result, Ascend, Trafigura lithium carbonate offtake deal will likely be judged on delivered tonnes and specification compliance, not headline capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recycled lithium is moving from pilot narrative to contracted supply reality. Meanwhile, traders are stepping in to aggregate and de-risk new flows. Therefore, expect more multi-year offtakes as recycling shifts into a commodity-grade business.

Xinjiang Nonferrous in China Begins Lithium Carbonate Production

Lithium Carbonate

Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal, a state-owned producer in China, has commenced lithium carbonate production at a facility located in the Hetian area of northwest China's Xinjiang region.

This project, with a designed capacity of 100,000 tons per year for lithium salts, will be developed in two phases. The initial phase includes the production of 30,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate, 30,000 tons per year of lithium hydroxide, and 15,000 tons per year of lithium chloride.

Construction of the first phase began in July of last year, and by the end of May, the company had produced its first batch of qualified products from the 30,000 t/yr lithium carbonate line. The goal for this year is to produce 12,000 tons.

Details regarding the construction timelines and launch dates for the second phase, which will produce 25,000 tons per year of lithium salts, remain undisclosed.

Xinjiang Nonferrous is developing an integrated facility encompassing mining, separation, and processing, with the capacity to process 3 million tons of lithium ore annually to produce 600,000 tons of high-grade lithium concentrate. The company plans to commence mining operations in the coming months, aiming for an annual production of 130,000 tons of concentrate this year.

In 2019, the company acquired exploration rights for rare metals in the Hetian area for 2 billion yuan ($276 million). The area's measured and controlled lithium ore resources total 50 million tons, equivalent to 700,000 tons of lithium oxide. Resource estimates are expected to increase to 100 million tons, equivalent to 1.5 million tons of lithium oxide, upon completion of exploration.

Chinese lithium producers are ramping up production both domestically and internationally to meet strong demand from the electric vehicle battery industry. Another domestic lithium producer, Hunan Anneng Ganfeng, is also set to commence production at a 25,000 t/yr lithium carbonate plant in October.

The rapid increase in output has outpaced demand growth, leading to a decline in prices. On June 19, Metalnomist assessed prices for 99.5% grade lithium carbonate at 94,500-99,500 yuan per ton ex-works, down by over 80% from their record highs in November 2022. Increased supplies from Qinghai, China's main production hub for lithium extracted from brines, have continued during the warmer summer months. Some major producers may reduce output if prices continue to fall.

E3 Lithium battery grade lithium carbonate milestone in Alberta brines

E3 Lithium

E3 Lithium battery grade lithium carbonate production marks a key milestone for Alberta’s emerging lithium industry. The company has produced 99.7pc purity carbonate at its Clearwater Project demonstration facility near Bashaw, confirming its direct lithium extraction (DLE) flowsheet. This first output signals that E3 can convert lithium chloride from the Leduc Reservoir into commercial-grade battery chemicals.

E3’s Phase 1 design targets 12,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent, with phased expansion to 36,000 t/yr. Meanwhile, measured and indicated LCE resources at Bashaw total 16.2mn t, giving the project multi-decade scale. The early demonstration work therefore de-risks both chemistry and process integration ahead of full financing.

Cost structure positions E3 in the mid-cost global curve

The Clearwater Project carries an initial operating cost estimate of $6,200/t LCE, with capex of $2.5bn. That places E3 Lithium battery grade lithium carbonate in the mid-range of the global cost curve, but with meaningful upside if technology and power costs improve. As a result, investors will focus on power pricing, brine chemistry stability and long-term offtake terms.

Production is scheduled to begin in 2028 or 2029, aligning with the next wave of North American cathode and cell capacity. Therefore the timing could help secure premium contracts from OEMs seeking non-brine imports. The project’s large resource base also supports future debottlenecking beyond the initial 36,000 t/yr.

From brine to battery with strategic partnerships

E3 has already secured $41.9mn in government grants, leaving $25.4mn available, which signals strong policy backing. At the same time, its joint development agreement with Pure Lithium aims to link extraction directly with anode production. That “Brine to Battery” approach could shorten supply chains and reduce conversion losses.

For automakers and cathode producers, E3 Lithium battery grade lithium carbonate offers a new North American brine source. However, commercial success will depend on scale-up risk, impurity control and DLE reliability over years, not months. If E3 executes, Clearwater could become a template for other Western brine projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

E3 Lithium’s progress moves Canadian brine projects from slides to steel, at a time when IRA-driven demand is still ramping. The combination of DLE, large resources and integrated anode concepts is strategically significant, even if costs remain mid-tier. For supply-chain planners, Clearwater now belongs on the serious watch list for late-decade battery-grade supply.

ABM Utah Lithium Project Targets Direct Extraction and Magnesium Output

ABM

ABM Utah lithium project plans could add a new US domestic source of lithium carbonate equivalent and magnesium if feasibility work supports development. American Battery Materials is assessing a direct lithium extraction facility in Utah tied to its Lisbon Valley project.

The ABM Utah lithium project is designed to produce 10,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent. The proposed facility would also produce 20,000 t/yr of magnesium ingots, giving the project a broader critical minerals profile.

The ABM Utah lithium project is located in the Paradox Basin, which straddles southern Utah and Colorado. The region sits in a historic seabed and contains lithium, magnesium, bromine, potash and potassium.

Historical data from Lisbon Valley show lithium values ranging from 81-500ppm. The next test is whether those values can support a commercial direct lithium extraction operation with competitive recovery, cost and product quality.

Direct Lithium Extraction Could Support US Battery Supply

Direct lithium extraction is becoming more important as the US seeks domestic lithium supply without relying only on hard-rock mining or traditional evaporation routes. DLE can potentially recover lithium from brines faster and with a smaller surface footprint.

For ABM, the strategic opportunity is to convert Lisbon Valley brine resources into battery-linked lithium carbonate equivalent. A 10,000 t/yr project would not dominate the market, but it could become a useful domestic supply source if successfully developed.

The project also fits US policy priorities. Washington is trying to secure more lithium, magnesium and other critical materials for batteries, defence, energy storage and manufacturing.

However, DLE projects remain technically demanding. Brine chemistry, recovery rates, reagent consumption, water handling, scaling, impurity control and operating cost will determine whether the Lisbon Valley project can move beyond feasibility.

Product qualification will also matter. Battery customers need consistent lithium carbonate quality, and that requires reliable processing from brine extraction through purification and final product production.

Magnesium Adds Strategic Value to the Project

The planned magnesium output gives the project an additional industrial angle. Magnesium ingots are used in aluminium alloys, die casting, lightweight components and specialty applications.

US magnesium supply has strategic relevance because magnesium supports automotive lightweighting, aerospace materials and defence-linked manufacturing. A domestic source could help reduce exposure to imported material.

The Paradox Basin’s broader mineral endowment also strengthens the project’s optionality. Lithium, magnesium, bromine, potash and potassium create potential for multi-product development, depending on commercial recovery and market conditions.

Multi-product projects can improve economics if by-products are saleable and processing flows are integrated efficiently. However, they can also add complexity because each product requires its own specification, market and operating route.

For ABM, feasibility work will need to prove both the lithium and magnesium business cases. Investors and customers will watch the project’s recovery assumptions, capital cost, permitting path and development timeline.

If successful, the Lisbon Valley project could support a more diversified US critical minerals base. Its importance lies not only in lithium supply, but in the possibility of linking battery materials with magnesium production from one regional resource system.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ABM’s Utah plan shows how US lithium projects are increasingly being framed as multi-mineral supply platforms. The key question is whether direct lithium extraction can turn Paradox Basin brines into qualified lithium carbonate and meaningful magnesium output at commercial cost.

Stardust Lithium Chloride Feedstock Agreement Supports Oklahoma Refinery Plan

Stardust Power

Stardust lithium chloride feedstock agreement has strengthened the company’s plan to supply its Muskogee, Oklahoma refinery with domestic lithium brine material for battery-grade lithium carbonate production. The deal covers lithium chloride feedstock from a California brine project, with initial deliveries scheduled for the first half of 2028.

The agreement could provide up to 15,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent. Stardust Power has not yet disclosed the specific project name or location, saying those details will follow after a definitive agreement is signed.

Stardust lithium chloride feedstock agreement is strategically important because the company’s Muskogee refinery is planned for up to 50,000 t/yr of LCE capacity. Securing feedstock is one of the most important requirements for any lithium conversion project, especially as the US tries to build more domestic battery materials capacity.

California Brine Supply Adds Domestic Feedstock Option

The feedstock will come from a lithium brine project in California, making the agreement part of a wider US push to connect brine resources with domestic refining. California’s Salton Sea region has become one of the most closely watched lithium extraction zones in North America.

Companies active in the region include Berkshire Hathaway Energy Renewables, EnergySource and Controlled Thermal Resources. Based on expected integration and potential volume, Controlled Thermal Resources is considered the most likely supplier.

This matters because lithium chloride from brine projects can become an important input for downstream lithium carbonate production. If direct lithium extraction and brine processing projects scale successfully, they could reduce US dependence on imported lithium chemicals.

The timing remains important. Deliveries are not expected until 2028, which means Stardust still needs to manage project development, financing, permitting, customer qualification and feedstock conversion before commercial output can be secured.

Muskogee Refinery Builds a Broader Lithium Supply Network

Stardust’s Muskogee refinery is planned to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, a key material for cathode production and lithium-ion batteries. The project is designed for up to 50,000 t/yr of LCE capacity, making feedstock diversification essential.

The California agreement adds to Stardust’s existing feedstock network. Other partners include Prairie Lithium in Canada and Mandrake Resources in Utah, giving the company multiple potential raw material streams.

The company also has a non-binding offtake agreement with Sumitomo for up to 25,000 t/yr of LCE over 10 years. That agreement gives Stardust a potential downstream sales channel, but commercial execution will depend on turning feedstock agreements into qualified battery-grade production.

For the US lithium supply chain, the project reflects a broader challenge. Domestic refinery announcements are increasing, but long-term success depends on reliable brine supply, conversion technology, customer qualification and competitive production costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Stardust’s agreement shows that lithium refining projects are only as strong as their feedstock base. The Muskogee refinery could become a meaningful US lithium carbonate platform, but its real test will be converting domestic brine supply into bankable, battery-grade output.

Ganfeng Launches Mariana Lithium Project, Expands Global Lithium Supply Chain

Ganfeng Lithium Project

China’s Ganfeng Accelerates Lithium Production Across Argentina, Mali, and China

Ganfeng Lithium has officially begun production at its Mariana lithium chloride plant in Argentina's Salta province, strengthening its global lithium supply network. The company launched operations on February 12, marking a significant milestone in its South American investment strategy.

The Mariana project’s first phase features an annual capacity of 20,000 tonnes of lithium chloride. Ganfeng plans to rapidly scale output upon phase completion. Its subsidiary, Litio Minera Argentina, owns 100% of the project, which holds a total lithium resource of 8.12 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).

Ganfeng Expands Global Lithium Footprint with Multi-Continent Strategy

Beyond Mariana, Ganfeng is aggressively scaling its global lithium production. In Argentina, the Cauchari-Olaroz project ramped up output from 6,000 tonnes in 2023 to 25,400 tonnes in 2024. The site targets 30,000–35,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate production in 2025. In Mali, the Goulamina spodumene mine began first-phase operations in December 2024.

In China, Ganfeng has established refining capacities totaling 50,000 t/yr for lithium carbonate and 100,000 t/yr for lithium hydroxide. The company opened a 45,000 t/yr lithium salts plant in Sichuan and launched initial production at a 25,000 t/yr lithium carbonate facility in Hunan’s Chenzhou city through its joint venture Hunan Anneng Ganfeng.

Chenzhou Mega Project Sets New Benchmark for Lithium Refining in China

Anneng Ganfeng plans to invest ¥7 billion (US$960 million) into a 150,000 t/yr lithium carbonate complex in Chenzhou. This project will roll out in three phases, with the initial 50,000 t/yr phase already under construction. These efforts solidify China’s position in downstream lithium conversion and reflect Ganfeng’s ambition to control the full value chain from resource to battery-grade materials.

Ganfeng’s total global resource investment now exceeds 79.59 million tonnes LCE. With assets in Argentina, Mali, China, Australia, Mexico, and Ireland, the firm remains a dominant force in both lithium brine and spodumene extraction.

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant Reaches 80% Capacity as Ramp-Up Recovers

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant

Eramet Argentina lithium plant performance improved sharply in March as the Centenario-Ratones project reached around 80% of its designed capacity. The French mining group said the plant operated near 80% of its 24,000 t/yr nameplate capacity after recovering from February production setbacks.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant is strategically important because Argentina is becoming one of the fastest-growing lithium supply regions globally. Stronger output from Centenario-Ratones supports the country’s push to challenge Chile’s long-standing lithium leadership.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant produced 3,720t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter. Output was limited by downstream equipment shutdowns and natural gas supply constraints, but operations normalised in March.

Centenario-Ratones Recovers After February Disruptions

Eramet temporarily shut part of its downstream equipment in February for an extended period. The work was designed to implement improvements and support the ramp-up process.

Natural gas supply constraints also limited production during the quarter. These disruptions show that lithium brine projects depend not only on resource quality, but also on reliable processing equipment and energy supply.

Centenario-Ratones achieved its highest production rate to date in March. This suggests the project is moving closer to stable commercial performance after early ramp-up challenges.

The ramp-up is expected to be completed by July at the latest. If achieved, this would strengthen Eramet’s position in Argentina’s lithium supply chain and improve near-term lithium carbonate availability.

Lithium Sales Highlight Stronger Price Environment

Eramet sold 3,920t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter, generating €57mn in revenue. That implies an average realised price of roughly $16,986/t.

The first-quarter lithium revenue already exceeded Eramet’s lithium revenue for all of 2025. This highlights the impact of stronger lithium carbonate prices and improving sales volumes.

The result matters for project economics. Higher lithium prices can support ramp-up costs, equipment improvements and working capital needs during the early production phase.

For Argentina, Centenario-Ratones adds to a growing pipeline of lithium projects backed by more investor-friendly policies. Successful ramp-up would reinforce Argentina’s role as a major future source of lithium carbonate for battery supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Centenario-Ratones shows both the opportunity and execution risk in Argentina’s lithium growth story. Strong prices improve project economics, but stable energy supply and processing reliability will decide whether ramp-up targets become sustained production.

Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project targets battery-grade lithium carbonate from brine

Intrepid Potash

Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project development is moving forward in Wendover with Aquatech and Adionics. Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project plans to convert lithium-bearing brine byproduct into battery-grade lithium carbonate. As a result, Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project strategy links fertilizer infrastructure with US critical minerals goals.

High extraction results strengthen the technical case

Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project testing achieved a 92.9% lithium extraction rate from brine byproduct. The process produced lithium chloride above 99.5% purity using Adionics’ system. Meanwhile, Aquatech validated conversion and refining into 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate.

These results matter because brine projects often fail at scale due to yield loss. However, high recovery and high purity reduce downstream reprocessing needs. Therefore, the project may deliver a simpler route to qualifying battery-grade material.

Infrastructure reuse could lower capex and execution risk

Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project positioning relies on existing Wendover potash assets and site logistics. The company argues that existing infrastructure differentiates it from greenfield lithium builds. As a result, the project can potentially shorten development cycles and reduce capital exposure.

Management also frames the move as a controlled expansion, not a pivot away from fertilizer. However, the company did not provide a detailed timeline for construction or commissioning. Therefore, near-term impact depends on how quickly partners translate pilot results into a bankable flowsheet.

Why this matters for US domestic lithium supply chains

Intrepid Potash Utah lithium project fits a growing trend of extracting lithium from industrial brines and byproducts. This approach can diversify supply beyond hard-rock imports and South American brines. Meanwhile, battery makers increasingly prioritize domestic, specification-grade carbonate for compliance and resilience.

The project’s main advantage is feedstock adjacency to an operating industrial site. However, commercialization will still hinge on throughput, reagent costs, and long-run brine consistency. Therefore, investors will watch for pilot-to-commercial scale milestones and offtake alignment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project looks like a pragmatic byproduct-to-critical-mineral upgrade, not a speculative lithium land-grab. However, the absence of a firm timeline suggests the partners still need to de-risk scale-up. The winners in DLE will be the teams that prove stable operations, not just lab-grade purity.

Dazhong Mining Expands Lithium Resources at Jiada Mine

Dazhong Mining

Lithium Resources at Jiada Mine Increase Significantly

Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining has revised higher its lithium resource estimates at the Jiada spodumene mine in Sichuan. The mine’s reserves now total 1.4842mn t of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) with an average grade of 1.38pc lithium oxide. This upgrade raises Dazhong’s total lithium resources across its assets to 4.72mn t LCE. The company also operates the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Hunan province, strengthening its domestic lithium footprint.

Dazhong’s Investment in Lithium Supply Chain Expansion

Dazhong is actively expanding into downstream lithium processing and battery production. The firm is building lithium carbonate and cathode active material production lines, alongside lithium-ion battery plants in Hunan, with an investment of 16bn yuan ($2.2bn). It also plans to develop a large-scale complex in Inner Mongolia with 40,000 t/yr lithium carbonate, 40,000 t/yr lithium salts, 250,000 t/yr lithium iron phosphate, 100,000 t/yr artificial graphite anode material, and 10 GWh/yr lithium-ion batteries. These projects highlight China’s ambition to dominate the entire lithium value chain.

Lithium Market Pressures Despite Long-Term Demand

The lithium market remains oversupplied, pushing prices to multi-year lows despite robust long-term demand forecasts. Chinese lithium carbonate prices are currently at Yn59,800-61,000/t ex-works, down 89pc from the November 2022 peak of Yn561,000-576,000/t. Rising supply from Chinese producers, including new capacity expansions like Dazhong’s, has weighed on spot prices. However, strong demand from electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and emerging battery technologies is expected to support recovery in the medium term.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Dazhong Mining’s resource upgrade and heavy downstream investments underline China’s strategy to secure leadership across the lithium supply chain. While today’s oversupply keeps prices depressed, structural demand from EVs and storage solutions suggests that projects like Jiada will be vital in balancing the global market in the next decade.

Aqua Metals to Double Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate Production in Ambitious Expansion

Aqua Metals

US Battery Recycler Targets Significant Growth in Lithium Supply Amid Rising EV Demand

Aqua Metals, a leading US battery recycler, has announced plans to more than double its production of battery-grade lithium carbonate. This strategic move reflects the company's effort to meet the increasing demand for critical materials used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems.

Aqua Metals will prioritize the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with a mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) — a solution containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese — making up the remaining portion of its output. This decision aligns with the growing importance of lithium as a key component in the global transition to electric mobility and renewable energy storage.

Expansion of Lithium Carbonate Production

Although Aqua Metals did not disclose the exact volume of the increase, the company's 2023 annual report outlined a Phase One processing capacity of 3,000 metric tonnes per year (t/yr) of lithium battery black mass, with a total processing capacity of 10,000 t/yr. This expansion will significantly contribute to the lithium supply chain, supporting the growing demand from EV manufacturers and energy storage providers.

The company is currently in discussions with feedstock suppliers and customers to ensure the success of this accelerated expansion. By securing reliable sources of materials and forming strategic partnerships, Aqua Metals aims to position itself as a key player in the growing lithium recycling market.

Positioning for the Future of Lithium Recycling

Aqua Metals’ aggressive expansion of lithium carbonate production comes at a time when the global market for lithium is under significant pressure due to the surge in demand for EVs. As part of its efforts, the company is focusing on sustainable recycling practices, utilizing innovative methods to recover lithium from used batteries.

In conclusion, Aqua Metals is positioning itself to meet the future needs of the battery industry. Its commitment to increasing production capacity and securing key partnerships demonstrates its role in advancing the circular economy for lithium and other critical metals.

China's Lithium Prices Fall to 4-Year Low Amid Oversupply and Trade Tensions

China's Lithium

Oversupply and weaker export demand push lithium carbonate prices to multi-year lows in China

Chinese Lithium Carbonate Prices Plunge on Oversupply

Chinese lithium carbonate prices have dropped to a four-year low due to rising supply and weaker global demand. Prices started declining after CATL resumed its Jianxiawo lithium lepidolite concentrate operation in early February 2025. This facility contributes 6% of China’s total LCE capacity, but the mine itself remains offline as CATL sources ore locally.

At the same time, China’s lithium carbonate imports surged by 48% year-on-year to 32,450 tonnes in January–February 2025. Chile accounted for 62% of these imports, followed by Argentina at 34% and South Korea at 3.2%. Chilean producers like SQM and US-based Albemarle are ramping up output, further intensifying supply pressure.

Demand Weakens Under Policy Shifts and Tariffs

Demand for lithium has softened after China revoked energy storage installation mandates for new energy projects in February 2025. This particularly affected lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which rely heavily on lithium carbonate. Additionally, US import tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries will hit 48.4% by January 2026, impacting export potential.

Despite a 59% year-on-year surge in lithium-ion battery exports in early 2025, much of it was front-loaded. Exporters rushed to ship products before anticipated US tariff hikes, with 26% of shipments headed to the US. However, market participants believe Chinese battery exports may decline sharply in the coming months.

Market Outlook and Price Forecast

As global supply continues to rise and demand remains subdued, prices are expected to dip further. Some analysts predict prices may hover around Yn70,000/tonne ex-works, unless a major inventory restock occurs. Producers are closely monitoring both tariff developments and restocking trends among downstream battery manufacturers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s lithium market is entering a new phase where global trade dynamics now rival domestic supply in pricing power. With inventory levels rising and policy uncertainty in key export markets, stakeholders must recalibrate demand forecasts and sourcing strategies.

Argentina Lithium Incentives Could Accelerate Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes Development

Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes

Argentina lithium incentives could support one of the country’s largest planned lithium brine developments as Ganfeng and Lithium Argentina apply for the Rigi large investment regime. The companies submitted the application after securing environmental permits for the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project.

The Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project combines three brine assets under a 67-33pc joint venture between Ganfeng and Lithium Argentina. The partners plan to invest a combined $3bn to develop the operation into a major lithium carbonate equivalent producer.

Argentina lithium incentives are important because lithium projects require long development timelines, heavy infrastructure spending, and stable fiscal conditions. Rigi offers approved investors tax and royalty reductions, customs facilitation, accounting flexibility, and 30-year legal stability.

Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes Targets Large-Scale Lithium Carbonate Output

The Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project is designed to produce 150,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent at full capacity. This would make it a major addition to Argentina’s lithium supply pipeline and strengthen the country’s position in the global battery materials chain.

The project will use a mix of evaporation and direct lithium extraction techniques. This hybrid approach reflects a broader industry trend, as developers seek to improve recovery, reduce processing bottlenecks, and manage water and environmental constraints more carefully.

Production is scheduled to start in 2029 at 25,000 t/yr. The operation is expected to reach 50,000 t/yr by 2031, then 100,000 t/yr by 2034, before ramping up to 150,000 t/yr by 2038 after two phased expansions.

Legal Stability Becomes Critical for Lithium Investment

Argentina lithium incentives could improve investor confidence at a time when lithium prices, financing conditions, and project costs remain challenging. Large brine projects need predictable rules because returns depend on multi-decade production and phased capital deployment.

The Rigi application also shows how Argentina is trying to convert its lithium resource base into industrial investment. Environmental permits give the project a regulatory foundation, while incentive approval could improve the commercial framework for construction and expansion.

For global battery supply chains, the project’s timing matters. If delivered as planned, Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes could add meaningful lithium carbonate equivalent supply during the 2030s, when EV, energy storage, and battery manufacturing demand may require more diversified sources outside current dominant supply channels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium opportunity depends on whether policy stability can match geological potential. The Rigi framework gives projects like Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes a clearer investment case, but execution risk will remain high until financing, technology performance, and phased ramp-up are proven.

Eramet Begins Lithium Production in Argentina, Expands Global Supply

Eramet

French mining company Eramet has officially commenced lithium carbonate production at its Centenario plant in Argentina, marking a significant milestone in the global lithium supply chain. The project successfully integrates direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, positioning Eramet as a key player in the lithium industry at a time when demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to surge.

Centenario Lithium Plant: Industrial-Scale DLE Implementation

The Centenario-Ratones salar, located in Argentina, holds an estimated 15 million metric tons (mt) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in total recoverable mineral resources. With an initial production capacity of 24,000 mt per year, the plant has the potential to scale up to 75,000 mt LCE annually. The integration of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology at an industrial scale enhances recovery efficiency and places the project within the first quartile of the lithium industry cost curve. This positions Eramet favorably against competitors in terms of production costs and long-term sustainability.

DLE technology, which allows for a more efficient and environmentally friendly lithium extraction process, is gaining traction as the industry seeks alternatives to traditional evaporation pond methods. By implementing DLE, Eramet can accelerate lithium production, reduce water consumption, and improve overall recovery rates.

Eramet Takes Full Control After Buyout of Tsingshan Stake

Eramet strengthened its hold over the Centenario project in October 2024 by acquiring the remaining 49.9% stake from Chinese steelmaker Tsingshan Holding Group for $699 million. This strategic buyout gives Eramet full ownership and operational control over the lithium operation, enabling the company to streamline decision-making and focus on long-term expansion plans.

The buyout signals Eramet’s strong commitment to lithium production, reinforcing its strategic position in the global battery supply chain. As demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries continues to rise, Eramet's Argentina operation is expected to play a pivotal role in securing lithium supplies for global markets.

Conclusion

Eramet’s launch of lithium carbonate production at Centenario represents a major advancement in the lithium industry, particularly with its industrial-scale adoption of DLE technology. The plant’s scalability to 75,000 mt LCE annually, combined with its low-cost positioning, makes it a significant asset in the global lithium market. By regaining full ownership of the project, Eramet has reinforced its role as a leading supplier of battery-grade lithium, crucial for the future of EVs and energy storage systems.

China’s C&D Begins Construction of Major Lithium Carbonate Plant in Sichuan

Xiamen C&D

$144 Million Investment to Boost Battery-Grade Lithium Supply for EV Industry by 2027

Xiamen C&D, a Chinese state-owned conglomerate, has launched construction of a large lithium carbonate production facility in Dazhou, Sichuan province, in partnership with Jiangxi Kexiang Enterprise Management. The new project targets China's fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, with a projected total capacity of 140,000 tons per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate.

The project, valued at 1.05 billion yuan ($144 million), will be developed in three phases. The first phase, expected to produce 40,000 tons per year, is scheduled to begin operations by the end of 2025. Full-scale production is planned for completion by 2027, reflecting China's continued investment in core battery materials infrastructure.

Lithium Carbonate Capacity Expands Amid EV Boom

Lithium carbonate remains a critical raw material for lithium-ion batteries, which power the majority of electric vehicles globally. China, as the world’s largest EV market, continues to increase domestic production to reduce reliance on imports and stabilize raw material prices.

Alongside this project, other major players like Zhejiang Zhongneng have also ramped up output. On February 17, the company launched its new facility in Shaoxing, Zhejiang province, with an initial capacity of 10,000 tons per year.

However, experts warn that rapid capacity expansion across China may be outpacing demand. Oversupply could continue to weigh on lithium carbonate prices, which have already declined from their 2022 highs. Despite this, long-term fundamentals remain strong as EV adoption continues worldwide.

China’s Lithium-Ion Battery Output Jumps 24% in 2024 on EV and Storage Demand

China’s Lithium-Ion Battery

Lithium Carbonate Leads Growth Amid LFP Battery Expansion

China's lithium-ion battery production surged by 24% in 2024, driven by rising demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS). Output reached 1,170 GWh, up from 943 GWh in 2023, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

Segment-wise, EV battery production hit 826 GWh, while BESS batteries totaled 260 GWh, and consumer electronics added 84 GWh. The combined installed capacity for EVs and BESS rose to 645 GWh, marking a 48% year-on-year increase.

This significant expansion highlights China's continuing dominance in battery manufacturing and its strategic push into renewable energy infrastructure.

Lithium Carbonate Sees Strongest Production Growth

Battery-grade lithium carbonate production reached 670,000 metric tonnes in 2024, reflecting a 45% increase from 2023. Lithium hydroxide output grew to 360,000 tonnes, a 26% gain year-on-year, according to MIIT data.

Lithium carbonate’s growth outpaced lithium hydroxide due to increased adoption of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries. LFP technology, now widely used in EVs and BESS, primarily relies on lithium carbonate, rather than lithium hydroxide.

This shift reflects changing chemistry preferences among automakers and grid-scale storage developers, prioritizing cost, safety, and cycle life. As battery technologies evolve, the metals supply chain must adapt to meet diversified material demands.

For more updates on battery metals, energy storage trends, and lithium market forecasts, follow The Metalnomist.

Ascend Trafigura lithium offtake deal locks in 15,000 tonnes for 2027–2031

Ascend Elements

The Ascend Trafigura lithium offtake deal secures recycled supply for the battery chain. Ascend Elements signed a five-year agreement with Trafigura for lithium carbonate deliveries. The Ascend Trafigura lithium offtake deal covers 15,000 metric tonnes from 2027 to 2031. Financial terms were not disclosed.

This lithium carbonate offtake supports Ascend’s expansion plans. The company says the deal strengthens its North America and Europe pipeline. Meanwhile, buyers want low-carbon feedstock and secure volumes. Therefore, long-term offtake contracts are becoming a key recycling growth lever.

Offtake volumes link recycling output to global trading channels

The agreement calls for 15,000 tonnes over five years. Trafigura will take deliveries between 2027 and 2031. However, the market will watch qualification timelines and product specs. Battery recycling lithium carbonate must meet strict impurity limits for cell makers.

Ascend produces precursor cathode active materials from recycled inputs. It also produces battery grade lithium salts from spent batteries and manufacturing scrap. As a result, the Ascend Trafigura lithium offtake deal supports circular sourcing for cathode supply chains.

Europe strategy expands through GEM partnership and recycling scale-up

Ascend is building international reach through partnerships. In September, Ascend partnered with GEM to collaborate on lithium-ion battery recycling in Europe. Meanwhile, Europe needs compliant recycling capacity under tightening battery regulations. Therefore, the company can use offtake visibility to de-risk new plants and financing.

This deal also signals rising trader interest in recycled battery materials. Traders can aggregate volumes and route material to regional conversion hubs. As a result, recycled lithium carbonate may gain a clearer price discovery pathway.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recycled lithium carbonate will compete harder as new mines ramp up after 2026. Meanwhile, offtake contracts will reward recyclers that prove consistent quality and traceability. Therefore, Ascend should publicize certification and carbon data to defend premiums.

Argentina Lithium Growth Could Challenge Chile’s Regional Lead

Argentina Lithium

Argentina lithium growth could reshape Latin America’s lithium map over the next decade as new projects advance under more investor-friendly rules. Argentina is expected to match Chile’s lithium output by 2035, with some industry participants arguing it could overtake Chile even earlier.

Argentina lithium growth is being supported by faster permitting, large brine resources and stronger investment incentives. By contrast, Chile’s lithium expansion remains constrained by restrictive legislation, lengthy approval processes and uncertainty around new project development.

Argentina lithium growth is strategically important because lithium remains central to electric vehicles, energy storage and battery supply chains. Global buyers want large-scale, politically stable and western hemisphere supply outside more exposed jurisdictions.

Chile remains the region’s largest producer today. However, its future output growth depends heavily on existing producers and slow-moving new projects, while Argentina has a deeper pipeline of advanced developments.

Chile’s Lithium Policy Slows New Supply

Chile has long been Latin America’s dominant lithium producer, but its regulatory system is limiting new investment. Lithium remains non-concessionable and is still treated under legislation linked to nuclear materials.

Companies seeking to extract lithium in Chile must apply for special mining contracts. These contracts are granted through public bidding processes that can be lengthy, bureaucratic and uncertain.

This creates a major exploration problem. Companies may be reluctant to explore land if they cannot be confident of later securing extraction rights.

Chile’s national lithium strategy also requires all new projects to use direct lithium extraction. DLE is viewed as more environmentally friendly than traditional evaporation ponds, but it creates technical and cost challenges.

Each DLE process must be designed around the specific chemistry of each brine resource. That means technology used at one salar cannot simply be copied at another.

This raises development costs and lengthens project timelines. Industry participants estimate that DLE projects may require investment of up to $44,000 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent, compared with about $26,000/t for evaporation projects.

Chile’s new supply pipeline is therefore moving slowly. The first major new project, Rio Tinto’s Maricunga, is expected only by the end of 2030, with another new project expected in 2032.

Until then, Chile may rely mainly on capacity increases from existing producers. That could limit its ability to respond to rising lithium demand if Argentina’s project pipeline accelerates.

Argentina’s Rigi Regime Attracts Lithium Capital

Argentina is moving in the opposite direction. Its government has streamlined licensing and introduced the Rigi incentive regime for large investments.

Rigi provides tax exemptions, import-export benefits and legal protections for approved projects. It also allows companies to settle certain disputes in courts outside Argentina, improving investor confidence.

Ten lithium projects have already applied to Rigi, with three approved. The programme has become a major signal to international investors seeking policy stability and faster project execution.

Argentina now has more than 60 active lithium projects and seven producing assets, the most in Latin America. Two new developments are expected to come on line this year, lifting projected output to 159,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

That remains below Chile’s 305,000t in 2024. However, Argentina has more than 20 projects in advanced stages, including eight close to production.

Argentina’s mining ministry expects output to reach 583,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. That would put the country in position to match or overtake Chile if Chile’s permitting regime does not change.

The investment logic is clear. Argentina offers large brine resources, a more open policy framework and exposure to western hemisphere supply chains. That combination is increasingly attractive to battery makers, automakers and mining companies.

Chile still has enormous lithium potential. But potential alone does not create supply. Without faster approvals and clearer rules, Chile risks losing regional leadership to Argentina.

For the lithium market, this shift matters. Argentina’s rise could increase competition, diversify supply and give buyers more options in South America. It could also make Latin America’s lithium growth less dependent on Chile’s policy choices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium advantage is not only geological; it is regulatory. Chile still has world-class resources, but Argentina is turning policy speed into supply-chain momentum.

Argentina Lithium Growth Could Challenge Chile’s Regional Lead

Argentina Lithium

Argentina lithium growth could reshape Latin America’s lithium map over the next decade as new projects advance under more investor-friendly rules. Argentina is expected to match Chile’s lithium output by 2035, with some industry participants arguing it could overtake Chile even earlier.

Argentina lithium growth is being supported by faster permitting, large brine resources and stronger investment incentives. By contrast, Chile’s lithium expansion remains constrained by restrictive legislation, lengthy approval processes and uncertainty around new project development.

Argentina lithium growth is strategically important because lithium remains central to electric vehicles, energy storage and battery supply chains. Global buyers want large-scale, politically stable and western hemisphere supply outside more exposed jurisdictions.

Chile remains the region’s largest producer today. However, its future output growth depends heavily on existing producers and slow-moving new projects, while Argentina has a deeper pipeline of advanced developments.

Chile’s Lithium Policy Slows New Supply

Chile has long been Latin America’s dominant lithium producer, but its regulatory system is limiting new investment. Lithium remains non-concessionable and is still treated under legislation linked to nuclear materials.

Companies seeking to extract lithium in Chile must apply for special mining contracts. These contracts are granted through public bidding processes that can be lengthy, bureaucratic and uncertain.

This creates a major exploration problem. Companies may be reluctant to explore land if they cannot be confident of later securing extraction rights.

Chile’s national lithium strategy also requires all new projects to use direct lithium extraction. DLE is viewed as more environmentally friendly than traditional evaporation ponds, but it creates technical and cost challenges.

Each DLE process must be designed around the specific chemistry of each brine resource. That means technology used at one salar cannot simply be copied at another.

This raises development costs and lengthens project timelines. Industry participants estimate that DLE projects may require investment of up to $44,000 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent, compared with about $26,000/t for evaporation projects.

Chile’s new supply pipeline is therefore moving slowly. The first major new project, Rio Tinto’s Maricunga, is expected only by the end of 2030, with another new project expected in 2032.

Until then, Chile may rely mainly on capacity increases from existing producers. That could limit its ability to respond to rising lithium demand if Argentina’s project pipeline accelerates.

Argentina’s Rigi Regime Attracts Lithium Capital

Argentina is moving in the opposite direction. Its government has streamlined licensing and introduced the Rigi incentive regime for large investments.

Rigi provides tax exemptions, import-export benefits and legal protections for approved projects. It also allows companies to settle certain disputes in courts outside Argentina, improving investor confidence.

Ten lithium projects have already applied to Rigi, with three approved. The programme has become a major signal to international investors seeking policy stability and faster project execution.

Argentina now has more than 60 active lithium projects and seven producing assets, the most in Latin America. Two new developments are expected to come on line this year, lifting projected output to 159,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

That remains below Chile’s 305,000t in 2024. However, Argentina has more than 20 projects in advanced stages, including eight close to production.

Argentina’s mining ministry expects output to reach 583,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. That would put the country in position to match or overtake Chile if Chile’s permitting regime does not change.

The investment logic is clear. Argentina offers large brine resources, a more open policy framework and exposure to western hemisphere supply chains. That combination is increasingly attractive to battery makers, automakers and mining companies.

Chile still has enormous lithium potential. But potential alone does not create supply. Without faster approvals and clearer rules, Chile risks losing regional leadership to Argentina.

For the lithium market, this shift matters. Argentina’s rise could increase competition, diversify supply and give buyers more options in South America. It could also make Latin America’s lithium growth less dependent on Chile’s policy choices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium advantage is not only geological; it is regulatory. Chile still has world-class resources, but Argentina is turning policy speed into supply-chain momentum.

US Lithium Salt Imports Decline in 2024 Amid Slower EV Adoption

Lithium Mining

Inventory Destocking and Market Shifts Contribute to Lower Import Figures

The United States saw a significant drop in lithium salt imports in 2024, with total imports falling to 16,170 metric tonnes (t), an 11% decrease compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to a combination of inventory destocking and slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

Factors Behind the Decline in Lithium Salt Imports

The drop in imports can be linked to several factors, including price declines and the limited shelf life of lithium salts. As prices fell, US importers consumed lower stocks, adjusting to market conditions. Additionally, the shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which favor lithium carbonate over other lithium salts, further contributed to the decreased demand for lithium oxide and hydroxide.

Impact of Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide Preferences

Imports of lithium oxide and hydroxide saw a dramatic 25% decrease, amounting to just 705 tonnes in 2024. Meanwhile, imports of lithium carbonate, which is crucial for LFP batteries, dropped by 10% to 15,465 tonnes. This change in battery technology preference has driven the demand for lithium carbonate, particularly as more automakers adopt LFP batteries for their EVs.

Source Countries and Global Lithium Supply Chain

Chile and Argentina played a dominant role in supplying lithium salts to the US, accounting for 98% of the total imports. Chile supplied 9,105 tonnes, while Argentina provided 6,779 tonnes. These two countries remain key players in the global lithium supply chain, with their resources being crucial to meeting the US's demand for lithium salts.