Chile Projects $83.2 Billion in Mining Investments Through 2033

Chile mining

Chile is poised to solidify its position as a global mining powerhouse with projected investments of $83.2 billion spanning 2024-2033.

Massive Investments in Mining Projects

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) unveiled its latest study highlighting a significant increase in mining investments for the coming decade. The forecast includes 51 mining projects, up from 49 in the previous study for 2023-2032, which projected $65.7 billion in investments. This growth signals Chile's commitment to bolstering its mining sector and enhancing its global competitiveness.

Key players in Chile's mining expansion include major domestic entities like El Abra, Antofagasta, and state-run copper miner Codelco, which collectively account for 64.5% of the total investment. International stakeholders are also playing a vital role:

• Canadian companies such as Teck, Capstone Copper, Los Andes Copper, and Kinross will represent approximately 10% of investments.
• Japanese corporations, including Sumitomo Metals and Mitsubishi Corp, will contribute 5.7%.
• Australian firms, spearheaded by BHP Billiton, will make up 5.2%.

Copper Production and Diversification

The influx of capital is projected to increase Chile’s copper production capacity by 2.23 million metric tonnes annually, adding to the 5 million tonnes produced in 2023, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). This aligns with Chile’s status as the world’s largest copper producer.

Additionally, $4.7 billion of the investments will be allocated to 15 projects focusing on "metals other than copper," including lithium and gold. Chile already ranks as the world's second-largest producer of lithium, a critical material for batteries and renewable energy storage.

Driving Forces Behind the Investment Surge

This investment boom highlights Chile’s strategic approach to capitalizing on the global demand for essential minerals. Increased copper production will cater to infrastructure and green energy projects worldwide, while lithium investments target the surging electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.

Cochilco’s report emphasizes the country’s appeal to global mining giants and underscores Chile’s robust regulatory framework and resource-rich landscape as key factors driving foreign investment.

Chinese Firms Intensify Investments in Cu-Co Mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo

In a strategic maneuver to secure a steady supply of crucial resources, Chinese enterprises are significantly amplifying their investments in the copper-cobalt reserves of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This initiative addresses China's limited cobalt resources and the enduringly strong copper market.

Leading the charge are prominent entities such as diversified metals producer CMOC, China Railways Resources, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Norin Mining, Excellent Mining, and Huayou Cobalt. According to data compiled by Metalnomist, the DRC produced approximately 167,000 metric tons of cobalt feedstock in 2023, with Chinese mining companies contributing around 59% of this total output. Presently, Chinese investments account for over 62% of the DRC’s total cobalt reserves, a remarkable increase from roughly 25% in 2016. This proportion is anticipated to expand further following Norin Mining's acquisition of Dubai-based Chemaf Resources (CRL).

China’s dependency on imported cobalt, which constitutes nearly 99% of its primary feedstock, has propelled these extensive investments. The DRC remains the foremost supplier of cobalt feedstock to China, accounting for 84% of China's total imports in 2023, trailed by Indonesia (10%), Papua New Guinea (1.6%), and New Caledonia (1.5%).

This domestic resource shortfall has driven Chinese mining firms to intensify their investments in the DRC’s copper and cobalt assets over recent years. CMOC, a global titan in mining cobalt, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and niobium with operations spanning China, the DRC, Australia, and Brazil, acquired a 56% stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine (TFM) from US-based Freeport-McMoRan in 2016, later increasing its stake to 80% in 2017. Additionally, CMOC finalized its acquisition of the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine (KFM) in December 2020.

With copper prices maintaining an upward trajectory since early this year, achieving new heights on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and London Metals Exchange (LME) in mid-May, mining firms have been further incentivized to augment their investments in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines.

Norin Mining's acquisition of CRL, which controls two copper-cobalt mines in the DRC, underscores this trend. Norin Mining Kingco, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Norin Mining, has entered into a share purchase agreement with CRL’s parent company Chemaf to acquire all of Chemaf's shares in CRL. The financial details of the transaction remain undisclosed, yet CRL anticipates completing the deal in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nevertheless, the state mining company Gecamines has expressed opposition to the sale of Chemaf Resources, potentially delaying the acquisition process. A source familiar with the matter noted, "The acquisition is expected to be delayed for a while because of Gecamines' opposition, but it will probably be resolved later without significantly impacting the acquisition."

Chemaf SA is progressing with the expansion of the Etoile mine (Etoile phase 2) to process mixed and sulphide ore, alongside developing a new Mutoshi mine. Both projects, in advanced stages of development, have the potential to collectively produce over 75,000 metric tons of copper and 20,000 metric tons of cobalt hydroxide annually. These new ventures are expected to commence production in 2025, post-acquisition.

Japan Eyes Investments in Argentinian Lithium as Demand for Battery Metals Grows

Argentina lithium

Salta Province Attracts Japanese Interest Through RIGI and Strategic Bilateral Proposals

Japan eyes investments in Argentinian lithium to secure long-term access to key battery metals amid global electrification efforts. Japanese government officials recently met with authorities from Argentina’s Salta province to assess the region’s lithium reserves and explore opportunities for partnership. The talks focused on Salta’s lithium potential and included inquiries into major mining projects across multiple commodities—signaling broader strategic interest in Argentina’s resource sector.

While lithium was the main focus, Japanese officials also discussed First Quantum’s Taca Taca copper project, the Lindero gold mine operated by the UK’s Mansfield, and silver exploration by Abrasilver and Anglogold. Japan’s delegation reportedly requested support for a bilateral investment grant, which, alongside Argentina’s Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), could fast-track Japanese capital into the province’s mining sector.

Argentina’s Investment Incentives Align with Japan’s Supply Chain Strategy

The RIGI framework offers approved projects reduced tax burdens, lower royalties, simplified customs procedures, and accounting flexibility. These benefits are designed to attract large-scale foreign investment into Argentina’s high-potential mining regions. As Japan eyes investments in Argentinian lithium, RIGI could serve as a key enabler for Japanese companies seeking stable, long-term access to battery-grade lithium and related critical minerals.

The visit underscores Japan’s strategy to diversify supply chains away from China, especially for electric vehicle and energy storage technologies. By tapping into Argentina’s lithium triangle, Japan can enhance its resource security while supporting Latin America’s role in the global clean energy transition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s proactive engagement in Argentina’s Salta province reflects a targeted push to secure non-Chinese lithium supply. As battery metal demand accelerates, bilateral frameworks like RIGI and diplomatic investment channels will shape the next wave of global critical minerals partnerships.

Australia Invests A$138.5 Million in Critical Minerals to Strengthen Domestic Supply Chains

Resource Capital Funds

In a significant move to bolster its domestic critical minerals sector, the Australian government announced a new round of investments and grants totaling A$138.5 million ($88.4 million) over the past week. This follows the recent approval of the Future Made in Australia (FMA) investment framework, aimed at diversifying the nation's critical mineral supply chains and creating jobs to meet national security, climate, and energy goals.

Key Investments to Support Domestic Mineral Production

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King highlighted that the majority of these investments will be channeled through Resource Capital Funds (RCF), a specialist investor focused on metal extraction. RCF will invest $75 million in decarbonization projects within the critical minerals sector, marking a significant step in Australia's ongoing efforts to support cleaner, more sustainable mining operations.

Additionally, grants totaling $13.4 million were awarded to five mineral processors across the country to aid the early-stage development of rare earth, vanadium, fluorite, and graphite plants. These projects will play a pivotal role in meeting both domestic and global demand for these vital materials.

This new funding comes on top of A$303.2 million in loans that have already been provided to Iluka Resources for its Eneabba Rare Earths Refinery project. This refinery, located in Western Australia, is a key part of Australia's strategy to become a more significant player in the global rare earths market.

Strategic Alignment with Global Security and Climate Goals

Minister King emphasized the critical importance of these investments in diversifying global supply chains for materials that are crucial to clean energy, climate initiatives, and national security. Australia's growing role in the global critical minerals supply chain is reinforced by its recent FMA package, which allocated $14.3 billion to support the minerals sector, including tax incentives for production.

Australia's commitment to securing its mineral supply chain aligns closely with the goals of its international partners. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government has been actively fostering partnerships to ensure a stable and diversified critical mineral supply. Notably, a year into office, the Australian government signed the Climate, Critical Minerals, and Clean Energy Transformation Agreement with the US, which seeks to accelerate the diversification of clean energy supply chains and ensure stable mineral supply for both countries.

Additionally, the US has shown increasing interest in Australian critical minerals, with the US government recently supporting Australian miner Lynas in its efforts to establish a rare earth plant in the US. These moves further underscore the global strategic importance of securing a steady supply of critical minerals like rare earths, lithium, and vanadium.

China’s Steel Market Faces Persistent Challenges Despite Stimulus Measures

China’s Steel

Chinese steel prices experienced a modest rebound from multi-year lows in late September, spurred by a series of government stimulus policies. However, the steel market's long-term outlook remains uncertain due to sluggish domestic demand, weakening real estate investments, and global trade barriers.

Steel Prices Rebound, but Demand Stays Weak

Steel prices in China bottomed out in late September, with the People’s Bank of China reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% and lowering mortgage rates. Despite these measures, real estate investments for January-September declined by 10.1% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The area of new construction projects dropped by 22.2% over the same period, underscoring a lack of recovery in demand.

Domestic steel demand remains heavily tied to new construction and infrastructure projects. However, China’s shift in focus toward existing housing rather than new builds has limited the effectiveness of stimulus policies.

Steel Production Increases Amidst Price Rebound

Chinese steel mills responded to the price recovery by ramping up production. Profits rebounded from losses of Yn150-200 per ton in early September to Yn200-250 per ton by early October. Weekly rebar output reached 2.4 million tons in mid-October, the highest since late June. Blast furnace and electric arc furnace operation rates also hit two-month highs during this period.

Despite increased production, market participants anticipate a dip in construction steel demand from mid-November as northern cities enter the winter heating season.

Steel Exports: A Mixed Bag

Chinese steel exports surged by 21.2% year-on-year in January-September, totaling 80.71 million tons. However, this growth is under threat from rising anti-dumping measures in countries such as Turkey, India, Vietnam, and South Korea. With major overseas markets slowing operations during the Christmas season, export bookings are expected to taper off in December.

Stimulus Measures: Limited Impact on Real Estate

China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced significant fiscal measures, including a Yn1 trillion issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and an increased financial expenditure of Yn180 billion for 2024. Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) plans to rebuild 1 million apartments in shanty towns and dilapidated areas. However, these measures are relatively mild compared to the peak of 6 million units rebuilt annually from 2016 to 2018.

To further stimulate the housing market, most cities, except Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have lifted purchase restrictions. Despite these efforts, the market remains constrained by long-term structural issues.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Shanghai hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined by Yn230 per ton (6.3%) from 7 October to Yn3,420 per ton as of yesterday. Market analysts suggest that while steel prices may not return to their September lows, downward pressure is likely in November and December.

As China continues to navigate economic headwinds, the steel sector’s recovery appears contingent on significant new investments and sustained domestic demand growth. The global context of anti-dumping measures and trade barriers adds another layer of complexity, potentially capping export growth prospects in the near term.

ADNOC’s Al-Jaber Shifts Tone on Climate: “Energy Is the Solution”

ADNOC

From Cop-28 climate diplomacy to Houston’s energy realism, al-Jaber emphasizes hydrocarbons’ future and new U.S. investments.

ADNOC chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, presented a new stance on the climate-energy debate. Just two years after urging oil executives to embrace decarbonization, al-Jaber declared, "Energy realism is taking center stage" and framed the energy industry as “the solution, not the problem.”

Al-Jaber’s remarks mark a notable shift from his 2023 statements, when he stressed the oil and gas sector’s responsibility to cut emissions and aid in global decarbonization. Back then, as president of the UN Cop-28 climate summit in the UAE, he promoted a call to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

From Responsibility to Realism

In Houston, al-Jaber described his earlier climate warnings as part of a strategy to bring “realism and pragmatism” into climate dialogue. He also claimed the climate narrative had been “hijacked” and required correction. “We succeeded in making the energy industry part of the solution,” he said, reflecting a broader effort to reframe hydrocarbons as essential to the global energy transition.

At Cop-28, instead of endorsing a fossil fuel phase-out, al-Jaber led a compromise that called for a gradual transition. Now, he suggests the sector is driving climate solutions, not delaying them.

ADNOC’s XRG Targets U.S. Natural Gas and Petrochemicals

Al-Jaber also introduced ADNOC’s new energy investment arm, XRG, as a vehicle for major U.S. investments. He called U.S. energy markets an “absolute imperative” and revealed that XRG will soon announce large-scale investments, especially in natural gas infrastructure and petrochemicals.

Last year, ADNOC took a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s hydrogen project at Baytown, Texas. Al-Jaber said similar deals are on the table, suggesting a strategic expansion of ADNOC’s low-carbon portfolio via U.S. partnerships.

The policy shift in Washington, where climate change was recently described as a “side effect” of development by U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright, has created a more favorable investment climate for fossil fuel-focused ventures.

Al-Jaber’s evolving rhetoric signals a realignment of climate ambition and hydrocarbon strategy, positioning Middle Eastern producers as both investors and influencers in the next phase of energy transition.

UAE and Brazil Forge Strategic Minerals Partnership, Targeting Energy Transition Metals

IRENA

Significant Investment Aims to Bolster Brazil's Position in Global Metals Market

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Brazil have announced a landmark partnership focused on the exploration and development of Brazil's burgeoning metals industry, with a strong emphasis on strategic minerals crucial for the global energy transition. This collaboration, formalized between Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the UAE's Ministry of Investment, envisions investments of up to R$15 billion ($2.4 billion) across research, processing, trading, technology, and professional training.

This strategic alliance was cemented during the International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) meeting held in Abu Dhabi on January 11-12. Brazil's return to IRENA, after a period of absence during the previous administration, underscores its renewed commitment to sustainable energy policies. The partnership aligns with IRENA's recognition of Brazil as a key player in the global energy transition.

Brazil's Rich Mineral Reserves Attract Global Attention

Brazil's abundant mineral resources are a primary driver of this partnership. The nation boasts the world's largest reserves and production of niobium, a critical element used in advanced alloys and superconducting technologies. Additionally, Brazil holds significant reserves of natural graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements, placing it among the top global producers. Furthermore, Brazil holds significant positions in lithium and silicon production. This partnership will provide a boost to companies currently operating within Brazil, and also attract new investment.

The recent announcement by Brazil's BNDES development bank to invest R$5 billion in strategic metals projects further highlights the nation's commitment to developing its mineral wealth. These investments are designed to enhance Brazil's capacity to meet the growing global demand for metals essential for renewable energy technologies and other high-tech applications.

Focus on Sustainable Development and Technological Advancement

A core component of the partnership will be the focus on sustainable development practices and technological advancements in the metals industry. This includes investments in research and development to improve processing techniques, reduce environmental impact, and enhance the overall sustainability of mining operations. Professional training programs will also be a key aspect, ensuring that Brazil has a skilled workforce to support the growth of its metals sector. The partnership between the UAE and Brazil is poised to reshape the landscape of the global strategic minerals market.

Argentina Targets Top Spot in Global Copper Production

Argentina Copper

Energy Transition Drives Argentina’s Copper Ambitions

Argentina aims to become a leading copper producer within the next decade, positioning itself as a critical player in the global energy transition. Although the country has not produced copper since 2018, a surge of new investments and policy reforms is transforming its mining landscape. The focus keyphrase, “Argentina copper production,” highlights the government’s strategic goal to leverage its vast mineral reserves.

Strategic Investments and RIGI Program Accelerate Growth

Argentina's mining secretary projects near-term copper output of 900,000 metric tonnes per year from seven advanced-stage projects, with potential to triple production if 15 additional ventures proceed. These seven projects alone could attract over $19 billion in investment. Much of the growth stems from the RIGI incentive program, launched by President Javier Milei's administration to encourage large-scale investments by offering tax breaks and legal certainty. As a result, international companies are showing renewed confidence in Argentina’s mining sector.

Vicuna Joint Venture Exemplifies Argentina’s Mining Revival

The Vicuna joint venture, formed by BHP and Lundin Mining, illustrates the impact of RIGI. It merges two major copper assets—Filo del Sol and Josemaria—which will produce a combined 200,000 tonnes annually. Vicuna’s total investment exceeds $5 billion, and the Filo del Sol discovery is hailed as the largest greenfield copper find in 30 years. Without the RIGI framework, stakeholders confirm this venture would not have materialized. Therefore, Argentina copper production is now seen as a viable and attractive avenue for global mining capital.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina's copper strategy showcases how policy, resource endowment, and global demand can align to reshape a nation’s industrial future. If project timelines and regulatory stability hold, Argentina could challenge Peru and China as a copper heavyweight—making it a linchpin in energy-transition supply chains.

US Expands Semiconductor Investments with India Partnership

India Chip

The US government continues to ramp up investments in semiconductor manufacturing both domestically and internationally, with a significant focus on partnerships with allied nations. This week, a major agreement was reached between the US and Indian governments to establish a new semiconductor plant in Kolkata, India. The facility will focus on producing advanced semiconductors, including infrared, gallium nitride (GaN), and silicon carbide (SiC), to support sectors such as national security, next-gen telecommunications, and clean energy.

Strengthening Tech Ties: US-India Collaborations

This venture is a part of a broader collaboration supported by the US Space Force, Bharat Semi, 3rdiTech, and the India Semiconductor Mission. The mission, initiated by India's electronics and IT ministry (MIIT), aims to build a robust semiconductor supply chain, supported by the US Department of Commerce’s International Technology Security and Innovation (ITSI) Fund. The fund itself is a key initiative under the CHIPS and Science Act, designed to bolster US semiconductor production.

In addition to the plant in Kolkata, US-based Analog Devices has also signed a partnership with India's Tata Electronics. Their collaboration focuses on chip production at Tata's planned $11bn manufacturing plant in Gujarat, with a potential $3bn facility for chip assembly and testing in Assam. Furthermore, US manufacturer GlobalFoundries, after acquiring Tagore Technology’s power GaN IP, announced plans to develop a Kolkata Power Centre for GaN technology.

On the domestic front, the US Commerce Department recently awarded Polar Semiconductor up to $123mn to expand its silicon wafer manufacturing in Bloomington, Minnesota. This marks the first allocation under the CHIPS Act for commercial chip production, which has sparked over $400bn in private semiconductor investments and more than $35bn across 16 states.

Indium Phosphide Exports Become China’s New Chokepoint in AI Data Centre Supply Chain

AI data centre

Indium phosphide exports have become a strategic pressure point in the global AI data centre supply chain as China’s licensing controls delay shipments of a material essential for high-speed optical chips. The restrictions are exposing a new vulnerability in AI infrastructure: the physical materials behind silicon photonics and optical interconnects.

The issue has moved quickly from a specialist semiconductor concern to a high-level trade and industrial policy problem. Coherent, a key optical components supplier backed by Nvidia, warned in early May that indium phosphide shortages were already affecting the market. Its chief executive then joined a US business delegation to China as companies sought relief from export licence delays.

Indium phosphide exports matter because AI data centres are moving beyond copper-based interconnects. As AI workloads grow, hyperscalers need faster, lower-latency and more energy-efficient data transmission between processors, accelerators, switches and optical modules. Indium phosphide is one of the core materials enabling that shift.

The material is used in high-speed optical chips, lasers, detectors and photonic components. These devices support the optical links that move huge volumes of data across AI clusters. Without reliable indium phosphide substrates and wafers, the expansion of advanced AI data centre networks could slow.

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that critical materials policy is becoming more granular. Beijing no longer needs to restrict only rare earths or finished technology products. It can also influence upstream compounds, substrates and wafers that determine whether advanced semiconductor supply chains can scale.

Export Controls Expose a Hidden Bottleneck in Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics has become a critical technology for AI infrastructure because it allows data to move through light rather than electrical signals. This reduces energy use per bit and supports the bandwidth required by large AI systems.

But silicon photonics is not only a silicon story. The most advanced optical systems often require compound semiconductor materials such as indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride and germanium-based compounds. Indium phosphide is especially important for lasers and high-speed optical devices.

This creates a difficult supply chain problem. AI companies, hyperscalers and chipmakers are racing to scale optical modules, but one of the key substrate materials remains highly concentrated. China is the world’s largest indium producer, accounting for about 70% of global output in 2024.

That concentration became more serious after China introduced export restrictions on indium phosphide in February 2025. Since then, licence delays have created backlogs for companies that manufacture or source InP substrates from China.

AXT, one of the world’s largest indium phosphide substrate producers and a major supplier to Coherent, said export permits were its most significant challenge. The company manufactures most of its InP substrates in China and only received its first permits last June. It still faces a large order backlog.

The effect has spread beyond individual suppliers. Coherent, Lumentum, VPEC and LandMark Optoelectronics all sit inside the optical components ecosystem that depends on reliable substrate supply. When permit delays hit upstream InP material, the impact moves through wafers, chips, optical modules and AI data centre equipment.

Prices show the severity of the shortage. Since China introduced export restrictions, the average price of a 6-inch indium phosphide wafer has surged by 250% to about $5,000. That price increase reflects both physical scarcity and the strategic premium attached to non-disrupted supply.

The supply squeeze also comes at a time of aggressive photonics investment. Nvidia announced $2bn investments each in Coherent and Lumentum in March. Marvell Technology also moved into photonics through its acquisition of Celestial AI, reflecting stronger demand for optical technology in AI computing.

These investments show where the industry is heading. AI infrastructure needs optical interconnects to manage power, latency and bandwidth. But China’s indium phosphide controls mean that materials availability could become a gating factor for deployment.

Companies are trying to respond. Coherent plans to double its InP wafer capacity at its Texas plant this year and more than double it again by the end of 2027. US photonics firms are also seeking supply from non-Chinese producers such as Sumitomo Electric Industries.

However, capacity additions are slow. New substrate plants can take two to three years to bring online. Qualification cycles are also long because optical chipmakers cannot easily switch substrate suppliers without testing performance, reliability and consistency.

This makes the shortage difficult to solve quickly. Even if new capacity is announced, it may not arrive fast enough to meet near-term AI data centre demand. Meanwhile, many non-China producers already consume part of their own output internally, reducing the amount available to the broader market.

China’s Materials Chokepoint Strategy Strengthens Domestic Producers

China’s indium phosphide export controls are creating both pressure and opportunity. They restrict global supply, but they also support domestic Chinese substrate producers that are expanding capacity.

Yunnan Germanium, Guangdong Xiandao and Zhuhai Dingtai Xinyuan are among China’s leading domestic InP substrate players. Their role is becoming more important as Beijing uses materials controls to strengthen strategic leverage across semiconductor and AI supply chains.

Yunnan Germanium has already moved to expand. The company announced a 189mn yuan investment in April to raise production capacity to 450,000 single InP wafers annually. Its shipments of InP wafers rose by 74% in 2025, showing fast domestic market growth.

Guangdong Xiandao is also expanding through its subsidiary Guangdong Xianrui. The project is expected to produce 40 t/yr of indium phosphide crystals, which are used as raw material for substrates.

These investments fit a broader pattern. China is not only defending control over upstream critical materials. It is also building downstream processing capacity in higher-value compound semiconductor materials.

However, Chinese producers may not immediately solve the global shortage. Some are still seeking export approvals, and any overseas shipments may be limited. Domestic demand remains a priority, especially as China builds its own AI, optical communications and semiconductor ecosystem.

AXT

Supplier qualification creates another barrier. Companies such as Coherent and Lumentum are unlikely to switch easily from established suppliers. Coherent relies heavily on AXT, while Lumentum sources mainly from Sumitomo and JX Advanced Metals. New suppliers must pass demanding qualification cycles before they can enter critical optical chip supply chains.

This gives China’s export controls a long-lasting effect. Even if alternative suppliers exist, the market cannot instantly redirect demand. The bottleneck is not only production volume. It is qualified, high-quality, customer-approved substrate supply.

The strategic lesson is clear. AI supply chains are not only exposed to advanced chips, GPUs and packaging capacity. They also depend on a deep materials stack that includes indium, phosphorous chemistry, InP crystals, substrates, wafers, lasers, detectors and optical modules.

This is why indium phosphide exports have become so important. AI data centre buildouts need more optical links as clusters grow larger. Copper interconnects face limits in speed, distance and energy consumption. Photonics offers a solution, but only if the materials chain can scale.

For the US and its allies, the response will likely require more than emergency licence negotiations. It will require investment in indium recovery, InP crystal growth, substrate manufacturing, wafer capacity and long-term offtake agreements. It may also require strategic stockpiles for high-purity indium and compound semiconductor substrates.

The issue also strengthens the case for recycling and secondary recovery. Indium is often produced as a by-product, making primary supply difficult to expand quickly. Recovering indium from industrial scrap, displays, semiconductors and related waste streams could become more important if export controls persist.

For AI data centre developers, the risk is timing. Demand for optical modules is accelerating now, while new ex-China capacity may not fully arrive until 2027 or later. That mismatch could raise costs, delay deployments and intensify competition for qualified photonics suppliers.

The market may therefore see a split. Companies with secured InP supply will be better positioned to support hyperscaler demand. Companies exposed to licence delays, qualification bottlenecks or spot-market wafers may face higher costs and delivery risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that the AI race is becoming a materials race. The next bottleneck may not be only GPUs or power supply, but the compound semiconductor substrates needed to move data fast enough inside AI clusters.

Umicore Cuts €800mn in Capex for Battery Materials Amid EV Slowdown

Umicore

Belgian firm halves investment in pCAM and CAM to adjust to changing battery market dynamics

Umicore Reduces Battery Segment Capex to €800mn Through 2028

Umicore will cut its capital expenditure for battery materials solutions to €800mn between 2025 and 2028. The company previously committed €1.6bn but paused expansion plans in Canada for pCAM and CAM projects. This decision reflects slower electric vehicle (EV) growth and falling segment revenues.

At its Capital Markets Day 2025, Umicore confirmed its focus on more selective investments. Around €500mn of the revised capex will be directed to facilities in Europe and South Korea. The company still targets increasing CAM capacity to 45 GWh/year by 2028, up from 30 GWh/year today.

Canadian Battery Project on Hold as Market Cools

In 2023, Umicore announced a $2.1bn investment in Canada, including $1.8bn in capex for a battery materials site. However, weaker EV sales have prompted a strategic reassessment of capital deployment. The current pCAM production capacity remains at 80,000 metric tonnes annually.

Revenue from the battery segment dropped 30% to €386mn in the latest report. Slowing demand in Europe, coupled with a broader global deceleration in EV sales, drove this decline. Meanwhile, Umicore continues to explore cost-efficient growth in regions with stable market demand.

Shifting Priorities and Regional Focus

The company will prioritize mature markets like Europe and South Korea for near-term battery material investments. While Canadian plans are deferred, Umicore aims to sustain technological leadership through optimization and targeted expansion. This strategic pivot reflects broader trends as battery producers recalibrate amid uncertain demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Umicore’s capex cut signals caution across the battery supply chain as EV hype meets market reality. Prioritizing selective regional growth may offer stability while global demand resets post-2024 surge expectations.

Shenghe Resources Reports Increased Rare Earths Output and Sales for First Half of 2024

Rising demand from various sectors drives revenue growth despite net loss

Chinese rare earths producer Shenghe Resources has reported a significant rise in output and sales of rare earth oxides and metals for the first half of 2024. The company achieved a 36% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 5.43 billion yuan ($764.86 million). However, Shenghe posted a net loss of 68.51 million yuan, a sharp contrast to the net profit of 83.97 million yuan recorded in the same period last year. This loss was attributed to declining sales prices and gross profit margins, driven by a steep drop in rare earth and zirconium-titanium product prices and rising costs of raw materials.

Expansion and Investments

Shenghe Resources is actively expanding its global footprint by accelerating overseas resource acquisitions and enhancing its supply chains. In late July, the company announced plans to acquire a 50% additional stake in the Tanzanian rare earth mining company Ngualla Group UK Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Peak Rare Earth. Additionally, Shenghe acquired an 18.2% stake in Vital Metal, an Australian rare earths exploration firm with projects in Canada and Tanzania. Shenghe’s Vietnamese subsidiary, Vietnam Rare Earth, is also partnering with Blackstone Minerals to develop a fully-integrated rare earths value chain in Vietnam.

The company has made substantial investments to secure its resource base and feedstock supply, including a A$43 million investment to acquire Strandline Resources UK from its parent firm. Shenghe also operates several production facilities across China and Vietnam, with ongoing projects such as a 2,000-ton-per-year rare earth metal facility and a 3,300-ton-per-year rare earth oxide project expected to start production in the coming months.

Hindalco Record Earnings FY25 Reach All-Time High with Strong Domestic Performance

Hindalco

Hindalco record earnings FY25 achieved unprecedented levels as the Indian aluminium producer posted its highest-ever EBITDA of Rs 35,500 crores ($4.1 billion) for the financial year ending March 2025. The Hindalco record earnings FY25 results show EBITDA rising 38% from the previous year on revenues climbing 10% to Rs 2.38 trillion, with the final quarter also reaching a new quarterly record driven by strong domestic performance and lower input costs across both aluminium and copper operations.

Upstream Aluminium Business Delivers Exceptional Growth

Hindalco record earnings FY25 were primarily driven by exceptional performance in the upstream aluminium business, which posted EBITDA of Rs 16,262 crores, representing a remarkable 78% increase from the previous year. The fourth quarter upstream aluminium EBITDA reached Rs 4,838 crores, up 79% year-on-year, driven by lower input costs and favourable macros, with industry-best margins of 47%. The downstream aluminium business also contributed positively with EBITDA rising 16% to Rs 633 crores for the full year.

Meanwhile, the strong performance reflects successful cost management and operational efficiency improvements across Hindalco's integrated aluminium operations. The company secured the Meenakshi coal mines with annual capacity of 12 million tonnes, boosting resource securitization and strengthening its cost competitiveness. Lower input costs, particularly coal and power expenses, significantly improved profitability margins throughout FY25.

Copper Business Achieves Record Performance Levels

However, Hindalco's copper business also delivered outstanding results with record EBITDA of Rs 3,025 crores, up 16% from the previous year, backed by improved volumes and higher realizations. Domestic Copper Rod sales crossed 100 KT for the first time, demonstrating strong market demand for value-added copper products. The copper business benefited from robust domestic sales and higher by-product realizations throughout the financial year.

Therefore, the integrated approach across both aluminium and copper operations created synergistic benefits that enhanced overall profitability. Hindalco's focus on value-added products in both segments supported premium pricing while maintaining strong volume growth. The company's strategic investments in expanding copper production capacity positioned it well to capture growing domestic demand.

Strong Financial Metrics Support Future Growth Plans

Furthermore, Hindalco improved its financial strength significantly during FY25, reducing its consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio to 1.06x from 1.21x a year earlier. FY25 Consolidated PAT reached Rs 16,002 crores, up 58%, while Q4 consolidated PAT increased to Rs 5,284 crores, up 66% over the prior year period. These strong cash generation capabilities support the company's ambitious expansion plans across both aluminium and copper segments.

As a result, Hindalco announced capital expenditure targets of Rs 7,500-8,000 crores for the current fiscal year to fund strategic growth initiatives including alumina refinery expansion, aluminium smelter capacity additions, and copper smelter expansion projects. The company's subsidiary Novelis also delivered resilient performance with strong shipments in beverage packaging applications, contributing $683 million in net income, up 14% over the previous year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hindalco's record FY25 performance exemplifies how integrated metals producers can leverage operational excellence and strategic resource security to achieve exceptional financial results, particularly when supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and lower input costs. The company's success in both aluminium and copper segments demonstrates the value of diversified metals portfolio approach, while strong cash generation provides solid foundation for the ambitious growth investments planned across both business segments.

Copper Trade’s Future Rests on Traders Amid Supply Chain Strains

Mercuria Energy Trading

Growing Global Demand, Concentrate Deficit, and Strategic Investments Highlight Traders’ Rising Influence in Copper Markets

The role of traders in the global copper market is becoming increasingly critical, especially as supply chain disruptions deepen. At the 2025 Mining Indaba in Cape Town, industry experts emphasized that a growing shortage of copper concentrates is driving this trend, despite sufficient metal availability in the short term.

Supply Disruptions and Demand Growth Attract Trading Houses

Copper concentrate deficits are expected to impact the refined copper market more significantly in the coming years. According to Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research at Mercuria Energy Trading, traders will fill essential gaps as disruptions rise and demand accelerates. He stated that countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are taking active steps to trade minerals directly, enhancing regional participation in the global market.

Mercuria’s December agreement with Zambia to launch a metals trading arm exemplifies how nations are seeking to gain value from local copper production. Zambia, one of Africa’s largest copper producers, aims to ramp up output to 3 million tonnes by 2030. Snowdon stressed that similar strategic partnerships will bring expertise and foster industry growth.

Gulf and Private Equity Eye Strategic Copper Assets

Beyond Africa, interest is growing from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which are diversifying away from fossil fuels. Even small-scale investments in copper assets by these nations reflect a broader shift towards clean energy supply chains, where copper plays a pivotal role. Despite this enthusiasm, Graeme Train of Trafigura noted that private equity involvement remains relatively nascent, though capital flow has increased in recent years.

Geopolitical Risks Pose Challenges for Copper Investment

While traders are positioned to benefit from increasing market complexities, global political tensions could threaten progress. Panellists warned that the ongoing US-China trade conflict, combined with rising tariffs and inflation risks, could stall key copper projects. Notably, about 75% of global copper ventures involve Chinese equity, raising vulnerability amid geopolitical strain.

In conclusion, traders will likely become central to navigating the copper market's evolving landscape. Their ability to manage risk, bridge supply chain gaps, and mobilize capital will define the next phase of copper’s global trade dynamics.

Vedanta Expands Metals Exploration Across India to Secure Critical Minerals

Vedanta

Multi-state exploration strengthens Vedanta’s role in clean energy supply chains

Vedanta expands metals exploration across six Indian states in a strategic push to secure critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies. The company is targeting copper, nickel, cobalt, vanadium, tungsten, chromium, and PGEs in regions including Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh. This initiative aligns with India’s growing focus on mineral self-sufficiency and value chain localization.

Auction wins and value-added aluminum investment boost vertical integration

In the fourth round of India’s critical mineral auctions, Vedanta secured four mineral blocks. These include vanadium and graphite in Arunachal Pradesh, and a polymetallic block with cobalt, manganese, and iron in Karnataka. Its subsidiary Hindustan Zinc (HZL) also won two tungsten blocks in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Alongside exploration, Vedanta is expanding downstream capabilities—targeting over 90% value-added aluminum output through investments in billets, foundry alloys, rolled products, and wire rods.

Zinc alloy innovation and aluminum capex signal industrial diversification

HZL is diversifying zinc use cases beyond steel galvanization by launching a 30,000-tonne zinc alloy facility. Meanwhile, Vedanta is investing $1.5 billion to expand aluminum smelting and rolling capacity, including a major upgrade at its Odisha plant. These developments aim to deepen Vedanta’s footprint in aerospace, defense, solar, EVs, and battery infrastructure—critical to India's low-carbon ambitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vedanta’s aggressive critical mineral exploration and aluminum investments reflect India’s urgent drive to localize energy transition supply chains. With a diversified portfolio and state-backed auction wins, Vedanta is positioning itself as a key pillar in India's clean energy industrial ecosystem.

Riverspan United Titanium acquisition targets growth in titanium fasteners

United Titanium

The Riverspan United Titanium acquisition signals fresh private equity interest in specialty metal fasteners. The Riverspan United Titanium acquisition gives the Ohio-based titanium fastener maker new strategic, operational and financial backing. As a result, the Riverspan United Titanium acquisition positions the company to chase market share and accelerate product development across high-spec end markets.

Riverspan United Titanium acquisition brings new capital and scale ambitions

The deal sees Chicago-based private equity firm Riverspan Partners acquire United Titanium for an undisclosed sum. United Titanium produces fasteners from titanium, zirconium and other specialty metals for demanding applications. Therefore, Riverspan’s capital and management support should help expand capacity, shorten lead times and deepen customer coverage.

Riverspan says it will provide “strategic, operational and financial support” to United Titanium. This language typically implies investments in manufacturing systems, sales channels and possibly bolt-on acquisitions. However, success will depend on balancing growth initiatives with the strict quality controls required in aerospace, medical and defense supply chains.

Titanium fastener specialist positioned across critical end markets

United Titanium’s product portfolio spans bolts, screws, nuts, washers, fittings and custom machined parts. It also supplies mill products in a range of titanium and zirconium alloys. This breadth gives the Riverspan United Titanium acquisition exposure to multiple high-value sectors.

Key end markets include defense, commercial aerospace, medical devices and broader industrial applications. Meanwhile, secular trends such as aircraft lightweighting, corrosion-resistant chemical equipment and high-performance medical implants all favour titanium fasteners. Therefore, United Titanium sits at the intersection of critical materials and regulated, long-cycle industries.

By adding private equity backing, the Riverspan United Titanium acquisition could support investments in new alloys, coatings and digital traceability. These upgrades would help meet tightening specifications from OEMs and regulators, while improving differentiation against lower-cost commodity fastener producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This transaction underlines how specialist titanium and zirconium fastener makers are attracting focused private equity capital. If Riverspan can scale United Titanium without diluting quality, the platform could become a more aggressive consolidator in niche aerospace and medical fasteners. Market participants should watch for capacity expansions, new certifications and potential M&A moves that signal the next phase of this growth story.

PGM Demand from Hydrogen Sector to Grow in 2025, But at a Slower Pace

PGM

The hydrogen industry’s demand for platinum group metals (PGMs), particularly platinum and iridium, is set to increase in 2025, though at a slower rate than previously anticipated due to delays in hydrogen project development.

According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), demand for platinum in hydrogen applications surged by 123% year-on-year in 2023, albeit from a small base. A further 32% increase is expected in 2025 as proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers and hydrogen fuel cells continue to drive PGM consumption. This new demand segment could help offset the declining use of PGMs in autocatalysts as the automotive sector transitions away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

Hydrogen Economy’s Impact on PGM Market

Hydrogen-related demand for platinum, iridium, and ruthenium is also expected to support palladium demand, despite palladium not being directly used in hydrogen applications. As hydrogen-sector platinum demand rises, more palladium will be substituted for platinum in ICE vehicles, thereby increasing automotive palladium demand and lifting overall PGM prices.

The WPIC projects that 11% of global platinum demand will come from hydrogen applications by 2030, totaling 900,000 ounces (oz). By 2040, hydrogen energy production is expected to be the largest end-market for platinum, with projected demand reaching 3.5 million oz.

Hydrogen Investments and Policy Support Growing

Despite slow project development, global hydrogen investments have exceeded $300 billion through 2030, with 61 governments adopting national hydrogen strategies as of 2024.

According to Heraeus Precious Metals Germany head of trading Dominik Sperzel, declining costs and technological advancements will strengthen the hydrogen economy’s long-term viability.

The EU is actively supporting hydrogen infrastructure, having allocated over €100 million for hydrogen refueling stations across seven EU countries, including Poland. Additionally, in May 2024, the EU adopted its hydrogen and gas decarbonization package, creating a regulatory framework for dedicated hydrogen infrastructure.

In July 2024, the Hydrogen Council reported that six European hydrogen projects reached final investment decisions (FID). Globally, hydrogen projects reaching FID have increased sevenfold since 2020, from 102 committed projects to 434 in 2024.

Challenges Remain Despite Positive Outlook

While the long-term outlook for PGM demand remains strong, challenges persist. Many hydrogen projects lack financing, and infrastructure limitations have slowed development. Additionally, while hydrogen subsidies have grown from $50 billion to $300 billion since 2022, actual fund disbursement only began in mid-2024, slowing project acceleration.

Despite these hurdles, WPIC research director Edward Sterck remains optimistic, stating, "Now that subsidies are beginning to flow, development will accelerate quickly, driving consumer demand for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)."

Argentina RIGI lithium project approval: Galan’s HMW secures $217mn under incentives

Galan Lithium

Argentina RIGI lithium project approval moved forward as Galan Lithium won the green light for Hombre Muerto West. Phase one secures $217mn under the program’s incentives. The brine project sits in Catamarca, a core Argentine lithium basin. Argentina RIGI lithium project approval underscores policy support for battery materials growth.

What the approval covers

Galan plans 4,000 t/yr LCE, with potential to lift output to 5,400 t/yr. The final product will be lithium chloride concentrate for battery production. RIGI reduces the corporate tax rate to 25pc and waives trade duties. It also eases currency rules and guarantees 30 years of legal stability. Therefore, Argentina RIGI lithium project approval improves bankability for new brine investments.

Winners and exclusions under RIGI

Rio Tinto’s Rincon won approval in May, targeting 60,000 t/yr by decade’s end. Planned investments approach $2.7bn for that project. However, the ministry rejected Ganfeng’s Mariana application, as the mine was inaugurated last year. Beyond mining, RIGI has supported a solar project, an oil pipeline, FLNG and a steel mill.

Argentina produced 18,000t of lithium last year, ranking fourth globally. Reserves total 4mn t, and resources stand at 23mn t. As a result, Argentina RIGI lithium project approval complements a deep pipeline of salars. Investors should watch ramp timing, permitting steps, and downstream offtake execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

RIGI’s incentives directly target project finance risks for brine developers. Galan’s phased plan is modest yet catalytic for Catamarca. Execution on product quality and logistics will determine commercial momentum.

First Quantum Anticipates Growth in Copper and Nickel Production

First Quantum

Stable Output in 2025 with Increase Expected by 2027

Canadian mining giant First Quantum has released projections for its copper and nickel production over the next few years, signaling stability in 2025 followed by notable increases in 2026 and 2027. Despite a downturn in production in 2024, the company is optimistic about its future output.

Detailed Production Forecasts and Strategic Investments

For 2025, First Quantum expects copper production to range between 380,000 and 440,000 metric tonnes, with forecasts rising to 390,000-450,000 tonnes in 2026, and reaching 430,000-490,000 tonnes in 2027. Nickel production is also projected to increase, with the company anticipating output of 15,000-25,000 tonnes in 2025, and stabilizing at 30,000-40,000 tonnes for 2026 and 2027.

Expansion Plans and Operational Challenges

The company plans significant capital investments, including $120 million for the expansion of smelter and tailings facilities at its Kansanshi operations and $115 million for mineral rights at the La Granja project within the next three years. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Cobre Panama mine poses challenges, with 121,000 dry metric tonnes of copper concentrate currently stalled on site pending shipping approval from the Panamanian government.

Liyuan Begins Phase 2 Expansion of Indonesian LFP Production Plant

Changzhou Liyuan

Chinese Lithium Iron Phosphate Producer Expands Capacity to Meet Growing Global Demand

Chinese lithium iron phosphate (LFP) producer Changzhou Liyuan has officially started building Phase 2 of its production plant in Indonesia. The second phase of the plant, with a designed capacity of 90,000 tonnes per year (t/yr), aims to strengthen Liyuan's position in the growing global LFP market. However, specific details about the construction period and expected launch date have yet to be disclosed.

This expansion follows the successful completion of the first phase, which began in July 2023 and had a capacity of 30,000 t/yr. The first batch of LFP material is expected to be produced in January 2025. Located in the Kendal Industrial Park in Central Java, Indonesia, this plant represents a significant step in China’s strategic investment in overseas battery material production.

Strategic Investment in Overseas Capacity

Liyuan's plant in Indonesia is the first overseas LFP production project by a Chinese company with a capacity exceeding 10,000 t/yr. This milestone reflects China's growing commitment to securing international battery feedstock resources. While many Chinese investments in Indonesia have historically focused on primary materials or intermediates, this project marks a shift toward direct investment in battery materials, essential for the global electric vehicle (EV) market.

The expansion also highlights the broader trend of Chinese battery firms investing heavily in overseas manufacturing capacity. These investments are seen as crucial for diversifying supply chains and mitigating geopolitical risks, ensuring a stable supply of LFP materials amidst increasing global demand.

Rising Demand for LFP in the Power Battery Market

LFP's popularity in the power battery market has surged due to its lower manufacturing costs and enhanced safety compared to other battery chemistries. As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, LFP's market share is expected to grow even further, with Liyuan's expanded capacity playing a key role in meeting this demand.

In conclusion, Liyuan’s Phase 2 expansion in Indonesia marks a strategic move to enhance global production capacity and supply chain diversification. With the growing importance of LFP in the energy transition, this project is a significant step forward for both Liyuan and China’s battery material supply chain.