Cochilco Copper Outlook 2025–2026: Supply Growth Meets Steady Demand

Cochilco

Supply edges higher as project pipeline improves

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 signals modest mine growth. Global mine supply rises 0.5% in 2025 to 22.71mn t. Disruptions in the DRC, Indonesia, and Panama limit gains. However, 2026 supply increases 3.2% to 23.43mn t. New projects in Peru, Zambia, and Canada drive output. Additional lifts come from Indonesia, Mongolia, Canada, and Russia. Chile grows 1.5% in 2025 to 5.58mn t. Chile then advances 3% in 2026 to 5.75mn t. This supports the Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 narrative of gradual normalization.

Demand expands across Asia and the US

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 also highlights resilient consumption. Global refined use gains 2.3% in 2025 to 26.38mn t. Demand then rises 2.4% in 2026 to 27mn t. China remains pivotal at 15.7mn t in 2025. China inches to 15.8mn t in 2026. Renewables and storage projects underpin Chinese demand. India accelerates with 7.5% growth in 2025. India grows 8.5% in 2026 on industrialization and infrastructure. The US adds support through manufacturing and grid investment. Therefore, secular demand remains intact despite cyclical noise.

Market balance stays technically in surplus. Cochilco sees a 51,000t surplus in 2025. The 2026 surplus reaches 65,000t. Last year posted a 67,000t surplus. Therefore, balance is fragile but not tight. Temporary disruptions could erase the cushion. Prices may face mild pressure from surplus. However, structural demand and geopolitics provide support. Cochilco keeps its price view at $9,480/t for 2025–2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cochilco’s base case implies a soft surplus with limited slack. Execution at new mines will matter more than headlines. Watch Indian demand and concentrate availability to gauge upside risk.

Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast as supply tightens

Cochilco

Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast after lower-than-expected production tightened supply. Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast to $4.45/lb for 2025 and $4.55/lb for 2026. The prior forecast was $4.30/lb for both years.

Tighter supply supports the new price path into 2026. Aurora Williams cited lower supply, expected rate cuts, and a weaker dollar. Meanwhile, geopolitical and commercial uncertainty keeps risk premiums elevated.

Tight supply and weaker scrap flows reshape the 2025-26 balance

Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast as scrap availability falls and incidents disrupt output. The commission expects supply growth to lag demand growth in 2026. Therefore, the market can stay tight even with higher mine production.

Global production is forecast to rise 3.9% to 23.8mn t in 2026. Production is expected at 22.9mn t this year. However, the supply increase may not keep pace with consumption.

Refined copper deficit outlook raises stakes for producers and buyers

Cochilco forecasts a global refined copper deficit of 165,000t in 2026. It expects supply growth of 1.4% versus demand growth of 2.1%. Therefore, smelters and fabricators may face tighter sourcing conditions.

Chile produced 3.92mn t in January–September. Cochilco expects output to reach 5.5mn t by year-end. It projects 5.6mn t in 2026, up 2.5%.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Higher price decks help new copper projects clear financing hurdles. Meanwhile, any delay in supply growth can magnify deficits quickly. Therefore, buyers should lock in volumes and extend hedging into 2026.

Cochilco Predicts Expanding Lithium Surplus Amid Slowing Demand in China and US

Cochilco

Global Lithium Surplus Set to Increase by 58% in 2025

The global lithium surplus will grow significantly in 2025 due to weaker-than-expected demand in China and the United States. According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), lithium production will exceed demand by 141,000 metric tons (LCE) in 2025, compared to 89,000 metric tons in 2024.

Lithium Supply Growth Outpaces Demand

Cochilco projects global lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) demand to rise 23% to 1.39 million metric tons in 2025. However, supply is expected to increase by 26% to 1.54 million metric tons, further widening the surplus. The slowdown in China’s EV sector and slower-than-expected growth in the US lithium market are key contributors to this imbalance.

Price Forecast and Market Adjustments

Cochilco forecasts lithium carbonate prices to average $11,399 per metric ton (CIF Asia) in 2025, based on Consensus Forecast's November 2024 report. Despite growing supply, some lithium producers have announced supply cuts to offset declining prices and prevent market oversupply.

Chile Copper Mining Power Demand to Surge by 2034

Chile Copper

Rising Energy Needs Driven by Processing Shifts

Chile’s copper mining sector will face a sharp rise in power demand over the next decade. According to Cochilco, the state copper commission, the industry will require 32.5TWh of electricity in 2034, up 21% from 26.9TWh in 2024. In contrast, copper production will only expand by 5.6% to reach 5.7mn tonnes in the same period. The mismatch highlights the growing energy intensity of mining operations as ore grades decline.

A higher proportion of copper concentrate production and the increased use of desalinated seawater will drive demand. Cochilco estimates copper concentration will consume 18.7TWh in 2034, or 58% of the sector’s total power. Meanwhile, desalination and pumping water to arid northern mines will account for 5.4TWh, representing 17% of consumption.

Transition to Renewables Amid Rising Costs

Chile’s copper industry has already shifted much of its energy base toward renewables. By 2024, renewables represented 74% of the sector’s electricity use, with contracts steadily renegotiated away from fossil fuels. Cochilco forecasts this share will rise to 78% by 2026. Despite this progress, the overall growth in electricity demand underscores potential cost pressures and supply security challenges for producers.

Copper mining already accounts for one-third of Chile’s total power consumption, and the anticipated rise may stress the country’s grid capacity. Therefore, balancing sustainable energy supply with rising industrial needs will be central to maintaining Chile’s global copper dominance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper sector is entering an era where energy demand grows faster than metal output. The transition to cleaner power sources is vital, but rising electricity costs and desalination needs will weigh on margins. Global buyers of copper should expect long-term pricing influenced not only by supply-demand balances but also by the escalating energy footprint of mining operations.

Chile to Boost Global Copper Production Share by 2034

Chile Copper

Strategic Mining Investments Propel Growth

Chile is poised to increase its stake in the global copper market significantly, with the Chilean copper commission, Cochilco, projecting that the country will enhance its share from 24% in 2023 to 27% by 2034. This growth is anticipated to come from new mining projects and expansions in the sector.

Rising Production and Investment Trends

According to Cochilco's recent forecast, Chile will see a steady increase in copper production, achieving a peak of 6.07 million tonnes by 2027. The forecasted growth represents a 5.6% increase annually over the next decade, culminating in a production of 5.54 million tonnes by 2034, up from 5.25 million tonnes in 2024. This expansion is supported by Chile’s extensive mining investment portfolio, which includes significant initiatives like the proposed $7.5 billion expansion of the El Abra mine, a collaborative effort between the U.S. firm Freeport-McMoran and Chile's state copper company, Codelco.

Shift in Production Dynamics

Cochilco’s report also highlights a shift towards the production of copper concentrates, which are expected to constitute 88% of Chile’s total copper output by 2034, up from 80% in 2024. This change is due to a decline in copper cathode output, driven by the depletion of oxide deposits. Additionally, global copper production is projected to reach a peak of over 25 million tonnes in 2026, before a gradual decline to around 20 million tonnes by 2034.

Chile Projects $83.2 Billion in Mining Investments Through 2033

Chile mining

Chile is poised to solidify its position as a global mining powerhouse with projected investments of $83.2 billion spanning 2024-2033.

Massive Investments in Mining Projects

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) unveiled its latest study highlighting a significant increase in mining investments for the coming decade. The forecast includes 51 mining projects, up from 49 in the previous study for 2023-2032, which projected $65.7 billion in investments. This growth signals Chile's commitment to bolstering its mining sector and enhancing its global competitiveness.

Key players in Chile's mining expansion include major domestic entities like El Abra, Antofagasta, and state-run copper miner Codelco, which collectively account for 64.5% of the total investment. International stakeholders are also playing a vital role:

• Canadian companies such as Teck, Capstone Copper, Los Andes Copper, and Kinross will represent approximately 10% of investments.
• Japanese corporations, including Sumitomo Metals and Mitsubishi Corp, will contribute 5.7%.
• Australian firms, spearheaded by BHP Billiton, will make up 5.2%.

Copper Production and Diversification

The influx of capital is projected to increase Chile’s copper production capacity by 2.23 million metric tonnes annually, adding to the 5 million tonnes produced in 2023, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). This aligns with Chile’s status as the world’s largest copper producer.

Additionally, $4.7 billion of the investments will be allocated to 15 projects focusing on "metals other than copper," including lithium and gold. Chile already ranks as the world's second-largest producer of lithium, a critical material for batteries and renewable energy storage.

Driving Forces Behind the Investment Surge

This investment boom highlights Chile’s strategic approach to capitalizing on the global demand for essential minerals. Increased copper production will cater to infrastructure and green energy projects worldwide, while lithium investments target the surging electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.

Cochilco’s report emphasizes the country’s appeal to global mining giants and underscores Chile’s robust regulatory framework and resource-rich landscape as key factors driving foreign investment.

Stagnation in Copper Production at Codelco Amidst Broader Chilean Growth

Codelco

In a surprising turn of events, Codelco, the state-run mining giant of Chile, reported no change in its copper production for October this year, according to the latest data from the Chilean copper commission, Cochilco. Despite this stagnation, overall copper production within Chile showcased a noticeable increase, highlighting a divergent trend between the national giant and other producers.

Codelco's Performance: A Closer Look

In detail, Codelco's five active copper mines collectively maintained their output at 127,900 metric tonnes in October, mirroring the production levels of October 2023. This static performance is part of a broader context where Codelco has seen a year-to-date production decrease of 4.5%, with a total of 1.115 million tonnes produced so far, compared to the previous year.

Chile's Broader Copper Market

Contrasting with Codelco’s flat output, BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, experienced a significant production boost. It reported a 22% increase, with production reaching 108,000 tonnes in October. This spike contributed substantially to Chile's total copper production, which increased by 6.35% to 488,900 tonnes compared to the same month last year.

The divergence in production trends highlights the varying operational efficiencies and possibly differing geological challenges faced by these entities. This scenario paints a complex picture of Chile's copper sector, where not all players are experiencing growth uniformly.

Chile Lithium Exports Remain Flat in 1Q Despite Asian Rebound

Chile Lithium

European Slowdown Offsets March Recovery

Chile’s lithium exports stayed flat in the first quarter of 2025, totaling 67,200 metric tonnes of lithium salts. This matched the previous quarter, though it was 11.2% higher than the same period in 2024.

The stagnation stemmed from weak February volumes caused by soft demand in Europe and oversupply in China. LCE exports in February plunged 25% below the six-month average to 16,700t amid China’s ample inventories.

However, March brought a rebound as Asian buying resumed. Chile exported 23,000t in March alone, up 37% from February levels.

Global Trade Dynamics Reshape Demand Landscape

Belgium, once a key buyer, cut its imports by 67% year-on-year. This followed Umicore’s decision to halve cathode output in 2025 due to a 30% drop in battery material sales.

Meanwhile, China reclaimed its role as the dominant importer, accounting for 72% of Chilean lithium exports. South Korea also boosted its intake by 21%, importing 11,400t in the quarter — partly filling the gap left by Europe.

With US tariffs on Chinese battery packs nearing 200%, South Korea and Japan may gain favor in the US supply chain. This shift could raise their demand for Chilean lithium in coming months.

Uncertainty Clouds Outlook Despite Rising Production Targets

Chile aims to produce 305,000t of LCE in 2025, up 16% from last year, according to Cochilco. Yet, current export volumes suggest a 36,000t shortfall unless demand surges later this year.

The evolving global trade policy — especially under the Trump administration — may further disrupt Chile’s lithium trade. Producers face the challenge of aligning rising production with increasingly fragmented global demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The flat start to 2025 shows how vulnerable Chile’s lithium sector is to global policy shifts and EV market volatility. While Asia provides a buffer, Europe’s retreat and US tariffs create strategic uncertainty. Producers like SQM and Albemarle must now navigate not just markets — but geopolitics.

Codelco and Anglo American Unite to Boost Chilean Copper Output

Codelco

Andina and Los Bronces to Jointly Target 1 Million Tonnes by 2030s

Strategic Collaboration Taps 60mn t of Contained Copper in the Andes

Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper giant, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Anglo American’s 50.1%-owned AAS subsidiary to integrate operations at the Andina and Los Bronces mines. This joint strategy will target a combined production increase of 120,000 tonnes of fine copper per year from 2030 through 2051.

Ambitious Output Plan Sets 2030s Benchmark

According to Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad, the collaboration lays a clear pathway to producing over 1 million tonnes of copper annually by the early 2030s, representing a 30% increase from current output. This positions both firms as key players in meeting the world's growing copper demand driven by energy transition and electrification.

Together, Los Bronces and Andina account for 60 million tonnes of contained copper, or roughly 2% of global copper resources and reserves, underscoring the strategic weight of the partnership.

Staggered Output Performance Precedes Consolidation

In 2023, Los Bronces produced 172,000 tonnes, marking a 20.4% drop following a temporary care and maintenance phase starting in July. Meanwhile, Andina produced 181,600 tonnes, a 10% increase year-over-year, according to Chile’s Cochilco.

Despite these fluctuations, the integration plan remains on track. The companies expect to sign a definitive operational agreement in the second half of 2025, with current mine operations continuing uninterrupted until then.

This deal marks a significant shift toward operational consolidation in one of the world’s richest copper belts. It aims to improve efficiency, secure long-term output, and reinforce Chile’s dominance in the global copper market amid rising supply chain concerns.

ADB Loan for Reko Diq Copper Project Signals New Phase for Pakistan

ADB Pakistan

ADB loan for Reko Diq copper project secures $300mn to accelerate mine delivery and unlock critical minerals. The ADB loan for Reko Diq copper project includes a partial credit guarantee for Balochistan’s equity. Therefore, the ADB loan for Reko Diq copper project underpins what may be Pakistan’s largest-ever FDI.

Scale, timeline, and ownership structure

Reko Diq will be the world’s fifth-largest copper mine. Phase one targets 800,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. Barrick will build and operate the mine. Operations are planned for at least 37 years. First concentrate is expected in 2028. RMDC is a joint venture led by Barrick at 50%. Balochistan holds 25%, and federal state firms hold 25%. The ADB also offers a $110mn partial credit guarantee.

Funding mix and strategic context

Total phase-one capex is about $3bn. Barrick plans $1.4bn–$1.7bn in equity. The IFC plans $400mn in loans plus a $300mn A-loan. Moreover, ADB backs Reko Diq under its new critical minerals value chain approach. The program targets clean energy and digital technologies. Global copper demand remains firm on energy transition needs. Cochilco sees consumption at 26.38mn t this year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Reko Diq’s financing breadth reduces execution risk while anchoring Pakistan’s role in copper supply. Watch project ramp sequencing, concentrate offtake, and regional logistics to verify timelines and cost discipline as 2028 approaches.

Surge in Copper Production: Codelco and BHP Lead the Way

Codelco

A Closer Look at November's Copper Production Increases

Chile's premier state-run enterprise, Codelco, along with the Australian mining giant BHP's Escondida mine, have reported significant increases in their copper production for November. This development could signal a robust period for the metal's market moving forward.

Significant Gains Amidst Global Challenges

In a detailed report from the Chilean copper commission Cochilco, it is noted that Codelco's production for November reached 133,600 tons. This figure represents a remarkable 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023, marking the highest output observed last year. Despite facing production challenges earlier in the year, Codelco has evidently managed a vigorous recovery in the latter half.

On the other hand, BHP's Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, produced 108,200 tons of copper in November alone, up by 28% from the previous year. This substantial growth underscores Escondida's critical role in the global copper market.

Variance Among Competitors

While Codelco and BHP have enjoyed production boosts, not all industry players saw the same success. The Collahuasi mine, which is a joint venture between Anglo American, Glencore, and Japan's Collahuasi Resources, experienced a downturn. The mine's output declined by nearly 24% year-on-year, totaling only 36,700 tons in November.

Despite these mixed results, the overall copper production in Chile from January to November stood at approximately 4.94 million tons, marking a 3.9% increase over the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to the strong performances of both Escondida and Codelco during the latter half of the year.