AI Growth Boosts Electronics Metal Demand, But Broader Semiconductor Market Faces Weak Recovery

AI

The explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is undoubtedly driving demand for specific electronic metals, but the broader electronics market, particularly the semiconductor sector, is struggling with a slower-than-expected recovery. As we approach 2025, the demand outlook remains mixed, despite AI's role in pushing innovation and technological expansion.

AI Fuels Electronics Demand

This year, AI technologies, especially AI-powered chatbots and smartphones, gained widespread traction. Companies like Apple and Samsung have been rolling out their own AI systems, with Apple’s “Apple Intelligence” software joining Samsung’s Galaxy AI. At the same time, OpenAI's ChatGPT reached 200 million active weekly users, doubling from the previous year. These developments indicate the mainstreaming of AI tools in everyday life.

The continued growth of AI will be supported by the physical expansion of data centres and the increased demand for hardware capable of handling AI's vast data processing needs. This translates into higher demand for specialty materials that make up critical electronic components. As data centres require more energy-efficient solutions to process increasing data volumes, materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and indium phosphide (InP) will play a central role.

Gallium Nitride (GaN) and Indium Phosphide (InP) Boosted by AI Expansion

As AI technologies scale, the energy demands of data centres will rise significantly. According to research from Goldman Sachs, the data centre expansion needed to support AI could increase electricity consumption by up to 160% by 2030. This will likely spur greater demand for GaN-based power electronics, which are more energy-efficient than traditional silicon electronics. GaN-based devices generate less heat and can operate at higher temperatures, making them ideal for data centres where cooling accounts for up to 40% of energy consumption.

Another compound semiconductor, indium phosphide (InP), is expected to gain traction as well. InP is already used in data and telecom transceivers and is poised to play a key role in the future of 6G wireless and satellite communications networks. InP-based photonic integrated circuits enable faster, more energy-efficient data transfers, making them essential for the high-speed data transfers required by AI clusters in data centres. This has garnered attention from the U.S. government, with the CHIPS Act supporting multiple InP-related projects this year.

Wider Electronics Demand Faces Challenges

Despite the promising outlook for AI-driven growth in specific sectors, the broader semiconductor market is still grappling with weaker-than-expected recovery. Materion, a U.S.-based producer of specialty materials for electronics, reported slower-than-expected semiconductor recovery in its third-quarter results. The company, which manufactures materials for chip manufacturing, including tantalum sputtering targets and antimony chemicals, noted that while there is strong demand for high-performance chips used in computing, the market for 2025 remains uncertain.

The situation was mirrored by ASML, a major chip equipment manufacturer, which lowered its revenue forecast for 2025 from €30-40 billion to €30-35 billion. ASML highlighted that semiconductor manufacturers are curbing capacity expansions due to the ongoing weakness in chip demand recovery.

Semiconductor Shipments and Market Outlook

The global semiconductor industry witnessed a peak in silicon wafer shipments in 2022, driven by supply shortages and high demand for consumer electronics during the pandemic. However, shipments of silicon wafers—a key indicator of chip production—are expected to drop from 14,565 million square inches (MSI) in 2022 to 12,174 MSI in 2024. Although global silicon wafer shipments are projected to rise to 13,328 MSI in 2025, the recovery expected in 2024 has largely failed to materialize, indicating continued challenges in the broader electronics market.

Conclusion

The demand for electronic metals, particularly those used in AI and data centre technologies, is on the rise. However, the semiconductor sector as a whole is still experiencing a slow recovery, with uncertainty surrounding the broader electronics market heading into 2025. While AI's growth continues to offer opportunities for companies involved in the production of GaN and InP-based components, the overall demand picture for electronics remains mixed, with slower-than-expected recovery from the pandemic-induced boom.

Indium Phosphide Exports Become China’s New Chokepoint in AI Data Centre Supply Chain

AI data centre

Indium phosphide exports have become a strategic pressure point in the global AI data centre supply chain as China’s licensing controls delay shipments of a material essential for high-speed optical chips. The restrictions are exposing a new vulnerability in AI infrastructure: the physical materials behind silicon photonics and optical interconnects.

The issue has moved quickly from a specialist semiconductor concern to a high-level trade and industrial policy problem. Coherent, a key optical components supplier backed by Nvidia, warned in early May that indium phosphide shortages were already affecting the market. Its chief executive then joined a US business delegation to China as companies sought relief from export licence delays.

Indium phosphide exports matter because AI data centres are moving beyond copper-based interconnects. As AI workloads grow, hyperscalers need faster, lower-latency and more energy-efficient data transmission between processors, accelerators, switches and optical modules. Indium phosphide is one of the core materials enabling that shift.

The material is used in high-speed optical chips, lasers, detectors and photonic components. These devices support the optical links that move huge volumes of data across AI clusters. Without reliable indium phosphide substrates and wafers, the expansion of advanced AI data centre networks could slow.

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that critical materials policy is becoming more granular. Beijing no longer needs to restrict only rare earths or finished technology products. It can also influence upstream compounds, substrates and wafers that determine whether advanced semiconductor supply chains can scale.

Export Controls Expose a Hidden Bottleneck in Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics has become a critical technology for AI infrastructure because it allows data to move through light rather than electrical signals. This reduces energy use per bit and supports the bandwidth required by large AI systems.

But silicon photonics is not only a silicon story. The most advanced optical systems often require compound semiconductor materials such as indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride and germanium-based compounds. Indium phosphide is especially important for lasers and high-speed optical devices.

This creates a difficult supply chain problem. AI companies, hyperscalers and chipmakers are racing to scale optical modules, but one of the key substrate materials remains highly concentrated. China is the world’s largest indium producer, accounting for about 70% of global output in 2024.

That concentration became more serious after China introduced export restrictions on indium phosphide in February 2025. Since then, licence delays have created backlogs for companies that manufacture or source InP substrates from China.

AXT, one of the world’s largest indium phosphide substrate producers and a major supplier to Coherent, said export permits were its most significant challenge. The company manufactures most of its InP substrates in China and only received its first permits last June. It still faces a large order backlog.

The effect has spread beyond individual suppliers. Coherent, Lumentum, VPEC and LandMark Optoelectronics all sit inside the optical components ecosystem that depends on reliable substrate supply. When permit delays hit upstream InP material, the impact moves through wafers, chips, optical modules and AI data centre equipment.

Prices show the severity of the shortage. Since China introduced export restrictions, the average price of a 6-inch indium phosphide wafer has surged by 250% to about $5,000. That price increase reflects both physical scarcity and the strategic premium attached to non-disrupted supply.

The supply squeeze also comes at a time of aggressive photonics investment. Nvidia announced $2bn investments each in Coherent and Lumentum in March. Marvell Technology also moved into photonics through its acquisition of Celestial AI, reflecting stronger demand for optical technology in AI computing.

These investments show where the industry is heading. AI infrastructure needs optical interconnects to manage power, latency and bandwidth. But China’s indium phosphide controls mean that materials availability could become a gating factor for deployment.

Companies are trying to respond. Coherent plans to double its InP wafer capacity at its Texas plant this year and more than double it again by the end of 2027. US photonics firms are also seeking supply from non-Chinese producers such as Sumitomo Electric Industries.

However, capacity additions are slow. New substrate plants can take two to three years to bring online. Qualification cycles are also long because optical chipmakers cannot easily switch substrate suppliers without testing performance, reliability and consistency.

This makes the shortage difficult to solve quickly. Even if new capacity is announced, it may not arrive fast enough to meet near-term AI data centre demand. Meanwhile, many non-China producers already consume part of their own output internally, reducing the amount available to the broader market.

China’s Materials Chokepoint Strategy Strengthens Domestic Producers

China’s indium phosphide export controls are creating both pressure and opportunity. They restrict global supply, but they also support domestic Chinese substrate producers that are expanding capacity.

Yunnan Germanium, Guangdong Xiandao and Zhuhai Dingtai Xinyuan are among China’s leading domestic InP substrate players. Their role is becoming more important as Beijing uses materials controls to strengthen strategic leverage across semiconductor and AI supply chains.

Yunnan Germanium has already moved to expand. The company announced a 189mn yuan investment in April to raise production capacity to 450,000 single InP wafers annually. Its shipments of InP wafers rose by 74% in 2025, showing fast domestic market growth.

Guangdong Xiandao is also expanding through its subsidiary Guangdong Xianrui. The project is expected to produce 40 t/yr of indium phosphide crystals, which are used as raw material for substrates.

These investments fit a broader pattern. China is not only defending control over upstream critical materials. It is also building downstream processing capacity in higher-value compound semiconductor materials.

However, Chinese producers may not immediately solve the global shortage. Some are still seeking export approvals, and any overseas shipments may be limited. Domestic demand remains a priority, especially as China builds its own AI, optical communications and semiconductor ecosystem.

AXT

Supplier qualification creates another barrier. Companies such as Coherent and Lumentum are unlikely to switch easily from established suppliers. Coherent relies heavily on AXT, while Lumentum sources mainly from Sumitomo and JX Advanced Metals. New suppliers must pass demanding qualification cycles before they can enter critical optical chip supply chains.

This gives China’s export controls a long-lasting effect. Even if alternative suppliers exist, the market cannot instantly redirect demand. The bottleneck is not only production volume. It is qualified, high-quality, customer-approved substrate supply.

The strategic lesson is clear. AI supply chains are not only exposed to advanced chips, GPUs and packaging capacity. They also depend on a deep materials stack that includes indium, phosphorous chemistry, InP crystals, substrates, wafers, lasers, detectors and optical modules.

This is why indium phosphide exports have become so important. AI data centre buildouts need more optical links as clusters grow larger. Copper interconnects face limits in speed, distance and energy consumption. Photonics offers a solution, but only if the materials chain can scale.

For the US and its allies, the response will likely require more than emergency licence negotiations. It will require investment in indium recovery, InP crystal growth, substrate manufacturing, wafer capacity and long-term offtake agreements. It may also require strategic stockpiles for high-purity indium and compound semiconductor substrates.

The issue also strengthens the case for recycling and secondary recovery. Indium is often produced as a by-product, making primary supply difficult to expand quickly. Recovering indium from industrial scrap, displays, semiconductors and related waste streams could become more important if export controls persist.

For AI data centre developers, the risk is timing. Demand for optical modules is accelerating now, while new ex-China capacity may not fully arrive until 2027 or later. That mismatch could raise costs, delay deployments and intensify competition for qualified photonics suppliers.

The market may therefore see a split. Companies with secured InP supply will be better positioned to support hyperscaler demand. Companies exposed to licence delays, qualification bottlenecks or spot-market wafers may face higher costs and delivery risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that the AI race is becoming a materials race. The next bottleneck may not be only GPUs or power supply, but the compound semiconductor substrates needed to move data fast enough inside AI clusters.

Corning Nvidia Optical Connectivity Partnership Expands US AI Infrastructure Supply Chain

Corning

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity plans will expand US manufacturing capacity for the optical systems needed to support artificial intelligence data centres. Corning will build three new manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas as it targets a tenfold increase in optical connectivity output.

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity investment also includes a more than 50% expansion in Corning’s fibre production. The move reflects rising demand for high-speed data movement across AI infrastructure, where advanced optical links are becoming as important as chips themselves.

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity partnership strengthens the domestic supply chain around Nvidia’s AI computing ecosystem. Nvidia chips require high-performance optical fibre connectivity to move data quickly and at scale across large data centre networks.

The agreement also has a strategic materials angle. The fibre-optics industry is the largest US end-user of germanium, making AI data centre buildout increasingly relevant to minor metals demand.

AI Data Centres Drive Optical Connectivity Demand

AI workloads require massive data movement between chips, servers and storage systems. As computing clusters grow, copper-based connections face performance, distance and energy-efficiency limits in some high-speed applications.

Optical connectivity helps solve that problem. It allows data to move faster and across longer distances, supporting the scale required by advanced AI data centres.

Corning’s planned facilities in North Carolina and Texas will increase domestic capacity for these optical systems. That is important because AI infrastructure is becoming a national industrial priority, not only a technology market.

For Nvidia, the partnership supports the physical network behind its chips. AI accelerators create value only when data can move efficiently through the system.

For Corning, the deal gives stronger exposure to one of the fastest-growing infrastructure markets. Optical fibre, cable assemblies and connectivity products are becoming critical components in the AI supply chain.

Germanium Demand Links AI Growth to Critical Materials

The partnership also connects AI infrastructure to germanium demand. Germanium is used in optical fibre production, making fibre expansion relevant to critical minerals and specialty materials markets.

This matters because germanium supply is already strategically sensitive. It is used in fibre optics, infrared systems, semiconductors, defence electronics and solar applications.

If AI data centre construction accelerates, optical fibre demand could strengthen further. That would increase attention on germanium availability, recycling, refining and origin security.

The transaction also includes a financial component. Nvidia has the right to purchase up to 15mn shares of Corning stock at a fixed price of $180/share, as well as a pre-funded warrant to purchase up to 3mn shares for a total price of $500mn.

That structure shows how strategic customers are moving closer to upstream and midstream suppliers. Nvidia is not only buying components. It is helping secure the manufacturing base needed for future AI infrastructure.

For the US, the partnership supports domestic manufacturing around semiconductors, photonics and critical materials. It also reinforces the wider shift toward regionalised supply chains for high-value technology infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Corning-Nvidia partnership shows that AI supply chains are moving beyond chips into optical fibre, photonics and specialty materials. Germanium demand could become a hidden beneficiary as data centres require faster and more resilient optical connectivity.

Asia Semiconductor Demand for AI Data Centres Surges on Regional Infrastructure Expansion

AI

Asia semiconductor demand for AI data centres is accelerating rapidly, driven by generative AI development, regional cloud infrastructure investment, and rising demand for high-bandwidth memory and logic chips. The shift marks a geographic rebalancing in semiconductor orders, which were previously centered on U.S. data centre growth.

AI, HBM, and Logic Chips Drive Semiconductor Orders in Asia

Dutch semiconductor equipment maker BESI reported increased orders from Asian subcontractors in Q1 2025, specifically for AI-related data centre applications. Orders rose 3.3% year-over-year and 8.2% quarter-over-quarter, even as other segments like mobile and automotive remained weak.

AI-centric devices are boosting demand for advanced semiconductor packaging, especially for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) 4 and logic chips. BESI received hybrid bonding orders from two memory producers and additional logic chip orders from an Asian foundry, underscoring regional momentum. Compound semiconductors and minor metals remain essential to meet AI’s performance, efficiency, and optical communication needs.

Chinese data centres, in particular, are preparing for broader adoption of optical technologies and laser detectors as they scale capacity to support domestic AI models like DeepSeek.

China, Singapore, and Malaysia Lead AI Data Centre Build-Out

China is rapidly scaling its AI data centre footprint. GLP, a Singapore-China investment firm, raised ¥2.6bn ($356.7mn) for a Beijing-area data centre and controls 20 data centres with a total capacity of 1.4GW across major regions. This expansion is backed by Chinese policy support for AI, cloud, IoT, and 5G development, with the country’s data centre market forecast to grow at a 38% CAGR through 2029.

Singapore remains southeast Asia’s largest data hub, hosting 1.4GW of capacity with expansion plans. However, regulatory restrictions on power and land usage are slowing growth. Meanwhile, Johor, Malaysia, is emerging as a new hotspot, with projected capacity of 1.6GW—poised to surpass Singapore.

Chinese firms have invested over $10bn in Malaysian data centres since 2019. Companies like ByteDance and Alibaba Cloud are leveraging Malaysia’s semiconductor-friendly environment to bypass U.S. export controls and support international operations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The boom in Asia semiconductor demand for AI data centres signals a decisive shift in global digital infrastructure. As U.S. restrictions reshape supply chains, Asia is emerging as the new battleground for AI-optimized semiconductor and data centre development—anchored by domestic innovation and strategic capital deployment.

AI Drives ICT and Manufacturing Growth in Asia-Pacific: A Look at South Korea and Taiwan

TSMC

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, particularly in the United States, is significantly shaping the electronics and related manufacturing sectors in South Korea and Taiwan. Government data from both countries highlights the importance of AI and its impact on semiconductors, electronics, and other ICT-related exports.

In South Korea, AI demand is offsetting declines in exports to China, showcasing the country's leading role in the global tech supply chain. The latest figures from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (Motie) show a 14.8% increase in ICT exports for November, totaling over $20 billion for the fourth consecutive month. Semiconductors, computers, and peripherals were the major drivers of this growth. Despite this, year-on-year growth showed signs of slowing, dipping from 22% in October to 14.8%. This slowdown was partly attributed to a 2.2% drop in exports to China and Hong Kong, primarily due to waning demand for mobile phones and displays.

Notably, South Korea's semiconductor exports skyrocketed, with a 30.3% rise year-on-year, reaching $12.5 billion. Exports to the United States surged by nearly 110%, driven by the increasing need for server equipment and data centers fueled by AI systems. These advancements in AI are rapidly driving the need for upgraded infrastructure, such as high-performance servers and data centers, essential for processing the vast amounts of data generated by AI algorithms.

South Korea’s semiconductor industry is globally influential, with giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the forefront, along with smaller players such as DB HiTek and Hana Micron. As the world’s second-largest semiconductor supplier, South Korea is poised to benefit as AI continues to push demand for microchips and computing hardware to new heights.

Taiwan's Semiconductor Boom Fuels AI and Tech Growth

In Taiwan, the demand for semiconductors to support AI infrastructure is also expanding rapidly. Taiwan holds a dominant position in global semiconductor production, accounting for more than 60% of worldwide manufacturing and nearly 90% of advanced semiconductor output. This dominance is largely due to the presence of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry, along with companies like MediaTek, ASE Technology Holdings, and United Microelectronics Corp (UMC).

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs reports a 26.6% year-on-year increase in equipment purchases for the manufacturing sector in Q3, amounting to 462.4 billion New Taiwan Dollars (about $14.2 billion). The surge was largely driven by semiconductor factories expanding to meet the needs of emerging technologies, including AI, high-performance computing, and cloud services. The country's semiconductor production continues to boom, fueling revenue growth in both electronics and information technology industries.

The semiconductor-driven demand for AI technologies in Taiwan is evident, with a significant 46.4% increase in purchases of fixed assets in the electronic components sector, which accounts for 65.1% of total manufacturing purchases. This increase reflects the ongoing investments in AI-related equipment, including the expansion of wafer foundries, packaging, testing, and memory factories. Meanwhile, the machinery and equipment sector also reported a 26.6% rise in year-on-year purchases, largely driven by semiconductor companies' capital expenditures for new factory expansions and production lines.

Despite these gains, other sectors like chemical materials and fertilizers saw a decline in equipment purchases, highlighting the uneven impact of AI across different industries.

As Taiwan continues to be a hub for semiconductor production, the country is expected to see sustained investments in high-end production capacity and the introduction of low-carbon, automated equipment. This is set to drive further advancements in AI technologies and their applications, solidifying Taiwan's position as a key player in the global tech landscape.

Materion AI Demand Lifts Sales as Defence Orders Strengthen

Materion

Materion AI demand helped drive a sharp rise in first-quarter sales as electronics, defence and semiconductor customers increased orders for advanced materials. The US-based producer reported net sales of $549.8mn, up 30.8% from a year earlier.

Materion AI demand was most visible in the company’s electronic materials segment, where sales rose strongly on higher demand from chipmaking applications. Adjusted Ebitda increased by 8.6% to $52.9mn, showing that revenue growth translated into stronger earnings despite mixed performance across business units.

Materion AI demand also reflects a broader industrial trend. Artificial intelligence is increasing demand for logic chips, memory devices, thin-film materials, high-purity chemicals and precision components used across the semiconductor supply chain.

The company’s order backlog rose by more than 20% year on year at the end of the quarter. Defence orders exceeded $60mn, while open requests for quotations surpassed $300mn, indicating continued momentum in aerospace and defence materials.

AI Chips Lift Electronic Materials Sales

Materion’s electronic materials segment delivered the strongest growth in the quarter. Net sales rose to $363.3mn from $224.8mn a year earlier.

The segment produces tantalum sputtering targets for thin-film vapour deposition. These targets are used in semiconductor manufacturing, especially in logic and memory chip production.

Tantalum is important because it supports thin, reliable and high-performance films inside advanced chips. As AI workloads grow, semiconductor manufacturers need more materials that support higher computing power, better efficiency and tighter device architectures.

Materion also produces advanced chemicals and semiconductor materials. These products place the company deeper inside the AI hardware supply chain, where material purity, consistency and qualification are critical.

The sales increase shows that AI is not only driving demand for finished chips or data centre hardware. It is also increasing demand for upstream specialty materials that enable chip fabrication.

This is significant for minor metals and advanced materials suppliers. AI growth is pulling more value toward high-purity inputs, sputtering targets, deposition materials, precision optics and performance alloys.

Defence Backlog Supports Performance Materials Recovery

Materion’s aerospace and defence order rates increased by 50% over the past 12 months. Energy order rates rose by more than 20%, while semiconductor order rates increased by 10%.

The defence order book is especially important. More than $60mn of defence orders in one quarter, combined with over $300mn in open quotation requests, gives Materion stronger visibility into future demand.

Materion’s performance-materials segment had a weaker first quarter. Net sales fell to $155.7mn from $174mn a year earlier, mainly because of lower precision-clad material sales.

However, the company expects performance-material sales to improve from the second quarter. Aerospace and defence demand should support the recovery.

The segment includes beryllium products and alloys, along with niobium, tantalum and nickel alloys. These materials serve demanding applications where strength, conductivity, thermal stability, corrosion resistance or weight reduction are essential.

Materion had suspended clad-strip production in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of material quality problems. Production resumed as expected in January-March and returned to pre-issue levels.

Precision optics also strengthened. Sales rose by 43% to $30.8mn, with demand improving across life sciences, consumer electronics, automotive, aerospace and defence, and semiconductors.

The result shows that Materion is exposed to several high-value growth channels at once. AI supports electronics materials, defence supports performance alloys, and precision optics benefits from advanced manufacturing and semiconductor demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Materion’s quarter shows how AI and defence demand are pulling specialty materials deeper into strategic supply chains. The key signal is not just higher sales, but the growing importance of tantalum, beryllium, niobium, nickel alloys and precision optics in advanced manufacturing.

Yageo AI Demand Lifts Sales as Tantalum Capacitors Gain Strategic Importance

Yageo Group

Yageo AI demand strengthened the Taiwanese electronic components manufacturer’s 2025 performance as high-end electronics and data centre applications supported sales growth. Net sales rose to NT$132.9bn, or about $4.26bn, up 9.3pc from a year earlier and 12.5pc in US dollar terms.

Yageo AI demand now accounts for around 13pc of the company’s sales, showing how artificial intelligence is reshaping the electronic components supply chain. The company said customer inventories have returned to healthier levels, while demand for AI-related products continues to grow despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Yageo AI demand also supported profitability. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose to NT$38.8bn in 2025 from NT$32.6bn in 2024. Fourth-quarter sales were particularly strong, rising 19.9pc from a year earlier to NT$35.96bn.

Tantalum Capacitors Benefit From AI Data Centre Growth

Tantalum-based capacitors are becoming more important as AI data centres increase demand for reliable, high-performance electronic components. Yageo is a major producer of tantalum capacitors, which are used across servers, power systems, industrial electronics, and advanced computing hardware.

The company’s tantalum product mix was its second-largest segment in the fourth quarter, accounting for 21.7pc of sales. Magnetics remained the largest segment at 26.4pc, highlighting Yageo’s exposure to several component categories tied to electrification, automation, and high-performance computing.

This product mix matters because AI infrastructure requires dense, stable, and reliable components. Capacitors, magnetic components, sensors, and thermal management devices all sit inside the wider hardware supply chain that supports data centres, power conversion, and electronics manufacturing.

Tantalum Supply Squeeze Adds Cost Pressure to Component Makers

Tantalum concentrate and metal prices have surged to record highs since the start of the year. The increase has been driven by tight supply in central Africa and rising downstream demand from AI-related applications.

This creates a strategic challenge for capacitor producers. Strong AI demand supports revenue growth, but raw material tightness can raise input costs and pressure margins if customers resist price adjustments. For manufacturers such as Yageo, access to reliable tantalum supply is becoming more important as demand shifts toward higher-end applications.

Yageo’s acquisition of Japan’s Shibaura Electronics also broadens its component platform. Shibaura produces thermistors and temperature sensors used in automobiles, home appliances, and industrial applications. The deal strengthens Yageo’s exposure to sensing and thermal control, both of which are increasingly relevant in electronics, industrial systems, and mobility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yageo’s results show that AI demand is moving beyond chips and servers into the deeper electronic materials chain. The next constraint may not only be semiconductor capacity, but also specialty components and critical minerals such as tantalum.

Silicon Photonics Capacity Expands as AI Data Centre Demand Accelerates

Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics capacity is expanding rapidly as artificial intelligence data centres require faster, higher-bandwidth and lower-latency connections between processors. Semiconductor firms are increasing investment as SiPh technology moves from telecoms and enterprise networks into hyperscale AI infrastructure.

The shift reflects a structural change in data centre architecture. Large AI clusters need optical interconnects that can move massive volumes of data with lower energy consumption than traditional copper-based systems.

Silicon photonics capacity growth is therefore becoming a materials story as well as a semiconductor story. While silicon wafers form the base platform, high-performance SiPh components also rely on indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride, germanium compounds and, in some cases, lithium niobate.

AI Workloads Push Optical Interconnects Beyond Copper

AI workloads are increasing data centre scale and network complexity, forcing hyperscalers to adopt technologies that reduce latency and energy use per bit. This is accelerating the replacement of copper in high-speed data communications equipment.

Industry spending on data centre switches for AI back-end networks is now forecast to exceed $100 billion by 2030. The upgraded outlook reflects rising demand from agentic AI, physical AI, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles and military systems.

This growth increases demand for optical transceivers, modulators, photodiodes, lasers and high-speed detection systems. These components are closely tied to minor metals and compound semiconductor materials that support faster optical transmission.

Tower and STMicroelectronics Scale SiPh Platforms

Tower Semiconductor is working with Coherent on high-speed data transmission using a silicon modulator built through a production-ready SiPh process. The work targets next-generation optical transceivers for AI data centre applications.

Tower is also investing heavily in silicon germanium products that support its SiPh platform. The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget for SiPh and silicon germanium by $270 million, in addition to the $650 million announced in late November.

STMicroelectronics is also expanding aggressively. The company plans to quadruple SiPh production capacity by 2027, supported by long-term capacity reservation commitments from customers.

STMicro recently entered high-volume production for its SiPh-based PIC100 platform. The platform is used by hyperscalers for optical interconnection in data centres and AI clusters, and it is designed to reduce signal loss while improving modulator, photodiode and chip-to-fibre performance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Silicon photonics capacity is becoming a hidden bottleneck in AI infrastructure. As optical interconnects scale, demand for indium, gallium, germanium and lithium niobate-linked materials will become more strategically important to the semiconductor supply chain.

IQE InP Capacity Positions UK Wafer Producer for AI Data Centre Demand

IQE

IQE InP capacity gives the UK compound semiconductor wafer producer a stronger position as artificial intelligence infrastructure drives demand for faster optical data transmission. The company says it has enough capacity to ramp output for AI infrastructure, aerospace and defence, and wireless markets in 2026.

IQE InP capacity is becoming more strategically important because indium phosphide supports high-speed photonic products used in data centres. These systems need faster, lower-latency connectivity as AI workloads increase.

IQE InP capacity could also be expanded by converting some gallium arsenide capacity if customer commitments support the move. That flexibility gives IQE a way to respond to demand without large immediate capital spending.

The company expects 2026 revenue to grow by more than 20%, supported by strong demand across core segments and a sharper recovery in photonics.

InP and GaN Demand Strengthens With AI Infrastructure

Indium phosphide demand is rising because AI data centres require ultra-fast optical and wireless communications. High-performance photonics are becoming essential as data movement becomes a bottleneck in AI infrastructure.

IQE produces InP, gallium nitride, gallium arsenide and gallium antimonide wafer products and material systems. The company sees the strongest opportunities in InP and GaN.

The AI buildout helped turn IQE’s business around in the second half of last year. First-half revenue had been pressured by tariff uncertainty, weakness in wireless handsets, customer inventory builds and delays in military and defence funding.

Photonics revenue rose by 15% to £57.1mn in 2025, supported by AI, data centres and the release of funding for some US military and defence programmes.

GaN is also gaining relevance. Demand for GaN power semiconductors is being driven by data centres, aerospace, defence and space applications, where efficiency, power density and heat resistance are critical.

GaAs remains relevant in wireless and sensing markets. IQE’s message is that InP may be leading the current growth cycle, but it sits inside a broader compound semiconductor materials platform.

Supply Security and Customer Commitments Will Decide Expansion

IQE’s capacity position improved after US chipmaker Macom invested in the company last month. The investment allowed IQE to avoid a sale process and retain manufacturing sites in the UK, US and Taiwan.

Each site has its own technology focus and capacity to scale production without major new capital expenditure. But any expansion must be supported by customer engagements, commitments or financing.

That condition matters because compound semiconductor supply chains require long qualification cycles. Customers need reliable wafer quality, secure supply, technical consistency and predictable production before committing to larger volumes.

IQE is also working with suppliers to reduce exposure to shortages in InP materials. The company is looking to dual-source or expand sourcing capabilities so it does not depend on a single supplier.

This highlights a wider materials issue. AI infrastructure is increasing demand not only for chips, but also for specialised semiconductor materials such as indium, gallium, phosphorus and antimony-based systems.

For IQE, the opportunity is clear. If AI, defence and wireless demand remain strong, the company can use its existing asset base to scale higher-value wafer production.

The challenge is execution. IQE must secure firm customer commitments, manage raw material sourcing and convert technical capacity into qualified volume growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IQE’s outlook shows that AI infrastructure is pulling compound semiconductors deeper into strategic supply-chain planning. The next bottleneck may not only be chip design, but access to qualified InP, GaN and GaAs wafer capacity.

AI Demand for InP Drives Major Semiconductor Capacity Expansion

Indium Phosphide

AI demand for InP is triggering a global investment cycle as semiconductor and photonics manufacturers race to expand indium phosphide wafer capacity. Supply remains tight as AI data centres require increasingly powerful optical interconnects between processors, memory and networking systems.

AI demand for InP has prompted Coherent to plan successive capacity expansions at its Sherman, Texas, facility. The company intends to double production by the end of 2026 and double capacity again by the end of 2027.

AI demand for InP is also accelerating investment in Japan, China and downstream US photonics manufacturing. Long-term supply agreements and customer prepayments show that manufacturers increasingly view access to InP substrates and components as a strategic constraint.

The expansion creates a direct link between AI infrastructure investment and indium demand, pushing a traditionally small specialty metal deeper into the semiconductor supply chain.

Six-Inch InP Wafers Become Strategic for AI Photonics

Coherent's Texas facility is focused on high-volume 150mm, or six-inch, InP semiconductor manufacturing. The company sees the transition from three-inch to six-inch wafers as a major driver of future production efficiency.

Larger wafers allow manufacturers to produce more devices from each substrate and potentially improve manufacturing economics. Coherent has also reported stronger yields from its six-inch lines compared with three-inch production.

The company shipped its first transceivers containing components manufactured on six-inch InP lines during the first quarter.

US industrial policy is supporting the expansion. Coherent has reached a preliminary agreement for up to $50mn in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.

Nvidia has also invested $2bn in Coherent and secured supply through the end of the decade. This highlights how AI companies are moving upstream to secure optical component capacity rather than relying solely on conventional procurement.

Coherent also plans to establish six-inch InP production at another facility in Zurich, further expanding its geographic manufacturing base.

Japan's JX Advanced Metals is pursuing an even larger capacity programme. The company plans to invest up to ¥120bn over four years and increase InP substrate capacity by seven to ten times.

Expansion will include additional production at Isohara Works and new capacity in Hitachinaka. JX is also discussing price revisions with customers as it seeks to build a more sustainable long-term supply model.

Tight InP Supply Extends Into Indium and Optical Manufacturing

China is seeing similar efforts to secure material. AXT's Beijing Tongmei subsidiary has signed a 2027 supply agreement with Nanjing Casela Technologies covering 173mn yuan of InP substrate wafers.

Casela will prepay 50% of the contract value, demonstrating the level of competition for future wafer availability. The agreement also gives the customer priority for additional volumes if capacity allows.

Export restrictions on Chinese InP have added another source of supply uncertainty, increasing the incentive for customers outside China to secure alternative production.

The shortage is also driving investment further downstream. Nokia is expanding its advanced photonic semiconductor test and packaging operation in Pennsylvania by up to ten times.

The facility packages photonic chips into optical modules used in AI and telecommunications infrastructure. Nokia is investing around $30mn alongside federal and state support.

These investments show that the bottleneck extends across the entire photonics chain, from InP substrates and epitaxial wafers to lasers, modulators, transceivers and packaging.

For metals markets, the expansion strengthens the outlook for indium. InP production requires high-purity indium, meaning sustained AI-driven wafer growth could place additional pressure on upstream refining and feedstock availability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AI is turning indium phosphide from a specialised telecom material into strategic computing infrastructure. The next bottleneck could move upstream from photonic devices to high-purity indium and qualified six-inch wafer capacity.

Tantalum Prices Surge as AI Capacitor Demand Meets Tight African Supply

Ta (Tantalum)

Tantalum prices have surged across concentrates, metal, and scrap as capacitor demand rises and supply disruption tightens the upstream market. The rally reflects a rare collision between stronger electronics consumption, AI data centre investment, and instability in central African raw material flows.

The price rise began before the latest disruption. However, the February landslide at the Rubaya mine in rebel-held eastern Democratic Republic of Congo intensified the market shock. Tantalum concentrate prices jumped sharply, and the pressure quickly moved into tantalum metal and scrap markets in Europe and the United States.

The supply impact has been especially important because much of the material linked to eastern DRC moves through Rwanda before entering international trade. Any disruption around Rubaya therefore affects more than one mining district. It also exposes how dependent the tantalum supply chain remains on politically fragile and difficult-to-monitor sources.

AI Data Centres Lift Tantalum Capacitor Demand

AI data centres have become a major new demand driver for tantalum capacitors. These components help regulate electricity flow on circuit boards and remain critical in high-performance electronics. As AI servers expand, demand for tantalum and tantalum-polymer capacitors is rising alongside advanced chips, power systems, and server hardware.

This demand is not theoretical. Boards used for Nvidia H100 cards can contain multiple tantalum and tantalum-polymer capacitors, making AI infrastructure a direct consumption channel for tantalum products. As Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon raise capital spending for AI infrastructure, smelters and traders expect stronger orders for next-generation capacitor materials.

The capacitor industry is already responding to cost pressure and higher demand. Manufacturers raised prices across several product ranges in 2025, including tantalum-polymer capacitors and multilayer ceramic capacitors. Higher tantalum powder costs contributed to the increases, but AI-related consumption has become an equally important factor.

Tight Supply Pushes Tantalum Metal and Scrap Higher

Tantalum prices are rising because the market faces pressure at both ends of the value chain. Upstream concentrate availability has tightened, while downstream buyers in capacitors and alloys continue to compete for material. This has lifted prices for concentrates, refined metal, and scrap at the same time.

The alloy sector has added another layer of demand stability. Even as capacitor demand accelerates, industrial users of tantalum metal continue to require reliable supply for high-performance applications. As a result, scrap has become more valuable because it offers an alternative source of tantalum units when mined supply becomes uncertain.

The current rally also echoes earlier technology investment cycles. The Dotcom boom drove strong demand for tantalum capacitors and pushed tantalite prices to historic highs. Today, AI infrastructure may be creating a similar demand shock, but with a more complex supply chain and tighter scrutiny around conflict-linked minerals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tantalum is becoming a hidden beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom. The market risk is that capacitor demand can scale faster than responsible mining, refining, and recycling channels can respond.

Defu Copper Foil Facility Targets AI and New Energy Demand Growth

Defu Technology

Defu copper foil facility plans will add another major layer of Chinese capacity for high-end electronic circuit materials as artificial intelligence, communications and energy transition sectors lift demand for specialised copper products. Defu Technology will invest 3.1bn yuan to build the project in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province.

Defu copper foil facility development will be focused on high-end AI electronic circuit copper foil. The project will be built in two phases, each with 25,000 t/yr of production capacity.

Defu copper foil facility timing has not yet been disclosed. But the investment signals continued confidence in downstream copper demand linked to AI infrastructure, 5G and 6G communications, low-earth-orbit satellites and new energy applications.

The company already had 175,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity at the end of 2025. Its output rose by 50% to 139,600t last year, while sales increased by 52% to 140,900t.

AI Infrastructure Adds New Demand Layer for Copper Foil

Copper foil is becoming more strategically important as electronics, batteries and data infrastructure demand higher-performance materials. AI systems require dense electronic circuits, high-speed signal transmission and reliable thermal and electrical performance.

Defu’s new project targets that shift. High-end electronic circuit copper foil is used in printed circuit boards and advanced electronics, where quality, thickness control and surface performance can determine reliability.

AI-related demand is still emerging, but it is already becoming relevant to copper markets. Some market participants estimate global copper demand from AI-related applications could reach around 350,000t in 2026.

That demand does not come only from data-centre power cables. It also includes circuit materials, cooling systems, electrical equipment, grid connections, transformers and backup power infrastructure.

Defu is therefore positioning itself closer to higher-value copper demand. The company is not simply expanding commodity capacity; it is targeting sectors where copper foil quality and customer qualification matter.

New Energy and Electronics Support Capacity Expansion

Energy transition sectors remain a key driver for electrolytic copper foil demand. Copper foil is widely used in lithium-ion batteries, especially as current collector material for anodes.

China’s copper foil operating rates improved significantly in 2025. Average electrolytic copper foil operating rates rose to 77.1%, up by 18.8 percentage points from a year earlier.

That recovery reflects stronger downstream demand from battery, electronics and new energy markets. It also helps explain why producers such as Defu are still adding capacity despite competition across China’s materials sector.

The planned Jiujiang facility will lift Defu’s ability to serve multiple growth markets. These include AI hardware, communications equipment, satellites, batteries and other high-end electronics.

However, expansion also raises competitive pressure. As more Chinese copper foil capacity enters the market, producers will need to differentiate through product quality, customer qualification and exposure to higher-margin applications.

For copper demand, the project reinforces a broader structural point. Electrification is no longer limited to EVs and grids. AI, satellites, communications and advanced electronics are adding new copper-intensive demand channels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Defu’s investment shows that copper demand is becoming more technology-driven and more specialised. The strongest copper foil producers will be those that can move beyond volume growth and qualify into AI, battery and high-end electronics supply chains.

IQE GaSb and GaN strategy pivots business toward AI and power markets amid sale options

IQE

IQE’s GaSb and GaN strategy is reshaping the UK compound semiconductor maker as it explores a potential sale of the company. The IQE GaSb and GaN strategy shifts focus toward high-value sensing, photonics and power electronics while legacy wireless markets remain under pressure. As a result, the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy now sits at the core of IQE’s turnaround and M&A narrative.

IQE has continued to rationalise its footprint while redirecting capital to growth nodes. The firm suspended manufacturing at its Silicon site in south Wales and plans to exit fully by the fourth quarter, with a new operator taking over the facility. This follows the sale of its decommissioned Bethlehem, Pennsylvania site in late 2023, with skills, IP and customers transferred to Greensboro, North Carolina. That larger US site now anchors IQE’s presence in advanced sensing, optical communications, aerospace, defence and wireless markets.

However, the restructuring runs in parallel with a strategic review that has widened from a Taiwan business sale to a possible sale of the entire company. IQE has been approached by at least one potential buyer and has received further early expressions of interest. Any acquirer would gain exposure across all four III-V platforms — GaAs, InP, GaN and GaSb — with particular upside in infrared sensing, AI data communications and GaN power electronics.

GaSb sensor momentum underpins IQE GaSb and GaN strategy

GaSb is emerging as a central pillar of the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy, especially in infrared and space imaging. IQE holds GaSb substrate manufacturing capacity in Spokane, Washington, and in Milton Keynes in the UK, creating a transatlantic supply base. The company has shipped its first commercial 6-inch GaSb epiwafers for large-area sensor products used in advanced space and satellite imaging.

These technology milestones are now backed by tangible orders. IQE secured a first-year $1.7mn purchase order for GaSb epitaxial wafers under a three-year agreement with a long-standing infrared sensing customer. It also landed a $4.1mn purchase order for antimonide substrates, with deliveries running into 2026. These sensors target industrial, aerospace and security applications, where long qualification cycles favour stable, specialist suppliers.

Meanwhile, photonics revenue remained broadly flat at £26.6mn in the first half, compared with £26.8mn a year earlier. Strong InP demand for AI-driven data communications offset delays in US military and defence infrared programmes. IQE also launched a 6-inch foundry platform for silicon photonics, positioning GaSb and InP technologies inside emerging AI and hyperscale data centre architectures.

GaN power growth, AI demand and risks to IQE GaSb and GaN strategy

On the GaN side, IQE is expanding reactor capacity for 8-inch GaN-on-silicon targeted at gesture recognition in AR and VR displays. At the same time, it is developing high-voltage (>1,000V) GaN technologies, including vertical GaN and GaN-on-sapphire, to serve automotive power electronics and radar markets. These developments reinforce how GaN power is becoming a key enabler for AI-era data centre power needs and high-efficiency conversion.

Management sees this GaN power pivot as crucial to long-term growth. Chief executive Jutta Meier highlighted the diversification into GaN power and connectivity as the right strategy, citing surging AI-related infrastructure and communications demand. IQE expects to benefit from the exit of a key GaN foundry player, which could free market share for its expanded platform. Multiple Tier 1 design wins in laser and detector products for AI and hyperscale data centres signal that the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy is already landing important customers.

Yet the investment case also carries risks. First-half group revenue fell to £45.3mn from £66mn, driven by a 52pc collapse in wireless revenue to £18.6mn. Overhang from 2024 inventory builds, tariff uncertainty and weak smartphone demand continue to weigh on handset-linked GaAs volumes. IQE expects wireless inventories to normalise only from 2026 and now guides 2025 revenue at £90-100mn, down from £118mn in 2024. The success of the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy must therefore offset a structurally weaker wireless segment and fund ongoing capacity shifts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IQE is moving from a broad, handset-heavy portfolio toward a more focused, higher-margin mix centred on GaSb sensing, GaN power and AI photonics. That repositioning strengthens its appeal as a strategic target for buyers seeking exposure to AI infrastructure and defence-linked semiconductors. The key question is whether GaSb and GaN growth can ramp fast enough to stabilise revenues before wireless markets recover.

SoftBank Osaka Battery Production Targets AI Data Centre Energy Demand

SoftBank

SoftBank Osaka battery production plans will add a new Japanese platform for next-generation battery cells and battery energy storage systems. The company aims to start production at its GX Factory in Osaka by March 2028.

SoftBank Osaka battery production will focus partly on zinc-halogen battery technology developed with South Korea’s COSMOS Lab. The partners aim to begin mass production during the April 2027-March 2028 fiscal year.

SoftBank Osaka battery production is strategically linked to rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure. As AI data centres expand, operators need safer, scalable and more resilient energy storage systems to support grid stability and power management.

The GX Factory is part of SoftBank’s planned AI data centre development at Sakai in Osaka prefecture, on a site formerly owned by Sharp. The wider project also includes the AX Factory, which will focus on AI data centre operations and infrastructure hardware manufacturing.

Zinc-Halogen Technology Targets Safety and Local Supply

SoftBank is positioning zinc-halogen batteries as a safer alternative to lithium-ion systems. The company said the technology removes lithium-ion fire risk by using a halogen-based cathode material, zinc anode and water-based electrolyte.

This chemistry also supports supply-chain resilience. Zinc and halides are available in Japan, reducing exposure to imported lithium, nickel, cobalt or graphite supply chains.

That matters because energy storage is becoming more strategically important as AI data centres, renewable power and grid balancing needs grow together. Battery systems must be safe, affordable and scalable.

Zinc-halogen batteries may be especially relevant for stationary storage, where safety, durability and material availability can matter more than maximum energy density.

SoftBank’s plan shows that AI infrastructure is beginning to shape battery demand beyond electric vehicles. Data centres require large and reliable power systems, and that could create a new demand channel for non-lithium battery chemistries.

BESS Manufacturing Adds Industrial Scale Ambition

SoftBank will also partner with South Korea’s DeltaX to develop and manufacture high-energy-density battery energy storage systems. The partnership will use DeltaX’s cell-connecting system design and cell-to-pack technology.

SoftBank aims to reach 1 GWh/yr of BESS mass production by the 2028-29 fiscal year. That would give the company a meaningful platform for grid, industrial and data-centre storage customers.

The company plans to expand sales into grid-storage, industrial and residential applications. It is also considering overseas markets in the medium term.

SoftBank wants the battery business to generate more than ¥100bn in annual revenue by the 2030-31 fiscal year. That target shows the company sees batteries as an infrastructure business, not only a technology experiment.

For Japan, the project strengthens domestic battery manufacturing around AI infrastructure and energy security. It also diversifies battery chemistry development beyond the lithium-ion supply chain.

The industrial implication is clear. As AI power demand accelerates, battery storage will become a strategic layer between data centres, grids and renewable energy supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SoftBank’s Osaka plan shows that AI infrastructure is now pulling battery innovation in a new direction. Zinc-halogen technology may not replace lithium-ion in vehicles, but it could become strategically important for safer, locally sourced stationary storage.

Amazon Corning Fiber Optics Deal Expands US AI Infrastructure Supply

Corning

Amazon Corning fiber optics investment will expand US production of optical fiber, cable and connectivity systems used in data centers. Amazon plans multibillion-dollar investment under a multi-year agreement with Corning.

Amazon Corning fiber optics partnership reflects the rapid infrastructure buildout behind artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Faster data transfer between servers, accelerators and data centers is increasing demand for high-performance optical networks.

Amazon Corning fiber optics expansion also has a direct critical minerals angle. Fiber optics are the largest end-use market for germanium in the US, linking AI infrastructure growth with demand for a strategically important minor metal.

Corning expects the partnership to create about 1,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in North Carolina. The companies also plan to expand technician training to support the larger manufacturing base.

AI Data Centers Drive Optical Fiber Capacity Growth

Amazon will use Corning's optical fiber, cable and connectivity products across its data center network. The agreement gives Corning a major anchor customer as it expands domestic manufacturing.

AI computing requires enormous volumes of data to move quickly between processors, memory and networking systems. As computing clusters grow larger, optical connectivity becomes increasingly important for maintaining high bandwidth and low latency.

This means AI investment is spreading beyond semiconductor chips into photonics, fiber networks, power equipment, cooling systems and grid infrastructure.

Corning expects to increase fiber production by more than 50%. It also plans three new manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas through a separate partnership with Nvidia.

The combination of Amazon and Nvidia demand gives Corning greater visibility for future capacity utilization. It also supports additional investment in US optical communications manufacturing.

Germanium Demand Gains New AI Infrastructure Exposure

The expansion is important for germanium because the metal is widely used in fiber optic manufacturing. Germanium compounds help control the refractive properties of optical glass, supporting efficient transmission of high-speed data.

Rapid fiber deployment therefore creates another demand channel for the minor metal. Individual fiber products use relatively small quantities, but large-scale data center construction can materially increase aggregate consumption.

Supply security is becoming more important because germanium production and processing remain concentrated. Greater AI-related demand could increase competition for refined and high-purity material.

For technology companies, optical connectivity is becoming as critical as access to processors and electricity. For materials suppliers, that means AI demand increasingly reaches deep into specialty metals and advanced materials supply chains.

Corning's expansion shows how data center investment can translate into new demand for physical infrastructure and strategic raw materials far beyond the semiconductor sector.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AI infrastructure is becoming a broad materials story, not just a chip story. As hyperscale data centers expand, germanium and optical fiber capacity could become increasingly strategic bottlenecks.

Corning Meta Optical Cable Plant Strengthens AI Data Centre Supply Chain

Corning

Corning Meta optical cable plant construction has started in Hickory, North Carolina, as Corning moves to support Meta’s growing artificial intelligence data centre network. The project is expected to become the world’s largest fibre optic cable manufacturing facility.

The plant forms part of Corning’s $6bn multi-year agreement with Meta, signed in January. Under the deal, Corning will supply next-generation optical fibre, cable and connectivity products for Meta’s expanding data centre infrastructure.

Corning Meta optical cable plant development matters because AI workloads are increasing demand for high-speed, low-latency optical communication systems. As AI clusters grow larger, fibre optic connectivity becomes a critical infrastructure layer alongside chips, power, cooling and storage.

AI Data Centres Drive Optical Fibre Demand

Meta’s fibre connectivity requirements are rising as the company operates or builds 26 data centres across the US. These facilities support the rapid expansion of AI computing capacity, which requires dense and reliable optical networks.

Corning’s optical communications business is already benefiting from this demand. Net sales in the segment rose by 35% year on year in the fourth quarter, driven by stronger AI data centre demand, while total company sales increased by 14% to $4.41bn.

The Corning Meta optical cable plant therefore reflects a wider shift in digital infrastructure. Data centre growth is no longer only a semiconductor story; it is also becoming a materials, glass, cable and connectivity supply chain story.

Germanium Supply Becomes Strategic for Fibre Optic Expansion

Fibre optic cable production has direct implications for germanium demand. Germanium tetrachloride is used to increase the refractive index of the silica glass core in fibre optic cables, making it essential for high-performance optical communication.

Optical communication is the largest downstream consumer of germanium in the US. That makes AI data centre expansion increasingly relevant to minor metals markets, especially as fibre deployment accelerates.

Supply risk remains a key concern. China imposed export controls on germanium metal and other germanium products in August 2023, citing military technology concerns. China accounts for about 60-70% of global germanium output, while its exports of germanium and fabricated products fell sharply to 11,316kg in 2025 from 25,273kg in 2024.

Chinese germanium exports remained weak early this year, with January shipments down 95% on the year and February shipments also lower. This creates a strategic tension: AI infrastructure is increasing optical fibre demand, while germanium availability remains constrained by export controls.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Corning-Meta project shows that AI infrastructure is pushing demand deeper into specialty materials supply chains. Germanium may be a small-volume metal, but its role in optical fibre makes it strategically important as data centres scale.

Lumentum Indium Phosphide Capacity Expansion Targets AI Optical Demand

Lumentum

Lumentum indium phosphide capacity is set to expand in the US as the photonics manufacturer increases production for artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. The company is preparing a new North Carolina facility focused on six-inch InP wafer production.

Lumentum indium phosphide capacity is strategically important because InP is a critical material for high-speed laser chips used in optical transceivers. These devices move large volumes of data between servers, switches and accelerators inside AI data centres.

Lumentum indium phosphide capacity expansion also reflects a broader shortage of compound semiconductor manufacturing capacity. AI infrastructure is now creating a new demand channel for InP beyond traditional telecom and sensing applications.

The company has ordered multiple InP production systems from German equipment supplier Aixtron. The North Carolina site is expected to open by mid-2028.

Nvidia Deal Anchors US InP Manufacturing Growth

Part of Lumentum’s future production is already committed to Nvidia under a multibillion-dollar supply agreement for advanced InP laser components. Nvidia is also investing $2bn in Lumentum’s manufacturing expansion.

That commercial backing is important because compound semiconductor fabs require large capital investment and long qualification cycles. Firm customer commitments reduce the risk of adding capacity ahead of demand.

AI data centres require increasingly fast optical links as computing clusters grow larger. Copper interconnects remain important at shorter distances, but optical systems become more critical as bandwidth and transmission distance increase.

InP laser chips sit at the centre of that shift. They enable high-speed optical transceivers used to connect servers and networking equipment inside cloud and AI infrastructure.

These AI-related applications now account for around 10% of global InP demand. That share could rise as data-centre operators move toward higher-speed optical architectures.

The expansion therefore gives Lumentum exposure to one of the fastest-growing segments of the semiconductor materials market.

Structural Supply Constraints Lift InP Investment

Global InP manufacturing capacity remains limited, prompting producers in several regions to expand.

UK semiconductor producer IQE has said it could convert some gallium arsenide capacity to InP if customer demand continues to strengthen. That illustrates how manufacturers are reallocating compound semiconductor assets toward higher-growth photonics markets.

Chinese producer AXT is also expanding aggressively. The company plans to double InP capacity in 2026 and again in 2027 to serve growing data-centre demand.

This competition shows that InP is becoming a strategic material rather than a niche semiconductor substrate. Supply availability, wafer quality and production scale will increasingly affect optical component growth.

For AI infrastructure, the bottleneck is shifting beyond processors. High-performance computing also depends on optics, power electronics, cooling and materials capable of moving data efficiently.

The next phase of AI investment will therefore benefit companies positioned in these supporting supply chains. Lumentum’s North Carolina expansion places InP wafer production directly inside the US manufacturing ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AI growth is turning indium phosphide into a strategic semiconductor material, not just a telecom input. The companies that secure wafer capacity and qualified laser production early could gain significant leverage as optical connectivity becomes a core data-centre bottleneck.