China hafnium exports rise despite stricter curbs in 1H 2025

Hafnium

China hafnium exports rose year to date despite tighter controls. Strong aerospace, nuclear, turbine, and semiconductor demand drove resilience. China hafnium exports reached 14,339kg, up 8.5pc on the year. Meanwhile, China hafnium exports remained anchored by US and UK buyers.

Tighter controls whipsaw monthly flows

June shipments plunged as licensing rules tightened further. Exports fell to 264kg, down 84pc year on year. Volumes also dropped 91pc from May’s 2,987kg. Dual-use rules required deeper documentation and new approvals. Several producers waited up to eight weeks for permits.

Aerospace and chips sustain year-to-date strength

US and UK demand underpinned first-half totals. Combined shipments to both markets reached 7,724kg, or 54pc of exports. Downstream users sought hafnium for superalloys and control rods. Semiconductor makers also lifted purchases for advanced lithography components. Supply chains balanced curbs with forward orders and inventory builds.

Export compliance now shapes trade flows more than price. China introduced separate hafnium codes and permit rules in 2023. Buyers must provide detailed end-use and end-user statements. As a result, exporters prioritize predictable customers and audited channels. Market participants expect continued volatility around month-end approvals.

Hafnium’s strategic role raises substitution questions. However, performance demands limit feasible alternatives in superalloys. Gas turbines and jet engines still prefer hafnium-bearing alloys. Therefore, risk management now focuses on diversification and recycling. Contract structures increasingly include licensing contingencies and longer lead times.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The split screen is clear: yearly totals look firm, yet monthly flows swing on permits. Expect intermittent tightness as paperwork bunches and audits intensify. Prudent buyers will secure multi-origin supply and pre-clear licenses.