Antofagasta Copper Output Falls as Los Pelambres and Centinela Weigh on First Quarter

Antofagasta

Antofagasta copper output fell in the first quarter of 2026 as lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela reduced group supply. The Chilean miner produced 143,000t of copper during the quarter, down 7.6% from a year earlier.

The decline also affected sales. Antofagasta copper sales fell by 19.5% on the year to 137,000t, reflecting weaker quarterly output and the timing of shipments.

Antofagasta copper output is expected to improve through the year as maintenance at Los Pelambres is completed and ore processing rates and grades recover. The company expects 2026 production to rise quarter on quarter after the first-quarter slowdown.

The result is important for the copper market because Chile remains one of the world’s most important supply regions. Any operational weakness at major Chilean producers can influence concentrate availability, refined copper expectations and market sentiment.

Los Pelambres Maintenance and Centinela Grades Hit Copper Supply

Los Pelambres remained Antofagasta’s largest copper producer in the first quarter, but output fell by 5.2% on the year to 66,300t. The decline was mainly caused by ongoing major plant maintenance.

Maintenance-related weakness is usually temporary, but it can still affect quarterly supply. Los Pelambres is a key asset for Antofagasta, so any reduction in availability has a direct impact on group production.

Centinela recorded a sharper decline. First-quarter copper output at the unit fell by 12.4% on the year to 48,700t.

Centinela concentrate production edged down by 0.6% to 35,700t because of lower grades and weaker ore processing rates. Cathode output fell much more sharply, dropping by 34.3% on the year to 13,000t.

The performance shows that Antofagasta’s production pressure was not limited to one mine. Maintenance at Los Pelambres, lower grades at Centinela and weaker cathode output all contributed to the first-quarter decline.

Output also softened at the group’s smaller assets. Antucoya production fell by 3% on the year to 19,600t, while Zaldivar output decreased by 7.8% to 8,300t.

This broad decline highlights the operational challenge facing copper producers. Even when demand fundamentals remain supportive, mine output can be affected by maintenance schedules, ore grades, processing rates and asset maturity.

Molybdenum Holds Relatively Stable as Copper Recovery Depends on Operations

Antofagasta’s molybdenum production was relatively stable compared with copper. Group molybdenum output reached 3,000t in the first quarter, down 3.2% from the same period last year.

The result reflected a balance between higher molybdenum recoveries and lower ore processing rates. This helped limit the decline despite weaker copper throughput at key concentrators.

Molybdenum output at Centinela fell by 12.5% on the year to 700t. Los Pelambres molybdenum production remained unchanged at 2,300t, helping stabilise the group result.

Molybdenum remains strategically important because it is used in stainless steel, special steels, energy infrastructure, defence applications and high-performance alloys. Stable molybdenum by-product output can support revenue diversity when copper production weakens.

For copper, the key issue is the second-quarter recovery. Completion of Los Pelambres maintenance should support stronger output, while improved grades and processing rates at Centinela would be needed to rebuild production momentum.

Antofagasta copper output will therefore depend less on market conditions and more on operational execution in the coming quarters. If maintenance ends smoothly and grades improve, the first quarter may prove to be a temporary low point.

Still, the result reinforces a broader copper supply theme. Global copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electrification and industrial investment, but mine supply remains vulnerable to operational delays, lower grades and maintenance disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antofagasta’s first-quarter decline looks operational rather than structural, but it still matters for copper supply sentiment. The market will watch whether Los Pelambres rebounds after maintenance and whether Centinela can restore grade and processing performance.