Lundin 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Candelaria Slows Underground Mining

Lundin Mining

Lundin 2026 copper guidance has moved lower after weaker expectations at Candelaria in Chile. The company cut its 2026 copper target to 310,000-335,000t. That compares with earlier guidance of 320,000-348,000t. As a result, Lundin 2026 copper guidance now reflects a more cautious view of underground mining rates.

The revision matters because Candelaria remains Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset. The company expects lower underground mining rates in the first half of 2026. That change directly reduced expected output from the site. Therefore, Candelaria copper production is now the main reason for the group downgrade.

However, Lundin’s overall operating picture is not weak across the board. The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, beating its initial guidance. It also raised copper expectations at Caserones and Chapada for 2026. Meanwhile, Lundin has sharpened its portfolio around copper after selling its Eagle nickel-copper asset.

Candelaria Copper Production Weighs on the 2026 Outlook

Candelaria copper production is carrying more operational risk than Lundin’s other core assets. The company lowered 2026 guidance for the mine to 135,000-145,000t. Its previous estimate stood at 140,000-150,000t. That reduction may look modest, but it matters because of the asset’s size inside the portfolio.

The mine also underperformed in 2025 compared with the previous year. Copper production at Candelaria fell by 10pc to 145,471t. That decline suggests the new guidance cut did not emerge in isolation. Instead, it reflects an operating trend investors should watch closely in 2026.

For copper markets, this type of downgrade remains important. Global supply growth still depends heavily on stable performance from established mines. When a large Chilean asset slows, even slightly, confidence in near-term supply weakens. Therefore, Lundin 2026 copper guidance reinforces how sensitive the market remains to mine-specific disruption.

Caserones Copper Output and Chapada Recovery Support Lundin Copper Strategy

Caserones copper output is now providing the strongest counterweight inside Lundin’s portfolio. The company lifted 2026 guidance for the Chilean operation by 13pc to 130,000-140,000t. It also said production will be modestly weighted toward the first half. That reflects a more favourable grade profile in the coming year.

Caserones already showed stronger momentum in 2025. Copper production there rose 7pc year on year to 132,881t. That improvement helped Lundin raise its 2025 copper guidance during the third quarter. As a result, Caserones copper output has become a more important stabiliser for group performance.

Chapada is also moving in the right direction. Lundin raised 2026 guidance for the Brazilian mine by 12pc to 45,000-50,000t. The company expects better recovery as stockpile material falls from about 25pc to 10pc of mill feed. Consequently, Chapada may contribute more meaningful quality improvement than headline tonnage alone suggests.

Lundin’s broader copper strategy is becoming clearer. The company has raised 2027 guidance across its three copper projects by an average of 4pc. It also sold Eagle, its only nickel-producing asset, in order to focus on larger copper operations. Therefore, Lundin is positioning itself as a more concentrated copper producer, even as Lundin 2026 copper guidance moves lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This guidance cut is not a company-wide setback. It is a reminder that copper portfolios still depend on a few large mines performing well. Lundin’s strategy remains constructive, but Candelaria now deserves far more attention than the headline guidance change suggests.