Taseko copper guidance cut again as Gibraltar underperforms

Taseko

Taseko copper guidance cut for 2025 highlights the strain at its Gibraltar mine in British Columbia. Taseko copper guidance cut by 11pc shows how earlier operational shortfalls still weigh on full-year output expectations. As a result, Taseko copper guidance cut underscores the growing importance of new production from Florence Copper in Arizona.

Gibraltar struggles to regain copper momentum

Taseko now expects 2025 copper production of 100mn–105mn lbs, including cathode output. This latest Taseko copper guidance cut follows weaker-than-planned performance earlier in the year. The company admits it cannot fully recover the production shortfall created by low recoveries in the first quarter.

However, third-quarter copper production edged up by 2pc to 27.6mn lbs, including 900,000lbs of cathode. Second-quarter output slipped to 19.8mn lbs, down from 20.2mn lbs a year earlier. The company sold 26.3mn lbs of copper in the third quarter, flat year on year, indicating that sales have not yet reflected meaningful growth.

Meanwhile, by-product performance improved, with molybdenum production up 33pc on the year to 560,000lbs. This helps unit costs but cannot fully offset the impact of lower-than-guided copper volumes. Taseko still expects a “significant” fourth-quarter copper production increase, but the lowered guidance shows that recovery will be partial at best.

Florence Copper steps up as future growth driver

The guidance reset increases pressure on the Florence Copper project to deliver new volumes. Taseko has started wellfield operations at Florence after receiving final regulatory approvals, marking a key de-risking milestone. The company expects first copper cathode from Florence in about three months, adding a second production base.

As a result, Florence Copper could gradually rebalance the group’s portfolio away from relying solely on Gibraltar. In-situ leach cathode production should also help diversify cost structures and reduce exposure to Gibraltar’s recovery volatility. Over time, the combination of Gibraltar concentrate and Florence cathode can strengthen Taseko’s position in the North American copper market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s trimmed outlook shows how fragile single-asset copper stories can be when recoveries slip. The speed and reliability of the Florence Copper ramp-up will likely define investor confidence far more than short-term Gibraltar variability. If Florence delivers on schedule, the current guidance cut may be remembered as a temporary stumble rather than a structural setback.