Refined Copper Flows Split Between US Stock-Build and China Demand Recovery

US Copper

Refined copper flows are being pulled in two directions as US tariff risk draws cathode into Comex warehouses while China returns to the seaborne market after a sharp fall in domestic inventories. The result is not a simple global shortage, but a more complex location-driven contest for metal.

Refined copper flows were distorted in the first quarter by financial investor activity, US policy uncertainty and weak Chinese import economics. That balance is now shifting as China’s import arbitrage reopens, while US buyers and traders continue to position ahead of possible refined copper tariffs.

Refined copper flows are therefore becoming more strategic. The same unit of cathode can carry different value depending on whether it sits in the US, China, bonded warehouses or LME storage.

This market structure matters because copper is no longer priced only against broad industrial demand. Tariff risk, warehouse location, arbitrage spreads, strategic stock-building and smelter economics are now shaping physical trade.

US Tariff Risk Keeps Pulling Copper Into Comex

US copper inventories continue to build as tariff uncertainty supports a location premium. Comex warehouse stocks rose to 615,852 short tons on 4 May, up 5% from 586,563t on 14 April.

This build does not necessarily show stronger underlying US consumption. It shows that market participants are willing to pay to position metal inside the US before potential import tariff announcements this summer.

US refined copper and unwrought copper alloy imports under HS 7403 reached 382,952t in January-February 2026. That was up 184% from 134,754t a year earlier.

The longer trend is even clearer. Imports over March 2025-February 2026 more than doubled to 1.9mn t from 923,701t in the previous 12-month period.

Arbitrage has reinforced the flow. The LME cash official to Comex cash copper arbitrage widened to minus $385.14/t on 1 May from minus $261.24/t on 30 April and minus $126.50/t on 29 April.

That widening spread signals a stronger US location premium. It gives traders an incentive to direct copper units into Comex warehouses rather than leave them available to other regional buyers.

This has important supply-chain implications. A high level of visible copper stock does not automatically mean metal is freely available to every market. If inventories are concentrated in one jurisdiction for policy reasons, other regions can tighten even while global stock numbers look comfortable.

The US stock-build is therefore a policy-driven trade flow. It reflects uncertainty over future tariff treatment, not a normal demand cycle.

For manufacturers, this creates procurement risk. Fabricators outside the US may face tighter access to marginal units if traders continue sending cathode into the American system.

For traders, location is becoming a profit centre. The value is not only in the copper price, but in where the copper is held and what policy regime applies to it.

China Import Window Reopens as Domestic Stocks Fall

China is now creating the counter pull. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse stocks fell to 201,373t on 24 April from 433,458t on 13 March.

Bonded copper stocks also slipped to 19,159t on 24 April from 22,547t on 20 March. That drawdown reopened space for imported cathode after a weak first quarter for overseas material.

China’s import arbitrage improved sharply at the end of April. The grade A copper cathode import margin rose to 427 yuan/t on 30 April from 94 yuan/t on 28 April and minus 73 yuan/t on 23 April.

If the window remains open, China’s second-quarter refined copper imports could recover from first-quarter levels. Buyers have a clearer reason to replenish domestic supply after the recent inventory draw.

However, the recovery may be uneven. High outright copper prices still limit fabricator appetite, and part of the stock draw reflects seasonal restocking after the first-quarter lull.

The wider inventory picture still does not support a broad scarcity narrative. LME copper stocks remained sizable at 398,675t, while on-warrant inventories have risen sharply since early January.

This means the market is not short everywhere. It is tight in specific locations, under specific pricing structures, and for specific buyers.

That is the core point. Refined copper flows are increasingly being shaped by regional availability rather than total visible inventory.

Smelter economics add another risk to the China outlook. Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges remain deeply negative, showing that mine supply is tight while smelting capacity remains excessive.

Chinese smelters have continued running at high rates despite negative treatment charges. High sulphuric acid by-product values have helped support operating economics.

That balance may become more fragile after China’s suspension of sulphuric acid exports from May. If more acid remains in the domestic market, smelters may face weaker by-product revenue or rising storage pressure.

If domestic acid demand cannot absorb the extra supply, some smelters may bring forward maintenance. That would tighten refined copper output later in the quarter and strengthen the case for more imports.

The refined copper market is therefore in a split-flow pattern. US policy risk is pulling copper west, while China’s inventory draw and import window are pulling metal back east.

For other regions, that creates a squeeze. Europe and other buyers may find marginal cathode harder to source even while global inventories appear adequate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is moving from a global inventory story to a location and policy story. The real risk is not that the world lacks refined copper today, but that tariff positioning, Chinese restocking and smelter economics keep redirecting the same units away from other buyers.

FedEx Tariff Refunds Lawsuit Raises New Uncertainty for US Importers

FedEx

FedEx tariff refunds are becoming a major test case for companies seeking to recover duties paid under cancelled US import tariffs. The global shipping group has filed a lawsuit against the US administration after the Supreme Court struck down most of the duties imposed last year under emergency powers.

The case matters beyond FedEx. As an importer of record for goods entering the United States, FedEx sits directly inside the customs system used by manufacturers, retailers, refiners, traders, and industrial buyers. Its lawsuit could influence how other companies pursue refunds and how regulators manage a potentially complex repayment process.

FedEx tariff refunds could also affect trade compliance strategy across commodity and manufacturing supply chains. Many companies paid duties on imported inputs, finished goods, energy products, and industrial materials. If refunds become available, importers will need documentation, customs records, and legal clarity to recover what they paid.

Importers Face a Complicated Refund Process

The refund process is likely to be difficult because the total value of disputed duties is extremely large. The US had collected $133bn in tariffs under IEEPA by December, and economists estimate the amount may have since risen to about $175bn. That creates a major administrative challenge for customs authorities and eligible importers.

FedEx said it suffered injury from the cancelled tariffs and is seeking a full refund with interest. However, the company has not disclosed a specific monetary claim. It has also warned that no formal refund process has yet been established by regulators or the courts.

Hundreds of companies have already filed tariff refund lawsuits, including refiners Valero and Marathon Petroleum. This shows that the issue is not limited to logistics companies. It reaches energy, manufacturing, retail, metals, chemicals, and other import-heavy sectors that absorbed tariff costs during the disputed period.

New Tariffs Keep Pressure on Supply Chains

The legal fight over FedEx tariff refunds is unfolding as new US import duties take effect under a different trade authority. A new 10pc tariff on all US imports has started, while the administration has signalled a potential increase to 15pc. This means companies may be pursuing refunds for one tariff regime while preparing for cost increases under another.

For industrial buyers, that creates planning uncertainty. Tariffs affect landed costs, sourcing decisions, inventory strategy, and contract pricing. Companies importing metals, machinery, energy products, electronic components, and intermediate goods may need to reassess supplier exposure and tariff recovery options at the same time.

The dispute also highlights the growing legal risk around trade policy. Tariffs can be imposed quickly, but refunding them after a court ruling can take years. That gap leaves importers exposed to cash-flow pressure, accounting complexity, and uncertainty over whether duties can be recovered.

The Metalnomist Commentary

FedEx tariff refunds could become a benchmark for how importers recover costs from overturned trade measures. The bigger issue is that US tariff policy is now creating legal uncertainty as well as supply-chain cost pressure.

Trump's Abrupt Tariff Decision: Pausing Global Levies While Increasing China's Tariffs

China Tariff

In a surprising shift, President Donald Trump announced that he would pause the punitive tariffs on key US trading partners, which were set to begin today. However, he simultaneously raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an extraordinary 125%. This move marks a significant reversal from earlier statements, as Trump justified the pause with the recent volatility in financial markets, particularly in the stock and bond markets.

Pausing Global Tariffs but Targeting China

Trump’s decision, announced via social media, paused reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country except China. These tariffs, which had ranged from 17% on countries like the Philippines and Israel to 49% on Cambodia, were set to begin today. The pause will last for 90 days, offering a temporary respite to US trading partners.

However, the increased tariffs on Chinese imports stand in stark contrast. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the tariff rate on China will rise to an unprecedented 125%. This escalation follows ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, with China repeatedly increasing its trade actions against the US.

The EU, which would have faced a 20% tariff starting today, has already prepared retaliatory measures. The European Union has also proposed countermeasures for the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports imposed earlier by the US.

Flexibility in Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations

In a shift from earlier policy, President Trump indicated a willingness to consider exemptions for certain US importers who may be disproportionately affected by the tariffs. This move contrasts with previous statements where the administration had insisted on a blanket approach. Energy commodities and critical minerals were exempt from both the baseline 10% tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs.

Furthermore, Bessent suggested that trade discussions may also involve non-trade issues, with the US considering a major LNG project in Alaska that could attract interest from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These potential deals could factor into negotiations aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with these countries.

China’s Response and Global Impact

China, predictably, responded to the new tariffs with its own retaliatory measures. As of April 10, China will increase import tariffs on US goods by 50 percentage points, reaching a total of 84%. This escalation underscores the growing trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world.

The UK and Canada have also indicated potential countermeasures. The UK, which remains subject to a 10% tariff, has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be targeted. Mexico and Canada, however, were excluded from the latest round of tariffs, further highlighting the complex nature of US trade policies.

Uncertainty Surrounds Tariff Strategy

The sudden reversal in tariff policy caught many in the administration by surprise. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who had been testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee, was blindsided by the announcement. This left many questioning the coherence and strategy behind Trump’s tariff decisions.

Representative Steven Horsford of Nevada remarked that there appeared to be no clear strategy, as evidenced by Greer’s reaction. This further compounded the sense of unpredictability surrounding US trade policy.

Conclusion: A Shifting Trade Landscape

President Trump's abrupt changes to tariff policies, particularly the increase in tariffs on China, signal that the US is deepening its trade conflict with the country. While the temporary pause on global tariffs provides some relief to US allies, the continued escalation with China may have long-lasting effects on global trade dynamics. As negotiations unfold, businesses worldwide will be watching closely to understand the full impact of these decisions.

Century Aluminum Mt Holly Smelter Expansion Lifts US Primary Aluminum Output

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter production has begun from the company’s expansion project in South Carolina, adding new domestic primary aluminum capacity at a time when US trade policy is reshaping metal supply economics. The company expects the expansion to reach full production by the end of June 2026.

The expanded Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter is expected to reach nameplate capacity of 229,000 t/yr. Century said the additional output will increase total US primary aluminum production by 10%.

Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter output matters because the US has been trying to rebuild domestic primary aluminum supply after years of capacity pressure. Higher tariffs, energy costs and import dependence have made aluminum smelting a strategic industrial issue.

Section 232 Tariff Supports Domestic Aluminum Expansion

Century’s expansion follows the implementation of the 50% Section 232 aluminum tariff in June 2025. The tariff has improved the incentive structure for domestic primary aluminum production by raising the cost of imported material.

Primary aluminum smelting is highly energy-intensive, so producers need a combination of power competitiveness, policy support and long-term demand visibility. The Mt Holly expansion shows that tariff protection can influence production decisions when capacity is already available for restart or expansion.

The added output will not remove US import dependence. However, a 10% increase in domestic primary aluminum production is meaningful in a market where every operating smelter carries strategic value.

Domestic aluminum is important for packaging, transportation, construction, defense, electrical infrastructure and manufacturing. Greater local supply can reduce exposure to import volatility and support downstream users seeking more secure metal availability.

Century Extends US Aluminum Strategy With Oklahoma Project

Century is also pursuing a larger domestic growth strategy beyond Mt Holly. The company has teamed up with Emirates Global Aluminum to build a planned 750,000 t/yr primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma.

That project would represent a much larger change to US aluminum supply if completed. It would add major greenfield smelting capacity and strengthen the country’s ability to supply downstream manufacturing from domestic primary metal.

The two projects show how US aluminum policy is moving from import management toward capacity rebuilding. Mt Holly provides a near-term production increase, while Oklahoma represents a longer-term industrial supply-chain bet.

For the US market, the key question is whether tariff protection, energy availability and industrial demand can support sustained investment in smelting. Without competitive power and stable policy, primary aluminum capacity remains difficult to maintain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s Mt Holly expansion shows that tariff policy is beginning to translate into real domestic aluminum output. The bigger test will be whether the US can turn short-term protection into long-term smelting competitiveness through power access, investment and downstream demand.

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

Trump Tariff

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

US President Donald Trump has announced a significant escalation in trade protectionism by doubling Section 232 tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. The statement was made at a rally held at US Steel’s Mon Valley Works in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. While the specific date and mechanism for implementation remain unclear, the move signals stronger trade defense ahead of the election season.

The 50% tariff aims to shield domestic producers from what Trump described as unfair foreign competition. The policy will particularly affect exporters from China, South Korea, Turkey, and Brazil, who already face quotas and duties under Section 232.

Nippon Steel’s $14 Billion Investment Secures US Steel’s Future

In addition to the tariff hike, Trump confirmed that Nippon Steel will move forward with a $14 billion investment in US Steel. While not framed as a full acquisition, Trump emphasized that US Steel will retain operational control and remain headquartered in Pittsburgh. He claimed the investment would be the largest in Pennsylvania’s history and a milestone for the US steel industry.

According to Trump, the plan includes $2.2 billion to modernize the Mon Valley mill and $7 billion to revamp steel mills and ore mines in Indiana, Minnesota, Alabama, and Arkansas. The investment is expected to create 100,000 jobs over the next 14 months and secure blast furnace operations for at least a decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move to double tariffs, while politically potent, reflects a broader trend of industrial reshoring and national resource security. The Nippon investment adds long-term operational value, but short-term market volatility is inevitable. Policymakers and steel-consuming sectors must now prepare for elevated costs and complex supply chain recalibrations.

Civil Aircraft Tariff Exemption Shields Aerospace Trade but Metal Duties Remain

Airplanes parts

Civil aircraft tariff exemption rules will shield commercial aircraft, engines, parts, components, and subassemblies from the latest US import tariff. However, the carve-out does not remove existing tariff pressure on several critical aerospace metals used across aircraft manufacturing and high-performance supply chains.

The latest US measure applies a temporary 10pc tariff on most imports for 150 days from 24 February, with a possible 15pc rate subject to official implementation. Civil aviation products are excluded under annex I, covering all non-military aircraft and their related engines, parts, components, and other subassemblies.

The exemption follows strong aerospace industry resistance to earlier trade action. Commercial aviation supply chains are deeply global, and aircraft production depends on cross-border movement of precision parts, engines, structures, avionics, and certified materials. A broad tariff on these flows would have raised costs across Boeing, Airbus suppliers, engine makers, maintenance providers, and aerospace metals processors.

Aerospace Supply Chains Avoid Direct Aircraft Tariff Shock

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects one of the most globally integrated industrial supply chains from immediate disruption. Commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on certified components moving repeatedly between countries before final assembly, delivery, and maintenance.

This carve-out also supports the July EU-US agreement that restored transatlantic free trade on aircraft and component parts. That matters because Europe and the United States remain tightly connected in aircraft structures, engines, landing gear, fasteners, forgings, castings, and advanced materials.

However, the exemption does not mean aerospace manufacturers are free from trade cost risk. Tariffs can still affect upstream materials and intermediate inputs before they become certified aircraft parts. This creates a split market where finished aviation components may be protected, while key metals used to make them still face separate tariff regimes.

Critical Aerospace Metals Still Face Tariff Exposure

Critical aerospace metals remain exposed through existing Section 301 and Section 232 measures. Section 301 tariffs of 25pc on various materials used in aircraft and associated parts still apply. This keeps cost pressure on parts of the aerospace materials chain even after the civil aircraft carve-out.

Annex II also maintains exemptions for several critical materials, including titanium, cobalt, chromium, rhenium, nickel, tantalum, tungsten, and niobium. These materials are essential for aircraft engines, high-temperature alloys, fasteners, structural components, landing systems, and other demanding aerospace applications.

Hafnium stands out because it is not included in annex II and is therefore subject to the new tariff. That is strategically relevant because hafnium is used in high-temperature and advanced alloy applications, including aerospace and defence-related supply chains. The omission shows how narrow tariff classifications can create unexpected cost exposure for small but critical materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects final aerospace trade, but it does not fully protect the metals value chain behind it. The real risk now sits in the gap between tariff-exempt aircraft parts and tariff-exposed specialty materials.

EU zero-tariff offer for US products aims to unlock trade while keeping sensitive goods protected

EU zero-tariff

The EU zero-tariff offer for US products sets out wide duty relief to defuse transatlantic tensions. The EU zero-tariff offer for US products targets industrial goods, plastics and selected agri-food via tariff-rate quotas. As a result, the EU zero-tariff offer for US products could secure a 15pc US tariff ceiling for EU exports, applied retroactively.

What the offer covers and why it matters

Brussels proposes zero tariffs on fertilisers, plastics, machinery, autos and parts, wood and pulp, paper, ceramics and leather. However, access will run through product-specific TRQs such as 25,000t for pig meat and 400,000t for crude soybean oil. The package also removes import duties on US-origin polyethylene. Therefore, EU manufacturers and farmers could see cheaper inputs and improved supply security. A safeguard clause allows the EU to suspend concessions if import surges threaten domestic industry.

What the offer excludes and the political trade-off

The plan excludes “sensitive” farm goods such as beef, poultry and ethanol. Meanwhile, the EU lists mineral fuels and a broad set of chemicals, reflecting industrial priorities over agriculture. Senior officials framed fertiliser access as a hedge against dependence on Russian supply. As a result, the offer balances cost relief for industry with protection for politically sensitive sectors. Final approval still requires the European Parliament and member states.

The commission expects the US to uphold a 15pc tariff ceiling on EU cars and parts once the deal is approved. Moreover, Washington would apply the ceiling retroactively from 1 August under the EU-US joint statement. Therefore, automakers could claw back costs tied to recent tariff uncertainty. Implementation details on rules of origin and monitoring will determine the real-world value.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The offer steers relief toward energy-intensive value chains while ring-fencing farm sensitivities. Watch how TRQ administration, rules of origin and the auto tariff ceiling interact; frictions there can erase headline gains. If fertiliser flows shift toward US supply, European ammonia and nitrate producers may push harder for safeguards.

Trump Metal Tariff Policy Reshapes Costs for Derivative Products

Trump

Trump metal tariff policy now changes how the United States taxes many imported metal goods. The White House replaced the older content-based approach with a simpler flat tariff structure for derivative products. Under the new Trump metal tariff policy, many steel, aluminum, and copper derivative imports will face a 25pc duty on full product value from 6 April. As a result, import costs may rise sharply for products with relatively low metal content.

The policy creates a clear split between derivative goods and primary metal products. Finished copper, aluminum sheet, steel coils, rebar, and steel pipe and tube will still face 50pc tariffs. However, many downstream consumer and industrial products will move to a 25pc rate instead of the earlier 50pc duty applied only to metal content. Therefore, Trump metal tariff policy now reaches deeper into finished goods pricing and sourcing decisions.

The White House also introduced new carve-outs and incentives inside the tariff framework. Products made abroad entirely with US steel, aluminum, and copper will face only a 10pc rate. Items containing 15pc or less of any of those metals will no longer be subject to Section 232 metal tariffs. Consequently, the new structure appears designed to reward US metal usage while pushing importers to rethink product composition.

Section 232 Metal Tariffs Now Favor Simplicity Over Precision

Section 232 metal tariffs are now easier to administer, but they may produce uneven commercial effects. The previous system taxed only the metal content of derivative products at 50pc. The new approach applies a flat 25pc tariff to the full value of the imported item. That makes customs assessment simpler, but it may raise effective tariff burdens on products where metal represents a smaller share of value.

This change matters most for downstream manufacturers and importers of fabricated goods. Metal cookware, kitchen stoves, telecommunications conductors, and tractor parts are among the items now covered at the 25pc rate. These products may face higher landed costs even if their embedded metal value is limited. As a result, Section 232 metal tariffs could now influence a wider group of industrial and consumer supply chains.

The revised structure also carries strategic messaging. The administration is using tariff design not only to protect primary metal producers, but also to direct purchasing behavior downstream. By lowering duties on products made entirely with US metals, Washington is trying to strengthen domestic material pull-through. Therefore, the tariff system is becoming a broader industrial policy tool rather than a narrow border measure.

Industrial Equipment Tariffs Show a Longer-Term Domestic Buildout Strategy

Industrial equipment tariffs reveal a second policy objective beyond import protection. Trump said metal-intensive industrial and electric grid equipment will face a 15pc tariff through 2027. This lower rate suggests the administration wants to balance domestic buildout goals with the need to keep key infrastructure investment moving. Meanwhile, it still preserves a protection premium for US-based manufacturers.

The policy also reflects how tariff strategy is becoming more selective. Primary metals remain heavily protected at 50pc. Derivative products move to 25pc. Strategic industrial and grid equipment gets a reduced 15pc rate. That layered approach suggests policymakers are trying to protect domestic capacity without creating the same level of cost shock across all metal-intensive sectors.

US producers will likely welcome the new framework. The White House pointed to stronger steel and aluminum plant utilization as evidence that tariffs are working. Industry groups such as the American Iron and Steel Institute also praised the updated system. However, downstream users may now face tougher procurement choices as the tariff burden shifts into finished and semi-finished products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy change is more important than it first appears. It moves tariff pressure further down the value chain and makes metal sourcing strategy more visible in finished goods economics. If companies cannot redesign products or secure US metal inputs, the new tariff structure could widen cost pressure across manufacturing and infrastructure markets.

🇺🇸 Japan’s Auto Industry Faces Crossroads Over US Tariff Strategy

🇺🇸 Japan’s

Tariff Pressures Stir Strategic Choices for Japanese Automakers

Focus Keyphrase: US auto tariffs impact on Japanese car industry

Japan’s automotive sector is at a critical juncture due to the 25% US import tariff imposed on April 3. Although the immediate impact has been muted, the industry is bracing for difficult decisions ahead.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Meti) reported on April 18 that Japanese carmakers haven’t yet seen significant fallout, thanks to existing inventories shipped before the tariffs took effect. However, manufacturers are now debating whether to pass on the cost to US consumers or absorb the losses.

Balancing Price and Demand

Raising prices risks dampening US demand — a major export destination accounting for over one-third of Japan’s vehicle exports. But absorbing the tariff costs would squeeze profit margins, especially for auto parts manufacturers, who are already under pressure to cut prices.

Meti’s survey noted growing concerns among component producers about production cuts if US demand falters. Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association chairperson Masanori Katayama hinted at production adjustments if the tariff persists.

Diplomatic Path Remains Murky

Japan and the US held ministerial talks on April 17, yet no clear resolutions emerged. Another round is planned this month. Still, analysts say the talks may stall unless the US addresses its auto trade deficit with Japan — a longstanding issue for former President Donald Trump, who has been vocal about the imbalance.

In 2024, Japan exported around 1.3 million passenger vehicles to the US, while importing only 23,000 US cars in 2023 — a stark contrast fueling trade friction.

Whether Japan’s carmakers cut production, raise prices, or find alternatives will shape the trajectory of its auto trade relationship with the US.

US Tariffs on Chinese Lithium-Ion Batteries Set to Reach 82.4%

Chinese Lithium-Ion Batteries

New Tariff Policy to Significantly Impact the EV Battery Market

US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies will result in a substantial increase in the import tariff on batteries from China, with lithium-ion batteries facing a sharp rise to 82.4%. This change, effective April 5, 2025, is set to impact the importation of both electric vehicle (EV) and non-EV lithium-ion batteries, a move likely to affect various industries reliant on these energy storage systems.

The Impact of the 82.4% Tariff on Lithium-Ion Batteries

The new tariff structure applies a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports, pushing the total tariff on lithium-ion EV batteries to 82.4%. Non-EV batteries will face a lower, but still substantial, tariff of 64.9% until January 2026, when it will rise to 82.4%. The new rates will affect not only the electric vehicle industry but also energy storage and consumer electronics, which rely heavily on lithium-ion battery technology.

This sharp tariff increase is a part of broader trade policies aimed at countering China’s trade practices, and it will likely influence the cost of batteries across multiple sectors, leading to higher prices for consumers and manufacturers alike.

Additional Tariffs and the Section 301 Plan

The 82.4% tariff on lithium-ion batteries includes several layers of duties already in place. These include the existing 3.4% duty imposed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, as well as two separate 10% tariffs on Chinese products implemented since Trump’s administration began. Moreover, current Section 301 tariffs on lithium-ion EV batteries are set at 25%, while non-EV batteries are taxed at 7.5%. These tariffs are part of the broader US strategy to address concerns about intellectual property and trade imbalances.

The Biden administration's plan to raise the Section 301 tariff on non-EV batteries to 25% by January 2026 reflects the long-term trade policy direction for China-US relations.

Freeport US Copper Refining Capacity: Tariffs and Miami Smelter Expansion in Focus

Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport is moving to lift Freeport US copper refining capacity as domestic demand and premiums rise. The company is evaluating a Miami, Arizona, smelter expansion to boost throughput. As a result, Freeport US copper refining capacity could increase while import tariffs reshape market spreads. Freeport says it already provides 70% of US refined copper, underscoring the scale of Freeport US copper refining capacity today.

Tariffs, premiums and the Miami smelter opportunity

Freeport could benefit from the announced 50% US copper import tariff. Therefore, higher US premiums may add about $1.7bn annually, according to management. The firm is assessing Miami smelter expansion to capture that uplift. However, the company also expects a 5% cost increase from broader tariffs.

Mixed global production, stronger US volumes and profits

US copper production rose 13% in the second quarter to 336mn lbs. Freeport plans to sell 1.3bn lbs from US operations in 2025. That compares with 1.257bn lbs sold in 2024. Meanwhile, total production fell 7% to 963mn lbs, but sales rose 9% to 1.02bn lbs. South America slipped 10% to 268mn lbs in the quarter. Indonesia declined to 359mn lbs after a smelter fire, though the plant reopened in May. Molybdenum output increased 10% to 22mn lbs, with sales up 5% to 22mn lbs. As a result, quarterly profit improved to $772mn, up from $616mn a year earlier.

Freeport aims to align smelting with mine output as premiums firm. Therefore, a Miami upgrade could reduce reliance on third-party treatment options. In turn, integrated refining may cushion volatility in treatment and refining charges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A Miami smelter expansion would harden US midstream resilience if premiums stay elevated. Watch tariff implementation and domestic demand; both will determine the pace and payback of new refining capacity.

US Tariffs Could Boost Argentina’s Lithium Salts Production

Argentina Lithium

New Tariff Policies May Propel Argentina to the Forefront of Battery Materials Supply

US President Donald Trump’s new tariff measures, announced this week, could significantly impact the global lithium market. While many energy and mineral products, including lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, are exempt from new tariffs, the shift towards more localized battery production in the US could create new opportunities for Argentina's lithium sector. Argentina, with its lower-cost brine assets, could become a key player in the production of battery-grade lithium salts.

Shift in Global Battery Manufacturing and Tariffs Impact

Trump's recent tariff policy introduced significant duties on completed batteries from China, Japan, and South Korea. These duties are likely to accelerate the trend of localizing battery production in the US. Under the Inflation Reduction Act of former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US has already seen a shift toward local manufacturing, with major battery manufacturers like Panasonic, Samsung SDI, Ford, and Toyota planning to open around 10 new battery factories this year.

However, with a lack of domestic mining and processing capacity in the US, the country will increasingly rely on imports for raw materials to meet the demand for battery production. The US currently has only one operating lithium mine, Albemarle's Silver Peak mine in Nevada. Despite producing lithium carbonate and hydroxide, this mine cannot meet the higher purity standards required for battery-grade products needed in electric vehicles (EVs).

Argentina’s Competitive Edge in Lithium Salts Production

Argentina stands out due to its potential to produce high-quality, cost-competitive lithium salts. Brine operations in Argentina are expected to be more efficient and less costly than other South American and spodumene-producing countries. Although brine facilities require higher initial capital costs, their ongoing operational costs are lower than spodumene-based assets, making them an attractive option for global supply chains.

Argentina’s competitive advantage is further strengthened by its 3% royalty tax on lithium mining, compared to the 40% ceiling in Chile, which has a more developed lithium industry. Despite facing a 10% import tariff by the US, Argentina is well-positioned to expand its lithium production to meet the growing demand from battery factories in the US. According to Argentina’s Vice Minister of Energy and Mining, Daniel Gonzalez, "All of Argentina's lithium projects go to battery grade," signaling the country's commitment to producing high-purity lithium products.

While countries like Australia, Brazil, and some African nations rely on China for lithium processing, Argentina's direct production of battery-grade lithium offers it a strategic advantage in the global market.

US tariffs hit Embraer profits as deliveries rise

Embraer

US tariffs hit Embraer profits in the third quarter, even as aircraft deliveries increased. The US tariffs hit Embraer profits by raising parts and components costs across executive aviation and services. As a result, US tariffs hit Embraer profits and forced the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer to absorb extra costs while still investing in growth.

Tariff shock squeezes Embraer’s margins

Embraer reported that US tariffs cost the company $17mn in the third quarter. Most of the hit came from executive aviation, where higher prices for imported parts reduced profitability. Service and support activities also absorbed around $2mn in extra tariff-related costs.

However, the company still delivered 5pc more aircraft than a year earlier. This delivery growth shows robust demand for Embraer jets despite macro headwinds. Even so, net profit fell sharply to $54.4mn, down 75pc year on year and 54pc quarter on quarter. The profit squeeze highlights how quickly tariffs can erode margins in capital-intensive aerospace manufacturing.

The US imposed 50pc tariffs on Brazilian goods in July, directly affecting Embraer’s cost base. Management already signalled during the second-quarter call that tariffs would hit results. Now investors can clearly see the impact in Embraer’s third-quarter numbers.

Negotiations, strategy and electric aircraft investment

Embraer expects tariff pressure to ease if Brazil and the US reach a political agreement. The company pointed to the October meeting between presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump in Kuala Lumpur as an important milestone. Both leaders plan further talks focused on rolling back the extra duties on Brazilian exports.

Meanwhile, Embraer continues to invest in core programmes and future platforms. The group spent $98.6mn on operations and research projects in the quarter, only slightly below last year’s level. Its electric aircraft subsidiary Eve increased investment to $54.8mn, nearly doubling spending to advance urban air mobility solutions.

This strategic focus suggests Embraer will not let short-term tariff shocks derail long-term innovation. However, the company must carefully manage cash flows as it balances R&D, portfolio growth and the drag from higher US import costs. The outcome of US-Brazil negotiations will be critical for earnings visibility over the next few years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Embraer case underlines how quickly trade policy shifts can hit advanced manufacturing, even when end-market demand remains healthy. For aerospace suppliers and metals producers alike, US-Brazil tariff decisions will help determine future sourcing patterns for high-value components and alloy-intensive structures. Investors should watch both diplomatic progress and Embraer’s ability to pass through costs or re-engineer its supply chains.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

EU-US Trade Agreement Moves Toward Approval as Steel and Aluminium Tariff Risks Remain

Steelmaking

EU-US trade agreement approval moved closer after the European Parliament’s trade committee backed legislation to implement the deal reached last July. The committee voted 29-9 with one abstention, signalling a clear majority before the expected plenary vote on 26 March.

The EU-US trade agreement is designed to provide stability in transatlantic trade after years of tariff pressure, industrial disputes, and geopolitical tension. However, the committee’s position shows that Europe wants stronger safeguards before implementation becomes final.

The EU-US trade agreement remains especially important for metals-intensive sectors. Steel, aluminium, machinery, automotive components, and industrial equipment all sit directly inside the tariff debate.

Parliament Seeks Safeguards Against New US Tariffs

The trade committee wants a suspension clause if the US imposes new tariffs on EU states. It also wants implementation to depend on US compliance with the agreement and stronger protection against steel import pressure.

German lawmaker Bernd Lange said the legislation aims to provide stability, but he warned that tariffs imposed on the EU or individual member states over foreign policy decisions would be unacceptable. His comments reflect European concern that trade policy could again become linked to wider political disputes.

The committee’s position also targets the treatment of EU products containing steel or aluminium. Lange called on the US to reduce tariffs on EU products containing less than 50pc steel or aluminium from 50pc to 15pc before the EU completes implementation.

Steel and Aluminium Remain Central to Transatlantic Trade Tensions

Section 232 tariffs remain the key industrial issue. Lange warned that if Section 232 tariffs rise from 10pc to 15pc, many EU products could face effective duties above the 15pc ceiling once most favoured nation tariffs are added.

That risk matters because many manufactured goods contain embedded steel or aluminium. Higher effective tariffs could hit machinery, automotive parts, appliances, industrial components, and downstream manufacturing supply chains.

The committee’s backing still suggests broad support for the deal. Swedish lawmaker Jorgen Warborn said the EU should uphold its commitments, while also calling for safeguards against new US tariffs. That position captures the political balance: Europe wants the stability of the agreement, but not at the cost of accepting future unilateral tariff measures.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU-US trade agreement may reduce uncertainty, but metals remain the stress test for transatlantic trade. Steel and aluminium tariffs are no longer narrow trade tools; they are industrial policy instruments that shape competitiveness across entire manufacturing chains.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill Restart Targets Domestic Tinplate Supply Security

US Steel

US Steel Gary Tin Mill production is set to restart in early 2027 as the integrated steel producer moves to rebuild domestic tin coated steel supply. The idled facility is part of US Steel’s wider Gary Works complex in Indiana.

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill has roughly 500,000 short tons of idled capacity across two production lines. The mill has been offline since 2022, but the company now plans to bring it back after maintenance, equipment inspection, material procurement and workforce preparation.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart costs are estimated at $15mn-20mn. The investment is relatively modest compared with a greenfield project, but the industrial significance is larger because tin coated steel has become a more sensitive domestic supply issue.

The restart comes as US customers seek more dependable local supply for packaging and industrial applications. It also reflects a wider shift toward trade protection, domestic manufacturing resilience and reduced exposure to imported coated steel products.

Trade Cases Support Domestic Tin Coated Steel Production

US Steel framed the restart as a response to domestic tin demand in a more protectionist trade environment. The company said customers are increasingly focused on long-term domestic supply security.

On 9 April, US Steel and the United Steelworkers union filed an antidumping duty case against China, Taiwan and Turkey. The case covers imports of tin and chromium coated sheet steel.

A separate countervailing duty case was also filed against subsidised tin coated steel products from China. These trade actions could support domestic producers if authorities determine that imports are unfairly priced or subsidised.

The timing is important. Restarting the Gary Tin Mill would give US Steel more capacity to serve customers if duties raise import costs or reduce import availability.

Tin coated steel is used in food and beverage packaging, aerosol products and oil filtration goods. These are not speculative markets. They are established industrial and consumer supply chains where reliability, quality and delivery timing matter.

The restart also gives US Steel a stronger position in value-added flat steel. Tinplate and coated sheet require specific finishing capability and customer qualification, making them more specialised than commodity hot-rolled or cold-rolled products.

Packaging and Industrial Buyers Seek Reliable Local Supply

The Gary Tin Mill restart reflects the growing importance of domestic supply in packaging materials. Food and beverage packaging depends on consistent access to tin coated steel, especially for cans and other shelf-stable products.

Aerosol products and oil filtration goods also rely on coated steel for corrosion resistance, formability and product protection. These applications require stable quality and predictable supply from qualified mills.

Domestic buyers have become more sensitive to import risk. Tariffs, antidumping cases, logistics disruption and geopolitical uncertainty can all affect material availability and pricing.

US Steel’s restart could help reduce that risk by returning idled capacity to the market. However, the impact will depend on how smoothly the company completes maintenance and prepares the required workforce.

The early 2027 timeline also matters. Buyers facing uncertainty in 2026 will not see immediate supply relief, but the restart could improve medium-term market confidence.

For the US steel industry, the project shows how idled finishing capacity can regain strategic value under trade protection. Instead of building new capacity from scratch, companies can reactivate existing assets when market conditions and policy support improve.

The broader message is clear. Domestic steel supply security is expanding beyond primary steelmaking. Coated, finished and application-specific steel products are also becoming part of the industrial resilience debate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart shows how trade protection can revive idled downstream steel capacity. The key question is whether domestic buyers will commit enough demand to support the restart beyond the current tariff and trade-case cycle.

Amag aluminium earnings fall in 2Q as US tariffs squeeze margins

Amag aluminium

Amag aluminium earnings fell in the second quarter as US tariffs and higher costs hit profitability. EBITDA dropped 34.7% to €34.6mn while revenue rose 3.5% to €384.8mn. Shipments edged up 0.4% to 110,800t, yet pricing pressure intensified. Meanwhile, the 50% US tariff effective 4 June will weigh more on the second half. As a result, Amag aluminium earnings remain under strain despite stable volumes.

Tariffs and costs pressure all divisions

Tariffs and input inflation affected metals, casting, and rolling. The metals division absorbed higher alumina prices and US import duties. The casting unit faced sharper price pressure for recycled cast alloys. Therefore, the rolling division endured tariff-driven trade flow shifts and market price declines. Elevated energy and labour costs compounded the squeeze on margins and Amag aluminium earnings.

Half-year results and H2 setup

First-half EBITDA fell 15.4% to €80.6mn on revenue up 11.1% to €786.2mn. Shipments increased 2.9% to 220,400t, but profitability lagged volume. The company expects the 50% US tariff to bite harder in H2 2025. Management maintained stable capacity utilisation, yet near-term losses from tariffs and costs cannot be offset. The CEO urged a viable US trade agreement and improved domestic conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff escalation is amplifying European downstream aluminium margin risk just as power and wage bills stay high. Amag’s levers are mix, energy efficiency, and sales re-routing while advocating predictable US-EU trade terms. Watch H2 for the full tariff impact and any relief from alumina and energy costs.

First Solar Tariff Revisions Lift 2025 Sales Guidance and Shift Module Mix

First Solar

First Solar tariff revisions are reshaping 2025 sales plans and regional mix. The company raised guidance after negotiated duties on Asian imports. First Solar tariff revisions also sharpen cost risks and near-term pricing dynamics.

Guidance rises as duties reshape import economics

First Solar tariff revisions include 25pc on Malaysia and 20pc on Vietnam. As a result, management lifted 2025 module sales to 16.7–19.3GW. International sales now target 7.2–9.5GW, up from 6–9.5GW. US-made volumes remain 9.5–9.8GW for 2025. The firm still warns of Section 232 uncertainty on polysilicon. It also monitors a possible 25pc levy on India.

Costs, capacity ramp, and backlog support the outlook

Tariffs could cost $70mn/yr on production and $80–130mn on imports. If customers resist price pass-throughs, First Solar could idle lines. However, capacity ramps in Alabama continue, with Louisiana qualification expected in October. Second-quarter output reached 4.2GW, including 2.4GW in the US. International plants produced 1.8GW in the quarter.

Commercial traction remains solid with a 64GW bookings backlog through 2030. Meanwhile, revenue guidance increased to $4.9–5.7bn for 2025. Second-quarter revenue rose 9pc year on year to $1.1bn. Quarterly profit slipped 2pc to $342mn amid tariff and mix effects.

Policy remains the key swing factor for pricing and margins. US baseline import tariffs sit at 10pc since 5 April. First Solar tariff revisions interact with that floor to influence landed costs. Therefore, international units could flex lower if pass-throughs stall.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff-driven repricing favors domestic thin-film supply in the near term. Yet margin outcomes hinge on pass-through discipline and buyer mix. Watch the India tariff risk and Section 232 actions; either could tighten module spreads again.

SDI aluminum hot-rolled coil for automotive sheet eases US supply crunch

SDI aluminum

SDI aluminum hot-rolled coil for automotive sheet is arriving just as US automakers face a severe supply crunch. The steelmaker produced and qualified aluminum hot band for automotive use in the third quarter, ahead of its original schedule. This SDI aluminum hot-rolled coil for automotive sheet enters the market just after a major fire shut Novelis’ Oswego hot-rolling mill until early 2026. As a result, OEMs struggling to secure body sheet now see SDI’s Columbus, Mississippi mill as a timely alternative source.

Fortuitous ramp-up amid Novelis outage and tariff risks

The Novelis outage has tightened the US automotive sheet market and forced contingency plans that carry heavy costs. The company can import hot band from Europe, but those volumes face 50pc US import tariffs that squeeze margins. Against this backdrop, SDI aluminum hot-rolled coil for automotive sheet offers domestic hot band that avoids tariff penalties. Market participants have also floated the option of Novelis sourcing hot band from US competitors, although the firm has not confirmed this path.

Meanwhile, SDI emphasized that confidentiality agreements limit what it can disclose about specific counterparties. Even so, management highlighted that Aluminum Dynamics has reacted to customer needs “with surprising speed” amid recent supply shocks. The timing of SDI’s ramp-up allows it to backstop the market while accelerating qualification in demanding automotive programs. Therefore, the SDI aluminum hot-rolled coil for automotive sheet story is as much about relationship-building as it is about volume.

Columbus ramps capacity, moves toward higher-margin mix

SDI’s Columbus rolling mill is designed for 650,000 t/yr of flat-rolled aluminum once fully ramped. The company plans to allocate 45pc of output to can sheet, 35pc to automotive and 20pc to industrial markets. This mix positions the new platform squarely in higher-margin end uses where security of supply is critical. Early qualifications in 5754 automotive alloy hot band should help SDI move faster into premium automotive body and structural sheet.

At the same time, SDI is commissioning three of four casthouses producing 3XXX, 5XXX and 6XXX series ingots. It already supplies 3003, 3104 and 5052 flat-rolled products for can and industrial markets, broadening its commercial base. The two tandem mills will start in phases, with the first due in November and the second targeted for early 2026. A new continuous annealing solution heat-treatment (CASH) line is expected in the same window, enabling full automotive-quality finishing.

Operating losses in the aluminum segment widened to $56.5mn in the quarter as ramp-up costs hit the P&L. However, segment revenue still grew by 6.2pc to $71mn as volumes and product scope increased. Management expects that faster certifications and a richer product mix will pull the business toward profitability from 2026 onward. For automakers and Tier 1s, the key takeaway is that US rolling capacity is arriving just when the market needs redundancy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SDI’s move into aluminum comes at an unusually favorable point in the automotive sheet cycle. With Novelis constrained and tariffs complicating import options, qualified domestic hot band carries strategic value beyond price alone. If Columbus hits its product-mix and ramp targets, it could permanently reshape competitive dynamics in North American auto sheet.

EU Prepares Countermeasures Against U.S. Import Tariffs

U.S. Tariffs

The European Union is finalizing a series of countermeasures in response to the U.S.'s decision to impose a 20% tariff on imports, effective April 9. These tariffs are in addition to the existing duties on various goods, particularly steel and aluminum, which have already been heavily impacted by U.S. trade policies. The European Commission is working on a first set of responses, and further actions may be introduced depending on how the tariffs affect EU industries.

EU's Strong Stance Against U.S. Tariffs

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's firm position on combating what it perceives as unfair trade practices. Von der Leyen stated that Europe will not accept "dumping" in its markets, referring to the practice of selling products at artificially low prices. The EU’s commitment to protecting its markets from global overcapacity remains a key aspect of its response. Von der Leyen also expressed disappointment, noting that many Europeans feel let down by their “oldest ally” – a reference to the U.S.

Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals, Energy, and Minerals

The U.S. tariffs, set to begin on April 9, will apply to most foreign imports, with some key exceptions. Energy products, as well as various minerals, including non-ferrous metals, are exempt from the new tariffs. Additionally, oil products, base oils, coal, and some fertilizers and chemicals will not be subject to the new duties. However, the tariff will still target steel, aluminum, and automobiles, industries that have already been under the strain of separate, earlier tariffs.

A Changing Global Trade Landscape

These tariffs are expected to have significant effects on global trade, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on international imports and exports. With many European industries vulnerable to the impact of these tariffs, the EU is preparing to take action to mitigate any economic fallout. The bloc is closely monitoring indirect effects, which could involve shifts in trade patterns and increased pressure on affected sectors.

Conclusion: Europe's Preparedness in a Trade Conflict

As the EU finalizes its countermeasures, the bloc is determined to protect its markets and industries from the negative effects of U.S. tariffs. Although the initial measures focus on steel and aluminum, the broader scope of U.S. tariff policies could continue to challenge global trade dynamics. The EU’s response will likely shape future trade relations between Europe and the U.S. in the coming months.