Cochilco Copper Outlook 2025–2026: Supply Growth Meets Steady Demand

Cochilco

Supply edges higher as project pipeline improves

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 signals modest mine growth. Global mine supply rises 0.5% in 2025 to 22.71mn t. Disruptions in the DRC, Indonesia, and Panama limit gains. However, 2026 supply increases 3.2% to 23.43mn t. New projects in Peru, Zambia, and Canada drive output. Additional lifts come from Indonesia, Mongolia, Canada, and Russia. Chile grows 1.5% in 2025 to 5.58mn t. Chile then advances 3% in 2026 to 5.75mn t. This supports the Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 narrative of gradual normalization.

Demand expands across Asia and the US

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 also highlights resilient consumption. Global refined use gains 2.3% in 2025 to 26.38mn t. Demand then rises 2.4% in 2026 to 27mn t. China remains pivotal at 15.7mn t in 2025. China inches to 15.8mn t in 2026. Renewables and storage projects underpin Chinese demand. India accelerates with 7.5% growth in 2025. India grows 8.5% in 2026 on industrialization and infrastructure. The US adds support through manufacturing and grid investment. Therefore, secular demand remains intact despite cyclical noise.

Market balance stays technically in surplus. Cochilco sees a 51,000t surplus in 2025. The 2026 surplus reaches 65,000t. Last year posted a 67,000t surplus. Therefore, balance is fragile but not tight. Temporary disruptions could erase the cushion. Prices may face mild pressure from surplus. However, structural demand and geopolitics provide support. Cochilco keeps its price view at $9,480/t for 2025–2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cochilco’s base case implies a soft surplus with limited slack. Execution at new mines will matter more than headlines. Watch Indian demand and concentrate availability to gauge upside risk.