Trump 10pc tariffs plan raises fresh uncertainty for global trade

Trump tariffs

Trump 10pc tariffs are emerging as a backup weapon in Washington’s trade arsenal as legal scrutiny intensifies. Trump 10pc tariffs would act as a temporary bridge if the Supreme Court strikes down his 2025 emergency duties, reshaping how the White House uses trade law. For companies exposed to cross-border supply chains, Trump 10pc tariffs add another layer of risk on top of already complex tariff regimes.

Legal uncertainty around Trump 10pc tariffs and emergency powers

The administration is preparing a fallback plan that would immediately impose a temporary 10pc duty on imports if the Supreme Court overturns current emergency tariffs. Officials signal that Trump 10pc tariffs would likely rely on Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows up to 15pc tariffs for 150 days to address balance-of-payments issues. However, any extension beyond that window would require explicit congressional approval, injecting political risk into what has so far been a unilateral tariff strategy.

At the same time, the White House is mapping a second phase based on well-tested authorities such as Section 232 and Section 301. These tools target specific products or countries on national security or unfair trade grounds but require investigations, public consultations and time. As a result, Trump 10pc tariffs would function as a legal stopgap while more targeted measures are built, rather than a permanent framework. The pending Supreme Court decision on the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will determine how far presidents can stretch emergency powers into broad-based tariff policy.

The court’s ruling will directly impact emergency tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China justified by fentanyl-related “economic emergencies,” along with broader duties of 10pc and higher on nearly all US trading partners. It will also affect emergency measures aimed at Brazil and India, where tariffs were tied to alleged speech suppression and Russian crude imports. But tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and auto parts imposed under traditional authorities would remain intact, preserving some of the most consequential industry-specific barriers.

Revenue, refunds and the corporate “tariff overhang”

A critical question troubling even conservative justices is whether sweeping tariffs function as taxes that only Congress may levy. The US Treasury has collected nearly $260bn in customs duties during the first 11 months of Trump’s second term, creating a massive “tariff overhang.” Hundreds of companies have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds, turning the Supreme Court decision into a potential trigger for complex, multi-year repayment disputes.

The administration argues that tariffs are policy instruments, not taxes, and warns that broad refunds would be administratively chaotic and fiscally painful. Trump himself has said repaying duties “would be a complete mess,” signalling that even if the court limits IEEPA, the White House will resist rapid, sweeping restitution. For global manufacturers, traders and end-users, this means that current and historic tariff exposure may remain a financial and legal uncertainty for years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

For metals and industrial supply chains, the Trump 10pc tariffs debate is about far more than headline percentages. It is redefining the legal boundaries of presidential trade power, shaping how future administrations can weaponise tariffs in strategic sectors from steel and aluminium to critical minerals. Boardrooms should treat this not as a one-off legal drama, but as a structural shift toward more politicised, less predictable trade governance.

Ferro-Alloy Resources to Supply V2O5 from Kazakh Project to LL-Resources

Ferro-Alloy Resources

Ferro-Alloy Resources (FAR), a leading vanadium producer, has signed a non-binding offtake term sheet with LL-Resources for the sale of the entire vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) output from Phase 1 of its Balasausqandiq project in southern Kazakhstan. This agreement marks a significant milestone for FAR as it progresses toward becoming a major player in the global vanadium market.

The initial agreement spans six years from the start of production, with an option for extension. This partnership ensures a steady demand for V2O5, a critical material used in steel alloys, aerospace applications, and vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), which are essential for renewable energy storage.

Overview of the Balasausqandiq Vanadium Project

The Balasausqandiq project is a two-phase development targeting an annual output of 22,400 tonnes of V2O5.

• Phase 1: Will process 1.65 million tonnes per year (mn t/yr) of ore.

• Phase 2: Aims to scale up processing to 5 mn t/yr of ore, significantly boosting production capacity.

As of May 2023, the project boasts an indicated mineral resource of 32.9 mn tonnes at an average grade of 0.62% V2O5, equating to 203,364 tonnes of contained V2O5. The ongoing feasibility study for Phase 1 is expected to conclude by Q2 2025, offering greater clarity on production timelines and potential.

Strategic Importance of the Offtake Agreement

The collaboration with LL-Resources provides FAR with a reliable trading partner and reinforces its position in the growing vanadium market. Vanadium pentoxide, particularly in its standard form, is crucial for strengthening steel and as a key component in energy storage systems like VRFBs. The agreement aligns with increasing global demand for critical minerals driven by renewable energy adoption and infrastructure development.

Kazakhstan: A Growing Hub for Vanadium Production

Kazakhstan’s rich mineral resources and strategic location make it a rising hub for vanadium production. The Balasausqandiq project adds to the country’s portfolio of critical materials and underscores the potential for Kazakhstan to play a key role in the global supply chain for critical metals.

Eramet Weda Bay Nickel Quota Cut Raises New Supply Risks for Indonesia

PT Weda Bay Nickel

Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut has become a major new concern for the global nickel market. PT Weda Bay Nickel received a 2026 RKAB quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. That is far below its 42mn wmt allocation in 2025. As a result, Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut is intensifying fears over tighter Indonesian ore supply.

This matters because Weda Bay Nickel is the world’s largest nickel mine. The operation is a joint venture between Eramet and Tsingshan. It also remains the dominant ore supplier to Weda Bay Industrial Park. Therefore, a 70pc quota reduction creates risk far beyond one company.

The company had requested an unchanged 42mn wmt allocation for 2026. That request included 3mn t for its own NPI smelter in Weda Bay. The final decision came in far lower than that level. Consequently, the market now sees a much tighter supply environment than expected.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Supply Faces a Sharper Constraint

Indonesia nickel ore supply is now under stronger pressure as the government tightens RKAB approvals. Jakarta had already signalled a lower national quota of 260mn-270mn t for 2026. The Weda Bay decision now gives that policy a much more concrete impact. As a result, ore tightness is no longer a theory. It is becoming a real operating issue.

Weda Bay Nickel plans to submit another application for a higher quota. That means policy uncertainty is still not fully settled. However, the current reduction already changes market expectations. Therefore, 2026 nickel prices may stay supported while smelters wait for clearer guidance.

Imports may help at the margin, but they cannot fully solve the problem. Weda Bay is too important to replace easily. If ore flows stay constrained, downstream output will likely face pressure. Meanwhile, project timelines could also come under strain.

Weda Bay Industrial Park Could Face Production and Expansion Pressure

Weda Bay Industrial Park is especially exposed because it depends heavily on Weda Bay ore. The site hosts major MHP, NPI, and matte capacity. That includes Huafei and the newly launched Blue Sparking Energy MHP project. Therefore, Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut could affect both current production and future ramp-ups.

The scale of IWIP makes this even more important. The park is projected to produce around 550,000t in nickel metal equivalent in 2025. That makes it Indonesia’s largest nickel production hub, ahead of IMIP. As a result, any ore disruption at Weda Bay has system-wide importance.

The market now faces a new question. Can Indonesia keep downstream growth on track while holding ore supply tighter? That question will shape the next phase of nickel pricing, project execution, and investor confidence. Consequently, the quota decision may become one of the most important nickel policy signals of 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This quota cut matters because it targets the ore source that feeds Indonesia’s most important nickel hub. The key shift is clear. Indonesia is no longer acting only as a volume maximizer. It is acting more like a supply manager, and the nickel market will have to reprice that reality.

Nickel Deficit Forecast Emerges as Indonesia Tightens Ore Supply

Nickel manufacturing

Nickel deficit conditions are expected to return in 2026 as Indonesia tightens ore supply controls and stainless steel demand continues to grow. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts global primary nickel production of 3.715mn t against usage of 3.747mn t, implying a deficit of 32,000t.

The nickel deficit would mark a sharp change after three consecutive years of surplus. The market recorded surpluses of 175,000t in 2023, 116,000t in 2024 and 283,000t in 2025.

The nickel deficit forecast remains modest, but it carries strategic significance because it depends heavily on Indonesian policy. Indonesia has been the main driver of global nickel supply growth, and tighter controls on ore mining could slow the expansion that previously pushed the market into surplus.

The Middle East conflict is adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy prices, inflation pressure and disrupted sulphur flows could affect nickel production costs, especially for high-pressure acid leach operations in Indonesia.

Indonesia Ore Controls Reshape Nickel Supply Growth

Indonesia’s approved nickel ore mining quota for 2026 has been set significantly lower than in 2025. The quota can still be revised, but the initial reduction has already changed market expectations.

The country’s revised mineral benchmark pricing mechanism also took effect on 15 April. The new HPM formula raises base prices for all nickel ore grades and includes cobalt, iron and chromium in the valuation for the first time.

This matters because Indonesian nickel supply is no longer expanding under the same low-cost conditions that drove rapid output growth. Ore access, ore pricing, royalties and contained metal values are all becoming more tightly managed.

The policy impact is not evenly distributed. Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel mine is preparing to enter care and maintenance in May after receiving an initial ore quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. This is far below last year’s final permit of up to 42mn wmt.

In contrast, Nickel Industries received quota approvals of 14.3mn wmt, up from 10.5mn wmt in 2025. This shows that Indonesia’s controls are not simply cutting all supply. They are also reshaping which operators receive ore access.

The quota system could therefore become a major competitive factor. Producers with larger approved volumes may gain stronger operating flexibility, while others face lower utilisation, higher costs or temporary shutdowns.

HPAL producers are especially exposed. These plants require steady limonite ore supply and large volumes of sulphuric acid or sulphur-linked feedstock. Tighter ore availability and higher reagent costs can quickly pressure margins.

Disrupted sulphur flows from the Middle East conflict have raised concern over HPAL feedstock availability. This is important because Indonesian HPAL projects have become key suppliers of mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material production.

If sulphur costs remain elevated and ore prices rise under the new HPM formula, HPAL production costs could increase materially. That would weaken the low-cost supply advantage that helped Indonesia dominate battery-linked nickel intermediates.

Stainless Steel Supports Demand as Batteries Disappoint

Stainless steel remains the main support for nickel demand. INSG said the stainless steel sector grew in 2025 and is expected to expand further in 2026.

This is important because stainless steel still consumes far more nickel than the battery sector. Demand from stainless steel, alloys and industrial uses continues to anchor the primary nickel market.

Battery demand has grown more slowly than earlier expectations. Lithium iron phosphate chemistries have gained market share, reducing nickel intensity in parts of the electric vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle demand has also outpaced fully battery-electric vehicle demand in some markets. This has limited the speed at which nickel-rich battery chemistries absorb new supply.

The result is a market caught between two forces. Supply growth is slowing because of Indonesian ore controls and higher input costs. However, battery demand is not rising fast enough to create a large structural shortage.

This makes the 2026 nickel deficit highly sensitive to policy and disruption. If Indonesia raises quotas, supply could recover. If sulphur, energy or ore costs worsen, the deficit could deepen.

The forecast also changes the market narrative. Nickel has spent recent years under pressure from surplus supply and rising inventories. A move into deficit, even a small one, could stabilise sentiment and support prices.

Still, the deficit is not yet a sign of broad scarcity. It is a warning that Indonesia’s supply discipline, not battery demand alone, is now determining the market balance.

For producers, cost control and ore access will become more important. For buyers, the focus will shift toward supplier reliability, feedstock route and exposure to Indonesian policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The nickel market is not tightening because batteries suddenly absorbed the surplus. It is tightening because Indonesia is putting discipline into ore supply while HPAL costs rise. That makes the nickel deficit more policy-driven than demand-driven.

Blue Moon tungsten project revives Nevada’s Springer critical metals hub

Blue Moon Metals

Blue Moon tungsten project ambitions are advancing with the planned acquisition of Nevada’s historic Springer mine and mill. The Blue Moon tungsten project will give the Canadian producer a ready-built processing base in Pershing County, focused on high-grade tungsten. As a result, the Blue Moon tungsten project positions the company inside the US critical minerals value chain at a time of rising strategic demand.

Blue Moon tungsten project anchors US strategic tungsten capacity

The Springer mine holds an indicated resource of 355,000t at 0.537pc tungsten trioxide. This grade underpins the Blue Moon tungsten project and offers meaningful scale for a niche metal. However, the strategic value extends far beyond ore tonnage, because the site already includes a tungsten-focused processing circuit.

The existing mill can process about 1,200 t/d of tungsten concentrates and ammonium paratungstate (APT). Therefore, the Blue Moon tungsten project inherits not only ore but also midstream capability, shortening the development timeline. In a tight tungsten market, having integrated mine and APT capacity in Nevada strengthens US supply security.

Springer mill opens multi-metal pathway for Blue Moon

The Springer mill can be modified to treat other critical metals, creating optionality for Blue Moon. The company has flagged its Blue Moon zinc-copper mine in California as a potential feedstock source. As a result, Springer could evolve into a regional hub for underground critical metals mines in the western US.

By paying $500,000 for exclusive rights, Blue Moon secured a low-cost entry into an existing asset base. Meanwhile, the ability to adapt the mill for multiple products could improve project economics and risk diversification. This flexibility will matter if tungsten prices fluctuate or if demand for other critical metals accelerates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Turning Springer into a multi-metal critical minerals hub would give Blue Moon leverage far beyond tungsten alone. The key question is whether the company can finance refurbishment and secure steady feedstock flows quickly enough to capture strategic premiums. If executed well, this could become a template for repurposing legacy US assets into modern critical metals platforms.

US EV Charger Domestic Content Rule Could Reshape Charging Supply Chains

US, EV Charger

US EV charger domestic content rule could significantly reshape the charging equipment market. The US Department of Transportation has proposed raising domestic content requirements from 55pc to 100pc for federally funded EV chargers. The proposal would also end the Buy America public interest waiver introduced in 2023. As a result, the US EV charger domestic content rule could force a major reset in sourcing, assembly, and project execution.

This matters because federally funded EV chargers sit at the center of public charging expansion in the United States. If the proposal is adopted, projects in the acquisition or installation phase would need final assembly in the US and fully domestic components. That would sharply tighten compliance expectations. Therefore, the US EV charger domestic content rule would go well beyond a minor procurement change.

The proposal also arrives against a weak deployment backdrop. The Biden administration allocated $7.5bn in 2021 for EV charging stations. Yet only eight operational charging stations had been installed by June 2024. Consequently, the new rule raises a core policy question: will stricter domestic sourcing accelerate industrial buildout or slow charger deployment further?

Buy America EV Chargers Policy Now Favors Full Domestic Sourcing

Buy America EV chargers policy is clearly moving toward a far stricter interpretation. The earlier waiver allowed federally backed projects to move forward under more flexible sourcing rules. Removing that waiver would end that transition path. As a result, manufacturers and project developers would face a much narrower compliance window.

This shift could support domestic manufacturing if suppliers can scale quickly enough. US-based charger assembly, components, and sub-systems could all benefit from stronger policy protection. However, the transition may be difficult for companies still relying on mixed international supply chains. Therefore, Buy America EV chargers policy may reward a small group of prepared suppliers first.

The biggest challenge may be component depth. Final assembly in the US is one requirement. Full US-made EV charger components is a much harder threshold. That means the rule could expose weak points in power electronics, connectors, enclosures, and other charging hardware inputs. Meanwhile, compliance verification may become more complex for project owners.

Federally Funded EV Chargers Could Face a New Trade-Off

Federally funded EV chargers may now face a sharper trade-off between industrial policy and rollout speed. A 100pc domestic content rule can strengthen US manufacturing intent. But it can also reduce supplier flexibility and raise procurement friction. As a result, charger deployment timelines may face new pressure during the transition.

That trade-off matters because the current buildout has already moved slowly. Public charging expansion depends not only on funding, but also on permitting, grid connection, equipment supply, and contractor readiness. A stricter sourcing rule adds one more layer to that process. Therefore, federally funded EV chargers may become a test case for how far domestic content policy can go without harming project delivery.

The broader industrial signal is still important. Washington appears to be treating EV charging infrastructure as a strategic manufacturing category, not only a transport category. That places chargers closer to the wider US reshoring agenda. Consequently, the US EV charger domestic content rule could influence how future clean infrastructure policies are designed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This proposal matters because it turns EV chargers into a more explicit industrial policy tool. The US is no longer only trying to fund charging growth. It is trying to localize the entire equipment chain behind that growth. If domestic suppliers cannot scale fast enough, deployment may slow before it strengthens.

Ecuador Copper Concentrate Exports Rise as Mirador Recovers From Power Crisis

Ecuador Copper mining

Ecuador copper concentrate exports rose strongly in 2025 as mining output recovered from the country’s severe 2024 energy crisis. The rebound shows how power reliability has become a direct supply-chain issue for copper producers, especially in hydro-dependent mining jurisdictions.

Ecuador exported about 670,740t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 28pc from 523,660t in 2024. Export revenue increased even faster, rising 48pc to about $1.73bn as average export prices climbed 16pc to $2,572/t. The recovery helped Ecuador copper concentrate exports regain momentum after blackouts severely disrupted mine operations a year earlier.

The country shipped its highest monthly volume in November, when copper concentrate exports reached almost 80,630t. That was far above the same month in 2024, when power shortages had sharply reduced industrial activity. However, the 2025 increase partly reflects the unusually weak comparison base created by Ecuador’s previous electricity crisis.

Mirador Remains Central to Ecuador’s Copper Export Growth

Mirador remains the dominant driver of Ecuador copper concentrate exports because it produces about 90pc of the country’s exported concentrate. The mine, operated by Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, was heavily affected in 2024 when the government disconnected large industrial users from the national grid to protect residential power supply.

The disruption exposed a structural risk in Ecuador’s mining model. The country faced 88 days of scheduled blackouts between September and December 2024 after a severe dry season reduced output from major hydroelectric plants. Large mines were forced to rely on limited thermoelectric capacity, which was not enough to fully cover operating requirements.

China remained by far the main destination for Ecuador’s copper concentrate in 2025, receiving around 96.5pc of exports. Peru received 3.5pc, while South Korea accounted for only 0.1pc. This concentration highlights Ecuador’s role as a China-facing copper concentrate supplier, but it also shows limited customer diversification.

Energy Security Becomes the Key Condition for Expansion

Ecuador’s 2026 copper export outlook will depend heavily on negotiations with Ecsa over development of the Mirador Norte deposit. The new pit could double Ecsa’s current copper production by 2028, making it one of the most important near-term growth levers for Ecuador’s mining sector.

The government is seeking additional power security before allowing expansion to proceed. Ecsa is being required to install 90MW of additional thermoelectric generation so Mirador Norte can operate without relying on the national grid during another energy crisis. The company currently has 40MW installed to meet its power needs.

This requirement reflects a broader shift in copper project development. Governments and investors are no longer looking only at ore bodies, grades, and processing capacity. They are also testing whether mines can withstand power stress, water risk, and infrastructure shocks. For Ecuador, solving that energy constraint will be essential if the country wants to become a more reliable copper supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador’s copper rebound is less about new supply and more about restored operating continuity. The Mirador Norte decision will show whether the country can convert geological potential into dependable copper growth under tougher energy-security conditions.

Low Zinc TCs Signal Persistent Pressure on Global Smelters

Teck Resources

Low zinc TCs are showing that zinc concentrate supply remains tight across the global market. Smelters are still competing for limited feedstock, keeping treatment charges far below levels that support strong processing margins.

The 2026 benchmark zinc smelter treatment charge between Korea Zinc and Teck Resources has been set at $85 per tonne. That is $5 per tonne higher than last year’s historic low, but it remains sharply below previous market levels.

The benchmark is still 48% lower than the 2024 level and 69% lower than the 2023 level. This means the modest year-on-year increase does not signal a real recovery in smelter economics.

Zinc Concentrate Supply Remains the Main Constraint

Zinc concentrate supply continues to define the market balance. The annual Korea Zinc and Teck Resources settlement is widely followed across the global zinc industry, with regional discounts or premiums applied by individual buyers and sellers.

Smelters remain exposed because the new benchmark does not provide attractive margins. High energy costs, delayed plant ramp-ups, and limited concentrate availability are keeping refined zinc output under pressure.

Producers with internal mine supply or strong recycled feed positions are better protected. Boliden, for example, expects to source most of its smelter feed internally, reducing its exposure to volatile third-party concentrate markets.

Chinese Spot TCs Show Ongoing Feedstock Competition

Chinese spot TCs also point to persistent tightness. Imported zinc concentrate spot treatment charges in China were recently assessed at $15–28 per dry metric tonne, far below quarterly guidance levels.

The gap between spot TCs and guidance reflects intense competition among Chinese smelters. Several suppliers have limited imported concentrate stocks, while winter shutdowns at mines in northern China have kept feed availability constrained.

China’s zinc concentrate imports rose 30% year on year to 2.58 million tonnes in 2025. Strong import demand, combined with surplus refined metal exports, has increased pressure on spot TCs as smelters fight for concentrate.

The emergence of negative treatment charges in late 2024 showed how severe the squeeze had become. In that market structure, smelters effectively paid mining companies to secure feedstock, highlighting the imbalance between smelting capacity and available concentrate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Low zinc TCs show that zinc’s pressure point is not only demand, but feedstock control. Smelters with captive mines, recycled inputs, or flexible procurement will hold a structural advantage while concentrate remains scarce.

DRC Cobalt Stockpile Plan Adds New Uncertainty to Export Quota System

DRC Cobalt

DRC cobalt stockpile plans could add another layer of uncertainty to a market already adjusting to the country’s export quota system. The Democratic Republic of Congo plans to create a state-controlled strategic reserve for cobalt, coltan and germanium, with cobalt expected to be the main focus because of its scale and strategic role.

The DRC cobalt stockpile will be managed by state-controlled mining company Gecamines and regulator Arecoms. The government said the reserve is intended to stabilise markets and strengthen national control over key minerals.

The DRC cobalt stockpile plan comes as the country tries to raise cobalt hydroxide exports toward a 7,500 t/month quota. That quota was introduced in October after an eight-month export ban, but exports have so far recovered only gradually.

This creates a more complicated operating environment for producers, traders and battery materials buyers. Cobalt units may now face two competing channels: export clearance under the quota system or diversion into state-controlled storage.

Export Quota Ramp-Up Remains Slow and Unclear

The DRC is trying to increase cobalt exports after months of disruption, but the quota system is still moving slowly. Around 7,000t of cobalt-contained material was reportedly cleared for export last month, although it remains unclear whether those volumes have crossed the border.

January exports were much lower. Around 1,000t of cobalt contained in hydroxide was exported during the month, far below the 7,500 t/month quota level.

An estimated 3,000t of cobalt-contained material also remains held inside the country awaiting decisions on allocation. This shows that administrative approval, quota allocation and physical logistics remain key constraints.

The new stockpile could add friction to this system. Producers may need to determine which material should be submitted for export clearance and which material may be directed into reserve storage.

This matters because cobalt hydroxide supply from the DRC is critical for global battery and superalloy supply chains. The country remains the dominant source of cobalt units for refiners, precursor makers, cathode producers and high-performance alloy manufacturers.

Any delay in DRC cobalt exports can affect feedstock availability outside the country. It can also influence cobalt hydroxide payables, refined cobalt prices and procurement strategies for downstream users.

The DRC government’s objective is clear. It wants more control over strategic minerals and greater influence over market flows. But the transition from export ban to quota system and now strategic stockpile introduces uncertainty for commercial counterparties.

For producers, the main issue is predictability. Mine operators and processors need to know how much material can be exported, how quickly clearances will be issued and whether stockpile obligations will reduce available sales volumes.

For traders, the uncertainty affects logistics and financing. Material held inside the country can create delays in shipping, documentation, payment cycles and customer delivery schedules.

For buyers, the risk is supply disruption. Cobalt consumers may need to hold larger inventories or diversify supply where possible, although alternative large-scale sources remain limited.

Stockpile Mechanics Could Decide Market Impact

The DRC government has not yet clarified how the strategic reserve will operate. The decree does not explain how stockpiled cobalt will be purchased, paid for or released back into the market.

This lack of detail is the most important issue for market participants. A strategic reserve can stabilise supply if it is transparent and predictable. It can also disrupt trade if it removes material from the market without clear pricing, payment and release rules.

Producers do not yet know whether cobalt earmarked for the reserve will remain on their balance sheets or be effectively requisitioned by the state. This distinction matters for accounting, working capital and sales planning.

There is also no clear communication on pricing. If material is diverted into the stockpile, producers need to know whether payment will be based on market prices, official formulas or negotiated values.

Payment timing is equally important. Delayed payment for stockpiled cobalt could strain cash flow, especially for producers already managing export restrictions and logistics delays.

The planned reserve also includes coltan and germanium. These materials have strategic value in electronics, defence, semiconductors and critical minerals supply chains. However, cobalt will dominate attention because of its larger volumes and direct link to battery supply.

The policy reflects a wider trend among resource-rich countries. Governments are seeking more control over minerals that have strategic value in energy transition, defence and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

For the DRC, cobalt stockpiling could provide market leverage. It could allow the government to manage supply release, support prices or protect domestic interests during periods of oversupply.

However, too much uncertainty could have the opposite effect. If producers and buyers cannot understand how the reserve works, they may price in additional risk or delay transactions.

The stockpile may also complicate the DRC’s attempt to normalise exports after the ban. Export quotas already require allocation decisions. Adding reserve obligations could slow the recovery unless the government clearly separates stockpile volumes from commercial export flows.

For the global cobalt market, the key question is whether the reserve removes significant material from export availability. If it does, cobalt supply outside the DRC could tighten even while official quota volumes suggest exports should rise.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC cobalt stockpile plan shows that cobalt policy is shifting from export control to active state management. The strategy may increase national leverage, but without clear rules on pricing, ownership and release timing, it risks adding more uncertainty to an already fragile cobalt supply chain.

Indonesia Nickel Mining Quota Approval Raises Ore Supply Uncertainty

ESDM

Indonesia nickel mining quota approvals for 2026 have reached only 190mn-200mn t so far, leaving the market below the government’s earlier signalled target of 260mn-270mn t. The slower approval process has increased uncertainty over nickel ore availability and future smelter operating rates.

The approved volume remains far below the 379mn t quota granted for 2025. Indonesia had already been expected to cut this year’s RKAB quota by about one-third, but the current approved level is still tighter than many market participants expected.

Indonesia nickel mining quota uncertainty matters because the country remains the world’s dominant nickel supply hub. Any shortage of approved mining volumes could raise ore prices, reduce feedstock availability and pressure nickel pig iron, ferronickel and HPAL operations.

RKAB Delays Could Tighten Nickel Ore Availability

The RKAB approval process is moving more slowly than expected, creating operational uncertainty for miners and smelters. Companies without confirmed 2026 RKAB approvals must halt mining after the 31 March cut-off, unless new approvals are granted.

The ESDM previously allowed nickel firms to continue mining using up to 25% of their 2026 production plan until 31 March. That temporary mechanism helped avoid an immediate supply shock, but the expiration of the allowance now increases pressure on companies still waiting for approval.

Several mining firms plan to submit fresh applications for higher quotas, with reviews expected in July. This means Indonesia nickel mining quota volumes could still rise later in the year, but near-term ore availability remains exposed to administrative timing.

Sulphur and Fuel Risks Add Pressure to HPAL Operations

Indonesia’s nickel industry also faces external supply risks from fuel oil and sulphur disruptions linked to Middle East instability. The issue is especially important for HPAL plants, which rely heavily on sulphuric acid production and energy-intensive processing.

The Middle East supplies about 75% of Indonesia’s sulphur imports. If sulphur or fuel oil availability tightens, HPAL producers may face higher operating costs or even output curtailments.

Imports may offset part of the nickel ore quota shortfall, but market participants do not expect overseas material to fully meet smelter demand. Some producers may therefore face reduced operating rates if domestic quota approvals remain limited.

Indonesia is also considering tighter compliance rules. Tax compliance may become a requirement for RKAB submissions from 2027, although it remains unclear whether this will affect the 2026 process.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia nickel mining quota delays show that policy administration can become a direct supply risk in the nickel market. The bigger issue is whether Indonesia can balance resource control, smelter demand and HPAL feedstock security without creating avoidable price volatility.

US-EU Energy Deal Sets Unrealistic $250bn Purchase Target

US-EU

The US-EU energy deal commits Europe to $250bn a year in US energy. The US-EU energy deal far exceeds current export capacity. As a result, the US-EU energy deal risks colliding with market realities and logistics.

Why the $250bn target strains capacity

EU officials hint that LNG will anchor purchases. However, 2024 US energy exports to the EU totaled only $74.3bn. Meeting $250bn would require volumes far above today’s flows. At current WTI prices, crude to Europe would need to exceed 10mn b/d. That equals roughly 75% of total US output. LNG sales were $12.2bn last year, or 1.7 Tcf equivalent. Raising both oil and LNG to the target looks operationally daunting.

Parallels to the 2020 China pact

The deal echoes the 2020 US-China “Phase 1” energy targets. Those goals proved unenforceable as prices and demand shifted. Meanwhile, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic still called the $250bn “achievable.” The White House framed the pact as boosting US “energy dominance.” Yet enforcement will face the same price and volume volatility risks. China never met its 2020 energy targets, despite headline commitments.

European purchases would also aim to displace Russian gas and crude. However, infrastructure, contracts, and regas capacity limit rapid substitution. Price declines raise the volume hurdle even higher. Political timelines rarely align with pipelines, tankers, and terminals. Therefore, execution risk remains high despite policy intent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Policy ambition does not negate physics, terminals, or price cycles. Unless prices soar or new capacity arrives fast, the headline figure will underdeliver. Watch for softer “best-efforts” language or phased metrics replacing hard targets.

Stagnation in Copper Production at Codelco Amidst Broader Chilean Growth

Codelco

In a surprising turn of events, Codelco, the state-run mining giant of Chile, reported no change in its copper production for October this year, according to the latest data from the Chilean copper commission, Cochilco. Despite this stagnation, overall copper production within Chile showcased a noticeable increase, highlighting a divergent trend between the national giant and other producers.

Codelco's Performance: A Closer Look

In detail, Codelco's five active copper mines collectively maintained their output at 127,900 metric tonnes in October, mirroring the production levels of October 2023. This static performance is part of a broader context where Codelco has seen a year-to-date production decrease of 4.5%, with a total of 1.115 million tonnes produced so far, compared to the previous year.

Chile's Broader Copper Market

Contrasting with Codelco’s flat output, BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, experienced a significant production boost. It reported a 22% increase, with production reaching 108,000 tonnes in October. This spike contributed substantially to Chile's total copper production, which increased by 6.35% to 488,900 tonnes compared to the same month last year.

The divergence in production trends highlights the varying operational efficiencies and possibly differing geological challenges faced by these entities. This scenario paints a complex picture of Chile's copper sector, where not all players are experiencing growth uniformly.

China Nuclear Capacity Expansion Strengthens Demand for Hafnium and Zirconium

the China Nuclear Energy

China nuclear capacity continues to expand as the country retains the global lead in nuclear power construction. China currently operates 60 commercial nuclear power units and has another 36 units under construction, according to the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association.

The scale of China nuclear capacity growth is significant for energy security and industrial materials demand. Projects under construction in China account for more than half of global nuclear capacity currently being built.

China nuclear capacity is also set to grow further because 16 additional units have already received approvals and are awaiting construction. The country has started construction on two nuclear power units so far this year and plans to complete seven units within the year.

The country’s installed nuclear power capacity has reached 125GW, ranking first globally, according to the association. This keeps China at the centre of global nuclear construction and strengthens downstream demand for strategic metals used in reactor systems.

Nuclear Buildout Raises Demand for Hafnium and Zirconium

China’s nuclear expansion is important for several minor metals, especially hafnium and zirconium. These materials sit deep inside the nuclear supply chain, but they are critical to reactor performance and safety.

Hafnium is mainly used in control rods for nuclear power plants. It has strong neutron absorption properties, making it valuable for regulating fission reactions inside reactors.

Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge is used as a core structural material for fuel assemblies. Zirconium is valued in nuclear systems because it has low neutron absorption and strong corrosion resistance under reactor operating conditions.

The growth in nuclear construction therefore creates direct demand for high-purity and nuclear-qualified materials. These materials require strict processing, quality control and certification, which makes supply more specialized than ordinary industrial metals.

China’s large buildout also creates a strategic demand signal for upstream zirconium minerals, zirconium sponge, hafnium separation and downstream nuclear components. As more units move from approval to construction and commissioning, material procurement will become more important.

Export Controls Tighten Strategic Minor Metals Supply

The nuclear sector is not the only source of demand for hafnium. Industrial gas turbines also use hafnium in high-performance alloy systems, creating additional competition for supply.

Prices have risen because of stronger demand from nuclear power and industrial gas turbine sectors, while supply has tightened because of reduced exports from China. This makes hafnium a more visible strategic material in global industrial supply chains.

China has included hafnium in its strict dual-use item export control scheme. This constrains global availability and increases supply risk for users outside China.

The issue highlights a broader trend in critical materials. Small-volume metals can become major chokepoints when they support high-value sectors such as nuclear power, aerospace, defence, turbines and advanced manufacturing.

For global nuclear developers, the supply chain challenge extends beyond uranium. Reactor construction also depends on certified zirconium, hafnium, specialty alloys, forgings, control rod materials and precision components.

China’s nuclear construction lead therefore has two effects. It supports domestic energy security while also increasing China’s influence over the strategic materials used in nuclear and high-temperature industrial applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s nuclear buildout shows how energy security is becoming a materials security issue. Hafnium and nuclear-grade zirconium may be small-volume markets, but they are critical bottlenecks for reactors, turbines and strategic industrial systems.

EU Launches Review of Steel Import Safeguard Tariffs: Changes Expected from April 2025

The European Commission(EC)

The European Commission(EC) has officially launched a review of its steel import safeguard tariff-rate quotas, with proposed changes to take effect from 1 April 2025. This review, which follows a request by 13 EU member states on 29 November 2024, aims to address the evolving dynamics of steel imports into the EU. The focus will be on adjusting quotas, particularly in light of a contraction in EU demand and a rise in Chinese steel exports, which have led to shifts in trade flows.

Key Changes Under Review for Steel Safeguard Tariffs

The EC's review will examine several key aspects of the current steel import safeguard measures. Among the possible changes is the introduction of a new quota volume. EU steel producers have expressed concerns that current duty-free quota volumes no longer align with the demand in the EU, with some regions experiencing gaps due to shrinking consumption. Additionally, an increase in Chinese steel exports has led to an influx of steel from other countries into the EU market, further complicating the allocation of quotas.

The EC will reassess how these quotas are managed and allocated. Producers and users have been invited to provide feedback via a questionnaire, which must be submitted by 10 January 2025. Some of the other factors under evaluation include the exclusion of certain developing countries from the safeguard measures based on their 2024 imports, as well as potential updates to the level of liberalization within the quotas.

The steel safeguard measures, which were first introduced provisionally in 2018, became definitive in 2019. Initially set for a three-year period, they were extended for another year until June 2024 and then further extended until June 2026. Recent updates to these measures have had a noticeable impact on trade, particularly with the cap on hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rod quotas from ‘other countries’ being limited to 15% per origin. This has resulted in a significant reduction in import opportunities, especially for smaller markets.

The Impact of the Quota Review on Steel Imports

The current steel import safeguard measures have significantly impacted trade flows within the EU. In previous years, quotas would exhaust quickly after being reset each quarter, but the 15% cap on 'other countries' volumes has left a larger portion of the quotas underused. While there were expectations that some countries, like South Korea, could increase exports to the EU in April 2025 when residual quota volumes become available, the upcoming review could alter this outlook.

With EU imports largely unaffected by these changes so far due to a rush to buy final volumes before the duties apply, the redistribution of quotas will be a key focus of the review. The EC aims to ensure that the safeguard measures strike a balance between protecting EU producers and allowing for sufficient import access to meet demand. These changes, when finalized, could have significant implications for steel producers and importers alike, influencing trade relationships and steel prices in the EU market.

EASA Certification of Comac C919 Could Take Up to Six Years, Delaying Global Expansion

Comac C919

European Approval for China’s Flagship Jet Hinges on Extended Evaluation Timeline

The EASA certification of Comac C919 will require between three and six years, according to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency. The announcement underscores the regulatory hurdles facing China’s flagship single-aisle jet, which is currently certified only by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Without EASA approval, Comac’s C919 remains restricted to domestic operations, limiting its global commercial ambitions.

International Components, Domestic Ambitions

The C919 incorporates key systems from global suppliers, including CFM International’s LEAP-1C engine, avionics from Honeywell, GE Aerospace, and Collins Aerospace, and structural parts from various European and American firms. Despite this reliance on international technologies, EASA insists that it must independently verify the aircraft’s integration and design before granting certification. Comac has been commended for its transparency and proactive engagement with regulators.

Certification Timeline Reflects Political and Technical Complexities

The extended timeline for EASA certification of Comac C919 reflects both technical scrutiny and geopolitical realities. Comac’s absence from the FAA certification process indicates a strategic focus on Europe as its primary overseas market. However, in a protectionist trade environment, market access remains uncertain. As Comac seeks to challenge Airbus and Boeing in international markets, regulatory acceptance becomes a critical barrier.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EASA certification of Comac C919 will be a litmus test for China’s global aerospace ambitions. While technical hurdles are expected, geopolitical headwinds may ultimately shape how far Comac can go in Western markets.

Tesla Retains Top Spot as Largest BEV Maker in 3Q, GM Gains Ground

Tesla CYBERTRUCK

Tesla continues to lead the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, edging out China's BYD in the third quarter of 2024. Despite a slight dip in year-to-date sales compared to last year, the US carmaker remains the world's largest BEV producer. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) has surpassed Ford to become the second-largest BEV brand in the US, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape.

Tesla and BYD Dominate, But GM Grows Stronger in the US

In the third quarter, Tesla reported global sales of 462,890 units, bringing its year-to-date total to 1.29 million BEVs. This is a small decline from the 1.32 million units sold during the same period last year, reflecting a slower sales pace in the first half of 2024. BYD, Tesla’s closest competitor, has recorded approximately 1.17 million BEV sales so far this year. The Chinese automaker's overall new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, including plug-in hybrids, reached 2.7 million units, demonstrating its robust market presence.

In the US market, GM has made notable gains, capitalizing on Tesla's declining market share. Tesla's US market share slipped to 49.7% in the second quarter, a significant drop from its 74.8% share in early 2022. GM's BEV sales rose by 60% year-over-year and 46% quarter-over-quarter, with 32,195 units sold in the third quarter. This growth came despite a 2.2% dip in GM’s overall car sales during the same period. The company's focus on affordable models, including the newly launched Equinox EV, has proven effective. Starting at around $35,000 and eligible for tax credits that bring the price down to as low as $27,495, the Equinox EV is currently the most affordable electric vehicle in the US.

For comparison, Tesla's most affordable Model Y starts at approximately $37,500 after tax credits, though used models can be found for as low as $25,000. The affordability of these models, aided by the US Inflation Reduction Act, which provides a $7,500 tax credit for selected US-made EVs, has been a critical factor in boosting sales. As of October 1, the tax credit has saved US buyers over $2 billion this year.

Ford, now the third-largest BEV brand in the US, sold 23,509 units in the third quarter. Although this represents a 12% year-over-year increase, sales were down 2% from the previous quarter. The automaker is shifting its strategy, planning to introduce a new electric pickup in 2027 while scaling back plans for larger electric SUVs to focus on smaller, more affordable models, a move aimed at staying competitive with GM’s expanding BEV lineup.

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender secures world’s biggest hydropower project

Baogang rare earth

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender underscores China’s push into strategic infrastructure. The steelmaker will supply 62,000t for the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dam. As a result, Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender signals rising demand for special steels and rare earth inputs.

Scope and investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo dam

China began constructing the world’s biggest hydropower dam on 19 July. The project sits in Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The investment totals Yn1.2 trillion, the tender announcement said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect 4–6mn t of special steel demand. That far exceeds prior hydropower builds in China.

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender aligns with upstream strengths

Baogang United Steel will ship rare earth alloy steels for core structures. The company leads plate supply across northwest China. It targets 2025 output of 15.64mn t of crude steel. It also plans 390,000t of rare earth concentrate and 650,000t of fluorite concentrate. Baogang owns the Bayan Obo rare earth mine in Inner Mongolia. Northern Rare Earth purchases all of Baogang’s concentrate. Baogang holds 37% of NRE, while Baotou Steel is the largest shareholder in both firms.

Pipeline of national projects reinforces demand

Baogang has supplied steel to major national projects in Tibet. These included the Qinghai-Xizang and Lhasa-Nyingchi railways. It also delivered to the Lalo water conservancy hub. Therefore, the new hydropower award should lift sales and earnings. The firm reported Yn15.433bn in first-quarter revenue, down 13% year on year. Net profit fell 29.33% in the same period. However, the tender adds volume visibility as construction ramps.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This award tightens the link between rare earth mining and advanced steel demand. Expect stronger pricing power for alloy plate with rare earth additions as project steel calls peak. Watch Northern Rare Earth flows from Bayan Obo for signals on alloying element availability and costs.

Menar Manganese Alloy Restart Signals Revival of South Africa’s Ferro-Alloy Industry

Menar

Menar plans furnace restart at Metalloys smelter

Menar will restart operations at the Metalloys manganese alloy smelter in South Africa within the next two to three years. The smelter, previously owned by Samancor and idle since 2020, was acquired by Khwelamet in June 2024. Khwelamet is jointly owned by Menar Capital and Ntiso Investment Holdings and expects to process on-site slag for early sales. As a result, the company plans to resume metal output within a year, with full furnace restarts to follow.

Menar selected the site due to its strong infrastructure links, including rail and power access. The smelter is directly connected to ore sources in the Northern Cape via dedicated railway lines.

Manganese market recovery expected to support beneficiation push

Menar believes manganese alloy prices will rebound as steel demand grows, supporting smelter restart economics. Prices dipped in 2023, but the company remains confident that medium-term demand will justify restarting production. “Prices are far from peak levels, but recovery will come with economic growth,” said Menar CEO Vuslat Bayoglu.

South Africa holds the world’s largest chrome and manganese reserves, yet domestic beneficiation remains underdeveloped. High power prices and poor grid reliability continue to pressure the country’s metals industry. For instance, Merafe Resources recently warned it may shut down most of its ferro-chrome capacity due to high costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Menar’s bold move to restart Metalloys could mark a turning point for South Africa’s stagnant ferro-alloys sector. With infrastructure already in place and long-term ore access secured, success will now hinge on electricity stability and pricing reform. As global steel demand returns, this restart could help re-anchor South Africa in the global manganese value chain.

Safran LEAP Engine Deliveries Rise as Aerospace MRO Demand Stays Strong

Safran LEAP Engine

Safran LEAP engine deliveries rose sharply in the first quarter as the French aerospace group benefited from stronger narrowbody engine output and robust aftermarket activity. Safran delivered 520 LEAP engines in January-March, up 63% from 319 units a year earlier.

Safran LEAP engine deliveries are produced through CFM International, the company’s joint venture with GE Aerospace. The first-quarter result keeps CFM on track for its full-year delivery target of about 2,072 engines, based on expected growth of 15% over 2025.

Safran LEAP engine deliveries also show that narrowbody aircraft supply chains are improving, even as airlines and manufacturers remain exposed to engine durability, parts availability and material cost pressures.

The company said the Middle East war has had little to no operational impact so far. However, analysts questioned whether a longer conflict could eventually reduce air traffic, weaken airline finances or delay maintenance spending.

Aftermarket Strength Supports Propulsion Revenue

Safran’s aftermarket performance remained strong in the first quarter. Spare parts revenue rose by 29%, while services revenue increased by 43%.

This growth was driven by maintenance, repair and overhaul demand for both CFM56 and LEAP engines. Airlines continue to operate older fleets while waiting for new aircraft deliveries, supporting demand for engine shop visits, spare parts and repair work.

Safran said it has not seen any reduction in repair scope, shop visits or retirement trends. Chief executive Olivier Andries said the first half of the year should remain largely unaffected by the conflict.

The company maintained its full-year guidance. It expects low to mid-teen revenue growth, around 15% higher LEAP deliveries, mid-teen spare parts revenue growth and about 20% growth in services revenue.

Propulsion revenue reached €4.55bn in the first quarter. Services accounted for 64.5% of propulsion revenue at €2.9bn, while original equipment contributed €1.6bn.

That revenue mix matters for aerospace suppliers. Aftermarket activity provides stronger earnings visibility when new engine production remains constrained by materials, labour and qualified supplier capacity.

Cobalt and Tungsten Costs Highlight Engine Materials Risk

Safran noted significant price increases in raw materials such as cobalt and tungsten. These materials are critical to high-performance aerospace engine components.

Cobalt is used in superalloys that can withstand high temperatures inside jet engines. Tungsten supports hard metals, high-temperature alloys and precision tooling used across aerospace manufacturing.

The price pressure reflects wider supply-chain risk. Cobalt markets have been affected by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export restrictions and quota system. Tungsten prices have also risen because of tight concentrate supply and restricted Chinese exports.

Safran said it is managing the cost increases and has buffers to absorb higher raw material prices. Still, the trend reinforces how engine production depends on stable access to strategic metals.

CFM is also preparing to introduce the upgraded “maverick” high-pressure turbine blade on the LEAP-1B around June-July. The upgraded blade was introduced on the LEAP-1A variant last year after US and EU certification.

Other equipment deliveries were mixed. A320neo nacelle output rose by one-third from a year earlier, while A320 landing gear sets, A330neo nacelles and A350 landing gear sets declined. Boeing 787 landing gear deliveries rose by 38% to 22 units.

The mixed performance shows that aerospace recovery remains uneven. Engine deliveries and aftermarket demand are improving, but nacelles, landing gear and late-stage aircraft systems still face different supply-chain pressures.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s quarter shows that aerospace profitability is increasingly tied to MRO depth and engine materials resilience. LEAP output is recovering, but cobalt, tungsten and high-temperature component supply will remain strategic pressure points as aircraft production ramps.

Port Pirie antimony production marks a new non-China supply route

Nyrstar

Port Pirie antimony production has moved from plan to reality as Nyrstar produced its first antimony metal at a pilot facility in South Australia. The milestone puts a traded, defence-relevant minor metal into a Western processing pipeline. Therefore, Port Pirie antimony production gives buyers a new option as export controls reshape critical mineral trade.

Port Pirie antimony production will now shift toward commercial exports in the first half of next year. Trafigura owns Nyrstar, which positions the project to connect quickly with global offtakers. However, the ramp-up still depends on capital discipline and stable plant performance.

Pilot output targets 2,000 t/y and a 5,000 t/y pathway

Port Pirie antimony production targets 2,000 tonnes per year by the end of next year. Nyrstar also flagged capacity to reach 5,000 tonnes per year by 2028 if it secures additional upgrade investment. As a result, the pilot phase works as both a technical proof and a funding catalyst for scale.

The pilot operation depends on Port Pirie’s 160,000 t/y lead smelter, where antimony arises as a by-product stream. That integration can lower unit costs versus greenfield builds. Meanwhile, Nyrstar is also assessing bismuth and tellurium output, which can add strategic value for electronics and defence supply chains.

Price volatility and government backing shape the economics

Port Pirie antimony production arrives after a sharp price spike driven by shortages and China’s export controls. Prices later fell from record highs, yet they remain far above long-run averages. Therefore, non-China capacity can still clear a high incentive bar, even as the market cools.

Australia’s policy support also matters for timing and bankability. Government assistance supported smelter stability after a price-driven downturn, and Export Finance Australia issued a conditional support letter for the pilot plant tied to a wider US-Australia critical minerals framework. However, the financing remains non-binding and depends on commercial terms and due diligence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Port Pirie antimony production will not end China’s leverage, but it improves redundancy in a tight market. Meanwhile, the by-product model can scale faster than standalone mines and refineries. Therefore, buyers should watch qualification timelines and product specs as exports begin.