Lynas LS Eco Rare Earth Metals Plan Targets Vietnam Magnet Supply Chain

Lynas, Rare Earth Metals

Lynas LS Eco rare earth metals cooperation could create a new non-China processing route for rare earth metals in Vietnam. Australian rare earths producer Lynas Rare Earths is working with South Korea’s LS Eco Energy on potential rare earth metal production at a planned plant in Vietnam.

The preliminary agreement would see Lynas supply rare earth oxides to LS Eco Energy’s upcoming rare earth metal plant for further processing. The initial focus is samarium, following Lynas’ first samarium oxide output at its Malaysian refinery earlier this month.

Lynas LS Eco rare earth metals cooperation matters because rare earth metal production is a key bridge between separated oxides and permanent magnets. Without metallisation capacity, oxide production alone cannot fully support magnet manufacturing for automotive, defense, aerospace, and clean energy applications.

Samarium Gives the Partnership Strategic Magnet Relevance

Samarium is strategically important because it is used in samarium-cobalt magnets. These magnets retain performance under high temperatures and demanding operating conditions, making them valuable for defense, aerospace, automotive, and advanced industrial systems.

Lynas has positioned itself as the only commercial producer of separated samarium, terbium, and dysprosium outside China. That makes its oxide supply especially relevant for customers seeking diversified rare earth supply chains.

If the preliminary agreement becomes definitive, Lynas could also supply metallised neodymium-praseodymium and selected heavy rare earth products, including samarium, dysprosium, and terbium. This would deepen the partnership beyond one material and support a broader magnet materials platform.

Vietnam Plant Could Support LS Eco’s US Magnet Ambition

LS Eco Energy, owned by LS Cable & System, is trying to build a full rare earth permanent magnet value chain. Its plan includes rare earth metal production in Ho Chi Minh City before eventual permanent magnet production in the US.

The company’s board approved a 28.5bn won investment for the Vietnam plant in December 2025. LS Eco Energy is also conducting a feasibility study for a US permanent magnet plant and holding discussions with authorities in Virginia, where the facility could be located.

The Lynas LS Eco rare earth metals agreement also includes a commitment to negotiate definitive deals and cross-subscribe to about A$30mn of convertible instruments each. This structure suggests both companies want a deeper strategic relationship, not only a simple oxide supply contract.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Lynas-LS Eco agreement shows that rare earth competition is moving from oxide separation into metal and magnet manufacturing. Vietnam could become an important intermediate node if Lynas’ non-China oxide supply and LS Eco’s magnet strategy are successfully connected.

LGES–KIM LONG NCM battery MoU signals Vietnam’s EV supply-chain push

KIM LONG

South Korea’s LG Energy Solution and Vietnam’s Kim Long Motor signed the LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU. The LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU covers supply of NCM cylindrical cells for local pack assembly. The LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU positions Hue as a new battery hub.

Kim Long will start its Hue battery complex in early 2026. The initial capacity is 1GWh per year. The company plans staged expansions to meet regional demand.

Vietnam’s policy tailwinds strengthen this pact. The government targets 100% urban buses as electric by 2030. It plans to end fossil-fuel vehicle production and imports by 2040.

Early capacity, regional demand, and bus orders

The Hue project launches with 1GWh annual output. Local pack assembly reduces logistics costs and lead times. It also builds workforce skills and supplier depth.

Downstream demand already forms. Thailand’s Cho Thavee plans to purchase 3,000 buses per year. That pipeline can anchor initial volumes and scale.

NCM cylindrical cells fit fleet needs. They offer energy density for range and duty cycles. They also align with established pack formats and service models.

Policy roadmap and localization advantages

Vietnam’s green transport roadmap sets clear EV milestones. Urban vehicles move to 50% electric by 2030. Urban buses and taxis target 100% by 2030. Localization reduces currency and tariff risks. It encourages vendor clustering in electrodes and foils. It also enables faster homologation for ASEAN fleets.

As a result, Vietnam can expand upstream inputs over time. Anode, cathode, and separator suppliers may co-locate. Recycling capacity can follow to close loops.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The MoU gives Vietnam a credible battery beachhead. Early 1GWh capacity, bus demand, and policy goals align. Watch cell format choices, raw-material sourcing, and recycling plans for margin security.

U.S. Finalizes Massive Solar Tariffs, Reshaping Southeast Asia’s Export Landscape

US solar

Commerce Department sets duties as high as 3,400% on solar products from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia

The U.S. Department of Commerce has concluded a landmark trade investigation by imposing some of the highest anti-dumping and countervailing duties ever recorded on imported solar panels. The decision targets silicon photovoltaic cells and modules from four Southeast Asian nations: Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

These duties follow a year-long investigation into allegations that Chinese solar companies, previously subject to tariffs, shifted operations to Southeast Asia in an attempt to bypass U.S. trade regulations. The move is widely regarded as a turning point for the global solar supply chain, with U.S. officials and industry leaders viewing it as a necessary step to restore fair competition.

According to the final determination, some companies—particularly those that failed to comply with the Commerce Department’s requests—will now face duties exceeding 3,400%, an unprecedented figure. For example, four Cambodian firms, including Jintek and ISC, will be subject to this highest tier. In comparison, these same companies were only facing duties of 68% under the preliminary findings issued in October 2024.

On a broader scale, countrywide anti-dumping rates have also surged. Vietnam faces an average rate of 271%, Thailand 111%, and Cambodia 125%. Malaysia, while receiving the lowest general rate—just under 9%—still saw several of its companies slapped with individual duties over 80%, due to non-cooperation during the investigation.

The Commerce Department also imposed steep countervailing duties, which are used to offset the benefits companies receive from government subsidies. Cambodia again ranked highest, with a countrywide rate near 535%, while Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia saw rates of 125%, 264%, and 32%, respectively. The lowest countervailing duty—under 15%—was assigned to Hanwha Q Cells Malaysian subsidiary.

These tariffs are expected to take effect in June 2025, pending the final approval of the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). In certain cases, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, duties may apply retroactively if the agencies determine that "critical circumstances" exist—such as import surges meant to beat the implementation timeline.

The ruling stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which includes prominent U.S. solar companies like FirstSolar, Mission Solar, and the U.S. arm of Hanwha Q Cells. The coalition argues that Chinese firms exploited a tariff moratorium enacted by President Biden in 2022 to reroute supply chains and avoid penalties, effectively distorting the market.

Tim Brightbill, legal counsel for the petitioner coalition, welcomed the decision. He emphasized that the tariffs represent a major victory for domestic manufacturers and are essential to encouraging long-term investment in the American solar industry. “These duties will go a long way toward protecting U.S. jobs and restoring a level playing field,” Brightbill said.

Industry analysts believe that the tariffs will have a ripple effect on solar deployment in the U.S., at least in the short term. Project developers who rely heavily on low-cost imported modules may face delays or cost increases. However, domestic producers see the ruling as a long overdue reset that prioritizes manufacturing resilience over low-cost imports.

As the global solar sector undergoes this structural shift, all eyes are on how China and Southeast Asian exporters will respond—and how U.S. clean energy goals will adapt to a more protected domestic market.

IEA Membership Expansion Brings India and Brazil Closer to the Center of Global Energy Governance

IEA Membership

IEA membership expansion is entering a new phase with India and Brazil moving toward full membership. Colombia will also upgrade to full membership, while Vietnam will join as an associate member. This shift matters because IEA membership expansion broadens the agency far beyond its traditional western base.

The move reflects a longer strategic effort by the IEA. Fatih Birol said the agency adopted this expansion approach 10 years ago. That effort has steadily increased the organisation’s global reach and relevance. As a result, IEA membership expansion now looks like a structural change in global energy governance.

This matters because the new members bring major energy and resource weight. Brazil and Colombia add crude production and hydropower importance. Colombia also brings significant copper reserves. Therefore, IEA membership expansion connects energy policy more closely with critical minerals and industrial supply chains.

India IEA Membership and Brazil IEA Membership Strengthen the Agency’s Global Reach

India IEA membership is especially important because India is one of the world’s most important energy growth markets. Bringing India into full membership gives the IEA stronger credibility in the global south. It also gives the agency deeper relevance in future demand and transition debates. Consequently, India IEA membership strengthens the organisation’s long-term strategic position.

Brazil IEA membership is equally meaningful for different reasons. Brazil combines major natural resource strength with energy diversity, including hydropower and crude production. That gives the IEA another influential voice from a resource-rich economy with growing geopolitical importance. As a result, Brazil IEA membership adds both energy weight and broader regional influence.

Colombia and Vietnam also matter in this expansion. Colombia’s move to full membership deepens Latin American representation. Vietnam’s associate membership gives the IEA stronger access to one of Asia’s most dynamic industrial economies. Meanwhile, the combined shift makes the organisation more representative of real global energy demand.

Global Energy Governance Is Becoming Less Western and More Strategic

Global energy governance is changing because energy systems are no longer shaped only by a narrow group of advanced economies. The IEA said its members now account for 80pc of global energy usage, up from 38pc in 2015. That is a major shift in institutional reach. Therefore, IEA membership expansion is also a story about relevance and legitimacy.

The broader implication is clear. Energy security, industrial policy, and critical minerals now overlap more than before. An agency that wants to shape those debates needs broader participation from large producers, consumers, and emerging powers. As a result, global energy governance is becoming more strategic and more geographically diverse.

This expansion also matters for industrial supply chains. Countries such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia sit closer to future growth in manufacturing, raw materials, and energy demand. Their stronger presence inside the IEA could influence how the agency addresses transition, affordability, and supply security. Consequently, IEA membership expansion may shape not only energy policy, but also wider industrial strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is more than a membership update. It is a sign that global energy institutions must now reflect a wider set of producers, consumers, and resource holders. If the IEA wants to remain central in energy and critical minerals policy, this broader membership base is not optional. It is necessary.

Southeast Asia Aluminium Premiums Could Decouple From Japan on Chinese Semi Flows

Aluminium

Southeast Asia aluminium premiums could begin to decouple from Japan as Vietnamese buyers increasingly accept Chinese-origin semi-finished products for remelting. The shift suggests regional aluminium pricing may become more dependent on origin acceptance than on traditional Asian premium benchmarks.

Southeast Asia aluminium premiums are still supported for Western-origin and free-trade-agreement cargoes, with some deals above $300/t on a cif Thailand and Vietnam basis. However, cheaper Chinese semi-finished products are creating a parallel supply route.

Southeast Asia aluminium premiums may therefore face a different pricing path from Japan, where origin requirements and customer preferences can be more restrictive. Vietnam’s willingness to buy and remelt Chinese-origin material is changing the regional supply equation.

The key issue is whether low-priced Chinese semi exports remain available. If they do, southeast Asian buyers may have less reason to pay Japan-linked premiums for standard P1020 supply.

Chinese Semi-Finished Products Create a Remelting Alternative

Chinese semi-finished aluminium products are attracting stronger interest from Vietnamese and Korean buyers. Traders pointed to low-priced offers for products such as aluminium wires under HS code 76149000.

Offers for high-purity aluminium stranded wires were reported at between an $80/t discount and a $100/t premium to London Metal Exchange prices. That is below the more typical $50-100/t premium range seen in recent months.

The economics become competitive after remelting. With remelting costs estimated at $150-200/t, buyers can effectively convert wire into P1020-equivalent ingot at a total premium of about $200-300/t.

That is competitive against direct P1020 purchases, especially when standard ingot premiums remain elevated. For price-sensitive buyers, remelting offers a practical way to secure metal units while avoiding higher conventional premiums.

This does not mean all customers will accept the route. Some buyers still require Western-origin or free-trade-agreement cargoes because of compliance, quality, customer specification or trade-policy considerations.

But the presence of a cheaper remelting route can weaken the connection between southeast Asia and Japan premiums. If Vietnam accepts material that Japan will not, the two markets may price differently.

Export Rebates Could Decide Sustainability

China’s 13% export tax rebate for certain aluminium products is central to the pricing gap. Some Chinese suppliers can offer semi-finished products at very low premiums, or even discounts to LME, because the rebate supports export economics.

This creates a policy-driven arbitrage. Instead of exporting primary aluminium directly, suppliers can export semi-finished products that receive more favourable tax treatment.

The sustainability of the trend depends on Beijing’s response. If Chinese authorities decide export volumes are excessive or distortive, they could remove or adjust the rebate.

That would quickly change the economics. Without the rebate, low-priced Chinese semis may become less competitive as a remelting feedstock for southeast Asian buyers.

For now, the trade flow matters because western aluminium supply remains tight and regional premiums are elevated. Buyers are looking for workable alternatives, and Chinese semis provide one.

The broader market implication is clear. Aluminium premiums are becoming more segmented by origin, trade rules and customer acceptance. Regional benchmarks may no longer move together if buyers have different views on acceptable supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The possible split between southeast Asia and Japan premiums shows how trade policy can reshape aluminium pricing as much as physical supply. If Chinese semi exports remain cheap, Vietnam could become a more flexible remelting market while Japan stays tied to stricter origin premiums.

Sinomag Magnet Output Capacity Expands in Vietnam and Thailand

Sinomag

Vietnamese Ferrite Plant Boosts Sinomag’s Global Footprint

Chinese magnet producer Sinomag has increased its magnet output capacity at its Vietnam facility, expanding wet pressure magnetic tile production from 8,000 t/yr to 10,000 t/yr. This move is part of Sinomag’s broader strategy to scale global production outside China. The company targets 50,000 t/yr by year-end and 60,000 t/yr in the next few years, reinforcing its leadership in ferrite magnet manufacturing.

Thai Soft Magnet Facility Set for 2024 Launch

Meanwhile, Sinomag is preparing to launch its Thailand plant for soft magnetic materials by the end of the year. With an initial 8,000 t/yr capacity, this marks China’s first overseas soft magnet production facility. The company aims to grow this to 20,000 t/yr over the coming years. Sinomag’s soft magnets are primarily used in automobiles, household appliances, and new energy vehicles — especially in power modules and EV charging stations.

Strong Demand Meets Global Headwinds

Sinomag magnet output capacity increases come despite a 7.5% drop in first-quarter profits, driven by global photovoltaic slowdowns and stiff market competition. Nevertheless, first-quarter revenues rose 1.2% year-on-year to 256.5mn yuan ($35.49mn). The impact of Trump-era 145% tariffs on Chinese magnet imports remains minimal, as U.S.-bound shipments account for less than 3% of Sinomag’s exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinomag’s capacity expansion reflects a strategic pivot toward international production to mitigate geopolitical risk. Vietnam and Thailand now play key roles in diversifying China's critical materials value chain, particularly in magnets essential to clean tech and automotive sectors.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

Shenghe Resources Reports Increased Rare Earths Output and Sales for First Half of 2024

Rising demand from various sectors drives revenue growth despite net loss

Chinese rare earths producer Shenghe Resources has reported a significant rise in output and sales of rare earth oxides and metals for the first half of 2024. The company achieved a 36% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 5.43 billion yuan ($764.86 million). However, Shenghe posted a net loss of 68.51 million yuan, a sharp contrast to the net profit of 83.97 million yuan recorded in the same period last year. This loss was attributed to declining sales prices and gross profit margins, driven by a steep drop in rare earth and zirconium-titanium product prices and rising costs of raw materials.

Expansion and Investments

Shenghe Resources is actively expanding its global footprint by accelerating overseas resource acquisitions and enhancing its supply chains. In late July, the company announced plans to acquire a 50% additional stake in the Tanzanian rare earth mining company Ngualla Group UK Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Peak Rare Earth. Additionally, Shenghe acquired an 18.2% stake in Vital Metal, an Australian rare earths exploration firm with projects in Canada and Tanzania. Shenghe’s Vietnamese subsidiary, Vietnam Rare Earth, is also partnering with Blackstone Minerals to develop a fully-integrated rare earths value chain in Vietnam.

The company has made substantial investments to secure its resource base and feedstock supply, including a A$43 million investment to acquire Strandline Resources UK from its parent firm. Shenghe also operates several production facilities across China and Vietnam, with ongoing projects such as a 2,000-ton-per-year rare earth metal facility and a 3,300-ton-per-year rare earth oxide project expected to start production in the coming months.

Jindal Stainless Seeks Anti-Dumping Duty to Curb Cheap Imports

Jindal Stainless

Jindal Stainless seeks anti-dumping duty to curb cheap imports and stabilize India’s stainless market. Jindal Stainless seeks anti-dumping duty as US tariffs rise and low-priced inflows grow. Jindal Stainless seeks anti-dumping duty to protect investment and domestic capacity.

Petition targets China and Vietnam as imports surge

Jindal Stainless urged swift DGTR action on anti-dumping duties. The industry petition names China and Vietnam as key sources. As a result, India’s producers face price pressure and margin erosion. The company warned that persistent undercutting threatens capex plans. It argued that protective duties would restore a fair playing field.

US tariffs complicate exports; domestic demand stays firm

US tariffs of 25pc on Indian steel raised uncertainty for exporters. Therefore, Jindal Stainless will lean harder on India’s resilient demand. Sales volumes rose 8.3pc to 626,252t on autos, rail, lifts and appliances. Meanwhile, the export mix held at 9pc as the firm prioritized value-added orders. Management expects DGTR to start the probe within two to three months.

Strong domestic momentum supports near-term utilization rates. However, protectionist measures in the EU and US cloud global sentiment. Jindal Stainless is expanding presence in Japan, the Middle East and South America. The firm said it will keep serving global customers with tailored solutions. It aims to balance exposure while defending share at home.

Policy clarity will shape pricing and coil availability into 2026. If DGTR imposes duties, import arbitrage should narrow. Consequently, domestic mills could lift run-rates and stabilize realizations. Without relief, cheaper stainless could cap local prices and investment. Stakeholders across fabrication and white goods should plan for volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s stainless ecosystem sits at a policy inflection point. Provisional duties would likely firm domestic spreads and spur capex. Watch DGTR timelines, landed cost gaps versus China and Vietnam, and contract resets post-festive season.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

Eurofer Pushes for Anti-Dumping Investigation into Vietnamese and Indian HDG Imports

European steel association

As Europe grapples with a surge in metal imports, the European Steel Association, known as Eurofer, has urged the European Commission to launch an anti-dumping investigation into hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) steel imports from Vietnam and India. The association has not issued a public comment, but industry insiders have been anticipating a formal investigation, particularly regarding Vietnamese imports.

India’s HDG shipments to Europe are already constrained by quotas, with limits set below 55,000 tons for category 4A HDG and under 78,000 tons for 4B. While India’s 4A quota has been quickly exhausted in recent quarters, its 4B quota remains less affected, reflecting varied market demand.

Vietnam’s impact on the EU market is especially pronounced, with monthly HDG shipments averaging over 100,000 tons between January and July—a stark increase from approximately 60,000 tons per month in the previous year. Indian HDG imports similarly increased, averaging close to 70,000 tons per month over the same period, up from around 45,000 tons last year. Other nations, including Taiwan, South Korea, Tunisia, and notably China, continue to ramp up their exports to Europe. China already faces substantial anti-dumping duties, ranging from 17.2% to 27.9%, underscoring Europe’s effort to protect its domestic market from excess supply.

Parallel HRC Investigation Intensifies Safeguard Measures

The HDG situation mirrors the EU's ongoing investigation into hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from several key suppliers. Initiated on August 8, this probe responds to heightened HRC import volumes despite safeguard quotas set at 15% per supplier. Since September 24, the Commission has registered all products imported from countries under anti-dumping or anti-subsidy scrutiny, enabling possible retroactive duties. Provisional measures for HRC imports are anticipated by March 8, signaling further moves to fortify Europe’s metal industry against the impacts of foreign supply surges.

This escalating focus on trade protections reflects Europe’s broader concerns about maintaining competitive balance as global supply chains expand into emerging markets.

Shenghe Resources Acquires Significant Interest in Ngualla Rare Earth Project

Chinese rare earth producer Shenghe Resources is set to acquire an additional 50% interest in the Tanzanian rare earth mining company Ngualla Group UK Limited (NGUK), aiming to further develop the Ngualla project in Tanzania. This acquisition, valued at A$96 million (approximately $63.38 million), will enhance Shenghe's cooperation with Australian mining company Peak Rare Earth (PRE), which currently owns NGUK and holds an 84% stake in the Ngualla project.

This strategic move will significantly increase Shenghe's equity in the Ngualla project, accelerating its development and anticipated start-up. Upon the project's commencement of commercial production, Shenghe will be entitled to 55% of net profits or losses after taxes within the first five years, due to its technical expertise and financial contributions.

Shenghe had previously acquired a 19.9% stake in PRE in early 2022, becoming its largest shareholder. In August 2023, Shenghe and PRE signed a binding offtake agreement, securing Shenghe's access to 100% of the rare earth concentrate or at least 50% of intermediate and final rare earth products from Ngualla.

Construction of the Ngualla project began at the end of May, with completion expected by early 2026. The project is designed to produce 37,200 tons per year of rare earth oxide equivalent from 800,000 tons of processed rare earth ores annually. The Ngualla site boasts rare earth resources of 4.61 million tons of rare earth oxide (REO) and reserves of 887,000 tons of REO, with an average grade of 4.8% and a praseodymium-neodymium oxide content of 21.26%.

Shenghe has been actively expanding its global resource base to enhance its supply chains and profitability. The company recently acquired an 18.2% stake in Australian rare earth exploration firm Vital Metal, which operates the Nechalacho bastnaesite mine in Canada and the Wigu Hill deposit in Tanzania. Additionally, Shenghe's holding company, Vietnam Rare Earth, has reached a preliminary agreement with Australian developer Blackstone Minerals to establish a fully-integrated rare earth value chain in Vietnam.

Shenghe Resources Expands Rare Earth Capacity with Jiahua Acquisitions

Shenghe Resources

Chinese rare earth giant Shenghe Resources has announced its acquisition of significant stakes in rare earth separation plants Jiangyin Jiahua and Zibo Jiahua, aiming to boost its production capacity and strengthen market competitiveness. The move underscores Shenghe's strategic commitment to enhancing its global footprint and securing supply chains amid fluctuating market conditions.

Strategic Acquisitions in Rare Earth Separation

Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ganzhou Chenguang Rare Earth New Materials, Shenghe Resources will acquire an 86% stake in Jiangyin Jiahua for 182.71 million yuan ($25.61 million) and 95% of Zibo Jiahua for 29.38 million yuan from Canadian-based Neo Performance Materials. Shenghe will gain full ownership of Zibo Jiahua by purchasing the remaining 5% stake from Zibo Shijia Industrial and Trading.

• Jiangyin Jiahua, based in Jiangsu, has an annual separation capacity of 3,800 tonnes of high-purity rare earth oxide (REO).
• Zibo Jiahua, located in Shandong, can process 5,500 tonnes per year of bastnaesite rare earth ores.

Zibo Jiahua has also invested 500 million yuan to construct an 8,000 t/yr plant for high-performance rare earth catalytic materials, vital for reducing emissions from internal combustion engines. Upon completion, this facility is expected to dominate 30-35% of the global market for catalytic materials.

A Focus on Global Expansion

Shenghe Resources continues to expand its international presence:

1. Ngualla Project: Shenghe increased its stake in the Tanzanian rare earth mining company Ngualla Group UK Limited, co-owned by Peak Rare Earths (PRR), to develop the Ngualla project.
2. Vital Metals: Shenghe acquired an 18.2% stake in the Australian rare earth exploration firm Vital Metals, which holds assets like the Nechalacho mine in Canada and the Wigu Hill deposit in Tanzania.
3. Vietnam Rare Earth Partnership: Shenghe's subsidiary reached an agreement with Blackstone Minerals to establish a fully-integrated rare earth value chain in Vietnam.

Market Challenges and Financial Outlook

Despite aggressive expansion, Shenghe expects a net loss of 48-72 million yuan for the first half of 2024, citing reduced sales prices and falling gross profit margins. This contrasts sharply with the company’s 83.97 million yuan net profit in the same period last year. The drop is attributed to the slump in rare earth and zirconium-titanium prices and increased raw material costs.

Shenghe remains optimistic, highlighting firm downstream demand and increased output of rare earth oxides, salts, and metals in 2023. These expansions position Shenghe as a key player in securing a resilient and diversified rare earth supply chain.

Asian Aluminium Premiums Stay Subdued as QMJP Offers Test Buyer Resistance

Aluminum

Asian aluminium premiums remained subdued this week as buyers assessed sharply higher quarterly cif main Japan port offers for July-September delivery. Two major producers opened QMJP negotiations at $460/t and $480/t, far above the April-June settlement of $350-353/t.

Asian aluminium premiums are now being pulled in two directions. Western-origin metal has tightened after the Iran war disrupted supply, giving producers a basis for higher offers. However, weak demand and greater availability of alternative units are limiting spot-market momentum.

Asian aluminium premiums also remain below the new QMJP offers. Current spot indications are around $320-380/t, while P1020 fca Korea indications for non-Russian material were heard at $320-350/t.

The gap between producer offers and spot levels suggests buyers may resist paying the full proposed premium. If QMJP settles above $400/t, non-western brands could continue trading below the benchmark.

Western-Origin Tightness Supports Higher Producer Offers

The higher QMJP offers reflect tighter availability of western-origin aluminium in Asia. Supply disruption linked to the Iran war has reduced confidence in some traditional flows, pushing producers to test stronger premium levels.

This is important because QMJP remains a key reference for aluminium trade across Asia. A high settlement can influence physical premiums, contract pricing and buyer behaviour beyond Japan.

However, the market is not uniformly tight. Some Asian smelters have received enquiries and are willing to sell into Europe or offer small volumes in Asia. Others prefer to wait for clearer direction from the QMJP negotiations.

This cautious behaviour shows how benchmark talks can freeze spot activity. Buyers do not want to commit at high levels before the benchmark is settled, while sellers do not want to underprice material if premiums rise.

The immediate market signal is therefore uncertainty, not shortage. Western-origin units command support, but broader aluminium availability remains mixed.

Stranded Wire and Russian Units Cap Spot Upside

Alternative supply is limiting the impact of higher QMJP offers. Stranded wire and Russian-origin aluminium units are weighing on sales of other brands, especially where buyers are more price-sensitive.

China’s exports of aluminium stranded wire rose sharply in April. Shipments under HS code 761490 increased by 166% year on year to 15,567t.

South Korea and Vietnam absorbed much larger volumes. Chinese shipments to South Korea surged to 2,911t, while shipments to Vietnam climbed to 2,288t. Exports to Thailand also rose to 619t.

These flows matter because stranded wire can create substitute supply pressure in regional aluminium markets. When alternative units are available, buyers have less urgency to accept premium increases for standard brands.

Russian-origin aluminium also remains a price-sensitive factor. Some buyers continue to avoid Russian material for policy or corporate reasons, but availability still affects regional market balance and non-western brand pricing.

Demand remains the bigger constraint. Buyers are likely to reduce volumes if both LME prices and QMJP premiums stay high. This limits the ability of producers to convert tight western-origin supply into broad spot-market price gains.

The next quarter may therefore produce a divided market. Western-origin material could secure stronger contract premiums, while non-western and alternative units trade at discounts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Asia’s aluminium market is not rejecting higher premiums; it is questioning which metal deserves them. The real split is between tight western-origin supply and a softer regional market still supported by stranded wire, Russian units and weak demand.

EU May Tighten Steel Safeguard in Response to Global Overcapacity

The European Commission

The European Commission is set to review its existing steel safeguard measures, possibly tightening them significantly due to persistent weak market conditions. This action comes as part of the Commission's annual review, which could be expedited in light of mounting global overcapacity. Sources suggest that the Commission may announce its decision as early as next week.

The current global overcapacity in steel production is placing additional strain on the European market, where demand for steel remains weak. As a result, industry insiders are urging the Commission to reconsider the planned 1% liberalization of the steel import quota. This adjustment would allow importers to secure a greater share of the European market, which is shrinking due to both supply overabundance and lackluster domestic demand.

The Commission is also expected to further tighten import volumes beyond the existing 15% cap on the "other countries" quota. Industry experts anticipate additional investigations into alleged dumping practices from countries such as Egypt, Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Indonesia. These investigations could potentially lead to higher tariffs or other protective measures for European steel producers.

Specifically, there are discussions regarding the inclusion of hot-rolled coil (HRC) from several countries, including Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam. Furthermore, the European Union could extend its scrutiny to Vietnamese hot-dip galvanized steel, South Korean and Indonesian plate steel, and cold-rolled coil from Taiwan. Additional investigations could also target other Asian countries selling HRC and downstream products.

European steel mills have long been advocating for stricter measures, claiming that the current safeguards are insufficient to protect the industry from the flood of cheaper imports. The impending review by the European Commission may result in a significant shift in the European Union's trade strategy for steel, with potential long-term effects on both domestic producers and foreign exporters.

First Solar Secures US TOPCon Patent

US-based solar module manufacturer First Solar has successfully obtained a US patent for its solar cell production technology, paving the way for an investigation into potential patent infringements.

The company announced today that it has acquired patents for the Tunner Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cells, which utilize crystalline-silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) technology, following its acquisition of TetraSun in 2013.

With this patent acquisition, First Solar has launched an investigation into c-Si solar manufacturers to identify any possible infringement of its patents, which are issued in the US, Mexico, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan, and Australia. The probe also covers pending patent applications in the EU and Japan.

First Solar is known for producing thin-film cadmium-telluride (CdTe)-based photovoltaic modules, a crucial element in advancing solar energy technology and the broader energy transition.

First Solar Tariff Revisions Lift 2025 Sales Guidance and Shift Module Mix

First Solar

First Solar tariff revisions are reshaping 2025 sales plans and regional mix. The company raised guidance after negotiated duties on Asian imports. First Solar tariff revisions also sharpen cost risks and near-term pricing dynamics.

Guidance rises as duties reshape import economics

First Solar tariff revisions include 25pc on Malaysia and 20pc on Vietnam. As a result, management lifted 2025 module sales to 16.7–19.3GW. International sales now target 7.2–9.5GW, up from 6–9.5GW. US-made volumes remain 9.5–9.8GW for 2025. The firm still warns of Section 232 uncertainty on polysilicon. It also monitors a possible 25pc levy on India.

Costs, capacity ramp, and backlog support the outlook

Tariffs could cost $70mn/yr on production and $80–130mn on imports. If customers resist price pass-throughs, First Solar could idle lines. However, capacity ramps in Alabama continue, with Louisiana qualification expected in October. Second-quarter output reached 4.2GW, including 2.4GW in the US. International plants produced 1.8GW in the quarter.

Commercial traction remains solid with a 64GW bookings backlog through 2030. Meanwhile, revenue guidance increased to $4.9–5.7bn for 2025. Second-quarter revenue rose 9pc year on year to $1.1bn. Quarterly profit slipped 2pc to $342mn amid tariff and mix effects.

Policy remains the key swing factor for pricing and margins. US baseline import tariffs sit at 10pc since 5 April. First Solar tariff revisions interact with that floor to influence landed costs. Therefore, international units could flex lower if pass-throughs stall.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff-driven repricing favors domestic thin-film supply in the near term. Yet margin outcomes hinge on pass-through discipline and buyer mix. Watch the India tariff risk and Section 232 actions; either could tighten module spreads again.

Domestic Imports of Noble Alloys Fell in 2Q

Shipments of noble alloys to the United States declined in the second quarter, reflecting weaker demand from domestic steel producers and a narrower U.S. premium compared to the previous year.

- According to U.S. Commerce Department data released this week, total imports of noble alloys, including ferro-molybdenum, ferro-niobium, ferro-titanium, ferro-vanadium, and ferro-tungsten, fell by 14% to 6,352 metric tons.

- Shipments of ferro-molybdenum from Chile, the primary global supplier, dropped by 19% to 1,887 tons, while imports of South Korea-sourced alloys plunged by 34% to 683 tons.

- Ferro-niobium imports from Canada decreased by 11% to 1,009 tons but were largely offset by a 13% increase in shipments from Brazil, totaling 1,194 tons.

- Consolidated ferro-titanium imports from Eastern Europe—comprising Estonia, Latvia, and Ukraine—plummeted by 71% to 123 tons, while U.K. shipments fell by 36% to 267 tons.

- U.S. imports of ferro-vanadium from Austria sank by 61% to 133 tons, though Canadian imports rose by 40% to 402 tons.

- South Korea shipped only 1 ton of ferro-tungsten to the U.S. from April to June, with no imports from regular suppliers Vietnam and Mexico.

China’s Steel Market Faces Persistent Challenges Despite Stimulus Measures

China’s Steel

Chinese steel prices experienced a modest rebound from multi-year lows in late September, spurred by a series of government stimulus policies. However, the steel market's long-term outlook remains uncertain due to sluggish domestic demand, weakening real estate investments, and global trade barriers.

Steel Prices Rebound, but Demand Stays Weak

Steel prices in China bottomed out in late September, with the People’s Bank of China reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% and lowering mortgage rates. Despite these measures, real estate investments for January-September declined by 10.1% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The area of new construction projects dropped by 22.2% over the same period, underscoring a lack of recovery in demand.

Domestic steel demand remains heavily tied to new construction and infrastructure projects. However, China’s shift in focus toward existing housing rather than new builds has limited the effectiveness of stimulus policies.

Steel Production Increases Amidst Price Rebound

Chinese steel mills responded to the price recovery by ramping up production. Profits rebounded from losses of Yn150-200 per ton in early September to Yn200-250 per ton by early October. Weekly rebar output reached 2.4 million tons in mid-October, the highest since late June. Blast furnace and electric arc furnace operation rates also hit two-month highs during this period.

Despite increased production, market participants anticipate a dip in construction steel demand from mid-November as northern cities enter the winter heating season.

Steel Exports: A Mixed Bag

Chinese steel exports surged by 21.2% year-on-year in January-September, totaling 80.71 million tons. However, this growth is under threat from rising anti-dumping measures in countries such as Turkey, India, Vietnam, and South Korea. With major overseas markets slowing operations during the Christmas season, export bookings are expected to taper off in December.

Stimulus Measures: Limited Impact on Real Estate

China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced significant fiscal measures, including a Yn1 trillion issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and an increased financial expenditure of Yn180 billion for 2024. Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) plans to rebuild 1 million apartments in shanty towns and dilapidated areas. However, these measures are relatively mild compared to the peak of 6 million units rebuilt annually from 2016 to 2018.

To further stimulate the housing market, most cities, except Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have lifted purchase restrictions. Despite these efforts, the market remains constrained by long-term structural issues.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Shanghai hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined by Yn230 per ton (6.3%) from 7 October to Yn3,420 per ton as of yesterday. Market analysts suggest that while steel prices may not return to their September lows, downward pressure is likely in November and December.

As China continues to navigate economic headwinds, the steel sector’s recovery appears contingent on significant new investments and sustained domestic demand growth. The global context of anti-dumping measures and trade barriers adds another layer of complexity, potentially capping export growth prospects in the near term.

China Heavy Rare Earth Exports Stall as Curbs Hit Japan and US

Ru

China heavy rare earth exports stalled in May as export restrictions continued to disrupt shipments of terbium, dysprosium and lutetium products to key buyers. The data show how Beijing’s licensing controls are reshaping trade flows for materials used in magnets, defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

China heavy rare earth exports were especially weak for products exposed to US and Japanese demand. China recorded no May exports of terbium oxide, dysprosium metal and several other key heavy rare earth products, while yttrium oxide shipments fell sharply from April.

China heavy rare earth exports are now being driven less by normal spot demand and more by policy clearance, end-use approval and bilateral tensions. This makes supply planning increasingly difficult for downstream users that need small but critical volumes.

Light rare earth exports moved in the opposite direction. Shipments of cerium oxide, lanthanum carbonate and neodymium metal increased in May as stronger downstream demand and firmer export prices encouraged buyers to purchase more material.

Heavy Rare Earth Controls Tighten Supply to Japan

Japan has been the clearest casualty of China’s heavy rare earth restrictions. It was previously a major consumer of Chinese yttrium oxide, accounting for 57-60% of total shipments.

That flow has changed sharply since January, when Beijing banned exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use or any end-use that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The measure followed deteriorating relations after comments on Taiwan by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi.

China exported only 7t of yttrium oxide to Japan in May, while total May yttrium oxide exports fell to 90t from 161t in April. Germany received 55t, France 14t, Russia 6.9t and South Korea 6.2t.

For January-May, China exported 454t of yttrium oxide. South Korea received 111t, Austria 100t, the US 80t, Germany 69t, Vietnam 40t, Russia 20t and Japan only 14t.

Dysprosium flows were also tightly controlled. China exported 8.4t of dysprosium oxide in May, up slightly from April and March, but all shipments in April-May went to South Korea.

Dysprosium metal exports stopped in May after 3t moved to South Korea in April. Exports to Japan have been suspended since January, after 2t was shipped in December 2025.

Terbium exports were even more constrained. China exported no terbium oxide in May after shipping only 0.2t in April. Total January-May exports reached 5.7t, mostly to South Korea.

Terbium metal exports were almost absent in May, while shipments to Japan have been suspended since January. Lutetium oxide exports were also almost absent after 5t moved to the US in April.

Magnet and Aerospace Users Face Licensing Risk

The latest export pattern matters because heavy rare earths are small-volume materials with large strategic importance. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve high-temperature performance in rare earth permanent magnets.

Those magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defence equipment and high-performance industrial motors. Yttrium is also important for ceramics, phosphors, alloys, coatings and aerospace-related applications.

Lutetium is a smaller market, but its supply risk is strategically relevant because many specialty rare earths have few alternative sources. Even small interruptions can affect qualified users because substitution is difficult.

The May data show that South Korea has remained a permitted destination for some heavy rare earth products, especially dysprosium oxide. This could reflect licensing approvals for civilian or qualified end uses.

But the broader message is that buyers cannot rely only on market availability. They must also track export licences, end-user reviews and political relations with Beijing.

The divergence between light and heavy rare earth exports is also important. Light rare earth demand can still rise when prices and downstream consumption support trade, while heavy rare earth flows remain vulnerable to strategic controls.

For non-China supply chains, this reinforces the need for separation, metallization, magnet recycling and heavy rare earth sourcing outside China. However, building that capacity will take time, capital and customer qualification.

Japan’s exposure is especially important because the country has deep magnet, electronics, automotive and precision manufacturing industries. Reduced access to yttrium, dysprosium, terbium and lutetium could force buyers to accelerate inventory strategies and non-China sourcing.

The market should therefore treat May’s export data as more than a trade statistic. It is another signal that heavy rare earth supply is becoming a managed geopolitical channel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s May export data show that rare earth risk is now concentrated in licensing, not only price. For Japan, the US and other advanced manufacturing economies, heavy rare earth security will depend on building supply routes that can survive political friction.