European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

Greenland Molybdenum Supply Deal with Cogne Targets European Steel Markets

Greenland

Greenland molybdenum supply deal negotiations advanced as Greenland Resources signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali. The potential Greenland molybdenum supply agreement covers ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide sourced from the company's $820 million Malmbjerg project, positioning Greenland Resources to address European Union molybdenum supply security while building strategic partnerships across specialty steel manufacturing.

Malmbjerg Project Resources Support Long-Term Supply Commitments

Greenland molybdenum supply capabilities stem from substantial mineral reserves at the Malmbjerg project containing 245 million metric tonnes of molybdenum disulphide. The reserves maintain an average grade of 0.176% and are expected to yield 571 million pounds (259,000 tonnes) of contained molybdenum metal. These resource volumes position Malmbjerg to supply approximately 25% of European Union molybdenum demand.

Meanwhile, the project's strategic importance reflects the EU's position as the world's second-largest molybdenum consumer without domestic mining operations. This supply gap creates significant opportunities for Greenland Resources to establish long-term customer relationships with European manufacturers. The company also plans to market magnesium as a by-product, diversifying revenue streams while maximizing resource utilization efficiency.

Strategic Processing Partnership Enables Market Entry

However, the molybdenum supply chain requires sophisticated processing capabilities through Greenland Resources' tolling agreement with Molymet Belgium. The Belgian molybdenum converter will process concentrates from Malmbjerg into ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide products suitable for specialty steel applications. This partnership arrangement provides access to established European processing infrastructure without requiring substantial capital investments.

Therefore, the Cogne agreement follows Greenland Resources' successful long-term contract with stainless steel producer Outokumpu for 8 million pounds annually of molybdenum oxide. The Outokumpu deal represents half of that company's annual molybdenum requirements, demonstrating market validation for Malmbjerg's production capacity. Multiple customer agreements reduce concentration risk while establishing predictable revenue foundations.

Government Approval Remains Critical for Project Development

Furthermore, Greenland Resources continues pursuing final exploitation license approval from the Greenland government following receipt of draft license revisions in April. Government approval represents the final regulatory hurdle before commencing mining activities at Malmbjerg. The licensing process reflects Greenland's careful approach to balancing resource development with environmental protection and community interests.

As a result, successful government approval would unlock substantial European molybdenum supply chain benefits while establishing Greenland as a strategic critical minerals producer. The project's scale and customer commitments demonstrate commercial viability that supports both Greenlandic economic development and European industrial supply security. Strategic partnerships with established processors and customers create integrated value chains from mining through end-use applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Greenland Resources' molybdenum supply agreements exemplify how emerging mining jurisdictions can address critical European industrial supply gaps through strategic partnerships and processing arrangements. The Malmbjerg project's potential to supply 25% of EU molybdenum demand represents a significant geopolitical shift toward Arctic resource development, particularly important as European manufacturers seek supply chain diversification away from traditional sources amid increasing trade tensions.

Indian Ferro-Alloy Industry Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Global Uncertainty

Indian Ferro Alloy

The Indian ferro-alloy industry confronts severe headwinds as global tensions, escalating production costs, and declining export demand create a perfect storm of challenges. Despite chrome and manganese alloys from India remaining exempt from tariffs in most international markets, producers struggle with deteriorating market conditions and regulatory pressures that threaten operational viability.

Production Costs and Regulatory Burdens Squeeze Margins

Rising production costs severely impact Indian ferro-alloy manufacturers, particularly due to higher power tariffs in key regions like West Bengal. Consequently, producers must manage operational expenses with unprecedented precision to maintain profitability. Meanwhile, some alloy producers have strategically shifted capacity from ferro-chrome to manganese alloys, seeking higher margins amid challenging market conditions.

The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) quality order requirements add another layer of complexity for Indian ferro-alloy producers. Administrative costs have surged following the inclusion of ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese, and silicon-manganese in the BIS quality order list. Therefore, producers face mounting pressure to complete registration before the November deadline, as manufacturing and distribution without proper certification will be prohibited from November 8th.

Export Markets Deteriorate as Global Demand Weakens

Export prospects for Indian ferro-alloy products have deteriorated significantly across key international markets. Demand for Indian ferro-chrome under long-term contracts has plummeted by an estimated 60-70% compared to last year, forcing many exporters to rely entirely on volatile spot demand. However, this shift exposes producers to greater market uncertainty and price volatility.

European markets present particularly acute challenges for Indian ferro-alloy exporters. The EU's pending safeguard investigation into manganese and silicon-based alloys, launched in December, creates substantial uncertainty for market participants. As a result, European appetite for Indian manganese alloys collapsed to just 2-3 containers in April, compared to India's 300,000 tonnes of manganese alloy exports to Europe in 2024.

Additionally, mounting container freight costs of $50-55 per tonne from India to Europe further constrain exporters' competitiveness. Expectations suggest freight rates will increase further in late May, compounding the challenges facing Indian ferro-alloy suppliers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Indian ferro-alloy industry's current struggles reflect broader global supply chain disruptions and trade policy uncertainties affecting critical mineral markets. The combination of regulatory compliance costs, weakening export demand, and rising logistics expenses suggests a prolonged adjustment period ahead for Indian producers seeking to maintain their competitive position in international markets.

LB Titanium Dioxide Plant Acquisition Revives UK TiO2 Pigment Capacity

LB TiO2

LB titanium dioxide plant ownership has expanded into the UK after China’s largest TiO2 producer acquired the Greatham pigment manufacturing site from Venator Materials UK. The acquisition gives LB Group a European production base for titanium dioxide pigments used in coatings and plastics.

LB titanium dioxide plant operations at Greatham are expected to restart this year through Tioxide, a new wholly owned subsidiary. The move gives LB direct manufacturing capacity in the UK at a time when European buyers are reassessing supply security, trade exposure and regional pigment availability.

LB titanium dioxide plant expansion also strengthens the company’s global position. LB Group already has combined TiO2 capacity of 1.51mn t/yr, making it the world’s largest titanium dioxide producer.

The transaction follows a $69.9mn purchase agreement signed with Venator in October 2025. The UK Competition and Markets Authority cleared the acquisition on 23 April.

Greatham Restart Adds Regional Pigment Supply

The Greatham site will manufacture TiO2 pigments for coatings and plastics. These are core industrial markets where titanium dioxide provides whiteness, opacity, brightness and durability.

Restarting the facility could improve regional availability for European and UK customers. It also allows LB to serve some customers from within the market rather than relying only on exports from China.

This matters because TiO2 is widely used in construction coatings, packaging, automotive coatings, plastics, inks and consumer goods. Supply disruptions or trade restrictions can quickly affect downstream manufacturers.

The acquisition also gives LB a strategic foothold in a mature industrial market. Owning European production assets can help the company manage customer relationships, regulatory requirements and product qualification more directly.

For the UK, the deal could preserve TiO2 pigment manufacturing capacity at a site previously owned by Venator. The key question will be how quickly LB can restart operations and secure stable feedstock, labour and customer demand.

Trade Remedies Add Strategic Complexity

The acquisition comes as the UK Trade Remedies Authority investigates imports of rutile titanium dioxide from China. That investigation adds a trade-policy dimension to LB’s European expansion.

Billions Europe, an LB subsidiary, has requested that ink-grade TiO2 be excluded from the case. The request shows how product-specific distinctions can become important in anti-dumping proceedings.

For LB, owning a UK production site may help reduce exposure to import-related trade measures. Local production can also support customers that prefer regional supply or need more predictable delivery.

However, the broader TiO2 market remains highly competitive. Producers face pressure from energy costs, raw material availability, environmental rules, demand cycles and trade remedies.

The Greatham restart will therefore test more than acquisition execution. It will test whether a Chinese producer can use a UK manufacturing asset to strengthen its position in European pigment markets while navigating trade scrutiny.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LB’s Greatham acquisition shows that Chinese materials producers are not only exporting more; they are buying production footprints inside target markets. For TiO2 buyers, the deal could improve local availability, but trade policy will remain a major factor shaping supply routes.

European Aluminum CBAM Flaws Warning Highlights Competitiveness Risks

European Aluminum CBAM

European Aluminum CBAM flaws emerged as critical concerns as the industry association warned that the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism threatens bloc competitiveness ahead of tomorrow's European Parliament vote. The European Aluminum CBAM flaws assessment, conducted by Ramboll Management Consulting, identifies three fundamental design issues that could actively harm Europe's aluminum industry while providing unfair advantages to importers who avoid carbon costs across their full value chains.

Scrap Content Verification Creates Competitive Disadvantages

European Aluminum CBAM flaws include significant challenges in accurately verifying scrap content within aluminum products imported into the EU. The difficulty in verification enables importers to over-declare scrap content, avoiding carbon costs while redirecting higher scrap content products toward EU markets for financial incentives. This manipulation provides importers substantial advantages over EU producers who face carbon costs across their complete value chain operations.

Meanwhile, Ramboll recommends assigning default values to all imported primary and secondary metal to eliminate domestic disadvantages. This approach would prevent gaming of scrap content declarations while ensuring competitive parity between domestic and imported aluminum products. The current verification system's inadequacy undermines CBAM's intended purpose of leveling competitive playing fields.

Aluminum scrap

Alumina Inclusion Could Drastically Increase EU Costs

However, the study argues that adding aluminum feedstock alumina to CBAM parameters could raise EU alumina costs by 12-16% by 2030, escalating to 24% by 2034. These cost increases would severely impact European aluminum smelter competitiveness while potentially driving production offshore. Ramboll recommends excluding alumina from CBAM until comprehensive downstream sector coverage ensures balanced implementation.

Therefore, the report suggests creating dedicated emissions trading scheme benchmarks for alumina rather than incorporating it directly into CBAM mechanisms. This alternative approach would address carbon leakage concerns without imposing excessive cost burdens on European aluminum producers. The timing of alumina inclusion requires careful coordination with broader CBAM implementation phases.

Indirect Emissions Scope Expansion Presents Implementation Challenges

Furthermore, expanding CBAM beyond direct scope 1 emissions to include indirect scope 2 and 3 emissions would significantly increase CBAM fees and European aluminum costs. European producers face indirect carbon costs through electricity pricing that don't correlate with their actual emissions profiles. Third-country producers avoid equivalent carbon costs while CBAM lacks verification mechanisms for electricity-related emissions.

As a result, European Aluminum director general Paul Voss urged immediate CBAM implementation pause for aluminum until design flaws receive correction and competitiveness impacts undergo proper assessment. The association demands potential aluminum removal from CBAM scope if ongoing reviews demonstrate continued harm rather than protection. Alternative carbon leakage protection measures may require extension beyond 2030 if CBAM proves ineffective.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Aluminum association's CBAM critique highlights fundamental tensions between climate policy objectives and industrial competitiveness, demonstrating how well-intentioned carbon border mechanisms can inadvertently disadvantage domestic producers they aim to protect. The complexity of aluminum value chains, from alumina feedstock through scrap recycling, creates verification challenges that sophisticated importers can exploit, undermining CBAM's core premise of ensuring fair competition while driving global decarbonization.

Nippon Kosice Mill Move Builds Direct European Steel Hub

U.S Steel, Kosice Mill

Nippon Kosice mill ownership is moving into a new phase as Nippon Steel begins the transition to take direct control of US Steel’s Slovakia-based Kosice operation. The move positions the plant as a key European operating hub inside Nippon’s global steel network.

Nippon Kosice mill control matters because the facility is one of Central Europe’s major integrated steel assets. It has crude steel capacity of 4.5mn t/yr and produced 3.2mn t in the 2025 fiscal year.

Nippon Kosice mill operations include three blast furnaces and downstream lines for hot rolling, cold rolling, annealing, tinplate, galvanizing and non-oriented electrical steel. That product range gives the site relevance across automotive, electrical, energy, packaging and construction supply chains.

The mill has been wholly owned by US Steel since 2000. US Steel became a subsidiary of Nippon in 2025, and the latest move will put Nippon in direct control of Kosice’s operations.

Direct Control Strengthens Technology, Sales and Procurement

Nippon’s direct ownership strategy is aimed at improving Kosice’s competitiveness through closer coordination on technology, sales and procurement. This is more than a corporate restructuring.

Integrated steel mills increasingly need stronger technical support to serve higher-grade markets. Customers in automotive, electrical equipment, construction and energy are demanding better surface quality, tighter tolerances, stronger coating performance and more advanced steel grades.

Kosice already has a broad industrial customer base across Europe. Direct integration with Nippon could help the mill improve product development and align more closely with global customers that require high-value steel.

Procurement is also important. European steelmakers face pressure from raw material costs, energy prices, carbon rules and import competition. A stronger link to Nippon’s global network could improve sourcing discipline and operating efficiency.

The plant’s non-oriented electrical steel capability is especially strategic. NOES is used in electric motors, generators and other equipment tied to electrification. As electric vehicles, industrial motors and grid equipment expand, electrical steel quality becomes increasingly important.

Tinplate and galvanizing lines also give Kosice exposure to packaging, automotive and construction demand. These downstream assets allow the mill to capture more value than a basic slab or hot-rolled coil producer.

Central and Eastern Europe Offer High-Grade Steel Growth

Nippon expects steel demand in Central and Eastern Europe to keep growing. That regional view is central to the Kosice strategy.

Manufacturing relocation into the region could support demand for higher-grade steel. Automotive suppliers, electrical equipment producers, energy companies and construction manufacturers all need reliable local steel supply.

Kosice is well placed geographically to serve those markets. Slovakia sits near important automotive and industrial clusters, giving the mill a logistics advantage for regional customers.

The move also gives Nippon a stronger European production base at a time when the steel industry is becoming more regional. Customers increasingly value supply security, shorter delivery routes and stable technical support.

For European steel supply chains, direct Nippon control could bring more disciplined investment and product strategy. The challenge will be upgrading competitiveness while managing Europe’s high energy costs and decarbonisation pressure.

Nippon’s high-value manufacturing technology could help Kosice move further into specialised grades. That would be important if regional demand shifts from commodity steel toward automotive sheet, electrical steel, coated products and precision cold-rolled materials.

The broader industrial meaning is clear. Nippon is not treating Kosice as a passive inherited asset from US Steel. It is positioning the mill as a strategic European platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nippon’s Kosice move shows that global steelmakers are concentrating control around regional hubs with high-grade potential. The key test will be whether Nippon can turn Kosice from a legacy integrated mill into a more competitive supplier for Europe’s automotive, electrical and energy transition markets.

New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

Outokumpu Stainless Steel Deliveries Rise as EU CBAM Supports Local Demand

Outokumpu

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries rose sharply from the previous quarter after the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism began applying to imports at the start of the year. The Finnish stainless steel producer shipped 465,000t in January-March, up 27% from the previous quarter.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries were still down 1% from a year earlier, showing that the recovery remains uneven. But the quarterly increase suggests CBAM is starting to shift some demand toward local European production.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries are expected to rise by up to 10% in the second quarter. The company is benefiting from European buyers reassessing imports as carbon-related costs begin to affect non-EU supply.

The result highlights the industrial importance of scrap-based stainless steel production. CBAM could improve the competitiveness of lower-carbon European producers if importers face higher carbon costs.

CBAM Gives European Stainless Producers a Demand Tailwind

CBAM imposes a carbon levy on imports from outside the EU. This changes the cost comparison between imported stainless steel and local European material.

For Outokumpu, the mechanism supports demand for European scrap-based stainless production. Scrap-based production generally carries a lower carbon footprint than more emissions-intensive routes.

European stainless shipments reached 324,000t in the first quarter, up 2% from a year earlier. This suggests regional demand held up better than some other markets.

Shipments to the Americas fell by 5% to 148,000t. However, the Americas business still delivered much stronger earnings because of higher average selling prices.

The commercial message is clear. Volume growth is beginning to appear in Europe, but pricing power remains stronger in the Americas.

Ferro-Chrome Volumes Rise but European Margins Weaken

Outokumpu’s ferro-chrome shipments rose by 15.8% year on year to 110,000t. Strong demand in Europe and the US supported the increase.

Ferro-chrome remains essential for stainless steel production because chromium provides corrosion resistance. Higher ferro-chrome shipments therefore show stronger activity across stainless and alloy supply chains.

Group adjusted Ebitda rose by 33% on the year to €65mn. The improvement was driven mainly by the Americas business, where Ebitda climbed to €52mn from €11mn.

But the earnings mix was uneven. Ferro-chrome Ebitda fell by nearly 30% to €30mn, while the European stainless segment posted negative Ebitda of €13mn, down from positive €5mn a year earlier.

Outokumpu attributed weaker European profitability to lower average selling prices and lower fixed-cost absorption. This shows that CBAM may support volumes before it fully restores margins.

The first-quarter result therefore sends a mixed signal. European demand is improving, but pricing and cost absorption still need to recover for the regional stainless business to regain strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s quarter shows that CBAM is beginning to change stainless steel trade behaviour. But the policy’s real test is whether it can improve European producer margins, not only redirect demand toward local supply.

 

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

Ferroglobe Silicon Shipments Fall as European Plants Face Import Pressure

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon shipments fell in the first quarter after the company suspended production across its European silicon metal plants in October. The decline shows how weak demand and low-priced imports are reshaping Europe’s silicon metal market.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments dropped by 15.9% year on year to 30,533t in January-March. The company later restarted one of two furnaces at its Anglefort plant in France to maintain an EU operating presence.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments remain under pressure because European production costs are still struggling to compete against lower-cost third-country imports. The company warned that the current market structure is no longer viable during a prolonged period of depressed demand.

The issue is strategically important because silicon metal supports aluminium alloys, silicones, solar materials, semiconductors and industrial chemicals. If European smelting capacity continues to close, the region’s downstream industries will become more dependent on imported feedstock.

European Silicon Metal Faces Low-Cost Import Pressure

Ferroglobe said the European silicon metal market remains under pressure from China and Angola. Angola has emerged as a faster-growing supplier into the EU, increasing its market share during the first two months of 2026.

Angola supplied 993t of silicon metal to the EU in February, up by around two-thirds from a year earlier. Its EU market share more than doubled to 3.3% in January-February from 1.5% a year earlier.

This matters because even modest import share gains can influence pricing when demand is weak. European producers with higher energy and operating costs have limited room to absorb lower selling prices.

Ferroglobe has called for the EU to introduce anti-dumping duties on certain third-country suppliers selling at low prices into the bloc. The company made the request after the European Commission excluded silicon metal from last year’s safeguard investigation.

The policy question is now becoming more urgent. Europe wants strategic materials security, but it also needs trade tools that keep domestic production viable when imports undercut regional cost structures.

Without stronger protection or demand recovery, European silicon metal output could remain constrained. That would weaken the region’s ability to support aluminium, chemicals, solar and advanced manufacturing supply chains from local feedstock.

Ferro-Alloy Sales Offset Silicon Weakness

Ferroglobe’s broader first-quarter performance was supported by stronger silicon-based and manganese-based alloy shipments. This helped offset weaker silicon metal volumes.

Shipments of silicon-based alloys rose by 41.6% year on year to 60,674t. The increase was driven by stronger US demand for ferro-silicon.

However, average selling prices for silicon-based alloys fell by 4.9% to $2,016/t. Competitive conditions in the US and South Africa limited pricing power despite stronger volumes.

Manganese-based alloy sales also improved sharply. Shipments rose by 27.5% to 85,743t, supported by recently implemented safeguard measures.

The average selling price for manganese-based alloys increased by 12.8% to $1,250/t because of higher European prices. This shows how trade measures can directly support pricing when regional supply protection is in place.

Ferroglobe’s total sales rose by 13.2% year on year to $347.7mn. The increase came from higher silicon-based and manganese-based alloy volumes, along with stronger manganese alloy pricing.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 112.5% to $3.3mn. The improvement was meaningful, but margins remain thin for a company operating in volatile alloy and silicon markets.

The company is also considering reopening operations in Venezuela. Those assets are close to the US market and could benefit from low-cost energy, raw materials and favourable logistics.

That strategy reflects the changing economics of ferro-alloy and silicon production. Energy cost, trade access, import protection and proximity to customers are becoming more important than legacy European capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s results show that Europe’s silicon metal problem is not only weak demand; it is structural cost exposure against lower-priced imports. If the EU wants domestic critical industrial material capacity, silicon metal may need the same policy seriousness now being applied to batteries, magnets and semiconductors.

Hydro European Extrusion Plant Closures Signal Deeper Pressure in Aluminium Demand

Hydro

Hydro European extrusion plant closures are expanding as the Norwegian aluminium producer adds the Luce plant in France to its restructuring plan. The move brings the number of European extrusion plants targeted for closure in 2026 to six, reflecting continued weakness in regional aluminium demand.

Hydro previously announced plans to close extrusion plants in Cheltenham and Bedwas in the UK, Ludenscheid in Germany, Feltre in Italy, and Drunen in the Netherlands. The two UK closures have been confirmed and are scheduled for the second quarter.

Hydro European extrusion plant closures show that aluminium processors are still adapting to weak construction, automotive, and industrial demand across Europe. The company also closed its Birtley extrusion plant in the UK in May, underlining the scale of its capacity adjustment.

European Aluminium Extrusion Market Remains Under Pressure

The European aluminium extrusion market continues to face difficult operating conditions. Weak demand, high costs, and margin pressure are forcing producers to reassess plant networks and remove capacity from less competitive sites.

Hydro said the European market remains challenging and that further action is needed. The planned Luce closure fits into a broader effort to align capacity with demand while maintaining service levels in key markets such as France.

If all planned closures are completed, Hydro will retain 27 extrusion plants and five recycling facilities in its European extrusion business. This suggests the company is not exiting Europe, but reshaping its footprint around fewer, more competitive assets.

Luce Closure Adds Cost but Supports Long-Term Restructuring

Hydro estimates total restructuring costs related to the Luce closure at Nkr260mn, or about $27.2mn. Around Nkr5mn will affect the company’s adjusted earnings in the first quarter.

The near-term cost is part of a wider restructuring logic. Aluminium extrusion producers need scale, utilization, efficient logistics, and competitive energy and labour cost structures to protect margins in a weak market.

Hydro European extrusion plant closures also highlight a broader issue for Europe’s downstream aluminium sector. Demand recovery remains uncertain, while producers must continue investing in recycling, low-carbon aluminium, and higher-value applications to remain competitive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hydro’s restructuring shows that Europe’s aluminium challenge is moving downstream, not staying limited to smelting. The winners will be producers that can combine leaner capacity, recycling integration, and higher-value customer segments before demand fully recovers.

China’s policies are reshaping the global tungsten market

International Tungsten Industry Association

China’s tightening controls are fundamentally reshaping the global tungsten market and forcing buyers to rethink supply strategies. The global tungsten market now faces record prices, acute shortages outside China and rising geopolitical risk. As a result, investors and consumers across the global tungsten market are reassessing where to source and where to deploy capital.

China’s export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten trioxide have sharply reduced export availability. At the same time, China’s surging appetite for tungsten concentrates has deepened shortages in Europe and other consuming regions. Therefore, tungsten prices have climbed to record levels in both APT and concentrate markets.

Meanwhile, import data show that China has become an aggressive buyer of concentrates, with first-half 2025 imports up 75pc year on year. This shift has pushed European and Japanese buyers to pursue alternative strategies, including buying concentrates instead of APT and intensifying recycling and non-Chinese partnerships.

Supply shock exposes vulnerabilities in the global tungsten market

China accounts for roughly 80pc of global APT supply and is now exporting far less material. Since Beijing expanded its export licence regime in February, APT exports dropped by 42pc in January-June 2025 versus a year earlier. Similarly, exports of tungsten trioxide fell by 76pc, leaving European consumers scrambling for units.

As a result, European APT prices have surged to fresh highs of $580–645/mtu duty unpaid Rotterdam. This represents a roughly 20pc increase since the start of the year and a jump from $550–600/mtu only days earlier. European tungsten concentrate prices have followed, rising to $500–520/dmtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up nearly 30pc year on year.

Consequently, downstream consumers and midstream processors are re-engineering their sourcing models. Buyers are shifting from APT to concentrates where possible and are strengthening ties with alternative suppliers such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Japanese buyers are boosting recycling rates and deepening co-operation with smelters in Germany and the US to reduce exposure to China.

However, traders find themselves squeezed as limited material flows directly to end users. Many trading houses are sidelined in spot activity and instead look to position themselves with long-term strategies and optionality. This structural shift underlines how fragile and concentrated current tungsten supply chains remain.

Uncertain outlook complicates investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects

On paper, today’s high prices and tightness strongly support new western tungsten projects. Yet equity and debt investors remain wary about whether current conditions in the global tungsten market are durable. Many tungsten mining projects are years from production, and investors fear that a shift in Chinese policy could quickly loosen fundamentals.

Geopolitics further clouds the investment case. The evolving US-China trade conflict and Europe’s position “in the middle” both influence tungsten flows but do not offer clear long-term signals. The US is accelerating efforts to secure domestic supply and support new mines, while Europe is also expected to attract investment as it seeks strategic autonomy. Still, long-term policy direction remains uncertain.

At the same time, Chinese producers stress that tightness reflects genuine domestic demand, not a short-term export tactic. China’s industrial strategy has moved from low-cost manufacturing toward high-value sectors such as photovoltaics. Forecasts suggest tungsten-wire demand from the PV sector could grow 40–50pc annually over the next five years, requiring around 8,000t of tungsten by 2027.

Therefore, it appears unlikely that China will import large volumes of concentrates only to flood European markets later. While China clearly has the ability to do so, conference participants see that scenario as implausible given the strength of its internal consumption. For now, the base case is high but stabilising prices, with the next few months likely to shape long-term procurement and investment decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s gradual pivot from “world’s tungsten factory” to voracious downstream consumer is forcing a structural repricing of risk. For miners and financiers outside China, the challenge is to move before the window closes, yet not overbuild into a market still governed by Beijing’s policy choices. Buyers who secure diversified, traceable tungsten supply now may find that this period of pain ultimately buys them strategic resilience.

Europe EV Growth Rises as Incentives Mask Fragile Demand Signals

Europe EV

Europe EV growth accelerated last month as battery electric vehicle sales rose by 41%, supported by tax incentives, fleet buying and carmakers’ efforts to meet emissions targets. The increase looks strong on paper, but the drivers of demand remain uneven across markets.

Battery electric vehicle sales outpaced plug-in hybrid sales, which rose by 32% across the EU, EFTA and UK. Regular hybrid vehicle sales increased by 15%, while petrol and diesel sales continued to decline across major European markets.

Europe EV growth was strongest in large markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Spain again stood out for plug-in hybrid growth, showing that national policy, consumer economics and model availability continue to shape adoption differently.

The headline growth is important for battery metals and automotive supply chains. Higher BEV sales support long-term demand for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets.

Incentives and Fleet Orders Drive the Near-Term Recovery

Tax policy remains one of the main engines behind Europe EV growth. Several member states entered the year with revised company car rules, income-linked subsidies or accelerated depreciation schemes for electric vehicles.

These measures have favoured fleet buyers more than private consumers. Corporate fleets can respond faster to tax incentives, depreciation benefits and emissions rules because they buy vehicles in larger volumes and plan replacements more systematically.

France has tightened the link between EV support and income. Germany’s recovery has been supported by targeted incentives reintroduced in January after earlier policy volatility disrupted demand.

This matters because fleet-led growth can be less stable than broad consumer adoption. Fleet orders can lift sales quickly, but private demand is still sensitive to price, charging access, financing costs and residual value concerns.

Carmakers are also working to meet CO₂ limits. This creates another demand driver that is not purely consumer-led. Automakers may use pricing, leasing and fleet channels to push EV registrations when regulatory targets tighten.

For metals markets, the distinction matters. Stable private adoption creates more predictable battery material demand. Incentive-driven fleet demand can be more volatile if policy changes or budget support weakens.

Oil Shock Adds Uncertainty to EV Demand Outlook

Higher oil prices after the US-Iran war have revived the question of whether fuel costs are pushing consumers toward electric vehicles. However, the evidence is not yet clear.

EV demand was already rising in key markets before the oil shock. Early-year growth appears to reflect incentives, fleet orders and emissions compliance more than a direct consumer shift caused by higher fuel costs.

There is also a timing lag. Vehicle orders usually appear in sales data several weeks later, and delivery times vary by model and country. Any clear oil-price effect may not appear until June or July.

This caution is important because monthly EV data can be distorted by local registration patterns. The UK, for example, often sees a March registration spike because of its plate change system.

The broader strategic message remains clear. If Europe wants to reduce exposure to oil shocks, it needs consistent carbon rules, pollution-based taxation, charging infrastructure and long-term industrial policy.

Stop-start subsidies can create temporary sales jumps, but they can also damage market confidence. Stable rules are more useful for automakers, battery producers, charging companies and metals suppliers.

Europe EV growth therefore remains real but fragile. The region is moving away from petrol and diesel, yet the pace still depends heavily on policy design and fleet purchasing behaviour.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe EV growth is not yet a clean demand signal for battery metals because incentives and fleet buying are doing much of the work. The stronger long-term signal will come when private buyers adopt EVs without policy volatility or fuel-price panic.

European zinc premiums stay stable as LME stocks decline

European Zinc

European zinc premiums remained stable this week even as LME stocks fell further and demand stayed muted. Market participants report that European zinc premiums for special high-grade (SHG) material are caught between weak spot consumption and tightening warehouse inventories. As a result, the regional zinc market is balanced more by opposing forces than by any clear bullish or bearish trend.

Weak demand offsets tightening LME zinc stocks

Spot demand for SHG zinc in Europe remains subdued as industrial activity stays soft across core consuming sectors. However, lower buying interest has prevented European zinc premiums from reacting more strongly to the latest drawdown in exchange inventories. Buyers feel little urgency to chase units, even as visible stocks trend lower.

At the same time, LME three-month zinc prices show only modest movement. Prices settled at $2,930/t, down just 0.71pc week on week, underlining the market’s cautious tone. Meanwhile, LME zinc stocks fell another 6.63pc to 46,825t, tightening the buffer of readily available metal. Therefore, investors and physical traders are watching whether continued stock draws eventually push European zinc premiums higher if demand recovers.

New South African copper-zinc supply on the horizon

Supply-side developments also matter for long-term zinc balance. Australian developer Orion Minerals recently signed a non-binding term sheet with Glencore for up to $250mn in financing. The funds will support development of the Prieska copper-zinc mine in South Africa’s Northern Cape, alongside long-term concentrate offtake.

Prieska holds 31mn t grading 1.2pc copper and 3.6pc zinc, with a planned two-phase mine life of 13.2 years. Steady-state output is targeted at 65,000 t/yr of zinc and 30,000 t/yr of copper, which will add a meaningful new stream of concentrates into global flows once in production. As a result, prospective new supply such as Prieska could eventually ease tightness in refined markets and influence future European zinc premiums.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s zinc market is in a stand-off between demand weakness and steadily falling LME inventories. The next decisive move in European zinc premiums will likely depend on whether macro demand recovers first or new concentrate supply, like Prieska, arrives fast enough to cap any tightening. For now, physical players are managing exposure carefully, treating stability as temporary rather than structural.

Tungsten Market Faces Disruptions as China Imposes Export Controls on APT

Ammonium Paratungstate

The recent announcement by China to place ammonium para-tungstate (APT) and tungsten concentrate under strict export controls has sparked significant price increases in the European market. As buyers scramble to secure material, European consumers are seeking to build "safety stocks" to ensure supply continuity amid the uncertainty surrounding these export restrictions.

China's Export Controls Create Supply Chain Concerns

China's decision to add APT and tungsten concentrate to its list of dual-use items has left global tungsten buyers on edge. With this new regulation, Chinese suppliers have hesitated to provide fresh price quotes, waiting for clearer instructions and permits from the Chinese government. This delay in pricing is expected to persist for around 45 days, further exacerbating concerns in the tungsten market.

As the export controls limit available material, European and Japanese markets are expected to feel the greatest impact. While U.S. buyers primarily rely on tungsten scrap for their needs, prices for this resource are also expected to rise due to the overall global tightness in tungsten supply. European buyers are particularly active in sourcing material outside of China, not due to increased demand, but to secure stock ahead of anticipated supply disruptions.

Verification of End-Use Creates Delays and Bottlenecks

The new export regulations require Chinese exporters to notify authorities of the final end-user and application of the tungsten products, adding another layer of complexity to the supply chain. The verification process, which ensures that the material isn't being used for military purposes, is expected to create significant delays. With approximately 70% of Japan's tungsten imports coming from China, these controls are likely to disrupt the Japanese market the most. The European Union also faces similar challenges, with imports from China making up a substantial portion of its tungstate needs.

Impact on Global Markets and Price Forecasts

While the Chinese export restrictions are expected to drive prices up, particularly in Europe and Japan, the full impact remains uncertain. Tungsten is crucial for a variety of industrial applications, with APT serving as the intermediate material for producing tungsten oxides and powders. However, with limited available stock and supply chain disruptions, some market participants worry that the price increases could become more drastic.

The situation has drawn comparisons to China's antimony export delays, which have significantly disrupted the European market and caused prices to surge. The tungsten market may face similar challenges as supply becomes even more constrained, with both APT and tungsten concentrate prices continuing to climb.

Conclusion: A Fragile Market with Rising Prices

As the global tungsten market grapples with China's export controls, prices for APT and tungsten concentrates are likely to remain volatile. The duration and enforcement of these new controls will determine the severity of the price hikes, and the market will need time to adjust to the changing dynamics. With Europe and Japan facing the most significant challenges, the tungsten supply chain will need to adapt to avoid further disruption.

Metlen Gallium Production Marks a Strategic Step for European Supply

Metlen

Metlen gallium production marks an important strategic shift in Europe’s critical minerals landscape. The Greek company has produced gallium for the first time at its Agios Nikolaos plant as a by-product of bauxite processing. The initial 5kg volume is small, but the significance is far larger than the tonnage. As a result, Metlen gallium production has become an early sign that Europe is trying to rebuild domestic gallium capability.

This development matters because European gallium supply has remained heavily exposed to China for years. Europe has lacked commercial-scale primary gallium production since 2016. Meanwhile, China’s export controls have tightened the market and increased supply anxiety across high-tech sectors. Therefore, gallium production in Greece is emerging as a strategically important industrial response.

The project also stands out because it is linked to an existing industrial base. Metlen is not building a stand-alone concept without feedstock. It is extracting gallium from bauxite processing at an operating site. Consequently, Metlen gallium production benefits from stronger industrial logic than a purely greenfield critical minerals project.

European Gallium Supply Could Gain a Rare New Domestic Anchor

European gallium supply could gain a much-needed domestic anchor if Metlen executes its ramp-up successfully. The company plans to continue increasing output through 2026, with a further 5-10t expected in 2027. It then aims to reach 50 t/yr by 2028. That would make Greece one of the largest gallium suppliers outside China.

The scale of that future output is highly significant for Europe. Metlen has indicated that full-capacity production could cover all European gallium imports. That would not only improve supply security. It would also give Europe more leverage in a critical material tied to semiconductors, electronics, and defense-related technologies. Therefore, European gallium supply may finally be moving from dependence toward limited strategic resilience.

The timing also strengthens the project’s relevance. China’s gallium export controls since 2023 have helped squeeze global availability and lift prices. Buyers now understand that niche metals can quickly become geopolitical chokepoints. As a result, even relatively small western gallium projects now carry outsized strategic value.

Gallium Production in Greece Shows How Europe May Rebuild Critical Minerals Capacity

Gallium production in Greece also shows a practical model for Europe’s broader critical minerals strategy. Instead of relying only on new mining projects, Europe can extract value from existing refining and processing chains. That approach may be faster, less capital-intensive, and easier to integrate into current industrial systems. Meanwhile, it can still strengthen supply chain security in meaningful ways.

Financial backing reinforces that strategic direction. The European Investment Bank has approved €90mn in financing for the project, including bauxite mining modernization and the new gallium facility. That support suggests Europe is willing to fund targeted projects that improve industrial sovereignty. Consequently, Metlen gallium production is becoming more than a company milestone. It is also a policy signal.

The broader lesson is clear for metals markets. Critical minerals security is no longer just about owning reserves. It is about processing capability, by-product recovery, and industrial coordination. Therefore, gallium production in Greece may become a template for how Europe rebuilds selected materials capacity under geopolitical pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a small-volume development with large strategic implications. Gallium may be a niche metal, but its supply concentration has made it highly important. If Metlen reaches scale, Europe will have proven that by-product recovery can become a credible tool in critical minerals strategy.