Codelco Copper Performance Faces Review Under Chile’s Kast Administration

Codelco

Codelco copper performance will come under tougher scrutiny as Chile’s new administration prepares to review the state-controlled miner’s finances, management and operational execution. Economy and mining minister Daniel Mas said the government will take a “very critical look” at Codelco to ensure it remains a major national company.

Codelco copper performance matters because the company remains one of the world’s largest copper producers, with direct output of 1.3mn t in 2025 and 1.4mn t including its share in non-operated mines. Any operational weakness at Codelco has direct implications for Chile’s copper supply, fiscal revenue and global refined copper expectations.

Codelco copper performance has also become a political issue because the company faces rising debt, safety concerns and cost overruns at major mine-life extension projects. The shareholder review scheduled for 20 April will focus on areas requiring concrete measures to improve performance.

Debt, Cost Overruns and Mine Projects Drive Government Scrutiny

The Kast administration’s review will examine Codelco’s financial position, management quality, safety record and project execution. Mas pointed to cost overruns tied to the renovation of Codelco’s corporate offices in Santiago and major investments at Rajo Inca and Chuquicamata underground.

These projects are strategically important because they support mine-life extensions at core Chilean copper assets. However, overruns can pressure capital discipline at a time when copper producers already face higher costs, lower ore grades and more complex underground development.

Mas also highlighted Codelco’s debt burden. The company took on $8.7bn in debt to help finance around $7bn in contributions to the state between 2022 and 2025, creating tension between its role as a national revenue source and its need to reinvest in production stability.

Lithium Strategy Review Adds Another Layer to Codelco’s Role

The government also plans to review Chile’s national lithium strategy inherited from the previous administration. However, Mas said the Codelco-SQM lithium venture will have security to operate if all legal stages have been completed.

Chile’s comptroller general approved the joint venture in December 2025, which was regarded as the final condition for the deal. The transaction gives Codelco 50% plus one share in Nova Lithium, the joint venture with SQM.

Mas argued that Codelco’s 2025 profit of $2.4bn was not a pure copper result, because only $388mn came from copper sales. The rest came mainly from the fair value of the SQM-linked lithium acquisition, adding to debate over how Codelco’s performance should be measured.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s review of Codelco shows that national copper champions face rising pressure to prove operational discipline, not only resource ownership. The bigger issue is whether Codelco can fund copper renewal, manage lithium expansion and still deliver fiscal value to the state.

 

Codelco Copper Output Stabilises as Middle East Crisis Raises Cost Risk

Codelco

Codelco copper output stabilised in 2025, but rising energy, diesel, reagent and logistics costs linked to the Middle East crisis could complicate the company’s recovery path. Chile’s state-owned copper producer reported a 0.5% increase in copper output to 1.33mn t, while total attributable production reached 1.44mn t.

The modest improvement showed that Codelco copper output has started to recover after several years of operational pressure. However, the company still faced mixed performance across major divisions, including lower output at El Teniente, Chuquicamata and Gabriela Mistral.

Codelco copper output is expected to rise only slightly in 2026 to 1.331mn–1.357mn t. That guidance highlights the limited pace of supply growth at one of the world’s most important copper producers, even as demand from grids, electrification and industrial investment remains structurally strong.

Fuel and Sulphuric Acid Costs Threaten Copper Margins

The Middle East crisis is creating a new cost risk for copper producers. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists, higher diesel prices, tighter logistics and rising input costs could feed directly into mining cost structures.

Diesel is a key cost driver for haulage, power generation, processing and mine-site operations. Market participants estimate that copper mining costs can rise by 5–10% for every $50/bl increase in oil prices, making fuel volatility a direct margin threat.

Sulphur supply is another concern because it is used to produce sulphuric acid for copper leaching. This risk is especially acute for hydrometallurgical producers in the African Copperbelt, but higher global acid costs could still affect broader copper market sentiment.

Codelco’s own cost base was already rising before the latest geopolitical shock. Direct cash costs increased 4.8% to $2.09/lb in 2025, while total costs rose 14% to $3.73/lb because of higher operating activity, exchange-rate effects and inflation.

Stable Output Masks Deeper Structural Pressure

Codelco described 2025 as a year of stabilisation and productive transition. Ministro Hales lifted output by 25% to 153,000t, while Radomiro Tomic increased production by 9.2% to 295,000t.

However, several core assets remained under pressure. El Teniente output fell 13% to 310,000t, Chuquicamata declined 8% to 265,800t, and Gabriela Mistral dropped 20% to 82,000t.

The company also reported record capital expenditure of $5.07bn in 2025, showing the rising investment required to sustain production. Deeper deposits, lower ore grades and more complex operations are making copper supply more capital-intensive.

This reinforces the longer-term copper supply challenge. Even with stabilising production, Codelco’s guidance points to only incremental growth, while cost inflation could delay marginal projects and pressure higher-cost operations if the conflict continues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s results show that copper supply risk is shifting from simple output loss to cost inflation and capital intensity. The market may still focus on tonnes, but diesel, sulphuric acid and project execution costs will increasingly decide how much copper supply can grow profitably.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal reshapes a top-tier mine complex

Anglo American Codelco

The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal will turn Los Bronces–Andina into a true global copper powerhouse. The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal integrates mine planning between the adjacent operations and targets 120,000 t/yr of extra copper. As a result, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal could unlock at least $5bn in cost savings over 21 years.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal targets more metal at lower unit costs

The agreement aligns long-term mine plans at Los Bronces and Andina to optimise ore scheduling and processing. A joint plan is expected to deliver an additional 2.7mn t of copper from 2030 over 21 years. Therefore, the complex should cut unit costs by up to 15pc versus standalone strategies, with little extra capital.

Combined Los Bronces–Andina output already ranks among the world’s top 10 copper mines. The planned production uplift would push the integrated complex into the global top five. A new jointly owned operating company will manage planning and processing optimisation across both mines. However, each partner will still retain ownership of its own concessions and physical assets.

Under the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal, output, costs and liabilities will be shared equally. Anglo American Sur, which operates Los Bronces, remains 50.1pc owned by Anglo American, 20.4pc by Mitsubishi and 29.5pc by Becrux, Codelco and Mitsui’s joint venture. Both sides also keep the option to advance separate underground projects in parallel, preserving flexibility for future expansions.

Strategic timing as Chilean copper supply and Anglo’s portfolio evolve

The timing of the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal coincides with tight copper supply and rising prices. Markets are closely watching long-term additions in Chile, given strong demand from energy transition and data centre infrastructure. Therefore, a low-capex, brownfield uplift at an existing complex looks especially attractive to investors and customers.

Implementation still depends on regulatory and environmental approvals, which both firms expect to secure by 2030. Chilean authorities will scrutinise water, emissions and community impacts, especially in the high Andes. However, the partnership structure signals a willingness to share not only upside, but also ESG responsibilities. This is increasingly important as financiers and OEMs demand clearer sustainability performance from large copper suppliers.

The deal also follows Anglo American’s recently announced merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group. That transaction would consolidate a major iron ore, copper and zinc business with a much deeper project pipeline. In that context, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal strengthens the future group’s position in premium Chilean copper. It also deepens Anglo’s relationship with Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer and a key state partner.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how value in copper is shifting from greenfield megaprojects to smarter integration of existing belts. By coordinating mine plans and plant utilisation, Anglo and Codelco aim to extract more metal with less new capital and lower unit costs. Market participants should watch the permitting pathway and any future expansion of this model to other Chilean districts as a template for collaborative de-risking.

Codelco Teams Up with Rio Tinto and BHP to Boost Chile Copper Exploration

Codelco

Strategic Copper Partnerships Target Atacama and Antofagasta Regions

Codelco has partnered with Rio Tinto and BHP to expand copper exploration in Chile, strengthening its role in the global copper supply chain. These two separate strategic deals target the Atacama and Antofagasta regions — two of the world’s most copper-rich zones — and reflect increasing investment in high-potential, underexplored areas.

Codelco and Rio Tinto formed a joint venture to explore the Nuevo Cobre region in the Atacama Desert, where Rio Tinto holds a 57.7% stake and Codelco 42.2%. The collaboration focuses on mineral extraction around the Potrerillos smelter and San Antonio property. Over the next 12 months, both parties will co-finance technical studies and business plans, with an option to extend the partnership timeline.

BHP Commits $40 Million to Study Codelco Sites

In a separate agreement, Codelco granted exclusive exploration rights to BHP for 34 properties in the Antofagasta region, including the early-stage Anillo project, which spans over 59,000 acres. BHP will invest up to $40 million to assess the copper potential of these sites.

If BHP deems the project commercially viable, it will partner with Codelco to move forward with development. Otherwise, all research and data generated during the study period will revert to Codelco. This structure enables Codelco to retain strategic optionality while leveraging private-sector exploration capital.

Chile Reinforces Global Copper Leadership Through Collaboration

These agreements signal a new era of public-private collaboration in Chile’s mining sector, with Codelco leveraging global mining majors to accelerate exploration. The deals also highlight the growing urgency to secure future copper supply amid rising demand from clean energy infrastructure and electric vehicles.

As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile remains critical to global decarbonization goals. These joint efforts aim to unlock new deposits and ensure a stable, diversified copper pipeline for the decade ahead.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s dual alliances with Rio Tinto and BHP represent a strategic blueprint for unlocking untapped copper resources while sharing risk. With global copper supply tightening, such partnerships are essential to ensuring long-term mineral security — especially in geopolitically stable, resource-rich countries like Chile.

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident

Codelco

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident but still signals a gradual production recovery into 2026 and beyond. The Chilean state miner now forecasts 2025 output at 1.31mn-1.34mn t, down from 1.34mn-1.37mn t. However, Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still expecting volumes to exceed 2024 levels and support its 2030 growth plan.

El Teniente setback weighs on short-term copper supply

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident after a fatal incident on 31 July cut third-quarter production by 22,100t. The mine, which produced 356,000t last year, will need up to three years to regain capacity. As a result, global copper supply for 2025–26 looks tighter than previously expected.

The accident caused six deaths and triggered a deep review of safety and infrastructure at El Teniente. Codelco has started comprehensive safety and monitoring reforms, with a full incident report due by late 2025. Meanwhile, other assets such as Ministro Hales and Rajo Inca helped offset part of the lost tonnage. Rajo Inca has already added 21,200t this year, with construction 93pc complete.

Codelco’s January-September copper output rose 2.1pc year on year to 937,000t despite the setback. Including stakes in El Abra, Anglo American Sur and Quebrada Blanca, total group production reached 1.016mn t, up 1.4pc. This underscores how Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still stabilising the broader portfolio.

Financial resilience and capex support long-term target

Codelco delivered resilient financials in the first nine months of 2025, helped by firmer copper prices. Pre-tax profit slipped slightly to $606.9mn, just 0.86pc below last year’s level. Ebitda, however, rose 3.4pc year on year to $4.16bn, while contributions to the state treasury climbed 16.5pc to $1.24bn.

The company has executed $3.61bn in capital expenditure to September, within its $4.3bn-5bn annual range. Structural projects aim to stabilise and then lift production over the next decade. Management still targets 1.7mn t of copper output by 2030, anchoring Chile’s role as a core supplier.

Codelco’s trimmed guidance adds another constraint to global copper balances for 2026. Last month, the group lifted its 2026 European copper cathode premium to a record $325/t. That represents almost a 40pc increase from this year, reflecting tighter supply, elevated logistics costs and rising disruption risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s modest guidance cut shows how operational shocks at a single Tier-1 mine can ripple through global copper markets. The record 2026 European premium underlines that smelters and fabricators increasingly pay for reliability, not just metal units. For downstream users in energy transition sectors, hedging both price and physical availability will remain a strategic priority as large brownfield projects navigate safety upgrades and complex ramp-ups.

Codelco to Supply Copper Concentrate to Adani's Kutch Smelter

Codelco

Codelco Strengthens Presence in India’s Copper Market

Codelco will supply copper concentrate to Adani Group’s new Kutch smelter in Gujarat, marking a major Indo-Chilean trade step. The smelter, commissioned on 28 March, will initially produce 500,000 t/yr of copper. Phase two aims to double that capacity. Codelco views India’s fast-growing economy as a key market for critical metals like copper.

Adani's Kutch Smelter Targets Domestic Demand

Adani’s smelter includes a copper refinery, wire rod unit, acid plant, and precious metals recovery facility. The project supports India's import substitution drive, aiming to meet surging copper demand domestically. All output will serve the Indian market, reflecting the nation’s aggressive infrastructure and energy transition goals.

Codelco and Hindustan Copper Expand Cooperation

Codelco also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Hindustan Copper for mineral exploration and processing projects. This move signals long-term collaboration between two state-backed mining leaders in resource development. Such partnerships are key to securing reliable metal supply chains amid global geopolitical shifts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s strategic alignment with India’s copper industry reflects the global shift toward bilateral resource security. With India emerging as a copper demand powerhouse, such agreements ensure supply chain resilience and deeper South-South cooperation in critical minerals.

Codelco Copper Output Recovers in Q3 2024 After Setbacks

Codelco

Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco has experienced a mixed performance in 2024, with a decline in copper output for the first nine months of the year, but a recovery in the third quarter. The company’s production challenges stemmed from operational setbacks, including a fatal accident and delayed start-ups at key units. Despite these obstacles, Codelco has seen positive financial results, with adjusted earnings showing a significant increase thanks to higher copper prices.

Decline in Year-to-Date Production, but Q3 Shows Growth

For the January-September period, Codelco’s copper production fell by 5% year-on-year, reaching 918,000 tonnes. The company’s CEO, Ruben Alvarado, cited two main factors behind this decline: a fatal accident at the Radomiro Tomic unit in March, which halted operations for more than a month, and a delayed start-up at the Rajo Inca unit.

However, there was a recovery in copper output during the third quarter. Production increased by 1.5% compared to the same period last year, reaching 338,000 tonnes. Despite facing declining ore grades at some of its key deposits, Codelco has managed to stabilize output in the short term.

Strong Earnings Boosted by Higher Copper Prices

On the financial front, Codelco reported a 21% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the first nine months of 2024, totaling $4 billion. This growth was largely driven by higher copper prices, which have provided a much-needed boost amid production challenges.

Looking Ahead: New Projects Set to Boost Output

Looking ahead, Codelco expects its production to increase with the upcoming expansions at its various units. The Andes Norte expansion at the El Teniente unit is slated to begin production in the first quarter of 2025, while the Andesita project is expected to come online in the coming months. The Rajo Inca unit, which has faced delays, is also expected to begin production by the end of 2024.

Codelco Rio Tinto Partnership Targets Faster Mining Development in Chile

Codelco Rio Tinto Partnership

Codelco Rio Tinto partnership plans could accelerate major mining development in Chile as the state-owned copper and lithium group seeks deeper cooperation with global miners. The preliminary agreement will focus on identifying joint investment opportunities in large-scale mining projects across the country.

Codelco and Rio Tinto will create an executive committee made up of senior officials from both companies. The committee will identify prospective pilot projects, assess major mining opportunities, and oversee implementation where cooperation advances.

The Codelco Rio Tinto partnership reflects a broader strategic shift inside Chile’s mining sector. Codelco wants to accelerate timelines, reduce costs, and improve ESG compliance by sharing technical knowledge with established international mining companies.

Chile Turns to Partnerships to Unlock Copper and Lithium Growth

Chile remains one of the world’s most important copper producers, but project development has become more difficult. Lower ore grades, permitting complexity, water constraints, community expectations, and capital intensity are increasing the pressure on producers.

Codelco’s partnership strategy aims to address those constraints. By working with companies such as Rio Tinto, the Chilean state miner can access technical expertise, operational experience, project discipline, and global capital networks. This could help move exploration and development projects faster.

The agreement also builds on Codelco’s recent cooperation with other major miners. The company partnered with BHP last year to enhance copper exploration in the Antofagasta region. This suggests Codelco may pursue more private-sector alliances as Chile works to protect its long-term copper output.

Rio Tinto Ties Strengthen Chile’s Critical Minerals Platform

Rio Tinto and Codelco have already been strengthening their relationship through work on the Maricunga lithium project and the Nuevo Cobre region. The new agreement broadens that cooperation and positions both companies to explore additional copper and lithium opportunities.

This matters because Chile is central to both traditional mining and the energy transition supply chain. Copper remains essential for power grids, electrification, EVs, renewables, and industrial infrastructure. Lithium remains strategically important for batteries and energy storage.

The Codelco Rio Tinto partnership therefore carries value beyond individual projects. It signals that Chile’s mining future may depend increasingly on structured cooperation between state-owned champions and global mining companies with advanced technical and ESG capabilities.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s partnership model shows that Chile understands the limits of going alone in a more complex mining environment. The next competitive advantage will come from faster permitting, stronger technical execution, and alliances that can turn resource potential into reliable supply.

Codelco Secures $666mn Copper Financing Deal with JBIC

Chilean Codelco

Codelco has signed a $666mn copper financing agreement to strengthen supply ties between Chile and Japan.

JBIC Loan Reinforces Chile-Japan Copper Partnership

Chilean copper major Codelco secured a $466mn loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). An additional $200mn was co-financed by an undisclosed commercial bank, bringing the deal total to $666mn.

This move follows Codelco’s announcement of 2024 copper production reaching 1.44mn metric tonnes, reclaiming its spot as the world’s top copper producer. The funding aims to guarantee a stable supply of Chilean copper concentrate to Japan, according to Codelco.

JBIC Governor Hayashi Nobumitsu emphasized the strategic importance of the deal. He noted it could pave the way for future investment in critical minerals such as lithium.

Broader Mineral Ties Strengthen in Lithium Triangle

In 2023, Codelco formed a joint venture with SQM to produce 300,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2030. This lithium expansion reinforces Japan's interest in the Lithium Triangle, which includes Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.

Japan’s Toyota Tsusho Group already holds a 25% stake in the Salar de Olaroz lithium mine in Argentina, showing a growing trend of resource-linked partnerships in South America.

These developments signal Japan’s intention to secure long-term access to copper and battery metals, essential for its industrial and clean energy ambitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco's financing agreement with JBIC signals more than a capital injection. It reflects a broader geopolitical alignment between Chile’s mineral sector and Japan’s energy security strategy. As global demand for both copper and lithium intensifies, strategic funding deals like this will shape the future of critical mineral trade.

Codelco El Teniente restart steadies Chile’s copper supply outlook

El Teniente

Codelco El Teniente restart is underway after the 31 July seismic accident. The Codelco El Teniente restart brings back output from safe areas. This Codelco El Teniente restart helps stabilize Chile’s copper supply as operations resume under tighter oversight.

Operations resume across safe sectors

Codelco restarted work on 9–10 August with 70% staffing in unaffected sectors. Authorities cleared Pilar Norte, Panel Esmeralda, Esmeralda, Pacífico Superior, Diablo Regimiento, Panel Reno, Dacita, and Reservas Norte. However, Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante remain suspended for structural checks. The accident caused six fatalities after an earthquake-triggered rockfall in the Andesita area. Codelco concluded search and rescue on 3 August.

Supply implications for the copper market

The phased restart reduces disruption risk to copper concentrate flows. Therefore, Chilean smelters and global buyers gain short-term confidence. El Teniente is the world’s largest underground copper mine by scale. Meanwhile, Codelco’s January–May copper output reached 568,600t, up 8.2% year on year. El Teniente contributed 141,400t, rising 11.9% year on year. These gains could cushion market tightness as 2025–2026 demand grows.

Safety, sequencing, and operational priorities

Codelco is prioritizing safety-led sequencing while restoring mine logistics. As a result, repair timelines in damaged panels will dictate throughput recovery. Contractors will focus on ground support, geotechnical monitoring, and haulage integrity. Buyers should expect stable shipments from cleared sectors, with contingency stocks guiding deliveries. However, any aftershocks or permitting delays could still affect concentrate availability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s staged restart underscores how seismic risk management shapes Latin American copper reliability. Expect buyers to diversify offtake and build safety stocks while Chile’s flagship mine completes structural remediation.

Chile Copper Production Falls as Mature Mines and Acid Costs Pressure Supply

Chile Copper minnig

Chile copper production fell sharply in the first quarter, deepening concerns over near-term supply from the world’s largest copper-producing country. Output declined by 5.8% year on year to 1.217mn t.

Chile copper production weakness was driven by lower output from mature mines, softer grades and weaker refined cathode production. March was especially weak, with national copper output down 9% from a year earlier.

Chile copper production matters because the global copper market is already facing tight concentrate availability, fragile refined flows and stronger demand from grids, electrification and data centres.

The decline reinforces a core market concern. Higher copper prices are not quickly translating into higher mine output, especially in countries where ageing assets and delayed projects continue to limit supply response.

Concentrate Output Falls as Major Mines Underperform

Chile’s copper concentrate output fell by 6% year on year to around 947,000t in the first quarter. Concentrates accounted for almost 78% of the country’s total mine output.

The weakness was visible across both state-owned and private producers. Escondida remained Chile’s largest copper mine with 311,600t in the quarter, followed by Codelco at 299,600t, including stakes in El Abra and Anglo American Sur.

Codelco’s own divisions produced around 271,600t. The company is targeting 1.344mn t this year after producing about 1.33mn t in 2025.

The first-quarter result keeps pressure on Codelco to stabilise output after several years of structural underperformance. Ageing mines, delayed projects and higher operating costs remain key constraints.

March data showed broad weakness at the largest mines. Codelco output fell by nearly 10% year on year to 110,900t, while Escondida declined by almost 16% to 101,600t.

Collahuasi, jointly owned by Glencore and Anglo American, produced 31,400t in March, down 10.8% from a year earlier. Its first-quarter output totalled 88,200t.

Other major producers also faced pressure. Los Pelambres produced 69,600t, Anglo American Sur 58,200t, Quebrada Blanca 55,500t and Spence 44,600t during the quarter.

Antofagasta produced 143,000t of copper in the quarter. The company cited lower processing rates and weaker grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela concentrates.

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca was one of the more stable performers. The mine produced 55,500t despite planned maintenance and a shorter February, supported by stronger March throughput and recoveries.

SX-EW Cathode Weakness Exposes Chile to Acid and Fuel Costs

Chile’s refined SX-EW cathode output reached 269,300t in the first quarter. January output increased, but February and March both fell from a year earlier.

Refined electrolytic cathode output was weaker at 107,000t. March production fell by 38.7% year on year, pulling total refined cathode output to about 376,300t.

This matters because Chile’s oxide and SX-EW operations are increasingly exposed to sulphuric acid availability and pricing. Acid is a reagent cost for leaching operations.

Smelters can benefit from higher sulphuric acid prices when they sell acid as a by-product. SX-EW producers face the opposite exposure, as higher acid costs directly pressure operating margins.

Higher diesel prices are adding to the problem. Codelco said Middle East-related cost increases lifted its cash cost by at least 10¢/lb.

Antucoya also showed the cost pressure. Output weakened, while costs rose by 23% year on year to $3.03/lb on higher sulphuric acid and diesel prices.

Chile’s investment pipeline remains significant but long-dated. Freeport-McMoRan has started environmental permitting for a $7.5bn expansion of El Abra.

The project aims to lift production to around 300,000 t/yr from 91,400t in 2025. But it requires a new concentrator and desalination plant and is not expected to start until the next decade.

That timing is critical for the market. Chile has projects, but they will not solve immediate supply tightness.

The first-quarter decline therefore strengthens copper’s structural bull case. Global demand is rising, while Chile’s mature mine base is struggling to deliver stable growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper problem is no longer only grade decline; it is now a combined issue of mine maturity, acid exposure, fuel costs and delayed expansion. The market should treat Chilean supply recovery as a slow process, not a quick response to record copper prices.

Stagnation in Copper Production at Codelco Amidst Broader Chilean Growth

Codelco

In a surprising turn of events, Codelco, the state-run mining giant of Chile, reported no change in its copper production for October this year, according to the latest data from the Chilean copper commission, Cochilco. Despite this stagnation, overall copper production within Chile showcased a noticeable increase, highlighting a divergent trend between the national giant and other producers.

Codelco's Performance: A Closer Look

In detail, Codelco's five active copper mines collectively maintained their output at 127,900 metric tonnes in October, mirroring the production levels of October 2023. This static performance is part of a broader context where Codelco has seen a year-to-date production decrease of 4.5%, with a total of 1.115 million tonnes produced so far, compared to the previous year.

Chile's Broader Copper Market

Contrasting with Codelco’s flat output, BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, experienced a significant production boost. It reported a 22% increase, with production reaching 108,000 tonnes in October. This spike contributed substantially to Chile's total copper production, which increased by 6.35% to 488,900 tonnes compared to the same month last year.

The divergence in production trends highlights the varying operational efficiencies and possibly differing geological challenges faced by these entities. This scenario paints a complex picture of Chile's copper sector, where not all players are experiencing growth uniformly.

Codelco Secures 1.5TWh of Renewable Energy to Power Copper Operations

Codelco

Chilean copper giant advances toward 100% clean energy target

Chilean copper producer Codelco signed two major renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) totaling 1.5TWh annually, supporting its goal of achieving a 100% clean energy matrix by 2030. The deals highlight Codelco’s commitment to sustainable copper production through long-term renewable energy sourcing.

New PPAs cover full operations and future demand

The first PPA grants 1TWh/year to Generadora Metropolitana, a joint venture between France’s EDF and Chile’s AME. The second assigns 0.5TWh/year to GR Power Chile, backed by Spain’s Grenergy. These agreements will begin in January 2026 and run through December 2040. They will supply power across Codelco’s mining divisions and cover future expansions.

Grenergy confirmed the energy will come from hybrid projects, including the 340MW Monte Aguilar photovoltaic plant and battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the Biobio region. The agreement guarantees 24/7 electricity availability.

Codelco deepens clean energy strategy

This follows Codelco’s previous 2024 PPAs totaling 1.8TWh/year signed with Colbun, Atlas Renewable Energy, and Innergex. Together, these efforts support Chile’s broader decarbonization goals while ensuring energy security for one of the world’s most critical copper producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s strategic shift to clean energy solidifies Chile’s role in low-carbon copper supply. These PPAs also reflect the global mining sector’s accelerating push toward sustainability amid growing ESG expectations. 

Codelco Lowers 2025 Copper Guidance at El Teniente

Codelco mine

Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente after a fatal seismic incident. The pause removed 33,000t from output and lifted losses to $340mn. Therefore, Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente as damaged sectors remain offline. Guidance updates will follow in the coming days.

Operations are only partly restored while several zones stay halted. Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante face structural damage. Meanwhile, ore movements resumed, with 76,400t sent to Colon and 9,900t to Sewell. As a result, Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente despite incremental throughput.

Safety, Timeline, and Production Impact

The incident occurred on 31 July after an earthquake triggered a rockfall. Six workers tragically lost their lives in the Andesita region. The mine is the world’s largest underground copper operation. However, full-area inspections continue to constrain mining fronts. Therefore, 2025 guidance must reflect narrower access and slower sequencing.

Market Implications and Near-Term Priorities

Copper supply risk rises as Chile’s flagship asset pares plans. Price effects hinge on the duration of sector closures and mill feed. Codelco prioritizes geotechnical remediation and safe restart protocols. As a result, near-term volumes rely on alternative stopes and stockpiles. Investors should track repair milestones and concentrator stability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This cut reinforces how geotechnical shocks can reshape copper balance sheets fast. Expect tighter Chilean guidance until remediation unlocks high-grade panels. Watch repair cadence, dilution control, and smelter feed quality into 2025.

Surge in Copper Production: Codelco and BHP Lead the Way

Codelco

A Closer Look at November's Copper Production Increases

Chile's premier state-run enterprise, Codelco, along with the Australian mining giant BHP's Escondida mine, have reported significant increases in their copper production for November. This development could signal a robust period for the metal's market moving forward.

Significant Gains Amidst Global Challenges

In a detailed report from the Chilean copper commission Cochilco, it is noted that Codelco's production for November reached 133,600 tons. This figure represents a remarkable 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023, marking the highest output observed last year. Despite facing production challenges earlier in the year, Codelco has evidently managed a vigorous recovery in the latter half.

On the other hand, BHP's Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, produced 108,200 tons of copper in November alone, up by 28% from the previous year. This substantial growth underscores Escondida's critical role in the global copper market.

Variance Among Competitors

While Codelco and BHP have enjoyed production boosts, not all industry players saw the same success. The Collahuasi mine, which is a joint venture between Anglo American, Glencore, and Japan's Collahuasi Resources, experienced a downturn. The mine's output declined by nearly 24% year-on-year, totaling only 36,700 tons in November.

Despite these mixed results, the overall copper production in Chile from January to November stood at approximately 4.94 million tons, marking a 3.9% increase over the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to the strong performances of both Escondida and Codelco during the latter half of the year.

Codelco Reports Higher Profits Despite Decline in Copper Production

Chile's state-owned mining giant, Codelco, has announced a notable increase in profits for the first half of 2024, even as its copper production saw a significant decline. This paradoxical outcome underscores the complex dynamics at play within the global copper market.

During the first half of 2024, Codelco's copper production fell to 580,000 fine metric tonnes (tmf), representing an 8.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Including output from its stakes in the El Abra and Anglo American Sur mines, which it owns 49% and 20% respectively, the total production amounted to 628,000 tmf. Copper sales also saw a reduction, dropping by 8% to 791,000 tmf in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year.

Several operational challenges contributed to the decline in production. The Radomiro Tomic mine faced reduced processing capacity due to an accidental death in March, while the El Teniente mine encountered geotechnical constraints. Additionally, the Ministro Hales and El Salvador mines experienced operational delays.

Despite these setbacks, Codelco reported a remarkable profit of $653 million for the first half of 2024. This marks a stark turnaround from the $316 million loss recorded in the same period of 2023. The primary driver of this profit surge was the increased price of copper, which averaged $4.23 per pound during this period, up from $3.90 per pound a year earlier.

Codelco's CEO, Ruben Alvarado, expressed optimism about the future, stating that the company anticipates a gradual increase in production in the latter half of the year. He outlined a strategic goal for Codelco to progressively enhance its production capacity, aiming to reach a level of 1.7 million tonnes by 2030.

Copper Record High Signals Deeper Supply Stress Across Global Market

Copper

Copper record high prices on the London Metal Exchange show how quickly supply risks, regional stockbuilding and stronger Chinese demand signals are reshaping the market. Three-month LME copper settled at $14,140/t, setting a new official high and reinforcing the metal’s structural bull case.

Copper record high momentum has not come from one isolated event. It reflects a convergence of mine disruption, weak Chilean output, tight concentrate availability, sulphuric acid constraints and US tariff-related stockbuilding.

Copper record high pricing is also being supported by stronger Chinese import signals. The Yangshan copper premium rose to around $72/t, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen by 58% since 13 March to 181,333t.

Comex copper also traded at record levels at $6.485/lb, with the US contract holding a premium of nearly $700/t over LME copper. That spread shows how US tariff risk continues to pull refined metal into the American market.

Supply Risks Now Dominate Copper Pricing

Supply pressure remains the strongest driver behind the rally. Chile’s three largest copper producers all reported lower March output, with Codelco down by around 10%, Escondida down by nearly 16% and Collahuasi down by almost 11%.

Chile’s national copper output fell by around 9% over the same period. That decline matters because the market has limited spare mine capacity to absorb losses from the world’s largest copper-producing country.

Lower ore grades remain a structural problem. Ageing infrastructure, operational interruptions and delayed modernisation projects are also reducing the ability of major mines to respond quickly to higher prices.

Copper concentrate treatment charges are deeply negative in China, confirming the pressure on concentrate availability. Smelters are competing for feedstock while mine supply remains constrained.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have also become more important market variables. Middle East disruption and Chinese restrictions on sulphuric acid exports are raising risks for leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning operations.

This is especially relevant to the African copperbelt, where sulphuric acid is a critical reagent. If acid availability tightens further, production costs could rise or output could be affected in one of the world’s key copper growth regions.

Peru adds another risk point. Open-pit copper mines there depend heavily on diesel for haulage and mine movement, making sustained fuel disruption a potential operational threat.

China Demand and US Stockbuilding Split Refined Flows

China is returning as a stronger buyer of imported cathode. Falling SHFE inventories and a higher Yangshan premium suggest that domestic availability has tightened enough to revive seaborne buying interest.

China’s stronger export data also support the demand picture. April exports rose by 14.1% year on year to a record $359.44bn, beating expectations and pointing to more resilient industrial activity.

That matters for copper because electric vehicles, grid equipment, renewable energy components and battery storage all require significant copper input. Stronger industrial exports can therefore reinforce physical demand.

At the same time, US policy risk is pulling refined copper west. Tariff-related stockbuilding has created a strong Comex premium, encouraging traders to move metal into the US system.

This split is tightening ex-US availability. The US is absorbing refined units for policy protection, while China is pulling cathode back into its import market.

Fund activity has amplified the move. Trend-following money has re-entered Comex as copper broke through technical levels, making prices more sensitive to momentum flows.

The current rally may still face corrections. However, the price floor remains supported by slow mine response, fragile processing inputs and competing regional demand centres.

Copper is no longer trading only as an industrial cycle indicator. It is becoming a strategic material shaped by policy, infrastructure demand, energy transition, AI-linked power systems and supply-chain security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s record is not just a price event; it is a signal that the supply chain is losing flexibility. The strongest warning is that mine output, processing inputs and refined metal location are all tightening at the same time.

54% of the World's Copper Mines Face 'Drought Shock'

Anglo American Copper Mining

More than half of the world’s copper mines are exposed to 'drought risk'. Other major metal raw materials such as iron ore, lithium, and cobalt are also facing potential supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.

Metalnomist stated in a report published on the 24th, “Climate anomalies caused by global warming will adversely affect the supply and demand of international raw materials.” The center cited data from the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), predicting that by 2050, 54% of the world's copper mines and 74% of lithium and cobalt mines will experience reduced production due to drought. Water is essential for crushing mineral ores, separating impurities, and cleaning equipment. McKinsey highlighted that “copper, gold, iron ore, and zinc are particularly vulnerable to drought, as 30-50% of these mines are located in areas with insufficient water resources.”

Chile, which produced over 30% of the world's copper in 2020, is already suffering from severe drought. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco produced only 1,325,000 tons of copper last year, the lowest in 25 years, due to water shortages and other impacts.

15 Years of Water Shortage in the World’s Largest Copper Reserve: "If Mining Halts, Prices Could Quadruple"

Metalnomist warned on the 24th, “Mining items heavily dependent on production from specific countries are at risk of global supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.”

According to Metalnomist, 47% of the world's copper reserves are concentrated in three countries : Chile, Peru, and the Congo. 74% of iron ore is concentrated in China, Australia, and Brazil, while 80.8% of bauxite is concentrated in Guinea, China, and Brazil. Copper demand has recently surged due to the AI boom, raising concerns that any supply disruption could significantly impact the industry. Global infrastructure asset manager Macquarie Group predicts that the annual copper demand could increase by 2 million tons by 2030 due to the surge in AI data centers. Copper is crucial for the construction of both data centers and power grids.

Northern Antofagasta, Chile's largest copper and lithium deposit, is a prime example of a region unable to increase production due to water shortages. Reuters recently reported that local mining company Antofagasta PLC has been struggling to secure water supply as reservoirs have dried up due to a 15-year-long drought. In the first quarter of this year, Antofagasta PLC’s copper production decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Limited water resources are also causing conflicts with local communities. Antofagasta PLC and Australian mining company BHP were sued by Chile’s National Defense Commission (CDE) in 2022 for environmental pollution. The CDE claimed that mining companies extracted water volumes exceeding regulations, causing severe damage to the local ecosystem and indigenous communities.

Seawater desalination plants are being considered as a solution to these issues. However, the high investment costs and long construction periods limit their ability to solve water problems immediately.

Due to structural constraints on copper supply, it is predicted that copper prices could skyrocket in the coming years. Goldman Sachs projected that the average copper price next year would be $15,000 per ton. Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, analyzed that the global copper supply shortage could drive prices up to $40,000 per ton by 2028. Copper traded at a record high of $10,857 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 21st of last month, before falling to $9,563 on the 21st of this month.

The increasing demand for electricity for cooling due to heatwaves is also expected to raise the demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Metalnomist noted, “Europe is in a situation where it is inevitable to expand thermal power generation to meet the increasing electricity demand in summer,” and added, “In Asian countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, the demand for natural gas for power generation has increased.”

Codelco and Anglo American Unite to Boost Chilean Copper Output

Codelco

Andina and Los Bronces to Jointly Target 1 Million Tonnes by 2030s

Strategic Collaboration Taps 60mn t of Contained Copper in the Andes

Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper giant, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Anglo American’s 50.1%-owned AAS subsidiary to integrate operations at the Andina and Los Bronces mines. This joint strategy will target a combined production increase of 120,000 tonnes of fine copper per year from 2030 through 2051.

Ambitious Output Plan Sets 2030s Benchmark

According to Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad, the collaboration lays a clear pathway to producing over 1 million tonnes of copper annually by the early 2030s, representing a 30% increase from current output. This positions both firms as key players in meeting the world's growing copper demand driven by energy transition and electrification.

Together, Los Bronces and Andina account for 60 million tonnes of contained copper, or roughly 2% of global copper resources and reserves, underscoring the strategic weight of the partnership.

Staggered Output Performance Precedes Consolidation

In 2023, Los Bronces produced 172,000 tonnes, marking a 20.4% drop following a temporary care and maintenance phase starting in July. Meanwhile, Andina produced 181,600 tonnes, a 10% increase year-over-year, according to Chile’s Cochilco.

Despite these fluctuations, the integration plan remains on track. The companies expect to sign a definitive operational agreement in the second half of 2025, with current mine operations continuing uninterrupted until then.

This deal marks a significant shift toward operational consolidation in one of the world’s richest copper belts. It aims to improve efficiency, secure long-term output, and reinforce Chile’s dominance in the global copper market amid rising supply chain concerns.

Codelco Seeks Environmental Permit for $650 Million Water Project to Enhance Sustainability

Codelco

Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining giant, is seeking an environmental permit for a significant $650 million project aimed at improving water sustainability in its operations. The project, designed to enhance water usage efficiency at Codelco's Andina division, represents a substantial step towards reducing the environmental footprint of the company's copper mining operations.

Key Details of the Water Sustainability Project

The proposed project involves pumping water from the Ovejería tailings dam, as well as additional water sources, to the Andina concentrator plant. The distance between the tailings dam and the plant is approximately 70 kilometers (about 43 miles). The water will be transported via an underground pipeline, passing through several municipalities along the route, including Tiltil, Colina, Calle Larga, and Los Andes.

In total, the project will include the construction of three pumping stations along the pipeline route. Codelco estimates that the entire construction process will take around three years to complete.

Environmental Benefits and Water Scarcity Concerns

This project is part of Codelco's broader strategy to mitigate its environmental impact while addressing the ongoing water scarcity issues in the region. Chile, particularly in mining-heavy areas like Andina, faces significant challenges related to water availability, making this initiative a critical step in ensuring that Codelco's operations remain sustainable in the long term.

The Andina division, which operates both the Río Blanco underground mine and the Sur Sur open-pit mine, is a key part of Codelco's overall copper production. By reducing its reliance on external water sources and improving the efficiency of water use, the project aims to contribute to both environmental sustainability and the long-term viability of Codelco's mining operations.

Codelco's commitment to reducing its environmental footprint is further underscored by its efforts to develop infrastructure that minimizes the impact of its mining activities on local ecosystems and communities. The project also supports the company's strategy to ensure that water, a vital resource for mining, is used responsibly and efficiently.