El Teniente Closure Disrupts MVC Copper Tailings Supply

El Teniente

El Teniente closure halts fresh copper tailings to MVC and curbs output. The MVC plant depends on El Teniente tailings for copper and molybdenum concentrates. As a result, Amerigo Resources faces immediate production losses.

Tailings halt forces shift to historic deposits

El Teniente closure followed a fatal seismic event on 31 July. Codelco suspended work at the Andesita project after a rockfall. Meanwhile, MVC will process historic tailings near Rancagua to maintain operations. The strategy preserves cash flow but reduces recovery rates. Therefore, near-term copper concentrate volumes will remain constrained.

Quantifying the production impact and market context

El Teniente closure translates to a 100,000 lb/d copper loss at MVC. That equals roughly 45 t/d removed from near-term supply. Consequently, daily output declines until fresh tailings resume. The disruption comes as Chile remains central to global copper supply. However, single-asset dependencies expose tailings re-treaters to operational shocks.

El Teniente closure also underscores safety and reliability risks. The world’s largest underground copper mine paused after six workers died. Codelco completed search and rescue on 3 August. Even so, restart timing remains unclear and guides MVC uncertainty. Therefore, Amerigo’s guidance will hinge on Codelco’s recovery schedule.

Amerigo balances volumes and recovery amid shifting feed quality. Historic tailings often deliver lower head grades and variable metallurgy. As a result, throughput optimization and reagent control become critical. Moreover, molybdenum credits may weaken if recoveries slip. Investors should monitor grade mix, cash costs, and working capital.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tailings reprocessing adds low-capex copper units but carries feed-source risk. MVC’s pivot to historic deposits cushions revenue, yet margin dilution is likely. A quick El Teniente restart would limit market impact; prolonged downtime tightens regional concentrates.

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident

Codelco

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident but still signals a gradual production recovery into 2026 and beyond. The Chilean state miner now forecasts 2025 output at 1.31mn-1.34mn t, down from 1.34mn-1.37mn t. However, Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still expecting volumes to exceed 2024 levels and support its 2030 growth plan.

El Teniente setback weighs on short-term copper supply

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident after a fatal incident on 31 July cut third-quarter production by 22,100t. The mine, which produced 356,000t last year, will need up to three years to regain capacity. As a result, global copper supply for 2025–26 looks tighter than previously expected.

The accident caused six deaths and triggered a deep review of safety and infrastructure at El Teniente. Codelco has started comprehensive safety and monitoring reforms, with a full incident report due by late 2025. Meanwhile, other assets such as Ministro Hales and Rajo Inca helped offset part of the lost tonnage. Rajo Inca has already added 21,200t this year, with construction 93pc complete.

Codelco’s January-September copper output rose 2.1pc year on year to 937,000t despite the setback. Including stakes in El Abra, Anglo American Sur and Quebrada Blanca, total group production reached 1.016mn t, up 1.4pc. This underscores how Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still stabilising the broader portfolio.

Financial resilience and capex support long-term target

Codelco delivered resilient financials in the first nine months of 2025, helped by firmer copper prices. Pre-tax profit slipped slightly to $606.9mn, just 0.86pc below last year’s level. Ebitda, however, rose 3.4pc year on year to $4.16bn, while contributions to the state treasury climbed 16.5pc to $1.24bn.

The company has executed $3.61bn in capital expenditure to September, within its $4.3bn-5bn annual range. Structural projects aim to stabilise and then lift production over the next decade. Management still targets 1.7mn t of copper output by 2030, anchoring Chile’s role as a core supplier.

Codelco’s trimmed guidance adds another constraint to global copper balances for 2026. Last month, the group lifted its 2026 European copper cathode premium to a record $325/t. That represents almost a 40pc increase from this year, reflecting tighter supply, elevated logistics costs and rising disruption risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s modest guidance cut shows how operational shocks at a single Tier-1 mine can ripple through global copper markets. The record 2026 European premium underlines that smelters and fabricators increasingly pay for reliability, not just metal units. For downstream users in energy transition sectors, hedging both price and physical availability will remain a strategic priority as large brownfield projects navigate safety upgrades and complex ramp-ups.

Codelco El Teniente restart steadies Chile’s copper supply outlook

El Teniente

Codelco El Teniente restart is underway after the 31 July seismic accident. The Codelco El Teniente restart brings back output from safe areas. This Codelco El Teniente restart helps stabilize Chile’s copper supply as operations resume under tighter oversight.

Operations resume across safe sectors

Codelco restarted work on 9–10 August with 70% staffing in unaffected sectors. Authorities cleared Pilar Norte, Panel Esmeralda, Esmeralda, Pacífico Superior, Diablo Regimiento, Panel Reno, Dacita, and Reservas Norte. However, Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante remain suspended for structural checks. The accident caused six fatalities after an earthquake-triggered rockfall in the Andesita area. Codelco concluded search and rescue on 3 August.

Supply implications for the copper market

The phased restart reduces disruption risk to copper concentrate flows. Therefore, Chilean smelters and global buyers gain short-term confidence. El Teniente is the world’s largest underground copper mine by scale. Meanwhile, Codelco’s January–May copper output reached 568,600t, up 8.2% year on year. El Teniente contributed 141,400t, rising 11.9% year on year. These gains could cushion market tightness as 2025–2026 demand grows.

Safety, sequencing, and operational priorities

Codelco is prioritizing safety-led sequencing while restoring mine logistics. As a result, repair timelines in damaged panels will dictate throughput recovery. Contractors will focus on ground support, geotechnical monitoring, and haulage integrity. Buyers should expect stable shipments from cleared sectors, with contingency stocks guiding deliveries. However, any aftershocks or permitting delays could still affect concentrate availability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s staged restart underscores how seismic risk management shapes Latin American copper reliability. Expect buyers to diversify offtake and build safety stocks while Chile’s flagship mine completes structural remediation.

El Teniente Halt Cuts Copper Supply After Seismic Incident

El Teniente

El Teniente halt cuts copper supply after a fatal seismic event in late July. Codelco estimates a refined loss of 20–30kt. The revenue impact may reach $300mn, according to the chairman. Operations partially resumed from 10 August with staged ore movements. However, several sectors remain shut due to structural damage. Therefore, El Teniente halt cuts copper supply and squeezes near-term availability.

Operational Impact and Recovery Timeline

Codelco restarted limited activities after safety checks on 10 August. On 12 August, 59,100t of ore reached the Colón plant. The Sewell plant received 8,300t of ore on the same day. However, four key sectors remain halted. These include Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante. The shutdown follows a rockfall triggered by an earthquake on 31 July. Tragically, six workers lost their lives during the incident. As a result, El Teniente halt cuts copper supply as repairs continue.

Market Implications and Price Risk

The 20–30kt refined shortfall tightens a fragile balance. Inventories may cushion the hit, but only briefly. Physical premiums could firm near smelter hubs. Meanwhile, Chilean shipments may show timing distortions. Traders will watch ore routing and mill throughput closely. Price reaction depends on duration and repair pace. Therefore, contract liftings may face allocation adjustments.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safety-driven ramp discipline will dictate the real supply impact. If sector repairs lag, extended tightening becomes likely despite partial ore movements.

Codelco Lowers 2025 Copper Guidance at El Teniente

Codelco mine

Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente after a fatal seismic incident. The pause removed 33,000t from output and lifted losses to $340mn. Therefore, Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente as damaged sectors remain offline. Guidance updates will follow in the coming days.

Operations are only partly restored while several zones stay halted. Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante face structural damage. Meanwhile, ore movements resumed, with 76,400t sent to Colon and 9,900t to Sewell. As a result, Codelco lowers 2025 copper guidance at El Teniente despite incremental throughput.

Safety, Timeline, and Production Impact

The incident occurred on 31 July after an earthquake triggered a rockfall. Six workers tragically lost their lives in the Andesita region. The mine is the world’s largest underground copper operation. However, full-area inspections continue to constrain mining fronts. Therefore, 2025 guidance must reflect narrower access and slower sequencing.

Market Implications and Near-Term Priorities

Copper supply risk rises as Chile’s flagship asset pares plans. Price effects hinge on the duration of sector closures and mill feed. Codelco prioritizes geotechnical remediation and safe restart protocols. As a result, near-term volumes rely on alternative stopes and stockpiles. Investors should track repair milestones and concentrator stability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This cut reinforces how geotechnical shocks can reshape copper balance sheets fast. Expect tighter Chilean guidance until remediation unlocks high-grade panels. Watch repair cadence, dilution control, and smelter feed quality into 2025.

Chile copper output up 1H 2025 on Codelco, BHP gains

BHP

Chile copper output up 1H 2025 as state and private miners lift production. Chile copper output up 1H 2025 reached 2.65mn t on stronger grades and throughput. As a result, Chile copper output up 1H 2025 underscores the country’s stabilizing mine performance.

Production leaders and laggards

Codelco led growth with a 9.6pc increase to 688,700t in January–June. Chuquicamata, Radomiro Tomic and Ministro Hales rose 12.6pc to 321,400t. El Teniente advanced 15.8pc to 172,000t on steady operations. However, Andina fell 10.6pc and Gaby dropped 24.3pc. These offsets tempered, but did not derail, national gains.

BHP’s Escondida strengthened output by 10.7pc to 680,100t. Higher ore grades supported the improvement despite cost pressures. Meanwhile, Collahuasi declined by a third to 189,500t on lower-grade stock processing. Los Pelambres slid 8pc to 148,700t, and Anglo American Sur fell 15.9pc to 102,300t.

Outlook and market implications

Chile’s first-half total rose 2.6pc to 2.65mn t, signaling gradual recovery. Therefore, supply risks eased even as some assets faced grade challenges. Stronger Codelco and Escondida volumes stabilize concentrate flows and cathode supply. However, weaker Collahuasi and Los Pelambres highlight persistent variability.

Traders should watch grade trends and maintenance schedules through the second half. As a result, TC/RC dynamics and premiums may stay rangebound. Smelters could see steadier feed, while OEMs gain planning visibility. Yet, regional weather, labor, and permitting remain key swing factors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s diversified asset base is cushioning grade headwinds. If Codelco sustains El Teniente and Chuquicamata gains, 2025 guidance looks safer. Watch Collahuasi’s ore blend and Escondida’s grade profile for second-half direction.

Codelco Copper Output Stabilises as Middle East Crisis Raises Cost Risk

Codelco

Codelco copper output stabilised in 2025, but rising energy, diesel, reagent and logistics costs linked to the Middle East crisis could complicate the company’s recovery path. Chile’s state-owned copper producer reported a 0.5% increase in copper output to 1.33mn t, while total attributable production reached 1.44mn t.

The modest improvement showed that Codelco copper output has started to recover after several years of operational pressure. However, the company still faced mixed performance across major divisions, including lower output at El Teniente, Chuquicamata and Gabriela Mistral.

Codelco copper output is expected to rise only slightly in 2026 to 1.331mn–1.357mn t. That guidance highlights the limited pace of supply growth at one of the world’s most important copper producers, even as demand from grids, electrification and industrial investment remains structurally strong.

Fuel and Sulphuric Acid Costs Threaten Copper Margins

The Middle East crisis is creating a new cost risk for copper producers. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists, higher diesel prices, tighter logistics and rising input costs could feed directly into mining cost structures.

Diesel is a key cost driver for haulage, power generation, processing and mine-site operations. Market participants estimate that copper mining costs can rise by 5–10% for every $50/bl increase in oil prices, making fuel volatility a direct margin threat.

Sulphur supply is another concern because it is used to produce sulphuric acid for copper leaching. This risk is especially acute for hydrometallurgical producers in the African Copperbelt, but higher global acid costs could still affect broader copper market sentiment.

Codelco’s own cost base was already rising before the latest geopolitical shock. Direct cash costs increased 4.8% to $2.09/lb in 2025, while total costs rose 14% to $3.73/lb because of higher operating activity, exchange-rate effects and inflation.

Stable Output Masks Deeper Structural Pressure

Codelco described 2025 as a year of stabilisation and productive transition. Ministro Hales lifted output by 25% to 153,000t, while Radomiro Tomic increased production by 9.2% to 295,000t.

However, several core assets remained under pressure. El Teniente output fell 13% to 310,000t, Chuquicamata declined 8% to 265,800t, and Gabriela Mistral dropped 20% to 82,000t.

The company also reported record capital expenditure of $5.07bn in 2025, showing the rising investment required to sustain production. Deeper deposits, lower ore grades and more complex operations are making copper supply more capital-intensive.

This reinforces the longer-term copper supply challenge. Even with stabilising production, Codelco’s guidance points to only incremental growth, while cost inflation could delay marginal projects and pressure higher-cost operations if the conflict continues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s results show that copper supply risk is shifting from simple output loss to cost inflation and capital intensity. The market may still focus on tonnes, but diesel, sulphuric acid and project execution costs will increasingly decide how much copper supply can grow profitably.

Codelco Reports Higher Profits Despite Decline in Copper Production

Chile's state-owned mining giant, Codelco, has announced a notable increase in profits for the first half of 2024, even as its copper production saw a significant decline. This paradoxical outcome underscores the complex dynamics at play within the global copper market.

During the first half of 2024, Codelco's copper production fell to 580,000 fine metric tonnes (tmf), representing an 8.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Including output from its stakes in the El Abra and Anglo American Sur mines, which it owns 49% and 20% respectively, the total production amounted to 628,000 tmf. Copper sales also saw a reduction, dropping by 8% to 791,000 tmf in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year.

Several operational challenges contributed to the decline in production. The Radomiro Tomic mine faced reduced processing capacity due to an accidental death in March, while the El Teniente mine encountered geotechnical constraints. Additionally, the Ministro Hales and El Salvador mines experienced operational delays.

Despite these setbacks, Codelco reported a remarkable profit of $653 million for the first half of 2024. This marks a stark turnaround from the $316 million loss recorded in the same period of 2023. The primary driver of this profit surge was the increased price of copper, which averaged $4.23 per pound during this period, up from $3.90 per pound a year earlier.

Codelco's CEO, Ruben Alvarado, expressed optimism about the future, stating that the company anticipates a gradual increase in production in the latter half of the year. He outlined a strategic goal for Codelco to progressively enhance its production capacity, aiming to reach a level of 1.7 million tonnes by 2030.

Codelco Copper Output Recovers in Q3 2024 After Setbacks

Codelco

Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco has experienced a mixed performance in 2024, with a decline in copper output for the first nine months of the year, but a recovery in the third quarter. The company’s production challenges stemmed from operational setbacks, including a fatal accident and delayed start-ups at key units. Despite these obstacles, Codelco has seen positive financial results, with adjusted earnings showing a significant increase thanks to higher copper prices.

Decline in Year-to-Date Production, but Q3 Shows Growth

For the January-September period, Codelco’s copper production fell by 5% year-on-year, reaching 918,000 tonnes. The company’s CEO, Ruben Alvarado, cited two main factors behind this decline: a fatal accident at the Radomiro Tomic unit in March, which halted operations for more than a month, and a delayed start-up at the Rajo Inca unit.

However, there was a recovery in copper output during the third quarter. Production increased by 1.5% compared to the same period last year, reaching 338,000 tonnes. Despite facing declining ore grades at some of its key deposits, Codelco has managed to stabilize output in the short term.

Strong Earnings Boosted by Higher Copper Prices

On the financial front, Codelco reported a 21% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the first nine months of 2024, totaling $4 billion. This growth was largely driven by higher copper prices, which have provided a much-needed boost amid production challenges.

Looking Ahead: New Projects Set to Boost Output

Looking ahead, Codelco expects its production to increase with the upcoming expansions at its various units. The Andes Norte expansion at the El Teniente unit is slated to begin production in the first quarter of 2025, while the Andesita project is expected to come online in the coming months. The Rajo Inca unit, which has faced delays, is also expected to begin production by the end of 2024.

Copper Rally Near Its Peak: Goldman Sachs Sees Sentiment Outrunning Fundamentals

Goldman Sachs

Copper rally near its peak now reflects stretched positioning more than tightening supply. Copper rally near its peak follows record prices above $11,200/t this week. Copper rally near its peak should fade toward a $10,000–11,000/t range, Goldman Sachs says.

Copper’s latest spike was driven by bullish sentiment and a softer dollar. However, Goldman argues fundamentals do not justify a lasting breakout. The bank highlights a modest surplus in the physical market today. Therefore, it expects consolidation as speculative flows recede. Investors should watch inventories and import premiums closely.

Goldman still sees solid support around $10,000–11,000/t. The range reflects firm demand outside the US and improving China views. However, any surge above that band should be short-lived. Positioning is “stretched” at the five-year 99th percentile on LME. As a result, tactical risk increases for long positions.

Visible inventories have risen by about 700,000t this year. The stock build is led by regions outside the US. Meanwhile, the market sits in a visible surplus near 400,000t year to date. Therefore, price gains lack confirmation from stock draws. History shows rallies fade without inventory tightness.

Mine disruptions amplified the bullish narrative this quarter. Headlines from Grasberg, El Teniente, and Kamoa-Kakula lifted sentiment. However, Goldman estimates net tightening is smaller than headlines suggest. Disrupted capacity near 700,000 t/yr nets to ~200,000t by 2026. Allowances and recoveries offset a large portion of losses.

Chinese demand signals have cooled from mid-year highs. China’s apparent consumption fell 2% year over year in September. Earlier quarters posted stronger gains near 15%. Meanwhile, cathode import premiums moderated to ~$40/t. Premiums remain positive but down from May’s $110/t. Therefore, China’s impulse looks mixed near term.

Speculative behavior mirrors the 2024 pattern. A softer dollar and outages pulled investors back in. Open interest on Comex remains below 2024 peaks. That leaves some room for additional inflows. However, Goldman expects any extra push to be brief. Positioning could unwind as data confirm surplus.

Global refined output has grown by 4% year to date. Output may dip about 2% year over year in the fourth quarter. Weakness in Chile contrasts with growth in the DRC. DRC refined production rose 13% year over year in July. Higher prices also mobilized more global scrap supply. Consequently, refined availability remains resilient.

Goldman raised its 2026 copper forecast to $10,500/t. The revision acknowledges tighter balances than previously expected. However, the bank still sees a modest surplus then. Prices should hover inside $10,000–11,000/t through early 2026. As speculative length fades, momentum should normalize. Therefore, risk-reward now favors patience and discipline.

Macro factors still matter for near-term volatility. A weaker dollar could extend the rally temporarily. Comex-LME arbitrage may pull metal into the US. Additional inflows could lift prices above current highs. However, Goldman expects reversals as positioning normalizes. Without stock declines, new records appear fragile.

Producers should manage hedging with measured triggers. Buyers should ladder coverage while spreads remain favorable. Traders should track China semis shipments and SHFE-LME signals. Meanwhile, watch smelter maintenance and TC/RCs for tightness cues. Ultimately, inventory trends will confirm or deny the squeeze story.

Positioning, Inventories, and Supply: Why the Peak Looks Close

Goldman’s thesis rests on stretched investor positioning today. LME exposure stands near the five-year 99th percentile. Therefore, marginal buyers face crowding risk. Visible inventories continue to climb across key hubs. Stock builds contradict a classic shortage narrative. As a result, upside looks increasingly tactical.

Supply disruptions appear less binding than headlines imply. Net tightening to 2026 balances is near 200,000t. Allowances, ramp-ups, and recoveries offset outages. Refined output growth cushions temporary shortfalls. Scrap flows add elasticity as prices rise. Therefore, sustained deficit claims seem premature.

China’s Demand Pulse and Price Path into 2026

China remains the largest swing factor for copper demand. Recent data show a moderation from mid-year strength. Import premiums eased, signaling reduced physical tightness. Ex-China semis shipments have been flat since March. Therefore, the near-term demand impulse looks softer.

Goldman’s base case anchors prices inside $10,000–11,000/t. Short-term spikes may occur on fresh inflows. However, medium-term prices should revert as length unwinds. Inventories and spreads will guide that reversion timing. Consequently, 2026 averages near $10,500/t look reasonable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Positioning, not panic scarcity, explains the latest leg higher. Unless visible stocks fall decisively, momentum should cool into 2026. We would fade extreme strength and favor range strategies around $10,000–11,000/t.