Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident

Codelco

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident but still signals a gradual production recovery into 2026 and beyond. The Chilean state miner now forecasts 2025 output at 1.31mn-1.34mn t, down from 1.34mn-1.37mn t. However, Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still expecting volumes to exceed 2024 levels and support its 2030 growth plan.

El Teniente setback weighs on short-term copper supply

Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident after a fatal incident on 31 July cut third-quarter production by 22,100t. The mine, which produced 356,000t last year, will need up to three years to regain capacity. As a result, global copper supply for 2025–26 looks tighter than previously expected.

The accident caused six deaths and triggered a deep review of safety and infrastructure at El Teniente. Codelco has started comprehensive safety and monitoring reforms, with a full incident report due by late 2025. Meanwhile, other assets such as Ministro Hales and Rajo Inca helped offset part of the lost tonnage. Rajo Inca has already added 21,200t this year, with construction 93pc complete.

Codelco’s January-September copper output rose 2.1pc year on year to 937,000t despite the setback. Including stakes in El Abra, Anglo American Sur and Quebrada Blanca, total group production reached 1.016mn t, up 1.4pc. This underscores how Codelco trims copper guidance on El Teniente accident while still stabilising the broader portfolio.

Financial resilience and capex support long-term target

Codelco delivered resilient financials in the first nine months of 2025, helped by firmer copper prices. Pre-tax profit slipped slightly to $606.9mn, just 0.86pc below last year’s level. Ebitda, however, rose 3.4pc year on year to $4.16bn, while contributions to the state treasury climbed 16.5pc to $1.24bn.

The company has executed $3.61bn in capital expenditure to September, within its $4.3bn-5bn annual range. Structural projects aim to stabilise and then lift production over the next decade. Management still targets 1.7mn t of copper output by 2030, anchoring Chile’s role as a core supplier.

Codelco’s trimmed guidance adds another constraint to global copper balances for 2026. Last month, the group lifted its 2026 European copper cathode premium to a record $325/t. That represents almost a 40pc increase from this year, reflecting tighter supply, elevated logistics costs and rising disruption risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s modest guidance cut shows how operational shocks at a single Tier-1 mine can ripple through global copper markets. The record 2026 European premium underlines that smelters and fabricators increasingly pay for reliability, not just metal units. For downstream users in energy transition sectors, hedging both price and physical availability will remain a strategic priority as large brownfield projects navigate safety upgrades and complex ramp-ups.