China Strategic Minerals Framework Tightens State Control Over 36 Resources

Strategic Minerals

China strategic minerals policy has entered a more formal phase after Beijing placed 36 mineral resources under tighter central government control. The revised regulations strengthen state oversight of mining, exploration, production quotas and strategic reserves.

China strategic minerals covered by the framework include major industrial metals, battery materials, rare earths, semiconductor metals and energy resources. The rules also include non-metallic materials such as graphite, phosphate, fluorite and high-purity quartz.

China strategic minerals regulation is significant because many of the affected materials are essential to batteries, aerospace, defence, semiconductors, energy infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

The immediate market impact has been limited because several controls already existed in practice. However, formalising them under a single legal framework could strengthen Beijing's ability to manage supply over the longer term.

Centralised Quotas and Reserves Strengthen Supply Management

The Ministry of Natural Resources, working with the National Development and Reform Commission, will set annual mining quotas for strategic minerals.

The objective is to prevent uncontrolled production while giving central authorities greater control over national resource development.

Approvals for new exploration and mining rights will also be consolidated at the central level. Authorities will restrict the number of mining licences granted for individual deposits.

This could slow uncontrolled capacity growth in some markets while giving Beijing more influence over production timing and regional development.

The new framework also establishes a three-tier reserve system covering physical product inventories, production capacity and undeveloped resource sites.

State and private companies will jointly participate in stockpiling, while resource-site reserves are expected to remain available for at least five years.

This creates a broader security mechanism than conventional commodity stockpiles. China will not only hold material inventories but also preserve future production capability and undeveloped resources.

For strategically sensitive metals, this could provide Beijing with greater flexibility to respond to supply disruptions, price volatility or geopolitical pressure.

Rare Earths and Semiconductor Metals Gain Greater Strategic Weight

The list covers 25 metallic commodities, including iron, copper, aluminium, titanium, vanadium, manganese and chromium.

Battery materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are included alongside all 17 rare earth elements.

China has also designated tungsten, antimony, tin and molybdenum as strategic resources, together with semiconductor and specialty metals including gallium, germanium, indium, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, beryllium, zirconium and hafnium.

This combination is important because China already holds dominant positions across many of these supply chains.

Rare earth separation, tungsten processing, antimony, gallium and germanium are particularly sensitive because alternative global processing capacity remains limited.

The inclusion of high-purity quartz also highlights the expanding definition of strategic materials. Quartz is an important input in semiconductor and solar manufacturing, linking mineral security directly with advanced technology industries.

The framework therefore goes beyond mining policy. It strengthens China's ability to manage the upstream materials required for manufacturing competitiveness and national security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is moving from individual export controls and quotas toward a comprehensive strategic resources system. The long-term implication is greater state influence over not only current supply, but also future capacity and undeveloped reserves across many of the world's most critical materials.

Alabama Scrap Shredder to Strengthen Outokumpu’s Stainless Recycling Loop

Jefferson Iron & Metal

Alabama scrap shredder investment by Jefferson Iron and Metal Brokerage will create a dedicated scrap processing route inside Outokumpu’s stainless steel mill in Calvert. The $22mn project will support a tighter closed-loop scrap supply system for the Alabama stainless operation.

Alabama scrap shredder capacity is planned at about 9,000 short tons per month. The shredder will process scrap generated at Outokumpu’s mill near Mobile, Alabama, and return the shredded material directly into the plant’s operations.

Alabama scrap shredder development is strategically important because stainless steel mills depend on clean, consistent and efficiently prepared scrap. Better on-site processing can reduce handling costs, improve material control and support higher recycled-content production.

Jefferson Shredding and Recycling, a subsidiary of Alabama-based Jefferson Iron and Metal Brokerage, plans to break ground next month. Operations are expected to begin in August 2027.

On-Site Shredding Improves Scrap Control

The project gives Outokumpu a more direct route for recovering and reusing internal stainless scrap. Instead of moving material through a longer external supply chain, the mill can keep more scrap within its own operating loop.

This matters because stainless scrap contains valuable alloying elements such as chromium, nickel and molybdenum. Preserving those units inside the mill system can improve raw material efficiency and reduce exposure to external alloy and scrap markets.

On-site shredding also supports better quality control. Stainless mills need scrap that is properly sized, separated and prepared for melting. Poorly controlled scrap can create chemistry risk, yield loss and operating inefficiency.

The Jefferson-Outokumpu structure is practical. Jefferson brings scrap processing expertise, while Outokumpu gains a dedicated recycling asset linked directly to its stainless production base.

Closed-Loop Recycling Supports US Stainless Competitiveness

The Calvert mill is one of the most important stainless steel assets in the US. Adding dedicated scrap processing strengthens its ability to compete in a market where recycled content, cost control and supply security are increasingly important.

Stainless steel recycling is already a major advantage for the sector. But the value rises when mills can shorten the route between scrap generation, preparation and remelting.

The project also fits wider trends in US metals manufacturing. Producers are trying to localise feedstock, reduce waste, lower logistics exposure and improve traceability.

For Jefferson, the investment expands its role from scrap broker and recycler into an embedded processing partner for a major stainless producer. For Outokumpu, the shredder improves scrap circularity and gives the mill more control over internal material flows.

The 2027 start-up timeline means the project will not affect near-term stainless supply. But once operational, it should strengthen the Calvert site’s raw material flexibility and recycling efficiency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Jefferson-Outokumpu project shows that recycling advantage is increasingly built inside the mill gate. In stainless steel, controlling scrap chemistry, size and flow can be as important as securing primary alloy inputs.

Nickel Ore Prices Fall as Philippine Supply Recovery Eases Feedstock Tightness

Philippine Nickel ore

Nickel ore prices have fallen as Philippine supply recovered after the monsoon season, while a correction in London Metal Exchange nickel weakened sentiment across the value chain. The decline shows how quickly seasonal ore flows can pressure feedstock markets when Indonesian buyers slow procurement.

Nickel ore prices for 1.3% grade material on a cif China basis dropped to 55-57 yuan/wmt on 14 May from 65-66 yuan/wmt on 26 March. The fall came even though LME nickel remained above late-March levels after briefly touching almost two-year highs earlier in May.

Nickel ore prices are important because ore often gives the earliest physical signal in the nickel chain. Unlike LME nickel, ore prices are less driven by financial flows and more directly tied to mine supply, port congestion, smelter demand and buyer inventories.

The current weakness reflects three forces moving together: Philippine mine supply is recovering, Indonesia is slowing purchases, and LME nickel has corrected after earlier policy-driven gains.

Philippine Supply Recovery Changes the Regional Ore Balance

The Philippines is entering its seasonal production recovery after monsoon-related disruptions. Mining activity in Surigao, the country’s main nickel ore hub, usually slows from November to March and rebounds from May.

Surigao accounts for around half of Philippine nickel ore output. As shipments recover, buyers have more nearby feedstock options, reducing the urgency that supported prices earlier in the year.

This seasonal pattern has become more important since Indonesia emerged as a major Philippine ore importer. Historically, Chinese buyers stocked up ahead of the rainy season and drew down inventories until supply returned. But Indonesia’s rising demand has added a second major pull on Philippine material.

The Philippines exported 55.22mn t of nickel ore in 2025. China took 72% of that volume, while Indonesia accounted for 18%.

Indonesia’s imports from the Philippines rose to 15.48mn t in 2025 from 9.55mn t in 2024. That growth was driven by tight domestic ore controls under Indonesia’s RKAB quota system.

Indonesia imported 1.41mn t of Philippine nickel ore in March, up sharply from both a year earlier and the previous month. But that buying momentum has now slowed as port bottlenecks and price uncertainty weigh on procurement.

Indonesia Bottlenecks and NPI Margins Pressure Demand

Most Philippine ore shipped to Indonesia moves to the Weda Bay industrial park. The site produced around one third of Indonesia’s total nickel supply in 2025, making it a major feedstock demand centre.

But Weda Bay has limited unloading capacity. Only two major berths handle nickel ore discharge, creating recurring congestion.

Some vessels that would normally unload within two days are waiting up to two weeks. That congestion reduces buyers’ willingness to secure additional cargoes, especially when prices are falling.

Indonesia’s revised ore pricing formula has also changed buyer behaviour. The new formula includes cobalt, iron and chromium values, raising raw material costs and adding uncertainty to procurement decisions.

Meanwhile, LME nickel’s pullback has started to pressure nickel pig iron prices. NPI prices had been relatively steady, supported by stainless steel demand, but softer benchmark prices are now weakening producer margins.

Lower margins can reduce production incentives for Chinese NPI producers. That, in turn, may reduce demand for nickel ore and extend downward pressure on feedstock prices.

Nickel sulphate prices have remained stable because tight supply has offset weak demand from the nickel-cobalt-manganese battery sector. But the ore market is moving faster because supply is returning and buyers are stepping back.

The short-term outlook remains soft. Rising Philippine availability, weaker LME sentiment and slower Indonesian buying are likely to keep nickel ore under pressure until the market finds a new floor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel ore prices are showing that Indonesia’s downstream expansion has made Philippine supply more strategically important. But when port bottlenecks, weaker NPI margins and seasonal supply recovery hit together, even tight Indonesian ore controls cannot prevent a feedstock correction.

Aperam Recycling North America Names Evan Dyal as New Chief Executive

Aperam Recycling

Aperam Recycling North America will move into new leadership on 1 July as Evan Dyal succeeds Chris Niles as chief executive of the company’s regional operations. The appointment places a long-serving ELG Metals USA executive at the head of Aperam’s North American recycling platform.

Aperam Recycling North America is strategically important because stainless steel producers increasingly rely on high-quality scrap flows to manage costs, improve circularity and support lower-carbon production. Leadership continuity matters in a market where scrap sourcing, customer relationships and alloy knowledge are critical.

Dyal is currently general manager of Aperam Recycling’s Mobile, Alabama, location. He has spent more than 18 years with Aperam subsidiary ELG Metals USA, giving him deep operational experience in specialty metals recycling.

Chris Niles will leave the company after 25 years. His departure marks a leadership transition for a business tied closely to stainless steel, nickel-bearing scrap and specialty alloy supply chains.

Leadership Continuity Supports Stainless Scrap Strategy

Aperam’s choice of Dyal signals a preference for internal continuity. Recycling operations depend heavily on supplier networks, material knowledge and disciplined quality control.

This is especially important in stainless steel recycling. Scrap streams can contain nickel, chromium, molybdenum and other valuable alloying elements, making accurate sorting and processing essential.

North American stainless scrap supply remains strategically valuable as mills seek more recycled units and lower-carbon feedstock. Processors that can secure clean, reliable and specification-ready scrap will remain important to stainless producers.

Dyal’s Mobile experience gives him direct exposure to yard operations, logistics, supplier management and customer requirements. That operational background should support Aperam Recycling North America as competition for quality scrap intensifies.

Commercial Role Strengthens Regional Customer Focus

Aperam also promoted Andres Montes to chief commercial officer of North America. Montes currently leads specialty sales for the region.

The appointment adds commercial focus alongside the leadership change. Specialty sales are important because stainless and alloy scrap markets require close coordination between processors, mills, traders and industrial customers.

This matters as recycling becomes more central to metals procurement. Buyers increasingly want traceable scrap supply, reliable chemistry and stable delivery into melt shops.

For Aperam, strengthening North American leadership and commercial coverage supports its broader circular metals strategy. The company’s recycling platform can help secure feedstock, improve value capture and support lower-emission stainless production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s leadership change is small in size but meaningful in direction. Stainless steel recycling is becoming more strategic, and experienced operators with alloy scrap knowledge will matter more as mills compete for cleaner recycled feedstock.

Outokumpu Stainless Steel Deliveries Rise as EU CBAM Supports Local Demand

Outokumpu

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries rose sharply from the previous quarter after the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism began applying to imports at the start of the year. The Finnish stainless steel producer shipped 465,000t in January-March, up 27% from the previous quarter.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries were still down 1% from a year earlier, showing that the recovery remains uneven. But the quarterly increase suggests CBAM is starting to shift some demand toward local European production.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries are expected to rise by up to 10% in the second quarter. The company is benefiting from European buyers reassessing imports as carbon-related costs begin to affect non-EU supply.

The result highlights the industrial importance of scrap-based stainless steel production. CBAM could improve the competitiveness of lower-carbon European producers if importers face higher carbon costs.

CBAM Gives European Stainless Producers a Demand Tailwind

CBAM imposes a carbon levy on imports from outside the EU. This changes the cost comparison between imported stainless steel and local European material.

For Outokumpu, the mechanism supports demand for European scrap-based stainless production. Scrap-based production generally carries a lower carbon footprint than more emissions-intensive routes.

European stainless shipments reached 324,000t in the first quarter, up 2% from a year earlier. This suggests regional demand held up better than some other markets.

Shipments to the Americas fell by 5% to 148,000t. However, the Americas business still delivered much stronger earnings because of higher average selling prices.

The commercial message is clear. Volume growth is beginning to appear in Europe, but pricing power remains stronger in the Americas.

Ferro-Chrome Volumes Rise but European Margins Weaken

Outokumpu’s ferro-chrome shipments rose by 15.8% year on year to 110,000t. Strong demand in Europe and the US supported the increase.

Ferro-chrome remains essential for stainless steel production because chromium provides corrosion resistance. Higher ferro-chrome shipments therefore show stronger activity across stainless and alloy supply chains.

Group adjusted Ebitda rose by 33% on the year to €65mn. The improvement was driven mainly by the Americas business, where Ebitda climbed to €52mn from €11mn.

But the earnings mix was uneven. Ferro-chrome Ebitda fell by nearly 30% to €30mn, while the European stainless segment posted negative Ebitda of €13mn, down from positive €5mn a year earlier.

Outokumpu attributed weaker European profitability to lower average selling prices and lower fixed-cost absorption. This shows that CBAM may support volumes before it fully restores margins.

The first-quarter result therefore sends a mixed signal. European demand is improving, but pricing and cost absorption still need to recover for the regional stainless business to regain strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s quarter shows that CBAM is beginning to change stainless steel trade behaviour. But the policy’s real test is whether it can improve European producer margins, not only redirect demand toward local supply.

 

Indonesia Nickel Royalty Changes Delayed as Jakarta Balances State Revenue and Producer Costs

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel royalty changes have been delayed as the government reviews planned royalty increases and export taxes for nickel products. Jakarta is trying to balance higher state revenue with the cost pressure already facing miners, smelters and battery-material producers.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes were initially expected to take effect in June. But the energy and mineral resources ministry will now reassess the policy after industry consultations.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes are part of a wider policy reset covering nickel, copper, tin, gold, silver and other minerals. The government wants a formula that captures more value for the state without damaging investment in downstream processing.

The delay also applies to planned export duties on nickel products. Indonesia will continue finalising the pricing mechanism for the duty, but implementation has been pushed back.

Downstreaming Policy Meets Rising Cost Pressure

Indonesia’s nickel export duty plan is tied to its downstreaming strategy. The policy aims to push mining and metals companies to build more domestic value-added capacity instead of exporting lower-value materials.

The country has already become the world’s most important nickel processing hub. However, officials say the sector has developed only about 40% of its potential, leaving room for more investment in battery materials, stainless steel and other downstream products.

The royalty delay shows that Indonesia understands the risk of overloading producers with too many cost increases at once. Miners and processors are already dealing with tighter RKAB quotas, higher ore costs and rising input risks.

Indonesia updated its nickel ore pricing formula on 15 April. The new mechanism includes cobalt, iron and chromium in ore valuation, increasing raw material costs for downstream users.

This change is especially important for high-pressure acid leach projects, which consume limonite ore and produce mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery supply chains. Higher ore prices can raise costs for nickel intermediates and reduce margins.

Sulphur supply risk is another pressure point. Middle East disruption has raised concerns over sulphur availability, a key input for nickel processing. This has supported nickel prices but also increased uncertainty for producers.

Nickel Prices Supported by Policy and Supply Risk

Indonesia’s recent policy shifts have generally supported nickel prices. LME nickel rose to around $19,450/t on 6 May from $18,075/t on 15 April, supported by the revised ore pricing formula, sulphur supply concerns and lower 2026 RKAB quota expectations.

The delayed royalty and export tax changes may ease immediate producer pressure. But they do not reverse the broader direction of Indonesian policy.

Jakarta still wants to capture more value from its mineral resources. It also wants companies to keep investing in domestic processing and a more complete nickel supply chain.

For the nickel market, this creates a more policy-sensitive pricing environment. Ore quotas, benchmark formulas, export taxes, royalties and downstream investment rules can all influence costs and trade flows.

The delay gives producers time, but not certainty. Companies will still need to plan for higher government take, stricter ore valuation and stronger pressure to invest in domestic value-added products.

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is therefore entering a more complex phase. The country wants to remain the dominant global nickel hub, but it must avoid weakening the economics that attracted downstream investment in the first place.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s delay is not a retreat from resource nationalism; it is a recalibration. Jakarta wants more value from nickel, but it also knows that excessive cost pressure could slow the downstreaming model that made Indonesia central to global battery and stainless steel supply.

CFC Recycling Tennessee Expansion Adds Gallatin Scrapyard and Nonferrous Feedstock

CFC Recycling

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion has advanced with the acquisition of Goolsby & Sons Recycling, giving the company a third scrapyard in the state. The deal strengthens CFC’s regional collection network and adds a new feedstock source for its nonferrous shredder.

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion now links the company’s existing scrapyards in Tullahoma and McMinnville with a new site in Gallatin. The acquired location will be temporarily closed for upgrades before reopening in June.

CFC Recycling Tennessee expansion is significant because scrap processors are increasingly competing for reliable regional feedstock. Control over collection points, yard infrastructure and processing routes can determine margins in both ferrous and nonferrous recycling.

Financial details of the acquisition were not disclosed. CFC plans a soft opening on 18 May before fully reopening the Gallatin location in June.

Gallatin Yard Strengthens Regional Scrap Collection

The Goolsby & Sons site gives CFC another physical intake point for scrap in Tennessee. That matters because scrapyard density improves access to local industrial, demolition, commercial and consumer scrap flows.

CFC plans to renovate buildings and equipment at the Gallatin site. It also plans to concrete surfaces, improving yard handling, environmental control and operating efficiency.

These upgrades are practical but important. Better surfaces can reduce contamination, improve traffic flow, support cleaner material handling and help meet customer and regulatory expectations.

The acquisition also gives CFC a stronger footprint in a state with active manufacturing, construction and industrial activity. Regional scrap generation can support steady flows of steel, stainless steel, aluminium and other nonferrous materials.

For smaller recycling networks, yard expansion can create scale advantages. More sites improve sourcing reach, while centralised processing can lift equipment utilisation.

Nonferrous Shredder Feedstock Becomes Strategic

The deal adds a new feedstock source for CFC’s nonferrous shredder. The company operates a 3Tek Bravo 6280 hammer mill shredder used to process stainless steel and aluminium specialty items.

That detail is commercially important. Nonferrous scrap processing can carry higher value than ordinary ferrous scrap when material is sorted, upgraded and delivered into qualified downstream channels.

Aluminium specialty scrap is especially relevant because secondary aluminium demand is growing across automotive, packaging, construction and industrial markets. Processors with better collection and shredding capacity can capture more value from complex scrap streams.

Stainless steel scrap also remains valuable because of its nickel, chromium and molybdenum content. Efficient shredding and separation can improve recoveries and support alloy producers seeking recycled feedstock.

CFC’s acquisition therefore fits a wider industry trend. Scrap companies are not only buying yards for volume. They are building feedstock networks around specific processing equipment and higher-value material streams.

The Gallatin site should help CFC improve sourcing flexibility. Once renovated, it can support local intake while feeding the company’s broader processing platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CFC’s acquisition shows that regional scrap control is becoming more strategic as recyclers chase cleaner and higher-value feedstock. The real value of the Gallatin yard will depend on how effectively CFC channels material into its stainless and aluminium specialty shredding operations.

AMG Chrome Metal Plant Strengthens US Aerospace Alloy Supply

AMG Critical Materials

AMG chrome metal plant start-up in Pennsylvania will add new US production capacity for a specialty metal used in aerospace, defence and energy applications. AMG Critical Materials plans to open the 6,500 t/yr aluminothermic chrome metal facility in New Castle on 17 June.

The AMG chrome metal plant is strategically important because the US remains heavily dependent on imported unwrought chromium and chromium powders. In 2025, the US imported 11,153t of these products, with the UK supplying 51% and China supplying 34.9%.

The AMG chrome metal plant will sit next to AMG’s existing titanium facility, which produces titanium master alloys and other specialty alloys for aerospace, defence and energy markets. That location creates a stronger domestic cluster for high-performance alloy inputs.

Chrome metal is used in superalloys because it improves corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance. These properties are essential for aircraft engines, defence systems, industrial turbines and other demanding applications.

New Castle Facility Adds Domestic Chrome Capacity

AMG’s new Pennsylvania facility will use aluminothermic production to make chrome metal. The process is important for producing material suitable for high-performance alloy markets.

AMG already has established chrome expertise through AMG Chrome, its UK-based subsidiary. The Rotherham site produces chrome metal, high-purity degassed chrome metals and chrome powders.

The New Castle plant extends that capability into the US market. This gives American aerospace and defence customers another domestic source of chrome metal at a time when supply-chain security has become a higher priority.

The facility’s proximity to AMG’s titanium operation also matters. Titanium master alloys, chrome metal and specialty alloy inputs often serve overlapping customers in aerospace, defence and energy.

That creates potential operational and commercial advantages. AMG can support customers that need multiple alloying materials with stronger domestic logistics, qualification support and supply visibility.

Tariffs and Russian Supply Loss Reshape Chromium Trade

The US chrome market has been reshaped by sanctions, tariffs and trade disruption. Russian supplies became less available after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, forcing buyers to rely more heavily on other sources.

China became a more important supplier as Russian material disappeared from western trade flows. However, the US imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese-origin chrome metal in September 2024.

That tariff increased the cost and complexity of Chinese supply. It also strengthened the case for domestic production capacity, especially for aerospace and defence applications where supply continuity matters.

Europe’s own supply behaviour has also changed. The loss of Russian supplies pushed French producers to keep more material within Europe rather than ship volumes to the US.

This leaves the US exposed to a narrow set of import routes. AMG’s Pennsylvania plant helps reduce that vulnerability by adding domestic chrome metal capacity linked to an established specialty materials producer.

For aerospace superalloy supply chains, this is more than a metal availability issue. Engine and defence programmes require qualified, traceable and reliable materials. Domestic production can reduce risk around tariffs, sanctions, shipping and geopolitical disruption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG’s New Castle plant shows that specialty alloy security is moving beyond titanium and nickel into smaller but critical inputs such as chrome metal. The US cannot build resilient aerospace and defence supply chains without domestic capacity for the alloying elements that make superalloys perform.

Nickel Deficit Forecast Emerges as Indonesia Tightens Ore Supply

Nickel manufacturing

Nickel deficit conditions are expected to return in 2026 as Indonesia tightens ore supply controls and stainless steel demand continues to grow. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts global primary nickel production of 3.715mn t against usage of 3.747mn t, implying a deficit of 32,000t.

The nickel deficit would mark a sharp change after three consecutive years of surplus. The market recorded surpluses of 175,000t in 2023, 116,000t in 2024 and 283,000t in 2025.

The nickel deficit forecast remains modest, but it carries strategic significance because it depends heavily on Indonesian policy. Indonesia has been the main driver of global nickel supply growth, and tighter controls on ore mining could slow the expansion that previously pushed the market into surplus.

The Middle East conflict is adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy prices, inflation pressure and disrupted sulphur flows could affect nickel production costs, especially for high-pressure acid leach operations in Indonesia.

Indonesia Ore Controls Reshape Nickel Supply Growth

Indonesia’s approved nickel ore mining quota for 2026 has been set significantly lower than in 2025. The quota can still be revised, but the initial reduction has already changed market expectations.

The country’s revised mineral benchmark pricing mechanism also took effect on 15 April. The new HPM formula raises base prices for all nickel ore grades and includes cobalt, iron and chromium in the valuation for the first time.

This matters because Indonesian nickel supply is no longer expanding under the same low-cost conditions that drove rapid output growth. Ore access, ore pricing, royalties and contained metal values are all becoming more tightly managed.

The policy impact is not evenly distributed. Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel mine is preparing to enter care and maintenance in May after receiving an initial ore quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. This is far below last year’s final permit of up to 42mn wmt.

In contrast, Nickel Industries received quota approvals of 14.3mn wmt, up from 10.5mn wmt in 2025. This shows that Indonesia’s controls are not simply cutting all supply. They are also reshaping which operators receive ore access.

The quota system could therefore become a major competitive factor. Producers with larger approved volumes may gain stronger operating flexibility, while others face lower utilisation, higher costs or temporary shutdowns.

HPAL producers are especially exposed. These plants require steady limonite ore supply and large volumes of sulphuric acid or sulphur-linked feedstock. Tighter ore availability and higher reagent costs can quickly pressure margins.

Disrupted sulphur flows from the Middle East conflict have raised concern over HPAL feedstock availability. This is important because Indonesian HPAL projects have become key suppliers of mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material production.

If sulphur costs remain elevated and ore prices rise under the new HPM formula, HPAL production costs could increase materially. That would weaken the low-cost supply advantage that helped Indonesia dominate battery-linked nickel intermediates.

Stainless Steel Supports Demand as Batteries Disappoint

Stainless steel remains the main support for nickel demand. INSG said the stainless steel sector grew in 2025 and is expected to expand further in 2026.

This is important because stainless steel still consumes far more nickel than the battery sector. Demand from stainless steel, alloys and industrial uses continues to anchor the primary nickel market.

Battery demand has grown more slowly than earlier expectations. Lithium iron phosphate chemistries have gained market share, reducing nickel intensity in parts of the electric vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle demand has also outpaced fully battery-electric vehicle demand in some markets. This has limited the speed at which nickel-rich battery chemistries absorb new supply.

The result is a market caught between two forces. Supply growth is slowing because of Indonesian ore controls and higher input costs. However, battery demand is not rising fast enough to create a large structural shortage.

This makes the 2026 nickel deficit highly sensitive to policy and disruption. If Indonesia raises quotas, supply could recover. If sulphur, energy or ore costs worsen, the deficit could deepen.

The forecast also changes the market narrative. Nickel has spent recent years under pressure from surplus supply and rising inventories. A move into deficit, even a small one, could stabilise sentiment and support prices.

Still, the deficit is not yet a sign of broad scarcity. It is a warning that Indonesia’s supply discipline, not battery demand alone, is now determining the market balance.

For producers, cost control and ore access will become more important. For buyers, the focus will shift toward supplier reliability, feedstock route and exposure to Indonesian policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The nickel market is not tightening because batteries suddenly absorbed the surplus. It is tightening because Indonesia is putting discipline into ore supply while HPAL costs rise. That makes the nickel deficit more policy-driven than demand-driven.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill Restart Targets Domestic Tinplate Supply Security

US Steel

US Steel Gary Tin Mill production is set to restart in early 2027 as the integrated steel producer moves to rebuild domestic tin coated steel supply. The idled facility is part of US Steel’s wider Gary Works complex in Indiana.

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill has roughly 500,000 short tons of idled capacity across two production lines. The mill has been offline since 2022, but the company now plans to bring it back after maintenance, equipment inspection, material procurement and workforce preparation.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart costs are estimated at $15mn-20mn. The investment is relatively modest compared with a greenfield project, but the industrial significance is larger because tin coated steel has become a more sensitive domestic supply issue.

The restart comes as US customers seek more dependable local supply for packaging and industrial applications. It also reflects a wider shift toward trade protection, domestic manufacturing resilience and reduced exposure to imported coated steel products.

Trade Cases Support Domestic Tin Coated Steel Production

US Steel framed the restart as a response to domestic tin demand in a more protectionist trade environment. The company said customers are increasingly focused on long-term domestic supply security.

On 9 April, US Steel and the United Steelworkers union filed an antidumping duty case against China, Taiwan and Turkey. The case covers imports of tin and chromium coated sheet steel.

A separate countervailing duty case was also filed against subsidised tin coated steel products from China. These trade actions could support domestic producers if authorities determine that imports are unfairly priced or subsidised.

The timing is important. Restarting the Gary Tin Mill would give US Steel more capacity to serve customers if duties raise import costs or reduce import availability.

Tin coated steel is used in food and beverage packaging, aerosol products and oil filtration goods. These are not speculative markets. They are established industrial and consumer supply chains where reliability, quality and delivery timing matter.

The restart also gives US Steel a stronger position in value-added flat steel. Tinplate and coated sheet require specific finishing capability and customer qualification, making them more specialised than commodity hot-rolled or cold-rolled products.

Packaging and Industrial Buyers Seek Reliable Local Supply

The Gary Tin Mill restart reflects the growing importance of domestic supply in packaging materials. Food and beverage packaging depends on consistent access to tin coated steel, especially for cans and other shelf-stable products.

Aerosol products and oil filtration goods also rely on coated steel for corrosion resistance, formability and product protection. These applications require stable quality and predictable supply from qualified mills.

Domestic buyers have become more sensitive to import risk. Tariffs, antidumping cases, logistics disruption and geopolitical uncertainty can all affect material availability and pricing.

US Steel’s restart could help reduce that risk by returning idled capacity to the market. However, the impact will depend on how smoothly the company completes maintenance and prepares the required workforce.

The early 2027 timeline also matters. Buyers facing uncertainty in 2026 will not see immediate supply relief, but the restart could improve medium-term market confidence.

For the US steel industry, the project shows how idled finishing capacity can regain strategic value under trade protection. Instead of building new capacity from scratch, companies can reactivate existing assets when market conditions and policy support improve.

The broader message is clear. Domestic steel supply security is expanding beyond primary steelmaking. Coated, finished and application-specific steel products are also becoming part of the industrial resilience debate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart shows how trade protection can revive idled downstream steel capacity. The key question is whether domestic buyers will commit enough demand to support the restart beyond the current tariff and trade-case cycle.

Indonesia HPAL Nickel Ore Costs Rise as New HPM Formula Hits Limonite Feedstock

Nickel ore

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are set to rise sharply after the government’s revised mineral benchmark price lifted the mandated price floor for limonite ore. The new HPM formula is expected to increase limonite ore costs by at least 50%, adding immediate margin pressure to mixed hydroxide precipitate producers.

The revised HPM for limonite ore containing 1.2% nickel, 0.1% cobalt and 2% chromium is calculated at $45.24/wmt under the updated Harga Mineral Acuan. That is around 50% higher than early April transacted prices of about $30/wmt for 1.2% limonite ore.

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are also far above the previous benchmark level. Under the old formula, the HPM for similar ore was only $17.17/wmt, meaning the new benchmark is nearly three times higher.

The change matters because HPAL operations rely on limonite ore as feedstock to produce MHP, which is used in battery-grade nickel and cobalt supply chains. A higher government-mandated ore floor will raise raw material costs, increase royalty payments and pressure margins across Indonesia’s battery nickel industry.

Limonite Ore Repricing Raises MHP Cost Pressure

The new HPM framework has the strongest impact on limonite ore because this material typically trades closer to benchmark values than saprolite ore. HPAL producers therefore face a more direct cost increase than rotary kiln-electric furnace operators.

MHP producers will now have to absorb higher ore purchase costs and higher royalties. Since royalties are linked to official valuation, the total cost increase could exceed the headline 50% rise in limonite ore pricing.

The revised formula also changes how Indonesia captures ore value. It includes cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore valuation, making these contained elements taxable. This is especially important for limonite ore because cobalt content adds value to HPAL feedstock.

The correction factor for cobalt is set at 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. Iron carries a 30% correction factor when content is 35% or lower, while chromium carries a 10% correction factor.

This means Indonesia is no longer valuing nickel ore mainly by nickel grade. The government is moving toward a broader contained-metal pricing model, capturing more value from battery-related by-products and ore chemistry.

For MHP producers, this creates a structural cost problem. HPAL projects were built around access to Indonesian limonite ore, sulphuric acid and integrated processing infrastructure. If ore costs rise by more than a third to half, the cost floor for MHP production moves higher.

This could affect downstream nickel sulphate and cathode material economics. Producers with stronger integration, lower acid costs and better logistics will be better positioned. Higher-cost operators may face squeezed margins if MHP prices do not rise enough to offset the new ore benchmark.

The change also comes as Indonesia tightens wider nickel policy. Mining quota uncertainty, export tax discussions and stricter pricing formulas all point to a broader state strategy of capturing more mineral value before material moves downstream.

Sulphuric Acid Tightness Adds a Second Cost Shock

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are rising at the same time as sulphuric acid prices surge. This creates a double pressure point for MHP producers.

HPAL operations require large volumes of sulphuric acid to leach nickel and cobalt from limonite ore. Any disruption in sulphur or acid supply directly affects processing costs and production reliability.

The US-Iran conflict has stranded several sulphur cargoes bound for Indonesian HPAL producers, preventing them from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, producers have shifted toward buying sulphuric acid directly.

That market was already tight because of limited copper concentrate availability. Sulphuric acid supply is expected to tighten further as China suspends exports from May.

Southeast Asian sulphuric acid prices have risen sharply. Prices reached $277.50/t cfr on 9 April, up 71% from $162.50/t before the conflict.

This is a major issue for Indonesian HPAL plants. Higher limonite ore costs increase feedstock expenses, while higher sulphuric acid prices increase processing costs. Together, they raise the full cost of producing MHP and weaken the advantage of low-cost Indonesian battery nickel.

Saprolite ore faces less immediate disruption. Saprolite is mainly used in RKEF operations to produce nickel pig iron and ferronickel. Although the new HPM for typical saprolite ore containing 1.6% nickel, 18% iron and 2% chromium rises to $52.90/wmt from $29.94/wmt, it remains below early April transacted prices of about $70/wmt.

This means RKEF producers may see limited immediate transaction impact because market prices are already above the benchmark. HPAL producers, by contrast, face a direct reset of the cost floor.

The difference could reshape relative economics between Indonesia’s stainless-linked and battery-linked nickel chains. NPI producers remain supported by high saprolite prices, while HPAL producers now face rising limonite, royalty and acid costs.

For the global battery supply chain, the key risk is that Indonesia’s MHP cost curve shifts upward. That could support nickel sulphate prices over time, especially if acid tightness persists or HPM-linked royalty costs remain elevated.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource rent capture. The government is recognising that limonite ore contains not only nickel but also cobalt and other valuable elements. This gives Jakarta a stronger fiscal claim over battery material feedstock.

However, the policy also increases operating uncertainty. HPAL investors need predictable ore pricing, acid availability and tax treatment to justify large-scale expansion. A sharp change in HPM could force producers to revisit cost assumptions, procurement strategies and product pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s new HPM formula marks a turning point for HPAL economics. The country is capturing more value from limonite ore, but the combined shock of higher ore prices, royalties and sulphuric acid costs could reset the cost floor for global MHP supply.

Indonesia HPM Formula Raises Nickel Ore Cost Risk for HPAL Producers

ESDM

Indonesia HPM formula changes will reshape nickel ore pricing from 15 April, adding new cost pressure across the country’s nickel processing chain. The energy and mineral resources ministry revised the mineral benchmark price mechanism for nickel and aluminium ore, with nickel valuation now expanded beyond nickel content alone.

The Indonesia HPM formula raises the correction factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, compared with the previous 20% correction factor for 1.9% ore. Under the new framework, the correction factor rises or falls by one percentage point for every 0.1% change in nickel content.

This means the correction factor for 1.9% nickel ore will rise to 33%. The change increases the official value of nickel ore and could raise taxes, royalties and feedstock costs for processors that rely on HPM-linked transactions.

The Indonesia HPM formula also adds cobalt, iron and chromium into ore valuation. This is a major policy shift because these contained elements were not previously priced in the same way. Indonesia is now moving toward a more complete ore-value model, especially for laterite ores used in battery and stainless steel supply chains.

Cobalt, Iron and Chromium Inclusion Changes Nickel Ore Valuation

Indonesia’s new nickel HPM framework gives cobalt a correction factor of 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. This is particularly important for high-pressure acid leach producers because cobalt-bearing ore can generate additional value through mixed hydroxide precipitate.

The ministry also introduced a 10% correction factor for iron when ore contains 35% or less iron. Chromium content also carries a 10% correction factor. These additions make ore valuation more complex and link pricing more closely to the full chemistry of laterite deposits.

The inclusion of cobalt is the most strategically important change. Indonesia’s HPAL projects produce nickel-cobalt intermediates for battery supply chains, and cobalt content can materially affect project economics. By taxing cobalt-bearing value inside ore, Jakarta is capturing more upstream rent from battery-linked mineral flows.

The Indonesia HPM formula therefore moves beyond a simple nickel-grade benchmark. It pushes the country toward a broader mineral-value system that recognises by-product metals and secondary contained value.

The ministry kept the Harga Mineral Acuan reference price unchanged. This means the immediate policy impact comes from correction factors and added contained elements, rather than a change in the headline reference price.

Market participants are now assessing how the new rules will pass through to actual transactions. For nickel ore used in rotary kiln-electric furnace production, spot prices remain nearly double the HPM level. This limits the immediate impact on some stainless-linked ore trades because market prices already sit well above the official benchmark.

The impact is likely to be much stronger for HPAL ore. Ore used in HPAL processing often trades without the same premium seen in RKEF feedstock. As a result, the revised HPM formula could lift transacted HPAL ore prices by more than a third.

That cost increase would move directly into battery-grade nickel economics. Market participants estimate that higher ore prices and taxes could raise mixed hydroxide precipitate production costs by more than $1,000/t in nickel metal equivalent.

This matters because Indonesia has become the centre of global MHP supply growth. Chinese-backed HPAL projects rely on Indonesian ore, sulphuric acid, energy and logistics to supply nickel and cobalt intermediates to global battery chains. Higher ore costs could narrow margins across MHP, nickel sulphate and cathode material supply.

The change also arrives during a period of wider nickel policy uncertainty. Indonesia has been tightening mining quotas, reviewing export taxes and seeking greater value capture from its mineral resources. The revised HPM formula fits that direction by increasing government control over pricing and taxable value.

Nickel Policy Shift Extends to Bauxite and Signals Broader Resource Control

Indonesia’s pricing reform did not stop at nickel. The ministry also revised the HPM formula for bauxite, changing the price basis to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne.

The bauxite change adds a silica discount and raises the correction factor to $1.40/wmt for each one percentage point increase in aluminium oxide content. The previous formula used $1/dmt. This changes how moisture and ore quality are reflected in benchmark pricing.

The ministry also changed the price basis for lead ore to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne. This effectively removes moisture content from the pricing formula and simplifies the benchmark around wet material values.

These changes suggest a broader policy direction. Indonesia is refining benchmark pricing across mineral commodities to improve tax collection, capture more contained value and align official pricing with ore quality.

For nickel, the change has immediate market significance because Indonesia dominates global laterite supply. Nickel ore pricing affects stainless steel, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, MHP, nickel sulphate and battery cathode supply chains.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price response showed that traders are treating the policy as price-supportive. Nickel closed at Yn136,900/t after rising from Yn133,010/t on 3 April, with participants citing support from the revised HMA-linked pricing framework.

However, the real market impact will depend on how producers, smelters and government agencies implement the rules. If HPM-based taxes rise sharply while spot ore prices remain high, margin pressure could build across processors with weaker cost positions.

HPAL producers are the most exposed because their feedstock pricing may move more directly with the revised benchmark. RKEF operators may see less immediate change because their ore costs already reflect strong market premiums.

For battery materials buyers, the risk is that Indonesia’s cost base becomes more expensive even as global nickel markets remain oversupplied. Higher ore valuation may not tighten physical supply immediately, but it can raise the floor for production costs in one of the world’s most important nickel processing hubs.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource sovereignty. The government is using pricing formulas, mining quotas, export controls and tax compliance to ensure that more mineral value stays inside the country. This could support domestic revenue and downstream investment, but it may also increase uncertainty for processors and foreign investors.

The new framework also creates a precedent. If Indonesia successfully captures more value from cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore, other resource-rich countries may consider similar contained-metal pricing models.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula shows that nickel policy is moving from volume control to value capture. The biggest impact will fall on HPAL producers, where cobalt-bearing ore valuation could raise MHP costs and change battery nickel economics.

Indonesia Nickel Export Tax Delay Keeps Ore Pricing Uncertainty in Focus

Indonesia Nickel Factory

Indonesia nickel export tax implementation was postponed from its original 1 April start date as authorities continued to finalise the technical formula and applicable rates. The delay kept uncertainty high across the nickel ore and stainless steel supply chain.

Indonesia nickel export tax discussions now centre on how changes to the Harga Patokan Mineral pricing system will be calculated. Market participants are watching which reference prices and contained elements will be used in the revised ore pricing formula.

Indonesia nickel export tax uncertainty has already affected buying behaviour. With stainless steel demand broadly stable, some buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach because future import costs could rise once the tax structure is confirmed.

HPM Formula Review Could Broaden Nickel Ore Valuation

The key issue is whether Indonesia will expand the HPM formula beyond nickel content. Cobalt content in nickel ore is considered one of the most likely additions, while iron and chromium are also being discussed.

This would mark a meaningful change from the previous pricing approach. The Harga Mineral Acuan has largely used London Metal Exchange nickel prices as the main benchmark, but cobalt, iron and chromium create a more complex valuation problem.

The challenge is that not all of these elements have clear futures-based reference prices. Authorities therefore need to decide which benchmarks, market data or calculation methods should apply before the export tax can be implemented.

Export Tax Delay Still Leaves Cost Pressure on Buyers

Market participants expect the nickel export tax to follow a structure similar to Indonesia’s coal export levy. Potential rates could be set at 5%, 8% and 11%, depending on price levels.

However, it remains unclear which nickel products would ultimately fall under the tax. This lack of clarity matters because Indonesia’s nickel supply chain covers ore, intermediate products, stainless-related materials and battery-linked products.

The delay gives buyers short-term relief, but it does not remove the policy risk. Once implemented, the export tax could raise nickel import costs, affect procurement strategies and change the economics of ore supply into regional processing and stainless steel markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel export tax delay shows how difficult it is to tax mineral value when ore chemistry becomes more complex. The inclusion of cobalt, iron or chromium could make the policy more sophisticated, but it also increases pricing uncertainty for buyers and processors.

Civil Aircraft Tariff Exemption Shields Aerospace Trade but Metal Duties Remain

Airplanes parts

Civil aircraft tariff exemption rules will shield commercial aircraft, engines, parts, components, and subassemblies from the latest US import tariff. However, the carve-out does not remove existing tariff pressure on several critical aerospace metals used across aircraft manufacturing and high-performance supply chains.

The latest US measure applies a temporary 10pc tariff on most imports for 150 days from 24 February, with a possible 15pc rate subject to official implementation. Civil aviation products are excluded under annex I, covering all non-military aircraft and their related engines, parts, components, and other subassemblies.

The exemption follows strong aerospace industry resistance to earlier trade action. Commercial aviation supply chains are deeply global, and aircraft production depends on cross-border movement of precision parts, engines, structures, avionics, and certified materials. A broad tariff on these flows would have raised costs across Boeing, Airbus suppliers, engine makers, maintenance providers, and aerospace metals processors.

Aerospace Supply Chains Avoid Direct Aircraft Tariff Shock

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects one of the most globally integrated industrial supply chains from immediate disruption. Commercial aircraft manufacturing depends on certified components moving repeatedly between countries before final assembly, delivery, and maintenance.

This carve-out also supports the July EU-US agreement that restored transatlantic free trade on aircraft and component parts. That matters because Europe and the United States remain tightly connected in aircraft structures, engines, landing gear, fasteners, forgings, castings, and advanced materials.

However, the exemption does not mean aerospace manufacturers are free from trade cost risk. Tariffs can still affect upstream materials and intermediate inputs before they become certified aircraft parts. This creates a split market where finished aviation components may be protected, while key metals used to make them still face separate tariff regimes.

Critical Aerospace Metals Still Face Tariff Exposure

Critical aerospace metals remain exposed through existing Section 301 and Section 232 measures. Section 301 tariffs of 25pc on various materials used in aircraft and associated parts still apply. This keeps cost pressure on parts of the aerospace materials chain even after the civil aircraft carve-out.

Annex II also maintains exemptions for several critical materials, including titanium, cobalt, chromium, rhenium, nickel, tantalum, tungsten, and niobium. These materials are essential for aircraft engines, high-temperature alloys, fasteners, structural components, landing systems, and other demanding aerospace applications.

Hafnium stands out because it is not included in annex II and is therefore subject to the new tariff. That is strategically relevant because hafnium is used in high-temperature and advanced alloy applications, including aerospace and defence-related supply chains. The omission shows how narrow tariff classifications can create unexpected cost exposure for small but critical materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The civil aircraft tariff exemption protects final aerospace trade, but it does not fully protect the metals value chain behind it. The real risk now sits in the gap between tariff-exempt aircraft parts and tariff-exposed specialty materials.

Outokumpu Europe Loss Highlights the Pressure on Stainless Steel Margins

Outokumpu

Outokumpu Europe loss became the defining feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The Finnish stainless steel producer reported weaker deliveries, lower sales, and softer earnings for the year. Europe remained the main drag, while the Americas and ferro-chrome divisions provided support. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss shows how difficult the regional stainless market remains.

The company’s full-year stainless steel deliveries fell 2.3pc to 1.751mn t. Group sales dropped nearly 8pc to €5.47bn as realized prices weakened in both Europe and the Americas. Adjusted Ebitda slipped to €167mn from €177mn in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu Europe loss reflects both weaker pricing and a more challenging operating environment.

Fourth-quarter performance was even weaker. Stainless steel deliveries sank 13.5pc to 365,000t, hurt by soft demand and temporary disruption from a new ERP rollout. That rollout affected supply-chain planning in Europe during the quarter. Consequently, operational execution added to already fragile market conditions.

European Stainless Steel Demand Remains the Core Problem

European stainless steel demand remains the biggest weakness in Outokumpu’s portfolio. The company’s European business swung to an adjusted Ebitda loss of €46mn in 2025, compared with a €58mn profit in 2024. Deliveries in Europe fell 6pc to 1.148mn t, while realized prices dropped sharply. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss was driven by both lower volumes and thinner margins.

The fourth quarter showed even deeper stress. Adjusted Ebitda in Europe deteriorated to negative €56mn, worse than the negative €32mn recorded a year earlier. Deliveries in the region dropped 23pc year on year to 223,000t. Therefore, European stainless steel demand remains too weak to support profitable utilization.

Outokumpu is responding with restructuring. The company is targeting €100mn of structural annual cost savings by the end of 2027, mainly in Europe. It also booked €34mn of restructuring costs in the fourth quarter tied to personnel reductions. Meanwhile, pricing and capacity utilization continue to weigh on margins across the region.

Ferro-Chrome Earnings and the Americas Help Offset the Weakness

Ferro-chrome earnings and the Americas business helped prevent an even weaker group result. In the Americas, adjusted Ebitda rose to €102mn from €59mn in 2024. Deliveries increased 4.36pc to 622,000t as some customers shifted toward domestic suppliers during tariff changes. As a result, the Americas became the clearest positive area in the group.

The ferro-chrome division also delivered another solid year. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €138mn from €106mn, marking a third consecutive annual improvement. Deliveries increased 6pc to 395,000t, supported by stronger external demand and lower variable costs. Therefore, ferro-chrome earnings remain one of the company’s most reliable profit supports.

Outokumpu also continues to position itself for a lower-carbon future. The company confirmed a $45mn investment in a US pilot plant for low-CO₂ chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome technology. Management also believes CBAM could improve its relative competitiveness because of its lower carbon footprint. However, management still says demand in Europe and North America remains subdued and recovery evidence is limited.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s results show a familiar European steel problem: cost actions and regulation can help, but weak demand and price pressure still dominate the near term. The stronger Americas and ferro-chrome divisions give the company breathing room, yet Europe remains the business that will decide whether recovery becomes real in 2026.

ERG Kazakh Mining Investment Signals a Bigger Push Into Strategic Metals

ERG

ERG Kazakh mining investment marks a major expansion across mining, metals, and energy infrastructure. Eurasian Resources Group will invest $1bn in Kazakhstan operations. The plan covers new production facilities and plant upgrades. As a result, ERG Kazakh mining investment could deepen Kazakhstan’s role in strategic metals supply.

The investment stands out because it targets both existing strengths and new product categories. ERG already holds major positions in ferro-chrome, copper, cobalt, and aluminium. However, the new plan also includes gallium and hot briquetted iron. Therefore, the company is moving beyond scale toward broader industrial capability.

This strategy also aligns with Kazakhstan’s push for higher-value domestic processing. ERG is 40pc owned by the Kazakh government. That ownership gives the investment added policy importance. Meanwhile, the company is directing capital into assets that can reshape national metals capacity.

Kazakhstan Strategic Metals Strategy Expands Beyond Traditional Ferro-Alloys

Kazakhstan strategic metals development is becoming more diversified through this investment cycle. ERG plans to build production for materials not currently made in Kazakhstan. Gallium is the clearest example. Consequently, the project carries significance beyond normal mining expansion.

Gallium production Kazakhstan could gain new strategic relevance if the plan succeeds. ERG is targeting annual gallium capacity of 15t. That volume is modest in absolute terms. However, gallium matters because it supports semiconductors, electronics, and advanced industrial applications.

The broader programme also includes a new chromium mine and modernisation at Aksu Power Station. ERG will also build vertical calcination kilns and filtration units at Pavlodar Alumina Plant. These projects improve production depth rather than only adding raw tonnage. Therefore, the investment looks designed to strengthen industrial resilience.

Hot Briquetted Iron Kazakhstan Plan Adds Value to the Steel Chain

Hot briquetted iron Kazakhstan development is another important part of the package. ERG intends to advance an HBI plant and an iron ore pellet plant this year. HBI offers a cleaner and more tradable iron unit than many traditional forms. As a result, it could support both export competitiveness and lower-emission steelmaking options.

The company is also building an 80MW ferro-alloy gas utilisation power station at Aktobe. That project matters because power efficiency remains critical in ferro-alloy production. Improved energy integration can protect margins and reduce waste. Meanwhile, it can make domestic metallurgy more competitive.

ERG Kazakh mining investment therefore combines metals expansion with infrastructure reinforcement. It is not simply a capacity announcement. It is a portfolio redesign around strategic materials, processing value, and energy efficiency. That makes the programme more important than its headline number alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This investment shows Kazakhstan wants more than raw resource relevance. It wants stronger control over value-added metals and processing chains. If execution stays on track, ERG could become a more important strategic supplier across both traditional alloys and emerging critical materials.

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment targets high-value aerospace and defence demand

Outokumpu US chromium metal

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment marks a strategic move into premium specialty metals for aerospace, defence and energy markets. The New Hampshire pilot plant will produce enriched ferro-chrome at 65pc Cr and chromium metal at 90pc Cr purity. As a result, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment positions the group closer to high-spec alloy supply chains in North America.

Low-carbon chromium technology and staged capacity build-out

Outokumpu is using proprietary low-carbon technology at the new US pilot plant. The facility is scheduled to start operations in the first half of 2027, following earlier R&D work at its Boston laboratory opened in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment clearly links regional technology development with commercial-scale metals production.

The $45mn pilot project will validate process performance, carbon intensity and product quality for enriched ferro-chrome and chromium metal. After the pilot phase, Outokumpu plans an industrial-scale plant with 10,000 t/yr capacity, targeted for 2029-30 start-up. This staged approach reduces scale-up risk while building customer confidence in long-term chromium supply.

Premium chromium metal for aerospace and critical sectors

Outokumpu aims to supply premium-priced chromium metal into high-value aerospace, defence and energy applications. Chromium metal already trades at a wide pricing spread by origin and specification, with European material priced well above Chinese and Russian supply. European-origin chromium for aerospace and defence often sits at or above the top of current market assessments, reinforcing the value of qualifying high-purity product.

By anchoring production in the US, Outokumpu can offer a Western, lower-carbon source of chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome. This strengthens regional resilience for aero-engine alloys, superalloys and advanced stainless grades. In turn, the Outokumpu US chromium metal investment moves the company’s ferro-chrome business further into the specialty metals space, as highlighted by chief technology officer Stefan Erdmann.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu is reading the market correctly by aligning chromium metal capacity with aerospace and defence re-shoring trends. If the new technology delivers both lower carbon and tight specifications, the company could secure a durable price premium despite global oversupply risks. The key watchpoints now are qualification timelines with major alloy producers and how quickly industrial-scale capacity locks in long-term offtake.