EGA Guinea Bauxite Supply Deal Restores Route to UAE Alumina Operations

Bauxite

EGA Guinea bauxite supply has moved closer to normalisation after Emirates Global Aluminium reached an amicable settlement with Guinea over the revocation of its bauxite mining licence. The agreement will allow Guinean producer CBG to resume bauxite shipments to EGA’s operations in the UAE.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply had been disrupted since Guinean customs suspended shipments from EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina in October 2024. The suspension followed delays in EGA’s plan to build an alumina refinery in Guinea.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply became more uncertain in 2025 when Guinea revoked EGA’s bauxite mining licence and reassigned it to newly created state-owned firm Nimba Mining. GAC continued to seek redress through legal action before the latest settlement.

The agreement includes a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to Nimba Mining. It also renews EGA’s bauxite supply agreements with CBG under mutually beneficial commercial terms.

Guinea Settlement Reopens a Strategic Bauxite Channel

The settlement is important because Guinea is one of the world’s most important bauxite supply sources. Its high-volume export role makes it central to alumina refineries and integrated aluminium producers.

For EGA, access to Guinean bauxite supports feedstock security for its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE. Stable bauxite supply is essential because alumina production depends on consistent ore quality, logistics and long-term commercial arrangements.

The dispute also shows how resource nationalism is reshaping aluminium raw material supply. Guinea has been pushing for more domestic value creation and stronger state control over mining assets.

The revocation of EGA’s licence formed part of a broader review of more than 50 mining licences granted over the past two decades. Those licences covered bauxite, iron ore, gold, diamonds and graphite.

By transferring assets to Nimba Mining while renewing supply through CBG, Guinea preserves more state influence while allowing trade with EGA to resume. This gives both sides a practical route out of a prolonged dispute.

For the wider aluminium market, the settlement reduces one layer of uncertainty around bauxite flows. However, it also reinforces the need for producers to manage political risk in key mining jurisdictions.

Hormuz Disruption and Smelter Damage Still Cloud Recovery

The bauxite agreement does not immediately remove all operational risk for EGA. The resumption of shipments to Al Taweelah depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been disrupted by the US-Israel and Iran war.

This adds a logistics risk to the feedstock recovery. Even with commercial terms resolved, bauxite and alumina supply chains still depend on safe shipping routes through one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.

EGA is also dealing with damage at its Al Taweelah aluminium smelter after a missile attack on 28 March. Operations there could take a year to resume, creating a separate challenge for the company’s primary aluminium output.

The situation highlights the dual exposure of integrated aluminium producers. They need secure upstream bauxite and alumina supply, but they also need reliable power, smelter operations and shipping routes.

For EGA, the Guinea settlement is a major positive for raw material continuity. But the company’s near-term recovery will still depend on geopolitical stability, shipping access and the pace of repairs at Al Taweelah.

The broader industrial message is clear. Aluminium supply security now depends on more than ore availability. It requires political settlement, maritime access, energy security and resilient smelting infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA’s settlement with Guinea shows that bauxite supply is becoming a political asset, not just a mining contract. The deal restores an important feedstock route, but Hormuz disruption and Al Taweelah damage show how fragile integrated aluminium supply chains have become.

DRC Mine Guard Plan Puts Critical Minerals Security at the Centre of Supply Chains

DRC, Inspectorate of Mines

DRC mine guard plans mark a major escalation in the country’s effort to secure critical minerals supply chains. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s General Inspectorate of Mines will develop a paramilitary unit to protect mine sites, ore transport routes, processors and border corridors.

The DRC mine guard will be created as part of a strategic partnership involving the US and UAE. The project is expected to cost up to $100mn and will use existing training facilities.

The DRC mine guard could deploy up to 20,000 troops over the next two years. Recruitment is expected to begin in May, with the first operational contingent of 2,500-3,000 officers targeted for deployment by December.

The plan reflects the growing strategic value of Congolese minerals. The DRC is a major producer of copper, cobalt, tantalum, tin and tungsten, all of which are critical to batteries, electronics, defence systems, energy infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

Mineral Security Becomes a Formal State Priority

The mine guard will be tasked with securing mine sites across the DRC and protecting ore shipments from mines to processors and border posts. It will gradually replace forces currently deployed to defend mining assets.

The unit is expected to cover the Greater Katanga and Greater Eastern regions by the end of 2027. It is then planned to expand to all mining provinces by the end of 2028.

This regional focus is important. Greater Katanga is central to copper and cobalt production, while eastern DRC is tied to several strategic minerals and long-running security challenges.

The plan shows that mineral security is becoming part of formal state policy. Mine protection is no longer only a company-level issue involving private security, local forces or site-specific arrangements.

For producers, a more structured security framework could reduce disruption risk if implemented effectively. It could improve transport reliability, protect export flows and lower exposure to armed interference around mining corridors.

However, execution will be critical. A large paramilitary force operating across mining regions must be governed transparently to avoid creating new operational, political or human-rights risks.

US and UAE Partnership Signals Strategic Minerals Competition

The mine guard plan is linked to a broader US-DRC strategic partnership agreed in December 2025. That agreement included expanded US access to DRC critical minerals and a wider minerals-for-security-style framework.

The agreements were part of the Washington accords, a US-backed peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda designed to reduce conflict in eastern DRC. But fighting has continued, with the Rwanda-backed M23 group still controlling several major towns and mining assets. Rwanda denies backing the group.

This makes the security dimension central to mineral strategy. Western governments want more reliable access to DRC copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, but supply cannot be secured only through offtake agreements or financing.

Physical control of mine sites, transport routes and border flows is becoming just as important as ownership and processing capacity.

For the US, the DRC offers one of the fastest routes to large-scale copper and cobalt supply outside China-dominated value chains. For the DRC, security partnerships could bring funding, international backing and more leverage over strategic mineral flows.

The creation of a mine guard also signals that critical minerals are now treated as national security assets. Copper and cobalt are no longer only mining commodities. They are inputs for batteries, grids, defence manufacturing and geopolitical supply-chain competition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC mine guard plan shows that critical minerals security is moving from boardrooms into the field. The key question is whether this force can protect supply chains without adding new governance risks to one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

US Sanctions on Hengli Refinery Tighten Pressure on Iranian Crude Flows to China

Hengli Petrochemical

US sanctions on Hengli refinery mark a renewed escalation in Washington’s effort to restrict Iranian crude flows into China. The US Treasury Department sanctioned Chinese independent refiner Hengli Petrochemical, accusing it of importing Iranian crude in violation of US sanctions.

US sanctions on Hengli refinery affect one of China’s largest independent refiners, with capacity of around 400,000 b/d. Hengli has relied heavily on Iranian and Russian crude, while also holding a term supply contract with Saudi Aramco.

US sanctions on Hengli refinery could therefore reshape its crude slate more directly than earlier measures. The sanctions may block future access to Saudi crude, limiting Hengli’s flexibility at a time when Iranian forward cargo availability is already tightening.

The action also comes as the US continues its naval blockade of Iranian trade and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to navigation. This raises the pressure on crude logistics, shadow fleet operations and Chinese refinery procurement.

Hengli Sanctions Target China’s Independent Refining System

The Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a wind-down license allowing Hengli’s counterparties to end business with the refinery by 24 May. This gives suppliers, banks, traders and shipping partners a short window to reduce exposure.

The practical impact could be wider than the direct US designation. Sanctions can affect financing, insurance, shipping, letters of credit, crude supply contracts and trading relationships.

Hengli is particularly exposed because it sits between sanctioned crude flows and more conventional supply channels. The company has relied mostly on Iranian and Russian crude, but it also has access to Saudi term supply.

Losing access to Saudi crude would reduce feedstock optionality. It would also make Hengli more dependent on discounted, politically risky barrels or alternative spot procurement.

The sanctions follow earlier US actions against Chinese independent refiners, ports and terminals in 2025. Those measures failed to stop Iranian crude exports to China, but they increased compliance risk across the trade.

Washington paused new sanctions after October as US-China diplomatic talks resumed. The latest action signals that energy sanctions are again moving ahead despite planned high-level talks between the US and China.

The timing is sensitive. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing next month after delaying an earlier trip because of the US-Israel war against Iran.

Shadow Fleet Logistics Face Renewed Pressure

Iranian crude still reaches China through a complex network of intermediaries, shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers near Malaysia and Indonesia. These routes obscure origin and help cargoes reach independent refiners.

The US blockade has already reduced offers of Iranian forward cargoes to Chinese buyers. This is important because Chinese refiners depend on predictable discounted flows to maintain margins.

China’s imports from Malaysia and Indonesia reached a record 2.54mn b/d last month. These origins are often used as reported loading points for Iranian crude delivered through transhipment networks.

Floating storage trends also suggest logistics stress. Iranian crude floating storage off China has risen to nearly 20mn bl, while floating storage off Malaysia has fallen sharply from early-year levels.

This may limit future arrivals if fewer cargoes are available for onward delivery. It also suggests that some barrels are waiting near China because discharge, documentation or refinery acceptance has become more complicated.

OFAC also sanctioned 19 shadow fleet vessels accused of moving Iranian crude, LPG and petroleum products to the UAE, Bangladesh and China. This was the second vessel-focused sanctions wave under Operation Economic Fury.

The vessel sanctions matter because shadow fleet capacity is now a strategic part of sanctioned oil trade. If Washington continues to target tankers, freight availability, insurance risk and ship-to-ship transfer costs could rise.

For Chinese refiners, the sanctions increase procurement uncertainty. Iranian crude may remain available, but the cost of handling it could increase through higher freight, longer waiting times and greater compliance risk.

For the broader oil market, the impact depends on whether sanctions reduce actual flows or simply push them through more opaque channels. The US tried similar measures before, but Chinese demand for discounted crude has proven resilient.

Still, the current environment is more fragile. The Strait of Hormuz disruption, higher geopolitical risk and tighter enforcement against tankers make the logistics chain more vulnerable than usual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US is targeting the weakest link in Iranian crude flows to China: not demand, but logistics, financing and refinery access. Hengli’s case shows that sanctions are moving from broad pressure toward specific chokepoints in crude procurement and shadow fleet infrastructure.

Refined Zinc Deficit Forecast Signals Tight Balance Despite Mine Supply Growth

ILZSG

Refined zinc deficit conditions are expected in 2026 as global demand slightly outpaces refined metal supply, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. The group forecasts a refined zinc deficit of 19,000t this year.

The refined zinc deficit reflects a market where demand growth remains modest but supply growth is also limited. Global refined zinc demand is expected to rise by 1.3% to 14mn t, while refined zinc output is forecast to increase by 1.4% to 13.99mn t.

The refined zinc deficit is not large, but it highlights a fragile balance in a metal tied closely to galvanised steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction and industrial manufacturing. Even small shifts in mine output, smelter operations or steel demand could move the market back into surplus or deeper deficit.

China, Europe and India Support Zinc Demand

China remains the world’s largest zinc consumer and will continue to anchor demand growth. ILZSG expects Chinese refined zinc demand to rise by 1.8% in 2026, following 1.9% growth in 2025.

European demand is forecast to rise by 1.1% this year, slowing from 3.5% growth last year. US demand growth is also expected to moderate to 1.4%, after expanding by 7% in 2025.

India and South Korea are expected to post higher refined zinc demand. Their growth reflects continued industrial activity, infrastructure needs and manufacturing consumption.

The Middle East outlook is weaker. Iran’s zinc usage is expected to decline sharply because of major infrastructure damage, especially in the steel sector, caused by the war. Demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also expected to fall because of refined metal import disruption and economic instability.

This regional split matters for zinc producers and traders. Growth in Asia may support consumption, but slower demand in Europe and the US, combined with disruption in the Middle East, limits the strength of the global demand recovery.

Mine Supply Rises Slowly as Smelters Face Concentrate and Energy Constraints

Global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by only 0.3% to 12.55mn t in 2026. This follows a stronger 2025, when mine production rose by 4.8%, or 5.9% excluding China.

This year’s mine growth will be supported by higher output in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Portugal and China. New capacity in China, including the Huoshaoyun mine, is expected to contribute to supply.

However, declines in Peru, Sweden and the US will partly offset these gains. Lower output is expected at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, three important zinc-producing operations.

Refined zinc output is expected to rise by 1.4% to 13.99mn t. Chinese refined production is forecast to grow by 3% as new capacity starts up, following a 6.7% increase last year.

European refined output is also expected to rise, supported by Boliden’s Odda smelter expansion in Norway and the planned restart of Russia’s Verkhny Ufaley smelter. However, higher energy costs and limited concentrate availability continue to pressure several European producers.

Outside Europe and China, refined zinc production is expected to increase in South Korea but decline in Iran and Canada. This shows that refined zinc supply remains exposed to regional energy costs, concentrate access and operational disruption.

The lead market presents a different picture. ILZSG expects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 109,000t in 2026, with output rising by 1.3% to 13.83mn t and demand increasing by 1.1% to 13.72mn t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The refined zinc deficit forecast points to a market that is balanced on a narrow edge, not structurally short. Zinc’s outlook will depend on whether Chinese smelter growth and new mine capacity can offset weaker regional demand and concentrate constraints.

EGA Aluminium Recycling Strategy Expands With Eco Green Acquisition

EGA Aluminium Recycling

EGA aluminium recycling strategy has advanced with Emirates Global Aluminium agreeing to acquire an 80% stake in Italian aluminium recycler Eco Green. The deal strengthens EGA’s recycled aluminium footprint in Europe and adds another foreign recycling platform to its growing international network.

Eco Green operates near Verona in northeast Italy. The company collects, sorts and distributes around 23,000 t/yr of aluminium scrap, while its nearby casting facility produces more than 20,000 t/yr of secondary aluminium sows.

EGA aluminium recycling capacity will expand further because Eco Green is planning an additional 15,000 t/yr of recycled aluminium capacity at its casting facility. This gives EGA both existing production and near-term growth potential in the European secondary aluminium market.

The acquisition shows that EGA is moving beyond its traditional UAE-based integrated aluminium model. Instead of relying only on primary metal expansion, the company is buying recycling assets closer to scrap sources and downstream customers.

Eco Green Adds European Scrap and Casting Capacity

Eco Green gives EGA direct access to Italian aluminium scrap collection, sorting and secondary casting capacity. This is strategically important because scrap access is becoming a core competitive advantage in aluminium.

Secondary aluminium requires far less energy than primary aluminium. It also helps customers reduce embedded carbon in automotive, packaging, construction and industrial products.

The Verona-area location gives Eco Green access to Europe’s mature industrial scrap flows. Italy is one of Europe’s major manufacturing centres, which supports steady availability of post-industrial aluminium scrap.

The casting facility also gives EGA a route to convert collected scrap into secondary aluminium sows. This strengthens value capture because the business is not limited to scrap trading or sorting.

The planned 15,000 t/yr expansion will deepen that position. It should allow Eco Green to process more scrap internally and support EGA’s broader recycled aluminium supply targets.

EGA Builds a Global Secondary Aluminium Platform

The Eco Green deal follows EGA’s acquisition of German recycling company Leichtmetalle in 2024. EGA later announced an expansion of that facility, which will increase capacity more than six-fold.

EGA also bought a majority stake in US secondary aluminium smelter Spectro Alloys in 2024. Since then, it has announced two expansions that will lift Spectro’s total capacity to more than 200,000 t/yr of secondary aluminium ingots and billets, from 110,000 t/yr previously.

Following the Eco Green acquisition, EGA aluminium recycling capacity will total more than 400,000 t/yr across the UAE, Europe and the US. A further 200,000 t/yr is under development.

This creates a more diversified aluminium business. EGA can still rely on its primary aluminium base in the UAE, but recycling gives it lower-carbon growth in key consuming regions.

The strategy also responds to customer demand. Buyers increasingly want aluminium with lower carbon intensity, traceable scrap inputs and regional supply security.

For EGA, recycled aluminium acquisitions offer faster market entry than building new primary smelting capacity. They also reduce exposure to energy-intensive growth and place the company closer to circular aluminium supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA’s Eco Green acquisition confirms that global aluminium competition is shifting toward scrap control and secondary capacity. The winners in low-carbon aluminium will not only own smelters; they will own regional recycling networks close to customers.

Al Taweelah Smelter Damage Raises New Risks for Aluminium and Bauxite Logistics

EGA

Al Taweelah smelter damage has introduced a new shock into the Gulf metals supply chain. Emirates Global Aluminium said the site suffered significant damage during an Iranian missile and drone attack. Several employees were also injured. As a result, Al Taweelah smelter damage is now a major concern for UAE aluminium supply and regional logistics.

The scale of the site makes this event important. Al Taweelah produced 1.6mn t of cast metal in 2025. EGA also had substantial metal stocks already on the water and in some overseas locations. Therefore, immediate supply disruption may be partly cushioned, but operational risk has clearly increased.

The impact extends beyond aluminium production alone. EGA is also a major bauxite importer and a significant Capesize charterer. That means Al Taweelah smelter damage could affect raw material flows, shipping patterns, and freight sentiment at the same time. Consequently, the market now faces both industrial and maritime uncertainty.

Bauxite Logistics Disruption Is Becoming a Second Critical Risk

Bauxite logistics disruption is now almost as important as the plant damage itself. EGA lost access to its Guinean mining licence in 2025 and shifted more strongly toward Australia and Ghana. Australian bauxite shipments rose sharply last year. Therefore, Al Taweelah has become more exposed to long-distance seaborne supply.

That supply chain is now under strain. Some vessels bound for Al Taweelah are effectively trapped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA has also tried to route Australian bauxite through Fujairah with onward land transport. However, war risk has clearly complicated those contingency plans.

This matters because aluminium smelters depend on uninterrupted upstream inputs. Even when finished metal stocks exist, feedstock insecurity can weaken confidence in future output. Meanwhile, higher freight risk can raise delivered raw material costs. As a result, bauxite logistics disruption may prove more persistent than the initial headline shock.

UAE Aluminium Supply Faces a Complex Market Response

UAE aluminium supply may tighten, but price direction is not straightforward. Supply shocks would normally support aluminium prices and freight rates. However, broader aluminium demand is also weakening. Therefore, the market is being pulled between bullish disruption and softer consumption.

That tension is already visible in recent pricing behavior. War-driven gains in aluminium prices have faded after an earlier peak. Traders now appear less certain that physical disruption alone can sustain higher prices. Consequently, Al Taweelah smelter damage may increase volatility more than it creates a clean bullish trend.

The regional risk picture also remains wider than one producer. Iranian steelmakers were also hit, and Gulf producers now face higher retaliation fears. This means the market is not dealing with an isolated industrial incident. Instead, it is confronting a broader escalation risk across metals, energy, and shipping.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is not only an aluminium plant story. It is a reminder that modern metals supply chains can break at both the production site and the shipping lane. If Al Taweelah remains constrained and Hormuz stays unstable, aluminium, bauxite, and freight markets will all remain highly sensitive.

EGA Aluminium Recycling Plant Moves Closer to Commissioning at Al Taweelah

EGA Aluminium Recycling Plant

The EGA aluminium recycling plant has reached a major construction milestone at Al Taweelah. Emirates Global Aluminium charged the melting furnace for the first time at its new recycling site. That step moves the project closer to final completion and commercial start-up. As a result, the EGA aluminium recycling plant is becoming a more important part of the UAE’s aluminium value chain.

This development matters because the facility will expand domestic recycling capacity at industrial scale. EGA expects the plant to be completed by the end of this quarter. Scrap sorting equipment commissioning already began in December last year. Meanwhile, work continues on the casting and homogenisation stations. Therefore, the Al Taweelah recycling facility is shifting from construction into final execution.

The project also supports a broader market trend toward lower-carbon aluminium supply. The plant will blend recycled and primary aluminium into low-carbon billets and T-bars. These products will be sold under the RevivAL brand. Consequently, EGA is positioning recycled content as a commercial and strategic advantage.

UAE Aluminium Recycling Capacity Is Entering a New Phase

UAE aluminium recycling is moving into a much larger industrial phase with this project. The new melting furnace has a capacity of 90,000 t/yr. The wider plant will produce 185,000 t/yr of billets and T-bars. That makes the project much more than a niche sustainability initiative.

Scale matters because regional scrap processing capacity remains limited compared with primary aluminium strength. EGA has long been associated with primary metal production. However, the new plant adds a downstream recycling layer that can improve raw material flexibility. As a result, the company can strengthen its position across both primary and secondary aluminium flows.

The project also has national significance. EGA said the facility will become the largest aluminium recycling plant in the UAE. It will also make the company the country’s largest scrap processor. Therefore, the plant may help create a more integrated domestic aluminium ecosystem with stronger circularity.

Low-Carbon Aluminium Billets Could Strengthen EGA’s Market Position

Low-carbon aluminium billets are becoming more important as buyers demand lower-emission metal solutions. Customers in construction, transport, and industrial manufacturing increasingly want products with stronger carbon credentials. EGA’s recycling project responds directly to that shift. Meanwhile, the inclusion of primary aluminium gives the company more control over consistency and specification.

This blended production model may also offer commercial flexibility. Pure scrap-based output can face limits in chemistry control and product range. By combining recycled and primary metal, EGA can target both sustainability and performance. Consequently, the plant could appeal to customers that want lower-carbon material without sacrificing technical requirements.

The timing is also notable for the wider aluminium market. Producers are under pressure to show credible decarbonisation pathways, not only long-term targets. New recycling assets offer one of the fastest ways to improve emissions intensity. Therefore, the EGA aluminium recycling plant could become a visible example of how Gulf aluminium producers adapt to changing market expectations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project matters because it connects scale, recycling, and low-carbon product strategy in one asset. EGA is not just adding a furnace. It is building a stronger position in the future aluminium market, where recycled content and product quality will increasingly move together.

EGA aluminium decarbonisation agreements reshape Abu Dhabi’s power model for low-carbon metal

EGA Aluminium

EGA aluminium decarbonisation agreements will rewire how Emirates Global Aluminium sources power and markets greener metal. The deal package links asset sales, long-term power purchasing, and grid upgrades into one decarbonisation roadmap. However, the strategy also locks in multi-decade electricity arrangements to protect smelter stability. Therefore, customers seeking certified low-carbon premium aluminium may see more supply and clearer contracting signals.

The headline move shifts power and water assets at Al Taweelah into new hands for $1.9bn. Abu Dhabi National Energy Company and Dubal Holding will acquire the assets, while Emirates Water and Electricity Company signs a power purchase agreement for the gas-fired plant through 2049. Meanwhile, TAQA Transmission will acquire EGA’s electricity transmission assets. As a result, EGA can focus capital on production and decarbonisation execution, rather than owning and operating utility infrastructure.

Abu Dhabi clean power deal locks long-term electricity while raising renewables share

Abu Dhabi clean power deal terms extend across the next 24 years. TAQA Distribution and Emirates Water and Electricity Company will supply power under new agreements that gradually lift renewable and clean energy share. Meanwhile, solar generation projects coming online under EWEC will drive that shift over time. Therefore, EGA can reduce its carbon intensity without destabilising baseload operations.

This structure also signals a maturing industrial power model in the UAE. The deal uses long-term contracting to de-risk both grid investment and smelter continuity. However, the pace of decarbonisation will still depend on project delivery and grid integration. As a result, procurement teams may track renewables ramp milestones as closely as aluminium premiums.

Low-carbon premium aluminium expands via CelestiAL and MinimAL output targets

Low-carbon premium aluminium will become a bigger share of EGA’s sales mix if the plan holds. EGA aims to raise production of its CelestiAL solar aluminium and MinimAL nuclear-powered aluminium to almost half of total primary output by end-2028, subject to market demand. Meanwhile, that scale-up could tighten differentiation between commodity metal and verified low-carbon units. Therefore, buyers in automotive, packaging, and construction can build greener supply chains with fewer sourcing compromises.

EGA aluminium decarbonisation agreements also influence regional competition. The move may pressure other producers to secure cleaner power, improve disclosures, and justify carbon premiums. However, premium markets will still test whether customers pay consistently for lower emissions. As a result, contract structures and traceability claims will matter as much as headline capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA aluminium decarbonisation agreements look designed to industrialise decarbonisation, not just pilot it. However, long-dated power structures can create rigidity if policy or technology shifts quickly. Therefore, the winners will be buyers who lock in low-carbon premium aluminium with credible attributes and flexible delivery terms.

New Al wire rod plant planned for UAE to supply 36,000 t/yr as power cable demand rises

Mark Cables

New Al wire rod plant planned for UAE will add new downstream capacity next to a major primary aluminium hub. Mark Cables Power Solutions plans to build an aluminium rod manufacturing plant in the Khalifa Economic Zone, adjacent to Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter. New Al wire rod plant planned for UAE targets 36,000 tonnes per year of multiple aluminium rod grades. Therefore, the project strengthens regional conversion capacity for power cable and conductor markets.

The plant will supply Mark Cables facilities in Dubai and Angola, while also selling to third-party customers across the UAE, Africa, and Europe. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium signed a non-binding agreement to supply 35,000 tonnes per year of aluminium to the proposed facility. As a result, the site pairing reduces logistics friction between primary metal and rod conversion.

Wire rod demand grows as grids expand and electrification accelerates

Wire rod is becoming a high-growth aluminium segment as electricity networks expand. Regional and global utilities are building new transmission and distribution capacity to integrate renewable power. Meanwhile, electrification trends in developing economies are lifting baseline demand for cables and conductors. Therefore, New Al wire rod plant planned for UAE aligns with long-cycle grid spending and near-term manufacturing localisation.

Aluminium is also gaining share against copper in many power cable applications. Manufacturers use aluminium to lower material cost while meeting performance requirements. However, substitution depends on design choices, standards compliance, and end-user specifications. As a result, new rod capacity can benefit most where buyers already approve aluminium conductor solutions.

UAE downstream expansion targets value-added exports and supply security

Placing rod production beside a large smelter can improve supply security and working capital efficiency. The proximity can support steadier metal flows, faster turnaround, and lower conversion risk. Meanwhile, selling into Africa and Europe can diversify demand beyond domestic consumption. Therefore, New Al wire rod plant planned for UAE can act as an export-oriented downstream anchor.

The project also signals a broader shift toward value capture inside producing countries. UAE aluminium strategy increasingly links primary output to downstream products that serve energy transition supply chains. However, success will depend on ramp execution, customer qualification, and competitive conversion costs. As a result, early offtake traction with third-party buyers will be a key indicator.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Wire rod investment follows the same logic as grid investment. Meanwhile, aluminium substitution will keep expanding where cost and performance align. Therefore, UAE-based rod capacity could win share by combining low-friction metal supply with export-ready logistics.

Brazil Russia Latin America stability takes centre stage after Maduro arrest

Brazil Russia Latin America

Brazil Russia Latin America stability has moved to the forefront after the dramatic US arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin used a bilateral call to align positions on Venezuela and to push for a coordinated diplomatic response. Both leaders framed the situation as a test of sovereignty and non-intervention principles that will shape broader Brazil Russia Latin America stability in the coming months.

Brazil Russia Latin America stability and the Venezuela shock

Brazil Russia Latin America stability is now directly linked to how the region manages the fallout from the US raid in Caracas. Lula and Putin agreed to champion Venezuela’s sovereignty and national interests at the UN Security Council and within the expanded Brics grouping, signalling a more assertive counterweight to Washington’s approach. As a result, Brazil is positioning itself not only as a neighbour seeking regional calm but also as a bridge between Western powers and a Russia-aligned camp. Meanwhile, Russia is using the crisis to reinforce its narrative that regime-change style operations undermine global order and must face diplomatic pushback.

Brics diplomacy and the risks for regional supply chains

Brazil Russia Latin America stability also depends on how Brics diplomacy evolves around Venezuela’s crisis. The two countries plan to deepen coordination with fellow Brics members such as China, India and new entrants including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, creating a wider political platform for contesting US actions. This alignment could spill over into trade, defence and energy ties, reshaping investment flows and potentially complicating Western access to key Latin American supply chains. However, heightened geopolitical rivalry around Venezuela also raises the risk of sanctions, financial volatility and policy uncertainty that could weigh on regional growth and cross-border projects.

What Brazil Russia Latin America stability means for business

For companies, Brazil Russia Latin America stability will be measured less by rhetoric and more by how institutions manage the crisis. Investors will watch whether Brazil can maintain a balanced stance that protects its US and European ties while expanding strategic cooperation with Russia. At the same time, renewed tension around Venezuela could disrupt trade corridors, alter perceptions of political risk and influence capital allocation across sectors such as agriculture, mining, logistics and energy services. As a result, risk management, scenario planning and closer monitoring of diplomatic signals will become essential for firms exposed to Latin American markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The emerging Brazil Russia Latin America stability axis highlights how Venezuela’s crisis has become a global test case for sovereignty, great-power competition and energy geopolitics. For market participants, the key question is whether this diplomatic alignment produces a managed de-escalation or ushers in a more fragmented regional order that complicates long-term investment decisions.

US UAE Critical Minerals Fund Targets Near-Term Supply Security

Orion Resource Partners

The US UAE critical minerals fund aims to rapidly strengthen non-Chinese supply chains for strategic metals and minerals. The new vehicle, led by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Orion Resource Partners and UAE sovereign fund ADQ, starts with $1.8bn in commitments and targets $5bn over time. As a result, the US UAE critical minerals fund immediately positions itself as one of the largest dedicated pools of capital in this space.

US UAE critical minerals fund focuses on producing and near-producing assets

The US UAE critical minerals fund will prioritise existing or near-term producing assets rather than early-stage exploration. This approach reflects government urgency to secure physical flows of rare earths, battery metals and other strategic materials within this decade. Therefore, capital will likely concentrate on brownfield expansions, processing plants and last-mile infrastructure instead of high-risk greenfield drilling campaigns.

Public-private partnerships in critical minerals are becoming a defining feature of the energy transition. Earlier this week, Appian Capital Advisory and the International Finance Corporation launched a $1bn fund for similar purposes. Meanwhile, the US government has repeatedly partnered with private investors as it tries to dilute dependence on Chinese refining and processing capacity.

US security strategy extends from stockpiles to allied supply chains

The new US UAE critical minerals fund complements a broader US security toolkit that includes stockpiles and equity stakes. The US Defense Logistics Agency has been issuing requests for proposals to expand domestic critical mineral inventories beyond current annual production and imports. In parallel, the Pentagon acquired a 15pc stake in MP Materials, the only integrated US rare earths producer, backed by an offtake agreement with a price floor for NdPr products.

However, Washington is also exporting this strategy through alliances. The recent US–Australia agreement will channel at least $1bn from each government into priority critical minerals projects in both countries over the next six months. By aligning funds such as the US UAE critical minerals fund with bilateral deals, the US is stitching together a network of “friendly” mines, refineries and separation plants across multiple jurisdictions.

Over time, these overlapping initiatives could create alternative pricing references and more transparent offtake structures. As a result, investors may gain better visibility on project cash flows in a market still dominated by opaque Chinese contract terms and discretionary export policies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US UAE critical minerals fund underscores how geopolitics is now hard-wired into capital allocation for mining and processing. If the consortium executes quickly on producing and near-producing projects, it could materially accelerate non-Chinese supply in rare earths and other key minerals. The real test will be whether these funds can overcome permitting delays, community concerns and price volatility that have historically slowed critical minerals development.

EGA’s nuclear-powered aluminium debuts as ENEC power decarbonises smelting

EGA

Nuclear-powered aluminium enters the market as Emirates Global Aluminium partners with ENEC. Nuclear-powered aluminium reduces Scope 2 emissions at EGA’s UAE smelters. Nuclear-powered aluminium targets fast-growing demand for low-carbon, “green” metal.

How the Barakah link enables low-carbon tonnes

EGA received carbon-free electricity from ENEC’s Barakah plant. The power supported production of nuclear-powered aluminium under EGA’s MinimAL brand. The first shipment went to Egypt’s Canex Aluminum for downstream use. As a result, EGA broadens its certified low-carbon portfolio beyond solar. The company already supplies CelestiAl solar aluminium to BMW.

Why this matters for auto and packaging supply chains

Large buyers now prioritise embedded-carbon reductions. Nuclear-powered aluminium offers baseload, zero-carbon power without intermittency. Therefore, it complements solar aluminium in meeting 24/7 load. Buyers can hedge energy mix risks while hitting Scope 3 targets. Meanwhile, producers gain a credible route to near-term decarbonisation at scale.

Global demand for low-carbon aluminium is rising sharply. EGA expects demand to triple by 2040. Consequently, nuclear-powered aluminium could secure premiums in autos, packaging, and construction. It may also anchor long-term offtakes tied to clean power availability.

EGA continues to diversify energy sourcing. The ENEC partnership supplies about a quarter of UAE electricity. This strengthens energy security and emissions performance. In turn, it positions UAE metal as a competitive low-carbon choice.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nuclear baseload changes the economics of green smelting in sunny regions. Expect more hybrid portfolios that blend nuclear, solar, and grid contracts. Premiums will depend on auditable LCA data and 24/7 matching, not labels alone.

India’s aluminium scrap demand shifts pressure to Europe and the Middle East

Aluminium Scrap

India’s aluminium scrap demand faces new constraints from US tariffs. India’s aluminium scrap demand now pivots toward Europe and the Middle East. India’s aluminium scrap demand will stay import-reliant despite recycling goals.

Trade tensions squeeze US flows; buyers pivot to new lanes

India remains a top global buyer of aluminium scrap. Imports reached 1.74mn t in 2024 after a 2023 peak of 1.83mn t. US tariffs now disrupt this flow. Washington lifted India’s import tariff to 50pc, doubling the previous rate. As a result, US shipments to India are sliding. First-half 2025 exports totaled 182,000t, tracking 364,000t for the year. That pace marks an 11pc drop versus 2024.

China now rivals India as a leading importer. Both could end near 1.72mn t in 2025 at current run-rates. However, China’s vast secondary capacity exceeds 11mn t/yr. India’s capacity is only ~2mn t/yr. Therefore, imports cover about 90pc of India’s scrap needs. With US supply tightening, India will lean harder on Europe and the Middle East.

Europe, UK and Gulf suppliers face tighter balances

Europe already ships sizable volumes to India. The EU sent 291,000t in 2024, while the UK shipped 162,000t. Middle East flows reached 361,000t, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Consequently, stronger Indian bids may lift delivered prices and drain local availability. European secondary smelters could face higher feed costs and sporadic gaps. Calls to restrict EU scrap exports will likely intensify into 2026.

Policy plans will not change the near-term math. India’s “Vision 2047” targets 2mn t/yr domestic scrap collection by 2030. Authorities aim for 7mn t/yr by 2047 through closed-loop systems. They also plan to raise the recycling rate to 56pc from ~30pc. Meanwhile, primary aluminium ambitions rise toward 37mn t/yr from 4.2mn t/yr. Yet these goals need time, capital and logistics. Until then, import dependence will persist.

Market participants should prepare for tighter arbitrage. European yards may see faster turnarounds and firmer bids. Gulf exporters could prioritize long-term contracts with Indian consumers. Freight, quality premia, and contamination rules will matter more. Price risk will rise if US-India talks stall and tariffs remain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Watch three levers: US-India negotiations, EU debate on scrap export rules, and India’s collection build-out pace. If Europe curbs exports, India will compete harder in the Gulf and Africa. Near-term, feed scarcity supports scrap premia and squeezes secondary margins outside India.

US UAE Gallium Production Partnership Challenges China's Critical Minerals Monopoly

EGA

US UAE gallium production partnership emerged through a strategic alliance between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), Tawazun Council, and RTX Corporation. The US UAE gallium production initiative targets extraction at EGA's Al Taweelah alumina refinery, representing a significant diversification effort away from Chinese-dominated gallium supply chains for critical defense and aerospace applications.

Strategic Partnership Addresses Defense Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

US UAE gallium production collaboration directly responds to China's dual-use export restrictions affecting defense contractors. RTX subsidiary Raytheon faces Chinese export bans, forcing the aerospace giant to secure alternative gallium sources for semiconductor, radio frequency device, and LED manufacturing. The memorandum of understanding establishes an exploratory framework for domestic gallium production capabilities.

Meanwhile, EGA and RTX plan additional agreements to conduct comprehensive feasibility studies for the Al Taweelah facility integration. The partnership leverages EGA's existing alumina refining infrastructure while providing RTX guaranteed access to critical materials. This strategic alignment addresses both companies' objectives of supply chain security and market diversification.

Gallium Applications Drive Defense Industry Demand

However, gallium's strategic importance extends beyond traditional aluminum production into advanced technology applications. The critical mineral serves essential roles in semiconductor manufacturing, radio frequency devices, light emitting diodes, and consumer electronics. Defense and aerospace sectors particularly depend on gallium for advanced radar systems, satellite communications, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Therefore, establishing UAE-based gallium production creates alternative supply sources for Western defense contractors facing Chinese export restrictions. The Al Taweelah location provides geographic diversification while leveraging established Middle Eastern industrial infrastructure. This positioning reduces dependence on single-source suppliers in geopolitically sensitive regions.

Regional Industrial Diversification Strategy

Furthermore, the gallium partnership aligns with broader UAE economic diversification initiatives beyond traditional hydrocarbon sectors. EGA simultaneously announced plans for joint anode manufacturing development with Chinese producer Sunstone, demonstrating comprehensive industrial expansion strategies. These partnerships position Abu Dhabi as a regional critical minerals processing hub.

As a result, the US-UAE collaboration exemplifies how allied nations coordinate critical minerals supply chain resilience against export control weaponization. The partnership model combines American technology expertise with Middle Eastern industrial capacity and geographic positioning. Such arrangements increasingly define international approaches to critical materials security in contested global markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US-UAE gallium production partnership exemplifies strategic alliance formation in response to China's critical minerals export controls, demonstrating how defense contractors and allied governments collaborate to establish alternative supply chains. This initiative represents a broader trend of geographic diversification in critical materials processing, positioning the UAE as a key intermediary in Western supply chain security strategies.

EGA Aluminum Plant Investment of $4 Billion Transforms US Production Landscape

EGA Aluminum Ingot

EGA aluminum plant investment reaches $4 billion for a new primary aluminum production facility in Oklahoma, targeting 2030 startup. The massive EGA aluminum plant will produce up to 600,000 metric tonnes annually, nearly doubling US aluminum production capacity as the country produced only 670,000 tonnes in 2024 according to the US Geological Survey.

Strategic Timing Leverages US Trade Protection Measures

EGA aluminum plant development benefits from favorable US trade policies including the current 25% tariff on aluminum imports. This protective measure creates significant cost advantages for domestic production compared to foreign competitors. The timing aligns perfectly with American reshoring initiatives and critical materials supply chain security priorities.

Meanwhile, EGA expects construction to commence by late 2026, pending completion of feasibility studies and long-term power supply contract negotiations. Tax credit arrangements represent another crucial component of the project's financial structure, demonstrating the importance of government incentives for large-scale industrial investments in the current economic environment.

UAE Company Expands North American Footprint

However, Emirates Global Aluminium brings substantial international expertise to the US aluminum market through its global production portfolio. The company owns primary and secondary aluminum projects worldwide, including Minnesota-based Spectro Alloys acquired through a majority stake purchase in August 2024. This existing US presence provides operational knowledge for the Oklahoma facility development.

Therefore, EGA's investment strategy demonstrates confidence in long-term US aluminum demand growth across automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. The 600,000-tonne annual capacity represents nearly 90% of current total US aluminum production, highlighting the transformative scale of this single project for domestic supply chains.

Presidential Announcement Signals Strategic Partnership

Furthermore, President Trump announced EGA's planned investment during his Abu Dhabi visit this week alongside $200 billion in other commercial agreements. This high-profile endorsement underscores the strategic importance of UAE-US economic cooperation in critical materials sectors. The announcement timing suggests coordinated efforts to strengthen bilateral trade relationships.

As a result, the Oklahoma facility positions EGA to capture growing North American aluminum demand while reducing US import dependence. The project's scale and timeline align with infrastructure modernization requirements and defense industry priorities that demand reliable domestic aluminum supplies for national security applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA's $4 billion Oklahoma investment exemplifies how international aluminum producers capitalize on US trade protection and reshoring trends to establish strategic manufacturing footholds. The project's potential to nearly double US aluminum production capacity demonstrates the scale of investment required to meaningfully impact critical materials supply chain resilience in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Oman Copper Concentrate Plant Secures $270 Million Financing for 115,000 t/yr Capacity

Oman Copper Mining

Oman's state-owned Minerals Development Oman (MDO) has successfully secured $270 million in financing for its ambitious copper concentrate plant project. The financing agreements, signed with regional and local banks, will fund the construction of Oman's largest integrated copper concentrate plant through MDO subsidiary Mazoon Mining.

Strategic Location and Production Capacity Drive Regional Copper Supply

The copper concentrate plant will be strategically positioned in the Wilayat of Yanqul in Al Dhahirah Governorate, near Oman's border with the United Arab Emirates. This location provides excellent access to regional markets and transportation networks. The facility will process approximately 2.5 million tonnes of ore annually, producing 115,000 tonnes of copper concentrate with 21.5% copper content.

Meanwhile, the project's ore reserves total approximately 22.9 million tonnes of copper ore, which will be extracted from five open-pit mining operations. This substantial reserve base ensures long-term production sustainability for the copper concentrate plant operations.

Local Partnerships Strengthen Oman's Mining Infrastructure

MDO has strategically partnered with local contractors for construction and service agreements, supporting domestic economic development. These partnerships demonstrate Oman's commitment to building local capacity in the mining sector. As a result, the project will create significant employment opportunities and knowledge transfer within the country's mining industry.

The copper concentrate plant represents a major milestone in Oman's diversification strategy away from oil dependence. Therefore, this investment strengthens the country's position in the global copper supply chain while developing critical mineral processing capabilities.

However, the project's success will depend on global copper market conditions and operational efficiency. The facility's 115,000 tonnes annual capacity positions it as a significant regional copper concentrate producer, contributing to Middle East mining development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This $270 million investment signals Oman's serious commitment to becoming a major player in the regional copper market, particularly as global demand for copper continues rising due to renewable energy and electric vehicle transitions. The strategic location near the UAE border positions the facility to serve both domestic and export markets effectively.

ADNOC’s Al-Jaber Shifts Tone on Climate: “Energy Is the Solution”

ADNOC

From Cop-28 climate diplomacy to Houston’s energy realism, al-Jaber emphasizes hydrocarbons’ future and new U.S. investments.

ADNOC chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, presented a new stance on the climate-energy debate. Just two years after urging oil executives to embrace decarbonization, al-Jaber declared, "Energy realism is taking center stage" and framed the energy industry as “the solution, not the problem.”

Al-Jaber’s remarks mark a notable shift from his 2023 statements, when he stressed the oil and gas sector’s responsibility to cut emissions and aid in global decarbonization. Back then, as president of the UN Cop-28 climate summit in the UAE, he promoted a call to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

From Responsibility to Realism

In Houston, al-Jaber described his earlier climate warnings as part of a strategy to bring “realism and pragmatism” into climate dialogue. He also claimed the climate narrative had been “hijacked” and required correction. “We succeeded in making the energy industry part of the solution,” he said, reflecting a broader effort to reframe hydrocarbons as essential to the global energy transition.

At Cop-28, instead of endorsing a fossil fuel phase-out, al-Jaber led a compromise that called for a gradual transition. Now, he suggests the sector is driving climate solutions, not delaying them.

ADNOC’s XRG Targets U.S. Natural Gas and Petrochemicals

Al-Jaber also introduced ADNOC’s new energy investment arm, XRG, as a vehicle for major U.S. investments. He called U.S. energy markets an “absolute imperative” and revealed that XRG will soon announce large-scale investments, especially in natural gas infrastructure and petrochemicals.

Last year, ADNOC took a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s hydrogen project at Baytown, Texas. Al-Jaber said similar deals are on the table, suggesting a strategic expansion of ADNOC’s low-carbon portfolio via U.S. partnerships.

The policy shift in Washington, where climate change was recently described as a “side effect” of development by U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright, has created a more favorable investment climate for fossil fuel-focused ventures.

Al-Jaber’s evolving rhetoric signals a realignment of climate ambition and hydrocarbon strategy, positioning Middle Eastern producers as both investors and influencers in the next phase of energy transition.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline in 2024

US Aluminum

Imports Drop 6%, Led by Decreases from the UAE, Australia, and South Africa

The United States saw a 6% decline in its primary aluminum imports in 2024, with a total of 3.917 million metric tonnes (mt), down from 4.158 million mt in 2023. The drop was notably driven by significant reductions in imports from key suppliers such as the UAE, Australia, and South Africa, as reported by US customs data.

Declines from Key Suppliers and Growth from Canada

Imports from the UAE, the second-largest supplier of unwrought aluminum to the US, fell by 23% to 435,200 tonnes in 2024. Australia's imports dropped sharply by 127,600 tonnes, falling to 82,400 tonnes. This decline caused Australia to drop from being the third-largest supplier to the sixth position in just one year. Additionally, imports from South Africa fell by 30,000 tonnes, reaching 131,600 tonnes in 2024.

In contrast, imports from Canada, the top supplier, rose by 91,800 tonnes, totaling 2.744 million tonnes in 2024. This increase helped offset some of the losses from other countries. Canada's share of total US aluminum imports grew to 70% in 2024, up from 64% in 2023, solidifying its dominance in the US market.

Tariff Concerns and Emerging Suppliers

The US is facing potential tariff issues, as former President Donald Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all imports from Canada. This could drive up prices for aluminum and aluminum products in the US, given Canada's role in supplying nearly a third of the US's aluminum needs.

On the other hand, imports from newer suppliers saw an uptick. India, now the seventh-largest supplier, sent 21,100 tonnes more aluminum, bringing its total to 73,000 tonnes in 2024. Argentina, a new third-largest supplier, saw a significant increase, sending 16,700 tonnes more to the US, bringing its total to 174,800 tonnes in 2024.

December 2024 imports also reflected these trends. The US imported 306,600 tonnes of unwrought aluminum, down by 14,700 tonnes compared to the previous year. Imports from Canada decreased by 20,300 tonnes, but Argentina helped balance the drop with an increase of 8,300 tonnes, reaching 30,200 tonnes in December.

Japan's Primary Aluminum Imports Rise Despite Weak Domestic Demand

Japan's Aluminum

Japan's primary aluminum imports increased by 1.9pc in 2024, reaching 1.05mn t. This rise occurred despite a decline in domestic demand from key sectors.   

Shifting Import Sources Offset Russian Decline

Australia remained Japan's largest aluminum supplier, accounting for over 28pc of imports. Brazil followed, contributing around 16pc. Notably, imports from the UAE and India surged, offsetting a significant drop in Russian shipments. The UAE saw a 14pc increase to 107,000t, while India's deliveries rose by 25pc to 103,000t. Conversely, Russian shipments plummeted by nearly 70pc to 26,000t, following Japan's import ban on certain Russian aluminum products in April 2023.   

Domestic Demand and Secondary Output Decline

Domestic aluminum product demand in Japan remained weak due to reduced activity in the building, construction, and automotive sectors. Building and construction consumption fell by 7.7pc, and automotive demand dropped by 4.1pc. Total aluminum demand decreased by 3.3pc. Japan's secondary aluminum output also declined by 4.9pc, leading to a 5.3pc decrease in aluminum scrap imports. The reduced domestic secondary output may have contributed to the increased primary aluminum imports, despite overall demand weakening.