Volkswagen Osnabruck Plant Could Shift to Defence Use as EV Transition Slows

Volkswagen

Volkswagen Osnabruck plant may be repurposed for defence manufacturing after vehicle production ends in 2027, highlighting how weaker-than-expected electric vehicle demand is reshaping Germany’s automotive industrial base.

Volkswagen Osnabruck plant is already scheduled to stop car production under the company’s wider restructuring plan. Volkswagen is now discussing possible future use of the site with defence companies as it seeks to retain jobs and utilise existing industrial capacity.

Volkswagen Osnabruck plant currently produces the T-Roc Cabrio, a niche combustion-engine model. Its limited role in Volkswagen’s future EV portfolio has made the facility more vulnerable as the group reduces domestic manufacturing capacity.

The potential shift toward defence also reflects a broader change in European industry. Automotive companies are increasingly examining alternative uses for factories that no longer fit slower and less predictable electrification plans.

EV Weakness Forces Volkswagen to Rationalise German Capacity

Volkswagen is reducing roughly 40% of its domestic production capacity by 2028 as it restructures its German operations.

The company has already closed or repurposed other facilities and is moving models between plants to reduce costs and improve utilisation.

Weak utilisation has become a central problem across Europe’s automotive sector. EV manufacturing capacity expanded rapidly based on expectations of stronger demand, but sales growth has proved uneven across markets.

That has created a mismatch between factory capacity and actual vehicle demand. Carmakers are responding through production pauses, model transfers, workforce reductions and plant closures.

Volkswagen’s decision to halt ID.4 production in the US also illustrates the uncertainty surrounding EV demand outside Europe.

For suppliers, lower vehicle production can affect demand for aluminium, copper, electrical steel, battery materials and automotive-grade specialty metals.

The restructuring therefore reaches beyond vehicle assembly. Capacity changes at major automakers can ripple through entire regional manufacturing and materials supply chains.

Defence Manufacturing Offers Alternative Use for Industrial Assets

Repurposing Osnabruck for defence could allow Volkswagen to preserve skilled labour, manufacturing infrastructure and regional industrial activity after passenger vehicle production ends.

Automotive plants already possess many capabilities relevant to defence manufacturing, including metal fabrication, machining, welding, coating, assembly and quality control.

However, defence production requires different certifications, security requirements and product qualifications, meaning conversion would not be immediate.

The strategic logic is still strong. European governments are increasing defence spending while automotive manufacturers face underused capacity.

This creates an opportunity to redirect factories toward sectors with stronger demand and government-backed procurement.

For Germany, the shift could also help preserve industrial employment while supporting domestic defence manufacturing capacity.

The broader implication is that Europe’s industrial transition may become more diversified than originally expected. Instead of moving directly from combustion vehicles to EVs, some manufacturing assets may migrate into defence, aerospace and other strategic sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Volkswagen’s Osnabruck review shows that Europe’s industrial transition is no longer only about electrification. As EV demand disappoints, defence and other strategic industries may become alternative destinations for underused automotive manufacturing capacity.

BYD EV Sales Recover in May as Export Demand Offsets China Weakness

BYD

BYD EV sales returned to year-on-year growth in May as surging overseas demand offset continued weakness in China. The company sold 383,453 new energy vehicles during the month, up 0.3% from a year earlier.

BYD EV sales had declined for consecutive months since October 2025 as domestic policy changes, weaker incentives and government pressure against aggressive price competition weighed on China’s automotive market.

BYD EV sales are now increasingly dependent on international markets. Exports jumped to 160,644 units in May from 89,047 a year earlier, showing how rapidly the company is building a global sales base.

The recovery also highlights a broader shift in China’s EV industry. Domestic competition remains intense, while manufacturers are increasingly using overseas markets to absorb expanding production capacity.

Exports Become BYD’s Main Growth Engine

BYD sold 376,990 passenger NEVs in May and another 6,463 commercial vehicles. Battery electric vehicle sales fell by 2.8% year on year to 198,674 units, while plug-in hybrid sales rose by 3.3% to 178,316 units.

The split shows that plug-in hybrids continue to play an important role in BYD’s product mix. PHEVs can appeal to buyers that want electrification without relying entirely on charging infrastructure.

China classifies battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles as new energy vehicles. For battery material demand, however, the distinction matters because BEVs generally require larger battery packs than PHEVs.

BYD’s January-May NEV sales fell by 20% year on year to 1.4mn units. The decline followed government and industry efforts to reduce destructive price competition in China’s vehicle market.

The rollback of vehicle purchase tax incentives from 1 January also weakened domestic demand. At the same time, major automakers have committed to paying suppliers within 60 days to improve financial stability across the supply chain.

Exports are increasingly compensating for that pressure. Brazil has become one of BYD’s most important international markets and is now the largest destination for Chinese NEV exports.

Easing import restrictions in markets including Canada could provide additional export opportunities. This strengthens the case for Chinese automakers to continue expanding assembly, logistics and distribution networks overseas.

EV Export Growth Supports Battery Materials Demand

Higher oil prices have also improved the relative economics of electric vehicles. Rising crude prices since the escalation of Middle East tensions have increased operating costs for combustion-engine vehicles and strengthened EV competitiveness.

This can support demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials if EV exports continue to rise. However, the material impact will depend on the mix between BEVs and smaller-battery plug-in hybrids.

BYD’s shift also matters for the wider automotive metals market. Growing EV output supports copper demand through motors, wiring and power electronics, while alu

minium remains important for lightweight structures and battery enclosures.

The company has been fully committed to electrified vehicles since ending production of gasoline-only cars in March 2022. BYD sold 4.626mn NEVs in 2025, up 8.3% from the previous year.

The challenge now is geographic balance. Domestic growth is slowing, while overseas markets are becoming more important to utilisation rates and future production growth.

That shift could accelerate localisation outside China. As export volumes rise, BYD and other Chinese automakers may increasingly invest in overseas assembly and regional supply chains to manage tariffs, logistics and local-content rules.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BYD’s May recovery shows that China’s EV growth story is becoming increasingly export-driven. For battery metals, the key variable is no longer only Chinese vehicle sales, but how quickly Chinese manufacturers can convert overseas demand into sustained BEV and PHEV production growth.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

Automotive Raw Material Supply Chains Hit Localisation Limits

Automotive

Automotive raw material supply chains are becoming the main constraint on electric vehicle localisation as carmakers seek more control over strategic components. Automakers want regional supply chains, but battery metals, rare earths and processed inputs still depend on global mining and refining networks.

Automotive raw material supply chains have shifted from pure efficiency toward resilience, security and geopolitical risk management. The industry is no longer trying only to minimise cost. It is trying to protect production from export controls, licensing delays, trade restrictions and raw material shortages.

Automotive raw material supply chains therefore cannot be fully localised by assembling batteries, motors or electronics closer to vehicle plants. The deeper constraint sits upstream, where lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and rare earth materials remain tied to global extraction and processing capacity.

The result is a more selective supply-chain model. Automakers will regionalise the components they can control, while still relying on global raw materials for the minerals and refined products they cannot replace quickly.

EV Localisation Still Depends on Global Critical Minerals

Jaguar Land Rover has decided to control three critical parts of electric propulsion: battery assembly, electric drive units and energy management systems. This gives the company more control over the final systems that define EV performance.

However, vertical integration has limits. Even if an automaker controls battery assembly or electric drive units, it may not control the lithium chemicals, nickel sulphate, cobalt, manganese, graphite or rare earth magnets inside those systems.

Permanent magnet motors remain one of the clearest pressure points. Electric drive units depend on rare earth materials that are still heavily exposed to Chinese processing, magnet production and export licensing.

Obtaining magnet raw materials from China has become more difficult from a licensing perspective. This shows how export controls can affect vehicle production even when the final assembly line is located in Europe or the US.

Battery supply chains face the same structural problem. Automakers can localise pack assembly, module production and software integration, but raw material exposure remains global.

Lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese supply depends on mine locations, refining capacity, chemical conversion and government policy. These inputs cannot be made local simply by building a battery plant near an auto factory.

This changes the meaning of automotive localisation. The next phase will be less about full independence and more about reducing exposure to single-country bottlenecks.

Recycling and Traceability Become Strategic Tools

Critical minerals recycling is becoming a strategic issue for automakers, not only an environmental goal. Black mass recovery can eventually return lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and other materials into the supply chain.

Recycling can reduce raw material exposure over time. But it depends on enough end-of-life batteries, reliable collection systems, safe transport, processing capacity and customer acceptance of recovered materials.

The UK’s critical minerals strategy reflects this reality. Domestic production, partner-country supply agreements and recycling can improve resilience, but full self-sufficiency is not realistic.

That point matters for manufacturers. Supply security will depend on diversified sourcing, trusted partners, recycling loops and traceable material flows rather than a complete break from global markets.

The shift will also affect pricing. Materials may increasingly carry value based on origin, regulatory acceptability, sustainability documentation and licensing risk.

A battery metal or rare earth input from a secure and traceable source may command a premium over lower-cost material with higher geopolitical or compliance risk.

For automakers, the strategic challenge is clear. They must control more of the EV system while accepting that critical mineral supply will remain globally contested.

For metals suppliers, the opportunity is also clear. Producers that can offer traceable, compliant and secure supply will become more valuable to automotive customers than suppliers competing only on price.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Automakers are learning that EV localisation stops where raw material dependence begins. The winners in automotive supply security will be those that connect local manufacturing with diversified minerals, recycling capacity and credible traceability.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Lithium-Ion Battery Copper Foil Shipments Surge as Ultra-Thin Products Gain Share

Copper Foil

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments rose sharply in 2025 as global battery production expanded and manufacturers shifted toward thinner materials to reduce copper costs. Global shipments reached 1.302mn t, up 41.7% from 2024, according to Chinese research institute EV Tank.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil demand remains closely tied to electric vehicle and energy storage growth. Copper foil is a key current collector in lithium-ion batteries, making it essential to cell performance, energy density and manufacturing cost.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments were dominated by China, which accounted for 82.9% of global deliveries in 2025. EV Tank expects global shipments to reach 2.615mn t by 2030, implying continued expansion as battery output scales.

The product mix changed quickly during the year. The share of 8μm foil declined, while 6μm remained the mainstream product and accounted for more than 70% of total shipments.

Ultra-Thin Foil Gains Momentum on Copper Cost Pressure

Ultra-thin copper foil gained share as battery producers looked for ways to reduce copper input costs. Persistently high global copper prices pushed cell manufacturers to use thinner foil while maintaining battery performance.

The combined share of 5μm and 4.5μm ultra-thin foil rose to 24% in 2025. This is a major shift for a material category that requires tighter production control, better surface quality and stronger consistency.

Thinner copper foil can help reduce battery weight and improve energy density. It also lowers the amount of copper used per cell, which becomes increasingly important when copper prices remain elevated.

EV Tank expects 5μm and thinner foil to become a key material for high-end batteries. This reflects the industry’s move toward lighter, higher-energy-density cell designs.

However, thinner foil also raises manufacturing difficulty. Producers must control pinholes, tensile strength, elongation, surface roughness and coating compatibility more precisely.

That technical barrier could separate higher-end suppliers from lower-cost producers. As battery customers shift toward thinner grades, qualification and process reliability will become more important than simple capacity.

China Leads Supply as Competition Intensifies

China’s 82.9% share of global shipments shows its dominant role in battery copper foil supply. The country has built large-scale capacity around its lithium-ion battery ecosystem, supported by domestic EV, energy storage and cell manufacturing growth.

Competition intensified in 2025 as the market recovered and producers brought earlier-built capacity on line. This created a more fluid ranking among suppliers.

Longdian Wason ranked first with a 12.2% market share. Huachuang New Material followed after capacity ramp-ups lifted output and sales.

Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology ranked third and fourth, respectively. Seven companies in the top 10 changed positions during the year, showing how quickly capacity, customer access and product mix are reshaping the sector.

Battery makers also increased procurement from second-tier suppliers to improve supply stability. This suggests buyers are trying to diversify supplier bases rather than rely only on leading producers.

For copper markets, the trend is strategically important. Battery copper foil growth creates a direct link between copper demand and battery technology. But the move toward ultra-thin foil also means battery growth will not translate into copper demand on a simple one-to-one basis.

The sector is therefore entering a more technical phase. Volume growth remains strong, but material intensity, foil thickness, supplier qualification and copper price pressure will all shape future demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper foil market shows how battery growth can lift copper demand while also forcing material thrift. High copper prices are pushing battery makers toward thinner foil, making technology and process control as important as raw capacity.

Europe EV Growth Rises as Incentives Mask Fragile Demand Signals

Europe EV

Europe EV growth accelerated last month as battery electric vehicle sales rose by 41%, supported by tax incentives, fleet buying and carmakers’ efforts to meet emissions targets. The increase looks strong on paper, but the drivers of demand remain uneven across markets.

Battery electric vehicle sales outpaced plug-in hybrid sales, which rose by 32% across the EU, EFTA and UK. Regular hybrid vehicle sales increased by 15%, while petrol and diesel sales continued to decline across major European markets.

Europe EV growth was strongest in large markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Spain again stood out for plug-in hybrid growth, showing that national policy, consumer economics and model availability continue to shape adoption differently.

The headline growth is important for battery metals and automotive supply chains. Higher BEV sales support long-term demand for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets.

Incentives and Fleet Orders Drive the Near-Term Recovery

Tax policy remains one of the main engines behind Europe EV growth. Several member states entered the year with revised company car rules, income-linked subsidies or accelerated depreciation schemes for electric vehicles.

These measures have favoured fleet buyers more than private consumers. Corporate fleets can respond faster to tax incentives, depreciation benefits and emissions rules because they buy vehicles in larger volumes and plan replacements more systematically.

France has tightened the link between EV support and income. Germany’s recovery has been supported by targeted incentives reintroduced in January after earlier policy volatility disrupted demand.

This matters because fleet-led growth can be less stable than broad consumer adoption. Fleet orders can lift sales quickly, but private demand is still sensitive to price, charging access, financing costs and residual value concerns.

Carmakers are also working to meet CO₂ limits. This creates another demand driver that is not purely consumer-led. Automakers may use pricing, leasing and fleet channels to push EV registrations when regulatory targets tighten.

For metals markets, the distinction matters. Stable private adoption creates more predictable battery material demand. Incentive-driven fleet demand can be more volatile if policy changes or budget support weakens.

Oil Shock Adds Uncertainty to EV Demand Outlook

Higher oil prices after the US-Iran war have revived the question of whether fuel costs are pushing consumers toward electric vehicles. However, the evidence is not yet clear.

EV demand was already rising in key markets before the oil shock. Early-year growth appears to reflect incentives, fleet orders and emissions compliance more than a direct consumer shift caused by higher fuel costs.

There is also a timing lag. Vehicle orders usually appear in sales data several weeks later, and delivery times vary by model and country. Any clear oil-price effect may not appear until June or July.

This caution is important because monthly EV data can be distorted by local registration patterns. The UK, for example, often sees a March registration spike because of its plate change system.

The broader strategic message remains clear. If Europe wants to reduce exposure to oil shocks, it needs consistent carbon rules, pollution-based taxation, charging infrastructure and long-term industrial policy.

Stop-start subsidies can create temporary sales jumps, but they can also damage market confidence. Stable rules are more useful for automakers, battery producers, charging companies and metals suppliers.

Europe EV growth therefore remains real but fragile. The region is moving away from petrol and diesel, yet the pace still depends heavily on policy design and fleet purchasing behaviour.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe EV growth is not yet a clean demand signal for battery metals because incentives and fleet buying are doing much of the work. The stronger long-term signal will come when private buyers adopt EVs without policy volatility or fuel-price panic.

Nemak Austrian Die-Cast Facility Closure Signals European Footprint Consolidation

Nemak

Nemak Austrian die-cast facility closure plans show how the Mexican automotive die-caster is moving quickly to rationalise its enlarged manufacturing network after acquiring Georg Fischer’s castings unit. The company plans to end production at its Herzogenburg site within the next 12 months.

Nemak Austrian die-cast facility output has been affected by persistently low production volumes and weaker market conditions. Nemak said it will meet customer obligations by transferring production to other locations.

Nemak Austrian die-cast facility closure is part of a wider portfolio review following the February acquisition of GF’s castings business. The deal expanded Nemak’s global footprint to 53 plants across 15 countries.

GF Integration Puts Utilisation and Profitability First

Nemak is now focused on improving utilisation across its enlarged production base. Chief executive Herve Boyer said footprint adjustment is on the company’s agenda and that Nemak is actively working on it.

The Herzogenburg closure may not be the only reshuffling. Nemak is assessing how to consolidate production volumes and improve profitability across its locations.

This matters because automotive die casting is highly sensitive to plant utilisation. Low production volumes can quickly pressure margins when fixed costs, labour, energy and tooling investments remain high.

The closure also reflects broader pressure in Europe’s automotive supply chain. Slower vehicle demand, uneven electric vehicle adoption and cost inflation have forced suppliers to review capacity, especially in higher-cost manufacturing regions.

Automotive Casting Network Shifts Toward Higher-Value Sites

The GF acquisition gave Nemak eight additional manufacturing facilities. It also gave the company control of GF’s new $184mn facility in Augusta, Georgia, which is expected to start production in 2027.

That US site may become more strategically important as automakers localise supply chains and expand North American production. It also gives Nemak a stronger position in a market where aluminium die casting remains central to lightweight vehicle structures and electric vehicle components.

For Nemak, the challenge is balancing customer coverage with operational efficiency. Closing underused capacity can protect margins, but production transfers must avoid disruption for automakers.

The decision also highlights a wider industry trend. Automotive suppliers are not only adding capacity for electrification. They are also cutting or relocating weaker assets to align with changing vehicle platforms, regional demand and cost structures.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nemak’s Herzogenburg closure shows that automotive casting growth is becoming more selective. Suppliers with global footprints must now decide which plants support future EV and lightweighting demand, and which sites no longer fit the cost structure.

Global Solid-State Electrolyte Shipments Surge as Semi-Solid Batteries Scale

Solid state electrolyte

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are rising rapidly as semi-solid batteries move toward vehicle adoption and full solid-state battery commercialisation advances. Chinese research institute EV Tank said shipments reached 4,100t in 2025, more than doubling from a year earlier.

The increase marks an important early-stage signal for the battery materials industry. Electrolytes are one of the core materials that determine the energy density, safety and commercial viability of solid-state batteries.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are still small compared with conventional lithium-ion battery materials. However, the growth rate shows that downstream producers are beginning to prepare for larger semi-solid and solid-state battery output.

EV Tank expects global solid-state electrolyte shipments to reach 229,000t by 2030. That would imply a compound annual growth rate of more than 120% from 2025 to 2030, making electrolytes one of the fastest-growing segments in advanced battery materials.

The forecast reflects both technological progress and industrial positioning. Battery producers, automakers and materials companies are now investing ahead of expected demand from electric vehicles, energy storage systems and high-end electronics.

Semi-Solid Batteries Create the First Commercial Demand Base

Semi-solid batteries are likely to provide the first meaningful demand base for solid-state battery electrolytes. EV Tank expects these batteries to begin vehicle adoption from 2026, ahead of full solid-state battery mass production.

This timing matters because semi-solid batteries can act as a bridge technology. They offer improved safety and performance compared with conventional liquid-electrolyte batteries, while avoiding some of the most difficult technical barriers facing all-solid-state cells.

Semi-solid battery growth is already supporting electrolyte shipments. These products still use electrolyte systems that may differ from fully solid-state designs, but they create early commercial demand for sulphide, oxide, polymer, halide and composite electrolyte materials.

Full solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale mass production from 2027. That stage will likely remain limited at first because large-scale production still faces technical, cost and qualification challenges.

The market therefore looks likely to develop in phases. Semi-solid batteries will drive early electrolyte consumption, while full solid-state batteries will gradually expand once production processes, interfaces and reliability improve.

Electrolytes are central to this transition. They influence ion conductivity, safety, cycle life, energy density and compatibility with electrodes. Any weakness in electrolyte performance can limit the entire battery system.

This is why electrolyte development is becoming a strategic battleground. Battery makers cannot scale solid-state technology only by changing cell design. They need stable, high-quality electrolyte materials that can be produced consistently at industrial scale.

Capacity expansion is accelerating in response. EV Tank expects producers with annual electrolyte capacity at the thousand-tonne level to emerge within the next one to two years.

That would mark a shift from laboratory and pilot-scale material production toward early industrial supply. It would also create a more competitive market among electrolyte producers seeking qualification with battery manufacturers.

For battery materials suppliers, this creates a new growth category. Electrolytes may become a higher-value segment within the battery chain, especially if producers can meet strict requirements for purity, particle control, stability and conductivity.

For automakers, the key issue is reliability. Vehicle adoption requires materials that can perform under harsh cycling, temperature and safety conditions. This means electrolyte suppliers must pass long qualification cycles before volume demand can fully develop.

Technology Routes and Cost Cuts Shape the Scale-Up

Solid-state battery electrolyte technology remains diversified, especially in semi-solid batteries. Sulphide, oxide, polymer and halide routes are developing in parallel, while both single-electrolyte and composite-electrolyte solutions are being adopted.

This diversity shows that the industry has not yet settled on a single dominant material route. Different technologies offer different advantages in conductivity, stability, manufacturability, cost and safety.

Sulphide electrolytes currently dominate the roadmap for full solid-state batteries. They offer high ionic conductivity and are widely viewed as one of the most promising routes for high-performance battery cells.

However, sulphide systems also face challenges. They require careful handling, moisture control and interface engineering. These factors can raise production complexity and slow commercial scale-up.

Oxide electrolytes offer strong chemical and thermal stability, but they can face processing and interface resistance challenges. Polymer electrolytes offer manufacturing flexibility, but often struggle with conductivity at room temperature. Halide electrolytes are gaining interest because of their electrochemical stability and potential compatibility with high-voltage cathodes.

Composite electrolyte solutions may become increasingly important. By combining material systems, producers can try to balance conductivity, flexibility, stability and manufacturability.

Cost reduction is also becoming a major commercial driver. EV Tank said improvements in material quality and production processes lowered costs across several technology routes in 2025.

Sulphide electrolyte costs fell by more than 35% during the year. This is significant because cost remains one of the biggest obstacles to wider solid-state battery adoption.

Lower electrolyte costs improve the competitiveness of solid-state batteries against conventional lithium-ion technologies. They also make it easier for battery makers to test commercial deployment in premium vehicles, high-performance energy storage and other demanding applications.

Still, cost reduction alone will not guarantee rapid commercialisation. The industry must also solve interface stability, dendrite control, manufacturing yield, pressure management and long-term cycle reliability.

This explains why some major automakers remain cautious. BYD chief scientist Lian Yubo has said solid-state batteries still face core technical bottlenecks and that liquid and solid-state batteries should develop as complementary technologies.

Great Wall Motor also does not expect large-scale commercialisation of all-solid-state batteries in the near term. This caution suggests that the market may grow strongly, but unevenly.

The commercial pathway is therefore not a simple replacement of liquid batteries. Conventional lithium-ion batteries, semi-solid batteries and full solid-state batteries are likely to coexist for years, each serving different cost and performance segments.

This has important implications for materials demand. Solid-state growth could increase demand for lithium metal, high-nickel cathodes, sulphur-based materials, oxides, halides and specialty chemical precursors. But it may not immediately reduce demand for conventional electrolytes, separators or liquid battery components.

The forecast of 229,000t of global solid-state electrolyte shipments by 2030 points to a large materials opportunity. But the final market size will depend on how quickly automakers adopt semi-solid batteries and how successfully full solid-state batteries move from demonstration to reliable mass production.

For supply chains, qualification will be decisive. Battery makers will not buy electrolyte materials only because capacity exists. They will need stable quality, competitive pricing, proven performance and reliable long-term supply.

For policymakers, solid-state batteries are increasingly tied to advanced manufacturing and energy security. Countries that control electrolyte technology and battery production could gain strategic advantage in next-generation electric vehicles and storage systems.

For the metals market, the key point is that battery innovation changes materials demand before full commercial adoption arrives. Producers begin scaling supply years before the technology reaches mass-market vehicles, creating early demand signals and investment cycles.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments therefore offer a useful indicator of where advanced battery manufacturing is moving. The numbers remain small, but the growth curve is steep enough to attract capital, competition and supply-chain restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Solid-state electrolyte growth shows that next-generation battery competition is moving upstream into materials engineering. The market will expand quickly, but full solid-state batteries still need technical proof before they can reshape EV and energy storage supply chains at scale.

Volkswagen ID.4 Production Halt Shows US EV Demand Pressure

Volkswagen EV

Volkswagen ID.4 production in the US will end as the German automaker shifts its Chattanooga, Tennessee, plant toward higher-volume internal combustion vehicle output. The decision reflects weaker electric vehicle demand in the US and the need to protect North American manufacturing utilisation.

Volkswagen said the EV market continues to challenge the industry and requires measured decisions. The company will stop producing the ID.4 at Chattanooga and begin assembling the all-new second-generation Atlas from mid-April 2026.

Volkswagen ID.4 production has been strategically important because the model is the company’s top-selling EV in the US. However, the ID.4 sold 22,373 units in 2025, far below the Atlas, which sold 71,044 units and remained Volkswagen’s second-best-selling model for the past three years.

The decision shows how automakers are adjusting production footprints as EV adoption slows. US EV sales fell by 27% year on year to 216,300 units in the first quarter, creating pressure on manufacturers to rebalance plant capacity, dealer inventory and product planning.

Chattanooga Shift Prioritises Higher-Volume SUV Demand

The Chattanooga plant will now focus on the second-generation Atlas, a three-row sport utility vehicle with much stronger US sales momentum. This gives Volkswagen a clearer volume base in a market where larger SUVs remain commercially attractive.

The move is not a full retreat from the ID.4. Volkswagen said model-year 2026 ID.4 vehicles will remain available through current inventory, supporting US demand into 2027. The company also plans a future version of the ID.4 for North America, although details have not yet been disclosed.

Still, the production shift is significant. Automakers rarely remove capacity from a model unless demand, margin or manufacturing strategy has changed. In this case, Volkswagen appears to be choosing a higher-volume SUV platform over a slower-moving EV in the near term.

This reflects a wider industry trend. EV demand has become more uneven as consumers respond to vehicle prices, charging access, policy uncertainty and changing incentive structures. Automakers now need more flexible production strategies rather than relying on straight-line EV growth forecasts.

EV Slowdown Could Weigh on Battery Materials Demand

Volkswagen ID.4 production changes also matter for the battery materials supply chain. Lower EV output can reduce near-term demand for lithium, nickel, graphite, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnet materials linked to electric drivetrains and battery systems.

The effect will not come from Volkswagen alone. The bigger issue is that several automakers are reassessing EV production rates in response to slower consumer adoption. If this pattern continues, battery material demand growth may become more volatile than earlier industry forecasts suggested.

For suppliers, the shift creates a timing problem. Many battery, cathode, anode and recycling investments were planned around rapid EV market expansion. Slower model-level output can leave material producers exposed to weaker offtake, lower utilisation and price pressure.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s decision does not eliminate long-term EV demand. It shows that the transition may move in phases, with automakers balancing EVs, hybrids and combustion vehicles depending on regional demand. North America may therefore remain a more mixed powertrain market than China or parts of Europe.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Volkswagen’s ID.4 decision shows that EV strategy is now being tested by real factory economics. The energy transition is still moving forward, but automakers will increasingly prioritise models that protect utilisation, margins and supply-chain stability.

Mercedes Alabama Auto Plant Investment Strengthens US SUV Manufacturing Base

Mercedes Alabama

Mercedes Alabama auto plant investment plans will expand the German automaker’s US production footprint through 2030. Mercedes-Benz announced on 31 March that it would invest $4bn in its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, sport utility vehicle plant.

The investment forms part of a broader $7bn US manufacturing plan. The Alabama facility produces Mercedes SUVs including the GLE, GLS and Maybach GLS, and also assembles the EQE and EQS electric SUVs.

Mercedes Alabama auto plant investment is strategically important because the Tuscaloosa site is already a major export platform. Mercedes exports about 60% of the vehicles produced there, making the plant part of both US manufacturing and global premium SUV supply.

Tuscaloosa Expansion Supports Premium SUV and EV Production

The Tuscaloosa plant has assembled 4.5mn vehicles since opening in 1997. That implies average production of about 160,700 vehicles per year, although Mercedes did not disclose current annual output.

The plant employs 5,800 people and remains one of Mercedes’ most important manufacturing assets outside Germany. The new spending should support capacity, process upgrades and future model flexibility.

Mercedes Alabama auto plant investment also keeps the company positioned in the large SUV segment, where US production offers logistical and market advantages. For electric SUVs, local assembly can also support regional supply-chain strategy and reduce exposure to trade friction.

Automotive Materials Demand Remains Tied to US Assembly Growth

The investment has direct implications for automotive materials demand. SUV production requires large volumes of steel, aluminium, copper, plastics, glass, electronic components and high-performance castings.

Electric SUV production adds another layer. Battery packs, power electronics, motors and charging systems increase exposure to copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, graphite and rare earth magnets.

For suppliers, the key opportunity is not only higher vehicle output. It is the growing materials intensity of electrified premium vehicles, where lightweight structures, electrical systems and battery platforms carry more value per unit.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercedes’ Alabama investment shows that premium automakers still view US manufacturing as a strategic export and electrification base. The materials story will depend on how quickly SUV production shifts toward electric platforms and higher-value lightweight components.

Uber Rivian Robotaxi Partnership Signals New Demand for Lidar Minor Metals

Uber Rivian Robotaxi

Uber Rivian robotaxi partnership plans mark a renewed US push into autonomous vehicle deployment after years of setbacks across the sector. Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to place 50,000 autonomous robotaxis on the Uber platform from 2028, beginning in San Francisco and Miami.

The Uber Rivian robotaxi partnership will start with 10,000 midsize SUVs. The companies can later negotiate up to 40,000 additional vehicles from 2030, with purchases handled by Uber or its fleet partners.

The investment is tied to autonomy milestones, showing that Uber wants exposure to robotaxi growth without rebuilding its own self-driving division. For Rivian, the deal offers potential volume, investor momentum, and a clearer route to monetize its autonomous vehicle technology.

Rivian Autonomy Suite Adds Metals Exposure to Robotaxi Growth

Rivian will supply the robotaxis through its third-generation autonomy suite, launched in December 2025. The system uses cameras, radars, Lidar sensors, and Rivian’s own high-powered inference chips.

This technology stack makes the robotaxi business a materials story as well as a software story. Lidar-rich autonomous platforms increase demand for advanced semiconductors, optics, sensors, and specialty materials.

Minor metals such as gallium, indium, and germanium are especially relevant because they support components used in optoelectronics, power electronics, infrared sensing, and Lidar-related systems. As autonomous driving hardware becomes more complex, these materials gain strategic importance in the EV supply chain.

US Autonomy Push Follows China’s Lidar-Rich EV Trend

Uber’s move reflects a broader return of US interest in autonomous mobility. The company sold its self-driving division in 2020 after high costs and safety problems, but it is now using partnerships to re-enter the market.

Rivian’s use of Lidar places it closer to the hardware trend already visible in China, where carmakers have added Lidar to midrange EVs to differentiate vehicles in a crowded market. That trend has already drawn attention from suppliers expecting stronger demand for gallium, indium, and germanium.

The partnership also arrives as Rivian looks for new growth after deliveries declined last year. Alongside the robotaxi plan, Rivian is pushing its smaller R2 platform and expects to use LG Energy Solution’s 4695 cylindrical cells for future production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Uber Rivian robotaxi partnership shows that autonomous vehicles could reopen a new demand channel for specialty metals and sensor materials. If robotaxi fleets scale, the strategic bottleneck may shift from vehicle assembly to Lidar, chips, battery cells, and the minor metals behind advanced sensing systems.

Lynas Rare Earths Permit Extension Secures Malaysia Refinery Through 2036

Lynas Rare Earths

Lynas rare earths permit approval in Malaysia gives the Australian producer long-term operating certainty for one of the most important non-Chinese rare earth refining assets. Malaysia’s Department of Atomic Energy extended the company’s refinery operating permit for a decade to 2036, supporting continued light and heavy rare earth oxide production.

The Lynas rare earths permit extension strengthens confidence across the company’s supply chain. Lynas processes rare earth carbonates from Western Australia at its Malaysian plant, making the site a key link between Australian mining and downstream oxide production.

The decision comes as governments and manufacturers seek more secure rare earth supply outside China. For magnet makers, defense contractors, EV suppliers, and industrial technology companies, stable refining capacity is just as important as mine output.

Heavy Rare Earth Separation Becomes the Strategic Growth Area

Lynas expanded its Malaysian refinery in 2025 by building a 1,500 t/yr heavy rare earth separation circuit. The company began producing separated dysprosium and terbium at the site in May and June 2025, respectively.

This is strategically important because dysprosium and terbium are critical inputs for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets support electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defense equipment, and advanced electronics.

The Lynas rare earths permit extension allows the company to continue scaling this capability. Lynas plans to build a 5,000 t/yr heavy rare earth separation plant at the Malaysian site in phases over the next two years, deepening its role in the global rare earth value chain.

Malaysian Expansion Supports Wider Rare Earth Product Diversification

Lynas increased saleable rare earth oxide output by 19pc year on year to 6,375t in July-December 2025. This production growth highlights the importance of the Malaysian refinery as demand for separated oxides continues to rise.

The company also plans to broaden its product line. Lynas aims to produce separated samarium from April 2026, before expanding into gadolinium, yttrium, and lutetium by 2028. These additions would give the refinery a wider specialty rare earth platform.

Lynas is also working to support Malaysia’s broader rare earth sector. Its cooperation with Menteri Besar, the investment agency for Kelantan state, signals that Malaysia wants to play a larger role in rare earth processing and industrial development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Lynas permit extension is more than a regulatory approval; it is a supply-chain stability event. Western rare earth strategies depend on long-life refining assets, and Malaysia is now positioned as a critical node in heavy rare earth separation.

Stellantis Net Loss Shows Cost of Resetting EV Strategy

Stellantis EV

Stellantis net loss reached €22.3bn in 2025 as the global automaker absorbed major charges linked to a strategic reset in electric vehicles. The result highlights how quickly automakers are reassessing electrification plans as customer demand, regulation, pricing, and capital discipline change across the global auto market.

Most of the Stellantis net loss came in the second half of the year, when the company reported a €20.1bn loss. Full-year charges reached €25.4bn, largely tied to what Stellantis described as a profound strategic shift to better match customer demand and regulatory realities.

The company’s brands include Jeep, Peugeot, and Vauxhall. Net revenues fell by 2pc from 2024 to €153.5bn, as foreign exchange pressure and first-half pricing declines outweighed gains from volume and product mix.

EV Supply Chain Resizing Drives Heavy Charges

Stellantis net loss reflects the financial cost of scaling back EV ambitions after earlier expectations proved too aggressive. The company said the charges include product plan changes, EV supply chain resizing, warranty provision adjustments, and previously announced workforce reductions.

The reset shows that automakers are moving from rapid EV expansion toward more flexible technology portfolios. Stellantis now wants to focus on customers’ freedom to choose from a full range of vehicle technologies, rather than relying on a faster linear shift toward battery electric vehicles.

This shift carries major implications for battery materials, power electronics, component suppliers, and EV manufacturing investments. If automakers slow or rebalance EV programs, suppliers exposed to batteries, motors, lightweight materials, and dedicated EV platforms may face weaker demand visibility.

Automakers Rebalance Electrification and Balance Sheet Risk

Stellantis plans to return to profitable growth in 2026 after absorbing the cost of what management called over-estimating the pace of the energy transition. The company will not pay an annual dividend in 2026 and has approved up to €5bn in hybrid bond issuance to protect its balance sheet.

This balance sheet response matters because automakers need capital for multiple technologies at once. Battery EVs, hybrids, combustion platforms, software, emissions compliance, and regional manufacturing all compete for investment. The challenge is no longer simply building EV capacity; it is allocating capital across uncertain demand pathways.

For the wider automotive supply chain, Stellantis’ reset is a warning signal. Electrification remains a long-term direction, but the transition is becoming less uniform, more regional, and more financially disciplined. Suppliers must prepare for a market where hybrid, EV, and combustion demand coexist longer than earlier forecasts suggested.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Stellantis’ 2025 loss shows that the energy transition is entering a harder capital cycle. The winners will not be the companies with the boldest EV targets, but those that manage technology flexibility, supply chain exposure, and balance sheet risk with discipline.

US EV Charger Domestic Content Rule Could Reshape Charging Supply Chains

US, EV Charger

US EV charger domestic content rule could significantly reshape the charging equipment market. The US Department of Transportation has proposed raising domestic content requirements from 55pc to 100pc for federally funded EV chargers. The proposal would also end the Buy America public interest waiver introduced in 2023. As a result, the US EV charger domestic content rule could force a major reset in sourcing, assembly, and project execution.

This matters because federally funded EV chargers sit at the center of public charging expansion in the United States. If the proposal is adopted, projects in the acquisition or installation phase would need final assembly in the US and fully domestic components. That would sharply tighten compliance expectations. Therefore, the US EV charger domestic content rule would go well beyond a minor procurement change.

The proposal also arrives against a weak deployment backdrop. The Biden administration allocated $7.5bn in 2021 for EV charging stations. Yet only eight operational charging stations had been installed by June 2024. Consequently, the new rule raises a core policy question: will stricter domestic sourcing accelerate industrial buildout or slow charger deployment further?

Buy America EV Chargers Policy Now Favors Full Domestic Sourcing

Buy America EV chargers policy is clearly moving toward a far stricter interpretation. The earlier waiver allowed federally backed projects to move forward under more flexible sourcing rules. Removing that waiver would end that transition path. As a result, manufacturers and project developers would face a much narrower compliance window.

This shift could support domestic manufacturing if suppliers can scale quickly enough. US-based charger assembly, components, and sub-systems could all benefit from stronger policy protection. However, the transition may be difficult for companies still relying on mixed international supply chains. Therefore, Buy America EV chargers policy may reward a small group of prepared suppliers first.

The biggest challenge may be component depth. Final assembly in the US is one requirement. Full US-made EV charger components is a much harder threshold. That means the rule could expose weak points in power electronics, connectors, enclosures, and other charging hardware inputs. Meanwhile, compliance verification may become more complex for project owners.

Federally Funded EV Chargers Could Face a New Trade-Off

Federally funded EV chargers may now face a sharper trade-off between industrial policy and rollout speed. A 100pc domestic content rule can strengthen US manufacturing intent. But it can also reduce supplier flexibility and raise procurement friction. As a result, charger deployment timelines may face new pressure during the transition.

That trade-off matters because the current buildout has already moved slowly. Public charging expansion depends not only on funding, but also on permitting, grid connection, equipment supply, and contractor readiness. A stricter sourcing rule adds one more layer to that process. Therefore, federally funded EV chargers may become a test case for how far domestic content policy can go without harming project delivery.

The broader industrial signal is still important. Washington appears to be treating EV charging infrastructure as a strategic manufacturing category, not only a transport category. That places chargers closer to the wider US reshoring agenda. Consequently, the US EV charger domestic content rule could influence how future clean infrastructure policies are designed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This proposal matters because it turns EV chargers into a more explicit industrial policy tool. The US is no longer only trying to fund charging growth. It is trying to localize the entire equipment chain behind that growth. If domestic suppliers cannot scale fast enough, deployment may slow before it strengthens.

Antam Nickel Ore Output Surges as Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Drives Growth

Antam Nickel

Antam nickel ore output surged in 2025 to its highest level in more than a decade. The state-controlled miner produced 16.1mn wet metric tonnes of nickel ore. That was up 62pc from the previous year. As a result, Antam nickel ore output now reflects the strength of Indonesian domestic nickel demand.

The company’s sales performance was even stronger. Nickel ore sales rose 75pc year on year to 14.6mn wet metric tonnes. This shows that domestic downstream buyers absorbed much of the additional supply. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore production continues to benefit from the country’s internal processing expansion.

This matters because Antam’s ore supports more than one value chain. Its nickel ore feeds domestic class two nickel production and the company’s own ferronickel operations at Kolaka. Consequently, Antam nickel ore output remains important to both external downstream users and its internal processing strategy.

Indonesian Domestic Nickel Demand Is Reshaping Antam’s Business Mix

Indonesian domestic nickel demand is clearly driving Antam’s ore growth. The company’s production surge shows how strongly local processors continue to pull feedstock into the domestic market. This supports Indonesia’s long-term policy of deeper downstream integration. As a result, ore production is becoming more strategically valuable than before.

However, Antam’s ferronickel business moved in the opposite direction. Ferronickel output fell 20pc to 16,064t in nickel metal equivalent. Sales almost halved to 10,528t in nickel over the same period. Therefore, Antam is seeing a widening gap between ore strength and ferronickel weakness.

The company said rule changes in minimum sales pricing largely caused that decline. That means the problem was not simply demand destruction. Instead, market rules affected the economics of ferronickel sales more directly. Meanwhile, all ferronickel sales were exported, mainly to South Korea, India, and China.

Antam Battery Ecosystem Project Adds a New Strategic Layer

The Antam battery ecosystem project gives the company a stronger long-term growth story. Its joint venture with CATL began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025. That project aligns with Indonesia’s ambition to build a full downstream EV battery chain. Consequently, Antam is linking ore production more directly to higher-value battery materials.

This development matters because it expands Antam’s role beyond mining and traditional nickel products. The company is now tied more closely to Indonesia’s battery industrialization strategy. That could improve its strategic relevance even if ferronickel remains under pressure. Therefore, the Antam battery ecosystem project may become more important than short-term alloy sales.

The broader message is clear. Antam nickel ore output is rising because Indonesia’s downstream nickel model still demands more feedstock. At the same time, product mix and pricing rules are shifting value across the chain. As a result, Antam’s future may depend more on ore and battery exposure than on ferronickel alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antam’s results show how Indonesia’s nickel strategy is rewarding upstream ore suppliers tied to domestic processing. The weakness in ferronickel also shows that not every downstream segment benefits equally. If the battery ecosystem expands as planned, Antam could become even more central to Indonesia’s next nickel phase.

China export VAT rebate cuts reshape solar PV and battery exports

China Solar

China export VAT rebate cuts will raise the effective cost of exporting solar PV and batteries. China export VAT rebate cuts start on 1 April and tighten again in 2027. As a result, exporters face a faster push toward pricing discipline and higher-value products.

China will withdraw the export VAT rebate for solar photovoltaic products from 1 April. China supplies most global solar PV exports, so buyers will feel the shift quickly. Therefore, the policy targets over-expansion and the harsh price war across the sector.

Solar PV exporters face an immediate margin reset

Solar PV exporters will lose a rebate tailwind overnight. Producers will either accept lower margins or lift export prices where contracts allow. Meanwhile, weaker players may accelerate shutdowns, mergers, or capacity delays.

The change also encourages differentiation in higher-efficiency cells and modules. Companies will likely prioritize premium segments and branded channels. However, low-end volume exports will become harder to justify.

Battery exports move into a two-step phaseout

Battery export VAT rebates will fall to 6pc from 9pc between 1 April and 31 December 2026. The rebate will disappear from 1 January 2027. As a result, battery makers may adjust product mix, contract terms, and overseas inventory strategy.

China dominates battery materials and power battery supply, so the policy touches global EV and storage chains. Beijing also widened its export licensing scope to include BEVs from 1 January. Meanwhile, regulators are signaling stricter rules to standardize competition across batteries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy looks like an industrial reset, not a trade accident. It pressures excess capacity and forces a quality-led export model. However, the biggest impact will land on low-margin suppliers first.

LMFP CAM plant expansion accelerates as Hengchuang Nami commits 130,000 t/yr in China

NAMI

Hengchuang Nami will build a 130,000 t/yr LMFP CAM plant in Yinchuan, China. The LMFP CAM plant will be built in two phases inside the Yinchuan Economic Development Zone. The first phase targets 25,000 t/yr of LMFP output. The company has committed 4.8bn yuan to the LMFP CAM plant, but it has not shared a start-up date.

Hengchuang Nami has scaled LMFP output rapidly since it formed in February 2022. The company launched a 5,000 t/yr LMFP line at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, it began large-scale LMFP production in March 2023. It expanded capacity to 15,000 t/yr by the end of 2023. The company also started building a 30,000 t/yr LMFP CAM plant in Yancheng in 2024. That Yancheng project targets production by the end of 2026.

Why LMFP demand is rising across China’s battery supply chain

LMFP cathode materials raise energy density compared with standard LFP chemistry. As a result, cell makers can improve range without moving to high-nickel designs. However, LMFP chemistry often trades cycle life and power performance versus LFP. Battery makers will likely deploy LMFP in segments that value range and cost balance. Therefore, cathode producers are racing to qualify consistent LMFP performance at scale.

Chinese producers are also expanding competing LMFP and manganese-based capacity across regions. Large LFP suppliers are building LMFP lines to protect customer relationships. Meanwhile, newer entrants are using scale to compete on cost and delivery reliability. This expansion wave will intensify price competition in the next procurement cycle.

What a 130,000 t/yr build means for inputs and market competition

A larger LMFP CAM plant will tighten coordination across manganese, phosphate, iron, and lithium inputs. Producers will need stable precursor supply and strict impurity control to meet cell specifications. As a result, buyers will likely demand tighter quality documentation and faster sampling cycles. The Yinchuan project could also strengthen inland battery materials clusters with supportive logistics and energy availability.

The broader risk is simple and immediate. New nameplate capacity can outpace real consumption if EV and storage demand slows. However, scale leaders can still win by lowering unit costs and improving consistency. Therefore, execution speed and customer qualification will decide who captures long-term contracts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This LMFP CAM plant signals a shift from pilot volumes to industrial competition. However, the market will punish inconsistent quality and weak cost control. The strongest producers will lock inputs and deliver stable electrochemical performance.