China Critical Mineral Export Controls Tighten With New Enforcement Rules

China, Critical mineral

China critical mineral export controls are becoming more stringent as Beijing introduces new mechanisms to identify violations, prevent circumvention and strengthen oversight of strategic mineral shipments. The latest reporting framework takes effect on 1 July 2026 and specifically targets violations involving strategic mineral dual-use items.

China critical mineral export controls increasingly affect more than exporters themselves. Traders, processors, freight companies, overseas customers and intermediaries may need stronger documentation on product classification, end users, licensing and shipment routes as enforcement becomes more detailed.

China critical mineral export controls are also being reinforced by a separate supply-chain security investigation framework. The Ministry of Commerce can investigate foreign measures or commercial actions that it determines may damage China's industrial and supply-chain security.

The combined measures reinforce Beijing's use of regulatory oversight across critical mineral supply chains. For international buyers, compliance risk is becoming increasingly important alongside physical availability and price.

Circumvention and Third-Country Routing Face Greater Scrutiny

The new export-control reporting framework encourages organisations and individuals to report suspected violations. These include exports without licences, shipments outside approved licence conditions and exports of prohibited strategic mineral dual-use items.

The rules also explicitly address efforts to circumvent controls. They cover practices such as modifying or splitting controlled products into parts or components to avoid licensing requirements.

This is particularly important for complex industrial supply chains. Critical mineral products can move through multiple processors, traders and jurisdictions before reaching a final manufacturer.

China is therefore increasing pressure on companies to prove not only what they are exporting, but also where the material ultimately goes and how it will be used.

Authorities may provide rewards for verified reports of violations. Companies that identify potential non-compliance themselves are also encouraged to report voluntarily, with self-reporting potentially considered when penalties are determined.

The compliance burden will be especially significant for materials used in both civilian and defence applications. Rare earths, gallium, germanium, tungsten and antimony all have important roles in advanced electronics, aerospace, defence, semiconductors and industrial manufacturing.

Supply-Chain Security Rules Add Another Policy Layer

China's new supply-chain security investigation rules give the Ministry of Commerce authority to investigate certain foreign restrictions or discriminatory actions affecting Chinese industrial supply chains. The framework allows investigations into measures by foreign governments, organisations and individuals that may cause material harm or threats to China's supply-chain security.

The rules provide for investigations, information collection and other review procedures. Depending on findings, authorities may apply measures affecting trade or other economic activity.

This policy arrives alongside tighter entity-specific export controls. On 22 June, China added 10 US entities to its export control restricted list, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, prohibiting exports of dual-use items to those companies except through approved exceptions.

The significance for global critical mineral markets is clear. Supply availability is increasingly determined not only by production capacity, but also by licences, end-use approvals, destination risk and geopolitical relations.

This raises the value of alternative processing and recycling capacity outside China. Companies that rely on Chinese-origin rare earths or other strategic minerals will need stronger compliance systems and more diversified supply strategies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is turning critical mineral exports into a more closely monitored strategic supply chain rather than a conventional commodity trade. For buyers, the emerging risk is not simply whether material exists, but whether it can legally and reliably move through the entire chain.

Australia Critical Mineral Export Earnings Set to Rise on Manganese and Rare Earths

Australia, Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral export earnings will rise as manganese and rare earths scale up. The Office of the Chief Economist expects stronger output and higher export value. Australia critical mineral export earnings could reach A$5.9bn by FY2026–27. Therefore, project finance and offtake activity should intensify across key supply chains.

Manganese growth drives the next leg of export value

Australian manganese exports will anchor the earnings uplift over the next two years. Manganese production could reach 3.87mn tonnes in FY2026–27. Meanwhile, export earnings from manganese could rise to A$2.7bn by FY2026–27. As a result, steel and battery intermediates will gain a larger non-China supply option.

Higher volume alone will not secure margins. However, miners can improve pricing power with consistent chemistry and logistics reliability. Producers will also compete for shipping slots and port capacity. Therefore, downstream partners will likely seek longer contracts and inventory buffers.

US–Australia financing support reshapes investment timing

Australia rare earths exports should also rise as capacity expands. Rare earth export earnings could reach A$410mn by FY2026–27. Meanwhile, US-backed financing linked to an October critical minerals deal supports new project commitments. As a result, developers can accelerate feasibility work, construction planning, and processing partnerships.

Execution risk remains the key variable. However, metallurgical complexity and separation capacity often slow rare earth ramp-ups. Companies that secure reagents, power, and skilled labor will scale faster. Therefore, integrated processing plans will attract the strongest capital support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is building a practical path toward higher-value critical minerals exports. However, earnings growth will depend on processing capacity, not just mined tonnes. The winners will pair secure finance with repeatable operating performance.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as gallium, germanium and antimony supplies tighten

EU & China

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European stocks of key materials shrink. Officials raised the issue at the Antimony Day industry event in Brussels. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to stabilise supply for industry and defence. Therefore, the dispute is moving from trade friction to strategic risk.

China began restricting gallium and germanium exports in August 2023. It then added antimony controls in September 2024. Companies must request licences from China’s commerce ministry and disclose end-use details. However, businesses say the process can require sensitive information.

China’s exports have dropped since controls began. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January–September, down 71% versus 25,764kg in the same period of 2022. Meanwhile, European inventories have dwindled across key users. As a result, EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to reduce near-term disruption.

Defence and high-tech supply chains face the sharpest exposure

Gallium and germanium compounds support advanced defence technologies. They also enable high-frequency communications and threat-detection systems. Meanwhile, antimony links to flame retardants, alloys, and specialised applications. Therefore, supply shortages create direct industrial security concerns.

European Commission trade deputy director-general Denis Redonnet said the EU is asking China to “recalibrate” measures. He said the EU views the controls as a long-term industrial strategy. However, he said the EU is not yet at the countermeasure stage. Therefore, Brussels is signalling escalation risk while keeping diplomacy open.

EU considers countermeasures and accelerates stockpiling alliances

EU officials said countermeasures remain possible if disruptions worsen. They said any response will focus on immediate damage control and long-term resilience. Meanwhile, Europe’s decision-making spans trade, industry, energy, and diplomacy. As a result, action can move slower than in more centralised systems.

European Policy Centre chief executive Fabian Zuleeg said member states retain significant influence. The EU is also working with like-minded partners beyond the bloc. Therefore, joint purchasing, stockpiling, and alliances with mining countries are rising priorities.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a strategic lever, not a simple trade tool. Meanwhile, Europe will need faster stockpiling and qualification of alternative sources. Therefore, buyers should contract diversified supply and build audited inventories for 2026–2027.

Australia Critical Mineral Reserve Sales Target Strategic Partners Amid Trade Disruptions

Australia Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral reserve sales emerged as a cornerstone strategy following resources minister Madeline King's announcement of the A$1.2 billion ($770 million) reserve plan targeting strategic partners including the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea. The Australia critical mineral reserve sales initiative aims to generate government revenue while enabling the country to handle trade and market disruptions, particularly in response to recent Chinese export controls on rare earths, tungsten, graphite, germanium, and gallium affecting global supply chains.

Strategic Partnership Framework Addresses Geopolitical Supply Risks

Australia critical mineral reserve sales will focus on offtake agreements with trusted allies while maintaining flexibility for temporary stockpiling based on strategic and commercial considerations. The reserve design responds directly to Chinese mineral and intellectual property export controls that have disrupted global critical materials supply chains. King's announcement emphasized the program's role in managing trade disruptions while strengthening partnerships with democratic nations seeking supply chain diversification.

Meanwhile, the reserve will support domestic mining projects including rare earths and tungsten operations currently producing in Australia. Victory Metals recently produced mixed rare earth carbonates containing 38 grams per tonne of gallium in March, demonstrating domestic production capabilities for restricted materials. The government's approach combines strategic stockpiling with commercial offtake arrangements to maximize both security and revenue objectives.

Advanced Projects Position for Government Offtake Partnerships

However, Australia's critical mineral project pipeline presents substantial opportunities for reserve partnerships with six rare earth and four graphite projects in advanced feasibility stages as of October 2024. These projects await financial close decisions and may benefit significantly from Australian government offtake agreements providing revenue certainty. The Office of the Chief Economist data indicates substantial near-term production potential across multiple critical mineral categories.

Therefore, the joint public-private sector taskforce will design specific guidance around offtake pricing and operational frameworks before the 2026 program launch. This collaborative approach ensures commercial viability while achieving strategic objectives for supply chain resilience. The taskforce structure enables industry input on practical implementation challenges while maintaining government oversight of strategic priorities.

Policy Response Demonstrates Proactive Supply Chain Management

Furthermore, the Labor party's reserve pledge on April 4th directly responded to US President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, demonstrating rapid policy adaptation to changing global trade dynamics. Australia has consistently supported critical mineral developers since 2022 through mineral tax credits, loans, and grants totaling substantial government investment. The reserve represents the latest evolution in comprehensive critical minerals policy development.

As a result, Australia positions itself as a reliable alternative supplier for critical materials essential to clean energy, defense, and technology applications. The revenue-generating model ensures program sustainability while strengthening strategic partnerships with democratic allies. This approach creates competitive advantages for Australian producers while addressing global supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by geopolitical tensions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia's critical mineral reserve initiative represents sophisticated strategic thinking that combines commercial revenue generation with geopolitical supply chain management, positioning the country as a trusted alternative to Chinese-dominated critical materials markets. The program's emphasis on partnerships with democratic allies while supporting domestic project development demonstrates how resource-rich nations can leverage mineral endowments for both economic and strategic advantage in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as Europe warns of countermeasures

Critical Mineral Mine

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European manufacturers confront tighter supply chains. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to accelerate approvals and reduce stock depletion in Europe. The European Union raised the issue at an industry meeting in Brussels.

Licensing bottlenecks hit defence and tech supply chains

China’s export controls have tightened flows of strategic materials since 2023. China began licensing for gallium and germanium in August 2023, then added antimony in September 2024. European Commission officials say applicants often must share sensitive end-use information.

Fewer licences have translated into lower exports and thinner inventories in Europe. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January-September, down 71% from 2022. As a result, defence electronics and high-frequency communications face higher procurement risk.

Europe weighs countermeasures and diversification

Brussels is considering countermeasures if licensing delays deepen and disruptions spread. Denis Redonnet said the EU wants China to recalibrate the measures and speed processing. However, officials also frame the controls as a long-run industrial strategy, not a temporary dispute.

Europe is also building a broader response beyond trade policy alone. European Policy Centre chief Fabian Zuleeg said member states keep strong decision power across industry and diplomacy. Meanwhile, Brussels is exploring joint purchasing, stockpiling, and partnerships with non-EU mining countries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a front-line risk for Europe’s advanced manufacturing supply chains. Meanwhile, countermeasures will matter most if Europe pairs them with new refining capacity. Therefore, firms should model shortages alongside procurement and compliance requirements.

Australia Critical Minerals Prospectus Signals a Bigger Global Investment Push

Australian, Critical Minerals

Australia critical minerals prospectus marks a sharper push to attract global capital into domestic supply chains. Canberra has launched a new project list covering 78 projects across 14 critical minerals. The document focuses on assets at or beyond pre-feasibility stage. As a result, the Australia critical minerals prospectus is designed to turn project visibility into investment momentum.

This move matters because Australia wants to position itself as a trusted supplier in a more fragmented global market. The government launched the prospectus during meetings in Washington, DC. That timing shows the document is not only informational. Therefore, the Australia critical minerals prospectus is also a geopolitical investment tool.

The project list is selective rather than exhaustive. Australia’s broader major projects list includes 130 critical mineral projects, but many are earlier-stage assets. The new prospectus narrows the field to more advanced opportunities. Consequently, the government is trying to present investors with a more commercially credible pipeline.

Australian Critical Mineral Projects Are Being Framed for Global Capital

Australian critical mineral projects are now being packaged more directly for international investors. Only three of the 78 prospectus projects are currently under construction. That means most still need capital, partners, and execution support. As a result, the prospectus is effectively a curated financing map for the next phase of development.

This approach fits Australia’s wider strategy. Canberra has already agreed to co-invest at least $3bn with the United States in critical mineral projects. The US Export-Import Bank also indicated possible co-funding support for several Australian assets. Therefore, Australian critical mineral projects are increasingly being linked to allied capital, not just domestic policy.

Japan also sits inside this emerging framework. Australia has signaled that the next stage of its relationship with Japan should focus more heavily on critical minerals and economic security. That gives the prospectus broader diplomatic value. Meanwhile, it strengthens Australia’s role as a preferred partner in allied supply diversification.

Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve Adds a Stronger Domestic Backstop

Critical minerals strategic reserve policy is the second major pillar behind this push. Australia plans to launch a A$1.2bn reserve in 2026 to support developers. The government will secure offtake rights and then sell those rights into the market. Consequently, the critical minerals strategic reserve could reduce financing risk for selected projects.

The choice of target materials is also important. Australia plans to focus primarily on antimony, gallium, and rare earth element projects under the reserve scheme. These are precisely the kinds of materials where market concentration and geopolitical risk remain high. Therefore, the reserve is being designed around strategic vulnerability, not only export volume.

The broader export outlook supports this push. Australia expects critical mineral export earnings to rise, led largely by manganese and rare earths. That creates a stronger commercial backdrop for new investment. As a result, the Australia critical minerals prospectus arrives with both policy support and improving sector relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This prospectus is more than a project catalogue. It is a signal that Australia wants to convert geological strength into a more investable strategic minerals platform. If capital and policy now move together, Australia could deepen its role as one of the most important allied critical minerals suppliers.

Critical Mineral Stockpiles Need an Oil-Style Security Framework

IEA map

Critical mineral stockpiles are moving closer to the center of industrial security policy. The IEA says governments should apply an oil-style security framework to critical minerals. The goal is to reduce exposure to supply disruptions caused by wars, trade controls, and geopolitical shocks. As a result, critical mineral stockpiles are becoming a more urgent policy priority.

The comparison with oil is important. After the 1973 oil crisis, IEA members built coordinated emergency stock systems. That framework helped countries respond to severe supply shocks over decades. Therefore, the IEA now argues that strategic mineral reserves should serve a similar role in critical materials.

However, critical minerals are more complex than oil. These materials vary widely in physical form, storage requirements, market size, and end-use exposure. That means governments cannot simply copy the oil model without major adaptation. Consequently, critical mineral stockpiles will need more tailored design and coordination.

Critical Mineral Stockpiles Must Match Real Industrial Use

Critical mineral stockpiles will only work if countries store the right materials in usable forms. The IEA says governments should hold the forms actually consumed by industry in their regions. That means stockpiling oxides, magnets, salts, or refined products rather than only raw ores. As a result, stockpile design becomes an industrial strategy issue, not just a reserve policy issue.

The most urgent materials are already becoming clear. Rare earths, gallium, germanium, graphite, tungsten, and manganese sit near the top of the risk list. Many of these materials already face export controls or high supply concentration. Therefore, stockpiling policy is increasingly tied to real trade vulnerability.

The IEA also warns against focusing only on today’s restricted materials. Governments should prepare for future disruptions in markets with high volatility or fragile new supply. Lithium, vanadium, cobalt, and rare earths all fit that profile. Consequently, critical mineral stockpiles must look forward, not only backward.

Storage Costs and Governance Will Decide Whether the Model Works

Storage complexity is one of the biggest differences between oil and minerals. Lithium hydroxide degrades quickly in air and reacts badly to humidity. Gallium needs temperature control because of its low melting point. Therefore, stockpiling policy must account for chemistry, warehousing, and shelf life.

Costs also vary sharply by material. Minor metals such as gallium and germanium require relatively small tonnages. That makes stockholding more affordable in absolute terms. However, bulkier materials such as lithium hydroxide, synthetic graphite, and nickel sulphate become much more expensive to store at scale. As a result, stockpile strategy must balance urgency with economic practicality.

Governance may matter even more than storage. The IEA supports a public-private hybrid system with international cooperation. Countries should coordinate purchasing, release principles, and emergency deployment to avoid market distortion. Meanwhile, they can support diversification, aggregate demand, and reserve capacity for crises.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA is right to frame critical mineral stockpiles as a security issue, not just a trade issue. But the real challenge will be execution. Oil can be stored in barrels, while critical minerals require far more selective, technical, and coordinated stock strategies.

Saudi critical mineral insurance deal: Trafigura and Saudi Exim back $800mn mining prepayments

Trafigura

Trafigura signed a Saudi critical mineral insurance deal with the Saudi Export-Import Bank in Riyadh. The Saudi critical mineral insurance deal supports multi-year prepayment transactions worth about SR3bn ($800mn). As a result, Saudi Exim will insure credit risk on prepayment facilities Trafigura extends to miners.

Trafigura will start with a copper prepayment facility for an unnamed global metals producer. This Saudi critical mineral insurance deal sets a new precedent for export credit support. Meanwhile, it builds on earlier Saudi Exim financing links with Trafigura.

How the policy reshapes mining trade finance

The insurance structure reduces risk for commodity-linked prepayments. Therefore, miners can access capital without relying only on traditional bank debt. Saudi Exim also strengthens confidence in longer-tenor funding during volatile commodity cycles.

The policy can widen the buyer base for critical metals financing. However, it will require tight monitoring of collateral, deliveries, and repayment triggers. Clear governance will matter as more transactions scale.

Why Saudi Arabia wants this leverage in critical minerals

Saudi Arabia uses the Saudi critical mineral insurance deal to secure access to strategic metals. This approach aligns with Saudi Vision 2030 and industrial diversification goals. Meanwhile, it supports deeper links with resource partners across multiple regions.

The copper focus signals priority for electrification and grid demand. Therefore, the policy can help Saudi buyers compete for supply during tight markets. It can also pull more upstream projects into structured offtake pathways.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal pushes Saudi Arabia from funding into market-making for critical minerals. However, real impact depends on repeatable transactions beyond the first copper facility. If the model scales, other export credit agencies may copy it quickly.

Gallium and Scandium Waste Recovery Startup Targets Critical Mineral Bottlenecks

Supra Elemental Recovery

Gallium and scandium waste recovery is gaining a new player in the US critical minerals market. Supra Elemental Recovery launched with $2mn to advance its reusable cartridge technology. The company aims to recover metals from industrial byproducts, mine tailings, and electronic waste. As a result, gallium and scandium waste recovery is moving closer to commercial use.

This matters because gallium and scandium remain strategically sensitive materials. Western supply has tightened after Chinese export controls squeezed access to several critical minerals. That pressure has increased across defense, aerospace, and energy-related supply chains. Therefore, US gallium supply and scandium recycling are becoming more important industrial priorities.

The company’s approach also stands out because it focuses on recovery from waste streams rather than new mining alone. Supra says its system uses a reusable sponge-like cartridge to capture target metals. That model could reduce dependence on conventional upstream supply. Consequently, gallium and scandium waste recovery may become a more practical diversification tool.

Critical Mineral Recovery Technology Moves Toward Pilot Scale

Critical mineral recovery technology is becoming more valuable as concentrated supply chains remain a strategic risk. Supra’s system is designed to recover metals from several overlooked sources, including industrial waste and mine tailings. That gives the company access to materials that already exist inside the industrial system. As a result, the business is aligned with the growing push for circular supply models.

The company is also preparing for a commercial pilot in 2026. The initial funding will support further technology development and pilot readiness. That means the project is still early stage, but it is moving beyond pure research. Therefore, critical mineral recovery technology is starting to enter a more commercial phase.

The scientific foundation adds credibility to the effort. Supra’s technology builds on federally supported research at the University of Texas at Austin. That background suggests the company is building from a stronger technical base than a typical early startup. Meanwhile, it aligns with broader US interest in domestic critical minerals innovation.

US Gallium Supply and Scandium Recycling Could Gain a New Pathway

US gallium supply could benefit if Supra proves it can recover high-purity material at meaningful scale. Gallium remains important for semiconductors, electronics, and advanced industrial uses. Scandium also matters for aerospace and other high-performance applications. Therefore, a domestic recovery pathway for both metals would carry strategic value.

The business may also extend beyond these two materials. Supra is testing recovery of cobalt, lithium, and some rare earths. That suggests the company is building a platform rather than a single-metal solution. Consequently, gallium and scandium waste recovery may be only the first step in a broader critical minerals strategy.

The wider market message is clear. Waste recovery is no longer a secondary topic in strategic materials. It is becoming a serious supply option where mining and refining remain exposed to geopolitical concentration. As a result, smaller technology firms may play a bigger role in future critical mineral resilience than their scale first suggests.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This launch matters because it focuses on one of the most overlooked parts of the critical minerals chain: recoverable waste. Gallium and scandium are small-volume metals, but they create outsized pressure when supply tightens. If Supra can prove its process at pilot scale, waste recovery could become a more credible answer to critical mineral concentration.

Brazil Mineral Exports Rise as Imports Climb on Fertilizer Feedstock Demand

Brazil Mining

Brazil mineral exports increased in the first quarter of 2026, while imports rose more sharply as the country continued to rely on overseas supply for fertilizer-related minerals. National mining institute Ibram reported that mineral exports rose by nearly 1% from a year earlier, while imports increased by 15%.

Brazil mineral exports reached around 87.9mn t in the quarter, with China remaining the main destination. Iron ore accounted for nearly 54% of total shipments, reinforcing its central role in Brazil’s mining trade balance.

Brazil mineral exports continued to support a large sectoral surplus. The mineral trade surplus reached around $9.3bn in the first quarter, up 20% from the same period in 2025, supported by exports of iron ore, gold and copper.

Iron Ore, Gold and Copper Anchor Brazil’s Mining Surplus

Iron ore remained Brazil’s dominant mineral export in the first quarter. This reflects the country’s established role as one of the world’s key suppliers to steelmaking markets, especially China.

Gold and copper also contributed to export value. These metals are strategically important because gold supports financial and industrial demand, while copper is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, construction and manufacturing.

The rise in the mining trade surplus shows that Brazil’s mineral sector remains a strong foreign-exchange earner. Even modest export volume growth can generate a larger surplus when high-value commodities and stronger pricing conditions support trade values.

China’s role remains especially important. Brazilian iron ore exports depend heavily on Chinese steel demand, infrastructure activity and industrial production. Any slowdown in China can therefore affect Brazil’s mining revenue outlook.

Imports Highlight Fertilizer and Industrial Supply Dependence

Brazil imported 10mn t of mineral products in the first quarter. The US was the largest supplier, accounting for 19% of mineral imports, while Colombia and Canada each supplied about 13%.

Potassium, coal and sulphur led import flows. These materials are important for fertilizer supply and industrial activity, showing that Brazil’s mineral strength does not remove its dependence on imported inputs.

Potassium is especially important for Brazil’s agricultural sector. The country is a major global food producer, but fertilizer supply remains exposed to international trade flows and geopolitical risk.

Sulphur imports also matter because sulphur is used to produce sulphuric acid, a critical input for fertilizers, chemical processing and some mining operations. Coal imports continue to support industrial and energy-related demand.

Ibram projects mining sector investment to rise by 12.5% by 2030, reaching $76.9bn. Critical minerals could account for almost 28% of that total, or $21.3bn.

This investment outlook points to a broader shift in Brazil’s mining strategy. Iron ore will remain the export backbone, but copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, graphite and other critical minerals could gain strategic importance as global supply chains diversify.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s first-quarter trade data show a mining sector that remains strong in exports but still dependent on imported fertilizer and industrial inputs. The next opportunity lies in converting critical minerals investment into higher-value production beyond the country’s traditional iron ore base.

USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement targets defence and technology supply chains

US Strategic Metals(USSM)

USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement signals a new defence and technology supply partnership between Washington and Islamabad. The agreement links US Strategic Metals with Pakistan's Frontier Works Organisation on critical minerals production and processing. The USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement targets defence, aerospace and technology supply chains that require secure mineral inputs. As a result, both partners hope to accelerate investment into Pakistan’s emerging polymetallic resources.

Polymetallic refinery anchors USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement

The planned polymetallic refinery sits at the heart of the USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement. The partners plan a $500mn investment to design, build and operate the facility in Pakistan. Therefore, the refinery will develop and process multiple critical minerals for export and domestic use. This integrated approach can improve recovery rates and reduce logistics costs across antimony, copper, tungsten and rare earth streams.

The USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement directly targets defence and aerospace buyers seeking non Chinese supply options. Pakistan can leverage its geology and strategic location to serve US and allied markets. However, project success will require clear permitting processes and strong community engagement on environmental issues. Investors will also watch governance standards closely, given the involvement of a military engineering organisation.

Immediate exports of antimony, copper and rare earths

Immediate export commitments add urgency to the USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement. Pakistan plans rapid shipments of antimony, copper, tungsten and rare earth elements to the US. As a result, downstream processors and defence contractors could see new supply channels ahead of the refinery start up. These initial flows may help test logistics, quality control and traceability systems before full scale operations.

The USSM Pakistan critical minerals agreement also sits within a broader geopolitical context. Washington continues to seek diversified sources of critical minerals beyond China and Russia. Meanwhile, Pakistan aims to reposition itself as a strategic mining and processing hub. Therefore, sustained execution on this agreement could reshape regional critical mineral trade patterns.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement highlights how mid tier refiners and new jurisdictions enter the critical minerals race. If governance and execution remain strong, Pakistan could secure a durable role in US aligned critical mineral supply chains. However, market participants should monitor project timelines, community consent and export controls that may affect long term volumes.

UK 2035 critical minerals strategy targets domestic output and import diversification

UK, Critical Minerals

UK 2035 critical minerals strategy sets binding-style goals for supply resilience. The UK wants 10% of annual critical mineral demand met by domestic production by 2035. Meanwhile, the UK 2035 critical minerals strategy also targets no more than 60% of supply from one country.

The plan introduces a UK growth minerals list to guide investment priorities. Most of the 23 “growth minerals” also qualify as critical due to supply risk and end-use exposure. Therefore, projects that mine, process, or recycle minerals in the overlap can access tailored public support.

Faster funding and faster permits reshape the project pipeline

The UK 2035 critical minerals strategy expands state-backed finance to accelerate bankable projects. The government will channel support through UK Export Finance and a new £50mn critical mineral fund. Meanwhile, the Environment Agency will fast-track permitting and licensing for eligible projects.

This approach aims to shorten lead times across mining, processing, and recycling. However, accelerated permitting only helps if developers can still secure offtakes and equity. As a result, investors will likely favor projects with clear downstream demand signals.

Recycling and lithium targets test execution realism

The government sets a UK critical mineral recycling target of 20% of demand met from recycled products. The strategy also points to existing domestic facilities in platinum group metals, rare earth elements, and lithium. Therefore, policy makers expect recycling rules and trade provisions to close part of the gap.

The plan also targets 50,000 t/yr of domestic lithium production. However, recent project decisions highlight capital competition with allied markets. As a result, the UK will need stronger commercial incentives to keep high-value midstream capacity at home.

The strategy also backs industry-led stockpiles for the Ministry of Defence. Meanwhile, allied economies already move toward stockpiling and tighter critical mineral controls. Therefore, companies should expect more procurement-linked demand for verified, low-risk supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This strategy reads like a race between permitting speed and global subsidy intensity. However, the UK must anchor midstream projects with larger offtake and financing packages. Therefore, the winners will pair domestic policy support with export-aligned demand and recycling scale.

US-China critical minerals trade masks big strategic risks

US-China Critical minerals

The US-China critical minerals trade looks small in dollar terms but carries outsized strategic risks for key industries. The US-China critical minerals trade was worth just $2bn in 2024, only 3pc of US critical mineral imports. However, the US-China critical minerals trade underpins defence, high-tech manufacturing and energy systems that generate trillions in economic value.

Small trade volumes, large exposure to China

Macquarie research shows US critical mineral imports totalled $65bn in 2024 under the new 60-mineral list. Bulk materials like aluminium, copper and PGMs dominate the import bill and come mainly from partners such as Canada and Chile. By contrast, China supplied only $2bn, far below Canada’s $21bn or Chile’s $6.6bn.

However, China’s leverage rests in concentration, not value. It controls about 70pc of global rare earth mining and 90pc of processing. As a result, even small tonnages of Chinese exports can be mission-critical for US defence and advanced manufacturing. Any targeted export controls could therefore disrupt high-value supply chains well beyond the trade numbers.

Export controls could hit US GDP and strategic sectors

Macquarie estimates Chinese export controls on select minerals could each cut US GDP by more than $1bn in a year. Samarium restrictions show the highest impact, at an estimated $4.5bn loss, because of its critical role in defence. Meanwhile, curbs on lutetium could shave $2.1bn from GDP, mainly affecting refineries and semiconductor producers.

Controls on terbium, dysprosium and gallium would similarly reverberate across magnets, EV motors, wind turbines and high-frequency electronics. Therefore the economic risk from the US-China critical minerals trade lies in concentrated choke points, not headline trade flows. That reality is now shaping US industrial policy, stockpiling strategies and onshoring of processing capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This analysis reinforces why Washington treats rare earths and related metals as strategic assets, not simple commodities. Even modest Chinese export controls could ripple through defence, semiconductor and energy transition value chains. Expect continued moves by the US and allies to diversify sourcing, build domestic refining and expand recycling to reduce this asymmetric exposure.

Brazil Critical Minerals Deals With US Highlight Rare Earths and Lithium Strategy

Brazil Critical Minerals Deals

Brazil critical minerals deals with the US are gaining momentum as Goias and Minas Gerais move to deepen cooperation on rare earths, lithium, and other strategic minerals. The two neighboring states hold some of Brazil’s most important mineral reserves and are trying to position themselves inside the global critical minerals supply chain.

Goias has signed a preliminary agreement with the US to support cooperation around rare earth reserve development. Minas Gerais is also preparing a similar agreement focused on lithium and other critical minerals.

Brazil critical minerals deals at the state level are not legally binding and do not grant exploration rights. However, they can support research, technical training, environmental licensing coordination, and tax incentives for foreign companies.

Goias and Minas Gerais Push Beyond Raw Mineral Exports

Goias is seeking to use US cooperation to improve mineral mapping, technical capability, and project development. The state wants to move beyond raw mineral exports and build stronger capacity around higher-value mineral development.

This ambition matters because Brazil has major resource potential but remains cautious about becoming only a supplier of unprocessed critical minerals. Rare earths, lithium, and other strategic materials carry far greater industrial value when linked to processing, refining, separation, and downstream manufacturing.

Minas Gerais adds another strategic layer because it holds Brazil’s largest lithium reserves. Together, Goias and Minas Gerais could become important partners for the US as Washington looks to diversify supply chains away from China-dominated critical mineral processing.

State-Level Diplomacy Pressures Brazil’s Federal Strategy

Brazil critical minerals deals with individual states also carry political weight. Goias and Minas Gerais are led by governors more aligned with the Trump administration than Brazil’s federal government, creating a possible pressure point in national trade negotiations.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has resisted any agreement that does not include commitments to develop processing and refining capacity inside Brazil. That position reflects a wider industrial policy concern: Brazil wants mineral value creation, not only mineral extraction.

The US has already signed critical minerals agreements with several Latin American countries, including lithium producers Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina, as well as copper-rich Ecuador and Peru. Brazil remains a tougher negotiator because it has the resource base, market size, and political incentive to demand more domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil critical minerals deals show that resource diplomacy is moving from national capitals to state governments. The central question is whether Brazil can turn US interest into processing, refining, and industrial capacity rather than another raw-material export cycle.

US Moves to Diversify Metal Supply with New Legislation

US Metal

The United States is taking proactive steps to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals by introducing three new pieces of legislation. Congressman Rob Wittman, a Republican leader of the critical minerals policy working group, announced the bills this week, which aim to develop alternative supply chains for key minerals vital to technology, defense, and energy sectors.

Earth Sciences and Co-operation Enhancement Act of 2024

One of the key pieces of legislation is the Earth Sciences and Co-operation Enhancement Act of 2024, which seeks to fund international collaboration to diversify the critical mineral supply chain. This bill allocates $3 million for the 2025 fiscal year, aimed at financing research to locate new mineral resources and foster partnerships between US universities, private-sector companies, and scientists. The bill’s objective is to enhance cooperation with international partners and reduce the US's dependence on foreign-controlled resources.

Amendment to the Export Reform Control Act of 2018

Another significant bill, the Amendment to the Export Reform Control Act of 2018, proposes the introduction of export controls on black mass (recycled lithium-ion battery material) and swarf (by-products from magnet manufacturing). The legislation mandates that foreign entities seeking to export or re-export these materials will need a license. This move is designed to improve the US’s control over the recycling and recovery of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel from used batteries, a growing source of essential materials for various industries.

Securing Essential and Critical US Resources and Elements Minerals Act of 2024

The Securing Essential and Critical US Resources and Elements Minerals Act of 2024 rounds out the new legislative package by establishing a reserve to stabilize prices for critical minerals. The bill proposes a board of governors to oversee private-sector market makers who will be authorized to buy and distribute critical minerals, helping to maintain price stability and market-oriented practices. This reserve would be updated annually to ensure it covers the most critical minerals for the US economy.

These legislative moves come in response to the increasing political and economic pressure surrounding the US's reliance on China for critical minerals. Recent trade tensions have exacerbated this issue, with China suspending exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US in early December. The new bills reflect the growing urgency to establish a more resilient and independent mineral supply chain, ensuring that the US can better meet its technological and industrial needs while mitigating the risks of supply disruptions.

G7 Critical Minerals Strategy Targets Lower Dependence on Single Suppliers

G7, critical minerals

G7 critical minerals strategy will seek to reduce dependence on any single supplier outside member and partner countries for rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60% by 2030. The group aims to lower that exposure further to 50% as soon as possible.

G7 critical minerals strategy combines mining, processing, recycling and trade measures rather than focusing exclusively on new mines. Governments are considering price-gap subsidies, joint procurement, quotas and price floors to support alternative supply chains.

G7 critical minerals strategy also signals a shift toward coordinated industrial policy. More than €64bn has already been committed to 195 critical mineral projects in 2026 through public and private investment.

The objective is to build enough non-dominant supply across the value chain to reduce vulnerability to export controls, geopolitical disruption and excessive geographic concentration.

Rare Earths and Magnets Become the Core Diversification Target

Rare earths and permanent magnets are at the centre of the G7 plan because processing and downstream manufacturing remain highly concentrated.

The proposed below-60% dependency threshold introduces a measurable supply-chain objective rather than a general diversification commitment. Reaching 50% would require substantial new capacity across separation, metallization, alloy production and magnet manufacturing.

Mining alone will not be sufficient. Alternative producers must be able to convert concentrates into qualified materials that automotive, defence, aerospace, electronics and energy manufacturers can actually use.

The G7 also plans to improve transparency and traceability. Lithium and nickel will serve as the first pilot minerals, with another five minerals expected to be added each year.

Traceability can help governments identify where concentrates, refined materials and intermediate products originate. It could also support future local-content rules, procurement standards and trade measures.

Rare earths are expected to receive particular attention as the system expands because of their importance to high-performance permanent magnets.

The framework could therefore make mineral provenance increasingly important to commercial competitiveness, not simply regulatory compliance.

Price Floors and Recycling Could Reshape Critical Mineral Markets

The G7 is considering intervention on both the supply and demand sides of critical mineral markets.

Price-gap subsidies could compensate producers when market prices fall below levels needed to sustain non-dominant supply. Price floors could similarly protect strategic projects from being undermined by lower-cost production elsewhere.

Joint procurement could aggregate demand from governments and industrial consumers, providing the long-term purchase commitments needed to finance new mines and processing plants.

These measures address a fundamental problem in critical minerals. Governments want diversified supply, but private investors often struggle to finance projects that must compete against established producers with lower costs and greater scale.

However, intervention carries risks. Subsidies and price floors can increase public spending and downstream material costs if they are poorly designed.

The G7 therefore needs to balance supply security with competitiveness for manufacturers using lithium, nickel, rare earths and permanent magnets.

Recycling offers another route. Higher recovery rates can reduce demand for newly mined materials while creating domestic secondary feedstock for refiners and manufacturers.

A coordinated circular economy strategy could become especially important for magnets and batteries as larger volumes of end-of-life products become available.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The G7 is moving from identifying critical mineral risks to actively managing market structure. The decisive test will be whether coordinated demand guarantees, processing investment and recycling can create commercially sustainable alternatives rather than permanently subsidy-dependent supply chains.

Tronox rare earths project wins $600mn US-Australia export finance backing

Tronox RE project

The Tronox rare earths project has secured coordinated, conditional interest from two export credit agencies. The support totals up to $600mn from Export Finance Australia and Export-Import Bank of the United States. Therefore, Tronox now has a clearer funding pathway for rare earth processing in Western Australia.

The Tronox rare earths project targets a proposed facility in Western Australia. Tronox has finished a pre-feasibility study and will start a definitive feasibility study next. The plan centers on producing mixed rare earth carbonate with light and heavy rare earths. Meanwhile, the company will engage downstream customers to shape a bankable project structure.

Export credit agencies push a China-diversification strategy

Export credit agencies are using capital to reshape critical minerals trade flows. The US and Australia are aligning financing to diversify rare earth supply chains away from China. As a result, the agencies are signaling long-horizon support for non-Chinese processing capacity.

The coordination follows the United States–Australia framework announced in October. That framework aims to secure mining and processing supply for critical minerals and rare earths. Therefore, the Tronox rare earths project fits a broader policy push for trusted-partner supply.

Tronox can upgrade mineral sands by processing monazite in-house

Tronox already runs an integrated mineral sands footprint. Tronox produces titanium dioxide pigment, high-purity titanium chemicals, and zircon. It also mines mineral sands and produces titanium feedstocks and pig iron.

Monazite is the key rare earth lever inside that value chain. Monazite contains rare earths and can sit inside tailings streams. However, Tronox currently sells tailings materials that contain rare earth elements. A cracking and leaching facility would let Tronox refine that material in-house and lift value capture.

The strategic prize is supply chain optionality. Tronox aims to become a rare earth supplier supporting US and Australian critical mineral strategies. Therefore, the Tronox rare earths project could convert a byproduct stream into a strategic rare earth supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export credit support reduces financing risk, but it does not guarantee permits or offtake. Therefore, Tronox must lock long-term customers and prove operating costs quickly. Meanwhile, cracking and leaching execution will decide whether the project stays competitive.

ReElement Technologies Eyes $150mn Boost for US Rare Earth Refinery

ReElement Technologies

Expanding US Rare Earth Refining Capacity

ReElement Technologies has secured a letter of interest from the US Export-Import Bank for up to $150mn in funding to expand its rare earth element (REE) and critical mineral refinery in Indiana. The investment would support the Marion Advanced Technology Center, enhancing its ability to produce 99.5% purity rare earth oxides and compounds, including neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, samarium, yttrium, and gadolinium. This expansion aims to strengthen the United States’ domestic capacity to refine critical materials essential for clean energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing sectors.

The Marion facility, acquired in 2023, spans 50,000m² and is being transformed into a commercial-scale refining hub capable of producing not only rare earth oxides but also lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and transition metals. This scale positions ReElement as a potential leader in US-based REE processing.

Competing with Chinese Production Costs

ReElement also operates a 700m² Commercial Validation Facility in Noblesville, Indiana, which produces REEs and battery-critical elements. The company claims to be one of the few — possibly the only — US commercial entity capable of producing these high-purity materials at costs competitive with, or lower than, Chinese production. This capability could significantly reduce the nation’s dependency on Chinese supply chains, a key strategic priority amid rising geopolitical tensions and growing demand for REEs in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military technologies.

Industry analysts note that achieving cost parity with Chinese producers has historically been a major barrier for US refiners. If ReElement can scale production while maintaining cost efficiency, it could reshape the competitive landscape in the global REE market.

Strategic Implications for US Supply Chain Security

The potential $150mn financing aligns with Washington’s push to localize critical mineral supply chains. Rare earth elements are essential for energy transition technologies and high-performance defense systems, yet the US currently relies heavily on imports for refined materials. By expanding domestic refining capacity, ReElement could play a pivotal role in mitigating supply risks, fostering industrial resilience, and supporting US manufacturing competitiveness.

Furthermore, the partnership with the US Export-Import Bank underscores growing federal willingness to financially back strategic resource projects. This model of public-private collaboration may serve as a blueprint for accelerating critical mineral infrastructure nationwide.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ReElement’s potential funding deal is a milestone in US rare earth refining ambitions. By scaling production to commercial levels while competing with China on cost, the company could become a cornerstone of America’s critical mineral strategy. The challenge will be ensuring that operational efficiency and market demand grow in lockstep with expanded capacity.

China Strategic Minerals Competitiveness Becomes Core Priority in New Five-Year Plan

China newly released 15th Five-Year Plan

China strategic minerals competitiveness will become a central industrial priority under the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-30. Beijing has pledged to strengthen its advantages in rare earths, critical minor metals, and super-hard materials while improving the comprehensive use of key strategic mineral resources.

The plan calls for greater efforts to explore, develop, and stockpile strategic mineral resources. It also supports a new round of mineral exploration breakthroughs, showing that China wants to defend its upstream security while moving further into high-value downstream technologies.

China strategic minerals competitiveness is not only about producing more raw materials. It is increasingly about controlling refining, processing, advanced materials, and high-end manufacturing capacity across industries tied to semiconductors, aerospace, defense, batteries, and clean energy.

Rare Earths and Critical Metals Remain China’s Industrial Leverage

China already holds a dominant position across several critical mineral supply chains. The country controls most global refining capacity for rare earths and has major shares in tungsten, antimony, cobalt, and lithium processing.

This dominance gives China strong leverage in global industrial supply chains. Rare earths support permanent magnets, electric motors, wind turbines, defense systems, and precision electronics, while critical minor metals such as tungsten and antimony are essential for hard materials, flame retardants, munitions, and advanced manufacturing.

However, China still depends on imports for some high-end materials used in strategic sectors. This gap explains why the Five-Year Plan emphasizes autonomous and controllable industrial chains, rather than simple resource extraction.

Beijing Pushes From Raw Materials Toward High-End Manufacturing

China strategic minerals competitiveness now appears focused on higher value-added products. The plan does not disclose detailed measures, but its direction suggests stronger support for advanced processing, materials innovation, and domestic substitution.

This shift reflects China’s response to rising geopolitical pressure. As the US, EU, Japan, and other economies tighten critical mineral policies, Beijing is also using export licensing and industrial planning to protect its strategic position.

The broader message is clear. China wants to remain the central force in critical mineral refining while reducing its exposure to foreign restrictions on advanced materials and technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s new plan shows that critical minerals are no longer treated as commodity inputs. They are now strategic instruments for industrial control, technology security, and geopolitical leverage. This will push rival economies to accelerate non-China refining, recycling, and advanced materials capacity.

China Expands Export Controls on Critical Minerals Amid Trade Tensions

China Critical Minerals

New Restrictions on Tungsten, Indium, and Other Critical Metals

China has intensified its trade strategies by imposing new export controls on additional critical minerals. This move is seen as a countermeasure against higher tariffs recently imposed by the United States. The newly restricted materials include various metals and compounds of tungsten, indium, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. The export restrictions came into effect on February 4, as announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Impact on Global Supply Chains

This expansion of export controls follows the introduction of similar measures in 2023-24, which included key materials such as gallium, germanium, graphite, and antimony. With the recent addition, the scope now covers more crucial metals used in various industries globally. According to industry estimates, China holds a dominant share of the global supply for metals like tungsten and bismuth. For instance, it is the world’s largest producer and exporter of tungsten, controlling nearly 80% of the global market. Similarly, China is responsible for 70-80% of the world's bismuth supply, which further underscores its influential role in the global supply chain.

The new export controls will allow China greater flexibility in deciding which countries can receive these critical minerals. Market participants have indicated that the export restrictions could drive up global prices, especially for tungsten and bismuth, due to China's near-monopoly on these materials. This is likely to cause disruptions for industries that rely heavily on these metals, from electronics to energy production.

Global Repercussions and Market Shifts

The broader implications of these controls may be felt across various sectors. As China continues to tighten its grip on critical mineral exports, consumers outside of China will face challenges in securing alternative sources of supply. However, some experts suggest that this move might spur increased investments in local production capabilities in non-China markets, as countries seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies.

In the short term, global markets will likely experience higher prices for the affected minerals, particularly as exporters must follow a stringent verification process before shipping these critical materials. The procedural delays and uncertainty about permitted shipments will add to the volatility of the market.

Conclusion: Strategic Maneuver in Global Trade

China's latest export controls reflect a growing trend of resource nationalism, where nations leverage their dominance in critical industries to secure economic and political advantages. These measures come amidst heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and are designed to protect China’s national security and economic interests. As the global demand for these minerals continues to rise, China’s role in the critical metals supply chain remains pivotal, making it essential for businesses worldwide to monitor these developments closely.