Glencore Reverses Course, Retains Coal Assets Amid Strong Profit Potential

In a surprising turn of events, Glencore, the world’s largest producer of seaborne thermal coal, announced it will retain its thermal and carbon steel materials business, abandoning a proposed demerger that was first suggested in November last year. This decision comes after extensive consultations with shareholders, who ultimately recognized the value these assets bring to Glencore’s portfolio.

In its January-June report, Glencore highlighted the cash-generative capacity of its coal and carbon steel materials business, noting that it significantly enhances the quality and diversity of the company’s portfolio across both commodities and geographies. The firm emphasized that these assets would also broaden its ability to fund copper growth projects and accelerate shareholder returns.

Glencore remains the last major coal producer holding onto thermal coal assets, as other industry giants like Rio Tinto, BHP, Anglo American, and Vale have all divested or spun off their coal operations in recent years. Despite environmental opposition, Glencore is keen to underline the profitability of coal.

While the company plans to gradually wind down its thermal coal operations, it indicated that its transition away from steelmaking coal will proceed at a slower pace. Glencore's decision to retain these assets means it will keep its majority stake in Elk Valley Resources, the coking coal division of Canada’s Teck Resources, which it acquired last month.

This move suggests that Glencore and its shareholders see continued value in investing in coking coal, even as broader industry investment has slowed due to pressure from environmental groups and financial institutions. Nonetheless, the elevated coal prices in recent years have enabled key producers to self-fund growth and new projects through reinvested profits.

Glencore also reported that it sold 30 million tonnes of thermal coal in the first half of 2024, a 17% decrease from the previous year, attributed to weak European demand and high gas inventories. Additionally, thermal coal production fell by 2.8 million tonnes to 45.8 million tonnes in the same period, reflecting reduced output in Australia and South Africa.

Overall, Glencore’s coal production, including coking and semi-soft coals from Australia, Colombia, and South Africa, declined by 7% year-on-year to 50.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2024.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion doubles coal and rare earth ambitions

Ramaco

The Ramaco Brook mine expansion will more than double planned coal and critical minerals output in Wyoming. Ramaco Brook mine expansion plans lift targeted thermal coal output to 5mn short tons a year by 2029. As a result, the Ramaco Brook mine expansion places the Brook project at the centre of Ramaco’s US growth story.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion transforms Powder River coal profile

Ramaco is using the Ramaco Brook mine expansion to scale its first Powder River basin operation. The company has raised its coal production target from 2mn short tons a year to a 5mn short ton base.

This new plan assumes mine ramp-up through 2029 under supportive market conditions. However, Ramaco also highlights upside potential to 8mn–10mn short tons a year if demand justifies it. The board has authorised management to start preparations for this larger profile.

Regulatory capacity still constrains near-term production despite the ambitious Ramaco Brook mine expansion. The current permit allows up to 2.5mn short tons of sub-bituminous coal per year. Therefore, Ramaco will “actively engage” state and federal regulators to extend approvals across nearly 16,000 acres, up from about 4,500 acres today.

Ramaco Brook mine expansion boosts US rare earth and oxide output

The Ramaco Brook mine expansion also significantly upgrades the project’s critical mineral ambitions. Planned rare earth and critical mineral oxide output has risen from 1,240 short tons a year to 3,400 short tons.

This increased target supports a mine life exceeding 60 years at higher production levels. Meanwhile, Ramaco is adjusting designs for its oxide processing plant to handle greater throughput. The company expects to start operating an oxide pilot plant later this year.

Construction of a commercial-scale processing facility is scheduled to begin in 2026, aligning with the broader Ramaco Brook mine expansion timeline. At the corporate level, Brook complements Ramaco’s metallurgical coal operations in West Virginia and Virginia, which produced 3.5mn short tons in 2024. As a result, Ramaco evolves from a pure met coal producer into a hybrid coal and critical minerals company.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brook’s redesign confirms that coal basins can also be platforms for US rare earth and critical mineral strategies. If Ramaco secures permits and funding on schedule, the Ramaco Brook mine expansion could become a notable domestic source of both power coal and strategic oxides. Market participants should track permit amendments, offtake discussions and the performance of the oxide pilot plant as key de-risking milestones.

China’s Carbon Neutrality Push Expected to Reduce Demand for Raw Materials

China recently unveiled a "Special Action Plan for Carbon Reduction" aimed at enhancing carbon neutrality, energy efficiency, and reducing emissions. This initiative is anticipated to shift the steel industry towards electric arc furnace (EAF) production, thereby decreasing the demand for iron ore and coal.

The plan, announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), emphasizes upgrading existing equipment and increasing the use of EAFs to significantly reduce the consumption of raw materials and emissions by 2030.

Although the immediate impact of this policy may be limited, market participants foresee a long-term negative effect on the demand for iron ore and coal. In June, the NDRC outlined specific goals to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the steel industry by the end of 2030. These include reducing per-ton energy consumption for blast furnace and converter processes by more than 1% from 2023 levels by 2025, and reducing energy consumption per ton of steel production by over 2% from 2023 levels, along with increasing the use of waste heat and pressure by at least 3%.

To achieve these objectives, the NDRC and related agencies plan to encourage the increased use of EAFs and accelerate upgrades of energy-intensive equipment. Industry insiders predict that while the visible impact may be minimal in 2024, the long-term demand for iron ore and coking coal will decline.

A representative from a steel company in northern China noted that the short-term impact on coking coal demand might be minor, but the long-term demand is likely to decrease. Similarly, a raw material supplier in Shanxi Province pointed out that the demand for iron ore and coking coal will diminish as EAF production replaces some blast furnace output.

In light of these policies, the proportion of EAF production is expected to rise, and the Chinese government and steel industry are likely to push for increased self-sufficiency in iron ore. According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), Chinese mining companies plan to increase domestic iron ore concentrate production by 5-10 million tons in 2024 compared to 2023. CISA projects that domestic iron ore concentrate production will reach 370 million tons annually by 2025, aided by new iron ore projects.

Mysteel estimates that by 2025, total iron ore production from Chinese companies' overseas holdings will exceed 70 million tons per year, a more than 60% increase from 2020. As a result, with overall iron ore demand declining, iron ore production expansion projects are expected to continue, gradually reducing dependence on iron ore imports from this year onwards.

China Vanadium Consumption Set to Rise in 2026 as VRFB Demand Accelerates

Vanadium

China vanadium consumption is expected to rise in 2026 as vanadium redox flow batteries, steelmaking, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and denitration catalysts increase demand. The strongest growth is likely to come from VRFB-based energy storage, where projects are entering a more concentrated construction and commissioning phase.

China vanadium consumption reached 125,900t of vanadium pentoxide equivalent in 2025, up 6.1% from 2024. The market is now shifting from a steel-dominated structure toward a more diversified demand base.

China vanadium consumption still depends heavily on steel, but the share of energy storage has expanded quickly. Steel accounted for 70.9% of total demand in 2025, down from 87.9% in 2021. Energy storage rose to 20% of total use from only 4% over the same period.

This change is strategically important for vanadium producers. Demand is no longer driven only by construction steel, rebar and alloy additions. It is increasingly tied to long-duration energy storage, grid stability, batteries, catalysts and higher-value industrial applications.

VRFB Storage and Steel Demand Drive the 2026 Consumption Outlook

Vanadium demand from VRFB energy storage is expected to increase sharply in the second half of 2026. China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued a notice on 30 January to improve the generation-side capacity price mechanism, supporting longer-duration storage.

This policy direction matters because VRFB technology is better suited to long-duration applications than many short-duration battery systems. VRFBs offer long cycle life, high safety, deep-discharge capability and easier electrolyte reuse.

China’s VRFB installations in 2026 are preliminarily estimated at 4-5GWh. This forecast reflects projects already under construction and the availability of high-purity vanadium for electrolyte production.

That installation level would require around 32,000-40,000t of V2O5 equivalent. This would represent an increase of 8,000-16,000t from the previous year, making VRFBs the largest source of incremental vanadium demand.

The growth builds on rapid progress in 2025. VRFB projects with completed electrolyte filling totalled about 3,037.5MWh last year, up 1,027.3MWh from 2024. China’s cumulative VRFB installed capacity reached about 6,064.5MWh by the end of 2025, with an average duration of 4.12 hours.

The market is now moving from pilot-stage expansion to larger system deployment. As more long-duration storage projects reach construction and commissioning, vanadium electrolyte demand could become more predictable.

Steel remains the largest end-use sector. Vanadium demand from China’s steel industry is expected at 92,000-95,000t in 2026, up 3,000-6,000t from 2025.

The increase is tied to stronger demand from machinery, energy, shipbuilding, automotive and rail sectors. These ferro-vanadium end-use segments are expected to grow by around 1.2% in 2026.

The steel demand signal was already visible in the first quarter. Steel-sector vanadium consumption reached around 22,600t, up 1,800t from a year earlier.

Rebar could also provide support. Output of higher-grade steel reinforcement bar is expected to rise as infrastructure investment accelerates. Production licence rules for construction rebar took effect on 1 April, while quality traceability requirements have expanded.

These rules should raise the share of vanadium-nitrogen micro-alloyed hot-rolled rebar. That would support demand for vanadium-nitrogen alloy, especially in higher-strength construction products.

The 2025 steel data show a more complicated picture. Vanadium consumption in the steel sector reached around 89,300t, up 1,700t from 2024. However, vanadium-nitrogen alloy consumption fell by 3.8% to 36,690t because rebar’s share of vanadium use declined.

China’s rebar output fell to 186.3mn t in 2025, down 4.5% from a year earlier. This reduced vanadium demand from traditional construction steel.

Ferro-vanadium performed better. FeV50-equivalent consumption rose by 10.4% to around 39,985t, supported by stronger downstream output in several industrial sectors.

Automotive production reached 34.778mn units in 2025, up 9.8%. Civil steel shipbuilding totalled 52.295mn deadweight tonnes, up 18%. Excavator output rose by 17% to 379,643 units.

Machine tool output also increased. Metal-cutting machine tool production rose by 9.7%, while metal-forming machine tool output increased by 7.2%. These sectors helped offset weakness in rebar.

Vanadium intensity also rose. China’s vanadium use per tonne of crude steel increased to 51g of vanadium metal equivalent in 2025 from 48g in 2024. Rebar intensity edged up to 152.5g, while other steel products rose to 26.6g.

LFP cathode materials will provide another smaller but fast-growing demand source. Vanadium consumption from LFP cathodes is estimated at 2,000-2,500t in 2026, assuming a typical 0.2% V2O5 addition rate.

That would be up by 1,000-1,500t, representing growth of 100-150%. The base remains small, but the rate of increase is significant.

Denitration catalysts should also support demand. Chemical-sector vanadium consumption is expected at around 7,000t in 2026, up about 500t, or 7.7%. Demand will be supported by catalyst replacement, new coal-based thermal power projects and higher sulphuric acid output.

In 2025, chemical-sector vanadium use was around 6,500t, up 200t from 2024. Titanium-alloy-related consumption fell by around 400t, tracking weaker Chinese titanium product exports.

Supply Growth Remains Limited by Feedstock and Cost Pressure

China’s vanadium supply remains highly concentrated, but output growth is not straightforward. The country accounted for 68.8% of global vanadium capacity in 2025 and 72.4% of global production.

China’s total vanadium capacity reached 277,600t in 2025. Actual output was 163,900t, down 900t from 2024.

The production base is dominated by vanadium slag. Output from vanadium slag reached 141,300t in 2025, broadly unchanged from the previous year.

Some producers reduced supply. Xinjiang Da’an and Yunnan Yukun did not produce, cutting combined output by about 8,000t. Other producers, including Chengsteel, Desheng and Dagang, raised output by around 15%, offsetting part of the loss.

Stone-coal-based vanadium output fell more sharply. Production declined to 7,600t in 2025, down 2,600t from 2024, as lower prices left all stone-coal producers loss-making.

This route remains highly price-sensitive. At current price levels, only one large-scale stone-coal producer is operating, with output of around 100-120 t/month of ammonium metavanadate on a V2O5-equivalent basis.

A Shaanxi-based producer with capacity of 300-350 t/month has been suspended since early 2026 because of safety issues. It is unlikely to restart in the first half.

Vanadium flake prices rose to 83,000-84,000 yuan/t in March, prompting some stone-coal producers to consider restarts. However, current prices still appear insufficient to drive a large supply response.

Even when prices approached 110,000 yuan/t in 2023, stone-coal-based output only reached about 11,000t. This suggests that 2026 output growth from stone coal will likely remain limited.

Secondary resources are becoming more important. Vanadium output from spent catalysts and other secondary sources rose to 15,100t in 2025, up 1,900t from 2024.

This included about 6,700t from alumina by-product recovery, up around 1,700t. Output from spent catalysts and petroleum residues stayed broadly stable despite lower vanadium prices.

The reason is co-product economics. Vanadium is often recovered alongside molybdenum and tungsten from secondary feedstocks. Higher molybdenum and tungsten prices supported operating rates and helped keep secondary recovery viable.

Secondary output is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2026. Feedstock availability is relatively stable, but China’s restrictions on solid-waste imports since 2017 limit the potential for major raw material growth.

Vanadium slag-based supply may edge higher in 2026, but feedstock constraints create uncertainty. Qinhuangdao Baigong completed a 10,000 t/yr V2O5 line in early 2026 and is ramping toward normal operations. Its 2026 output guidance is around 5,000t.

However, tighter domestic feedstock availability could offset this addition. Vanadium-titanium magnetite supply in the Panzhihua area is particularly constrained, potentially cutting output by about 4,500-5,000t of V2O5 equivalent.

Producers in Sichuan and Yunnan may need to source vanadium-titanium magnetite from the Chengde area or increase imports to keep output in line with 2025. A northeastern steelmaking-based vanadium producer has also reduced vanadium-titanium magnetite imports since December 2025.

This creates a cautious supply outlook. China’s vanadium output may edge higher in 2026, but the increase depends on whether new slag-based capacity can offset feedstock tightness and further weakness in stone-coal production.

The market therefore faces a potential demand-led tightening risk. VRFB demand is rising quickly, steel demand is improving modestly and smaller sectors are growing. Supply growth, meanwhile, remains constrained by feedstock, cost pressure and limited secondary resource availability.

For vanadium producers, the key opportunity lies in high-purity electrolyte-grade material. VRFB demand requires reliable vanadium quality, stable supply and long-term availability. Producers that can supply battery-grade vanadium will be better positioned than those focused only on metallurgical demand.

For steel users, the issue is price exposure. If VRFB demand absorbs more vanadium units, ferro-vanadium and vanadium-nitrogen alloy buyers could face stronger competition from the energy storage sector.

For energy storage developers, the issue is raw material security. VRFB growth depends on enough high-purity vanadium to support electrolyte production. Supply constraints could affect project economics if demand accelerates faster than conversion capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s vanadium market is entering a new phase where steel remains the base, but VRFBs set the growth direction. The strategic tension in 2026 will be whether constrained supply can keep pace with energy storage demand without pricing steel users out of the market.

US DOE $355mn critical minerals production funding targets coal ash and industrial by-products

DOE

US DOE $355mn critical minerals production funding will accelerate minerals recovery from waste streams. US Department of Energy will support projects that extract minerals from industrial and coal by-products. The US DOE $355mn critical minerals production funding also supports testing and scale-up infrastructure. Therefore, the program targets faster domestic supply chain buildout.

The funding package splits into two major tracks. DOE will offer up to $275mn for pilot programs. These pilots target mine tailings, impoundments, and coal ash recovery projects. Meanwhile, DOE will provide up to $80mn for field sites to test mining technologies. As a result, the program links extraction innovation with real-world validation.

Pilot programs target coal ash, tailings, and impoundments for minerals recovery

Pilot programs will focus on existing waste streams with recoverable mineral content. Developers can process coal ash and legacy mine materials for critical minerals. However, projects must prove economics, permitting pathways, and consistent feed chemistry. Therefore, successful pilots will prioritize modular processing and robust sampling plans.

This approach can reduce environmental liabilities while creating feedstock. It can also shorten timelines compared with greenfield mines. Meanwhile, recycled and secondary sources can help buyers meet ESG and traceability goals. As a result, minerals recovery from coal by-products could become a strategic supply pillar.

Field sites aim to de-risk mining technology for commercial deployment

DOE will fund field sites to test mining technologies at operational scale. These sites can validate throughput, recovery rates, and operating costs. However, field data must translate into bankable designs for lenders and offtakers. Therefore, the $80mn track addresses the commercialization gap.

The new funding fits a broader onshoring push. DOE previously announced a $975mn initiative to strengthen domestic critical minerals supply chains. Meanwhile, manufacturers want reliable US-linked sources for batteries, magnets, and defense systems. As a result, US DOE $355mn critical minerals production funding supports upstream resilience and technology readiness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Secondary recovery can deliver faster tonnes, but it needs disciplined project selection. Meanwhile, winners will pair metallurgy with predictable permitting and community engagement. Therefore, the US should treat these pilots as scalable templates, not one-off demos.

Dry Bulk Growth to Stall in 2025 Amid Chinese Supply Glut, Star Bulk Warns

Star Bulk

Dry bulk shipowner Star Bulk projects that global dry bulk tonne-mile demand will grow by only 0.9% in 2025, a significant deceleration from previous years. This slowdown reflects weakening demand for coal and iron ore shipping—two pillars of the sector.

Chinese Supply Surplus Signals Lower Import Volumes

Throughout 2024, China ramped up domestic production of coal, iron ore, and grains. As a result, import demand is expected to drop in 2025. Despite Beijing's stimulus efforts in late 2024, Star Bulk believes they are insufficient to shift dry bulk trade flows meaningfully in the short term. High stockpiles and oversupply remain the key headwinds.

Additionally, Chinese dry bulk exports have surged by 19.5% over the past two years, but this increase doesn't fully offset the slowdown in inbound volumes, particularly for raw materials.

Coal Tonne-Miles Set to Contract After Record Growth

In 2024, global tonne-mile demand for coal grew by 6.5%, spurred by increased thermal electricity generation and strategic stockpiling in China. However, Star Bulk expects a 2.7% contraction in 2025, as domestic coal production outpaces consumption in recent quarters.

This shift will likely depress seaborne coal trade, especially to Asia, further impacting the Capesize and Panamax segments.

Iron Ore Imports Face Growth Ceiling Amid Inventory Buildup

Likewise, iron ore tonne-mile demand, which grew 5.3% in 2024, is projected to rise only 1% in 2025. Chinese iron ore stockpiles and domestic production have both increased significantly, curbing demand for imports.

However, Star Bulk anticipates some relief by late 2025 as new high-grade Atlantic mines begin production. These sources could eventually replace low-quality Chinese supply, thereby enhancing tonne-mile figures in the long run.

Despite the softer macro outlook, Star Bulk's financial performance remains strong. The company reported a Q4 2024 net profit of $42.4 million, compared to $39.7 million in Q4 2023. Its diverse fleet of 151 bulk carriers—including Newcastlemaxes, Capesizes, Kamsarmaxes, and Ultramaxes—positions the firm to respond dynamically to evolving global trade flows.

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production from coal ash and industrial by-products

Department Of Energy (DOE)

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production by targeting waste streams that already sit onshore. US Department of Energy will support projects that recover minerals from coal and industrial by-products. US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production to reduce import exposure and accelerate domestic processing. Therefore, the policy shifts attention from new mines to faster, lower-footprint feedstocks.

The funding prioritises pilot programs that extract critical materials from legacy waste. Eligible streams include mine tailings, impoundments, and coal ash. Meanwhile, these materials often concentrate metals that traditional operations left behind. As a result, recovery projects can shorten timelines compared with greenfield mining.

$275mn targets recovery pilots from existing waste streams

US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production with up to $275mn allocated to pilot programs. These pilots will test separation, leaching, and upgrading routes at practical scales. However, pilots must prove consistent feed quality and stable recovery rates. Therefore, developers will focus on sampling, process control, and cost discipline.

Coal ash and industrial residues also offer a logistics advantage. The materials already sit near rail, power, and industrial infrastructure. Meanwhile, permitting can be simpler when projects remediate existing sites. As a result, projects can position recovery as both supply creation and environmental cleanup.

$80mn backs field sites for commercial mining technology validation

DOE will also fund up to $80mn to develop field sites that test mining technologies. These sites can validate equipment and methods for commercial deployment. Meanwhile, field demonstrations help investors compare performance across geologies and waste types. Therefore, they can accelerate adoption for scalable recovery platforms.

These funding opportunities also connect to a larger onshoring effort. DOE previously announced a broader initiative to invest $975mn in domestic critical minerals supply chains. However, capital alone will not guarantee output. As a result, successful applicants will pair funding with clear offtake paths and realistic commissioning plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Waste-stream recovery is becoming the quickest route to new domestic critical mineral units. Meanwhile, the winners will be teams that standardise processes across many sites. Therefore, US to fund $355mn for critical minerals production could seed repeatable “mining-as-remediation” business models.

China steel industry stabilisation plan targets growth, discipline and greener output

China Steel

China’s new China steel industry stabilisation plan signals a renewed push to manage growth, capacity and pricing discipline. The government aims for around 4pc added value growth in 2025-26 while phasing out inefficient mills and banning new crude steel capacity. As a result, Beijing is trying to balance supply and demand through market-based elimination rather than another blunt production crackdown.

The China steel industry stabilisation plan prioritises competitive, higher-quality producers over weaker players. Authorities will curb “unfair competition” and “disorderly” low-price behaviour that has weighed on margins across the sector. Therefore, the plan supports consolidation around strong mills and seeks a more sustainable pricing environment for both long and flat steel products.

At the same time, the plan highlights technological upgrading, high-grade steel, and raw material security as core pillars. It calls for expanded investment to modernise production lines, accelerate low-carbon technologies and deepen the green energy transition. This innovation agenda links the China steel industry stabilisation plan directly to national strategies on industrial upgrading and decarbonisation.

Market reacts as China steel industry stabilisation plan lifts sentiment

Steel futures and spot prices reacted quickly to the announcement, even as underlying demand stayed soft. January rebar futures rose by 0.85pc to Yn3,185/t, and more than 10 mills lifted ex-works rebar offers by Yn30-50/t. However, physical trading volumes in rebar and flat products remained subdued despite the firmer sentiment.

Coking coal markets showed a more cautious response. January coking coal on the Dalian exchange closed just 0.12pc higher at Yn1,217.5/t. Many participants are still assessing how strictly the China steel industry stabilisation plan will be enforced and what it means for blast furnace operating rates. For now, sentiment in domestic coking coal remains stable rather than bullish.

Recent production data underline why Beijing is acting now. China’s crude steel output in August fell by 0.7pc year on year to 77.36mn t. January-August crude steel output dropped 2.8pc to 671.81mn t, reflecting weaker construction and real estate demand. In 2024, the top five producing provinces saw crude steel output fall 3.2pc to 522.73mn t, still accounting for 52pc of national output.

Supply-side reform echoes and the road ahead for China’s steel sector

President Xi Jinping has already signalled a political push against “disorderly low-price competition” and outdated capacity. Many market participants see the new plan as an echo of the 2015-17 supply-side reforms that aggressively cut overcapacity. However, most small, inefficient mills were already removed in that earlier cycle, leaving fewer obvious targets today.

Therefore, the next phase will likely focus on quality, emissions and efficiency rather than headline tonnage cuts. The China steel industry stabilisation plan emphasises precise capacity and output control instead of blanket production caps. That approach favours large, integrated groups with the capital to invest in green technologies, premium steel grades and digitalisation.

At the same time, Beijing wants to maintain enough capacity to support infrastructure, manufacturing and strategic industries. Balancing overcapacity risks with growth and employment remains a delicate task. How effectively the China steel industry stabilisation plan navigates this tension will shape global iron ore, coking coal and finished steel flows over the next two years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is shifting from a crude tonnage focus to a curated steel ecosystem built around fewer, stronger, greener champions. For global metals markets, that means more policy-driven volatility in the short term, but a likely structural tilt toward higher-value steel exports and more disciplined capacity at home. Suppliers of iron ore, coking coal and low-carbon steel technologies should all watch how fast policy turns into enforcement on the ground.

Teck Resources Lowers 2024 Copper Production Forecast Amid Operational Challenges

Teck Resources

Canadian mining company Teck Resources has revised its 2024 copper production guidance downward by 7% at the midpoint, citing unplanned maintenance, labor shortages, and logistical upgrades. The updated forecast sets production at 420,000-455,000 metric tonnes (t), down from the previously expected 435,000-500,000t.

Key Factors Behind the Revision

• Highland Valley Copper Mine: Labor tightness and delays in implementing new haul truck systems contributed to the downgrade.
• Quebrada Blanca Mine: Maintenance issues in grinding and flotation circuits further impacted the forecast.

Refined zinc production guidance was also lowered to 240,000-250,000t, following a fire at Teck’s electrolytic zinc plant in September.

Operational Highlights

Despite the revised outlook, Teck’s third-quarter copper production surged to 115,000t, a 60% increase year-on-year.

• Quebrada Blanca: Produced 52,500t, up 184% from the same quarter in 2023 as ramp-up efforts continued. Full capacity is expected by the end of 2024.
• Highland Valley: Output increased 24% to 25,400t, thanks to higher mill throughput and ore production, although Lornex pit delays dampened progress.
• Antamina: Copper production grew 12% to 111,500t, supported by higher recoveries and copper-only ore treatment.
• Carmen de Andacollo: Production rose 24% to 11,500t, benefiting from improved mill throughput and recovery rates.

Zinc Production Updates

• Zinc in Concentrate: Increased 3% year-on-year to 158,000t, while sales fell 10% to 268,000t.
• Red Dog Mine: Output rose 14% to 142,500t, driven by improved mill availability.
• Trail Operations: Refined zinc production decreased 3% due to the fire and rail labor disruptions.

Financial Performance

Teck reported a C$792 million ($571 million) loss in the third quarter, a sharp contrast to the C$268 million profit recorded during the same period in 2023.

Strategic Moves and Long-Term Focus

Teck has sold its 77% stake in EVR, its steelmaking coal business, to Glencore, allowing the company to focus on ramping up copper production. Medium- and long-term projects include:

• Extending the Highland Valley mine life.
• Exploring Minas de San Nicolas and Zafranal for future mining operations.

All major projects are in the permitting phase, with decisions expected by mid-to-late 2025.

China's Magnesium Sector Faces Oversupply and Price Challenges Despite Rising Output

China's Magnesium

China’s magnesium industry, which accounts for a staggering 83% of the world’s magnesium production, is grappling with challenges of oversupply and volatile prices, according to insights shared at the 27th annual conference of the China Magnesium Association (CMA) held in Xi'an.

Decade-Long Capacity and Utilization Issues

Over the past decade, China’s magnesium production capacity has ranged between 1.3 million and 1.5 million tonnes per year (t/yr). However, actual output has lagged behind at 800,000 to 1 million t/yr, resulting in an average utilization rate of just 63%, according to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA).

Dependence on Traditional Sectors

The sector’s primary consumption is still tied to traditional industries like aluminium alloys, steel, and titanium sponge. Attempts to diversify into new applications, such as magnesium alloy construction sheets, consumer electronics, and new energy vehicles, have been slow. This limited innovation has contributed to an oversupply and pushed magnesium prices to near production costs.

Shifting Trends in Titanium Sponge Production

The use of magnesium in titanium sponge production has declined due to its environmental impact and price volatility. According to Jiang Baowei, lead engineer at Pangang Vanadium and Titanium Resources, many producers now use in-house magnesium obtained through electrolysis of titanium tetrachloride residue, reducing environmental pollution and stabilizing costs. In 2023, China’s titanium sponge production capacity reached 220,000 t/yr, supported by 250,000 t/yr of in-house electrolytic magnesium production.

Rising Production Amid Challenges

Despite these hurdles, China’s magnesium production rose to 702,900 tonnes during January-September 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, fueled by resumed production in Shaanxi, the country’s largest magnesium-producing region. Output in Shaanxi grew by 14%, while neighboring Shanxi saw a 10% rise. Shaanxi alone houses 50 producers with a combined capacity of 678,000 t/yr, including 34 producers in Fugu County.

CMA’s Call to Action

Ge Honglin, CNMA president, urged the industry to emphasize magnesium’s benefits as a light structural metal and explore emerging markets like hydrogen storage and new energy vehicles. He also called for price stabilization to ensure affordability and reduce market volatility.

Sustainable Production Gains

The industry has made strides in energy efficiency, reducing the energy required to produce 1 tonne of magnesium from 5.2 tonnes of standard coal in 2012 to just 4 tonnes in 2023. Over the same period, magnesium consumption in structural materials more than doubled to 192,100 tonnes, contributing to a sharp rise in overall consumption, up by 76% since 2012.

China’s magnesium sector continues to grow in global prominence, but it faces an urgent need to diversify its applications, reduce environmental impacts, and stabilize pricing to maintain its leadership in the global market.

India Gas Supply Crunch Raises Steel Supply Risk as Mills Cut Output

India Steel

India gas supply crunch is beginning to disrupt the country’s steel sector, with secondary producers and gas-dependent mills facing rising operational pressure. The crisis has intensified because India sources 67% of its LNG imports from the Middle East, where the US-Israel war with Iran has created major supply disruption.

India gas supply crunch is hitting smaller induction furnace-based steelmakers first. Several producers are rationing available gas, reducing output, and struggling to meet customer requirements. The government has also prioritized domestic natural gas supply for households, which has further tightened availability for industrial users.

India gas supply crunch now threatens more than steelmaking alone. It is affecting cutting operations, maintenance work, downstream galvanizing, packaging materials, plastics, propane, ammonia, limestone logistics, and imported thermal coal costs. As a result, the steel value chain faces a broader cost and supply shock.

Gas-Based Steelmakers and Secondary Mills Face Uneven Pressure

Gas exposure varies sharply across India’s steel industry. Smaller induction furnace-based mills in Mandi Gobindgarh, Punjab, have already reduced production where they rely on piped natural gas. Some manufacturers in the region can meet only about half of customer requirements, while smaller mills in Gujarat are fulfilling about 70% of demand.

Secondary steel producers that use scrap and direct-reduced iron are under particular pressure. These mills often operate with thinner margins and less procurement flexibility than large integrated producers. Rising gas costs, limited availability, and weaker scrap economics can quickly force production cuts.

The pressure is not uniform across regions. Producers in Jalna, Maharashtra, said they had not yet cut production because of gas shortages. However, imported thermal coal prices have affected most secondary mills, and imported scrap has become less viable. This means even coal-based mills are not fully protected from the wider input-cost shock.

Gas-based DRI operations face one of the clearest risks. ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India is viewed as vulnerable because about 65% of its 9mn t/yr steelmaking capacity uses the gas-based DRI-electric arc furnace route. Market participants expect a potential near-term supply reduction if gas disruption worsens.

Downstream Steel and HRC Prices Face New Volatility

The downstream steel sector is also exposed to the gas shortage. Galvanized steel producers rely heavily on propane, and some integrated mills have already reduced galvanized output marginally while conserving existing gas supplies. Smaller re-rollers are at greater risk of curtailing or stopping operations.

The disruption has also reached trade and service centers. Some plate suppliers are unable to fulfill pending orders because their cutting processes depend on gas. This shows how energy shortages can spread beyond melt shops and rolling mills into finishing, processing, and distribution.

Steel prices may remain firm if input costs stay elevated. Indian domestic hot-rolled coil prices have already risen sharply, with 2.5mm-4mm HRC assessed at Rs54,300/t ex-Mumbai on 6 March, up 17% from mid-December 2025. Higher gas, coal, propane, ammonia, and logistics costs could keep pressure on finished steel prices.

However, demand risk is also rising. Major steel-consuming industries may face the same gas constraints, which could reduce their production and lower steel procurement. This creates a difficult market balance: supply costs are rising, but demand traction remains uncertain as buyers wait for clearer conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s steel sector is facing an energy-security stress test. The biggest risk is not only lower steel output, but a chain reaction across DRI, galvanizing, cutting, re-rolling, and downstream demand.

China’s Gallium Expansion Slows as Germanium Supply Diversifies: Key Market Insights

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA)

The Chinese gallium (Ga) production expansion has encountered significant hurdles, while germanium (Ge) supply sources are increasingly diversifying to mitigate feedstock shortages. According to Li Yilan, a senior analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), the pace of new gallium production projects in China has slowed due to decreasing Ga content in bauxite, the primary feedstock for gallium extraction. As a result, many production projects have been delayed, and some that did launch have scaled back or halted operations altogether. However, the diversification of germanium supply chains signals a shift in how the industry is adapting to global demand pressures.

Slowdown in Gallium Production Expansion

China’s gallium output for 2024 is forecast to reach 950 tons, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, the growth rate of gallium production capacity has slowed considerably. In particular, China’s gallium capacity rose by 40% this year, but the full realization of this capacity has been hindered by difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock from bauxite. The lower Ga content in bauxite has made it harder for producers to maintain a consistent supply of gallium, forcing many projects to delay their timelines or reduce output.

The demand for gallium, particularly from the magnet manufacturing sector (which consumes 46% of the metal), has increased gradually over the past two years. Additionally, the rise in demand for gallium oxide phosphor in electronics has offset the reduced demand from the solar cell sector. This demand shift has been a key factor in the slight increase in Chinese gallium exports, which rose by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 48.4 tons. This increase is partly due to disruptions in last year’s exports caused by the country’s export control schemes, which limited overseas shipments.

Germanium Supply Diversification and Emerging Markets

While gallium production faces slowdowns, germanium’s supply chain is showing signs of diversification, especially as producers look beyond China for feedstock. Tight feedstock availability in China has prompted several producers to seek alternative sources for germanium. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines, has begun exporting germanium concentrates to Belgium. This move is part of a broader trend of extracting germanium from non-traditional sources, such as copper-cobalt ores in the Congo and coal and nickel in Indonesia. These new extraction routes are expected to increase the overall supply of germanium.

China’s germanium output is projected to exceed 200 tons in 2024, up from 190 tons the previous year. Strong demand from the infrared and solar cell sectors, which use germanium in various applications, has driven prices upward in recent months. However, the rapid rise in prices has caused a significant drop in exports. Between January and September 2024, China exported just 18.8 tons of germanium, a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Higher prices and more stringent export license procedures have pushed international buyers to explore other sources for germanium, further boosting the trend toward diversified supply.

Conclusion

The global markets for gallium and germanium are undergoing significant shifts, with production challenges in China affecting gallium’s expansion and leading to a diversification of germanium supply chains. While gallium demand remains steady, especially from magnet and phosphor industries, production issues are slowing the pace of growth. On the other hand, germanium's increasing extraction from countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia is easing the reliance on Chinese supply. The metal markets are adapting, and these dynamics will likely continue to influence pricing and production trends in the coming years.

Titanium Scrap Demand and Prices Expected to Rise in 2025, Driven by Boeing Recovery and Melter Expansions

Titanium Scrap

The outlook for titanium scrap is becoming increasingly positive as demand is expected to surge in the second half of 2025. This rise is driven by a recovery in aerospace manufacturing, particularly from Boeing, and planned expansions in titanium melting capacity. These factors are expected to have a significant impact on the titanium scrap market, which has faced challenges throughout 2024.

Boeing and Aerospace Recovery

After a year marked by disruptions in production schedules and supply chain bottlenecks, aerospace manufacturers are expecting a rebound. In 2024, the anticipated increase in titanium scrap demand did not materialize as expected, largely due to production missteps at Boeing and delays in Airbus’s ramp targets. However, a recovery in Boeing's production, particularly of the 737 MAX and the 787 Dreamliner, is poised to fuel higher scrap consumption.

Boeing’s 737 MAX production, which was temporarily halted due to a seven-week strike, is set to resume, providing a strong signal for the titanium scrap market. The 787 Dreamliner, which contains about 15% titanium compared to 6% for the 737 MAX, will also contribute to increased demand. Despite facing parts shortages earlier in 2024, Boeing has indicated that it will resolve these issues by the end of the year, paving the way for normalized production rates in 2025.

Titanium Melters’ Expansions and Ingot Production

Another key factor influencing the titanium scrap market is the expansion of titanium melters’ capacity. With new ingot production facilities scheduled to come online in 2025, there is a clear indication that titanium melters will be looking to source more aerospace-grade scrap to feed their new furnaces. Companies such as ATI, Titanium Metals (TIMET), and Perryman are investing heavily in capacity expansions to meet growing demand for titanium products.

ATI’s expansion at its Richland, Washington, operations will increase melting capacity by 35% over 2022 levels, while TIMET’s new plant in Ravenswood, West Virginia, is expected to produce 33 million lbs of ingot annually once fully operational. Perryman, meanwhile, is ramping up its facility in Coal Center, Pennsylvania, increasing its melting capacity by 16 million lbs to 42 million lbs annually. These expansions are expected to create more competition for available titanium scrap, potentially driving up prices.

Impact of Tariffs and Political Uncertainty

However, the market remains uncertain due to potential changes in U.S. trade policies under President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could impose duties of up to 60% on imports from China, 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 20% duty on all other imports, have raised concerns among market participants. Such tariffs would increase the cost of titanium scrap imports, particularly from regions like Europe and Japan, which could be devastating for the industry if they are implemented.

Titanium scrap imports to the U.S. have already increased significantly in 2024, reaching 23,578 metric tonnes through October, surpassing the previous year’s total. While the threat of tariffs remains uncertain, it could create additional market disruptions that would further complicate the scrap supply chain.

Conclusion

While 2024 proved to be a challenging year for the titanium scrap market, 2025 is shaping up to bring a significant rebound. The resumption of Boeing's production and continued expansions in titanium melting capacity should drive stronger demand for aerospace-grade scrap. However, political uncertainty surrounding tariff policies remains a major wildcard that could affect the broader market dynamics. As the industry braces for these changes, stakeholders are carefully watching for signs of recovery and growth.

Australia's Export Revenues from Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Projected to Decline in FY2025

Australia's export revenues from iron ore and metallurgical coal are forecasted to decline significantly in FY2025 due to a general decrease in international prices, despite increased port inventories in China and rising demand from emerging markets.

The Australian Department of Industry, Science, and Resources recently released its "Q3 2024 Resources and Energy Report," predicting that export prices for iron ore will fall to $96 per ton in 2024, $84 per ton in 2025, and $77 per ton in 2026.

For the fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 - March 2025), Australia's iron ore export revenues are expected to drop by 17.4% from AUD 138 billion in the previous year to AUD 114 billion. Further decline is anticipated in FY2026 (April 2025 - March 2026) with revenues projected to be AUD 102 billion.

Earlier reports had estimated FY2025 iron ore export revenues to be AUD 107 billion. However, improved economic indicators from China, Australia's largest export market, have led to increased port inventories and improved market sentiment, prompting a revision of the forecasts.

Nonetheless, recent price declines pose challenges. Iron ore prices fell by $7-10 per ton in June compared to the previous month. As of June 28, iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 819 yuan per ton ($112.7 per ton), while on the Singapore Exchange it was $105.65 per ton.

The price drop is attributed to weakening steel demand in China during the off-season and increased port inventories. The most significant negative factor in the international iron ore market is the excess supply of iron ore not absorbed by China's existing demand.

Contrary to the Australian government's projections, HSBC Holdings, a British multinational commercial bank, anticipates that international iron ore prices will reach $100 per ton in 2024. The bank believes that strong demand from emerging markets will prevent a significant price drop despite China's real estate crisis.

Capital Economics, a British economic research firm, predicts that iron ore prices will fluctuate between $99 and $100 per ton this year. The firm forecasts prices at $100 per ton in Q2 and Q4, and $99 per ton in Q3, with a drop to $85 per ton by the end of next year. The firm attributes the expected decline to prolonged recessions in major economies and weak global steel demand.

For FY2025, metallurgical coal export revenues are projected to fall by 31.1% from AUD 61 billion in the previous year to AUD 42 billion.

While Australia's production of metallurgical coal is expected to increase during this period, the decline in export prices will likely reduce export revenues. Metallurgical coal export prices are anticipated to drop from $264 per ton in 2024 to $228 per ton in 2025, and further to $208 per ton in 2026.

The Australian government and mining industry forecast that reduced demand from China, the largest importer, along with adverse weather conditions such as La Niña, could negatively impact production. However, they do not foresee the price decline triggering a crisis for Australian mining companies.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Ramaco critical minerals stockpile reshapes Wyoming rare earth strategy

Ramaco

Ramaco critical minerals stockpile plans in Wyoming signal a new US approach to rare earth security. The Ramaco critical minerals stockpile will be built at the Brook mine as part of a larger expansion. Ramaco will stockpile rare earth and critical mineral oxides alongside rising coal output from the same site.

The company recently lifted projected rare earth and critical mineral oxide output to 3,084t per year. It expects a pilot oxide plant to start later this year, with commercial construction targeted for 2026. Resource estimates now point to 1.4mn tonnes of total rare earth oxide within the permitted area. The deposit includes gallium, scandium and germanium, and likely dysprosium, terbium, neodymium and praseodymium.

Building the Ramaco critical minerals stockpile at Brook mine

Ramaco plans to extend mining across its full 15,800 acres at Brook as exploration advances. As a result, the Ramaco critical minerals stockpile could grow far beyond initial oxide projections. The firm will seek permits to cover larger resource zones and unlock additional rare earth tonnage. Conventional surface mining can access claystones and shales above and below the sub-bituminous coal seams.

The strategic critical minerals terminal will serve both government buyers and private industrial customers. It will manage long-term stockpiling, storage and inventory services for the mine’s future output. Ramaco also plans tolling services for third-party producers, positioning Brook as a regional processing hub. Meanwhile, coal production is projected to rise from 1.81mn t/yr to 4.54mn t/yr, with further upside. At higher rates, the mine life could exceed sixty years, supporting infrastructure and stockpile investments.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Ramaco critical minerals stockpile underscores how US coal regions are repositioning as strategic materials hubs. If Ramaco secures financing and permits, Brook could become a benchmark model for integrated coal and rare earth operations. Downstream buyers will watch closely to see whether stockpiling translates into reliable, competitively priced domestic supply.

High-Purity Iron Plant Targets US Rare Earth Magnet Supply Gap

Hertha Metals

High-purity iron is emerging as a hidden bottleneck in the US rare earth magnet supply chain as new defense sourcing rules approach. Houston-based Hertha Metals plans to build a 10,000 t/yr plant in Texas to produce high-purity iron used in neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets.

The project targets a less visible vulnerability in magnet manufacturing. US policy has focused heavily on rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium, but NdFeB magnets also require high-purity iron. Hertha Metals says about 90% of this material is currently produced in China.

The timing is strategically important. Updated Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations are set to take effect on 1 January 2027, restricting Chinese-origin rare earth magnets and constituent materials in covered US defense systems. That rule could force defense contractors, magnet makers and upstream material suppliers to rebuild supply chains around non-China sources.

Hertha Metals plans to break ground later this summer. The company says its Texas plant will become the first domestic producer of high-purity iron for this application, positioning the project at the intersection of magnet security, steelmaking technology and US industrial policy.

DFARS Rules Put Magnet Inputs Under Supply Chain Pressure

The 2027 DFARS deadline changes the strategic value of upstream magnet materials. Compliance will not depend only on where final magnets are assembled. It will also depend on the origin of constituent materials used in defense-related systems.

This creates a direct opportunity for domestic high-purity iron. NdFeB magnets require neodymium, praseodymium and often dysprosium or terbium for performance, but iron remains the major base component. If high-purity iron remains China-dependent, US magnet supply chains could still face compliance risk even if rare earth oxides or metals are sourced elsewhere.

Hertha Metals is trying to address that gap with its FLEXHERS process, short for flexible fuel hydrogen electric reduction smelting. The process combines electric arc furnace technology with natural gas or hydrogen to produce iron and steel.

The company says the technology can use lower-grade ores and iron ore fines that are difficult to process economically through conventional blast furnace routes. This could widen the domestic feedstock base and reduce dependence on imported high-purity iron.

Hertha currently operates a one-tonne-per-day demonstration plant in Conroe, Texas. It describes the site as the largest demonstration-scale single-step steelmaking facility in the US. Ore is sourced domestically from Minnesota, and the pilot facility is already producing material that meets customer specifications.

The planned high-purity iron facility will also produce trial steel products. Hertha sees the project as a stepping stone toward broader iron and steelmaking capacity, with a target of reaching roughly 500,000 t/yr of production within four to five years.

Cost competitiveness will be critical. Hertha says it does not plan to rely on a domestic supply premium. Instead, it aims to compete economically by replacing metallurgical coal with natural gas and electricity while using lower-cost ore feedstocks.

This claim matters because strategic materials projects often struggle when policy support is stronger than market economics. If Hertha can produce competitively without relying on premium pricing, the company could build a more durable position in both defense and commercial supply chains.

Hertha Metals CEO Laureen Meroueh

Domestic Iron Production Links Magnets, Electrical Steel and Clean Manufacturing

High-purity iron has strategic importance beyond NdFeB magnets. The material can also support electrical steel used in transformers, electric vehicle motors and other electromagnetic applications. These sectors are becoming more important as grid investment, electrification and domestic manufacturing policy expand.

The project also fits a wider shift in iron and steel markets. Traditional blast furnace production depends heavily on metallurgical coal and higher-emission processing routes. Meanwhile, demand for higher-grade iron inputs suitable for lower-carbon steelmaking is expected to rise as producers shift toward cleaner technologies.

Hertha’s process aims to sit inside that transition. By using electricity, natural gas or hydrogen, the company is positioning FLEXHERS as a lower-carbon alternative to legacy ironmaking. The ability to process lower-grade ore and fines could also help revive domestic iron production without requiring only premium feedstocks.

The US steel industry has increasingly focused on scrap-fed electric arc furnaces. That model supports recycling and lower emissions, but it does not fully solve domestic iron supply for high-purity applications. Magnets, electrical steel and advanced components often need controlled chemistry that scrap alone cannot easily provide.

This is where Hertha’s strategy becomes industrially relevant. The company is not only proposing another steel plant. It is targeting a specific materials gap between critical minerals policy, rare earth magnet manufacturing and advanced steelmaking.

Competition from subsidized overseas producers remains a risk. Hertha says it can compete on cost, but Chinese industrial support and below-cost exports could still challenge domestic producers. This is why policy, procurement rules and long-term customer commitments may become important even if the production technology works.

The company has not disclosed financing details, future fundraising plans or offtake agreements. That leaves open questions about capital structure, customer readiness and the pace of commercial scale-up. However, the 2027 DFARS deadline gives the project a clear market catalyst.

The broader implication is that rare earth magnet supply security cannot be solved by rare earth mining alone. The full chain includes ore, separation, metal conversion, alloying, magnet manufacturing and supporting inputs such as high-purity iron. Any weak link can create dependence.

Hertha Metals is betting that the next phase of US critical materials policy will recognise that reality. If the company can scale production, secure customers and maintain cost discipline, high-purity iron could become a small but essential piece of the domestic magnet supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hertha Metals highlights a critical point often missed in rare earth policy: magnet security depends on more than rare earths. High-purity iron, electrical steel and alloy inputs will become strategic materials if US defense and electrification supply chains must move away from China.

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters Secures A$2bn Australian Support for Renewable Aluminium

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters will receive major government support as Australia moves to keep aluminium production viable during its energy transition. Canberra and Queensland will each provide A$1 billion over 10 years to support the 500,000 t/yr aluminium smelter at Gladstone.

The funding will be linked to production credits for aluminium made with renewable energy. In return, Rio Tinto will underwrite nearly A$7.5 billion in new energy generation and transmission in central Queensland.

Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters is strategically important because aluminium smelting is highly power-intensive. The agreement shows how Australia is using public funding to prevent industrial closures while shifting heavy industry away from coal-fired electricity.

Renewable Power Becomes Central to Aluminium Smelter Survival

The support package reflects the growing pressure on Australian metals processors. Rising energy costs and the phase-down of coal-fired generation have made long-term power security a critical issue for smelters, refiners, and steelmakers.

The plan to shift Rio Tinto Boyne Smelters toward renewable power was first flagged in 2024. Rio Tinto also indicated last year that the 1.68GW Gladstone coal-fired power plant could close on 31 March 2029.

BSL produced 370,000 tonnes of aluminium in 2025, below its 500,000 t/yr nameplate capacity. It remains Australia’s second-largest aluminium smelter after the 600,000 t/yr Tomago facility in New South Wales, which is also expected to receive major taxpayer support to remain open beyond 2028.

Australia Uses Industrial Policy to Protect Metals Capacity

Australian aluminium smelter support is becoming part of a wider industrial policy response. Federal and state governments have already pledged major funding for Whyalla steelworks, Glencore’s Mount Isa copper smelter, and Nyrstar’s smelters in Hobart and Port Pirie.

The Boyne agreement also connects aluminium production with carbon regulation. The facility is registered under Canberra’s safeguard mechanism and reported covered scope 1 emissions of 921,558t CO2e for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year, below its baseline of 931,303t CO2e.

Rio Tinto owns 73.5% of Boyne, while YKK Aluminium, UACJ Australia, and Southern Cross Aluminium hold the remaining stakes. The ownership structure reinforces the smelter’s importance to both domestic and regional aluminium supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is effectively deciding that aluminium smelting is too strategic to lose during the energy transition. The real test will be whether renewable power support can preserve industrial capacity without creating a permanent subsidy model.

Glencore 1H losses and debt widen as trading and mining profits fall

Glencore

Glencore 1H losses and debt increased on weak prices and lower output. The group cited US trade policy shifts and Middle East risk. Glencore 1H losses and debt also reflected an $859mn Cerrejon impairment.

Markets, prices, and earnings drivers

Commodity markets looked well supplied in the half. Therefore benchmark coal and crude prices dropped sharply. Industrial Ebitda fell 17pc on lower coal prices and weaker copper production. Marketing Ebitda decreased 6.5pc as trading margins narrowed. Management warned the full effects of geopolitics are still coming.

Balance sheet and cost actions

Glencore’s net debt rose 30pc to $14.5bn at 30 June. The rise followed lower funds from operations and higher interest costs. Net finance costs increased 19pc as rates stayed elevated. However, Glencore guided debt to “meaningfully reduce” by year end. The firm identified $1bn in recurring industrial cost savings by 2026.

Profits, impairments, and outlook

An $859mn impairment at Cerrejon deepened the reported loss to $665mn. Last year’s first half loss was $233mn, underscoring the swing. Meanwhile, copper production fell, adding pressure to industrial earnings. As a result, Glencore 1H losses and debt remain a central focus. Management will prioritize cash discipline and capital allocation. Investors will watch working capital unwind and price momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s diversified model helps, but softer coal and copper can overwhelm marketing resilience. Watch diesel spreads, copper TCRCs, and coal curves for recovery signs. Execution on the $1bn cost program and faster working capital release could stabilize leverage.